Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CELIA-22
in Mexico
17 Jun 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CELIA-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mexico, United States, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama
Exposed population 420 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (17 Jun 23:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 90 km/h 0.5 m 218 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 68 km/h 0.6 m 632 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

68 km/h

Up to 40 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 5Mexico, United States, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica387,066
+
Mexico351,700 
United States11,424 
Guatemala1,085 
Honduras6,716 
El Salvador11,981 
Nicaragua3,808 
Costa Rica349 
CAT. 4United States, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua7,060
+
Mexico5,033 
United States1,812 
Guatemala114 
Honduras57 
Nicaragua42 
CAT. 3Mexico, United States, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama14,325
+
Mexico12,818 
United States1,405 
Honduras35 
Nicaragua42 
Panama22 
CAT. 2United States, Mexico, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua6,621
+
Mexico2,283 
United States3,283 
Honduras912 
El Salvador128 
Nicaragua13 
CAT. 1United States, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama9,617
+
Mexico7,195 
United States1,875 
Guatemala99 
Honduras412 
Nicaragua28 
Panama05 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua37,775
+
Mexico26,106 
United States6,920 
Guatemala1,066 
Honduras138 
El Salvador3,459 
Nicaragua84 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 Jun 2022 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 16 Jun 2022 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jun 2022 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 17 Jun 2022 12:00 - 420 thousand
Mexico, United States, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmCosta Rica153 
100-250 mmMexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama1,608,148
+
Mexico638,251 
Guatemala804,046 
Honduras41 
Costa Rica165,092 
Panama716 
50-100 mmMexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama28,099,203
+
Mexico8,933,925 
Belize215,686 
Guatemala13,524,508 
Honduras1,165,457 
Nicaragua616,938 
El Salvador1,007,355 
Costa Rica2,271,211 
Panama364,120 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 Jun 2022 00:00 359 110 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Nicaragua, Costa Rica
Blue 2 16 Jun 2022 12:00 210 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 3 17 Jun 2022 00:00 208 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 17 Jun 2022 12:00 371 1.6 million
- - - Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Florida, Nine Mile, United States. This height is estimated for 18/06/2022 17:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
18/06/2022 17:00 Florida, Nine Mile United States  0.2
18/06/2022 15:00 Texas, North Beach United States  0.2
18/06/2022 23:00 Florida, Feather Sound United States  0.2
18/06/2022 15:00 Texas, Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
18/06/2022 23:00 Atlantico Norte, Cabo Gracias Viejo Nicaragua  0.2
18/06/2022 23:00 Gracias a Dios, Irlaya Honduras  0.2
18/06/2022 23:00 Corozal, Corozal Belize  0.2
18/06/2022 20:00 Toledo, Cattle Landing Belize  0.2
18/06/2022 23:00 Belize, Belize City Belize  0.2
16/06/2022 01:00 Baja California Sur, San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.2
18/06/2022 15:00 Texas, Port Ingleside United States  0.2
18/06/2022 23:00 Quintana Roo, Calderita Mexico  0.2
18/06/2022 15:00 Texas, El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
18/06/2022 23:00 Gracias a Dios, Cabo Gracias a Dios Honduras  0.2
18/06/2022 22:00 Pinar del Rio, El Hondon Cuba  0.2
19/06/2022 00:00 Corozal, Santeneja Belize  0.2
18/06/2022 22:00 Veracruz, Buen Pais Mexico  0.2
18/06/2022 11:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquite Mexico  0.2
18/06/2022 22:00 Islas de la Bahia, Isla de Roatan Roatan Honduras  0.2
18/06/2022 21:00 Florida, Tierra Verde United States  0.2
18/06/2022 21:00 Florida, Bayway United States  0.2
18/06/2022 21:00 Florida, Lakewood Estates United States  0.2
19/06/2022 00:00 Colon, Puerto Castilla Honduras  0.2
18/06/2022 23:00 Quintana Roo, Vigia Chico Mexico  0.2
19/06/2022 00:00 Gracias a Dios, Huarta Honduras  0.2
18/06/2022 23:00 Colon, Empalme Honduras  0.2
18/06/2022 20:00 Florida, Punta Rassa United States  0.2
18/06/2022 22:00 Islas de la Bahia, Isla de Roatan Santa Elena Honduras  0.2
18/06/2022 21:00 Gracias a Dios, Pusuaya Honduras  0.2
18/06/2022 13:00 Campeche, Isla del Carmen Paso Real Mexico  0.2
18/06/2022 23:00 Islas de la Bahia, Isla de Guanaja Red Cliff Honduras  0.2
19/06/2022 00:00 Gracias a Dios, Tusi Cocal Honduras  0.2
18/06/2022 23:00 Corozal, Ambergris Cay San Pedro Belize  0.2
17/06/2022 16:00 Louisiana, Cameron United States  0.2
18/06/2022 23:00 Gracias a Dios, Rio Platano Honduras  0.2
18/06/2022 23:00 Corozal, Ambergris Cay Bacalar Chico Belize  0.2
18/06/2022 23:00 Veracruz, Veracruz Mexico  0.2
18/06/2022 20:00 Louisiana, Cypremort Point United States  0.2
18/06/2022 22:00 Gracias a Dios, Barra del Patuca Honduras  0.2
16/06/2022 07:00 Chiapas, Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.2
18/06/2022 22:00 Veracruz, Anton Lizardo Mexico  0.2
19/06/2022 00:00 Quintana Roo, Majahual Mexico  0.2
18/06/2022 21:00 Florida, Bahia Shores United States  0.2
18/06/2022 21:00 Florida, Saint Petersburg Beach United States  0.2
18/06/2022 17:00 Texas, Caplen United States  0.2
18/06/2022 17:00 Texas, Gilchrist United States  0.2
18/06/2022 23:00 Quintana Roo, El Placer Mexico  0.2
18/06/2022 19:00 Texas, Beach City United States  0.2
18/06/2022 21:00 Florida, Fort De Soto United States  0.2
18/06/2022 19:00 Texas, Smith Point United States  0.2
18/06/2022 23:00 Tamaulipas, El Porvenir Mexico  0.2
18/06/2022 15:00 Texas, Crystal Beach United States  0.2
18/06/2022 15:00 Texas, Patton United States  0.2
18/06/2022 20:00 Florida, Anna Maria United States  0.2
18/06/2022 20:00 Florida, Holmes Beach United States  0.2
18/06/2022 20:00 Florida, Ilexhurst United States  0.2
18/06/2022 10:00 Valle, Puerto Grande Honduras  0.2
18/06/2022 10:00 Valle, El Moray Honduras  0.2
18/06/2022 19:00 Texas, Cedar Point United States  0.2
18/06/2022 16:00 Louisiana, Medicant Island Bassa Bassa United States  0.2
18/06/2022 20:00 Texas, Seabrook United States  0.2
18/06/2022 23:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquital Mexico  0.2
18/06/2022 17:00 Florida, Apalachicola United States  0.2
18/06/2022 21:00 Tamaulipas, Las Guayabas Mexico  0.1
18/06/2022 21:00 Louisiana, Cocodrie United States  0.1
18/06/2022 19:00 Florida, Sanibel Island Captiva United States  0.1
18/06/2022 19:00 Florida, Sanibel Island Wulfert United States  0.1
19/06/2022 00:00 Veracruz, Tecolutla Mexico  0.1
19/06/2022 00:00 Veracruz, Monte Gordo Mexico  0.1
18/06/2022 23:00 Veracruz, El Laurel Mexico  0.1
18/06/2022 21:00 Veracruz, La Guadalupe Mexico  0.1
18/06/2022 16:00 Texas, Galveston Island Jamaica Beach United States  0.1
18/06/2022 16:00 Texas, Galveston Island Bay Harbor United States  0.1
18/06/2022 19:00 Florida, Sanibel Island Fort Myers Beach United States  0.1
18/06/2022 16:00 Texas, Quintana United States  0.1
18/06/2022 22:00 Pinar del Rio, Punta de Fisga Cuba  0.1
18/06/2022 18:00 Florida, Boca Grande United States  0.1
18/06/2022 10:00 Baja California Sur, Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
18/06/2022 10:00 Valle, El Ajustillo Honduras  0.1
18/06/2022 10:00 Valle, Las Piletas Honduras  0.1
18/06/2022 19:00 Louisiana, Port Fourchon United States  0.1
19/06/2022 00:00 Louisiana, Cheniere Caminada United States  0.1
19/06/2022 00:00 Louisiana, Grand Isle United States  0.1
16/06/2022 01:00 Escuintla, El Naranjo Guatemala  0.1
18/06/2022 19:00 Louisiana, Breton United States  0.1
18/06/2022 23:00 Pinar del Rio, La Furnia Cuba  0.1
18/06/2022 18:00 Louisiana, Port Eads United States  0.1
18/06/2022 09:00 Valle, Gualora Honduras  0.1
18/06/2022 19:00 Louisiana, West Point United States  0.1
16/06/2022 03:00 Puntarenas, San Lucas Costa Rica  0.1
16/06/2022 01:00 Escuintla, Sipacate Guatemala  0.1
18/06/2022 18:00 Louisiana, South Pass United States  0.1
18/06/2022 14:00 Atlantico Norte, Tahuantla Nicaragua  0.1
18/06/2022 14:00 Atlantico Norte, Puerto Isabel Nicaragua  0.1
16/06/2022 10:00 Sinaloa, Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 06:00 Leon, Linda Vista Nicaragua  0.1
18/06/2022 08:00 Escuintla, La Barrita Guatemala  0.1
16/06/2022 01:00 Baja California Sur, El Tule Mexico  0.1
18/06/2022 19:00 Florida, Dry Tortugas Fort Jefferson United States  0.1
18/06/2022 08:00 Escuintla, San Jose Guatemala  0.1
16/06/2022 09:00 Sonora, Atanacio Mexico  0.1
18/06/2022 10:00 Michoacan de Ocampo, Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.1
18/06/2022 12:00 Oaxaca, Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 01:00 Baja California Sur, Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
18/06/2022 09:00 Chiriqui, Batipa Panama  0.1
18/06/2022 22:00 Atlantico Norte, Huahua Nicaragua  0.1
18/06/2022 13:00 Atlantico Norte, Tuapi Nicaragua  0.1
18/06/2022 08:00 Guanacaste, El Jobo Costa Rica  0.1
18/06/2022 12:00 Oaxaca, Garrapateras Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 16:00 Sonora, San Jose Mexico  0.1
18/06/2022 08:00 Escuintla, Iztapa Guatemala  0.1
18/06/2022 02:00 Puntarenas, Gigante Costa Rica  0.1
18/06/2022 16:00 Sonora, Guaymas Mexico  0.1
18/06/2022 08:00 Santa Rosa, Papaturro Guatemala  0.1
19/06/2022 00:00 Oaxaca, Puerto Angel Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 11:00 Baja California Sur, Tripui Mexico  0.1
18/06/2022 23:00 Oaxaca, Bajos de Chila Mexico  0.1
18/06/2022 15:00 Atlantico Sur, Barra de Rio Grande Nicaragua  0.1
18/06/2022 09:00 Baja California Sur, Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
18/06/2022 09:00 Baja California Sur, Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
18/06/2022 08:00 Baja California Sur, San Carlos Mexico  0.1
18/06/2022 15:00 Atlantico Norte, Coco Haulover Nicaragua  0.1
18/06/2022 00:00 Puntarenas, Esterillo Este Costa Rica  0.1
18/06/2022 00:00 Puntarenas, Bejuco Costa Rica  0.1