Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BONNIE-22
in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Venezuela, Aruba, Netherlands Antilles, Trinidad and Tobago

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Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 092200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 049//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 049
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 128.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 128.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.5N 132.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.5N 135.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
092200Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 129.7W.
09JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1001
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z
IS 18 FEET.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 092037
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie Discussion Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 PM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022

Bonnie has now been devoid of deep convection for over 12 hours,
which means it has degenerated into a post-tropical low and this
will be the last advisory. An ASCAT pass around 1800 UTC showed
maximum winds between 35 and 40 kt, so with the assumption of some
continued weakening, the advisory intensity is 35 kt. Additional
gradual weakening is anticipated over the next day or so while the
convection-less low moves quickly westward between 15-18 kt over
waters of 23-24 degrees Celsius and further into a drier, more
stable air mass. Global model surface fields indicate that
Bonnie's circulation should open up into a trough by Sunday night,
and dissipation is now shown in the forecast at 36 hours.

For additional information on the post-tropical low please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 19.5N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 10/0600Z 19.5N 132.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/1800Z 19.5N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 092036
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie Advisory Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 PM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022

...BONNIE'S LONG VOYAGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ENDS AS IT BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 129.4W
ABOUT 1275 MI...2055 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie
was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 129.4 West. Bonnie
is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A westward motion
with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast through Sunday, and the post-tropical
low is expected to dissipate by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the
post-tropical low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 092035
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
2100 UTC SAT JUL 09 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 129.4W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 129.4W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 128.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.5N 132.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.5N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 129.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
POST-TROPICAL LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 091600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 048//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 19.4N 126.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 126.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.6N 130.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.6N 133.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.6N 136.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
091600Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 128.0W.
09JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 950
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092200Z, 100400Z, 101000Z AND 101600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 091444
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022

The last few deep convective cloud tops below -50C dissipated with
Bonnie at around 0600 UTC last night. In the absence of any deeper
convection since then, Bonnie's remaining time as a tropical
cyclone is fleeting. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates
continue to decrease, and the initial intensity has been reduced to
35 kt in this advisory.

The initial motion continues just north of due west at 280/18 kt. As
Bonnie continues weakening, it will be increasingly steered westward
by the low-level trade wind flow. The latest track forecast is
largely an update of the previous one but just a bit faster,
remaining close to the center of the track guidance envelope.

Bonnie is now over sub-24C sea-surface temperatures and embedded
in a very dry, stable atmospheric environment. These factors are
expected to prevent additional deep convective activity over the
system. If deeper convection does not return soon near the center,
Bonnie could become a post-tropical cyclone as early as this
afternoon. This expectation is reflected in the latest forecast with
Bonnie becoming a remnant low in 12 h, with the closed circulation
opening up into a trough in 48 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 19.5N 127.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/1200Z 19.6N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/0000Z 19.6N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 091442
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022

...BONNIE LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 127.7W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 127.7 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general
motion should continue until Bonnie dissipates early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Bonnie should
become a post-tropical cyclone later today. The post-tropical low
should dissipate by early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 091441
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
1500 UTC SAT JUL 09 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 127.7W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 75SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 127.7W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 126.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.6N 133.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.6N 136.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 127.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 091000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 047//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 047
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 124.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 124.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.5N 128.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.6N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.6N 135.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.6N 138.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
091000Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 125.9W.
09JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 905
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091600Z, 092200Z, 100400Z AND 101000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 090837
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022

Deep convection associated with Bonnie has decreased over the past
several hours, with only a small area of convection remaining in
the northeastern quadrant. The various satellite intensity
estimates are in the 30-55 kt range, and based on these and the
convective trends the initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt.

Bonnie should continue to weaken as it moves over cool sea surface
temperatures and as it ingests a drier air mass. The system is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by 24 h, and the global
models are in good agreement that the system will weaken to a
trough by 60 h. The new intensity forecast has some minor
adjustments from the previous forecast.

The initial motion is now 280/17 kt. Bonnie or its remnants should
move quickly westward in the low-level trade winds until the
system dissipates. The new forecast track is in the center of the
tightly-clustered track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 19.3N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 19.5N 128.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 19.6N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/1800Z 19.6N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0600Z 19.6N 138.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 090836
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022

...BONNIE WEAKENS FURTHER...
...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 125.5W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 125.5 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is
expected to become post-tropical later today or tonight. The
post-tropical low should then dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 090836
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
0900 UTC SAT JUL 09 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 125.5W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 125.5W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 124.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.5N 128.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.6N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.6N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.6N 138.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 125.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 090400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 046//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 046
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 19.0N 122.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 122.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.4N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.6N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.7N 133.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.7N 136.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.6N 139.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
090400Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 124.0W.
09JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 877
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091000Z, 091600Z, 092200Z AND 100400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 090235
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
800 PM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Bonnie continues to produce an area of deep convection near the
center, but stable air is entraining into the circulation and some
dry slots have become evident during the past couple of hours. The
Dvorak intensity estimates from CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin, SAB, and TAFB range from 35 to 55 kt, and based on that
data, the initial intensity is nudged down to 50 kt for this
advisory.

Bonnie is currently over cool 24C waters and it is headed for even
cooler waters during the next day or so. These unfavorable oceanic
conditions combined with a stable air mass should cause additional
weakening, and Bonnie will likely become a post-tropical cyclone by
late Saturday. The post-tropical system should open into a trough
late in the weekend or early next week when it moves into a region
of moderate to strong vertical wind shear.

The tropical storm is moving relatively quickly west-northwestward
at 17 kt. A turn to the west within the low-level flow is expected
on Saturday, and that motion should continue until Bonnie
dissipates. The models are in good agreement, and this forecast
remains near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 19.1N 123.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 19.4N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 10/1200Z 19.7N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0000Z 19.7N 136.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/1200Z 19.6N 139.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 090235
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
800 PM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022

...BONNIE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 123.7W
ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 123.7 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn to
the west is expected on Saturday and that motion should continue
through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is
expected to become post-tropical on Saturday. The post-tropical
low should then dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 090235
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
0300 UTC SAT JUL 09 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 123.7W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 123.7W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 122.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.4N 126.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.7N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 136.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.6N 139.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 123.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 082200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 045//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 045
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 04E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 120.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 120.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.0N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.3N 128.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.4N 131.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.4N 135.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.4N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
082200Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 122.1W.
08JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 876
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090400Z, 091000Z, 091600Z AND 092200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 082032
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Bonnie's center remains embedded beneath a small Central Dense
Overcast which hasn't really shrunk any further in size during the
day. That said, satellite intensity estimates have continued to
decrease, and the estimated initial intensity of 55 kt is close to
the Dvorak estimate from TAFB and a 1519 UTC SATCON estimate. A
recent ASCAT pass showed peak winds around 50 kt, which also
supports an intensity of 55 kt given the instrument's low resolution
and Bonnie's small size. Sea surface temperatures below the storm
are now 24 to 25 degrees Celsius and will continue to get colder
over the next day or two while the atmosphere becomes more stable.
Therefore, Bonnie's deep convection could dissipate by 24 hours,
which is when it's shown becoming post-tropical in the forecast.
Winds will continue to gradually decrease, and the system is
expected to dissipate in 3 days, if not sooner.

The current motion is north of due west, or 280/16 kt. Low- to
mid-level ridging is expected to keep Bonnie on a quick westward
track at 15 to 20 kt during the next couple of days until
dissipation. The NHC track forecast was nudged southward after 24
hours to fall closer to the GFS and ECMWF solutions, but that
update is fairly negligible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 18.6N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 19.0N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 19.3N 128.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 10/0600Z 19.4N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1800Z 19.4N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/0600Z 19.4N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 082031
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022

...BONNIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON SATURDAY AND THEN DISSIPATE
BY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 121.8W
ABOUT 825 MI...1325 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 121.8 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a quick westward
motion is expected to continue through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is
expected to become post-tropical on Saturday. The post-tropical
low should then dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 082031
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
2100 UTC FRI JUL 08 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 121.8W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 121.8W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 120.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.0N 124.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.3N 128.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.4N 131.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.4N 135.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.4N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 121.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 081600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 044//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 18.2N 119.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 119.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.8N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.3N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.6N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.7N 133.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.7N 136.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.7N 139.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
081600Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 120.7W.
08JUL22. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 880 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS
32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082200Z, 090400Z, 091000Z AND 091600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 081434
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Deep convection continues to quickly decrease near Bonnie, with a
small area remaining near and north of the surface center. Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates are falling, and a blend of 4
0935 UTC microwave SATCON intensity values supports an initial
intensity of 65 kt for this advisory. Bonnie's moving over 25 deg
C water with cooler oceanic surface temperatures and a drier,
stable air mass along the forecast path of the cyclone. Therefore,
further weakening is likely with a loss of organized convection,
and post-tropical status is predicted in 36 hours, possibly less.
As shown in the global models and the NHC intensity forecast,
Bonnie should degenerate into a trough in 4 days.

The initial motion is due west, or 280/17 kt. Low- to
mid-tropospheric easterly flow should steer the cyclone on a
continued westward heading with a slight decrease in forward speed
early Sunday. The model guidance remains in good agreement with
the future track of Bonnie through the period, and no appreciable
changes were made from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 18.3N 120.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 18.8N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 19.3N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 10/1200Z 19.7N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/0000Z 19.7N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1200Z 19.7N 139.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 081433
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022

...BONNIE LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 120.4W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 120.4 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A general westward motion
is expected during the next few days with a slight reduction in
forward speed Sunday through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Bonnie is expected to weaken below hurricane
strength later today and then become a post-tropical cyclone on
Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 081433
TCMEP4

HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
1500 UTC FRI JUL 08 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 120.4W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 120.4W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 119.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.8N 123.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.3N 126.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.7N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.7N 139.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 120.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 043//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 18.0N 117.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 117.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.7N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.2N 124.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.5N 128.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.7N 131.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.8N 135.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.8N 138.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
081000Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 118.8W.
08JUL22. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 883 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS
34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081600Z, 082200Z, 090400Z AND 091000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 080836
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Convection associated with Bonnie had decreased significantly in
coverage and intensity since the last advisory, with the primary
convection now confined to the northeastern quadrant. Satellite
intensity estimates have also decreased, and the initial intensity
is reduced to a possibly generous 75 kt. The cyclone has passed
over the 26C isotherm, and it continues to move over colder water
and into a drier air mass. Thus, steady to rapid weakening is
expected, with Bonnie weakening to a tropical storm in less than 24
h and becoming a post-tropical low by 48 h. The system is forecast
to degenerate to a trough after 72 h, and the global model guidance
suggests this could happen earlier than currently forecast.

The initial motion is 285/16 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of Bonnie is expected to steer the cyclone or its remnants
generally westward with a slight increase in forward speed until
dissipation. The new track forecast is an update of the previous
forecast and lies in the middle of the tightly clustered track
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 18.2N 118.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 18.7N 121.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 19.2N 124.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 19.5N 128.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 19.7N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 10/1800Z 19.8N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/0600Z 19.8N 138.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 080835
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022

...BONNIE WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 118.5W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 118.5 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward
motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Bonnie is expected to weaken below hurricane
strength later today and then become a post-tropical cyclone on
Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 080834
TCMEP4

HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
0900 UTC FRI JUL 08 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 118.5W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 105SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 118.5W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 117.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.7N 121.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.2N 124.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.5N 128.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.7N 131.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.8N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.8N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 118.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 080412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.07.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 100.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.07.2022 0 12.1N 100.8W 1008 20
1200UTC 08.07.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE BONNIE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 116.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.07.2022 0 17.8N 116.2W 983 57
1200UTC 08.07.2022 12 18.3N 119.5W 990 48
0000UTC 09.07.2022 24 18.8N 123.1W 998 41
1200UTC 09.07.2022 36 19.4N 127.1W 1004 41
0000UTC 10.07.2022 48 19.5N 131.3W 1009 34
1200UTC 10.07.2022 60 19.5N 135.0W 1012 29
0000UTC 11.07.2022 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 36.8N 75.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.07.2022 60 36.5N 72.7W 1003 42
0000UTC 11.07.2022 72 35.8N 69.4W 1005 38
1200UTC 11.07.2022 84 36.6N 65.5W 1007 35
0000UTC 12.07.2022 96 38.9N 58.4W 1009 30
1200UTC 12.07.2022 108 39.4N 56.7W 1009 30
0000UTC 13.07.2022 120 42.8N 51.6W 1013 29
1200UTC 13.07.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 13.6N 121.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.07.2022 72 13.9N 123.1W 1008 33
1200UTC 11.07.2022 84 14.0N 127.1W 1006 32
0000UTC 12.07.2022 96 14.4N 130.6W 1006 34
1200UTC 12.07.2022 108 14.7N 134.0W 1007 32
0000UTC 13.07.2022 120 14.7N 137.6W 1008 30
1200UTC 13.07.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080412

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 080412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.07.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 100.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.07.2022 12.1N 100.8W WEAK
12UTC 08.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE BONNIE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 116.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.07.2022 17.8N 116.2W MODERATE
12UTC 08.07.2022 18.3N 119.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.07.2022 18.8N 123.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.07.2022 19.4N 127.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.07.2022 19.5N 131.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.07.2022 19.5N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 36.8N 75.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.07.2022 36.5N 72.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.07.2022 35.8N 69.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2022 36.6N 65.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.07.2022 38.9N 58.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.07.2022 39.4N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2022 42.8N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 13.6N 121.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.07.2022 13.9N 123.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.07.2022 14.0N 127.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.07.2022 14.4N 130.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.07.2022 14.7N 134.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2022 14.7N 137.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080412

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 080400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 042//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 18.0N 116.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 116.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.6N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.2N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.6N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.9N 130.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.0N 133.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.0N 136.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
080400Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 117.2W.
08JUL22. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 884 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081000Z, 081600Z, 082200Z AND 090400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 080235
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 07 2022

Bonnie appears to once again be on the cusp of weakening this
evening based on satellite imagery. A 2112 UTC GMI microwave pass
showed the storm had about a 30 nm diameter eye, which was also
apparent on visible imagery. Since this overpass, the eye has
become obscured by clouds and the infrared imagery shows the cloud
tops are warming throughout the central dense overcast. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates range between 90 kt and 65 kt. The
initial intensity was held at 80 kt, which is a blend of the TAFB
and SAB estimates.

The hurricane is quickly approaching the 26 C ocean surface
temperature threshold. There is also a considerably dry air mass
working its way around the system. These two environmental
conditions should weaken Bonnie, which is expected to become
post-tropical within about two days. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close the
consensus guidance.

The initial motion has turned more westward and increased to near
15 kt. The track philosophy has not changed. A mid-level ridge
continues to steer Bonnie westward and as the storm weakens, it is
expected to increase in forward speed as it follows the lower trade
winds. The model guidance is very tightly clustered and the NHC
track forecast remains quite similar to both the previous advisory
and the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 18.1N 116.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 18.6N 119.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 19.2N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 19.9N 130.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 10/1200Z 20.0N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 11/0000Z 20.0N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 080234
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 07 2022

...BONNIE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 116.9W
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 116.9 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A general westward motion
at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Bonnie is expected to weaken below hurricane strength on
Friday and then become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 080234
TCMEP4

HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
0300 UTC FRI JUL 08 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 116.9W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 105SE 90SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 116.9W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 116.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.6N 119.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.2N 122.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.9N 130.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.0N 133.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.0N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 116.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 072200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 041
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 17.5N 114.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 114.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.1N 117.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.7N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.3N 124.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.6N 128.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.8N 131.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.9N 135.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
072200Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 115.5W.
07JUL22. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 923 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080400Z, 081000Z, 081600Z AND 082200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 072037
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 07 2022

Bonnie's satellite presentation has improved since this morning
with the formation of a well-defined 15-n mi-wide eye and cloud
tops as cold as -70 to -75 degrees Celsius. The hurricane has
seemingly not weakened, and the initial intensity remains 80 kt as
a blend of Dvorak estimates of 5.0 and 4.0 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. Bonnie is forecast to move over increasingly cooler
waters and into a drier, more stable atmosphere within the next day
or so, and those factors should induce a resumption of weakening.
Given the hurricane's improved structure, the official intensity
forecast is a little higher than the IVCN consensus at 12 hours,
but then falls in line with the consensus guidance after that time.
Bonnie could lose all organized deep convection by Saturday, and it
is therefore shown as a post-tropical cyclone in 48 hours. The
post-tropical low is expected to degenerate into a trough by day 4
(Monday).

The initial motion is a little faster toward the west-northwest
(285/13 kt). The track guidance is more tightly packed than
normal, and there is high confidence that Bonnie will turn westward
and accelerate tonight, reaching its fastest motion Friday night.
The weakening low is expected to continue on a quick westward
track south of the low-level ridge until it dissipates. The new
NHC track forecast is right on top of the previous prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 17.7N 115.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 18.1N 117.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 18.7N 121.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 19.3N 124.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 19.6N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 10/0600Z 19.8N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 10/1800Z 19.9N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 072036
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 07 2022

...BONNIE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF CLARION ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 115.3W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 115.3 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the
west with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight, with a
quick westward motion forecast to continue through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Bonnie is expected to weaken below hurricane strength on
Friday and then become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km). Over the past few hours, a Mexican navy automatic weather
station on Clarion Island reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70
km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (86 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 072036
TCMEP4

HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
2100 UTC THU JUL 07 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 115.3W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 115.3W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 114.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.1N 117.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.7N 121.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.3N 124.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.6N 128.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.8N 131.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.9N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 115.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 071614

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 07.07.2022

HURRICANE BONNIE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 113.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.07.2022 0 17.2N 113.4W 970 69
0000UTC 08.07.2022 12 17.9N 116.3W 979 57
1200UTC 08.07.2022 24 18.4N 119.7W 989 47
0000UTC 09.07.2022 36 19.2N 123.5W 998 44
1200UTC 09.07.2022 48 19.5N 127.7W 1005 38
0000UTC 10.07.2022 60 19.7N 131.7W 1010 32
1200UTC 10.07.2022 72 19.7N 135.4W 1012 29
0000UTC 11.07.2022 84 19.5N 138.5W 1013 27
1200UTC 11.07.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 39.4N 61.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.07.2022 36 40.9N 58.6W 1010 36
1200UTC 09.07.2022 48 43.0N 51.2W 1006 37
0000UTC 10.07.2022 60 46.9N 42.7W 1003 37
1200UTC 10.07.2022 72 50.9N 32.6W 1000 35
0000UTC 11.07.2022 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 35.5N 60.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.07.2022 108 35.5N 58.9W 1011 28
1200UTC 12.07.2022 120 36.3N 56.7W 1014 26
0000UTC 13.07.2022 132 37.2N 55.4W 1017 22
1200UTC 13.07.2022 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071614

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 071614

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.07.2022

HURRICANE BONNIE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 113.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.07.2022 17.2N 113.4W STRONG
00UTC 08.07.2022 17.9N 116.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.07.2022 18.4N 119.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.07.2022 19.2N 123.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.07.2022 19.5N 127.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.07.2022 19.7N 131.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.07.2022 19.7N 135.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.07.2022 19.5N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 39.4N 61.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.07.2022 40.9N 58.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.07.2022 43.0N 51.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.07.2022 46.9N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.07.2022 50.9N 32.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 35.5N 60.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.07.2022 35.5N 58.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 12.07.2022 36.3N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2022 37.2N 55.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071614

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 071600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 17.2N 113.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 113.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.9N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.5N 119.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.1N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.6N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.8N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.9N 133.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
071600Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 114.1W.
07JUL22. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 955 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072200Z, 080400Z, 081000Z AND
081600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 071436
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022

The overall satellite presentation of Bonnie has not changed much
this morning. An earlier AMSR2 microwave overpass revealed a
well-defined low-level eye, but the deep convection was fragmented
over the southwestern portion of the circulation. The latest
subjective Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB
are 5.0 and 4.0, respectively, which supports maintaining an
intensity of 80 kt. Bonnie will be crossing the 26C isotherm later
today, and into a drier and more stable environment over the next
24-48 hours. These factors should result in steady to rapid
weakening beginning later today or tonight. Simulated satellite
imagery from the global models suggest Bonnie will cease to produce
deep convection in 48-60 h, and the official forecast calls for
Bonnie to become a remnant low by late Saturday. Additional spin
down is expected after that time, and the system should degenerate
into a trough of low pressure shortly after day 3.

Bonnie is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt. A subtropical
ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the storm
westward to west-northwestward. As Bonnie weakens it is expected to
accelerate more westward as it comes under the influence of the
stronger low-level trade wind flow. The new forecast is similar to
the previous advisory and remains near the center of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 17.3N 113.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 17.9N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 18.5N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 19.1N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 19.8N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1200Z 19.9N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 071436
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022

...BONNIE HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS...
...WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 113.7W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 113.7 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is expected to
weaken below hurricane strength by Friday and become a post-
tropical cyclone by late Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 071435
TCMEP4

HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
1500 UTC THU JUL 07 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 113.7W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 113.7W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 113.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.9N 116.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.5N 119.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.1N 122.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.8N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.9N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 113.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 071000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 039//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 17.0N 111.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 111.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.7N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.4N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.0N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.6N 124.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.9N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.1N 131.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
071000Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 112.6W.
07JUL22. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 986 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071600Z, 072200Z, 080400Z AND 081000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 070851
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
300 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022

The convection associated with Bonnie is gradually losing
organization as the cyclone continues to feel the effects of shear
and moves over cooler waters. However, while there has been no
distinguishable eye feature for several hours in IR imagery, a
just-received GMI 37 GHz microwave overpass shows a well-defined
low-level eye under the convective overcast. Objective and
subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 60-90 kt, which
is a greater than normal spread. However, the estimates are
trending downward, and based on this the initial intensity is
decreased to an uncertain 80 kt. The 34-kt wind radii have been
reduced based on recent scatterometer data.

Bonnie is moving over progressively cooler water and into a dry
air mass. This combination should cause steady to rapid weakening.
Current expectations are that Bonnie will stop producing convection
between 48-60 h and become a post-tropical cyclone. The system is
expected to decay to a remnant low by 72 h, and the dynamical
models are in good agreement that it will weaken to a trough by 96
h. The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the
intensity guidance and has only minor adjustments from the previous
forecast.

The initial motion is 290/12 kt as Bonnie is steered by a mid-level
ridge to its north. There is no change to the track forecast
philosophy and little change to the forecast from the previous
advisory. The ridge is predicted to steer Bonnie west-northwestward
for the next couple of days until its circulation weakens and the
resulting shallower vortex follows the faster, westward trade wind
flow. The new track forecast lies in the middle of the tightly
clustered track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 17.1N 112.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 17.7N 114.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 18.4N 117.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 19.0N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 19.6N 124.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 19.9N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 10/0600Z 20.1N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 070850
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
300 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022

...BONNIE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 112.5W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 112.5 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with
higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is expected to
weaken below hurricane strength by Friday and become a post-
tropical cyclone in a couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 070850
TCMEP4

HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
0900 UTC THU JUL 07 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 112.5W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 112.5W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 111.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.7N 114.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.4N 117.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 120.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.6N 124.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.9N 128.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.1N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 112.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 070411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.07.2022

HURRICANE BONNIE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 111.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.07.2022 0 16.7N 111.0W 971 66
1200UTC 07.07.2022 12 17.2N 113.6W 968 70
0000UTC 08.07.2022 24 17.8N 116.4W 975 65
1200UTC 08.07.2022 36 18.4N 119.7W 988 54
0000UTC 09.07.2022 48 19.1N 123.4W 998 43
1200UTC 09.07.2022 60 19.6N 127.5W 1006 36
0000UTC 10.07.2022 72 19.7N 131.5W 1010 30
1200UTC 10.07.2022 84 19.7N 135.0W 1012 29
0000UTC 11.07.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 34.5N 66.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.07.2022 132 34.5N 66.5W 1016 27
0000UTC 13.07.2022 144 35.8N 64.9W 1016 20


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070410

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 070410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.07.2022

HURRICANE BONNIE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 111.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.07.2022 16.7N 111.0W STRONG
12UTC 07.07.2022 17.2N 113.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.07.2022 17.8N 116.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.07.2022 18.4N 119.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 09.07.2022 19.1N 123.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.07.2022 19.6N 127.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.07.2022 19.7N 131.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.07.2022 19.7N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 34.5N 66.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.07.2022 34.5N 66.5W WEAK
00UTC 13.07.2022 35.8N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070410

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 038//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 16.7N 110.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 110.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.4N 113.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.1N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.7N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.3N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.7N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.0N 130.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.2N 136.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 111.5W.
07JUL22. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1021 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071000Z, 071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 070237
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Over the past several hours, Bonnie appears to have succumbed to
the effects of northwesterly wind shear. Satellite infrared
imagery shows no distinguishable eye feature and cold cloud tops of
-80C or less are only present in southeastern quadrant of the storm.
The initial intensity has been lowered to 85 kt because of the
recent reduction of inner core convective organization. This is
between the final T and Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a dry air mass ahead of Bonnie.
This atmospheric environment, and decreasing sea surface
temperatures, are expected to continue weakening the storm
gradually. Within about a day, the tropical cyclone should cross
into ocean temperatures of less than 26 C which will likely quicken
the rate of weakening. Bonnie is forecast to become post-tropical
by 60 hours, but simulated satellite infrared imagery from the GFS
and ECMWF suggest this transition could occur even sooner. The
official intensity forecast is close to the previous advisory and
lies on the lower end of the intensity guidance.

The hurricane continues to move to the west-northwest at about 12
kt on the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its north. This
synoptic feature is predicted to steer Bonnie west-northwestward
for the next couple of days until its circulation weakens and the
shallower vortex follows the faster, westward trade wind flow. The
updated NHC track forecast is slightly north of the one from
the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus model
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 16.9N 111.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 17.4N 113.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 18.1N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 18.7N 119.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 19.3N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 19.7N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 10/0000Z 20.0N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0000Z 20.2N 136.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 070235
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022

...BONNIE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 111.3W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 111.3 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 070234
TCMEP4

HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
0300 UTC THU JUL 07 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 111.3W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 111.3W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 110.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.4N 113.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.1N 116.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.7N 119.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.3N 122.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.7N 126.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.0N 130.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 20.2N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 111.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 062200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 16.3N 109.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 109.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.9N 111.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.6N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.2N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.8N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.3N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.6N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.8N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
062200Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 110.3W.
06JUL22. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1067 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070400Z, 071000Z, 071600Z AND 072200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 062037
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
300 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022

The satellite presentation of Bonnie has not changed much since
this morning. At times, the small eye has become a little more
distinct and warmer in infrared satellite pictures, but then
becomes cloud filled. This has led to a waffling of subjective
Dvorak estimates between about T4.5 and T5.0 depending on the
infrared eye temperature of each picture. Objective numbers
remain lower, but have increased somewhat today. The initial
intensity is maintained at 90 kt, and is based on the latest
SAB Dvorak classification. Recent scatterometer data have helped
confirm the 34- and 50-kt wind radii.

Bonnie will be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface
temperatures later tonight and into a drier and more stable
environment which is likely to begin the weakening process.
After that time, a faster rate of filling is forecast as Bonnie
moves over sub 26C sea surface temperatures. The cyclone is
forecast to become post-tropical in about 72 hours, and dissipate
by the end of the 5-day forecast period. The updated NHC intensity
forecast is closest to the lower LGEM guidance.

Bonnie is moving on a motion between west and west-northwest at
about 10 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the system should
continue to steer the cyclone westward to west-northwestward during
the next couple of days. A faster and more westward motion is
likely by 72 hours as Bonnie weakens and is steered by the low level
trade wind flow. The new forecast is essentially an update of the
previous advisory and it lies closest to a blend of the latest
GFS and ECMWF tracks.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 16.5N 110.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 16.9N 111.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 17.6N 114.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 18.8N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 19.3N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 19.6N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 10/1800Z 19.8N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 062037
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
300 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022

...BONNIE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 110.1W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 110.1 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast to commence later tonight, and
continue through Saturday. Bonnie is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone in a few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 062036
TCMEP4

HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
2100 UTC WED JUL 06 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 110.1W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 110.1W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 109.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.9N 111.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.6N 114.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.8N 120.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.3N 124.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.6N 128.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 19.8N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 110.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 061620

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 06.07.2022

HURRICANE BONNIE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 108.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.07.2022 0 15.9N 108.7W 975 60
0000UTC 07.07.2022 12 16.7N 111.1W 973 66
1200UTC 07.07.2022 24 17.3N 113.7W 966 70
0000UTC 08.07.2022 36 17.9N 116.7W 976 63
1200UTC 08.07.2022 48 18.5N 120.2W 987 52
0000UTC 09.07.2022 60 19.3N 124.0W 1001 42
1200UTC 09.07.2022 72 19.8N 128.3W 1008 36
0000UTC 10.07.2022 84 19.9N 132.6W 1012 29
1200UTC 10.07.2022 96 19.8N 136.2W 1013 30
0000UTC 11.07.2022 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 38.8N 69.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.07.2022 48 38.8N 68.5W 1008 38
0000UTC 09.07.2022 60 40.5N 62.3W 1006 36
1200UTC 09.07.2022 72 43.6N 52.8W 1001 39
0000UTC 10.07.2022 84 46.5N 45.3W 1000 36
1200UTC 10.07.2022 96 51.6N 36.3W 997 38
0000UTC 11.07.2022 108 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 36.0N 59.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2022 120 36.0N 59.8W 1008 38
0000UTC 12.07.2022 132 33.4N 65.1W 1016 26
1200UTC 12.07.2022 144 33.3N 63.0W 1017 22

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 40.5N 11.2E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.07.2022 144 40.5N 11.2E 1013 23


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 061620

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 061620

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.07.2022

HURRICANE BONNIE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 108.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.07.2022 15.9N 108.7W STRONG
00UTC 07.07.2022 16.7N 111.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.07.2022 17.3N 113.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.07.2022 17.9N 116.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.07.2022 18.5N 120.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.07.2022 19.3N 124.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.07.2022 19.8N 128.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.07.2022 19.9N 132.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.07.2022 19.8N 136.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 38.8N 69.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.07.2022 38.8N 68.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 09.07.2022 40.5N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.07.2022 43.6N 52.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.07.2022 46.5N 45.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.07.2022 51.6N 36.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.07.2022 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 36.0N 59.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.07.2022 36.0N 59.8W WEAK
00UTC 12.07.2022 33.4N 65.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.07.2022 33.3N 63.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 40.5N 11.2E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.07.2022 40.5N 11.2E WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 061620

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 061600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 16.0N 108.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 108.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.5N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.0N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.6N 115.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.2N 119.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.8N 122.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.2N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.4N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
061600Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 109.1W.
06JUL22. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1108 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 45 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z, 071000Z AND 071600Z.
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 061449
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022

There's been quite a bit of improvement this morning in Bonnie's
inner core structure and a cloud-filled eye reappeared in first
light visible imagery. A 1216 UTC SSMI/S microwave pass revealed a
partial eyewall with about 70 percent coverage in the north through
southwest quadrants and recent enhanced infrared images show Bonnie
attempting to close off a white ring with -77C cloud top
temperatures. The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt for this
advisory, in accordance with the subjective satellite intensity
estimates. Bonnie's surface wind profile has been reduced in all
quadrants based on a 0448 UTC METOP-B scatterometer overpass and
subsequently has been adjusted downward in the forecast.

The predicted decrease in vertical wind shear has allowed Bonnie to
make a comeback. This sudden intensification is expected to be
temporary, however, and Bonnie should begin to weaken slowly on
Thursday while it begins its track over decreasing oceanic surface
temperatures. Dry, stable environmental conditions will also
contribute to its eventual dissipation by late this weekend. The
NHC forecast is again adjusted downward from the previous one and is
based mainly on the global models and the IVCN intensity aid.
Bonnie should degenerate to a remnant low in 4 days, if not earlier,
and open into a trough of low pressure early next week.

Bonnie's moving westward, or 280/10 kt within the westerly
mid-level steering flow of a subtropical ridge to the north. There
are no changes to the forecast track philosophy. The cyclone
should continue on a westward to west-northwestward fashion
with an increase in forward speed commencing Thursday. The
official forecast is essentially the same as last night's advisory
and agrees with the TVCE multi-model consensus.

Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will
continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico
today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 16.1N 108.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 17.6N 115.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 18.2N 119.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 18.8N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 19.2N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 10/1200Z 19.4N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 061446
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022

...RESILIENT BONNIE RESTRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 109.0W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 109.0 West. Bonnie is moving
a little slower toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward
to west-northwestward motion is forecast through the week with an
increase in forward speed beginning on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slight fluctuations in strength are possible
today. Gradual weakening is forecast to commence later tonight
continue through Saturday. Bonnie is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone in a few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico through today. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 061444
TCMEP4

HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
1500 UTC WED JUL 06 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 109.0W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.9W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.6N 115.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.2N 119.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.8N 122.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.2N 126.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 19.4N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 108.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 061000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 107.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 107.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.3N 109.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.8N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.4N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.0N 117.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.7N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.3N 124.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.0N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.0N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
061000Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 108.4W.
06JUL22. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1136 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 45 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061600Z, 062200Z, 070400Z AND 071000Z.
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 060837
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Bonnie continues to feel the effects of north-northeasterly shear,
with the central convection becoming less organized during the past
few hours. The various subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates have trended downward since the last advisory,
and based on this the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt. This
could be a little generous, as the CIMSS SATCON and ADT estimates
are currently 65-70 kt

The current shear is likely to diminish during the next 24 h.
However, the sea surface temperatures are expected to decrease
along the forecast track, with the cyclone reaching the 26C
isotherm in about 48 h and moving over colder water after that. In
addition, Bonnie is likely to encounter a much drier air mass after
about 24 h. The new intensity forecast now calls for Bobbie to
change little in strength during the next 24-36 h, followed by
steady weakening. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical
in about 96 h and to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by
120 h. The new intensity forecast has some downward adjustments
from the previous forecast and follows the general trend of the
intensity guidance.

Bonnie is moving 280/12 kt along the southern periphery of a
mid-level ridge to the north. This ridge is forecast to weaken a
bit in the next day or so and slightly reduce the forward speed of
the system for a couple of days. Later in the forecast period,
Bonnie is expected to weaken and become a shallow circulation,
which would result in the cyclone turning westward and accelerating
in the low-level trade wind flow. The new forecast track is an
update of the previous track and lies near the consensus models,
which are between the slightly faster UKMET and the slightly slower
GFS.

Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will
continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico for
another day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 15.9N 108.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 16.3N 109.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.8N 112.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 17.4N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 18.0N 117.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 18.7N 121.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 19.3N 124.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 20.0N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 11/0600Z 20.0N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 060837
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022

...BONNIE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE OPEN EASTERN
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 108.3W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 108.3 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-
northwestward motion is forecast through the week with a slight
decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through
Thursday. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday
night and continue through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 060836
TCMEP4

HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
0900 UTC WED JUL 06 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 108.3W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 108.3W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.3N 109.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.8N 112.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.4N 114.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.0N 117.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.7N 121.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.3N 124.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 20.0N 132.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 20.0N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 108.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 060409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.07.2022

HURRICANE BONNIE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 106.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.07.2022 0 15.6N 106.6W 963 71
1200UTC 06.07.2022 12 16.2N 108.8W 970 69
0000UTC 07.07.2022 24 16.7N 111.3W 970 66
1200UTC 07.07.2022 36 17.1N 114.0W 968 67
0000UTC 08.07.2022 48 17.7N 117.1W 975 62
1200UTC 08.07.2022 60 18.0N 120.6W 986 51
0000UTC 09.07.2022 72 18.6N 124.6W 995 47
1200UTC 09.07.2022 84 18.7N 128.9W 1004 40
0000UTC 10.07.2022 96 18.7N 132.9W 1008 34
1200UTC 10.07.2022 108 18.7N 136.7W 1010 31
0000UTC 11.07.2022 120 18.7N 140.1W 1011 31
1200UTC 11.07.2022 132 18.8N 143.4W 1012 28
0000UTC 12.07.2022 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 36.7N 63.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2022 132 36.9N 62.8W 1013 35
0000UTC 12.07.2022 144 37.2N 60.3W 1016 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060409

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 060409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.07.2022

HURRICANE BONNIE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 106.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.07.2022 15.6N 106.6W STRONG
12UTC 06.07.2022 16.2N 108.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.07.2022 16.7N 111.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.07.2022 17.1N 114.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.07.2022 17.7N 117.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.07.2022 18.0N 120.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.07.2022 18.6N 124.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.07.2022 18.7N 128.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.07.2022 18.7N 132.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.07.2022 18.7N 136.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.07.2022 18.7N 140.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2022 18.8N 143.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 36.7N 63.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.07.2022 36.9N 62.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.07.2022 37.2N 60.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060409

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 15.6N 106.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 106.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.1N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.6N 110.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.1N 113.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.7N 115.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.4N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.1N 122.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.0N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.0N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
060400Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 107.2W.
06JUL22. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1177 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061000Z, 061600Z, 062200Z AND 070400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 060234
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 PM MDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Bonnie's cloud pattern has deteriorated since the previous
advisory and the storm seems to be feeling the effects of some
moderate north-northeasterly shear. The eye has filled in and the
colder cloud tops (of less than -80C) are less prevalent in the
western portion of the circulation. The initial intensity has been
lowered to 95 kt, and this could be a generous estimate given the
recent degradation of the inner core on satellite imagery.
Vertical wind shear from the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance is
forecast to remain moderate in the next 12 hours and will likely
prevent Bonnie from strengthening further. The storm is then
expected to enter an increasingly drier environment, as seen in
water vapor imagery just to the west of the hurricane, and move
over cooler waters, which should speed up its weakening. Bonnie is
now expected to become post-tropical by day 4, which is consistent
with simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF global
models. The intensity forecast is mostly a continuation of the
previous advisory, but slightly lower because of the lowered
initial intensity.

Bonnie is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt along the southern
periphery of a mid-level ridge to the north. This ridge is
forecast to weaken a bit in the next day or so and slightly
reduce the forward speed of the system for a couple of days. As
the circulation weakens and becomes more shallow, it is expected to
turn more westward and increase in forward speed following the
lower-level flow. The official track forecast is very similar to
the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus aids.

Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will
continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico for
another day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 15.7N 107.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 16.1N 108.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 16.6N 110.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 17.1N 113.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 17.7N 115.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 18.4N 119.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 19.1N 122.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 20.0N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 11/0000Z 20.0N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 060233
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 PM MDT Tue Jul 05 2022

...BONNIE SENDS ROUGH SURF TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 107.1W
ABOUT 335 MI...545 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 107.1 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast through the week with a
slight decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight. Gradual
weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday and continue through
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 060232
TCMEP4

HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
0300 UTC WED JUL 06 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 107.1W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 107.1W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 106.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.1N 108.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.6N 110.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.1N 113.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.7N 115.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.4N 119.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.1N 122.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 20.0N 129.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 20.0N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 107.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 052200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 15.4N 105.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 105.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.9N 107.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.3N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.8N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.4N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.0N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.8N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.0N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.5N 133.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
052200Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 105.9W.
05JUL22. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1226 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060400Z, 061000Z, 061600Z AND 062200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 052034
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

SSMIS microwave data received after the release of the previous
advisory showed that the eye of Bonnie became less defined than
overnight. Although the eye is still evident in visible imagery,
it is less distinct in infrared satellite pictures than early
today. The surrounding cloud tops remain quite cold and subjective
Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB are
unchanged from this morning. As a result, the initial intensity is
held at 100 kt for this advisory.

Moderate northeasterly shear over the cyclone is likely to prevent
additional strengthening and little overall change in intensity is
expected through early Wednesday. After that time, gradually
decreasing sea surface temperatures and lower mid-level humidity is
likely to result in slow weakening. The pace of weakening is
expected to hasten in 60-72 h when Bonnie crosses the 26C isotherm
and moves into a drier and more stable air mass. Steady-to-rapid
weakening is then expected through the remainder of the period and
Bonnie is forecast to become post-tropical by day 5.

Bonnie is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. There continues
to be no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge
to the north of the cyclone should continue to steer Bonnie west to
west-northwestward throughout the entire forecast period. However,
some reduction in forecast speed is forecast during the next day or
two as the ridge weakens slightly. Later in the period, a faster
forward speed is forecast when Bonnie weakens and is steered more
by the low- to mid-level flow. The NHC forecast track is slightly
faster than the previous advisory beyond 72 hours, but remains
in best agreement with the multi-model consensus aids.

Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will
continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico for
another day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 15.5N 105.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 15.9N 107.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 16.3N 109.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 16.8N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 17.4N 114.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 18.8N 120.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 20.0N 127.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 20.5N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 052034
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

...LARGE SWELLS FROM BONNIE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 105.7W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 105.7 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast through the period with a
slight decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Bonnie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast
tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin Wednesday or
Wednesday night and continue through Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 052033
TCMEP4

HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
2100 UTC TUE JUL 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 105.7W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 105.7W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 105.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.9N 107.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.3N 109.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.8N 111.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.4N 114.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.8N 120.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 20.0N 127.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 20.5N 133.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 105.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 051611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.07.2022

HURRICANE BONNIE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 104.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.07.2022 0 14.8N 104.0W 960 83
0000UTC 06.07.2022 12 15.6N 106.5W 969 75
1200UTC 06.07.2022 24 16.2N 109.1W 976 62
0000UTC 07.07.2022 36 16.6N 111.6W 976 64
1200UTC 07.07.2022 48 16.9N 114.2W 974 65
0000UTC 08.07.2022 60 17.4N 117.2W 976 63
1200UTC 08.07.2022 72 17.9N 120.6W 984 51
0000UTC 09.07.2022 84 18.5N 124.5W 997 45
1200UTC 09.07.2022 96 18.9N 128.7W 1002 41
0000UTC 10.07.2022 108 19.0N 132.7W 1007 36
1200UTC 10.07.2022 120 19.1N 136.4W 1010 34
0000UTC 11.07.2022 132 19.2N 139.9W 1011 31
1200UTC 11.07.2022 144 19.2N 143.2W 1012 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 35.2N 61.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2022 144 35.4N 60.1W 1014 35


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051611

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 051611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.07.2022

HURRICANE BONNIE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 104.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.07.2022 14.8N 104.0W INTENSE
00UTC 06.07.2022 15.6N 106.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.07.2022 16.2N 109.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.07.2022 16.6N 111.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.07.2022 16.9N 114.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.07.2022 17.4N 117.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.07.2022 17.9N 120.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.07.2022 18.5N 124.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.07.2022 18.9N 128.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.07.2022 19.0N 132.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.07.2022 19.1N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.07.2022 19.2N 139.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2022 19.2N 143.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 35.2N 61.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.07.2022 35.4N 60.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051611

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 15.1N 103.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 103.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.6N 106.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.0N 108.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.3N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.8N 112.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.4N 115.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.2N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.5N 125.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.4N 131.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 104.5W.
05JUL22. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1284 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 41 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 051437
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Earlier microwave images reveal a well-developed inner core
structure with a 10-nm-wide eye, and impressive curved band
features in the west and south parts of the cyclone. The
surrounding cloud tops have cooled quite a bit during the past few
hours, but the eye temperature hasn't warmed that much. The initial
intensity is increased to 100 kt for this advisory and is supported
by a blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB.

It appears as though modest northeasterly shear has begun
to restrict the outflow some in the north portion of the cyclone,
and this shear is expected to persist during the next 24 hours.
Consequently, some fluctuations in strength are possible during the
period and the NHC forecast shows a slight increase in intensity in
12 hours in deference to the recent inner core improvement.
Afterward, the inhibiting shear should decrease, however,the GFS and
ECMWF SHIPS intensity models show the cyclone traversing cooler
oceanic surface temperatures and moving into a less favorable
thermodynamic surrounding environment. A combination of these
negative intensity contributions should cause Bonnie to slowly
weaken through the remainder of the period and the official
forecast follows suit.

Bonnie's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/12 kt.
A mid-tropospheric ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone
should keep it on a west to west-northwest heading through the
entire forecast period. Around mid-period, however, a weakness in
the ridge is forecast to develop over the Baja California
peninsula, which should temporarily slow Bonnie's forward speed.
The track forecast is a little faster than the previous one beyond
day 3 and is based on the TVCE multi-model consensus aid.

Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of
Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue
to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 15.3N 104.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 15.6N 106.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 16.0N 108.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 16.3N 110.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 16.8N 112.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 17.4N 115.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 18.2N 118.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 19.5N 125.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 20.4N 131.3W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 051433
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

...BONNIE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...FIRST OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 104.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 104.3 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast through the period with a
slight decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, the core of Bonnie is expected to move parallel
to, but remain south of the coast of southwestern Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Bonnie is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength
are possible through Thursday. A gradual weakening trend is
expected to begin thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 051432
TCMEP4

HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
1500 UTC TUE JUL 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 104.3W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 104.3W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 103.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.6N 106.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.0N 108.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.3N 110.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.8N 112.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.4N 115.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.2N 118.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 19.5N 125.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 20.4N 131.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 104.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 051000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 102.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 102.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.5N 105.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.9N 107.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.2N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.5N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.1N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.8N 117.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.0N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.0N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
051000Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 103.4W.
05JUL22. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1332 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 41 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051600Z, 052200Z, 060400Z AND 061000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 050842
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

While Bonnie continues to generate well-organized central
convection with cloud tops temperatures near -80C, the eye has
become less distinct over the past several hours. There has been
little change in the various subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates, so the initial intensity remains 90 kt in best
agreement with subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB.

The hurricane is starting to experience moderate northerly to
northeasterly shear, and this will likely continue through the next
24-36 h. The shear is expected to limit additional strengthening,
and the new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the
guidance in calling for a 90-95 kt intensity during this time.
After 36 h, the shear is forecast to diminish, but by that time
Bonnie will be moving over cooler sea surface temperatures and into
a drier air mass. This should lead to gradual weakening starting
after 60 h and continuing for the remainder of the forecast period.

The initial motion is 290/15 kt. A deep-layer ridge to the north
of the hurricane should cause a general west-northwestward to
westward motion through the forecast period, with a slowing of the
forward speed during the first 48 h as the cyclone passes to the
south of a weakness in the ridge. The new forecast track is in the
center of the tightly-clustered track guidance and lies close to
the various consensus models.

Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of
Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue
to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 15.1N 103.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 15.5N 105.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 15.9N 107.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 16.2N 109.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 16.5N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 17.1N 114.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 17.8N 117.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 19.0N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 20.0N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 050841
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

...BONNIE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 103.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 103.2 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-
northwestward to westward motion with some decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the
core of Bonnie is expected to move parallel to, but remain south
of, the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next
day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible through Thursday.
A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Bonnie could cause areas of heavy
rainfall during the next day or so across portions of southern
and southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 050840
TCMEP4

HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
0900 UTC TUE JUL 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 103.2W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 103.2W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 102.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.5N 105.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.9N 107.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.2N 109.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.5N 111.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.1N 114.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.8N 117.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 19.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 20.0N 129.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 103.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 050411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.07.2022

HURRICANE BONNIE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 101.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.07.2022 0 14.1N 101.1W 973 67
1200UTC 05.07.2022 12 15.2N 104.3W 974 80
0000UTC 06.07.2022 24 15.6N 107.1W 984 56
1200UTC 06.07.2022 36 16.1N 109.2W 985 51
0000UTC 07.07.2022 48 16.4N 111.7W 986 53
1200UTC 07.07.2022 60 16.7N 114.0W 983 58
0000UTC 08.07.2022 72 17.5N 116.8W 979 62
1200UTC 08.07.2022 84 18.1N 120.5W 988 52
0000UTC 09.07.2022 96 18.8N 124.5W 999 45
1200UTC 09.07.2022 108 19.2N 128.5W 1007 34
0000UTC 10.07.2022 120 20.0N 132.7W 1011 28
1200UTC 10.07.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 35.5N 68.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.07.2022 132 35.5N 68.0W 1008 35
0000UTC 11.07.2022 144 35.6N 64.9W 1008 38


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050410

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 050411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.07.2022

HURRICANE BONNIE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 101.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.07.2022 14.1N 101.1W STRONG
12UTC 05.07.2022 15.2N 104.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.07.2022 15.6N 107.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.07.2022 16.1N 109.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.07.2022 16.4N 111.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.07.2022 16.7N 114.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.07.2022 17.5N 116.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.07.2022 18.1N 120.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.07.2022 18.8N 124.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.07.2022 19.2N 128.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.07.2022 20.0N 132.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 35.5N 68.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.07.2022 35.5N 68.0W WEAK
00UTC 11.07.2022 35.6N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050410

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 14.3N 100.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 100.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.1N 103.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.5N 105.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 15.8N 108.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.1N 110.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.5N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.1N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.4N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.7N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 101.7W.
05JUL22. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1418 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND 060400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 050243
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that Bonnie continues to gradually
strengthen this evening. A 0112 UTC SSMIS microwave pass reveals a
compact inner core with an eye less than 10 nm. Upper-level outflow
and convective banding appears to be fairly well-defined over the
western and southern quadrants of the storm. Subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates range from 77 kt to 90 kt. The initial intensity
has been increased to 90 kt in favor of the higher estimate, based
on increasingly cold cloud tops near the core.

Bonnie is expected to be in a relatively conducive environment for
the next day or so. Based on current satellite trends, some
additional strengthening seems likely. However, most of the
intensity guidance does not show significant intensification beyond
24 hours, possibly due to the moderate vertical shear in the
near-storm environment. By Wednesday, the wind shear is expected to
decrease, but lower mid-level relative humidities and cooling sea
surface temperatures should become a limiting factor. Therefore,
the official forecast shows some additional short-term strengthening
followed by gradual weakening. This forecast is slightly higher
than the previous advisory for the first 24 hours.

The storm has jogged a little to the north in the past few hours,
but the longer-term motion is still west-northwestward at 14 kt.
Bonnie is being steered by a deep-layer ridge to its north and
north-northeast which is expected to build westward and keep the
system on a general west-northward trajectory. The NHC track
prediction is shifted slightly north of the previous one on account
of the shorter-term northward shift, and is very near the consensus
model forecast.

Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of
Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue
to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 14.5N 101.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 15.5N 105.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 15.8N 108.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 16.1N 110.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 17.1N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 19.7N 126.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 050242
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

...BONNIE STRENGTHENS FURTHER...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 101.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 101.4 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
west-northwestward or westward motion with some decrease in forward
speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track,
the core of Bonnie is expected to move parallel to, but remain
south of, the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the
next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
through tomorrow morning, followed by little change in intensity
until Wednesday. A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin
thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Bonnie could cause areas of heavy
rainfall during the next day or so across portions of southern
and southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 050242
TCMEP4

HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
0300 UTC TUE JUL 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 101.4W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 101.4W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 100.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.5N 105.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.8N 108.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.1N 110.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.1N 115.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 19.7N 126.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 101.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 13.7N 99.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 99.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.4N 102.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.1N 104.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.6N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.8N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.1N 111.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.5N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 17.8N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.3N 125.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
042200Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 100.5W.
04JUL22. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1489 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050400Z, 051000Z, 051600Z AND 052200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 042057
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Bonnie continues to strengthen and it has a become a fairly well
organized hurricane. Visible satellite images show a distinct eye
and inner core, and outer bands continue to become better
established. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are 4.5/77 kt
and 5.0/90 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, and the initial
intensity is nudged up to 85 kt based on that data.

Bonnie has been on a steady strengthening trend since it emerged
over the eastern Pacific a couple of days ago, and it could
strengthen some more through tonight. Although none of the
intensity models show Bonnie reaching major hurricane status, it
seems like a possibility given recent trends. However, by early
Tuesday, the models suggest that the intensification trend will
likely plateau as northeasterly shear is expected to increase to the
15-20 kt range. The shear is expected to let up beginning Wednesday,
but Bonnie will be tracking over progressively cooler waters,
especially late in the period. The net result seems to suggest
little change in strength from 12-72 hours, followed by steady
weakening once Bonnie moves over sub 26C waters and into a drier
air mass in about 4 days. This forecast lies at the high end of the
guidance in the short term, but is near the consensus aids beyond 48
hours.

The hurricane is moving westward at 15 kt on the south-southwest
side of a deep-layer ridge. Since the subtropical ridge is
expected to build westward, this should keep Bonnie on a west to
west-northwest path during the next several days. There is some
speed, or along-track, differences in the models, but they all show
a similar theme. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and near the various consensus models.

Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of
Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue
to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 13.9N 100.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 14.4N 102.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 15.1N 104.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 15.6N 107.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 15.8N 109.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 16.1N 111.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 16.5N 113.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 17.8N 119.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 19.3N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 042057
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

...BONNIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...BRINGING ROUGH SURF AND THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 100.3W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Bonnie was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 100.3 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west to west-
northwest motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of
Bonnie is expected to move parallel to, but remain south of, the
coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next day or
two.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
through tonight, followed by little overall change in intensity
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Bonnie could cause areas of heavy
rainfall during the next day or so across portions of southern
and southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 042057
TCMEP4

HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
2100 UTC MON JUL 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 100.3W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 100.3W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.4N 102.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.1N 104.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.6N 107.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.8N 109.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.1N 111.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.5N 113.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 17.8N 119.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 19.3N 125.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 100.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 041600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 13.6N 98.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 98.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 14.4N 101.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.1N 104.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.6N 106.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.0N 108.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.2N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.4N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.6N 117.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.1N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
041600Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 99.3W.
04JUL22. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1540 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 27
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 041448
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Bonnie's satellite presentation has improved this morning with a
ragged eye becoming more apparent in both infrared and visible
satellite imagery. An earlier AMSR2 microwave overpass that
arrived after the release of the previous advisory, and more
recent SSMIS imagery revealed a fairly well-defined low- to
mid-level eye feature. Subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB
and SAB are T4.5 or 77 kt. Objective estimates from UW/CIMSS are
lagging a bit, but recent raw T-numbers have increased as the eye
has become better defined. The advisory intensity is set at 80
kt, near the higher end of the estimates due to the continued
improvement in structure.

Bonnie's intensity forecast is a bit tricky this morning as
expected subtle changes in shear throughout the forecast
period could have larger-than-normal implications on the
forecast. In the very near term, some additional strengthening is
likely while Bonnie remains within an area of moderate northeasterly
shear and otherwise favorable environmental conditions. The NHC
wind speed forecast is near the high end of the guidance during the
first 12-24 hours given the recent upward trend in organization. The
shear is forecast to increase on Tuesday, which the guidance
suggests will cause Bonnie's intensity to plateau or perhaps
fluctuate over the next 2-3 days. By 72 hours, global models now
indicate that the shear will decrease while the system is still
over marginally warm water. As a result, the NHC forecast keeps
Bonnie's intensity slightly higher through 96 h than the previous
advisory. Shortly after that time, rapid weakening is likely to
begin as the cyclone moves over waters less than 26C and into a
less favorable thermodynamic environment.

Bonnie is moving briskly westward to west-northwestward with a
longer term motion of 285/16 kt. The track forecast reasoning has
not changed over the past day or so. Bonnie should continue to
move generally west-northwestward with some reduction in forward
speed while it is steered by a large mid-level to the north. This
motion will take Bonnie roughly parallel to but well offshore the
coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next day or
two. The latest NHC track forecast is again an update of the
previous advisory, and it remains close to the TVCE multi-model
consensus aid.

The forecast keeps tropical-storm-force winds associated with
Bonnie offshore the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, but
coastal locations can still expect rough surf and the potential for
rip currents today and Tuesday as Bonnie passes offshore.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 13.7N 99.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 14.4N 101.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 15.1N 104.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 15.6N 106.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 16.0N 108.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 16.2N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 16.4N 112.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 17.6N 117.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 19.1N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 041447
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

...BONNIE STRENGTHENING...
...BRINGING ROUGH SURF AND THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 99.0W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Bonnie was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 99.0 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A west-
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of
Bonnie is expected to move parallel to, but remain south of, the
coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next day or
two.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
today, followed by little overall change in intensity Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Bonnie could cause areas of heavy
rainfall during the next day or so across portions of southern
and southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 041447
TCMEP4

HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
1500 UTC MON JUL 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.0W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.0W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 98.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.4N 101.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.1N 104.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.6N 106.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.0N 108.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.2N 110.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.4N 112.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 17.6N 117.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 19.1N 124.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 99.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 96.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 96.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 14.3N 99.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.1N 102.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.8N 104.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.2N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.4N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.6N 111.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.5N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.0N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 97.4W.
04JUL22. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1616 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND
051000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 040841
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

The satellite presentation of Bonnie is less organized than last
night. The hurricane is still contending with some deep-layer
northeasterly shear, as evidenced by the sharp cloud edge noted on
the upshear side of its circulation. Additionally, the ragged eye
previously seen in infrared imagery degraded overnight, and the
inner core convection has been reduced to a curved convective band
that wraps around the eastern and southern portions of the center.
There are no recent microwave or scatterometer data available to
better assess changes in Bonnie's structure this morning. The latest
objective and subjective intensity estimates range from 53 to 77 kt,
and the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 70 kt.

Despite the presence of 10-15 kt of deep-layer shear over Bonnie,
the hurricane still has a window to strengthen during the next
couple of days. Bonnie is expected to remain within a moist
mid-level environment over very warm SSTs through Wednesday, and the
majority of the intensity guidance still supports some strengthening
within these favorable environmental conditions. However, rapid
intensification appears somewhat less likely based on decreasing
values in the latest SHIPS RI and DTOPS indices. The official NHC
intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous one, but
still lies on the high end of the guidance during the first 48 h,
closest to the DSHP and LGEM aids. Thereafter, the intensity is
forecast to level off and eventually weaken as the system moves into
a drier environment over cooler SSTs. The latter half of the NHC
forecast trends closer to the multi-model consensus.

The initial motion of Bonnie is estimated to be west-northwestward,
or 285/16 kt. There are no changes to the track forecast reasoning.
Bonnie is expected to continue moving generally west-northwestward
for the next couple of days, roughly parallel to but well offshore
the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico. The latest NHC track
forecast is basically an update of the previous one, and it remains
close to the TVCE consensus aid. This forecast track keeps
tropical-storm-force winds associated with Bonnie offshore the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico, but coastal locations can still
expect rough surf and the potential for rip currents today and
Tuesday as Bonnie passes offshore.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 13.6N 97.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.3N 99.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 15.1N 102.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 15.8N 104.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 16.2N 107.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 16.4N 109.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 16.6N 111.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 19.0N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 040840
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

...BONNIE EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH SURF TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 97.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 97.3 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through midweek. On the forecast
track, the center of Bonnie is expected to move parallel to, but
remain south of, the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through midweek.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Bonnie could cause areas of heavy
rainfall during the next couple of days across portions of southern
and southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 040839
TCMEP4

HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
0900 UTC MON JUL 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 97.3W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 97.3W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 96.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.3N 99.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.1N 102.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.8N 104.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.2N 107.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.4N 109.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.6N 111.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 19.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 97.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 040409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 04.07.2022

HURRICANE BONNIE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 94.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.07.2022 0 12.6N 94.9W 992 46
1200UTC 04.07.2022 12 13.4N 98.4W 991 49
0000UTC 05.07.2022 24 14.5N 101.3W 993 46
1200UTC 05.07.2022 36 15.7N 104.3W 999 37
0000UTC 06.07.2022 48 16.1N 107.2W 999 33
1200UTC 06.07.2022 60 16.6N 109.3W 997 39
0000UTC 07.07.2022 72 16.9N 111.6W 996 36
1200UTC 07.07.2022 84 17.5N 113.9W 995 44
0000UTC 08.07.2022 96 18.3N 116.5W 995 47
1200UTC 08.07.2022 108 19.0N 120.1W 1000 45
0000UTC 09.07.2022 120 19.2N 123.9W 1008 31
1200UTC 09.07.2022 132 19.3N 127.7W 1012 25
0000UTC 10.07.2022 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 38.3N 69.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.07.2022 144 38.3N 69.6W 1007 32


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 040409

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 040400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 026
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 04E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 12.9N 94.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 94.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 13.7N 97.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 14.6N 100.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.4N 103.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.9N 106.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.3N 108.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.4N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.1N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.5N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040400Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 95.7W.
04JUL22. HURRICANE 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1709 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 040236
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Bonnie's cloud pattern continues to become better organized on both
geostationary and microwave imagery. Cold cloud tops are beginning
to surround a ragged eye on infrared images and there is nearly a
closed ring evident from passive microwave data, indicating that
the inner core continues to become more defined. Using a blend
of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity is
increased to 70 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane has strong upper-level outflow over its western
semicircle and limited outflow to the east, due to moderate
easterly shear. However, this shear is not likely to offset the
otherwise conducive environmental factors of warm ocean waters and a
moist atmosphere for the next couple of days. The SHIPS Rapid
Intensification, RI, Index shows a little more than a 30 percent
chance of RI during the next day or so. The official intensity
forecast shows more strengthening than in the previous advisories
and is a blend of the LGEM and HWRF guidance through 48 hours, and
is close to the Decay-SHIPS model after that time interval. Gradual
weakening is likely in 3-5 days due to cooler SSTs and lower
humidities.

Bonnie moved just a bit north of the previous track, but appears to
still be on a west-northwestward heading or about 290/15 kt.
A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to be
mostly maintained over the next several days. This should result in
a continued west-northwestward or westward motion through the
forecast period. The official track forecast follows the
multi-model consensus and keeps the hurricane moving parallel to and
offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.

The main impact from Bonnie is expected to be rough surf and the
potential for rip currents along the coast of Guatemala
through tonight and southern/southwestern Mexico Monday and
Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.2N 95.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 13.7N 97.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 14.6N 100.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 103.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 15.9N 106.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 16.3N 108.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 16.4N 110.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 17.1N 114.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 18.5N 120.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 040235
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

...BONNIE BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE 2022 EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 95.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 95.5 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion should continue for the next several days. On the
forecast track, the core of Bonnie is expected to remain south of,
but move parallel to, the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico
during the next couple of days.

Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Outer rain bands north of Bonnie?--s track will bring
periods of heavy showers into portions of southern Mexico through
Monday night. These bands are expected to produce between 1 and 3
inches of rain across southern Oaxaca and Guerrero, with locally
higher totals along the southernmost coastal areas in Oaxaca.

SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts
of Guatemala, and southern and southwestern Mexico during the next
few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 040234
TCMEP4

HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
0300 UTC MON JUL 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 95.5W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 95.5W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 94.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.7N 97.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.6N 100.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.4N 103.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.9N 106.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.3N 108.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.4N 110.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 17.1N 114.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 18.5N 120.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 95.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 12.1N 93.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 93.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 13.0N 96.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 13.8N 99.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.7N 102.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.3N 105.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.7N 107.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.0N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.6N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 17.7N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
032200Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 94.5W.
03JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1792
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 032040
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Convective banding associated Bonnie has continued to increase
since the previous advisory, with the primary band now wrapping
completely around the estimated center. Visible satellite imagery
and a recent ATMS microwave overpass suggest that the inner core
also continues to become better established. The latest subjective
Dvorak estimates are 65 and 55 kt, from TAFB and SAB respectively,
and UW/CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates have increased
to a little above 55 kt. Based on the these data, the initial
intensity has been raised to 60 kt for this advisory.

The outflow over Bonnie is still somewhat restricted over the
eastern portion of the circulation owing to some moderate easterly
shear. The shear, however, is not likely to be strong enough to
prevent strengthening, and with warm SSTs and a moist atmosphere
ahead, Bonnie is forecast to steadily intensify during the next 36
hours or so. The NHC intensity forecast now calls for a little
faster rate of strengthening during the first day or so, but shows
a similar peak intensity as the previous advisory as northeasterly
shear is expected to increase over the system between 48 and 72
hours. After that time, decreasing SSTs and a drier mid-level
environment are likely to cause gradual weakening late in the
period. The updated intensity forecast is close to the ICON
consensus aid, but is a little below the SHIPS and HWRF guidance.

Bonnie is moving west-northwestward or 285/15 kt. There has been no
change to the track forecast philosophy. Bonnie is forecast to
remain on a west-northwestward heading to the south of a mid-level
ridge over the next several days, and this motion will steer
Bonnie generally south of, but parallel to, the coast of southern
and southwestern Mexico. The track guidance remains tightly
clustered, and the NHC track lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

The main impact from Bonnie is expected to be rough surf and the
potential for rip currents along the coast of Guatemala
through tonight and southern/southwestern Mexico Monday and
Tuesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 12.3N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 13.0N 96.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 13.8N 99.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 14.7N 102.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 15.3N 105.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 15.7N 107.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 16.0N 109.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 16.6N 113.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 17.7N 119.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 032040
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

...BONNIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...ROUGH SURF AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 94.1W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 94.1 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion should continue for the next several days. On the
forecast track, the core of Bonnie is expected to remain south, but
move parallel to, the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next day or so, and Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Bonnie could cause areas of heavy
rainfall during the next couple of days across portions of extreme
southern and southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts
of Guatemala, and southern and southwestern Mexico during the next
few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 032039
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
2100 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 94.1W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 94.1W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 93.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.0N 96.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.8N 99.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.7N 102.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.3N 105.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.7N 107.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 16.6N 113.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 17.7N 119.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 94.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 031611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 03.07.2022

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 91.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.07.2022 0 11.7N 91.4W 999 41
0000UTC 04.07.2022 12 12.8N 94.8W 999 44
1200UTC 04.07.2022 24 13.5N 98.4W 1001 42
0000UTC 05.07.2022 36 14.4N 101.5W 1000 39
1200UTC 05.07.2022 48 15.5N 104.6W 1002 36
0000UTC 06.07.2022 60 15.8N 107.1W 1002 29
1200UTC 06.07.2022 72 16.3N 109.3W 1003 28
0000UTC 07.07.2022 84 16.6N 111.8W 1002 30
1200UTC 07.07.2022 96 16.7N 114.1W 1003 31
0000UTC 08.07.2022 108 17.1N 116.5W 1003 29
1200UTC 08.07.2022 120 17.3N 119.3W 1007 25
0000UTC 09.07.2022 132 17.8N 122.1W 1010 23
1200UTC 09.07.2022 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031610

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 031600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 11.7N 91.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 91.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 12.5N 94.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 13.3N 97.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 14.1N 100.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 14.9N 103.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.4N 105.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 15.7N 108.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.2N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.0N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031600Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 92.6W.
03JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1882
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032200Z, 040400Z, 041000Z AND 041600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 031445
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
1500 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 92.4W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 92.4W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 91.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 12.5N 94.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.3N 97.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.1N 100.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.9N 103.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.4N 105.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.7N 108.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.2N 112.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 92.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 031435
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Bonnie appears to be gradually gaining strength. Satellite images
show a strong convective band, with a significant amount of
lightning, on the western side of the system. Recent microwave
data indicate than an inner core is becoming better established,
with hints of an eye apparent in the 37 GHz channel. The latest
Dvorak classifications were both 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and
the initial intensity is nudged up to 55 kt based on that data.

The storm is currently experiencing a moderate amount of easterly
shear, but that is expected to let up some during the next day or
so. The improving upper-level wind pattern combined with a moist
air mass and warm SSTs should allow Bonnie to steadily strengthen
through Monday. Rapid intensification is a possibility, and the
SHIPS model shows a fair chance (40 percent) of that occurring
within the next 24 hours. In a couple of days, however, easterly
shear is expected to increase and SSTs gradually cool beneath the
system. These factors should end the strengthening trend and
perhaps induce slow weakening. The NHC intensity forecast shows a
faster rate of strengthening than the previous one in the short
term, but is otherwise unchanged.

Bonnie is still moving relatively quickly westward at 280/14 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer Bonnie
westward to west-northwestward during the next several days, roughly
parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. The track models are in
good agreement, and the new forecast lies close to the various
consensus aids. Based on the forecast, no watches are required for
Guatemala or southern/southwestern Mexico, but interests there
should closely monitor updates, as a northward adjustment to the
track could require tropical storm watches for portions of this
coastline.

The main impact from Bonnie is expected to be rough surf and the
potential for rip currents along the coast of Guatemala today and
southern/southwestern Mexico Monday and Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 11.9N 92.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 12.5N 94.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 13.3N 97.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 14.1N 100.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 14.9N 103.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 15.4N 105.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 15.7N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 16.2N 112.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 031434
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

...BONNIE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...
...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND ROUGH SURF AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coasts of Guatemala and southern and
southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 92.4 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion should continue for the next several
days. On the forecast track, the core of Bonnie is expected to
remain south, but move parallel to, the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple
of days, and Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Bonnie could cause areas of
heavy rainfall during the next couple of days across portions of
Guatemala, and southern and southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts
of Guatemala, and southern and southwestern Mexico during the next
few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 031000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 11.4N 90.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 90.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 12.1N 92.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 12.8N 95.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 13.6N 98.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.5N 101.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.2N 104.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.6N 106.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.0N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.5N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031000Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 90.9W.
03JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1964
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS
11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 030849
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Geostationary satellite imagery shows a large, persistent convective
cloud mass displaced to the west of Bonnie's low-level center by
some easterly shear. Infrared cloud top temperatures colder than -80
deg C indicate the convection remains vigorous, and it is showing
more signs of curvature in recent imagery after appearing somewhat
amorphous overnight. Unfortunately, no recent microwave or
scatterometer data are available to assess recent structural
changes. A blend of the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB supports holding the initial intensity at 50 kt.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for Bonnie to strengthen
during the next few days. In the near term, the deep-layer easterly
shear is forecast to slightly diminish while Bonnie traverses warm
SSTs of 28-29 deg C within a moist mid-level environment. The
official NHC forecast calls for Bonnie to become a hurricane by
Monday and continue strengthening during the next 48 h or so. While
not explicitly forecast, the SHIPS guidance suggests some increased
potential for rapid intensification. The latest NHC forecast is
raised slightly higher than the previous one, in line with the IVCN
consensus aid. Increasing northeasterly shear and gradually cooler
SSTs along its forecast track should cause Bonnie's intensity to
level off and gradually decrease by days 4-5.

Bonnie is still moving quickly westward at 275/14 kt. A mid-level
ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer Bonnie westward to
west-northwestward during the next several days, roughly parallel to
the coast of southern Mexico. The track guidance remains in
excellent agreement, and the latest NHC forecast is very similar to
the previous one given the tightly clustered track models. Once
again, this forecast keeps the center of Bonnie far enough offshore
that the tropical-storm-force winds are not forecast to reach the
coast of Central America or Mexico at this time. However, interests
in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern and southwestern
Mexico should closely monitor updates to Bonnie's forecast track, as
a slight northward adjustment to the track could require tropical
storm watches for portions of this coastline.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Areas of heavy rainfall are possible across portions of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico during the next couple of
days. This rainfall could cause some instances of flash flooding
and mudslides across the region.

2. Interests along the coasts of Guatemala and southern and
southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
While the center of Bonnie is forecast to stay offshore, any
northward adjustment in the track forecast could require the
issuance of a tropical storm watch for part of this area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 11.6N 90.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 12.1N 92.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 12.8N 95.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 13.6N 98.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 14.5N 101.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 15.2N 104.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 15.6N 106.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 16.0N 111.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 16.5N 115.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 030848
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

...BONNIE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
...HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA,
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 90.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coasts of Guatemala and southern and
southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 90.6 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion should continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall are possible during the next
couple of days across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern and southwestern Mexico. This rainfall could cause some
instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region.

SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts
of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern and southwestern Mexico
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 030847
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
0900 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 90.6W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 90.6W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 90.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.1N 92.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 12.8N 95.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.6N 98.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.5N 101.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.2N 104.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.6N 106.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 16.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 90.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 030410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 03.07.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 35.2N 80.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.07.2022 0 35.2N 80.0W 1014 24
1200UTC 03.07.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 88.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.07.2022 0 11.1N 88.5W 1002 34
1200UTC 03.07.2022 12 11.6N 91.2W 1002 40
0000UTC 04.07.2022 24 12.2N 94.2W 1000 40
1200UTC 04.07.2022 36 13.0N 97.7W 1001 38
0000UTC 05.07.2022 48 13.7N 100.6W 1000 37
1200UTC 05.07.2022 60 14.8N 103.4W 1002 35
0000UTC 06.07.2022 72 15.5N 106.4W 1001 31
1200UTC 06.07.2022 84 16.0N 108.5W 1002 29
0000UTC 07.07.2022 96 16.4N 111.1W 1002 28
1200UTC 07.07.2022 108 16.7N 113.2W 1003 28
0000UTC 08.07.2022 120 17.0N 115.3W 1005 25
1200UTC 08.07.2022 132 17.5N 117.8W 1008 23
0000UTC 09.07.2022 144 17.8N 120.6W 1010 22


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030410

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 030410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.07.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 35.2N 80.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.07.2022 35.2N 80.0W WEAK
12UTC 03.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 88.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.07.2022 11.1N 88.5W WEAK
12UTC 03.07.2022 11.6N 91.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.07.2022 12.2N 94.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.07.2022 13.0N 97.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.07.2022 13.7N 100.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.07.2022 14.8N 103.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.07.2022 15.5N 106.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.07.2022 16.0N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.07.2022 16.4N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.07.2022 16.7N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.07.2022 17.0N 115.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.07.2022 17.5N 117.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.07.2022 17.8N 120.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030410

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 030323
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 22...Retransmitted
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

This evening's conventional satellite presentation consists of an
impressive deep convective curved band with -83C cloud tops
encompassing the west side of the cyclone. Earlier SSM/S and AMSR2
microwave passes revealed inner core ring development that was about
60 percent closed in the northern quadrants. There appears to be a
slight vertical tilt toward the west, more than likely due to the
period it spent moving across Nicaragua. The initial intensity is
raised to 50 kt and is based on a compromise of the various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.

The shear is low, the water is warm, and the atmosphere is moist,
all contributing to further strengthening during the next few days,
and Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane in 24 hours. Around
mid-period, the global models and the GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity
guidance show modest northeasterly shear impinging on Bonnie's
outflow pattern. As a result, the official intensity forecast
calls for a slight weakening beyond day 3.

Bonnie's initial motion is estimated to be due west or 270/15 kt.
A mid-tropospheric ridge stretching from the northern Gulf of
Mexico to the Baja California peninsula should cause the cyclone to
turn west-northwestward Sunday and continue in this heading through
the remainder of the forecast period. The global and regional
model track guidance remains in agreement, and these tightly
clustered aids, as well as the NHC forecast, takes Bonnie
approximately parallel to the coasts and keeps the
tropical-storm-force winds offshore of the southern coast of
Central America and Mexico. However, interests in coastal El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico should closely monitor
Bonnie's forecast track for the next few days as a slight northward
adjustment to the track could require tropical storm watches for
portions of this coastline.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of
Nicaragua, Costa Rica and the southern portion of El Salvador
through tonight. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash
flooding and mudslides across the region.

2. Interests along the coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala,
and southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
While the center of Bonnie is forecast to stay offshore, any
northward adjustment in the track forecast could require the
issuance of a tropical storm watch for part of this area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 11.3N 89.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 11.6N 91.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 12.4N 94.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 13.2N 97.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 14.1N 100.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 15.6N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 15.9N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 16.3N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 030400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 11.2N 88.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 88.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 11.6N 91.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 12.4N 94.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 13.2N 97.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 14.1N 100.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.1N 103.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.6N 105.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.9N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.3N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030400Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 89.7W.
03JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 2019
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 030234
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...BONNIE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...
...HEAVY RAINFALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NICARAGUA, COSTA
RICA AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF EL SALVADOR THROUGH THE NIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 89.5W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WNW OF CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 89.5 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the
west-northwest is expected on Sunday, and that motion should
continue for the next several days. Bonnie is expected to continue
moving away from Nicaragua and parallel to the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast, and Bonnie is
expected to become a hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: As Bonnie moves out over the Pacific, rainfall associated
with the outer bands will produce another 1 to 3 inches of rain
across northwest Costa Rica, southwest Nicaragua, and southern El
Salvador through tonight. This rainfall may cause some instances of
flash flooding and mudslides across the region.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 030233
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
0300 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 89.5W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 89.5W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 88.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.6N 91.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 12.4N 94.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.2N 97.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.1N 100.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.6N 105.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 15.9N 110.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 16.3N 114.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 89.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 022200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 11.2N 87.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 87.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 11.4N 89.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 12.0N 92.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 12.8N 95.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 13.7N 98.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.6N 101.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.2N 104.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.9N 108.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.4N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
022200Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 88.2W.
02JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 2083
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030400Z, 031000Z, 031600Z AND 032200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 022041
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Radar data from the Nicaraguan Weather Service in Las Nubes and
recent satellite imagery indicate that Bonnie has continued to
become better organized throughout the day. The well-defined center
of circulation and prominent banding south and west of the storm's
center have persisted for the last several hours. SAB and TAFB
both provided Dvorak estimates of 3.0/3.0, providing justification
to increase the initial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory.

Bonnie is still moving due west at 270/14 kt, and the track
forecast is largely unchanged from the prior advisory. A deep-layer
ridge located north of the storm will be the primary steering
influence throughout the forecast period as Bonnie turns
west-northwestward and is forecast to remain offshore and roughly
parallel to the coast of Central America and Mexico. The official
forecast is very similar to the consensus track aids. Although the
strongest winds are expected to remain offshore, interests in
coastal El Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico should
continue to monitor Bonnie's track for the next few days, as any
northward track adjustments could require tropical storm watches
for portions of this coastline.

Some continued strengthening is expected in the next day or two as
Bonnie is forecast to move over an area of warmer sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) and relatively low vertical wind shear. For
this reason, Bonnie is expected to reach hurricane strength in about
two days. The intensity forecast is near the center of the
guidance envelope, with some of the mesoscale hurricane models
showing more rapid strengthening than the official forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica will
continue tonight. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
expected.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 11.3N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 11.4N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 12.0N 92.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 12.8N 95.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 13.7N 98.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 14.6N 101.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 15.2N 104.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 15.9N 108.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 16.4N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 022040
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...BONNIE INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NICARAGUA COAST...
...WINDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 88.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WSW OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WNW OF CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The governments of Nicaragua and Costa Rica have discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warnings along the Pacific Coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 88.0 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the
west-northwest is expected on Sunday, and that motion should
continue for the next several days. Bonnie is expected to continue
moving away from Nicaragua and parallel to the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Bonnie is expected to become a
hurricane in the next couple days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: As Bonnie moves out over the Pacific, lingering rainfall
associated with the outer bands will produce another 1 to 3 inches
of rain across northwest Costa Rica, southwest Nicaragua, and
southern El Salvador through Saturday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 022040
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
2100 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA HAVE DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 88.0W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 88.0W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 87.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.4N 89.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.0N 92.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 12.8N 95.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.7N 98.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.6N 101.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.2N 104.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 15.9N 108.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 16.4N 112.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 88.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 021747
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
100 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...BONNIE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE IN BOTH
NICARAGUA AND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 87.5W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SW OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NW OF CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next few hours.

Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 87.5 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through the day today. A turn to the
west-northwest is expected tonight, and that motion should continue
for the next several days. Bonnie is expected to continue moving
away from Nicaragua and parallel to the coasts of Central America
and southern Mexico for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
after which Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Bonnie will continue to produce heavy rain across portions
of Nicaragua and Costa Rica today. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica, and these will likely continue for a couple of more
hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 021600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 11.2N 85.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 85.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 11.3N 88.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 11.7N 90.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 12.5N 93.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 13.4N 96.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 14.3N 99.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.1N 102.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.0N 107.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.6N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021600Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 86.6W.
02JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 04E (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 2153
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z AND 031600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 021553 CCA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 20...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...BONNIE MOVES OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA...
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE IN BOTH
NICARAGUA AND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...

Corrected Advisory Number


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 86.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM NW OF CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning on the Caribbean coast. The government of Costa Rica has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning on the Caribbean coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next few hours.

Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 86.4 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through the day today. A turn to the
west-northwest is expected tonight, and that motion should
continue for the next several days. Bonnie is expected to move away
from Nicaragua and parallel to the coasts of Central America and
southern Mexico for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, after
which Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Bonnie will continue to produce heavy rain across portions
of Nicaragua and Costa Rica today. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica, and these will likely continue for several more hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 021501 CCA
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 20...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Corrected advisory number

Radar data from the Nicaraguan Weather Service in Las Nubes
indicate that Bonnie has moved offshore from extreme southern
Nicaragua and becomes one of the rare tropical cyclones to
cross from the Atlantic Basin into the eastern Pacific Basin. The
center of circulation remains well-defined after crossing southern
Nicaragua last night, and satellite data during the last several
hours indicate that deep convection remains active near the center
of the storm. Given the robust structure apparent on radar and
satellite, the initial intensity is held steady at 35 kt for this
advisory, despite the land interactions during the past 12 hours or
so.

Bonnie is moving due west at 270/14 kt. The primary steering
influence throughout the forecast period is a deep-layer ridge
located north of the storm, which is expected to cause Bonnie to
track west-northwestward and remain offshore and roughly parallel to
the coast of Central America and Mexico. Track guidance is in good
agreement throughout the forecast period, and the official forecast
is very similar to the consensus track aids and the prior forecast.
Although the strongest winds are expected to remain offshore,
interests in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico
should continue to monitor Bonnie's track for the next few days, as
any northward track adjustments could require tropical storm watches
for portions of this coastline.

While the well-defined structure indicates that some strengthening
is possible in the next day or so, sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
are only marginally conducive for intensification and confined to a
relatively shallow depth. For this reason, intensification is
forecast to occur slowly for the next 24 hours until Bonnie reaches
warmer waters in about 36 hours, after which the rate of
intensification is forecast to increase. Similar to the previous
forecast, Bonnie is expected to reach hurricane strength in about
three days, and the intensity forecast is near the center of the
guidance envelope.

In association with Bonnie crossing into the eastern Pacific,
product headers for Bonnie have changed to eastern Pacific headers
beginning with this advisory, with the ATCF identifier changing from
AL022022 to EP042022.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica will
continue today. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific
coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning
areas for the next several hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 11.2N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 11.3N 88.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 11.7N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 12.5N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 13.4N 96.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 14.3N 99.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 15.1N 102.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 16.0N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 16.6N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hogsett


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 021457 CCA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022

CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ON THE CARIBBEAN COAST. THE GOVERNMENT OF COSTA RICA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE CARIBBEAN COAST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 86.4W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 86.4W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 85.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.3N 88.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.7N 90.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 12.5N 93.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.4N 96.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.3N 99.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.1N 102.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 16.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.6N 111.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 86.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 021451
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Radar data from the Nicaraguan Weather Service in Las Nubes
indicate that Bonnie has moved offshore from extreme southern
Nicaragua and becomes one of the rare tropical cyclones to
cross from the Atlantic Basin into the eastern Pacific Basin. The
center of circulation remains well-defined after crossing southern
Nicaragua last night, and satellite data during the last several
hours indicate that deep convection remains active near the center
of the storm. Given the robust structure apparent on radar and
satellite, the initial intensity is held steady at 35 kt for this
advisory, despite the land interactions during the past 12 hours or
so.

Bonnie is moving due west at 270/14 kt. The primary steering
influence throughout the forecast period is a deep-layer ridge
located north of the storm, which is expected to cause Bonnie to
track west-northwestward and remain offshore and roughly parallel to
the coast of Central America and Mexico. Track guidance is in good
agreement throughout the forecast period, and the official forecast
is very similar to the consensus track aids and the prior forecast.
Although the strongest winds are expected to remain offshore,
interests in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico
should continue to monitor Bonnie's track for the next few days, as
any northward track adjustments could require tropical storm watches
for portions of this coastline.

While the well-defined structure indicates that some strengthening
is possible in the next day or so, sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
are only marginally conducive for intensification and confined to a
relatively shallow depth. For this reason, intensification is
forecast to occur slowly for the next 24 hours until Bonnie reaches
warmer waters in about 36 hours, after which the rate of
intensification is forecast to increase. Similar to the previous
forecast, Bonnie is expected to reach hurricane strength in about
three days, and the intensity forecast is near the center of the
guidance envelope.

In association with Bonnie crossing into the eastern Pacific,
product headers for Bonnie have changed to eastern Pacific headers
beginning with this advisory, with the ATCF identifier changing from
AL022022 to EP042022.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica will
continue today. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific
coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning
areas for the next several hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 11.2N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 11.3N 88.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 11.7N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 12.5N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 13.4N 96.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 14.3N 99.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 15.1N 102.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 16.0N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 16.6N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 021450
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...BONNIE MOVES OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA...
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE IN BOTH
NICARAGUA AND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 86.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM NW OF CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning on the Caribbean coast. The government of Costa Rica has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning on the Caribbean coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next few hours.

Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 86.4 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through the day today. A turn to the
west-northwest is expected tonight, and that motion should
continue for the next several days. Bonnie is expected to move away
from Nicaragua and parallel to the coasts of Central America and
southern Mexico for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, after
which Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Bonnie will continue to produce heavy rain across portions
of Nicaragua and Costa Rica today. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica, and these will likely continue for several more hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 021449
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ON THE CARIBBEAN COAST. THE GOVERNMENT OF COSTA RICA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE CARIBBEAN COAST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 86.4W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 86.4W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 85.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.3N 88.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.7N 90.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 12.5N 93.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.4N 96.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.3N 99.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.1N 102.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 16.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.6N 111.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 86.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 021153
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
700 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...BONNIE WILL SOON MOVE OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA AND EMERGE OVER THE
PACIFIC...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA THROUGH THE DAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 85.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NW OF LIBERIA COSTA RICA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.

Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 85.8 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a continued
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
later today. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin
tonight or on Sunday and continue into Tuesday. On the forecast
track, Bonnie will emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean in the
next couple of hours. Bonnie will then move offshore of but
parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern
Mexico today through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast after Bonnie emerges over
the eastern Pacific later this morning and should continue through
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Bonnie will continue to produce heavy rain across portions
of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through today. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica, and these will likely continue for several more hours.

STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to subside along the
Caribbean coast of Nicaragua later this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 020858
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Overall, Bonnie's structure is holding together quite well as the
storm moves across Central America. While the coldest cloud tops
near the center have warmed somewhat, radar from the Nicaraguan
Weather Service in Las Nubes shows a healthy reflectivity structure.
In fact, after the last center fix the Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft made indicated a formative eyewall was developing
with Bonnie, a similar signature is now also currently observed with
Bonnie over Lake Nicaragua. Assuming there has been some weakening
of the wind field since Bonnie began moving over land, the
intensity is being reduced to an uncertain 35 kt for this advisory.

Bonnie was moving just north of due west from the recon fixes last
night, and the initial motion has been maintained at 275/14 kt. A
strong deep-layer ridge poleward of Bonnie should continue to steer
the cyclone west to west-northwestward for the majority of the
forecast period after it moves offshore. This track continues to
take Bonnie roughly parallel to the southern coast of Central
America and Mexico. The track guidance remains in good agreement
this cycle, and only slight changes to the forecast track were made,
mostly a somewhat faster motion at the end of the forecast period.
While the relatively small size of the tropical cyclone is currently
forecast to keep the highest winds offshore, interests in coastal El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico should continue to
monitor Bonnie's track for the next few days, as any northward track
adjustments could require tropical storm watches for portions of
this coastline.

So far Bonnie's structure does not appear to be that adversely
affected by its ongoing land interaction crossing Central America,
perhaps because it is traversing a relatively flat gap across Lake
Nicaragua, in between higher terrain to its north or south. However,
one thorn in the system's short-term intensity forecast is that sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) just offshore Nicaragua are not all that
warm, only between 26-27 C with a very shallow depth of these
marginally warm waters for the first 24 h or so. For this reason,
only slow intensification is forecasted early on, which is under the
majority of the guidance in this time frame. Afterwards, SSTs
markedly warm to above 28 C, and vertical wind shear is expected to
remain only light to moderate. Thus, a faster rate of
intensification is anticipated after 36 h, and Bonnie is still
forecast to become a hurricane in about three days. The latest
intensity forecast has been adjusted downward in the short-term, but
still peaks the storm as a 75-kt hurricane at the end of the
forecast period.

It is worth mentioning that Bonnie's low-level circulation is
expected to survive its passage across Central America, similar to
that of Hurricane Otto back in 2016. Thus, the system is expected to
retain its name even after it moves into the far eastern Pacific
later today. The intermediate advisory at 1200 UTC will be issued
under the same Atlantic header as before. Product headers will
change to eastern Pacific headers beginning with the next complete
advisory at 1500 UTC, with the ATCF identifier changing from
AL022022 to EP042022.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica today. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean
coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning
areas for the next several hours, and along the Pacific coasts of
Costa Rica and Nicaragua today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 11.3N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER LAKE NICARAGUA
12H 02/1800Z 11.3N 87.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
24H 03/0600Z 11.5N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 12.0N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 13.0N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 13.9N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 14.7N 101.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 16.4N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 020857
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...BONNIE NOW OVER LAKE NICARAGUA...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA THROUGH THE DAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 85.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...85 KM NE OF LIBERIA COSTA RICA
ABOUT 90 MI...165 KM SE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.

Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 85.1 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a continued
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
later today. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin
tonight or on Sunday and continue into Tuesday. On the forecast
track, Bonnie will move across Lake Nicaragua during the next
several hours and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean later this
morning. Bonnie will then move offshore of but parallel to the
coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico today through
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast after Bonnie emerges
over the eastern Pacific later today and should continue through
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Bonnie will continue to produce heavy rain across portions
of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through today. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica, and these will continue to spread westward to the
Pacific coast within the warning areas during the next few hours.

STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to subside along the
Caribbean coast of Nicaragua later this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

The intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT will be issued under
Atlantic AWIPS header MIATCPAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC.

The next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT will be issued as an
Eastern North Pacific Public Advisory under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4
and WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 020856
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022
0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA
* CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
6 TO 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 85.1W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 85.1W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 84.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.3N 87.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.5N 89.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.0N 91.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.0N 95.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.9N 98.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.7N 101.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.4N 110.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 85.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/1200Z

FUTURE INFORMATION ON BONNIE CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4...WMO HEADER
WTPZ24 KNHC.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 020547
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...BONNIE MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA BORDER...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ENE OF LIBERIA COSTA RICA
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.

Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located inland along the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border near latitude
11.0 North, longitude 84.5 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west
near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a continued westward motion with a
gradual decrease in forward speed is expected later today. A
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight or on Sunday
and continue into Monday. On the forecast track, Bonnie will move
across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica during the next
several hours and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean later this
morning. Bonnie will then move offshore of but parallel to the
coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico today through
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely during the next
several hours while the center of Bonnie crosses Nicaragua and Costa
Rica. The storm is forecast to re-intensify over the eastern
Pacific beginning later today and continuing through Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Bonnie will produce heavy rain across portions of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica through today. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica, and these will continue to spread westward to the
Pacific coast within the warning areas during the next few
hours.

STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to subside along the
Caribbean coast of Nicaragua through this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 020239
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite imagery indicate that the center of Bonnie has just made
landfall near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border. The aircraft
reported that prior to landfall, Bonnie was forming an inner wind
core with a radius of maximum winds of 5-10 n mi, and on the last
fix a 10 n mi wide eye was present. The maximum flight-level winds
were 61 kt at 850 mb, and the maximum reliable surface wind
estimates from the SFMR were in the 40-45 kt range. Based on these
data, the landfall intensity is set to a possibly conservative 45
kt.

The initial motion is now 270/14. A mid- to upper-level ridge to
the north of the cyclone should steer it generally westward for the
next 24 h or so, with the center crossing southern Nicaragua and
northern Costa Rica before reaching the eastern Pacific Saturday
morning. After that, the cyclone should turn west-northwestward
parallel to the southern coasts of Central America and Mexico, with
this general motion persisting through the remainder of the
forecast period. The track forecast guidance is tightly clustered,
and the new forecast track is little changed from the previous
track. Given the expected proximity to land, interests in coastal
El Salvador, Guatemala and southwestern Mexico should continue to
monitor Bonnie's progress during the next several days.

Bonnie's small inner core will probably not survive the passage
over land during the next 12 h, but the cyclone is still expected to
be a tropical storm when it reaches the eastern Pacific. Once
there, warm sea surface temperatures and a light shear environment
should allow re-intensification, and Bonnie is now forecast to
reach hurricane status about two days after it moves into the
Pacific. The new intensity forecast has some minor adjustments from
the previous forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica through Saturday. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides are expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean
coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning
areas for the next several hours, and along the Pacific coasts of
Costa Rica and Nicaragua overnight and early Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 10.9N 83.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 02/1200Z 10.9N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 03/0000Z 11.0N 88.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
36H 03/1200Z 11.6N 90.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 12.4N 93.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 13.3N 96.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 14.2N 99.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 15.5N 104.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 16.0N 109.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 020238
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...CENTER OF BONNIE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA
BORDER...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 83.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Colombia has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for San Andres.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located just inland over southeastern Nicaragua near latitude 10.9
North, longitude 83.8 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west near
16 mph (26 km/h), and a continued westward motion with a gradual
decrease in forward speed is expected into Saturday night. A
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin late Saturday night
or on Sunday and continue into Monday. On the forecast track,
the system will move across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa
Rica tonight and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday.
The system will then move offshore of but parallel to the coasts of
El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that before landfall maximum sustained winds increased to near 50
mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is likely while the
center of Bonnie crosses Nicaragua and Costa Rica. The storm
is forecast to re-intensify over the eastern Pacific Saturday night
and Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Bonnie will produce heavy rain across portions of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica, and these will spread westward to the Pacific coast
within the warning areas overnight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 020238
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022
0300 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAN ANDRES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA
* CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
6 TO 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG BOTH THE CARIBBEAN AND PACIFIC COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...AS WELL AS THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL
SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 83.8W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 15SE 15SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 83.8W AT 02/0300Z...INLAND
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 83.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 10.9N 85.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.0N 88.5W...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.6N 90.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 12.4N 93.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.3N 96.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.2N 99.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 15.5N 104.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 16.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 83.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 012345
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...CENTER OF BONNIE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 83.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 83.1 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and a continued
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
through Saturday night. A west-northwestward motion is expected to
begin on Sunday and continue into Monday. On the forecast track,
the system will make landfall near the border of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica in the next few hours, move across southern Nicaragua
and northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern
Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system will then move offshore of
but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern
Mexico Saturday through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall. After
landfall, short term weakening is likely, but Bonnie is expected to
restrengthen later this weekend and early next week over the
eastern Pacific.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Bonnie will produce heavy rain across
portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over San Andres
Island for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach the Tropical Storm Warning area along the
Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica in the next few hours
and will spread westward to the Pacific coast within the warning
areas overnight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 012033
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022


Bonnie is approaching the coast of Central America. Satellite
images indicate that the storm is becoming better organized, with
deep convection increasing near the center and banding features
becoming more prominent in all quadrants. The Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB were 3.0/45 kt and 2.0/30 kt, respectively, and
based on these estimates and the improvement in structure, the
initial wind speed is increased a little to 40 kt.

Bonnie is now moving due west at 270/15 kt, and this motion is
expected to continue until landfall late tonight near the
Nicaragua and Costa Rica border. Bonnie is forecast to emerge over
the eastern Pacific waters on Saturday, and it is forecast to turn
west-northwestward shortly thereafter and track parallel to the
coast of Central America and Mexico for the next several days. The
models have generally changed little this cycle, and the new NHC
track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. Given
the expected proximity to land, interests in coastal El Salvador,
Guatemala and southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor
Bonnie's progress during the next several days.

The tropical storm only has about 6 hours to strengthen before it
reaches the coast. However, the environment remains favorable and
given the improved structure, strengthening seems likely during
that time. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Bonnie prior to landfall. Although some weakening is
likely late tonight and early Saturday when the storm passes across
Central America, it is expected to remain a tropical cyclone.
Gradual intensification is expected later in the weekend and next
week as the cyclone remains in a low-shear and warm SST environment
over the eastern Pacific. The NHC intensity forecast shows a
slightly faster rate of intensification than the previous one and
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Nicaragua and Costa
Rica today into Saturday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides are expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres during the
next few hours, along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and
Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning areas later this
evening, and along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua
overnight and early Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 11.3N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 11.2N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 02/1800Z 11.3N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 03/0600Z 11.6N 89.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 12.3N 92.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 13.2N 94.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 14.1N 97.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 15.6N 103.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 16.4N 108.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 012033
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...BONNIE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...
...HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEGUN IN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 82.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 82.5 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and a continued
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
through Saturday night. A west-northwestward motion is expected to
begin on Sunday and continue into Monday. On the forecast track,
the system will move across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa
Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on
Saturday. The system will then move offshore of but parallel to the
coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday
through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Bonnie is expected to strengthen before it makes
landfall tonight. After landfall, short term weakening is likely,
but Bonnie is expected to restrengthen later this weekend and early
next week over the eastern Pacific.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Bonnie will produce heavy rain
across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over San Andres
Island this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach the Tropical Storm Warning area along the
Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica this evening and will
spread westward to the Pacific coast within the warning areas
overnight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 012032
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022
2100 UTC FRI JUL 01 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES COLOMBIA
* LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA
* CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
6 TO 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG BOTH THE CARIBBEAN AND PACIFIC COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...AS WELL AS THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL
SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 82.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 82.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 81.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.2N 84.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 20SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.3N 86.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.6N 89.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.3N 92.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.2N 94.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.1N 97.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 15.6N 103.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 16.4N 108.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 82.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/HOGSETT

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 011746
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...BONNIE APPROACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 81.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 81.8 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h) and a continued
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
through Saturday night. A west-northwestward motion is expected to
begin on Sunday and continue into Monday. On the forecast track,
the system will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today,
cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge
over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system will then
move offshore of but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador,
Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Bonnie is expected to strengthen before it makes landfall
tonight. After landfall, short term weakening is forecast on
Saturday, but Bonnie is expected to restrengthen later this weekend
and early next week over the eastern Pacific.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
north of the center.

The estimated central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Bonnie will produce heavy rain
across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over San Andres
Island this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
reach the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica by this evening and will spread westward
to the Pacific coast within the warning areas overnight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 011610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 01.07.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.9N 96.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.07.2022 0 28.9N 96.4W 1013 22
0000UTC 02.07.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 120.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.07.2022 0 15.2N 120.0W 1010 23
0000UTC 02.07.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 80.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.07.2022 0 11.4N 80.0W 1006 31
0000UTC 02.07.2022 12 11.4N 82.8W 1006 26
1200UTC 02.07.2022 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.0N 87.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.07.2022 36 10.5N 88.2W 1005 29
1200UTC 03.07.2022 48 10.8N 91.4W 1005 34
0000UTC 04.07.2022 60 11.7N 94.7W 1005 34
1200UTC 04.07.2022 72 12.2N 97.7W 1005 30
0000UTC 05.07.2022 84 13.3N 100.8W 1003 32
1200UTC 05.07.2022 96 14.1N 103.6W 1003 33
0000UTC 06.07.2022 108 15.2N 106.1W 1003 28
1200UTC 06.07.2022 120 16.0N 108.5W 1004 26
0000UTC 07.07.2022 132 16.3N 110.9W 1004 23
1200UTC 07.07.2022 144 16.4N 112.8W 1006 23


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011610

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 011610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.07.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.9N 96.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.07.2022 28.9N 96.4W WEAK
00UTC 02.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 120.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.07.2022 15.2N 120.0W WEAK
00UTC 02.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 80.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.07.2022 11.4N 80.0W WEAK
00UTC 02.07.2022 11.4N 82.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.0N 87.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.07.2022 10.5N 88.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 03.07.2022 10.8N 91.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.07.2022 11.7N 94.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.07.2022 12.2N 97.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.07.2022 13.3N 100.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.07.2022 14.1N 103.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.07.2022 15.2N 106.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.07.2022 16.0N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.07.2022 16.3N 110.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.07.2022 16.4N 112.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011610

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 011455
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

Tropical Storm Bonnie has formed this morning over the western
Caribbean Sea. Well-organized deep convection has persisted into
the morning, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission
found a well-defined circulation center located about 100 n mi east
of the Nicaragua coast. The plane found flight-level winds of 44
kt in the northeast quadrant, and SFMR data indicated 33 kt surface
winds, supporting an initial intensity of 35 kt. Another
reconnaissance mission is scheduled later today.

Bonnie is moving just south of due west at 260/17 kt and has
tracked slightly farther south than the prior forecast. The storm
is expected to make landfall late tonight near the Nicaragua and
Costa Rica border. After traversing Central America, Bonnie is
expected to emerge over the eastern Pacific waters on Saturday, and
it is forecast to turn west-northwestward shortly thereafter and
track parallel to the coast of Central America and Mexico for the
next several days. The track guidance is in good agreement during
the forecast period, with the ECMWF still the northernmost solution
and closest to land, while remaining offshore. The new forecast is
slightly south of the previous forecast, partially based on the
initial motion and position. Given the expected proximity to land,
interests in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala and southwestern Mexico
should continue to monitor Bonnie's progress during the next
several days.

Bonnie remains in a low-shear and warm SST environment and is
forecast to intensify during the next 12 hours prior to landfall.
The official intensity forecast at 12 hours is at the high end of
the intensity guidance. After Bonnie emerges into the eastern
Pacific, the intensity forecast is similar to the prior forecast and
aligned with the consensus intensity guidance for the remainder of
the forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Nicaragua and Costa
Rica today into Saturday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides are expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres today,
along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the
Tropical Storm Warning areas by this evening, and along the Pacific
coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua overnight and early Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 11.2N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 11.0N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 11.0N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 03/0000Z 11.1N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 03/1200Z 11.7N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 12.5N 93.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 13.4N 96.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 15.1N 102.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 16.3N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 011455
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...BONNIE HAS FORMED AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 81.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Hurricane Watch
for the Caribbean coast and issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Pacific coast.

The government of Costa Rica has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
to a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the Pacific coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 81.0 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h) and a continued
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is
expected through Saturday night. A west-northwestward motion is
expected to begin on Sunday and continue into Monday. On the
forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea today, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa
Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday.
The system will then move offshore of but parallel to the coasts of
El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Bonnie is expected to strengthen before it makes landfall
tonight. After landfall, short term weakening is forecast on
Saturday, but Bonnie is expected to restrengthen later this weekend
and early next week over the eastern Pacific.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
north of the center.

The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 1005 mb (29.68
inches) based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Bonnie will produce heavy rain
across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over San Andres
Island today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
reach the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica by this evening and will spread westward
to the Pacific coast within the warning areas overnight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 011454
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022
1500 UTC FRI JUL 01 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST AND ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST.

THE GOVERNMENT OF COSTA RICA HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE PACIFIC COAST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES COLOMBIA
* LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA
* CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG BOTH THE CARIBBEAN AND PACIFIC COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...AS WELL AS THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL
SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 81.0W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 81.0W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 80.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 20SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.0N 85.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.1N 88.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.7N 90.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 12.5N 93.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.4N 96.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 15.1N 102.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 16.3N 107.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 81.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 01/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 011315
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Bonnie Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
915 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the disturbance has now become Tropical Storm Bonnie over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea with maximum winds of 40 mph (65 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 915 AM EDT...1315 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 80.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 011157
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...DISTURBANCE ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 79.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and
Nicaragua later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.5 North, longitude 79.9 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a continued westward motion with a
gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday
night. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin on Sunday
and continue into Monday. On the forecast track, the system will
move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, cross southern
Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the
eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system will then move
offshore of but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala,
and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast today while the system approaches
the coast of Central America. Some weakening is expected tonight
while the system crosses Nicaragua and Costa Rica, but
restrengthening is anticipated Saturday through Monday while it
moves over the Pacific Ocean.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected to become a tropical storm today while slowing down over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across Nicaragua and Costa Rica today into Saturday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Nicaragua this evening or tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected over San Andres Island today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to reach the Tropical Storm Warning
area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica by this
evening and will spread westward to the Pacific coast within the
warning areas by Saturday morning.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 010852
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

The disturbance is finally looking like a bona fide tropical
cyclone. Deep convection has blossomed overnight in two primary
bands around the potential center. But whether there is a
well-defined center yet is the million dollar question. The system
is gradually slowing down, so if a center has not formed yet, it
should form very soon. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
mission is scheduled for later this morning to help determine if the
disturbance has become a tropical storm.

The disturbance is moving just south of due west and slightly slower
at 265/16 kt. The system is forecast to lose a little more latitude
today and slow down further while it approaches the coast of Central
America, and it is expected to move across southern Nicaragua or
northern Costa Rica tonight and emerge over the eastern Pacific
waters on Saturday. After that time, strong mid-level ridging will
remain established over the Gulf of Mexico, and the system is
expected to turn west-northwestward in 2 to 3 days. This track
essentially runs parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala,
and Mexico through the end of the forecast period, about 100-200
n mi off the coast. The track guidance has nudged slightly
northward during the time the system is over the Pacific Ocean, with
the ECMWF model the closest to the coast of Mexico, and the new NHC
track forecast is just a little north of the previous forecast on
days 4 and 5. Given the system's potential proximity to land,
interests all along the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.

The system has 12-24 hours to strengthen in an environment of low
vertical shear and over warm 28 degrees Celsius waters before it
reaches Central America. The official intensity forecast at 24
hours, around the time the system reaches land, is a little higher
than the available guidance to account for uncertainty in the
initial analysis and to maintain continuity from the previous
forecast. Some weakening is likely as the system moves over land,
but restrengthening is anticipated over the Pacific waters where
vertical shear is expected to remain low and waters will still be
warm.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Nicaragua and Costa
Rica today into Saturday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides are expected.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area
along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua this evening or tonight.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres today,
along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the
Tropical Storm Warning areas by this evening, and are possible
within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along the Pacific coasts of
Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 11.5N 79.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 01/1800Z 11.3N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 02/0600Z 11.3N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 02/1800Z 11.3N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
48H 03/0600Z 11.7N 89.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 12.4N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 13.3N 94.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 15.1N 100.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 16.6N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 010851
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...DISTURBANCE ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 79.2W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and
Nicaragua later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.5 North, longitude 79.2 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a continued westward motion with a
gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday
night. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin on Sunday
and continue into Monday. On the forecast track, the system will
move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, cross southern
Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the
eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system will then move
offshore of but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala,
and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast today while the system approaches the
coast of Central America. Some weakening is expected tonight while
the system crosses Nicaragua and Costa Rica, but restrengthening is
anticipated Saturday through Monday while it moves over the Pacific
Ocean.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected become a tropical storm today while slowing down over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across Nicaragua and Costa Rica today into Saturday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Nicaragua this evening or tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected over San Andres Island today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to reach the Tropical Storm Warning
area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica by this
evening and will spread westward to the Pacific coast within the
warning areas by Saturday morning.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 010851
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022
0900 UTC FRI JUL 01 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER TO LAGUNA DE PERLAS NICARAGUA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES COLOMBIA
* LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SANDINO NICARAGUA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG BOTH THE CARIBBEAN AND PACIFIC COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA LATER TODAY.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 79.2W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 79.2W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 78.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.3N 81.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.3N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.3N 86.5W...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.7N 89.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.4N 91.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.3N 94.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 15.1N 100.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 16.6N 105.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 79.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 01/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 010545
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 78.4W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of this
system. A Tropical Storm Warning may be necessary for portions of
the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.6 North, longitude 78.4 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a continued westward motion with a
decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the
forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea today, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica
tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast today while the system approaches
Central America. Weakening is expected while the system crosses
Central America, but restrengthening is forecast on Saturday once it
moves over the Pacific Ocean.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected become a tropical storm today while slowing down over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across Nicaragua and Costa Rica beginning later today.
The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Nicaragua this evening or tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected over San Andres Island today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
areas in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along
the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 010235
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

The disturbance has become somewhat better organized since the last
advisory, Last-light visible imagery showed a swirl of low-clouds
marking a vorticity center, and the convection has been increasing
near and northwest of the swirl. In addition, an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a pressure of 1005 mb when it
passed through the swirl. However, the plane was unable to close
off a well-defined circulation, and the aircraft wind data suggests
the possibility that the swirl is to the north of a broader
circulation. Thus, the system is still not a tropical cyclone.
The aircraft data indicates that the initial intensity remains near
35 kt.

The initial motion is 270/18. A mid-tropospheric ridge extending
southwestward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea should cause the
disturbance to move a little south of west for the next 12 to 24
h. Then from 24-72 h, a more zonally-oriented ridge is likely to
result in a generally westward track across Central America into
the eastern Pacific. After that time, the system should move
west-northwestward on the southwestern periphery of the ridge,
parallel to and south of the coast of Mexico. The new NHC track
forecast has no significant changes from the previous forecast and
lies close to the various consensus models.

While the warm-water, light-shear environment of the southwestern
Caribbean is favorable for development, so far little development
has occurred and the system is running out of time before it
reaches Central America. The intensity forecast calls for an
intensity of 50 kt by 24 h, and it is still possible that the
system could be near hurricane strength before it reached Central
America in about 30 hours. Weakening should occur while the system
crosses Central America, followed by re-intensification over the
Pacific. The new intensity forecast has some minor adjustments from
the previous forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is possible across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by
Friday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
expected.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua late Friday.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres on Friday,
along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the
Tropical Storm Warning areas late Friday, and are possible within
the Tropical Storm Watch areas along the Pacific coasts of Costa
Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 11.8N 77.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 01/1200Z 11.5N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 02/0000Z 11.3N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 11.4N 85.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 03/0000Z 11.6N 87.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
60H 03/1200Z 12.2N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 13.0N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 14.5N 99.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 16.0N 104.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 010234
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 77.7W
ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of this
system. A Tropical Storm Warning may be necessary for portions of
the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 11.8 North, longitude 77.7 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a continued mostly
westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
through Saturday. On the forecast track, the system will move
across the southwestern Caribbean Sea tonight through Friday, cross
southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica Friday night, and
emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast through Friday while the system
approaches Central America. Weakening is expected while the system
crosses Central America, but restrengthening is forecast on Saturday
once it moves over the Pacific Ocean.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected become a tropical storm while slowing down over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. The following
storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Nicaragua late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected over San Andres Island on Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas
in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by late Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along
the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 010234
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022
0300 UTC FRI JUL 01 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER TO LAGUNA DE PERLAS NICARAGUA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES COLOMBIA
* LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SANDINO NICARAGUA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG BOTH THE CARIBBEAN AND PACIFIC COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA ON FRIDAY.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 77.7W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 77.7W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 76.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.5N 80.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.3N 82.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.4N 85.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.6N 87.7W...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 12.2N 90.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.0N 93.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 14.5N 99.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 16.0N 104.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 77.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 01/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 302335
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
800 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE IS
BECOMING SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 76.9W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.9 North, longitude 76.9 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a continued mostly westward motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On
the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea this evening through Friday, cross southern Nicaragua
or northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge over the eastern
Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast through Friday while the system
approaches Central America. Weakening is expected while the system
crosses Central America, but restrengthening is forecast on Saturday
once it moves over the Pacific Ocean.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected become a tropical storm while slowing down over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. The following
storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Nicaragua late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected over San Andres Island on Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas
in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by late Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along
the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 302041
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

Deep convection associated with the disturbance is minimal, and in
fact one could argue that the system lacks sufficient convection
for classification via the Dvorak technique. The main band of
shower activity is located well to the north of the location of
the low-level vorticity maximum. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters
were not able to close off a definite center of circulation,
although they did report some light southwest winds over the
southern portion of the system just to the north of Colombia.
Observations from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum winds remain near 35 kt. Since the models generally agree
that the system will slow its forward speed beginning tonight, it is
still likely that it will develop a better-defined low level
circulation soon.

The initial motion estimate remains at 270/17 for now. A
mid-tropospheric ridge extending southwestward into the
northwestern Caribbean Sea should cause the disturbance to move a
little south of west for the next 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter, a
more zonally-oriented ridge is likely to result in a generally
westward track across Central America and into the eastern Pacific.
In 3 to 5 days, the system should move west-northwestward on the
southwestern periphery of the ridge, to the south of Mexico. The
NHC track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected model
consensus predictions.

The environment for the system looks conducive for strengthening up
to landfall, with very low vertical shear, warm waters, and a
moist low- to mid-level air mass. After weakening during
its passage across Central America, re-strengthening is expected
over the eastern Pacific. The official intensity forecast is near
the high end of the intensity model guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is possible across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by
Friday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
expected.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua late Friday.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres on Friday,
along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the
Tropical Storm Warning areas late Friday, and are possible within
the Tropical Storm Watch areas along the Pacific coasts of Costa
Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 12.0N 75.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 01/0600Z 11.6N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 01/1800Z 11.3N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 11.3N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 02/1800Z 11.4N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
60H 03/0600Z 11.8N 89.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 12.5N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 14.0N 97.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 15.4N 103.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 302040
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...DISTURBANCE HEADED FOR NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 75.8W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
12.0 North, longitude 75.8 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a continued mostly westward motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On
the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea today through Friday, cross southern Nicaragua or
northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge over the eastern
Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast through Friday while the system
approaches Central America. Weakening is expected while the
system crosses Central America, but restrengthening is forecast on
Saturday once it moves over the Pacific Ocean.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected become a tropical storm while slowing down over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. The following
storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Nicaragua late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected over San Andres Island on Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas
in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by late Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along
the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 302040
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022
2100 UTC THU JUN 30 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER TO LAGUNA DE PERLAS NICARAGUA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES COLOMBIA
* LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SANDINO NICARAGUA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG BOTH THE CARIBBEAN AND PACIFIC COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 75.8W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 75.8W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 74.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.6N 78.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.3N 81.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.3N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.4N 86.5W...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.8N 89.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.5N 91.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 97.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 15.4N 103.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 75.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 01/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 301744
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...DISTURBANCE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...
...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 74.9W
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
12.0 North, longitude 74.9 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a continued mostly westward motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On
the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea today through Friday, cross southern Nicaragua or
northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge over the eastern
Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast through Friday while the system
approaches Central America. Weakening is expected while the
system crosses Central America, but restrengthening is forecast on
Saturday once it moves over the Pacific Ocean.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected become a tropical storm while slowing down over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
locally heavy rain across portions of northern Colombia for the
next several hours, then across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday.
The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Northern Colombia: 3 to 5 inches.

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Nicaragua late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected over San Andres Island on Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas
in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by late Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along
the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 301609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 30.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 113.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.06.2022 0 13.3N 113.7W 1010 21
0000UTC 01.07.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 26.9N 96.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.06.2022 0 26.9N 96.6W 1014 21
0000UTC 01.07.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.0N 76.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.06.2022 0 10.0N 76.1W 1009 29
0000UTC 01.07.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 37.7N 14.5E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.06.2022 0 37.7N 14.5E 1009 19
0000UTC 01.07.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 11.1N 81.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.07.2022 36 11.0N 83.2W 1006 25
1200UTC 02.07.2022 48 10.2N 86.3W 1006 27
0000UTC 03.07.2022 60 10.5N 88.3W 1004 32
1200UTC 03.07.2022 72 10.8N 91.7W 1004 36
0000UTC 04.07.2022 84 11.5N 95.0W 1005 32
1200UTC 04.07.2022 96 12.3N 98.2W 1005 31
0000UTC 05.07.2022 108 12.8N 101.5W 1003 33
1200UTC 05.07.2022 120 13.4N 104.7W 1002 34
0000UTC 06.07.2022 132 14.3N 107.4W 1001 31
1200UTC 06.07.2022 144 15.2N 110.2W 1002 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.5N 90.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.07.2022 72 10.8N 91.7W 1004 36
0000UTC 04.07.2022 84 11.5N 95.0W 1005 32
1200UTC 04.07.2022 96 12.3N 98.2W 1005 31
0000UTC 05.07.2022 108 12.8N 101.5W 1003 33
1200UTC 05.07.2022 120 13.4N 104.7W 1002 34
0000UTC 06.07.2022 132 14.3N 107.4W 1001 31
1200UTC 06.07.2022 144 15.2N 110.2W 1002 33


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 301609

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 301609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 113.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.06.2022 13.3N 113.7W WEAK
00UTC 01.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 26.9N 96.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.06.2022 26.9N 96.6W WEAK
00UTC 01.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.0N 76.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.06.2022 10.0N 76.1W WEAK
00UTC 01.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 11.1N 81.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.07.2022 11.0N 83.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.07.2022 10.2N 86.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.07.2022 10.5N 88.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.07.2022 10.8N 91.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.07.2022 11.5N 95.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.07.2022 12.3N 98.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.07.2022 12.8N 101.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.07.2022 13.4N 104.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.07.2022 14.3N 107.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.07.2022 15.2N 110.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.5N 90.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.07.2022 10.8N 91.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 04.07.2022 11.5N 95.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.07.2022 12.3N 98.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.07.2022 12.8N 101.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.07.2022 13.4N 104.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.07.2022 14.3N 107.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.07.2022 15.2N 110.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 301609

>