Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for ROSLYN-22
in Mexico
24 Oct 2022 03 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2022-000345-MEX
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population 290 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 213 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 1.2 m (23 Oct 12:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    23 Oct 2022 09:00 - 23 Oct 2022 15:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 46 km/h 1.2 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 213 km/h 1.2 m n.a. 2.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      46 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 4.9 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Orange 1 20 Oct 2022 03:00 167 2 million 130 thousand Mexico
        Orange 2 20 Oct 2022 09:00 167 2.6 million 460 thousand Mexico
        Orange 3 20 Oct 2022 15:00 157 2.8 million 350 thousand Mexico
        Orange 4 20 Oct 2022 21:00 157 3.2 million 130 thousand Mexico
        Orange 5 21 Oct 2022 03:00 157 1.6 million 90 thousand Mexico
        Orange 6 21 Oct 2022 09:00 176 4.2 million 1.8 million Mexico
        Orange 7 21 Oct 2022 15:00 176 4.4 million 810 thousand Mexico
        Orange 8 21 Oct 2022 21:00 167 4.3 million 220 thousand Mexico
        Orange 9 22 Oct 2022 03:00 176 2.4 million 320 thousand Mexico
        Red 10 22 Oct 2022 09:00 194 1.8 million 290 thousand Mexico
        Red 11 22 Oct 2022 15:00 194 4.3 million 340 thousand Mexico
        Red 12 22 Oct 2022 21:00 194 4.1 million 320 thousand Mexico
        Red 13 23 Oct 2022 03:00 185 2.1 million 350 thousand Mexico
        Red 14 23 Oct 2022 09:00 204 2.8 million 200 thousand Mexico
        Green 15 23 Oct 2022 15:00 148 4.5 million 290 thousand Mexico
        Green 16 23 Oct 2022 21:00 74 4.9 million 290 thousand Mexico
        Green 17 24 Oct 2022 03:00 46 4.9 million 290 thousand Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 20 Oct 2022 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.2, -101.3
          GREEN
          		 2 20 Oct 2022 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, -101.5
          GREEN
          		 3 20 Oct 2022 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.2, -102
          GREEN
          		 4 20 Oct 2022 21:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 15.5, -103
          GREEN
          		 5 21 Oct 2022 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.7, -103.6
          GREEN
          		 6 21 Oct 2022 09:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 16.2, -103.8
          GREEN
          		 7 21 Oct 2022 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 16.4, -104.4
          GREEN
          		 8 21 Oct 2022 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 16.4, -105
          GREEN
          		 9 22 Oct 2022 03:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16.7, -105.6
          GREEN
          		 10 22 Oct 2022 09:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 17.3, -106.1
          GREEN
          		 11 22 Oct 2022 15:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 18, -106.3
          GREEN
          		 12 22 Oct 2022 21:00 Category 4 213 no people 570000 people 19, -106.6
          ORANGE
          		 13 23 Oct 2022 03:00 Category 4 213 91000 people 1.2 million people 20, -106.6
          RED
          		 14 23 Oct 2022 09:00 Category 3 204 140000 people 1.6 million people 21.1, -106.1
          GREEN
          		 15 23 Oct 2022 15:00 Category 1 148 90000 people 1.5 million people 22.8, -105 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 16 23 Oct 2022 21:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 2.2 million people 24.6, -103.5 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 17 24 Oct 2022 03:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 26, -101 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 17 24 Oct 2022 12:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 28, -99 United States
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
          Mexico 4.9 million people

          Provinces

          Region Province Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
          Coahuila Mexico 1.7 million people
          Nuevo Leon Mexico 330000 people
          Zacatecas Mexico 260000 people
          Durango Mexico 1 million people
          Jalisco Mexico 360000 people
          Nayarit Mexico 1.1 million people
          Sinaloa Mexico 110000 people

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Saltillo Coahuila de Zaragoza Mexico Major city 620000 people
          Parras Coahuila de Zaragoza Mexico City 32000 people
          Matamoros Coahuila de Zaragoza Mexico City 46000 people
          Torreón Coahuila de Zaragoza Mexico City 600000 people
          Juan Aldama Zacatecas Mexico City 14000 people
          Miguel Auza Durango Mexico City 13000 people
          Sombrerete Zacatecas Mexico City 19000 people
          Ialchihuites Zacatecas Mexico City -
          Durango Durango Mexico Major city 450000 people
          Acaponeta Nayarit Mexico City 18000 people
          Tecuala Nayarit Mexico City 15000 people
          Escuinapa Sinaloa Mexico City 28000 people
          Tuxpan Nayarit Mexico City 23000 people
          Santiago Ixcuintla Nayarit Mexico City -
          Tepic Nayarit Mexico Major city 280000 people
          Compostela Nayarit Mexico City 16000 people
          Puerto Vallarta Jalisco Mexico City 190000 people
          Punta Mita Nayarit Mexico City -

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Saltillo SLW 1402 Civ. Paved Yes 9700
          Casa Madero 1372 0
          Sombrerete 2345 0
          Guadalupe Victoria DGO 1857 Civ. Paved Yes 9500
          Rancho El Durangueno 2500 0
          La Candelaria del Alto 1940 0
          Acaponeta 84 0
          Rancho los Cabras 3 0
          Teacapan 6 0
          Tepic TPQ 960 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
          San Blas 3 0
          El Llano 12 0
          Lic Gustavo Diaz Ordaz International PVR 6 Civ. Paved Yes 10100
          Isla Maria Madre 5 0
          La Gloria 34 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          San Blas MXSBS Mexico
          Puerto Vallarta MXPVR Mexico
          Ipala Mexico

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Francisco Zarco Nazas 1969
          G. Franci Poanas 1968
          Presa Pena del Aguila LaSauceda 1955
          Presa Guadalupe Victoria Tunal 1962
          Agua Milpa Agua Milpa Santiago 1994
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          1.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  1.3m in Toro Mocho, Mexico. This height is estimated for 23 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (53 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 16 of 23 Oct 2022 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          23 Oct 2022 12:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  1.3
          23 Oct 2022 12:00 El Nuevo Mexico  1.1
          23 Oct 2022 12:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.9
          23 Oct 2022 13:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.5
          23 Oct 2022 12:00 San Blas Mexico  0.4
          23 Oct 2022 13:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.4
          23 Oct 2022 12:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.3
          24 Oct 2022 00:00 Port O'Connor United States  0.2
          24 Oct 2022 00:00 Palacios United States  0.2
          23 Oct 2022 14:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
          23 Oct 2022 12:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 02:00 Flake United States  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 02:00 Elmgrove United States  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 02:00 Crystal Beach United States  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 02:00 Bolivar Peninsula United States  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 23:00 Spanish Village United States  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 23:00 Matagorda United States  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 02:00 Anderson Ways United States  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 02:00 Galveston United States  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 02:00 Nadeau United States  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 02:00 Texas City Junction United States  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 02:00 Bayou Vista United States  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 02:00 Texas City United States  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 02:00 Virginia Point United States  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 02:00 Port Bolivar United States  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 02:00 Fort Travis United States  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 07:00 Corrales Mexico  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 22:00 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 22:00 Port Ingleside United States  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 22:00 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 22:00 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 22:00 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 22:00 Aransas Pass United States  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 22:00 Estes United States  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 22:00 Mustang Beach United States  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 22:00 Port Aransas United States  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 22:00 Shell Ridge United States  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 22:00 Flour Bluff United States  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 22:00 Rockport United States  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 22:00 Copano Village United States  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 22:00 Fulton United States  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 01:00 Jamaica Beach United States  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 01:00 High Island United States  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 01:00 Johnson's Bayou United States  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 01:00 Constance Beach United States  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 01:00 Peveto Beach United States  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 01:00 Holly Beach United States  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 10:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 00:00 Patton United States  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 00:00 Caplen United States  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 00:00 Gilchrist United States  0.1
          24 Oct 2022 01:00 Cameron United States  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 12:00 Monteon Mexico  0.1