Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ORLENE-22
in Mexico
29 Sep 2022 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ORLENE-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (29 Sep 21:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 65 km/h 0.2 m 80 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 158 km/h 0.4 m 539 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

158 km/h

Up to 30 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2022 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico32,129 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Sep 2022 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 29 Sep 2022 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 29 Sep 2022 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 29 Sep 2022 18:00 166 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2022 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico410 
100-250 mmMexico7,764 
50-100 mmMexico, Guatemala, El Salvador2,549,155
+
Mexico1,253,617 
Guatemala1,279,096 
El Salvador16,441 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Sep 2022 00:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 29 Sep 2022 06:00 203 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 29 Sep 2022 12:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 29 Sep 2022 18:00 437 8 thousand
- - - Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 29 Sep 2022 21:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2022 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
29 Sep 2022 21:45 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
29 Sep 2022 21:45 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
30 Sep 2022 00:00 Victoria Mexico  0.2
30 Sep 2022 00:00 Balchacah Mexico  0.2
29 Sep 2022 22:15 Ciudad del Carmen Mexico  0.2
29 Sep 2022 18:00 Bayview United States  0.2
29 Sep 2022 18:00 Jamaica Beach United States  0.2
29 Sep 2022 18:00 Bacliff United States  0.2
29 Sep 2022 18:00 Nadeau United States  0.2
29 Sep 2022 18:00 Texas City Junction United States  0.2
29 Sep 2022 18:00 Bayou Vista United States  0.2
29 Sep 2022 18:00 San Leon United States  0.2
29 Sep 2022 18:00 Texas City United States  0.2
29 Sep 2022 18:00 Anderson Ways United States  0.2
29 Sep 2022 18:00 Virginia Point United States  0.2
29 Sep 2022 18:00 Galveston United States  0.2
29 Sep 2022 18:00 Port Bolivar United States  0.2
29 Sep 2022 18:00 Fort Travis United States  0.2
29 Sep 2022 18:00 Flake United States  0.2
30 Sep 2022 00:00 Boca Nueva Mexico  0.2
29 Sep 2022 20:30 Buen Pais Mexico  0.1
29 Sep 2022 20:30 Alvarado Mexico  0.1
29 Sep 2022 20:30 Conejo Mexico  0.1
29 Sep 2022 22:00 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:15 Hoskins United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:15 Peterson Landing United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:15 Port Morris United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:15 Red Fish Cove United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:15 Bay Harbor United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:15 Sea Isle United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:15 Hitchcock United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 21:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
29 Sep 2022 21:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
29 Sep 2022 21:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:45 Smith Point United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:45 Elmgrove United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:45 Crystal Beach United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:45 Patton United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:45 Bolivar Peninsula United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:45 Caplen United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:45 Gilchrist United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:30 Boqueron Mexico  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:30 Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.1
29 Sep 2022 20:45 Solo Dios Mexico  0.1
29 Sep 2022 21:00 Buenavista Mexico  0.1
30 Sep 2022 00:00 High Island United States  0.1
30 Sep 2022 00:00 Paso Real Mexico  0.1
30 Sep 2022 00:00 Arrozal Mexico  0.1
29 Sep 2022 22:00 Sabine United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 22:00 Sabine Pass United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 19:45 La Concepion Mexico  0.1
29 Sep 2022 19:45 Barra de San Jose Mexico  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:00 Gulf Park United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:00 Bryan Beach United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:00 Valasco Heights United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:00 Freeport United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:00 Quintana United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:00 Surfside United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:00 Surfside Beach United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 22:00 Johnson's Bayou United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 22:00 Constance Beach United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 22:00 Peveto Beach United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:00 Mims United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 21:45 Holly Beach United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:15 Huitzitzil Guatemala  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:15 Barra Madre Vieja Guatemala  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:15 Tecojate Guatemala  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:15 San Jose Rama Blanca Guatemala  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:15 Sipacate Guatemala  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:00 Hoskins United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 21:45 Cameron United States  0.1
30 Sep 2022 00:00 Indianola United States  0.1
30 Sep 2022 00:00 Olivia United States  0.1
30 Sep 2022 00:00 Port O'Connor United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:30 Chinquapin United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 21:45 Oak Grove United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:45 Matagorda United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:30 Barra de la Gabina Guatemala  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:30 Las Champas Guatemala  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:30 Barra de Santiago El Salvador  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:30 Buenos Aires El Salvador  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:30 Metalio El Salvador  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:45 Camp Hulen United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:45 Palacios United States  0.1
29 Sep 2022 23:00 El Naranjo Guatemala  0.1