Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for ORLENE-22 in Mexico from 29 Sep 2022 03:00 UTC to 04 Oct 2022 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ORLENE-22

in Mexico

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ORLENE-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	79 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (29 Sep 13:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	79 km/h	0.2 m	161 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	158 km/h	0.4 m	539 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

158 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	29 Sep 2022 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2022 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Sep 2022 12:00	169	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico	358,987
50-100 mm	Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador	1,421,623	+
	Mexico	454,643
	Guatemala	954,970
	El Salvador	12,010

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	29 Sep 2022 00:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2022 06:00	203	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Sep 2022 12:00	549	360 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Bayview, United States. This height is estimated for 29 Sep 2022 13:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	29 Sep 2022 13:45	Bayview	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:45	Bacliff	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:45	Nadeau	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:45	Texas City Junction	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:45	Bayou Vista	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:45	San Leon	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:45	Texas City	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:45	Anderson Ways	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:45	Virginia Point	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:45	Galveston	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:45	Port Bolivar	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:45	Smith Point	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:45	Fort Travis	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:45	Flake	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:30	Elmgrove	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:30	Crystal Beach	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:30	Patton	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:30	Bolivar Peninsula	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:30	Caplen	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:30	Gilchrist	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:15	High Island	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 16:15	Jamaica Beach	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 15:00	Buen Pais	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 15:00	Alvarado	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 15:00	Conejo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 12:45	Red Fish Cove	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 12:45	Bay Harbor	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 12:45	Sea Isle	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 12:45	Hitchcock	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:30	Sabine	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:30	Sabine Pass	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:15	Hoskins	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:15	Peterson Landing	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 13:15	Port Morris	United States	0.2
	29 Sep 2022 12:45	Quintana	United States	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 12:45	Surfside	United States	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 12:45	Mims	United States	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 12:45	Surfside Beach	United States	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 12:00	Johnson's Bayou	United States	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 12:30	Hoskins	United States	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 12:30	Bryan Beach	United States	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 12:30	Valasco Heights	United States	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 12:30	Freeport	United States	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 12:00	Constance Beach	United States	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 12:00	Peveto Beach	United States	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 14:15	Tonala	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 16:45	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 12:00	Victoria	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 12:00	Balchacah	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 13:15	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 13:15	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 16:15	Huitzitzil	Guatemala	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 16:15	Barra Madre Vieja	Guatemala	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 16:15	Tecojate	Guatemala	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 16:15	San Jose Rama Blanca	Guatemala	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 16:15	Sipacate	Guatemala	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 16:00	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 13:00	Ciudad del Carmen	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 12:15	Gulf Park	United States	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 14:45	Red Bluff	United States	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 14:45	Seabrook	United States	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 12:00	Boca Nueva	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 17:15	La Concepion	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 17:15	Barra de San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2022 13:30	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.