Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HERMINE-22
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 250840
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
800 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022

Hermine's structure overnight has deteriorated further. While
occasional intermittent bursts of deep convection are still
occurring to the north of the elongated surface circulation, this
convection lacks organization. The system no longer meets the
definition of a tropical cyclone and, therefore, is being declared
a remnant low and this will be the last NHC advisory on Hermine.

Strong southwesterly shear greater than 40 kt and a high
statically stable surrounding Saharan air mass should prevent the
regeneration of organized convection during the next several days.
The global models and the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance
agree that the remnant low will open up into a trough of low
pressure Tuesday, and the official forecast follows suit.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 010/6 kt. This
general motion is expected to continue today while the cyclone
moves around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge.
Beyond Monday morning, the remnant low is forecast to turn toward
the northwest and west-northwest in response to the above mention
ridge building westward over the extreme eastern tropical Atlantic.
The NHC forecast track is based on the various consensus aids and
is similar to the previous advisory.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and
available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 23.6N 20.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 25/1800Z 24.3N 19.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/0600Z 24.6N 20.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1800Z 24.9N 21.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 250839
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
800 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022

...HERMINE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS
THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 20.2W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM NNE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Hermine was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 20.2 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday
followed by a slow turn toward the northwest early Monday and a
turn to the west-northwest Monday evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. Hermine is expected to dissipate in a couple of
days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce 3 to 6 (75 to 150 mm)
inches of rainfall with localized higher amounts up to 10 inches
(250 mm) across the Canary Islands through Monday. This rainfall may
cause some flash flooding in areas of higher terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Hermine. Additional information on Hermine can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 250839
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102022
0900 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 20.2W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 20.2W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 20.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.3N 19.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.6N 20.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 24.9N 21.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 20.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 250232
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Hermine Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
200 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022

Hermine is barely holding on a as a tropical cyclone. Southwesterly
vertical wind shear has increased to nearly 30 kt which has stripped
away the cyclone's deep convection across the Canary Islands. The
advisory intensity is set at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak CI
value from TAFB. The shear is forecast to increase dramatically to
50 kt by 24 h, and 70 kt by 48 h while Hermine remains over marginal
SSTs and in a dry thermodynamic environment. Therefore, there is
fairly high confidence that sustained organized deep convection will
not regenerate near the center of the cyclone, and the system should
become a remnant low later this morning. The NHC intensity forecast
is unchanged from the previous one.

The depression is moving northward at 10 kt, and that motion is
expected to continue during the next day or so while Hermine moves
in the flow on the west side of a subtropical ridge. After that
time, a building surface ridge north of the cyclone should cause it
to turn west-northwestward or northwestward. The NHC track forecast
is little changed from the previous one and remains near the middle
of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 22.9N 20.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 24.0N 20.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/0000Z 24.7N 19.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1200Z 25.2N 20.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z 25.5N 21.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1200Z 26.1N 23.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 250232
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Hermine Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
200 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022

...HERMINE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 20.3W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM NNE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hermine
was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 20.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. After that
time, a turn toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Hermine is expected to become a remnant
low later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce 3 to 6 (75 to 150 mm)
inches of rainfall with localized higher amounts up to 10 inches
(250 mm) across the Canary Islands through Monday. This rainfall may
cause some flash flooding in areas of higher terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 250231
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102022
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 20.3W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 20.3W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 20.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.7N 19.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.2N 20.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.5N 21.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.1N 23.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 20.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 242039
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Hermine Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
800 PM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022

Hermine has generally changed little during the past several hours
and it continues to produce heavy rains across the Canary Islands.
The cyclone remains strongly sheared with the low-level center
exposed well to the south-southwest of the main area of deep
convection due to strong southwesterly shear. The initial intensity
is lowered to 30 kt, which is near the high end of the satellite
estimates. This makes Hermine a tropical depression.

The storm is moving northward at 9 kt, and that motion is expected
to continue during the next day or two while Hermine moves in the
flow on the west side of a subtropical ridge. After that time, a
turn toward the left is expected as the shallow system is steered by
the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle
of the guidance envelope.

Hermine is expected to move into a region of even stronger shear,
drier air, and cooler SSTs, which should cause the storm to
slowly weaken. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite images show
that the system should lose all of its deep convection tomorrow,
and the NHC forecast now shows the system becoming a remnant low in
24 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 21.8N 20.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 23.1N 20.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 24.0N 20.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0600Z 24.7N 20.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1800Z 25.1N 21.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0600Z 25.4N 22.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 242038
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102022
2100 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 20.6W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 20.6W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 20.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 23.1N 20.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.0N 20.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.7N 20.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.1N 21.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.4N 22.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 20.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 242038
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Hermine Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
800 PM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022

...HERMINE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 20.6W
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM NNE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hermine
was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 20.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. After
that time, a turn toward the northwest is expected.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Hermine is expected
to become a remnant low in a day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce 3 to 6 (75 to 150 mm)
inches of rainfall with localized higher amounts up to 10 inches
(250 mm) across the Canary Islands through this weekend. This
rainfall may cause some flash flooding in areas of higher terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 241436
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
200 PM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022

Hermine is a strongly sheared and weak tropical cyclone. Satellite
images indicate that the low-level center is exposed well to the
south-southwest of the main area of deep convection. A recent
ASCAT-B pass caught the eastern half of the storm and showed
peak winds of about 30 kt well northeast of the center. Based on
this data and the Dvorak estimates, Hermine is being held at a
35-kt tropical storm for this advisory, but that could be a little
generous. Regardless, the main impact is heavy rain that continues
across the Canary Islands.

The storm is moving northward at 7 kt and that motion is expected
to continue during the next day or two while Hermine moves in the
flow on the west side of a subtropical ridge. After that time, a
turn toward the left is expected as the shallow system is steered by
the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle
of the guidance envelope.

Hermine is currently experiencing about 20 kt of southwesterly
vertical wind shear. Since the shear is expected to increase while
Hermine moves into a region of cooler SSTs and drier air, weakening
is forecast. Hermine is now predicted to become a remnant low in
36 hours, but given recent trends and the expected environment, the
transition to a post-tropical cyclone could occur sooner than that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 20.8N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 22.1N 20.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 23.6N 20.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 24.5N 20.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1200Z 25.0N 20.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0000Z 25.4N 21.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 241435
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hermine Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
200 PM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 20.8W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM NNE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 20.8 West. Hermine is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue during the next day or two. After that time,
a turn toward the northwest is expected.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Hermine is expected to become a
remnant low in a day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce 3 to 6 (75 to 150 mm)
inches of rainfall with localized higher amounts up to 10 inches
(250 mm) across the Canary Islands through this weekend. This
rainfall may cause some flash flooding in areas of higher terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 241435
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 20.8W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 20.8W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 20.8W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.1N 20.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.6N 20.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.5N 20.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.0N 20.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.4N 21.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 20.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 240845
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
800 AM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022

Hermine is barely holding on as a tropical storm. This morning's
satellite presentation consists of an exposed surface circulation
situated well to the south-southwest of the deep convective mass.
The initial intensity is set at a generous 35 kt.

The southwesterly shear is currently affecting Hermine's cloud
pattern is predicted to increase while the thermodynamic
surrounding environment becomes progressively inhibiting.
Therefore, Hermine may hang on as a tropical storm today, but
weakening is expected to occur soon, and the cyclone should
degenerate into a remnant low-pressure system on Monday.
The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous
one, and is on the high end of the guidance.

The 0900 UTC position is based on a centroid point between
multiple surface swirls, one well to the south of the
convection and another near the edge of the convective canopy.
Hermine's initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 355/9 kt.
Hermine is expected to turn toward the northeast around the
northwest periphery of the east Atlantic subtropical ridge Sunday
evening. By Monday evening, the vertically shallow remnant low
should turn toward the northwest in the east Atlantic trade wind
flow. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast,
which lies in the middle of the model guidance suite.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 20.2N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 21.5N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 23.3N 20.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 24.6N 20.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 25.4N 20.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 25.7N 21.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0600Z 26.2N 22.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 240845
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hermine Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
800 AM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE CANARY
ISLANDS...
...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 20.8W
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM NE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 20.8 West. Hermine is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the northeast should
occur by late Sunday, followed by a turn to the northwest by Monday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected to commence tonight, and Hermine could become
a remnant low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Hermine is expected to produce 3 to 6 (75
to 150 mm) inches of rainfall with localized higher amounts up to 10
inches (250 mm) across the Canary Islands through this weekend. This
rainfall may cause some flash flooding in areas of higher terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 240845
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102022
0900 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 20.8W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 20.8W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 20.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.5N 20.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 23.3N 20.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.6N 20.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.4N 20.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.7N 21.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 26.2N 22.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 20.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 240412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 24.09.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.2N 36.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2022 0 11.2N 36.1W 1012 17
1200UTC 24.09.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE FIONA ANALYSED POSITION : 42.2N 60.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2022 0 42.2N 60.2W 931 83
1200UTC 24.09.2022 12 46.8N 61.1W 943 62
0000UTC 25.09.2022 24 49.0N 60.0W 961 52
1200UTC 25.09.2022 36 53.0N 57.7W 980 36
0000UTC 26.09.2022 48 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 71.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2022 0 14.7N 71.5W 1008 25
1200UTC 24.09.2022 12 14.3N 74.1W 1006 24
0000UTC 25.09.2022 24 14.5N 76.0W 1005 29
1200UTC 25.09.2022 36 15.0N 78.2W 1004 29
0000UTC 26.09.2022 48 16.5N 79.9W 1003 31
1200UTC 26.09.2022 60 19.0N 81.9W 1000 37
0000UTC 27.09.2022 72 21.3N 83.6W 997 37
1200UTC 27.09.2022 84 23.4N 84.6W 994 38
0000UTC 28.09.2022 96 25.2N 84.4W 993 47
1200UTC 28.09.2022 108 26.5N 83.9W 993 52
0000UTC 29.09.2022 120 27.4N 83.0W 994 51
1200UTC 29.09.2022 132 28.2N 82.7W 996 47
0000UTC 30.09.2022 144 29.2N 82.1W 998 46

TROPICAL STORM NEWTON ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N 111.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2022 0 18.2N 111.8W 1007 23
1200UTC 24.09.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM GASTON ANALYSED POSITION : 39.1N 29.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2022 0 39.1N 29.1W 1001 40
1200UTC 24.09.2022 12 38.1N 30.3W 1007 36
0000UTC 25.09.2022 24 38.6N 32.6W 1008 39
1200UTC 25.09.2022 36 39.4N 35.8W 1005 38
0000UTC 26.09.2022 48 38.9N 37.1W 1011 35
1200UTC 26.09.2022 60 39.1N 39.1W 1017 27
0000UTC 27.09.2022 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 21.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2022 0 18.1N 21.6W 1006 34
1200UTC 24.09.2022 12 20.0N 21.9W 1005 30
0000UTC 25.09.2022 24 21.1N 21.6W 1006 27
1200UTC 25.09.2022 36 22.7N 21.1W 1008 22
0000UTC 26.09.2022 48 23.2N 20.4W 1009 23
1200UTC 26.09.2022 60 23.4N 21.6W 1010 25
0000UTC 27.09.2022 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.7N 37.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2022 96 13.7N 37.0W 1009 26
1200UTC 28.09.2022 108 15.0N 37.1W 1010 25
0000UTC 29.09.2022 120 16.7N 37.5W 1010 28
1200UTC 29.09.2022 132 18.9N 39.1W 1011 31
0000UTC 30.09.2022 144 21.9N 40.6W 1012 37


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 240412

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 240412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.09.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.2N 36.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.09.2022 11.2N 36.1W WEAK
12UTC 24.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE FIONA ANALYSED POSITION : 42.2N 60.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.09.2022 42.2N 60.2W INTENSE
12UTC 24.09.2022 46.8N 61.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2022 49.0N 60.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 25.09.2022 53.0N 57.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 26.09.2022 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 71.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.09.2022 14.7N 71.5W WEAK
12UTC 24.09.2022 14.3N 74.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2022 14.5N 76.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2022 15.0N 78.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2022 16.5N 79.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2022 19.0N 81.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2022 21.3N 83.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2022 23.4N 84.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2022 25.2N 84.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2022 26.5N 83.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2022 27.4N 83.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2022 28.2N 82.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2022 29.2N 82.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM NEWTON ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N 111.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.09.2022 18.2N 111.8W WEAK
12UTC 24.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM GASTON ANALYSED POSITION : 39.1N 29.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.09.2022 39.1N 29.1W WEAK
12UTC 24.09.2022 38.1N 30.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2022 38.6N 32.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2022 39.4N 35.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2022 38.9N 37.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2022 39.1N 39.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 21.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.09.2022 18.1N 21.6W WEAK
12UTC 24.09.2022 20.0N 21.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2022 21.1N 21.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2022 22.7N 21.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2022 23.2N 20.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2022 23.4N 21.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.7N 37.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.09.2022 13.7N 37.0W WEAK
12UTC 28.09.2022 15.0N 37.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2022 16.7N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2022 18.9N 39.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2022 21.9N 40.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 240412

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 240237
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
200 AM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022

Hermine has changed little in organization since earlier this
evening. Persistent deep convection has been occurring in the
northeastern quadrant, with the estimated low-level circulation
center located just to the southwest of the edge of the convection.
The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB.

The cyclone has turned northward and is moving at a heading of 350/9
kt toward a break in the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge. A
northward to northeastward motion is expected into early next week
while Hermine remains in tact. A turn to the northwest is expected
by 72 h as the cyclone becomes shallow and steered by the low-level
flow. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one through
60 h, but is a little to the right thereafter due to an overall
shift in the track guidance.

Hermine now has about 18-24 hours to intensify in the presence of
marginal SSTs and moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear. After
24 h, the southwesterly shear is forecast to progressively increase
while dry air gets pulled into the storm's environment. Therefore
weakening is expected after that time, and both the ECMWF and GFS
simulated satellite imagery suggests that Hermine should degenerate
into a remnant low devoid of deep convection on Monday. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is on
the high end of the guidance.

Hermine is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated
totals of 6 inches, over the Canary Islands through this weekend due
to a combination of a mid-latitude trough and moisture from the
cyclone. This rainfall could cause some flash flooding in areas of
higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 19.4N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 20.7N 21.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 22.3N 21.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 23.8N 20.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 24.7N 20.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 25.4N 20.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0000Z 26.1N 21.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0000Z 27.8N 25.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 240237
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102022
0300 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 20.8W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 20.8W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 20.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.7N 21.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.3N 21.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.8N 20.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.7N 20.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.4N 20.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.1N 21.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 27.8N 25.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 20.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 240237
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hermine Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
200 AM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022

...HERMINE HEADING NORTHWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...HEAVY RAINS FORECAST FOR THE CANARY ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 20.8W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM NE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 20.8 West. Hermine is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the northeast should
occur by late Sunday, followed by a turn to the northwest by Monday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible today, with weakening expected to
begin by tonight, and Hermine could become a remnant low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Hermine is expected to produce 2 to 4 (50
to 100 mm) inches of rainfall with localized higher amounts up to 6
inches (150 mm) across the Canary Islands through this weekend. This
rainfall could cause some flash flooding in areas of higher terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 232033
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
800 PM CVT Fri Sep 23 2022

A large burst of convection has been occurring in the northeastern
quadrant of the system today, with other shallow banding features
to the southeast of the center. Overall, the cyclone looks better
than this morning and resembles a sheared tropical storm, which is
confirmed by the Dvorak pattern-T of 2.5 (35 kt) from SAB. Thus
the wind speed is set to 35 kt, making this system the 8th tropical
storm of the season.

Hermine continues moving north-northwestward, now about 10 kt.
Global model guidance is consistent on the cyclone moving northward
through a large break in the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge.
The most significant change is that the storm could hold together a
little longer in a marginal environment, which causes the forecast
track to tug a little to the northeast before a weakening Hermine
would move westward as a shallow system beneath the low-level ridge.
The new forecast is shifted to the north and east, but is not as
far northeast as the GFS or HWRF models.

The storm has about a day over lukewarm water before all the models
hit the system with strong upper-level southwesterly winds. There
is a minority solution in the models where the upper-trough cuts
off, somewhat lessening the shear, but for now the NHC forecast
stays closer to the faster dissipation scenario. Either way, Hermine
should dissipate early next week due to very strong shear and dry
air entrainment cutting off any deep convection. The official
intensity forecast is a little higher than the last one, near the
various consensus aids.

Note that 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals of 6 inches,
are possible over the Canary Islands through this weekend due to a
combination of a mid-latitude trough and moisture from Hermine.
This rainfall could cause some flash flooding in areas of higher
terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 18.6N 20.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 19.8N 21.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 21.6N 21.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 23.1N 21.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 24.1N 20.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 24.5N 21.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1800Z 24.8N 21.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1800Z 26.5N 25.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 232033
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102022
2100 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 20.5W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 20.5W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 20.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.8N 21.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.6N 21.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 23.1N 21.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.1N 20.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.5N 21.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 24.8N 21.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 26.5N 25.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 20.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 232033
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hermine Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
800 PM CVT Fri Sep 23 2022

...THE EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS, BUT IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...HEAVY RAINS FORECAST FOR THE CANARY ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 20.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM NE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 20.5 West. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast this
weekend, with a turn to the northwest possible early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible through
tomorrow, with weakening expected on Sunday, and Hermine could
become a remnant low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Hermine is forecast to produce 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100
mm) of rain, with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm), over the
Canary Islands through this weekend. This rainfall could cause some
flash flooding in areas of higher terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 231445
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
200 PM CVT Fri Sep 23 2022

Satellite images indicate that the strong tropical wave that NHC has
been tracking for several days over western Africa has developed a
well-defined surface center over the far eastern Atlantic with
organized bands of convection. Dropsonde data from a DC-8 aircraft
with the NASA field program Convective Processes EXperiment-Cabo
Verde (CPEX-CV) has been quite useful in determining the central
pressure and surface circulation definition of the low, with the
central pressure of 1003 mb based on the dropsondes. The initial
wind speed is set to 30 kt, perhaps conservatively since the eastern
side of the circulation has not been sampled by scatterometer or
aircraft data.

The system is moving north-northwestward at about 10 kt. A large
break in the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge should cause this
system to move generally northward ahead of a mid-level trough
before turning westward and accelerating as a shallow system beneath
the low-level ridge. The forecast is close to the model consensus,
with heavier weight being placed on the global models than the
regional hurricane track models.

The depression has about a day over warm water in light to moderate
shear before all the models blast the system with strong upper-
level southwesterly winds. Most of the guidance shows this system
becoming a tropical storm before weakening significantly by late
this weekend and dissipating early next week. The official wind
speed prediction is near the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance HCCA.

Note that 2 to 4 inches of rain is possible over the Canary Islands
through this weekend due to a combination of the mid-level trough
and moisture from this system, which is a bit unusual for that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 17.9N 19.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 19.2N 20.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 21.0N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 22.3N 21.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 23.2N 21.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 23.9N 21.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1200Z 24.3N 21.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1200Z 26.0N 26.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 231444
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
200 PM CVT Fri Sep 23 2022

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 19.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM ENE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 19.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed
is forecast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression could become a tropical storm during the next day or
so before weakening later this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)
based on dropsonde data from a NASA DC-8 aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain
across the Canary Islands through this weekend.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 231443
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102022
1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 19.8W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 19.8W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 19.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.2N 20.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.0N 21.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.3N 21.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.2N 21.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.9N 21.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.3N 21.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 26.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 19.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>