Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LESTER-22
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 171737
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lester Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
100 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
BUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 98.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal Tropical
Storm watches and warnings for the coast of southwestern Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lester
was estimated to be inland near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 98.5
West. Lester is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). The
depression is forecast to continue moving inland during the next few
hours.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. The center of Lester will likely dissipate this
afternoon.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Lester can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO
header WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Lester is forecast to produce rainfall totals across the
following Mexican states through Sunday:

Coastal Michoacan and coastal Guerrero: 8 to 12 inches with maximum
totals of 16 inches

Central to Western coastal Oaxaca, coastal Colima and coastal
Jalisco: 3 to 6 inches with local maximum totals of 12 inches.

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Lester are affecting portions of the
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, and this will continue
today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 171437
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

Lester's overnight improvement in organization was short lived.
Several microwave overpasses during the last few hours show a
distinct lack of organized convective banding, and little evidence
that a well-defined circulation still exists. It is possible that
close proximity to land has severely disrupted Lester's structure
since it has been very difficult to locate the cyclone's center in
traditional IR or Visible imagery this morning. With the center of
Lester well-hidden below higher clouds, the uncertainty in the
initial position and motion are unusually high, which also
translates to high uncertainty in the intensity estimate since the
Dvorak technique is very dependent on center location. The initial
intensity of 35 kt is based on a blend of recent Dvorak fixes, but
should be considered within that uncertain context.

Significant strengthening is not supported by any guidance and
appears unlikely with Lester so close to land, so the biggest threat
will be very heavy rain leading to flash and urban flooding across
portions of the southwest coast of Mexico. Mudslides will also be
possible in areas of high terrain. That threat will exist over a
wide area regardless of Lester's position or intensity, and will
persist today even after Lester dissipates. Users are therefore
urged to not put much weight into the specifics of the NHC track and
intensity forecasts, which shows Lester moving inland and
dissipating later today. This scenario is supported by all of the
dynamical models, with some (like the ECMWF, UKMET and CMC models)
indicating that Lester may have already moved inland.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Lester will continue for portions of coastal
southern Mexico into Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and
urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
coastal terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 16.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 17.3N 99.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 171437
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lester Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

...CENTER OF LESTER VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL PERSIST TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 99.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Escondido to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Zihuatanejo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lester was
estimated to be near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 99.0 West.
Lester is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The
tropical storm is forecast to continue moving toward the coast
during the next few hours and should move inland over southwestern
Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid weakening leading to dissipation is expected once the center
of Lester reaches the coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Lester can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header
WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Lester is forecast to produce rainfall totals across the
following Mexican states through Sunday:

Coastal Michoacan and coastal Guerrero: 8 to 12 inches with maximum
totals of 16 inches

Central to Western coastal Oaxaca, coastal Colima and coastal
Jalisco: 3 to 6 inches with local maximum totals of 12 inches.

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast within the tropical storm warning area and are possible within
the tropical storm watch area during the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Lester are affecting portions of the
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, and this will continue
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 171436
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM LESTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 17 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ESCONDIDO TO ZIHUATANEJO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 99.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 70 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 150SE 120SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 99.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 98.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.3N 99.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 99.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 171149
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lester Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
700 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 98.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Escondido to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Zihuatanejo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lester was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 98.6 West. Lester is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue through today. On the forecast track, the
center of the Lester is expected to move near or over the coast of
southwestern Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening leading to dissipation is expected once the
center of Lester reaches the coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Lester can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header
WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Lester is forecast to produce the following additional
rainfall across coastal portions of the following Mexican states
through Sunday:

Western Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, into Jalisco: 3 to 6
inches with local maximum totals of 12 inches.

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast within the tropical storm warning area and are possible within
the tropical storm watch area by this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Lester are affecting portions of the
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, and this will continue
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 171000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (LESTER) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (LESTER) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 15.1N 98.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 98.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.7N 99.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.1N 101.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.6N 102.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
171000Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 98.7W.
17SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 13E (LESTER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1475
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171600Z, 172200Z, 180400Z
AND 181000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 170855
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
400 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

Lester has become slightly better organized overnight. Deep
convection has continuously pulsed west and southwest (in the
downshear quadrants) of the estimated low-level circulation through
the night with cloud top temperatures below -80 degrees C.
Subjective and objective Dvorak classifications range between 35-45
kt and the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt to
represent a blend of these estimates.

The storm is moving northwestward at about 9 kt in the southeasterly
flow between a cyclonic gyre to the west and a mid-level ridge
centered over Texas and northern Mexico. This general motion is
expected to continue until landfall. The official forecast track
has changed little from the previous advisory. The center of
Lester is expected to reach the coast of Mexico later this afternoon
or evening and then dissipate as it moves inland on Sunday.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to remain the same
until the storm moves inland. Lester is over very warm waters and
surrounded by high environmental moisture. However, the storm
continues to experience moderate northeasterly shear that should
persist until landfall. Combined, these factors will likely allow
for some slight strengthening. The NHC forecast still shows a peak
of 45 kt as Lester reaches the coast. The cyclone should rapidly
weaken over the high terrain shortly thereafter and dissipate within
a couple of days.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Lester will continue for portions of coastal
southern Mexico into Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and
urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
coastal terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread along the coast
of southwestern Mexico today within the Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 15.4N 98.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 16.7N 99.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 18.1N 101.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 18/1800Z 19.6N 102.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 170855
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lester Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
400 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS MORNING IN
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 98.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Escondido to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Zihuatanejo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lester was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 98.6 West. Lester is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through today. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is expected to move near or over the coast of
southwestern Mexico later today, and dissipate over southwestern
Mexico Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast until the center crosses the coast
of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Lester can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header
WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Lester is forecast to produce the following additional
rainfall across coastal portions of the following Mexican states
through Sunday:

Western Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, into Jalisco: 3 to 6
inches with local maximum totals of 12 inches.

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of
the coast within the tropical storm warning area this morning, and
are possible within the tropical storm watch area by this afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Lester are affecting portions of the
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico and this will continue
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 170854
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM LESTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132022
0900 UTC SAT SEP 17 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ESCONDIDO TO ZIHUATANEJO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 98.6W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 120SE 90SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 98.6W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 98.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.7N 99.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.1N 101.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.6N 102.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 98.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 17/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 170549
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lester Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
100 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS MORNING IN
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 98.3W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Escondido to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Zihuatanejo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lester was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 98.3 West. Lester is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through today. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is expected to move near or over the coast of
southwestern Mexico later today, and dissipate over southwestern
Mexico Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the center crosses
the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Lester can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header
WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Lester is forecast to produce rainfall totals across the
following Mexican states:

Coastal Oaxaca, lower coast of Guerrero, coastal Colima and coastal
Jalisco: 3-6 inches with local maximum totals of 10 inches.

Upper coast of Guerrero and coastal Michoacan: 8 to 12 inches with
maximum totals of 16 inches.

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of
the coast within the tropical storm warning area early this morning,
and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by this
afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Lester are affecting portions of the
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico and this will continue
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 170237
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Convection associated with Lester has become more concentrated to
the southwest of the center in a sheared convective burst.
However, this has not yet resulted in significant strengthening, as
the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
remain near 35 kt. Thus, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

The storm continues to move northwestward or 315/10 kt. The
cyclone should continue to move in this general direction as it is
steered in the southeasterly flow between a cyclonic gyre to its
west and a mid-level ridge ridge over Texas and northern Mexico. On
the forecast track, the center of Lester should cross the coast of
Mexico Saturday afternoon or evening, then continue to move inland
until the system dissipates. The new official forecast track is
little changed from the previous track.

Lester is being affected by about 20 kt of northeasterly vertical
wind shear, and moderate shear should continue until landfall.
However, the combination of very warm sea surface temperatures and
a moist environment should allow some strengthening, and the
intensity forecast shows a peak intensity of 45 kt near landfall.
After landfall, Lester should rapidly weaken over the mountains of
Mexico, and the system is expected to dissipate between 36-48 h.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Lester will reach portions of coastal southern
Mexico during the next few hours, increasing in coverage and
intensity Saturday and Saturday night, spreading farther west on
Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along
with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread along the coast
of southern Mexico tonight and Saturday within the Tropical Storm
Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 14.8N 97.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 15.9N 99.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 17.4N 100.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/1200Z 19.1N 102.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 170236
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lester Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...LESTER EXPECTED TO CAUSE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT...
...HEAVY RAINS ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 97.8W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Escondido to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Zihuatanejo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lester was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 97.8 West. Lester is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday night. On the forecast track,
the center of the cyclone is expected to move near or over the coast
of southwestern Mexico Saturday or Saturday night, and dissipate
over southwestern Mexico Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast until the center crosses the
coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Lester can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header
WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Lester is forecast to produce rainfall totals across the
following Mexican states:

Coastal Oaxaca, lower coast of Guerrero, coastal Colima and coastal
Jalisco: 3-6 inches with local maximum totals of 10 inches.

Upper coast of Guerrero and coastal Michoacan: 8 to 12 inches with
maximum totals of 16 inches.

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area overnight, and are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Saturday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Lester are affecting portions of the
coast of southern Mexico and this will continue into the weekend.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 170236
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM LESTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132022
0300 UTC SAT SEP 17 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ESCONDIDO TO ZIHUATANEJO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 97.8W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 97.8W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 97.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.9N 99.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.4N 100.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.1N 102.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 97.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 17/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 162339
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lester Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
700 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...LESTER MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 97.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Escondido to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Zihuatanejo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lester was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 97.5 West. Lester is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday night. On the forecast track,
the center of the cyclone is expected to move near or over the coast
of southwestern Mexico Saturday or Saturday night, and dissipate
over southwestern Mexico on Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast through Saturday morning.
Rapid weakening is expected after the center crosses the coast of
Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Lester can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header
WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Lester is forecast to produce rainfall totals across the
following Mexican states:

Coastal Oaxaca, lower coast of Guerrero, coastal Colima and coastal
Jalisco: 3 to 6 inches with local maximum totals of 10 inches.

Upper coast of Guerrero and coastal Michoacan: 8 to 12 inches with
maximum totals of 16 inches.

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning tonight, and are possible within the tropical
storm watch area by Saturday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Lester are affecting portions of the
coast of southern Mexico and this will continue into the weekend.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 162035
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
400 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Lester's appearance has remained nearly the same since early this
morning. The cyclone continues to battle moderate
east-northeasterly shear of about 15-20 kt, which is causing the
center to remain near, or just east of, its associated deep
convection. An 1548 UTC ASCAT overpass showed peak wind vectors of
32 kt. Therefore, the advisory intensity is being held at 35 kt.

The storm is now moving a little faster to the northwest, or 310/10
kt. Lester should continue to move in this direction for the next
couple of days as the cyclone is steered within the flow between a
cyclonic gyre to its west and a ridge over Texas. The latest NHC
forecast track was nudged slightly to the east following the recent
shift in the guidance. Due to the combination of the slight eastward
track adjustment and ASCAT verification of tropical-storm-force
winds about 70 n mi northeast of the center, the Government of
Mexico expanded the Tropical Storm Warning eastward to Puerto
Escondido. Based on the latest forecast track, the center of Lester
should reach the coastline of Mexico by Saturday afternoon or
evening.

Although Lester is within a thermodynamic environment of very high
atmospheric moisture and over warm waters of 28-29 degrees Celsius,
the shear currently affecting the cyclone is forecast to persist
through landfall. Therefore, only gradual intensification is
expected during that time. After landfall, Lester should rapidly
weaken over the rugged terrain of western Mexico, and the cyclone is
forecast to dissipate by Sunday. Because Lester was not able to take
advantage of the time it had over water today to strengthen, the
latest NHC intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the
previous one and is close to the various intensity consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Lester will reach portions of coastal southern
Mexico by this evening, increasing in coverage and intensity
Saturday and Saturday night, spreading farther west on Sunday. This
rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible
mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of
southern Mexico tonight and Saturday within the Tropical Storm
Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 14.3N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 15.1N 98.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 16.6N 99.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 18.1N 101.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 162034
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lester Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
400 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO TO PUERTO ESCONDIDO...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 97.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
eastward to Puerto Escondido.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Escondido to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Zihuatanejo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lester was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 97.3 West. Lester is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday night. On the forecast track,
the center of the cyclone is expected to move near or over the coast
of southwestern Mexico Saturday or Saturday night, and dissipate
over southwestern Mexico on Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast through Saturday morning. Rapid
weakening is expected after the center crosses the coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Lester can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header
WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Lester is forecast to produce rainfall totals across the
following Mexican states:

Coastal Oaxaca, lower coast of Guerrero, coastal Colima and coastal
Jalisco: 3 to 6 inches with local maximum totals of 10 inches.

Upper coast of Guerrero and coastal Michoacan: 8 to 12 inches with
maximum totals of 16 inches.

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning tonight, and are possible within the tropical
storm watch area by Saturday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Lester are affecting portions of the
coast of southern Mexico and this will continue into the weekend.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 162034
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM LESTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132022
2100 UTC FRI SEP 16 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
EASTWARD TO PUERTO ESCONDIDO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ESCONDIDO TO ZIHUATANEJO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 97.3W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 97.3W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 96.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.1N 98.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.6N 99.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.1N 101.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 97.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 17/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 161752
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lester Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
100 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...LESTER EXPECTED TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 96.9W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...18 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta Maldonado to Laguna de Chacahua
* West of Zihuatanejo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lester was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 96.9 West. Lester is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (18 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue through early Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of the cyclone is expected to move near or over the coast
of southwestern Mexico Saturday or Saturday night, and dissipate
over southwestern Mexico on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so.
Rapid weakening is expected after the center crosses the coast of
Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Lester can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header
WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Lester is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with local maximum totals of 10 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican States of western Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. These rains may
produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in
areas of higher coastal terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning areas and possible within the watch area beginning early
Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lester are affecting portions of the
coast of southern Mexico and this will continue into the weekend.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 161436
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Lester remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center
occasionally becoming exposed to the east of the deep convection.
The overall appearance of the storm has changed little since early
this morning, and the latest subjective and objective Dvorak
intensity estimates support keeping the advisory intensity at 35
kt.

The storm has made its anticipated turn to the northwest and is on
on a heading of 310/7 kt. Lester should continue to move in this
direction for the next couple of days with a slight increase in
forward speed by later today as the cyclone is steered within the
flow between a cyclonic gyre to its west and a building ridge over
Texas. The latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the
previous one, and is near the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means. On this
track, the center of Lester should reach the coastline of Mexico by
Saturday afternoon or evening.

Although Lester is within a thermodynamic environment of very high
atmospheric moisture and over warm waters of of 28-29 degrees
Celsius, the moderate (15-20 kt) east-northeasterly shear currently
affecting the cyclone is forecast to persist through landfall.
Therefore, only gradual intensification is expected during that
time. After landfall, Lester should rapidly weaken over the rugged
terrain of western Mexico, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate
on Sunday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the
previous one and is close to the various intensity consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Lester will reach portions of coastal southern
Mexico by this evening, increasing in coverage and intensity
Saturday and Saturday night, spreading farther west on Sunday. This
rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible
mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of
southern Mexico on Saturday within the Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 13.7N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 14.4N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 15.7N 99.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 17.2N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...ON THE COAST
48H 18/1200Z 18.7N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 161435
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lester Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...LESTER MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 96.5W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta Maldonado to Laguna de Chacahua
* West of Zihuatanejo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lester was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 96.5 West. Lester is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slightly faster
northwestward motion is expected to begin later today. On the
forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to move near
or over the coast of southwestern Mexico Saturday or Saturday
night, and dissipate over southwestern Mexico on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Rapid
weakening is expected after the center crosses the coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Lester can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header
WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Lester is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with local maximum totals of 10 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican States of western Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. These rains may
produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in
areas of higher coastal terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning areas and possible within the watch area beginning early
Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lester are affecting portions of the
coast of southern Mexico and this will continue into the weekend.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 161435
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM LESTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132022
1500 UTC FRI SEP 16 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA MALDONADO TO ZIHUATANEJO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA
* WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 96.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 96.5W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 96.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.4N 97.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.7N 99.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.2N 100.8W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.7N 102.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 96.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 16/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 161144
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lester Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
700 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM LESTER EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 96.1W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta Maldonado to Laguna de Chacahua
* West of Zihuatanejo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lester was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 96.1 West. Lester is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). An increase in
forward speed toward the northwest is expected over the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is
expected to move near or over the coast of southwestern Mexico
Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Lester can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header
WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Lester is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with local totals of 10 inches across coastal portions of the
Mexican States of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and into
Jalisco through Monday. These rains may produce flash and urban
flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher coastal
terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning areas and possible within the watch area beginning early
Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lester are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southern Mexico later today and continue
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 160858
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
400 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm
Lester. While the storm still has a sheared appearance, recent
scatterometer data indicate that surface wind speeds have
increased in the southern half of the circulation and show an area
of 30-32 kt winds. Satellite Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB
range between 30-35 kt. Given the potential for undersampling in the
satellite winds, the initial intensity for this advisory is set at
35 kt.

The cyclone is currently moving north-northwestward at about 4 kt.
Model guidance agrees that the storm should turn northwestward
shortly within the eastern portion of the monsoonal flow. Over the
next couple of days, Lester is expected to increase in forward speed
as it moves toward the Mexican coast, and the center is forecast to
cross the coastline sometime Saturday afternoon or evening. The
official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and
remains close to the model consensus aids.

Lester is expected to remain embedded in moderate northeasterly
vertical wind shear for the next 48 h. Global model guidance
suggests other atmospheric and oceanic conditions, such as
environmental moisture and sea surface temperatures, should be
conducive for possible strengthening. Therefore, the NHC intensity
forecast still shows gradual strengthening until landfall along the
coast of Mexico. The storm is expected to rapidly weaken once it
moves inland over the mountainous terrain.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Lester will reach portions of
coastal southern Mexico by this evening, increasing in coverage and
intensity Saturday and Saturday night, spreading farther west on
Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along
with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of
southern Mexico on Saturday within the Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 13.2N 95.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 13.8N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 15.0N 98.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 16.4N 99.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 18.0N 101.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1800Z 19.0N 103.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 160857
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lester Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
400 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM LESTER...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 95.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo, and
issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Zihuatanejo to Lazaro Cardenas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Laguna de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado
* Zihuatanejo westward to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lester was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 95.9 West. Lester is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of
the cyclone is expected to move near or over the coast of
southwestern Mexico Saturday or Saturday night.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual
strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Lester can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header
WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3-6
inches with local totals of 10 inches across coastal portions of the
Mexican States of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and into
Jalisco through Monday. These rains may produce flash and urban
flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher coastal
terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning areas and possible within the watch area beginning early
Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin
affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico later today and
continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 160857
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM LESTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132022
0900 UTC FRI SEP 16 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
PUNTA MALDONADO TO ZIHUATANEJO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
ZIHUATANEJO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO
* ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 95.9W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 95.9W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 95.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.8N 96.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.0N 98.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.4N 99.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.0N 101.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.0N 103.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 95.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 16/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 160551
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
100 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 95.6W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Laguna de Chacahua westward to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required for portions of the
watch area later today. Interests elsewhere along the southwestern
coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen-E was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 95.6
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5
mph (7 km/h). A northwestward motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of the cyclone is expected to move near or over
the coast of southwestern Mexico Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm
later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3-6
inches with local totals of 10 inches across coastal portions of the
Mexican States of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and possibly
Jalisco through Sunday. These rains may produce flash and urban
flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain
near the coast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin
affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico later today and
continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 160234
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

Satellite imagery indicates little change in the organization of
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, with the convection continuing in
loosely organized bands displaced to the west and southwest of the
low-level center due to northeasterly vertical wind shear.
Satellite intensity estimates are in the 25-30 kt range, and based
on that data, the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/3. The depression is
forecast to move generally northwestward during the next 2-3 days
around the eastern portion of monsoonal flow that is established
over the eastern Pacific south of Mexico. As this flow strengthens
during the next day or so, the depression should move at a faster
forward speed, with the center forecast to move near or over the
coast of Mexico Saturday or Saturday night. There has been little
change in the track guidance since the last advisory, and the new
forecast track is very similar to the previous track.

Moderate northeasterly shear should continue to affect the cyclone
during the time it is over water, and thus only gradual
intensification is expected. The new intensity forecast calls for
the depression to become a tropical storm late tonight or on
Friday, and shows continued gradual strengthening until landfall on
the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall,
and the cyclone should dissipate over the mountains of Mexico by 72
h. The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the
previous forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Tropical Depression Thirteen-E will reach
portions of coastal southern Mexico on Friday, increasing in
coverage and intensity by Saturday and Saturday night. This
rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with isolated
mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
southern Mexico between Laguna de Chacahua and Zihautenajo beginning
on Saturday and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that
area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 12.8N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 13.4N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 14.4N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 15.7N 99.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 17.3N 100.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1200Z 19.0N 102.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 160233
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STILL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 95.8W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Laguna de Chacahua westward to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required for portions of
the watch area later tonight or Friday morning. Interests
elsewhere along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen-E was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 95.8
West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6
km/h). A northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is expected to move near or over the coast of
southwestern Mexico Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight
or Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3-6
inches with local totals of 10 inches across coastal portions of the
Mexican States of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and possibly
Jalisco through Sunday. These rains may produce flash and urban
flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain
near the coast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin
affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico by late Friday
and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 160233
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132022
0300 UTC FRI SEP 16 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. INTERESTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 95.8W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 95.8W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 95.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.4N 96.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.4N 97.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.7N 99.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.3N 100.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.0N 102.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 95.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 16/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 152334
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
700 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 95.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Laguna de Chacahua westward to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen-E was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 95.6
West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6
km/h). A northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is expected to approach the southern coast of
Mexico within the watch area on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm
tonight or Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3-6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican States of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacán
through Sunday morning. These rains may produce flash and urban
flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain
near the coast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin
affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico by late Friday
and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 152052
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
400 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

Visible satellite imagery and a couple of recent partial ASCAT
overpasses indicate that the circulation associated with the area
of low pressure located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become
better defined. A curved band of convection is located over the
western and southwestern portions of the circulation and has enough
organization to designate the system as a tropical depression. The
ASCAT-C instrument measured peak winds of 25-27 kt over the
southeastern portion of the circulation and since stronger winds
likely exist within the convection, the initial intensity is set at
30 kt. This is a little above the latest Dvorak estimate of T1.5
(25 kt) from TAFB.

Since the cyclone is still in its formative stage, the initial
motion is a highly uncertain 310/3 kt. The depression is forecast
to move generally northwestward during the next few days around the
eastern portion of monsoonal flow that is established over the
eastern Pacific south of Mexico. As this flow strengthens during
the next day or so, the depression should move northwestward at an
increasingly faster forward speed, and the center of the cyclone is
forecast to approach the southern coast of Mexico on Saturday. The
GFS and ECMWF models have come into better agreement on the general
heading of the system, but there are some differences regarding how
much the cyclone accelerates. The ECMWF is on the faster side of
the guidance and brings the center onshore about 6-12 hours sooner
than the GFS. The NHC track is between these solutions and is
along the eastern side of the model trackers. It should be noted
that the global model trackers appear to be latching onto another
low-level vorticity center that is embedded within the monsoonal
flow after 48 hours. As a result, the NHC track forecast more
closely follows the model fields from the various global models.

The depression is located over warm waters and within a moist
environment, however moderate northeasterly shear is forecast to
persist over the system during the next couple of days. This shear
is likely to prevent significant intensification, but gradual
strengthening is anticipated. The NHC forecast calls for the
depression to become a tropical storm tonight or Friday and shows
some additional modest increase in strength before the center
reaches the coast. Rapid weakening should occur after landfall. The
NHC intensity forecast is a little below the SHIPS model and IVCN
consensus aids due to the current broad wind field and expected
shear conditions.

Based on this forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a
tropical storm watch for a portion of the coast of southern Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains will reach portions of coastal southern Mexico on
Friday, increasing in coverage and intensity by Saturday and
Saturday night. This rainfall may produce flash and urban
flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
southern Mexico between Laguna de Chacahua and Zihautenajo beginning
on Saturday and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issue for that
area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 12.7N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 13.3N 96.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 14.1N 97.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 15.1N 98.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 16.9N 100.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 18.4N 101.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 152050
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
400 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 95.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along
the coast of southern Mexico from Laguna de Chacahua westward to
Zihuatanejo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Laguna de Chacahua westward to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen-E was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 95.4
West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph
(6 km/h). A northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed
is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
the center of the cyclone is expected to approach the southern
coast of Mexico within the watch area on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight
or Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3-6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican States of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacán
through Sunday morning. These rains may produce flash and urban
flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain
near the coast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin
affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico by late Friday
and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 152050
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132022
2100 UTC THU SEP 15 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO
ZIHUATANEJO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 95.4W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 95.4W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 95.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.3N 96.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.1N 97.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.1N 98.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.9N 100.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.4N 101.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 95.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 16/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>