Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ORLENE-22
in Mexico
02 Oct 2022 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ORLENE-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 144 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (02 Oct 01:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 144 km/h 0.3 m 179 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 158 km/h 0.4 m 539 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico29,503
+
United States12 
Mexico29,491 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Sep 2022 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 29 Sep 2022 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 29 Sep 2022 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 29 Sep 2022 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 30 Sep 2022 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 30 Sep 2022 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 30 Sep 2022 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 30 Sep 2022 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 01 Oct 2022 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 01 Oct 2022 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 01 Oct 2022 12:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 01 Oct 2022 18:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 02 Oct 2022 00:00 148 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

539 mm

Up to 90 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico, Guatemala85,923
+
Mexico4,062 
Guatemala81,861 
50-100 mmMexico, Guatemala5,142,316
+
Mexico2,872,200 
Guatemala2,270,116 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Sep 2022 00:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 29 Sep 2022 06:00 203 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 29 Sep 2022 12:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 29 Sep 2022 18:00 80 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 30 Sep 2022 00:00 139 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 30 Sep 2022 06:00 107 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 30 Sep 2022 12:00 87 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 30 Sep 2022 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 01 Oct 2022 00:00 102 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 01 Oct 2022 06:00 164 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 01 Oct 2022 12:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 01 Oct 2022 18:00 124 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 02 Oct 2022 00:00 428 90 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Guatemala




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 02 Oct 2022 01:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
02 Oct 2022 01:15 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
02 Oct 2022 01:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.3
02 Oct 2022 01:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
02 Oct 2022 00:00 La Choya Mexico  0.2
02 Oct 2022 00:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
02 Oct 2022 00:30 City Arroyo United States  0.2
02 Oct 2022 00:30 Port Mansfield United States  0.2
02 Oct 2022 00:30 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.2
02 Oct 2022 00:15 Rancho Magueyes Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 00:15 El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 00:15 Chaparral Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 02:30 Tahuesco Guatemala  0.1
02 Oct 2022 02:30 Nueva Venecia Guatemala  0.1
02 Oct 2022 02:30 Huitzitzil Guatemala  0.1
02 Oct 2022 02:30 Barra Madre Vieja Guatemala  0.1
02 Oct 2022 02:30 Tecojate Guatemala  0.1
02 Oct 2022 00:00 La Gloria Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 02:30 Sipacate Guatemala  0.1
02 Oct 2022 02:30 El Naranjo Guatemala  0.1
02 Oct 2022 02:30 La Barrita Guatemala  0.1
02 Oct 2022 01:30 Solo Dios Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 05:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 04:15 San Blas Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 05:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 05:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 02:45 Ciudad del Carmen Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 02:45 Victoria Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 04:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 02:15 Barra de la Gabina Guatemala  0.1
02 Oct 2022 02:15 Las Champas Guatemala  0.1
02 Oct 2022 02:15 Barra de Santiago El Salvador  0.1
02 Oct 2022 02:15 La Concepion Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 02:15 Barra de San Jose Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 01:30 El Roble Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 04:15 Novillero Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 03:00 Puerto de San Benito Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 01:45 Boqueron Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 01:45 Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 02:15 San Jose Rama Blanca Guatemala  0.1
02 Oct 2022 04:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 04:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 04:30 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 01:30 Balchacah Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 06:00 Ligui Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 06:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 06:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2022 04:45 Ingleside United States  0.1
02 Oct 2022 04:45 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.1
02 Oct 2022 04:45 Port Ingleside United States  0.1
02 Oct 2022 04:45 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.1
02 Oct 2022 04:45 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.1
02 Oct 2022 04:45 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.1
02 Oct 2022 04:45 Aransas Pass United States  0.1
02 Oct 2022 04:45 Estes United States  0.1
02 Oct 2022 04:45 Mustang Beach United States  0.1
02 Oct 2022 04:45 Port Aransas United States  0.1
02 Oct 2022 04:45 Rockport United States  0.1
02 Oct 2022 04:45 Shell Ridge United States  0.1
02 Oct 2022 04:45 Copano Village United States  0.1
02 Oct 2022 04:45 Fulton United States  0.1
02 Oct 2022 05:15 Marmol Mexico  0.1