Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ORLENE-22
in Mexico
03 Oct 2022 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ORLENE-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 144 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (03 Oct 01:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 144 km/h 0.3 m 186 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 158 km/h 0.4 m 539 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

158 km/h

Up to Few people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mexico171 
Tropical StormMexico29,773 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Sep 2022 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 29 Sep 2022 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 29 Sep 2022 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 29 Sep 2022 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 30 Sep 2022 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 30 Sep 2022 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 30 Sep 2022 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 30 Sep 2022 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 01 Oct 2022 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 01 Oct 2022 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 01 Oct 2022 12:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 01 Oct 2022 18:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 02 Oct 2022 00:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 02 Oct 2022 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 02 Oct 2022 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 02 Oct 2022 18:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 03 Oct 2022 00:00 144 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico22,251 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala6,796,704
+
United States1,282 
Mexico6,117,138 
Guatemala678,283 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Sep 2022 00:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 29 Sep 2022 06:00 203 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 29 Sep 2022 12:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 29 Sep 2022 18:00 80 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 30 Sep 2022 00:00 139 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 30 Sep 2022 06:00 107 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 30 Sep 2022 12:00 87 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 30 Sep 2022 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 01 Oct 2022 00:00 102 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 01 Oct 2022 06:00 164 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 01 Oct 2022 12:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 01 Oct 2022 18:00 124 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 02 Oct 2022 00:00 179 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 02 Oct 2022 06:00 201 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 02 Oct 2022 12:00 272 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 16 02 Oct 2022 18:00 133 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 03 Oct 2022 00:00 270 20 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico, Guatemala




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 03 Oct 2022 01:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
03 Oct 2022 01:15 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
03 Oct 2022 01:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.3
03 Oct 2022 01:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 06:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 06:00 Monteon Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 06:00 La Lima Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 05:45 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 06:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 06:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 05:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 00:45 Punta Mita Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 00:45 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 00:45 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 00:45 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 05:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 05:45 San Blas Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 02:15 Novillero Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 02:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 02:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 02:30 El Tulate Guatemala  0.2
03 Oct 2022 02:30 Tahuesco Guatemala  0.2
03 Oct 2022 02:30 Nueva Venecia Guatemala  0.2
03 Oct 2022 02:30 Huitzitzil Guatemala  0.2
03 Oct 2022 02:30 Barra Madre Vieja Guatemala  0.2
03 Oct 2022 00:30 La Choya Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 00:30 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 00:30 Corrales Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 00:30 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 00:30 Ipala Mexico  0.2
03 Oct 2022 04:00 City Arroyo United States  0.2
03 Oct 2022 04:00 Port Mansfield United States  0.2
03 Oct 2022 04:00 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.2
03 Oct 2022 05:45 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 05:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 05:30 La Boca Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:45 La Avellana Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:45 Agua Dulce Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:45 Astillero Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:45 San Pedro Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:45 Barra de la Gabina Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 06:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 05:45 Marmol Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 03:45 La Concepion Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 04:30 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 05:45 Florida Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 05:45 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 04:15 Solo Dios Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 00:45 Boqueron Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 00:45 Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:45 Las Champas Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:45 Barra de Santiago El Salvador  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:45 Buenos Aires El Salvador  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:45 Metalio El Salvador  0.1
03 Oct 2022 03:30 Dimas Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 03:15 Tecojate Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 03:15 San Jose Rama Blanca Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 03:15 Sipacate Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:00 Arista Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 03:45 Barra de San Jose Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 06:00 Altata Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 03:00 Acajutla El Salvador  0.1
03 Oct 2022 03:00 Los Cobanos El Salvador  0.1
03 Oct 2022 03:00 Acachapa El Salvador  0.1
03 Oct 2022 05:15 Barron Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 04:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 04:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:15 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 04:00 El Naranjo Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 01:45 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:45 La Barrita Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:45 San Jose Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 01:30 Buenavista Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 03:15 El Nispero El Salvador  0.1
03 Oct 2022 03:15 Hacienda Taquillo El Salvador  0.1
03 Oct 2022 05:30 Ligui Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 05:30 Tripui Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 05:30 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 03:45 Ocos Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 03:45 El Chico Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 04:15 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:15 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 01:30 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 01:30 La Majada Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 04:45 El Roble Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 03:15 Puerto de San Benito Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 03:30 Champerico Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:45 La Verde Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 06:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 06:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 01:15 Copala Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 01:15 Marquelia Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 05:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 05:15 Loreto Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:45 Acapan Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 03:30 Ciudad del Carmen Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 03:30 Victoria Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:15 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 06:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 06:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 06:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 06:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 04:45 Huajapan Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 06:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 06:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:00 Garrapateras Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:00 Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 02:15 Balchacah Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 03:00 Iztapa Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 06:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 03:00 Papaturro Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 03:00 La Candelaria Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 03:00 El Pumpo Guatemala  0.1
03 Oct 2022 05:15 San Jose Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 05:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 05:15 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 06:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
03 Oct 2022 04:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1