Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for COLIN-22
in United States

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Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 030844
TCDAT3

Remnants Of Colin Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
500 AM EDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Colin no longer has a discernible center or closed circulation in
satellite imagery or surface observations, and it has therefore
dissipated over eastern North Carolina. The remnants are
generating a line of convection mainly offshore the North Carolina
coast, where buoy reports and earlier ASCAT data indicate that
maximum winds are now down to 25 kt.

Colin's remnants are moving a little faster toward the northeast
(055/9 kt) and are expected to turn east-northeastward and
accelerate soon, crossing the Outer Banks and emerging over the
Atlantic waters this afternoon. The remnants are then expected to
merge with a frontal system over the western Atlantic in about 24
hours.

This is the last advisory on Colin. For additional information,
please see products issued by the local National Weather Service
forecast offices in Morehead City and Wilmington, North Carolina.
Also refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the
North Carolina coast through this evening.

2. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may impact coastal North
Carolina through this morning. Most areas will see less than an
inch of additional rainfall.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 35.2N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF COLIN
12H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 030843
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Colin Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
500 AM EDT Sun Jul 03 2022

...COLIN DISSIPATES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 77.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NNE OF NEW BERN NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Colin were located near
latitude 35.2 North, longitude 77.0 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and are expected to turn
east-northeastward and accelerate soon, emerging over the Atlantic
waters east of North Carolina this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts,
occurring mainly over the Atlantic waters off the North Carolina
coast.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the remnants of Colin can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Gusty winds are still possible over the North Carolina Outer
Banks this morning.

RAINFALL: Scattered showers and thunderstorms may impact coastal
North Carolina through this morning. Most areas will see less than
an inch of additional rainfall.

SURF: Swells continue to affect portions of the North Carolina
coast and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions through this evening. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in forecasts issued by the local National Weather Service
forecast offices in Morehead City and Wilmington, North Carolina,
and in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 030843
TCMAT3

REMNANTS OF COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022
0900 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 77.0W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 77.0W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 77.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 77.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 030234
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Colin Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Colin continues to become less organized, with only minimal
convection currently occurring and surface observations showing
that the circulation is losing definition. Offshore buoys have
reported winds of 20-25 kt for the past several hours, suggesting
that there are no tropical-storm-force winds left over water.
Based on this, Colin is downgraded to a tropical depression, and all
of the coastal warnings are discontinued.

The current weakening trend is expected to continue due to
increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear and dry air
entrainment, and Colin is now forecast to degenerate to a remnant
low pressure area within the next 12 h. The remnants are forecast
to dissipate after 24 h as they merge with a frontal system over
the northwestern Atlantic.

The initial motion is an somewhat uncertain 055/6 kt. Colin or its
remnants should continue to move generally northeastward through
eastern North Carolina for the next 12-18 h, and then move out over
the Atlantic before merging with the aforementioned frontal system.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the
North Carolina coast through Sunday.

2. Scattered areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash
flooding across coastal portions of North Carolina through Sunday
morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 34.4N 77.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 03/1200Z 35.2N 76.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/0000Z 36.2N 73.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 030234
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Colin Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...COLIN WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...ALL COASTAL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 77.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM N OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warnings for the North Carolina coast and the
Pamlico Sound have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Colin
was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 77.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A
slightly faster northeast to east-northeast motion is expected
during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of
Colin or it remnants is expected to move northeastward along or
just inland of the North Carolina coast through Sunday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely, and Colin is
expected to degenerate to a remnant area of low pressure later
tonight or on Sunday. The system is expected to dissipate
completely Sunday night or Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible across
portions of coastal North Carolina tonight.

RAINFALL: Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall
across coastal portions of North Carolina through Sunday morning,
where an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible. This
rainfall may result in localized areas of flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the
North Carolina coast. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 030233
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022
0300 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND THE
PAMLICO SOUND HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 77.8W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 77.8W AT 03/0300Z...INLAND
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 78.3W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.2N 76.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.2N 73.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 77.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 022333
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Colin Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...COLIN CONTINUING TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 78.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.4 West. Colin is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly faster
northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next day
or so. On the forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to
move northeastward along or just inland of the North Carolina coast
through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Colin could weaken to a tropical depression tonight or
Sunday, and the system is expected to dissipate by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
within the warning area in North Carolina later this evening
through early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall
across coastal portions of North Carolina and northern South
Carolina through Sunday morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall, with isolated amounts up to 4 inches in eastern North
Carolina, is possible. This rainfall may result in localized areas
of flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the
North Carolina coast. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 022036
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
500 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Colin has lost organization this afternoon. Visible satellite and
Doppler radar images along with surface observations indicate that
the circulation has become elongated from north-northeast to
south-southwest, and it is starting to resemble a trough. In
addition, the convective pattern remains ragged with deep convection
confined to the east and southeast of the center. The highest wind
reports are in the Wilmington, North Carolina area, where sustained
winds have been in the 20-25 kt range. The initial intensity is held
at 35 kt, but this could be generous. Hopefully ASCAT data will
provide more information on Colin's intensity tonight.

The ongoing northwesterly shear of about 20 kt is expected to
continue and an approaching cold front is likely to cause the system
to become even more elongated. Based on these factors, Colin is
expected to dissipate in a day or two, if not sooner. The strongest
winds will likely occur along and off the North Carolina coast
through Sunday.

The storm is moving northeastward at 6 kt. A slightly faster
northeast to east-northeast motion is expected, which should take
the center of Colin along or just offshore of the North Carolina
coast during the next 24 hours, followed by a track over the
western Atlantic. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of
the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
within the warning area along the North Carolina coast through
Sunday.

2. Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the
North Carolina coast through Sunday.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding
across portions of coastal North Carolina through Sunday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 34.0N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
12H 03/0600Z 34.5N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 03/1800Z 35.7N 75.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 04/0600Z 37.1N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 022035
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
500 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...COLIN LOSING ORGANIZATION...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 78.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Cape
Fear, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.6 West. Colin is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly faster
northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next day
or so. On the forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to
move northeastward along or just inland of the North Carolina coast
through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so, but Colin is expected to dissipate by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
within the warning area in North Carolina later this evening
through early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall
across coastal portions of North Carolina and northern South
Carolina through Sunday morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall, with isolated amounts up to 4 inches in eastern North
Carolina, is possible. This rainfall may result in localized areas
of flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the
North Carolina coast. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 022035
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022
2100 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR...NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 78.6W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 78.6W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 78.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.5N 77.5W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 35.7N 75.2W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 37.1N 71.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 78.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 03/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 021750
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Colin Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...DISORGANIZED COLIN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG AND OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 79.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM WSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Little River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 79.0 West. Colin is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly faster
northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next day
or two. On the forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to
move northeastward along or just inland of the South Carolina and
North Carolina coasts through Sunday morning, and then emerge over
the western Atlantic Ocean late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so, but Colin is expected to dissipate by early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in North Carolina later this afternoon through early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday
morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated
amounts up to 4 inches in eastern North Carolina, are possible.
This rainfall may result in localized areas of flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the
North Carolina coast. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 021609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.07.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 125.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.07.2022 15.5N 125.9W WEAK
00UTC 03.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ANALYSED POSITION : 10.7N 86.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.07.2022 10.7N 86.0W WEAK
00UTC 03.07.2022 10.9N 88.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.07.2022 11.3N 91.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.07.2022 12.2N 94.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.07.2022 13.0N 98.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.07.2022 14.2N 101.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.07.2022 15.6N 104.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.07.2022 16.5N 107.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.07.2022 16.8N 109.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.07.2022 16.9N 112.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.07.2022 16.7N 114.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.07.2022 16.7N 116.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM COLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 33.6N 79.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.07.2022 33.6N 79.4W WEAK
00UTC 03.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 36.9N 71.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.07.2022 36.7N 69.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 08.07.2022 37.8N 66.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.07.2022 39.5N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021609

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 021514 CCA
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022
1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022

CORRECTED WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM LITTLE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 79.0W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 79.0W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 79.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.3N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.2N 76.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.1N 74.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 79.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 021508 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number 2...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...HEAVY RAINS, STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH SURF CONTINUE ALONG
AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...

Corrected Watches and Warnings section

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 79.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Little River,
South Carolina southward.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Little River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 79.0 West. Colin is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly faster
northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next day
or two. On the forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to
move northeastward along or just inland of the South Carolina and
North Carolina coasts through Sunday morning, and then emerge over
the western Atlantic Ocean late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so, but Colin is expected to dissipate by early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130
km) mainly southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in North Carolina this afternoon through Sunday.

RAINFALL: Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday
morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated
amounts up to 4 inches in eastern North Carolina, are possible.
This rainfall may result in localized areas of flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the coast
of the Carolina coast. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 021452
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...HEAVY RAINS, STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH SURF CONTINUE ALONG
AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 79.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 79.0 West. Colin is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly faster
northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next day
or two. On the forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to
move northeastward along or just inland of the South Carolina and
North Carolina coasts through Sunday morning, and then emerge over
the western Atlantic Ocean late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so, but Colin is expected to dissipate by early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130
km) mainly southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in North Carolina this afternoon through Sunday.

RAINFALL: Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday
morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated
amounts up to 4 inches in eastern North Carolina, are possible.
This rainfall may result in localized areas of flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the coast
of the Carolina coast. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 021449
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

The center of Colin remains just inland over eastern South Carolina
this morning, but nearly all of the heavy rains and strong winds are
off the coastline of South and North Carolina. This asymmetric
structure is due to about 20 kt of northwesterly shear, and since
the shear is not expected to abate, the worst weather conditions
should remain along and off the coast throughout the day and into
Sunday. The initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.
Colin's future looks pretty short. An approaching cold front will
likely cause the circulation to become increasingly elongated
tonight and Sunday, and the system is expected to dissipate or merge
with the front by early Monday. Little change in intensity is
expected prior to dissipation.

The storm is moving northeastward at 6 kt. A slightly faster
northeast to east-northeast motion is expected, which should take
the center of Colin along or just offshore of the Carolina coast
during the next 24 hours, followed by a track over the western
Atlantic. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday.

2. Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the
North Carolina coast through Sunday.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding
across portions of coastal North Carolina through Sunday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 33.7N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
12H 03/0000Z 34.3N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 03/1200Z 35.2N 76.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND
36H 04/0000Z 36.1N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN
48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 021448
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...HEAVIEST RAINS, STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH SURF CONTINUE ALONG
AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 79.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 79.0 West. Colin is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly faster
northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next day
or two. On the forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to
move northeastward along or just inland of the South Carolina and
North Carolina coasts through Sunday morning, and then emerge over
the western Atlantic Ocean late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so, but Colin is expected to dissipate by early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130
km) mainly southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in North Carolina this afternoon through Sunday.

RAINFALL: Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday
morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated
amounts up to 4 inches in eastern North Carolina, are possible.
This rainfall may result in localized areas of flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the coast
of the Carolina coast. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 021448
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022
1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 79.0W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 79.0W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 79.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.3N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.2N 76.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.1N 74.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 79.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 021152
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Colin Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...CENTER OF COLIN REMAINS INLAND OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...HEAVIEST RAINS AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG AND OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 79.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located inland over South Carolina near latitude 33.6 North,
longitude 79.3 West. Colin is moving toward the northeast near 8
mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
through Sunday. A turn toward the east-northeast with an increase
in forward speed is expected late Sunday and Sunday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to move
northeastward along or just inland of the South Carolina and North
Carolina coasts through Sunday, and then emerge over the western
Atlantic Ocean late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple
of days. Colin is expected to dissipate over the western Atlantic
on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in South Carolina this morning and will spread northward to
the warning area in North Carolina this afternoon through Sunday.

RAINFALL: Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday
morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated
amounts up to 4 inches, is expected. This rainfall may result in
localized areas of flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 020854
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

A small area of low pressure formed along a surface trough just
offshore of Savannah, Georgia, yesterday morning and moved inland
across the Lowcountry of South Carolina by the evening. Deep
convection formed near the low center as it was moving inland and
has persisted and become better organized over the past 6 to 12
hours. In addition, surface observations and ASCAT data from
02-03 UTC indicated that an area of sustained 35-kt winds had
developed offshore and near the coast of South Carolina. As a
result, and rather unexpectedly, Tropical Storm Colin has formed
near the South Carolina coast, centered just inland a bit to the
northeast of Charleston.

Colin is moving northeastward just inland of the coast with a
motion of 045/7 kt. A low- to mid-level area of high pressure
is located over the western Atlantic, and Colin is expected to move
northeastward and then east-northeastward around that high during
the next 48 hours. The bulk of the available track guidance
suggests that Colin's center will move along or just inland of the
coasts of South and North Carolina during the next 36 hours, and the
NHC track forecast is generally a blend of the GFEX and HCCA
consensus aids.

Northwesterly shear of roughly 15-20 kt is expected to continue
affecting Colin during the next 36 hours or so, with that shear
increasing to 30 kt or more by 48 hours. As a result, strengthening
is not anticipated, and Colin is expected to remain a sheared
tropical storm while it moves across coastal areas of the Carolinas,
with tropical-storm-force winds primarily limited to the southeast
of the center. Colin is likely to dissipate over the western
Atlantic soon after 48 hours.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the northeastern coast of South Carolina this morning
and will spread northeastward within the warning area along the
North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday.

2. Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday
morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 33.2N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 02/1800Z 33.9N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 03/0600Z 34.8N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 03/1800Z 35.7N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND
48H 04/0600Z 36.8N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN
60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 020853
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORMS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 79.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River,
South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located just inland over South Carolina near latitude 33.2 North,
longitude 79.5 West. Colin is moving toward the northeast near 8
mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
through Sunday. A turn toward the east-northeast with an increase
in forward speed is expected late Sunday and Sunday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to move
northeastward along or just inland of the South Carolina and North
Carolina coasts through Sunday, and then emerge over the western
Atlantic Ocean late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days. Colin is expected to dissipate over the western Atlantic on
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in South Carolina this morning and will spread northward to
the warning area in North Carolina this afternoon through Sunday.

RAINFALL: Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday
morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated
amounts up to 4 inches, is expected. This rainfall may result in
localized areas of flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 020851
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022
0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 79.5W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 79.5W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 79.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.9N 78.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.8N 77.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 35.7N 75.7W...OVER PAMLICO SOUND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 36.8N 72.9W...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 79.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>