Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ORLENE-22
in Mexico
01 Oct 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ORLENE-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 130 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (01 Oct 13:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 130 km/h 0.2 m 161 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 158 km/h 0.4 m 539 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico70,220 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Sep 2022 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 29 Sep 2022 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 29 Sep 2022 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 29 Sep 2022 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 30 Sep 2022 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 30 Sep 2022 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 30 Sep 2022 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 30 Sep 2022 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 01 Oct 2022 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 01 Oct 2022 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 01 Oct 2022 12:00 144 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall

539 mm

Up to 300 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico298,576 
50-100 mmMexico, Guatemala, El Salvador6,179,330
+
Mexico2,817,747 
Guatemala2,505,284 
El Salvador856,298 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Sep 2022 00:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 29 Sep 2022 06:00 203 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 29 Sep 2022 12:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 29 Sep 2022 18:00 80 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 30 Sep 2022 00:00 139 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 30 Sep 2022 06:00 107 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 30 Sep 2022 12:00 87 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 30 Sep 2022 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 01 Oct 2022 00:00 102 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 01 Oct 2022 06:00 164 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 01 Oct 2022 12:00 451 300 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 01 Oct 2022 13:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 01 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
01 Oct 2022 13:15 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
01 Oct 2022 13:15 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
01 Oct 2022 13:45 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
01 Oct 2022 18:00 City Arroyo United States  0.2
01 Oct 2022 18:00 Port Mansfield United States  0.2
01 Oct 2022 18:00 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.2
01 Oct 2022 12:00 La Choya Mexico  0.2
01 Oct 2022 12:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
01 Oct 2022 13:15 Boqueron Mexico  0.1
01 Oct 2022 13:15 Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:00 La Verde Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:00 El Tulate Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:00 Tahuesco Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:00 Nueva Venecia Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 15:00 Acachapa El Salvador  0.1
01 Oct 2022 15:00 El Nispero El Salvador  0.1
01 Oct 2022 15:00 Hacienda Taquillo El Salvador  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:45 San Pedro Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:45 Barra de la Gabina Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:45 Las Champas Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:15 La Concepion Mexico  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:15 Barra de San Jose Mexico  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:45 Los Cobanos El Salvador  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:45 Barra de Santiago El Salvador  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:45 Buenos Aires El Salvador  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:45 Metalio El Salvador  0.1
01 Oct 2022 13:15 Solo Dios Mexico  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:30 Huitzitzil Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:30 Barra Madre Vieja Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:30 Tecojate Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 15:00 Acajutla El Salvador  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:45 La Barrita Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:45 San Jose Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:45 Iztapa Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 17:45 San Blas Mexico  0.1
01 Oct 2022 17:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:30 San Jose Rama Blanca Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:30 Sipacate Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:45 Acapan Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:45 Champerico Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:15 El Chico Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:30 Papaturro Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:30 La Candelaria Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:30 El Pumpo Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:30 La Avellana Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:30 Agua Dulce Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 15:00 El Naranjo Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:30 Ocos Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 15:00 Astillero Guatemala  0.1
01 Oct 2022 13:30 Buenavista Mexico  0.1
01 Oct 2022 14:15 Puerto de San Benito Mexico  0.1
01 Oct 2022 18:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
01 Oct 2022 18:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
01 Oct 2022 18:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
01 Oct 2022 13:30 Arista Mexico  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:00 Corpus Christi United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:00 North Beach United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:00 Gardendale United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:00 Doyle United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:00 Orange Grove United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:00 Peary Place United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:00 Portland United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:00 Flour Bluff United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:00 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:00 Ingleside United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:00 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:00 Port Ingleside United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:00 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:00 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:00 Aransas Pass United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 13:30 Huajapan Mexico  0.1
01 Oct 2022 13:30 El Roble Mexico  0.1
01 Oct 2022 18:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
01 Oct 2022 18:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
01 Oct 2022 13:30 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:00 Mustang Beach United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:00 Port Aransas United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:00 Gregory United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:00 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:00 Estes United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 12:00 Yarborough United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 18:00 Buena Vista United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 18:00 Holly Beach United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 18:00 Laguna Vista United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 18:00 Laguna Heights United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 18:00 Port Isabel United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 18:00 Kopernik Shores United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 18:00 South Padre Island United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 18:00 Boca Chica United States  0.1
01 Oct 2022 17:45 La Lima Mexico  0.1