Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LESTER-22
in Mexico
16 Sep 2022 03 UTC
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  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone LESTER-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 74 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (17 Sep 23:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    17 Sep 2022 12:00 - 18 Sep 2022 00:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 93 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 74 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      93 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 15 Sep 2022 21:00 93 1.7 million No people Mexico
        Green 2 16 Sep 2022 03:00 93 2 million No people Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 15 Sep 2022 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.7, -95.4
          GREEN
          		 2 16 Sep 2022 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, -95.8
          GREEN
          		 2 16 Sep 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, -96.4
          GREEN
          		 2 17 Sep 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.4, -97.9
          GREEN
          		 2 17 Sep 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.4 million people 15.7, -99.4
          GREEN
          		 2 18 Sep 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 1 million people 17.3, -100.9 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 2 18 Sep 2022 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 19, -102.7 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Guerrero Mexico
          Michoacan Mexico
          Jalisco Mexico

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          San Marcos Guerrero Mexico City 12000 people
          Acapulco Guerrero Mexico Major city 640000 people
          Atoyac Guerrero Mexico City 20000 people
          Tecpan Guerrero Mexico City 14000 people
          Petatlán Guerrero Mexico City 20000 people
          Apatzingan Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 94000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Alvarez International ACA 5 Civ. Paved Yes 10800
          Pie de la Cuesta 6 0
          Ixtapa Zihuatanejo International ZIH 6 Civ. Paved Yes 8200
          Lazaro Cardenas LZC 12 Civ. Paved No 4900
          El Infiernillo 511 0
          Pablo L Sidar AZG 315 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Puerto Marques Mexico
          Acapulco MXACA Mexico
          Lazaro Cardenas MXLZC Mexico

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Inhernillo El Infiernillo Balsas 1963
          Jose M. Morelos Balsas 1968
          Zicuiran Zicuiran 1957
          Chilatan Tepalcatepec 1986
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Nuxco, Mexico. This height is estimated for 17 Sep 2022 23:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (8 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 16 Sep 2022 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Nuxco Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 19:00 Acapulco Mexico  0.2
          18 Sep 2022 01:00 Coyuquillas Mexico  0.2
          18 Sep 2022 02:00 Calvario Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 07:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 07:00 El Roble Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 21:00 El Papayo Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 19:00 El Marques Mexico  0.1