Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for MUIFA-22 in China, Japan from 06 Sep 2022 18:00 UTC to 16 Sep 2022 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for MUIFA-22

in China, Japan

15 Sep 2022 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MUIFA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	China, North Korea, Japan, South Korea, Philippines
Exposed population	170 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	104 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.5 m (15 Sep 21:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	104 km/h	1.5 m	66 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	176 km/h	2.2 m	717 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

176 km/h

Up to 12.8 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 2	Japan	11,261
CAT. 1	Japan	158,113
Tropical Storm	China, North Korea, Japan, South Korea, Philippines	12,793,216	+
	China	5,904,625
	North Korea	1,572
	Japan	6,882,801
	South Korea	78
	Philippines	4,138

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	06 Sep 2022 18:00	104	-		-	-	-	-	-	Russia, Japan
2	07 Sep 2022 00:00	83	-		-	-	-	-	-	Russia, Japan
3	07 Sep 2022 06:00	79	-		-	-	-	-	-	Russia
4	07 Sep 2022 12:00	90	-		-	-	-	-	-	Russia
5	07 Sep 2022 18:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	08 Sep 2022 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	08 Sep 2022 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	08 Sep 2022 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	08 Sep 2022 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	09 Sep 2022 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	09 Sep 2022 06:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	09 Sep 2022 12:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	09 Sep 2022 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	10 Sep 2022 00:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	10 Sep 2022 06:00	130	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	10 Sep 2022 12:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	10 Sep 2022 18:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	11 Sep 2022 00:00	173	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
19	11 Sep 2022 06:00	162	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
20	11 Sep 2022 12:00	162	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
21	11 Sep 2022 18:00	144	50 thousand			-	-	-	-	Japan
22	12 Sep 2022 00:00	130	2 thousand			-	-	-	-	Japan
23	12 Sep 2022 06:00	-	4.1 million							Japan, China, South Korea
24	12 Sep 2022 12:00	140	50 thousand			-	-	-	-	Japan
25	12 Sep 2022 18:00	126	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
26	13 Sep 2022 00:00	144	-		-	-	-	-	-	Russia, Japan
27	13 Sep 2022 06:00	158	-		-	-	-	-	-	Russia, Japan
28	13 Sep 2022 12:00	137	-		-	-	-	-	-	Russia, Japan
29	13 Sep 2022 18:00	144	-		-	-	-	-	-	China
30	14 Sep 2022 00:00	137	-		-	-	-	-	-	South Korea, China, Japan
31	14 Sep 2022 06:00	130	-		-	-	-	-	-	China, Japan
32	14 Sep 2022 12:00	112	-		-	-	-	-	-	China, Japan
33	14 Sep 2022 18:00	104	-		-	-	-	-	-	China, Japan
34	15 Sep 2022 00:00	97	-		-	-	-	-	-	China
35	15 Sep 2022 06:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	China, Japan
36	15 Sep 2022 12:00	184	170 thousand				-	-	-	China, North Korea, Japan, South Korea, Philippines

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Japan	28,693
100-250 mm	China, Japan, Philippines	14,310,310	+
	China	11,586,484
	Japan	2,701,384
	Philippines	22,441
50-100 mm	Russia, China, Japan, North Korea, Philippines	27,904,805	+
	Russia	90,976
	China	17,270,853
	Japan	5,062,866
	North Korea	261,329
	Philippines	5,218,779

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	06 Sep 2022 18:00	131	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	07 Sep 2022 00:00	150	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
3	07 Sep 2022 06:00	148	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	07 Sep 2022 12:00	213	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	07 Sep 2022 18:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	08 Sep 2022 00:00	117	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	08 Sep 2022 06:00	154	-		-	-	-	-	-	China
8	08 Sep 2022 12:00	84	-		-	-	-	-	-	China
9	08 Sep 2022 18:00	74	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	09 Sep 2022 00:00	74	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	09 Sep 2022 06:00	123	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	09 Sep 2022 12:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	09 Sep 2022 18:00	121	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	10 Sep 2022 00:00	113	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	10 Sep 2022 06:00	181	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	10 Sep 2022 12:00	173	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	10 Sep 2022 18:00	204	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	11 Sep 2022 00:00	194	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	11 Sep 2022 06:00	252	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	11 Sep 2022 12:00	257	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
21	11 Sep 2022 18:00	151	2 thousand			-	-	-	-	Japan
22	12 Sep 2022 00:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
23	12 Sep 2022 06:00	182	Few people			-	-	-	-	China, Japan
24	12 Sep 2022 12:00	214	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
25	12 Sep 2022 18:00	134	-		-	-	-	-	-	China
26	13 Sep 2022 00:00	137	-		-	-	-	-	-	China
27	13 Sep 2022 06:00	225	-		-	-	-	-	-	China
28	13 Sep 2022 12:00	142	-		-	-	-	-	-	China
29	13 Sep 2022 18:00	121	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	14 Sep 2022 00:00	157	-		-	-	-	-	-	China
31	14 Sep 2022 06:00	111	330 thousand			-	-	-	-	China, Japan, Philippines
32	14 Sep 2022 12:00	190	-		-	-	-	-	-	China
33	14 Sep 2022 18:00	124	-		-	-	-	-	-	China
34	15 Sep 2022 00:00	85	-		-	-	-	-	-	China
35	15 Sep 2022 06:00	143	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	China, Philippines
36	15 Sep 2022 12:00	567	14.3 million				-	-	-	Russia, China, Japan, North Korea, Philippines

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.