Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BONNIE-22 in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Venezuela, Aruba, Netherlands Antilles, Trinidad and Tobago from 27 Jun 2022 21:00 UTC to 09 Jul 2022 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BONNIE-22

in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Venezuela, Aruba, Netherlands Antilles, Trinidad and Tobago

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BONNIE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	61 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (27 Jun 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Costa Rica)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	61 km/h	0.4 m	185 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	130 km/h	0.6 m	1240 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

130 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 27 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	27 Jun 2022 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	27 Jun 2022 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico, Trinidad and Tobago, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, Brazil	257,273	+
	Mexico	17,857
	Colombia	229,432
	Venezuela	6,047
	Trinidad and Tobago	775
	Costa Rica	18
	Guyana	2,574
	Suriname	156
	Brazil	411
50-100 mm	United States, Mexico, Cuba, Guatemala, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Nicaragua, Colombia, Grenada, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, Brazil	14,103,394	+
	United States	298
	Mexico	1,425,394
	Cuba	3,823
	Guatemala	36,001
	Dominica	8,600
	Martinique	4,777
	Saint Lucia	646
	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	16,121
	Nicaragua	102,083
	Colombia	6,259,602
	Grenada	24,368
	Venezuela	3,591,947
	Trinidad and Tobago	140,846
	Costa Rica	1,196,728
	Panama	405,066
	Guyana	704,130
	Suriname	68,938
	French Guiana	68,007
	Brazil	46,011

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	27 Jun 2022 00:00	120	4 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, Venezuela, Colombia, Guyana, Suriname, Brazil
	2	27 Jun 2022 12:00	233	260 thousand			-	-	-	-	United States, Mexico, Cuba, Guatemala, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Nicaragua, Colombia, Grenada, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, Brazil

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.