Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for EARL-22 in Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Bermuda, Anguilla, Virgin Islands British, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands U.S., Puerto Rico, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Guadeloupe from 03 Sep 2022 03:00 UTC to 10 Sep 2022 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EARL-22

in Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Bermuda, Anguilla, Virgin Islands British, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands U.S., Puerto Rico, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Guadeloupe

03 Sep 2022 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EARL-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	83 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (03 Sep 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Montserrat)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	83 km/h	0.4 m	254 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	166 km/h	0.4 m	817 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

166 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	03 Sep 2022 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	03 Sep 2022 06:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Sep 2022 12:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Saint-Barthélemy	3,784
100-250 mm	Saint-Barthélemy	6,655
50-100 mm	British Virgin Islands, Saint-Martin, Puerto Rico, Sint Maarten, Saba, Saint Kitts and Nevis	77,660	+
	British Virgin Islands	993
	Saint-Martin	41,384
	Puerto Rico	408
	Sint Maarten	32,718
	Saba	2,013
	Saint Kitts and Nevis	142

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	03 Sep 2022 00:00	369	-	-	-	-	-	-	Guadeloupe
2	03 Sep 2022 06:00	240	-	-	-	-	-	-	Guadeloupe
3	03 Sep 2022 12:00	513	10 thousand			-	-	-	British Virgin Islands, Saint-Martin, Puerto Rico, Sint Maarten, Saint-Barthélemy, Saba, Saint Kitts and Nevis

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Zulia, Sichipes, Venezuela. This height is estimated for 03/09/2022 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	03/09/2022 15:00	Zulia, Sichipes	Venezuela	0.3
	03/09/2022 00:00	Zulia, San Rafael	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 00:00	Zulia, Las Cabimas	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 08:00	Falcon, Las Delicias	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 00:00	, The Valley	Anguilla	0.2
	03/09/2022 08:00	Falcon, Tucacas	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 08:00	Falcon, Los Corales	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 15:00	Zulia, Puerto Cardoncito	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 10:00	Sucre, Ariota	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 14:00	Zulia, Caimare Chico	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 14:00	Zulia, Boca Paijana	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 04:00	Nueva Esparta, Isla de Margarita Paraguchi	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 11:00	Miranda, Carenero	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 04:00	Nueva Esparta, Isla de Margarita Manzanillo	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 12:00	East Berbice-Corentyne, Goldspie	Guyana	0.2
	03/09/2022 06:00	Falcon, Guasare Abajo	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 17:00	Zulia, Tapuli	Venezuela	0.2
	03/09/2022 16:00	Magdalena, Puebloviejo	Colombia	0.2
	03/09/2022 16:00	Magdalena, Tasajera	Colombia	0.2
	03/09/2022 16:00	Magdalena, Palmira	Colombia	0.2
	03/09/2022 12:00	Amapa, Agua Doce	Brazil	0.1
	03/09/2022 17:00	La Guajira, Castilletes	Colombia	0.1
	03/09/2022 05:00	, Lower Manzanilla	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	03/09/2022 21:00	Essequibo Islands-West Demerara, Leguan I	Guyana	0.1
	03/09/2022 21:00	Essequibo Islands-West Demerara, Caledonia	Guyana	0.1
	03/09/2022 11:00	Amapa, Euca	Brazil	0.1
	03/09/2022 06:00	Falcon, Los Taques	Venezuela	0.1
	03/09/2022 18:00	La Guajira, Puerto Lopez	Colombia	0.1
	03/09/2022 05:00	, Jost Van Dyke Belle Vue	British Virgin Islands	0.1
	03/09/2022 11:00	Naguabo, Campamento Punta Lima	Puerto Rico	0.1
	03/09/2022 17:00	La Guajira, Puerto Ingles	Colombia	0.1
	03/09/2022 07:00	Pomeroon-Supernaam, Bounty Hall	Guyana	0.1
	03/09/2022 08:00	Atlantico Norte, Cabo Gracias Viejo	Nicaragua	0.1
	03/09/2022 08:00	, Saint Thomas Enighed	Virgin Islands	0.1
	04/09/2022 15:00	Sud, Saint-Jean	Haiti	0.1
	03/09/2022 11:00	Nueva Esparta, Isla de Margarita Pampatar	Venezuela	0.1
	03/09/2022 05:00	Bocas del Toro, Quebrada Jones	Panama	0.1
	03/09/2022 17:00	Gracias a Dios, Irlaya	Honduras	0.1
	03/09/2022 12:00	Demerara-Mahaica, Enmore	Guyana	0.1
	03/09/2022 01:00	, Saint Eustatius Oranjestad	Netherlands Antilles	0.1
	03/09/2022 09:00	, Saint John Annaberg	Virgin Islands	0.1
	03/09/2022 09:00	, Saint John Bordeaux	Virgin Islands	0.1
	03/09/2022 09:00	, Saint John Hermitage	Virgin Islands	0.1
	03/09/2022 09:00	, Saint John East End	Virgin Islands	0.1
	03/09/2022 18:00	La Guajira, Punta Espada	Colombia	0.1
	03/09/2022 03:00	Ceiba, Vieques	Puerto Rico	0.1
	03/09/2022 08:00	, Saint John Adrian	Virgin Islands	0.1
	05/09/2022 16:00	Antioquia, Puerto Barrios	Colombia	0.1
	03/09/2022 05:00	Saint Patrick, Fullarton	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	03/09/2022 08:00	Mayaro, Saint Joseph	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	04/09/2022 13:00	Bocas del Toro, Loma Partida	Panama	0.1
	04/09/2022 00:00	Georgia, Raccoon Bluff	United States	0.1
	03/09/2022 13:00	Cordoba, Caserio Puerto Limon	Colombia	0.1
	03/09/2022 02:00	, Mopion Island Engagement Umbrella	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	0.1
	03/09/2022 12:00	, Saint John Contant	Virgin Islands	0.1
	03/09/2022 12:00	, Saint John Fish Bay	Virgin Islands	0.1
	03/09/2022 06:00	Bocas del Toro, Tobobe	Panama	0.1
	03/09/2022 18:00	Gracias a Dios, Cabo Gracias a Dios	Honduras	0.1
	03/09/2022 12:00	, Isla de Culebra San Ildefonso	Puerto Rico	0.1
	03/09/2022 10:00	Falcon, Boca de Ricoa	Venezuela	0.1
	03/09/2022 08:00	, Saint Thomas Bellevue	Virgin Islands	0.1
	03/09/2022 06:00	Falcon, Azubure	Venezuela	0.1
	03/09/2022 16:00	Juana Diaz, Boca Chica	Puerto Rico	0.1
	03/09/2022 08:00	, Saint Margaret	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	05/09/2022 14:00	Sucre, Islas de San Bernardo El Islote	Colombia	0.1
	05/09/2022 19:00	Delaware, New Castle	United States	0.1
	05/09/2022 19:00	Delaware, Shingle Landing	United States	0.1
	05/09/2022 19:00	Delaware, Bay View Beach	United States	0.1
	05/09/2022 19:00	Delaware, Port Penn	United States	0.1
	05/09/2022 19:00	Delaware, Fennimore Landing	United States	0.1
	03/09/2022 02:00	South Carolina, Porcher Bluff	United States	0.1
	03/09/2022 06:00	New Jersey, North Beach Haven	United States	0.0
	05/09/2022 18:00	Delaware, Collins Beach	United States	0.0
	03/09/2022 13:00	Virginia, Deep Hole	United States	0.0
	03/09/2022 00:00	New Jersey, Scotch Bonnet	United States	0.0
	03/09/2022 00:00	New Jersey, Swainton	United States	0.0
	03/09/2022 00:00	New Jersey, Avalon	United States	0.0
	05/09/2022 22:00	Maryland, Hudson	United States	0.0
	05/09/2022 22:00	Maryland, Wrights	United States	0.0
	05/09/2022 12:00	Virginia, Horntown	United States	0.0
	05/09/2022 12:00	Virginia, Sign Post	United States	0.0
	05/09/2022 12:00	Virginia, Sinnickson	United States	0.0
	03/09/2022 11:00	North Carolina, Pine Knoll Shores	United States	0.0
	05/09/2022 12:00	North Carolina, Waterlilly	United States	0.0
	03/09/2022 12:00	New Jersey, Atlantic City	United States	0.0
	03/09/2022 12:00	New Jersey, Ventnor City	United States	0.0
	05/09/2022 12:00	Virginia, Hill Landing	United States	0.0
	03/09/2022 11:00	North Carolina, Salter Path	United States	0.0
	03/09/2022 11:00	Delaware, Ocean View	United States	0.0
	03/09/2022 11:00	Delaware, Bay Shore Mobile Home Park	United States	0.0
	05/09/2022 13:00	Virginia, False Cape Landing	United States	0.0
	03/09/2022 00:00	New Jersey, North Wildwood	United States	0.0
	03/09/2022 00:00	New Jersey, Stone Harbor	United States	0.0
	05/09/2022 15:00	New Jersey, Cape May	United States	0.0
	05/09/2022 15:00	New Jersey, Sea Isle City	United States	0.0
	05/09/2022 15:00	New Jersey, Jeffers Landing	United States	0.0
	05/09/2022 15:00	New Jersey, Wildwood Crest	United States	0.0
	05/09/2022 15:00	New Jersey, Wildwood	United States	0.0
	05/09/2022 15:00	New Jersey, Somers Point	United States	0.0
	05/09/2022 13:00	Maryland, Golf Club Shores	United States	0.0
	05/09/2022 15:00	New Jersey, Strathmere	United States	0.0
	05/09/2022 15:00	New Jersey, Longport	United States	0.0
	05/09/2022 15:00	New Jersey, Margate City	United States	0.0
	05/09/2022 15:00	New Jersey, Townsends Inlet	United States	0.0
	03/09/2022 00:00	Maryland, Harmon Landing	United States
	03/09/2022 00:00	Maryland, Mystic Harbor	United States
	03/09/2022 00:00	Maryland, Eagles Nest Mobile Home Park	United States
	03/09/2022 00:00	Maryland, West Ocean City	United States
	03/09/2022 00:00	Maryland, Ocean City	United States
	03/09/2022 00:00	Maryland, North Ocean City	United States
	03/09/2022 00:00	Delaware, South Bethany	United States
	03/09/2022 00:00	Delaware, Fenwick Island	United States
	03/09/2022 00:00	Delaware, Kings Grant	United States
	03/09/2022 00:00	New Jersey, Brant Beach	United States
	03/09/2022 00:00	New Jersey, Ship Bottom	United States
	03/09/2022 00:00	New Jersey, Surf City	United States
	03/09/2022 00:00	New Jersey, Harvey Cedars	United States

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.