Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EARL-22
in Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Bermuda, Anguilla, Virgin Islands British, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands U.S., Puerto Rico, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Guadeloupe
05 Sep 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EARL-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 155 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (07 Sep 23:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Montserrat)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 155 km/h 0.5 m 392 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 155 km/h 0.5 m 392 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 05 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 03 Sep 2022 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 03 Sep 2022 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 03 Sep 2022 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 03 Sep 2022 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 04 Sep 2022 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 04 Sep 2022 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 04 Sep 2022 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 04 Sep 2022 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 05 Sep 2022 00:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 05 Sep 2022 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 05 Sep 2022 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

392 mm

Up to 1.2 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmTrinidad and Tobago, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia1,221,700
+
Trinidad and Tobago32 
Venezuela105,496 
Colombia526,530 
Panama419,806 
Costa Rica169,834 
50-100 mmUnited States, Dominican Republic, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S., Anguilla, Haiti, Saint-Martin, Sint Maarten, Saint-Barthélemy, Saba, Saint Eustatius, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Barbados, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela, Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, Guyana, Brazil26,279,237
+
United States2,562,697 
Dominican Republic689,269 
British Virgin Islands30,117 
Puerto Rico2,181,883 
Virgin Islands, U.S.56,576 
Anguilla14,614 
Haiti1,917 
Saint-Martin41,651 
Sint Maarten39,623 
Saint-Barthélemy10,440 
Saba2,013 
Saint Eustatius4,449 
Saint Kitts and Nevis80 
Martinique37,856 
Saint Lucia176,489 
Barbados200,196 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines234 
Grenada7,501 
Trinidad and Tobago968,949 
Venezuela4,181,228 
Colombia11,686,676 
Panama3,196,330 
Costa Rica31,736 
Guyana130,653 
Brazil26,048 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 03 Sep 2022 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 03 Sep 2022 06:00 150 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 03 Sep 2022 12:00 63 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 03 Sep 2022 18:00 75 -
- - - - - Costa Rica
Blue 5 04 Sep 2022 00:00 70 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 04 Sep 2022 06:00 84 -
- - - - - Colombia
Blue 7 04 Sep 2022 12:00 138 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 04 Sep 2022 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 05 Sep 2022 00:00 131 -
- - - - - Venezuela, Costa Rica
Blue 10 05 Sep 2022 06:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 05 Sep 2022 12:00 340 70 thousand
- - - - United States, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Colombia, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.25 - 0.5 mUnited States, Haiti, Anguilla, Honduras, Nicaragua, Venezuela175,578
+
United States39,590 
Haiti107,103 
Anguilla1,173 
Honduras605 
Nicaragua18,070 
Venezuela9,034 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC