Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ORLENE-22
in Mexico
02 Oct 2022 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ORLENE-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 126 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (03 Oct 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 126 km/h 0.2 m 133 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 158 km/h 0.4 m 539 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Oct 2022 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico3,294 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Sep 2022 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 29 Sep 2022 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 29 Sep 2022 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 29 Sep 2022 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 30 Sep 2022 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 30 Sep 2022 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 30 Sep 2022 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 30 Sep 2022 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 01 Oct 2022 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 01 Oct 2022 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 01 Oct 2022 12:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 01 Oct 2022 18:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 02 Oct 2022 00:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 02 Oct 2022 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 02 Oct 2022 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 02 Oct 2022 18:00 126 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall

539 mm

Up to 4 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Oct 2022 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico4,374 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala4,603,483
+
United States41 
Mexico3,195,646 
Guatemala1,407,795 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Sep 2022 00:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 29 Sep 2022 06:00 203 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 29 Sep 2022 12:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 29 Sep 2022 18:00 80 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 30 Sep 2022 00:00 139 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 30 Sep 2022 06:00 107 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 30 Sep 2022 12:00 87 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 30 Sep 2022 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 01 Oct 2022 00:00 102 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 01 Oct 2022 06:00 164 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 01 Oct 2022 12:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 01 Oct 2022 18:00 124 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 02 Oct 2022 00:00 179 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 02 Oct 2022 06:00 201 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 02 Oct 2022 12:00 272 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 16 02 Oct 2022 18:00 272 4 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico, Guatemala




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 03 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Oct 2022 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
03 Oct 2022 00:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
02 Oct 2022 19:15 Novillero Mexico  0.2
02 Oct 2022 19:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
02 Oct 2022 22:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 00:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
02 Oct 2022 19:15 Altata Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 19:15 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 19:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 19:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 00:00 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 00:00 La Choya Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 00:00 City Arroyo United States  0.1
03 Oct 2022 00:00 Port Mansfield United States  0.1
03 Oct 2022 00:00 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.1
02 Oct 2022 19:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 19:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 19:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 18:30 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 00:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 21:15 La Lima Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 19:00 San Blas Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 19:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 22:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 19:00 La Boca Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 18:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 18:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 22:15 Campeche Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 19:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 18:30 Florida Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 18:30 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 19:45 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 20:00 Dimas Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 20:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 19:45 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 18:45 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 18:45 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 18:00 Huitzitzil Guatemala  0.1
02 Oct 2022 18:00 Barra Madre Vieja Guatemala  0.1
02 Oct 2022 18:00 Tecojate Guatemala  0.1
02 Oct 2022 18:00 San Jose Rama Blanca Guatemala  0.1
02 Oct 2022 18:00 Sipacate Guatemala  0.1
02 Oct 2022 22:15 Balantanche Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 19:30 La Paz Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 19:30 Rosario Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 20:45 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 20:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 20:15 Barron Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 18:00 La Concepion Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 18:00 Barra de San Jose Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 21:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 19:15 Datilito Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 18:30 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 18:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 18:30 Monteon Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 21:15 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 20:00 Marmol Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 20:15 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 19:15 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 22:00 Neyac Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 20:15 Quinones Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 19:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 20:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 19:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1