Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ORLENE-22
in Mexico
03 Oct 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ORLENE-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 101 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (03 Oct 12:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 101 km/h 0.3 m 129 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 158 km/h 0.4 m 539 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

158 km/h

Up to 30 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico25,918 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Sep 2022 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 29 Sep 2022 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 29 Sep 2022 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 29 Sep 2022 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 30 Sep 2022 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 30 Sep 2022 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 30 Sep 2022 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 30 Sep 2022 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 01 Oct 2022 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 01 Oct 2022 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 01 Oct 2022 12:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 01 Oct 2022 18:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 02 Oct 2022 00:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 02 Oct 2022 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 02 Oct 2022 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 02 Oct 2022 18:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 03 Oct 2022 00:00 144 Few people
- - - - Mexico
GREEN 18 03 Oct 2022 06:00 137 3 thousand
- - - - Mexico
GREEN 19 03 Oct 2022 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico77,862 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala5,583,470
+
Mexico4,946,388 
Guatemala637,082 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Sep 2022 00:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 29 Sep 2022 06:00 203 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 29 Sep 2022 12:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 29 Sep 2022 18:00 80 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 30 Sep 2022 00:00 139 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 30 Sep 2022 06:00 107 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 30 Sep 2022 12:00 87 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 30 Sep 2022 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 01 Oct 2022 00:00 102 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 01 Oct 2022 06:00 164 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 01 Oct 2022 12:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 01 Oct 2022 18:00 124 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 02 Oct 2022 00:00 179 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 02 Oct 2022 06:00 201 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 02 Oct 2022 12:00 272 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 16 02 Oct 2022 18:00 133 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 03 Oct 2022 00:00 186 3 thousand -
- - - - Mexico
Blue 18 03 Oct 2022 06:00 132 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 19 03 Oct 2022 12:00 286 80 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico, Guatemala




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in La Palmita, Mexico. This height is estimated for 03 Oct 2022 12:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
03 Oct 2022 12:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.3
03 Oct 2022 12:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.3
03 Oct 2022 12:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.3
03 Oct 2022 12:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.3
03 Oct 2022 12:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 12:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 12:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 16:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 12:00 San Blas Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 12:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 13:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 12:00 Barron Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 12:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 13:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 13:00 La Lima Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 15:00 La Verde Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 15:00 El Tulate Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 15:00 Tahuesco Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 15:00 Nueva Venecia Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 15:15 Huitzitzil Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 15:15 Barra Madre Vieja Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 15:15 Tecojate Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 15:15 San Jose Rama Blanca Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 15:15 Sipacate Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 14:30 Monteon Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 16:45 Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 16:45 Salina Cruz Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 16:45 Lagarto Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 13:15 Marmol Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 13:15 Florida Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 12:45 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 12:00 City Arroyo United States  0.1
03 Oct 2022 12:00 Port Mansfield United States  0.1
03 Oct 2022 12:00 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.1
03 Oct 2022 17:00 Arista Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 16:00 Los Cobanos El Salvador  0.1
03 Oct 2022 16:00 Acachapa El Salvador  0.1
03 Oct 2022 16:00 El Nispero El Salvador  0.1
03 Oct 2022 16:00 Hacienda Taquillo El Salvador  0.1
03 Oct 2022 17:45 Barra de Santiago El Salvador  0.1
03 Oct 2022 17:45 Buenos Aires El Salvador  0.1
03 Oct 2022 17:45 Metalio El Salvador  0.1
03 Oct 2022 17:45 Acajutla El Salvador  0.1
03 Oct 2022 17:45 Ocos Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 12:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 12:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 12:45 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 15:45 La Concepion Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 15:45 Barra de San Jose Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 18:00 Puerto de San Benito Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 16:45 Boqueron Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 13:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 16:00 Acapan Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 16:00 Champerico Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 16:30 La Barrita Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 16:30 San Jose Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 16:30 Iztapa Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 16:00 El Naranjo Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 12:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 17:15 Astillero Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 17:15 San Pedro Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 17:15 Barra de la Gabina Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 17:15 Las Champas Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 17:45 Buenavista Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 13:45 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 15:15 El Roble Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 12:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 16:30 El Marques Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 17:30 Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 16:30 Garrapateras Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 16:30 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 17:00 Solo Dios Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 17:15 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 17:15 La Majada Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 13:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 17:15 Huajapan Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 16:00 El Chico Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 16:15 Marquelia Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 16:15 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 18:00 El Pumpo Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 18:00 Agua Dulce Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 17:45 La Avellana Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 16:15 Dimas Mexico  0.1