Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for ROSLYN-22
in Mexico

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000940
Name ROSLYN-22
Glide number: TC-2022-000345-MEX
From - To 20 Oct - 24 Oct
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 290 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 213 km/h Category 4
Maximum storm surge 1.2 m (23 Oct 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS NOAA 46 km/h 1.2 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 216 km/h 0.5 m 483 mm 1.5
GFS 173 km/h 0.4 m 415 mm 0.5
ECMWF n.a n.a. n.a. n.a.
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Mexico - Tropical cyclone NINETEEN (ECHO 20 Oct 2022)Thu, 20 Oct 2022 09:55

  • A new tropical cyclone named NINETEEN, formed over the eastern North Pacific Ocean is moving northwest and on 20 October at 3.00 UTC, its centre was located about 236 km south-west of Acapulco City (Guerrero State) with maximum sustained winds of 56 km/h (tropical depression).
  • NINETEEN is forecast to continue north-west on 20-22 October strengthening, and then turn north-east on 23 October over the eastern North Pacific Ocean. After that, on 23-24 October, it could make landfall over the western coast of Nayarit State.
  • For the next 24 hours, moderate to heavy rain with strong winds is expected most over the western areas of Guerrero, Michoacán, Jalisco, Colima, and Nayarit.
Mexico - Hurricane ROSLYN (ECHO 24 Oct 2022)Mon, 24 Oct 2022 10:40

  • The passage of Hurricane ROSLYN on 23 October over north-western and northern Mexico caused floods, landslides, and a number of strong wind-related events, which resulted in fatalities and damage. 
  • In Nayarit State, where ROSLYN made landfall in the midday of 23 October (UTC) as a Cat. 3 Hurricane, national authorities report two fatalities (one in Santiago Ixcuintla, and one in Rosamorada). About 30 houses have been damaged in Bahía de Banderas, as well as some sections of highways. Flash floods and power outages have been reported in Puerto Vallarta Town in the neighbouring Jalisco State.
  • The remnants of ROSLYN are expected to bring additional rainfall and strong winds on 24-25 October across northern and north-eastern Mexico, particularly in Durango, Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, Zacatecas, Coahuila y Colima. 
Detailed event map. European Union, 2022. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

Articles: 764 | About casualties: 53 | Last hour: 0

26/10/2022 - Meteo Cronaca diretta: (Video) Messico, l'uragano Roslyn ... 2022-10-26T18:39+0200.

Meteo Cronaca diretta: (Video) Messico, l'uragano Roslyn distrugge la costa dello stato di Nayarit. L'uragano Roslyn ha provocato ingenti danni in Messico: venti quasi a 200 km/h hanno spazzato molte località, come si può ben vedere nel
...(more)
Hurricane Roslyn has minimal effects on Mexican crops2022-10-26T14:10+0200.

While the latest hurricane to make the headlines, Hurricane Roslyn made landfall in Mexico on Sunday, growers are to date reporting minimal impacts on crops. Reports indicate that the hurricane, which moved into a tropical storm by Sunday e
...(more)
Meteo Cronaca diretta: (Video) Messico colpito dalla potenza dell'urag ... 2022-10-25T17:47+0200.

Meteo Cronaca diretta: (Video) Messico colpito dalla potenza dell'uragano Roslyn, venti fino a 200km/h. L'uragano Roslyn ha provocato ingenti danni in Messico: venti quasi a 200 km/h hanno spazzato molte località, come si può ben vedere
...(more)
Natural Hazards Monitoring - 24 October 20222022-10-25T17:46+0200.

Hurricane. Mexico. On 24 October 2022, the Government of Mexico, provided information on the passage of Hurricane Roslyn in the Nayarit state, Mexico, indicating the hurricane is considered category 4. Additionally, media has reported 2 dea
...(more)

Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (39), (2), DesInventar (1), WMO (1), INFORM (2),