Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MERBOK-22
in United States

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TY 2213 MERBOK (2213)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 41N 166E
MOVE NNE 40KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
30KT 600NM WEST 500NM EAST =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TY 2213 MERBOK (2213)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 41N 166E
MOVE NNE 40KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
30KT 600NM WEST 500NM EAST =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2213 MERBOK (2213)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 38.3N 165.3E GOOD
MOVE NNE 32KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 350NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 151500UTC 46.3N 168.8E 30NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 160300UTC 52.8N 175.0E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 150300
WARNING 150300.
WARNING VALID 160300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2213 MERBOK (2213) 965 HPA
AT 38.3N 165.3E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 32 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 46.3N 168.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 52.8N 175.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2213 MERBOK (2213)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 38.3N 165.3E GOOD
MOVE NNE 32KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 350NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 160300UTC 52.8N 175.0E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 2213 MERBOK (2213)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MERBOK IS LOCATED AT 36.4N, 164.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2213 MERBOK (2213)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 36.4N 164.1E GOOD
MOVE NNE 25KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 350NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 151200UTC 45.0N 167.8E 30NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 160000UTC 50.9N 173.8E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2213 MERBOK (2213)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 36.4N 164.1E GOOD
MOVE NNE 25KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 350NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 50.9N 173.8E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 150000
WARNING 150000.
WARNING VALID 160000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2213 MERBOK (2213) 965 HPA
AT 36.4N 164.1E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 45.0N 167.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 50.9N 173.8E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2213 MERBOK (2213)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 35.1N 163.1E GOOD
MOVE N 22KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 150900UTC 43.0N 167.4E 30NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 152100UTC 49.3N 171.8E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 142100
WARNING 142100.
WARNING VALID 152100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2213 MERBOK (2213) 965 HPA
AT 35.1N 163.1E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 22 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 43.0N 167.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
968 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 152100UTC AT 49.3N 171.8E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
968 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2213 MERBOK (2213)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 35.1N 163.1E GOOD
MOVE N 22KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 49.3N 171.8E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 142100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 220914204037
2022091418 15W MERBOK 017 03 010 20 SATL 060
T000 339N 1624E 065 R064 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 165 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 403N 1656E 065 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 290 SE QD 210 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 471N 1698E 060 R050 080 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 310 NE QD 350 SE QD 260 SW QD 220 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 15W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 017
1. TYPHOON 15W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 017
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 33.9N 162.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.9N 162.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 40.3N 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 37 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 47.1N 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 35.5N 163.2E.
14SEP22. TYPHOON 15W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 729 NM
NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1522091006 206N1580E 20
1522091012 207N1584E 25
1522091018 208N1589E 30
1522091100 209N1594E 30
1522091106 210N1599E 30
1522091112 211N1604E 35
1522091118 212N1609E 35
1522091200 214N1614E 35
1522091206 217N1620E 35
1522091212 225N1628E 45
1522091218 232N1632E 55
1522091218 232N1632E 55
1522091300 239N1633E 55
1522091300 239N1633E 55
1522091306 247N1631E 55
1522091306 247N1631E 55
1522091312 259N1629E 60
1522091312 259N1629E 60
1522091318 270N1622E 65
1522091318 270N1622E 65
1522091318 270N1622E 65
1522091400 283N1622E 65
1522091400 283N1622E 65
1522091400 283N1622E 65
1522091406 301N1618E 70
1522091406 301N1618E 70
1522091406 301N1618E 70
1522091412 319N1619E 65
1522091412 319N1619E 65
1522091412 319N1619E 65
1522091418 339N1624E 65
1522091418 339N1624E 65
1522091418 339N1624E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 2213 MERBOK (2213)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MERBOK IS LOCATED AT 33.6N, 162.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT12. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2213 MERBOK (2213)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 33.6N 162.2E GOOD
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 150600UTC 40.8N 166.7E 30NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 151800UTC 47.7N 169.8E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2213 MERBOK (2213)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 33.6N 162.2E GOOD
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 47.7N 169.8E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 141800
WARNING 141800.
WARNING VALID 151800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2213 MERBOK (2213) 965 HPA
AT 33.6N 162.2E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 40.8N 166.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
968 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 47.7N 169.8E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
968 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2213 MERBOK (2213)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 32.6N 161.8E GOOD
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 150300UTC 38.5N 165.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 33KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 151500UTC 46.3N 168.5E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 141500
WARNING 141500.
WARNING VALID 151500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2213 MERBOK (2213) 970 HPA
AT 32.6N 161.8E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 19 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 38.5N 165.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 46.3N 168.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2213 MERBOK (2213)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 32.6N 161.8E GOOD
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 46.3N 168.5E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2213 MERBOK (2213)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MERBOK IS LOCATED AT 31.8N, 161.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SHORTENING OF
A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP,
INCREASED VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 141200
WARNING 141200.
WARNING VALID 151200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2213 MERBOK (2213) 970 HPA
AT 31.8N 161.9E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 19 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 36.4N 164.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 45.0N 167.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 140900
WARNING 140900.
WARNING VALID 150900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2213 MERBOK (2213) 970 HPA
AT 30.9N 162.0E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 19 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 34.8N 163.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 42.5N 167.2E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 140300
WARNING 140300.
WARNING VALID 150300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2213 MERBOK (2213) 970 HPA
AT 29.0N 162.0E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 32.3N 162.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 37.7N 165.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 132100
WARNING 132100.
WARNING VALID 142100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2213 MERBOK (2213) 970 HPA
AT 27.6N 162.1E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 30.8N 161.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 34.9N 163.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 131500
WARNING 131500.
WARNING VALID 141500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2213 MERBOK (2213) 980 HPA
AT 26.4N 162.6E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 29.1N 162.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 32.3N 162.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 130900
WARNING 130900.
WARNING VALID 140900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2213 MERBOK (2213) 980 HPA
AT 25.2N 163.2E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 27.7N 162.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 30.7N 162.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 130300
WARNING 130300.
WARNING VALID 140300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2213 MERBOK (2213) 985 HPA
AT 24.4N 163.1E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 26.1N 162.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 28.7N 162.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 122100
WARNING 122100.
WARNING VALID 132100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2213 MERBOK (2213) 985 HPA
AT 23.5N 163.3E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 25.1N 162.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 27.3N 162.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 121500
WARNING 121500.
WARNING VALID 131500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2213 MERBOK (2213) 990 HPA
AT 23.1N 162.8E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 26.0N 162.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>