Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for ORLENE-22 in Mexico from 29 Sep 2022 03:00 UTC to 04 Oct 2022 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ORLENE-22

in Mexico

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ORLENE-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	79 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (30 Sep 00:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	79 km/h	0.2 m	139 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	158 km/h	0.4 m	539 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

158 km/h

Up to 110 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Sep 2022 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	112,276

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	29 Sep 2022 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2022 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Sep 2022 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	29 Sep 2022 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	30 Sep 2022 00:00	169	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Sep 2022 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico	1,122,628
50-100 mm	Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador	3,494,289	+
	Mexico	1,440,193
	Guatemala	2,048,816
	El Salvador	5,279

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	29 Sep 2022 00:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2022 06:00	203	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Sep 2022 12:00	161	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	29 Sep 2022 18:00	80	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	30 Sep 2022 00:00	503	1.1 million			-	-	-	-	Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Victoria, Mexico. This height is estimated for 30 Sep 2022 00:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 30 Sep 2022 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	30 Sep 2022 00:15	Victoria	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2022 00:15	Balchacah	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2022 03:30	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2022 06:00	Bayview	United States	0.2
	30 Sep 2022 06:00	Jamaica Beach	United States	0.2
	30 Sep 2022 06:00	Bacliff	United States	0.2
	30 Sep 2022 06:00	Nadeau	United States	0.2
	30 Sep 2022 06:00	Texas City Junction	United States	0.2
	30 Sep 2022 06:00	Bayou Vista	United States	0.2
	30 Sep 2022 06:00	San Leon	United States	0.2
	30 Sep 2022 06:00	Texas City	United States	0.2
	30 Sep 2022 06:00	Anderson Ways	United States	0.2
	30 Sep 2022 06:00	Virginia Point	United States	0.2
	30 Sep 2022 06:00	Galveston	United States	0.2
	30 Sep 2022 06:00	Port Bolivar	United States	0.2
	30 Sep 2022 06:00	Fort Travis	United States	0.2
	30 Sep 2022 06:00	Flake	United States	0.2
	30 Sep 2022 00:45	Ciudad del Carmen	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2022 03:15	Arrozal	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2022 00:15	Boca Nueva	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2022 02:30	Paso Real	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2022 05:15	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 03:15	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 00:30	Smith Point	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 00:30	Elmgrove	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 00:30	Crystal Beach	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 00:30	Patton	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 00:15	Bolivar Peninsula	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 00:15	Caplen	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 00:15	Gilchrist	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:45	Hoskins	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:45	Peterson Landing	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:45	Port Morris	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:45	Red Fish Cove	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:45	Bay Harbor	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:45	Sea Isle	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:45	Hitchcock	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 00:00	High Island	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:15	Gulf Park	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:15	Bryan Beach	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:15	Valasco Heights	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:15	Freeport	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:15	Quintana	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:15	Surfside	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:15	Surfside Beach	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:45	Mims	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:30	Hoskins	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 02:15	Carancahua	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 02:15	El Campo Club Community	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 02:15	Camp Hulen	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 02:15	Palacios	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 02:15	Collegeport	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 02:15	Simpsonville	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 02:15	Citrus Grove	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 00:00	Boqueron	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 00:00	Pasito de la Senora	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:45	Indianola	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:45	Olivia	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:45	Port Alto	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:45	Port O'Connor	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:30	Chinquapin	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 02:00	Matagorda	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 00:00	La Concepion	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:30	Buen Pais	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:30	Alvarado	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:30	Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 02:00	Acachapa	El Salvador	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 02:00	El Nispero	El Salvador	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 02:00	Hacienda Taquillo	El Salvador	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:15	Barra de la Gabina	Guatemala	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:15	Las Champas	Guatemala	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:15	Barra de Santiago	El Salvador	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:15	Buenos Aires	El Salvador	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 01:15	Metalio	El Salvador	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:00	Alamo Beach	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:00	Point Comfort	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:00	Magnolia Beach	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 03:30	Buenavista	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 00:00	Solo Dios	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:00	Maudlowe	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:00	Tivoli	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:00	Spanish Village	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:00	Austwell	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:00	Seadrift	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 00:00	Sabine	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 00:00	Sabine Pass	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:45	Ingleside	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:45	Kenney Lane West Colonia	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:45	Port Ingleside	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:45	Indian Trails Lane Colonia	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:45	Country Acres Colonia	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:45	Country Estates Colonia	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:45	Aransas Pass	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:45	Estes	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:45	Mustang Beach	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:45	Port Aransas	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:45	Rockport	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:45	Shell Ridge	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:45	Copano Village	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 05:45	Fulton	United States	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 00:00	Barra de San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 06:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 06:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2022 06:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.