Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CELIA-22
in Mexico
16 Jun 2022 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CELIA-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 144 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (16 Jun 23:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 144 km/h 0.4 m 158 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 162 km/h 0.6 m 621 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 16 Jun 2022 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 Jun 2022 18:00 144 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

621 mm

Up to 630 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Jun 2022 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua628,205
+
Mexico574,276 
Belize3,447 
Guatemala31 
Honduras25,861 
Nicaragua24,588 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama13,448,355
+
United States1,542 
Mexico5,618,923 
Belize153,723 
Guatemala1,383,162 
Honduras1,172,504 
Nicaragua948,268 
Costa Rica3,737,213 
Panama433,017 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 Jun 2022 18:00 868 630 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Baja California Sur, Puerto Charley, Mexico. This height is estimated for 16/06/2022 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 Jun 2022 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
16/06/2022 23:00 Baja California Sur, Puerto Charley Mexico  0.3
19/06/2022 12:00 Florida, Feather Sound United States  0.3
19/06/2022 12:00 Florida, Punta Rassa United States  0.2
18/06/2022 12:00 Florida, Nine Mile United States  0.2
16/06/2022 19:00 Baja California Sur, San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.2
19/06/2022 07:00 Texas, El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
19/06/2022 18:00 Gracias a Dios, Irlaya Honduras  0.2
19/06/2022 12:00 Florida, Sanibel Island Fort Myers Beach United States  0.2
19/06/2022 18:00 Atlantico Norte, Cabo Gracias Viejo Nicaragua  0.2
16/06/2022 22:00 Sonora, Guaymas Mexico  0.2
16/06/2022 23:00 Sonora, San Jose Mexico  0.2
17/06/2022 04:00 Valle, Puerto Grande Honduras  0.2
17/06/2022 04:00 Valle, El Moray Honduras  0.2
19/06/2022 10:00 Florida, Boca Grande United States  0.2
16/06/2022 21:00 Baja California Sur, San Carlos Mexico  0.2
19/06/2022 18:00 Gracias a Dios, Pusuaya Honduras  0.2
16/06/2022 23:00 Sonora, Atanacio Mexico  0.2
19/06/2022 00:00 Campeche, Isla del Carmen Paso Real Mexico  0.2
19/06/2022 18:00 Belize, Belize City Belize  0.2
16/06/2022 21:00 Sinaloa, Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
19/06/2022 17:00 Veracruz, Buen Pais Mexico  0.2
19/06/2022 18:00 Gracias a Dios, Cabo Gracias a Dios Honduras  0.2
19/06/2022 17:00 Toledo, Cattle Landing Belize  0.2
19/06/2022 09:00 Florida, Anna Maria United States  0.2
19/06/2022 09:00 Florida, Holmes Beach United States  0.2
19/06/2022 09:00 Florida, Ilexhurst United States  0.2
19/06/2022 10:00 Florida, Tierra Verde United States  0.2
19/06/2022 10:00 Florida, Bayway United States  0.2
19/06/2022 10:00 Florida, Lakewood Estates United States  0.2
19/06/2022 17:00 Colon, Empalme Honduras  0.2
19/06/2022 17:00 Colon, Puerto Castilla Honduras  0.2
17/06/2022 04:00 Chiapas, Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.2
18/06/2022 18:00 Florida, Apalachicola United States  0.2
19/06/2022 18:00 Islas de la Bahia, Isla de Roatan Roatan Honduras  0.2
19/06/2022 18:00 Corozal, Ambergris Cay San Pedro Belize  0.2
19/06/2022 18:00 Islas de la Bahia, Isla de Guanaja Red Cliff Honduras  0.2
19/06/2022 17:00 Islas de la Bahia, Isla de Roatan Santa Elena Honduras  0.2
19/06/2022 11:00 Florida, Sanibel Island Captiva United States  0.2
19/06/2022 11:00 Florida, Sanibel Island Wulfert United States  0.2
19/06/2022 17:00 Veracruz, Veracruz Mexico  0.2
19/06/2022 16:00 Corozal, Corozal Belize  0.2
19/06/2022 18:00 Corozal, Ambergris Cay Bacalar Chico Belize  0.2
19/06/2022 17:00 Veracruz, Anton Lizardo Mexico  0.2
19/06/2022 09:00 Florida, Bahia Shores United States  0.2
19/06/2022 09:00 Florida, Saint Petersburg Beach United States  0.2
19/06/2022 09:00 Florida, Fort De Soto United States  0.2
19/06/2022 18:00 Gracias a Dios, Huarta Honduras  0.2
19/06/2022 18:00 Quintana Roo, Vigia Chico Mexico  0.2
16/06/2022 22:00 Baja California Sur, Tripui Mexico  0.2
19/06/2022 17:00 Gracias a Dios, Tusi Cocal Honduras  0.2
19/06/2022 18:00 Gracias a Dios, Rio Platano Honduras  0.2
19/06/2022 16:00 Pinar del Rio, El Hondon Cuba  0.2
19/06/2022 18:00 Gracias a Dios, Barra del Patuca Honduras  0.2
19/06/2022 18:00 Quintana Roo, Majahual Mexico  0.2
19/06/2022 17:00 Corozal, Santeneja Belize  0.2
19/06/2022 09:00 Louisiana, West Point United States  0.2
19/06/2022 16:00 Quintana Roo, Calderita Mexico  0.2
19/06/2022 18:00 Quintana Roo, El Placer Mexico  0.2
19/06/2022 06:00 Texas, North Beach United States  0.2
19/06/2022 07:00 Texas, Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
16/06/2022 22:00 Michoacan de Ocampo, Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.2
19/06/2022 06:00 Louisiana, Cypremort Point United States  0.2
19/06/2022 15:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquite Mexico  0.2
19/06/2022 07:00 Texas, Port Ingleside United States  0.1
16/06/2022 21:00 Escuintla, Sipacate Guatemala  0.1
19/06/2022 02:00 Texas, Caplen United States  0.1
19/06/2022 02:00 Texas, Gilchrist United States  0.1
16/06/2022 23:00 Escuintla, El Naranjo Guatemala  0.1
18/06/2022 07:00 Texas, Beach City United States  0.1
16/06/2022 22:00 Baja California Sur, Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
19/06/2022 17:00 Veracruz, La Guadalupe Mexico  0.1
19/06/2022 17:00 Veracruz, Monte Gordo Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 20:00 Oaxaca, Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.1
19/06/2022 14:00 Tamaulipas, Las Guayabas Mexico  0.1
19/06/2022 08:00 Louisiana, Breton United States  0.1
16/06/2022 19:00 Baja California Sur, El Tule Mexico  0.1
19/06/2022 05:00 Texas, Seabrook United States  0.1
19/06/2022 06:00 Texas, Cedar Point United States  0.1
17/06/2022 01:00 Valle, El Ajustillo Honduras  0.1
17/06/2022 01:00 Valle, Las Piletas Honduras  0.1
16/06/2022 21:00 Baja California Sur, Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
19/06/2022 17:00 Tamaulipas, El Porvenir Mexico  0.1
19/06/2022 03:00 Texas, Crystal Beach United States  0.1
19/06/2022 03:00 Texas, Patton United States  0.1
19/06/2022 18:00 Pinar del Rio, Punta de Fisga Cuba  0.1
19/06/2022 17:00 Veracruz, El Laurel Mexico  0.1
19/06/2022 05:00 Texas, Smith Point United States  0.1
19/06/2022 18:00 Veracruz, Tecolutla Mexico  0.1
18/06/2022 05:00 Louisiana, Cameron United States  0.1
19/06/2022 17:00 Pinar del Rio, La Furnia Cuba  0.1
17/06/2022 01:00 Bocas del Toro, Boquita Panama  0.1
18/06/2022 23:00 Louisiana, Cocodrie United States  0.1
17/06/2022 18:00 Guanacaste, El Jobo Costa Rica  0.1
19/06/2022 18:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
19/06/2022 16:00 Louisiana, Cheniere Caminada United States  0.1
19/06/2022 16:00 Louisiana, Grand Isle United States  0.1
19/06/2022 18:00 Louisiana, Port Fourchon United States  0.1
17/06/2022 07:00 Puntarenas, San Lucas Costa Rica  0.1
18/06/2022 22:00 Leon, Linda Vista Nicaragua  0.1
16/06/2022 21:00 Baja California Sur, Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 21:00 Baja California Sur, Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
19/06/2022 17:00 Louisiana, South Pass United States  0.1
19/06/2022 13:00 Escuintla, La Barrita Guatemala  0.1
19/06/2022 02:00 Texas, Galveston Island Jamaica Beach United States  0.1
19/06/2022 17:00 Louisiana, Port Eads United States  0.1
19/06/2022 13:00 Florida, Dry Tortugas Fort Jefferson United States  0.1
18/06/2022 20:00 Puntarenas, Playa Blanca Costa Rica  0.1
18/06/2022 20:00 Puntarenas, Puerto Escondido Costa Rica  0.1
19/06/2022 15:00 Escuintla, San Jose Guatemala  0.1
16/06/2022 21:00 Baja California Sur, El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
19/06/2022 03:00 Texas, Galveston Island Bay Harbor United States  0.1
19/06/2022 18:00 Louisiana, Medicant Island Bassa Bassa United States  0.1
19/06/2022 03:00 Texas, Quintana United States  0.1
19/06/2022 15:00 Escuintla, Iztapa Guatemala  0.1
19/06/2022 15:00 Santa Rosa, Papaturro Guatemala  0.1
19/06/2022 18:00 Valle, Gualora Honduras  0.1
17/06/2022 01:00 Chiriqui, Mata Hambre Panama  0.1
17/06/2022 19:00 Puntarenas, Gigante Costa Rica  0.1
17/06/2022 01:00 Oaxaca, Garrapateras Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 22:00 Puntarenas, Esterillo Este Costa Rica  0.1
16/06/2022 22:00 Puntarenas, Bejuco Costa Rica  0.1
17/06/2022 02:00 Bocas del Toro, Isla Torta Panama  0.1