Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CELIA-22
in Mexico
23 Jun 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CELIA-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (23 Jun 22:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 68 km/h 0.5 m 150 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 68 km/h 0.6 m 632 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

68 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 23 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 Jun 2022 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 16 Jun 2022 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jun 2022 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 17 Jun 2022 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jun 2022 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jun 2022 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 19 Jun 2022 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jun 2022 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 20 Jun 2022 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 20 Jun 2022 12:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 21 Jun 2022 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 21 Jun 2022 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 22 Jun 2022 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 22 Jun 2022 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 23 Jun 2022 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 23 Jun 2022 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmNicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama538,464
+
Nicaragua27,771 
Costa Rica508,246 
Panama2,446 
50-100 mmMexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama5,890,307
+
Mexico439,132 
Guatemala343,022 
Honduras80,468 
El Salvador629,418 
Nicaragua809,408 
Colombia76,993 
Costa Rica3,000,580 
Panama511,280 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 Jun 2022 00:00 359 110 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Nicaragua, Costa Rica
Blue 2 16 Jun 2022 12:00 210 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 3 17 Jun 2022 00:00 208 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 17 Jun 2022 12:00 218 -
- - - - - Mexico, Guatemala
Blue 5 18 Jun 2022 00:00 204 -
- - - - - Guatemala, Mexico
Blue 6 18 Jun 2022 12:00 130 -
- - - - - Guatemala
Blue 7 19 Jun 2022 00:00 132 -
- - - - - Costa Rica
Blue 8 19 Jun 2022 12:00 207 20 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama
Blue 9 20 Jun 2022 00:00 203 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 10 20 Jun 2022 12:00 134 -
- - - - - Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica
Blue 11 21 Jun 2022 00:00 306 Few people
- - - - Mexico, Guatemala
Blue 12 21 Jun 2022 12:00 197 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 13 22 Jun 2022 00:00 158 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 14 22 Jun 2022 12:00 394 -
- - - - - Mexico, Guatemala
Blue 15 23 Jun 2022 00:00 241 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 16 23 Jun 2022 12:00 291 540 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 23 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC