Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for EARL-22 in Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Bermuda, Anguilla, Virgin Islands British, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands U.S., Puerto Rico, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Guadeloupe from 03 Sep 2022 03:00 UTC to 10 Sep 2022 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EARL-22

in Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Bermuda, Anguilla, Virgin Islands British, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands U.S., Puerto Rico, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Guadeloupe

03 Sep 2022 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EARL-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	68 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (03 Sep 22:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Montserrat)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	68 km/h	0.4 m	405 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	166 km/h	0.4 m	817 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

166 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2022 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	03 Sep 2022 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	03 Sep 2022 06:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Sep 2022 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	03 Sep 2022 18:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2022 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Puerto Rico	90,403

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	03 Sep 2022 00:00	369	-		-	-	-	-	-	Guadeloupe
2	03 Sep 2022 06:00	240	-		-	-	-	-	-	Guadeloupe
3	03 Sep 2022 12:00	254	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	03 Sep 2022 18:00	891	-		-	-	-	-	-	Puerto Rico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Zulia, San Rafael, Venezuela. This height is estimated for 03/09/2022 11:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2022 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	03/09/2022 11:00	Zulia, San Rafael	Venezuela	0.3
	03/09/2022 11:00	Zulia, Las Cabimas	Venezuela	0.3
	03/09/2022 09:00	Zulia, Sichipes	Venezuela	0.3
	03/09/2022 00:00	Falcon, Las Delicias	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 00:00	Falcon, Tucacas	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 00:00	Falcon, Los Corales	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 09:00	Zulia, Puerto Cardoncito	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 08:00	Zulia, Caimare Chico	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 08:00	Zulia, Boca Paijana	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 06:00	East Berbice-Corentyne, Goldspie	Guyana	0.2
	03/09/2022 07:00	Amapa, Agua Doce	Brazil	0.2
	03/09/2022 07:00	Amapa, Euca	Brazil	0.2
	03/09/2022 07:00	Sucre, Ariota	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 15:00	Essequibo Islands-West Demerara, Caledonia	Guyana	0.2
	03/09/2022 02:00	, Lower Manzanilla	Trinidad and Tobago	0.2
	03/09/2022 03:00	Nueva Esparta, Isla de Margarita Paraguchi	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 15:00	Essequibo Islands-West Demerara, Leguan I	Guyana	0.2
	03/09/2022 03:00	Nueva Esparta, Isla de Margarita Manzanillo	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 05:00	Demerara-Mahaica, Enmore	Guyana	0.2
	03/09/2022 12:00	Zulia, Tapuli	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 16:00	Miranda, Carenero	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 12:00	La Guajira, Castilletes	Colombia	0.2
	03/09/2022 00:00	Falcon, Guasare Abajo	Venezuela	0.1
	03/09/2022 10:00	Magdalena, Puebloviejo	Colombia	0.1
	03/09/2022 10:00	Magdalena, Tasajera	Colombia	0.1
	03/09/2022 10:00	Magdalena, Palmira	Colombia	0.1
	03/09/2022 05:00	Naguabo, Campamento Punta Lima	Puerto Rico	0.1
	03/09/2022 12:00	La Guajira, Puerto Lopez	Colombia	0.1
	03/09/2022 01:00	, Jost Van Dyke Belle Vue	British Virgin Islands	0.1
	03/09/2022 00:00	Falcon, Los Taques	Venezuela	0.1
	03/09/2022 15:00	, Saint John Adrian	Virgin Islands	0.1
	03/09/2022 08:00	Antioquia, Puerto Barrios	Colombia	0.1
	03/09/2022 11:00	La Guajira, Puerto Ingles	Colombia	0.1
	03/09/2022 00:00	, The Valley	Anguilla	0.1
	03/09/2022 02:00	Ceiba, Vieques	Puerto Rico	0.1
	03/09/2022 06:00	Bocas del Toro, Quebrada Jones	Panama	0.1
	03/09/2022 14:00	, Saint Thomas Enighed	Virgin Islands	0.1
	03/09/2022 07:00	Cordoba, Caserio Puerto Limon	Colombia	0.1
	03/09/2022 13:00	Pomeroon-Supernaam, Bounty Hall	Guyana	0.1
	03/09/2022 10:00	, Saint John Annaberg	Virgin Islands	0.1
	03/09/2022 10:00	, Saint John Bordeaux	Virgin Islands	0.1
	03/09/2022 10:00	, Saint John Hermitage	Virgin Islands	0.1
	03/09/2022 10:00	, Saint John East End	Virgin Islands	0.1
	03/09/2022 02:00	Mayaro, Saint Joseph	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	03/09/2022 01:00	Choco, Trigana	Colombia	0.1
	03/09/2022 01:00	Choco, Villa Claret	Colombia	0.1
	03/09/2022 01:00	Nueva Esparta, Isla de Margarita Pampatar	Venezuela	0.1
	03/09/2022 02:00	, Mopion Island Engagement Umbrella	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	0.1
	03/09/2022 01:00	Sucre, Islas de San Bernardo El Islote	Colombia	0.1
	03/09/2022 13:00	Bocas del Toro, Loma Partida	Panama	0.1
	03/09/2022 00:00	Saint Patrick, Fullarton	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	03/09/2022 02:00	, Saint Margaret	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	03/09/2022 00:00	La Guajira, Punta Espada	Colombia	0.1
	03/09/2022 08:00	Sud, Saint-Jean	Haiti	0.1
	03/09/2022 00:00	Falcon, Boca de Ricoa	Venezuela	0.1
	03/09/2022 13:00	Atlantico Norte, Cabo Gracias Viejo	Nicaragua	0.1
	03/09/2022 19:00	Bocas del Toro, Macca Bite	Panama	0.1
	03/09/2022 02:00	Falcon, Azubure	Venezuela	0.1
	03/09/2022 09:00	Bolivar, Baru	Colombia	0.1
	03/09/2022 10:00	, Saint John Contant	Virgin Islands	0.1
	03/09/2022 10:00	, Saint John Fish Bay	Virgin Islands	0.1
	03/09/2022 11:00	Gracias a Dios, Irlaya	Honduras	0.1
	03/09/2022 00:00	Bocas del Toro, Tobobe	Panama	0.1
	03/09/2022 02:00	Falcon, El Manglar	Venezuela	0.1
	03/09/2022 01:00	, Saint Thomas Bellevue	Virgin Islands	0.1
	03/09/2022 04:00	, Isla de Culebra San Ildefonso	Puerto Rico	0.1
	03/09/2022 00:00	, Saint Eustatius Oranjestad	Netherlands Antilles	0.1
	03/09/2022 06:00	, Saint John Calabash Boom	Virgin Islands	0.1
	03/09/2022 11:00	Delaware, New Castle	United States	0.1
	03/09/2022 11:00	Delaware, Shingle Landing	United States	0.1
	03/09/2022 10:00	Delaware, Bay View Beach	United States	0.1
	03/09/2022 10:00	Delaware, Port Penn	United States	0.1
	03/09/2022 10:00	Delaware, Fennimore Landing	United States	0.1
	03/09/2022 09:00	Delaware, Collins Beach	United States	0.1
	03/09/2022 00:00	New Jersey, North Beach Haven	United States	0.0
	03/09/2022 06:00	New Jersey, Atlantic City	United States	0.0
	03/09/2022 06:00	New Jersey, Ventnor City	United States	0.0
	03/09/2022 06:00	New Jersey, Scotch Bonnet	United States	0.0
	03/09/2022 06:00	New Jersey, Swainton	United States	0.0
	03/09/2022 06:00	New Jersey, Avalon	United States	0.0
	03/09/2022 00:00	Florida, Plantation Key Plantation Key	United States
	03/09/2022 00:00	New Jersey, Cape May	United States
	03/09/2022 00:00	New Jersey, Wildwood Crest	United States
	03/09/2022 00:00	New Jersey, Wildwood	United States
	03/09/2022 00:00	New Jersey, Townsends Inlet	United States
	03/09/2022 00:00	New Jersey, Sea Isle City	United States
	03/09/2022 00:00	New Jersey, Strathmere	United States
	03/09/2022 00:00	New Jersey, Brant Beach	United States
	03/09/2022 00:00	New Jersey, Ship Bottom	United States
	03/09/2022 00:00	New Jersey, Surf City	United States

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.