Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for GASTON-22
in Portugal

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Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 260234
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gaston Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 AM GMT Mon Sep 26 2022

Gaston lacks organized deep convection and has become post-tropical.
Organized convection is not expected to redevelop due to hostile
upper-level winds and a dry surrounding environment. Therefore, this
is the final NHC advisory. ASCAT data valid at 2353 UTC indicated
peak winds between 30-35 kt on the north side of Gaston. Assuming a
little undersampling may have occurred, the initial intensity was
set on the high end of those estimates at 35 kt.

Gaston is forecast to move generally west-southwestward for the next
day or so, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge that extends across
most of the northern Atlantic. Since deep convection is not expected
to redevelop and no baroclinic forcing is expected to otherwise
sustain the remnants of Gaston, the cyclone should gradually spin
down until it dissipates in about 48 h. No significant changes were
made to the NHC track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 38.6N 38.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/1200Z 38.1N 39.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/0000Z 37.4N 41.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/1200Z 36.8N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 260233
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gaston Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 AM GMT Mon Sep 26 2022

...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON POST-TROPICAL GASTON...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 38.2W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gaston
was located near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 38.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next
day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast for the next day or two. The remnants of
Gaston are forecast to dissipate within the next 48 h.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 260233
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
0300 UTC MON SEP 26 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 38.2W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 38.2W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 37.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 38.1N 39.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 37.4N 41.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 36.8N 44.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 38.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 252036
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
900 PM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022

Gaston this evening consists of a well-defined, low-level swirl
absent of any deep convection. All of the earlier activity
dissipated shortly after 1200 UTC and if deep, organized convection
does not quickly return near the center, Gaston could soon become
post-tropical. Both subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have
been decreasing, though there were enough derived motion winds
between 925-850 mb (around 50 kt) to lower the intensity down to
just 40 kt for this advisory.

Gaston has continued to turn leftward, with the latest estimated
motion now south of due west at 260/9 kt. A deep-layer
southwest-to-northeast oriented ridge is becoming established
northwest of Gaston, which should maintain the system on a
west-southwest heading for the next several days until the
closed-circulation opens up into a trough. The guidance took another
southward shift this cycle, and the NHC track forecast follows the
guidance in bending the track a bit more southward, following the
reliable consensus aids.

Gaston has lost its earlier baroclinic support that maintained
instability aiding last night's convective resurgence. The global
and regional hurricane models are in good agreement that Gaston will
fail to produce any additional convective bursts in an environment
of strong northerly vertical wind shear, 24-25 C SSTs, and
significant synoptic forcing for descent on the upwind side of a
upper-level trough. Gaston is now forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone in 12 hours, but this could occur as quickly as tonight if
convection does not return soon. The post-tropical low should
gradually fill thereafter, opening up into a trough by 60 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 39.1N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 38.6N 39.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 26/1800Z 38.0N 40.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/0600Z 37.4N 43.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1800Z 36.9N 46.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 252034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
900 PM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022

...GASTON WEAKENING AND SOON TO BE POST TROPICAL...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.1N 37.5W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 37.5 West. Gaston is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a general west to
west-southwestward motion is expected until dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days,
and Gaston is forecast to become a post-tropical tonight and
dissipate entirely later this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores though tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 252033
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
2100 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 37.5W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 150SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 37.5W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.2N 37.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 38.6N 39.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 38.0N 40.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 37.4N 43.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 36.9N 46.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N 37.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 251436
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022

The large convective burst that fired overnight and this morning
appears to have lead to Gaston's center reforming under the deep
convection further to the north and west. This also evident in
GOES-16 GLM lightning data that showed a clear arcing pattern
embedded in the convection prior to the new center becoming evident
on visible satellite imagery. Since then, the convection has been
rapidly decaying, as the storm loses instability support from a
sharp upper-level trough as it moves into its axis. Subjective and
objective Dvorak numbers this morning were still CI 3.0/45-kt from
TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT. While scatterometer data largely missed the
circulation earlier, it still showed tropical storm force winds
extending well to the northeast of the center. The initial intensity
is being maintained at 45 kt for this advisory.

Gaston, post reformation, has made its westward turn, with the
latest motion estimate at 270/10 kt. Gaston is currently situated
between an anomalously strong deep-layer ridge to its northeast, and
a more climatological ridge to its southwest. These features are
forecast to merge over the next 24-48 hours to the northwest of
Gaston, and should help steer the storm more to the west-southwest
for the remainder of its lifespan. The guidance this cycle is just a
bit further south and west compared to the previous cycle, and the
latest NHC track forecast was nudged in that direction, following
the consensus aids TVCN and HCCA.

Gaston might have had its last convective hurrah this morning, with
the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and HWRF suggesting the storm will struggle to
produce organized convection from here on out. This could be related
to the upper-level flow pattern, where the storm is moving out of an
environment favorable for ascent into an environment favorable for
descent, limiting convection, especially as it continues to traverse
24-25C SSTs. The latest forecast still shows Gaston becoming a
post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours, but if the convection does
not return before then, this evolution could occur sooner. The low
should persist another day or two before it opens up into a trough
in the subtropical Atlantic in about 72 hours, in agreement with the
majority of the global model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 39.4N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 39.2N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 38.7N 39.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 27/0000Z 38.0N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1200Z 37.4N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0000Z 36.8N 47.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 251434
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022

...GASTON MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 36.5W
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 36.5 West. Gaston is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the west-southwest is forecast by tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and Gaston is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 251433
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 36.5W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 120SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 36.5W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 35.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 39.2N 38.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 38.7N 39.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 38.0N 41.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 37.4N 44.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.8N 47.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 36.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 251148
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
1200 PM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022

...CENTER OF GASTON REFORMS FURTHER WEST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE AZORES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM GMT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.3N 35.8W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Azores Meteorological Service has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for the islands of Flores and Corvo in the western
Azores.

For additional storm information specific to your area, please
monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM GMT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston has
reformed near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 35.8 West. Gaston is
now moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn to
the west-southwest is forecast by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and
Gaston is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone tonight or on
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across the western Azores today. This
will result in storm total rainfall maxima up to 6 inches which may
result in landslides and areas of flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 250840
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
900 AM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022

Gaston continues to generate an area of deep convection near and to
the north of the center, as the interaction with the upper-level
trough mentioned in the previous advisory continues to provide a
favorable environment. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based
on the earlier scatterometer data and a satellite intensity
estimate of 45 kt from TAFB.

The global models suggest that the favorable trough interaction
should end in the next 12 h or so, and after that time Gaston
should experience strong northwesterly shear in a convergent
upper-level environment. This, combined with cool sea surface
temperatures of 24-25C and a dry airmass should cause the
convection to dissipate and Gaston to become post-tropical. The
new intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the previous
forecast, with the most significant change being keep the system as
a tropical cyclone at the 12 h point.

Gaston has moved a little to the right of the previous forecast
with the initial motion 285/9. A building low- to mid-level ridge
to the north and northwest of the cyclone should cause it to turn
westward later today and then west-southwestward, with that motion
continuing until the system dissipates. Since the last advisory,
the track guidance has shifted southward in the 24-72 h period.
So, the new forecast track is also shifted southward, with the new
track just to the north of the consensus models.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions over the western Azores should diminish
by midday as Gaston moves away from the islands.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western and
central Azores through midday. This rainfall may result in
landslides and areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 39.0N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 39.0N 36.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 38.7N 38.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 26/1800Z 38.1N 40.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z 37.5N 42.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1800Z 36.8N 45.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z 36.1N 48.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 250840
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
900 AM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022

...GASTON MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 34.5W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 34.5 West. Gaston is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected later today, and a turn to the
west-southwest is forecast by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and Gaston is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone tonight or on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western Azores for a few more hours. See products issued by the
meteorological service in the Azores for more information.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across the western Azores this
morning. This will result in storm total rainfall maxima up to 6
inches which may result in landslides and areas of flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 250839
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
0900 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 34.5W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 120SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 34.5W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 34.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 39.0N 36.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 38.7N 38.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 38.1N 40.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 37.5N 42.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 36.8N 45.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 36.1N 48.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 34.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 250531
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
600 AM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022

...GASTON STILL MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
AZORES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM GMT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.8N 33.9W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM GMT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 33.9 West. Gaston is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through today. A turn to the
west-southwest is forecast by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and
Gaston is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today or
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western Azores for a few more hours. See products issued by the
meteorological service in the Azores for more information.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across the western and central
Azores. This will result in storm total rainfall maxima up to 6
inches which may result in landslides and areas of flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 250231
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 AM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022

Gaston has been interacting with an upper-level trough just to its
west for the past several hours, which has helped to regenerate deep
convection over the northern semicircle. This has bought Gaston some
more time as a tropical cyclone. A pair of recent scatterometer
overpasses revealed a swath of 35-42 kt winds over the northern
semicircle of the tropical storm, which indicates that it is
stronger than previously estimated. Assuming some undersampling by
the scatterometer, the initial intensity has been adjusted to 45 kt
to reflect this new data.

The upper trough that is helping to maintain the deep convection is
forecast to lift northward later this morning and be replaced by a
ridge, which should induce strong northwesterly shear over Gaston.
The combination of this shear, relatively cool SSTs of about 24
degrees C, and the presence of dry air should cause Gaston's current
convection to dissipate today, resulting in the system becoming
post-tropical. The NHC intensity forecast was adjusted higher
through 24 h due to the adjusted initial intensity and is unchanged
from the previous forecast after that time.

Gaston continues its westward motion at 10 kt to the south of a
mid-level ridge. By Monday, the cyclone is forecast to turn
west-southwestward and possibly southwestward as the ridge builds
its northwest. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from
the previous one and closely follows the track consensus guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions over the western Azores should diminish
by midday as Gaston moves away from the islands.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western and
central Azores through midday. This rainfall may result in
landslides and areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 38.6N 33.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 38.9N 35.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 26/0000Z 38.7N 37.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 26/1200Z 38.4N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z 37.9N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1200Z 37.2N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z 36.8N 46.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 250231
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 33.4W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 120SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 33.4W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 32.8W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 38.9N 35.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 38.7N 37.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 38.4N 39.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 37.9N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 37.2N 44.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.8N 46.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 33.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 250231
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 AM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022

...GASTON CONTINUES WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
AZORES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 33.4W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 33.4 West. Gaston is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through today. A turn to the
west-southwest is forecast by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and Gaston is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone sometime today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western Azores through this morning. See products issued by the
meteorological service in the Azores for more information.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across the western and central
Azores. This will result in storm total rainfall maxima up to 6
inches which may result in landslides and areas of flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 242333
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
1200 AM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022

...GASTON EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE
WESTERN AZORES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM GMT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 32.8W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM GMT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 32.8 West. Gaston is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through today. A turn to the
west-southwest is forecast by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and
Gaston is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone sometime today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western Azores for the next several hours. See products issued by
the meteorological service in the Azores for more information.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores through this morning. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across the western and central
Azores. This will result in storm total rainfall maxima up to 6
inches which may result in landslides and areas of flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 242106 CCA
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 18...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022

Corrected Rainfall Statement In Key Messages

Gaston still lacks any deep convection near the center of its
circulation. There is a burst of convection, mentioned in the
previous advisory, that is now northwest of Faial island and over a
hundred miles from the center of the storm. The subjective and
objective Dvorak classifications have decreased to 30-40 kt.
Thus, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt to be a blend
of these estimates.

Strong vertical wind shear and dry environmental conditions
continue to weaken Gaston. These adverse atmospheric conditions
are not expected to improve for the remainder of the forecast
period, and the storm should gradually weaken. The official
forecast is slightly lower than the previous prediction due to the
decrease in initial intensity. Gaston is still expected to become
fully post-tropical within 12 hours. Global model simulated
satellite imagery, however, indicate a mid-latitude shortwave
trough interacting with post-tropical Gaston early Sunday morning
could develop isolated deep convection, but this should be a
short-lived event.

Gaston has made its turn to the west and is moving 280/10 kt. The
storm should continue to move generally westward for the next day
or so as it is steered by a building ridge to the north. The ridge
is then expected to turn the cyclone to the west-southwest and
southwest through the end of the forecast period. The model
guidance has shifted to the north this forecast cycle. The
official track forecast follows the northward guidance trend and
now lies on the south side of the guidance, though north of the
previous advisory.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions over the western Azores should
diminish overnight as Gaston moves away from the islands.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western and
central Azores through early Sunday. This rainfall may result in
landslides and areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 38.2N 31.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 38.6N 33.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 25/1800Z 38.6N 36.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0600Z 38.3N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1800Z 38.0N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0600Z 37.5N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1800Z 37.0N 45.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 242048
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022

Gaston still lacks any deep convection near the center of its
circulation. There is a burst of convection, mentioned in the
previous advisory, that is now northwest of Faial island and over a
hundred miles from the center of the storm. The subjective and
objective Dvorak classifications have decreased to 30-40 kt.
Thus, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt to be a blend
of these estimates.

Strong vertical wind shear and dry environmental conditions
continue to weaken Gaston. These adverse atmospheric conditions
are not expected to improve for the remainder of the forecast
period, and the storm should gradually weaken. The official
forecast is slightly lower than the previous prediction due to the
decrease in initial intensity. Gaston is still expected to become
fully post-tropical within 12 hours. Global model simulated
satellite imagery, however, indicate a mid-latitude shortwave
trough interacting with post-tropical Gaston early Sunday morning
could develop isolated deep convection, but this should be a
short-lived event.

Gaston has made its turn to the west and is moving 280/10 kt. The
storm should continue to move generally westward for the next day
or so as it is steered by a building ridge to the north. The ridge
is then expected to turn the cyclone to the west-southwest and
southwest through the end of the forecast period. The model
guidance has shifted to the north this forecast cycle. The
official track forecast follows the northward guidance trend and
now lies on the south side of the guidance, though north of the
previous advisory.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions over the western Azores should
diminish overnight as Gaston moves away from the islands.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western and
central Azores through early Saturday. This rainfall may result in
landslides and areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 38.2N 31.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 38.6N 33.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 25/1800Z 38.6N 36.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0600Z 38.3N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1800Z 38.0N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0600Z 37.5N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1800Z 37.0N 45.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 242048
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022

...GASTON CONTINUING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 31.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 38.2 North, longitude 31.8 West. Gaston is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A turn to the
southwest is forecast by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and Gaston is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone overnight or Sunday
morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western Azores for the next several hours. See products issued by
the meteorological service in the Azores for more information.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across the western and central
Azores. This will result in storm total rainfall maxima up to 6
inches which may result in landslides and areas of flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 242048
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
2100 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 31.8W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 120SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 31.8W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 31.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 38.6N 33.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 38.6N 36.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 38.3N 38.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 38.0N 39.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 37.5N 42.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 37.0N 45.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.2N 31.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 241805
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
605 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR THE CENTRAL AZORES...

The Azores Meteorological Service has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for the islands of Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa
and Terceira in the central Azores.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 241755
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
600 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022

...GASTON TURNS WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM GMT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.0N 31.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM GMT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 31.0 West. Gaston is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Sunday. A turn to the southwest is
forecast by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and
Gaston is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later this
evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western Azores for the next several hours. See products issued by
the meteorological service in the Azores for more information.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts of 3
inches across the western and central Azores. This will result in
storm total rainfall of 2 to 6 inches which may result in landslides
and areas of flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 241455
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022

Gaston has lost most of its deep convection and it is currently an
exposed low-level circulation. The closest relatively deep
convective activity is south of Pico Island over 100 miles away
from the center and likely terrain-induced. Though a recent
scatterometer pass missed the center of Gaston, it did show an area
of tropical-storm-force winds of around 35 kt to the east of the
center. Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40
kt, slightly higher than the satellite intensity estimates.

Hostile environmental conditions have weakened Gaston considerably.
The strong vertical wind shear and dry mid-level humidities are not
expected to improve for the remainder of the forecast period, and
additional weakening is likely. The official forecast is similar to
the previous prediction and still shows Gaston becoming fully
post-tropical within 12 hours. A couple of the global models,
however, indicate a mid-latitude shortwave trough/baroclinic zone
interacting with post-tropical Gaston early Sunday morning could
develop isolated deep convection, but this should be a short-lived
event.

The storm is moving west-southwestward at an estimated 245/8 kt. A
building mid-level ridge to the north is expected to steer Gaston
to the west through Monday morning, and to the west-southwest
until it dissipates near the end of the week. The NHC forecast
track is shifted slightly south of the previous advisory track,
likely due to the southern shift of the initial position.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions over the western and central Azores
today should diminish today as Gaston moves away from the islands.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western
and central Azores through Saturday. This rainfall may result in
landslides and areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 38.0N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 38.2N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 25/1200Z 38.4N 35.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 26/0000Z 38.2N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 26/1200Z 37.5N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0000Z 36.7N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1200Z 35.6N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1200Z 33.0N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 241455
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022

...GASTON MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.0N 30.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 30.8 West. Gaston is
moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward
the west is anticipated later today, followed by a turn to the
southwest by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and Gaston is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western and central Azores for the next several hours. See
products issued by the meteorological service in the Azores for
more information.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts of 3
inches across the western and central Azores. This will result in
storm total rainfall of 2 to 6 inches which may result in landslides
and areas of flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 241455
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES
* FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL
AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 30.8W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 120SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 30.8W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 30.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 38.2N 32.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 38.4N 35.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 38.2N 37.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 37.5N 39.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 36.7N 40.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 35.6N 43.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 33.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 30.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 241153
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
1200 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022

...GASTON EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM GMT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 30.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM GMT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 38.2 North, longitude 30.1 West, just west of
the central Azores. Gaston is moving toward the west-southwest near
7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west is anticipated later
today, followed by a turn to the southwest by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and
Gaston is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western and central Azores through today. See products issued by
the meteorological service in the Azores for more information.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores through today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the western and central
Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 240844
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
900 AM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022

Since yesterday, Gaston has been transitioning to an asymmetric
warm core post-tropical cyclone. A Friday morning 1227Z METOP-C
scatterometer data confirmed that the transition had begun by
depicting growing asymmetry in the wind field with a hundred-mile
increase in gale-force winds in the northwest quadrant. Subsequent
surface winds less than 60 miles from the center were 20 kt or
less, all characteristics of a post-tropical/extratropical cyclone
wind profile. The initial intensity is set at a generous 45 kt and
is above the various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates.

As a result of increasing deep-layer shear and decreasing sea
surface temperature beneath the cyclone, Gaston's organized deep
convection has diminished considerably. Only a few convective
fragments remain well displaced to the southeast of the surface
center. Accordingly, further weakening is expected, and Gaston
should complete its post-tropical transition later today. A couple
of the global models, however, indicate a mid-latitude shortwave
trough/baroclinic zone interacting with post-tropical Gaston early
Sunday morning, which could create a flare-up of deep convection,
but this should be a short-lived event.

Gaston's initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or
250/8 kt. Building high pressure over the northeast Atlantic
should continue to steer the post-tropical cyclone westward through
Monday morning, and west-southwestward until dissipation occurs
toward the end of the week. The official track forecast is a
little faster than the previous advisory and is nudged to the
south beyond 48 hours to agree more with the NOAA HFIP HCCA model.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions over the western and central Azores
today should diminish this evening as Gaston moves away from the
islands.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western
and central Azores through Saturday. This rainfall may result in
landslides and areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 38.6N 30.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 38.3N 31.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 25/0600Z 38.7N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 25/1800Z 38.7N 36.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 26/0600Z 38.1N 38.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 26/1800Z 37.4N 39.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 27/0600Z 36.6N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0600Z 33.9N 47.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 240844
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
900 AM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AZORES SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...
...GASTON EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 30.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 30.2 West, just west
of the central Azores. Gaston is moving toward the west-southwest
near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west is anticipated later
today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and Gaston is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western and central Azores through today. See products issued by
the meteorological service in the Azores for more information.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores through today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the western and central
Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 240844
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
0900 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES
* FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL
AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 30.2W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 30.2W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 29.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.3N 31.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 38.7N 34.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 38.7N 36.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 38.1N 38.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 37.4N 39.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 36.6N 41.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 33.9N 47.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 30.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 240552
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
600 AM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM GMT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.7N 29.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM GMT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 38.7 North, longitude 29.7 West. Gaston is
moving toward the southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to
the west is anticipated later today. On the forecast track, the
center of Gaston will move near or over portions of the Azores
through this morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few
days, and Gaston is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone
later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western and central Azores through today. See products issued by
the meteorological service in the Azores for more information.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores through today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produced total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts across
the western and central Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 240236
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 AM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022

Gaston continues to decline. Its associated deep convection has been
stripped away by strong northwesterly vertical wind shear, and the
cyclone now consists of a swirl of mainly low-level clouds with
embedded squalls. The initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt
based on the latest Dvorak CI value from TAFB.

The storm has made its anticipated turn to the southwest and is now
moving at 220/7 kt. A building ridge to the north of Gaston should
turn the cyclone westward later today, and this motion is expected
to continue until the system dissipates late in the forecast
period. The latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the
previous one. On this track, Gaston will move near or over the
central and western Azores today.

Dry air, relatively cool SSTs of 24-25 degrees C, and persistent
strong vertical wind shear should cause Gaston to struggle to
maintain persistent organized deep convection. Therefore, further
weakening is anticipated, and the cyclone is forecast to become
post-tropical by tonight, if not sooner. The latest NHC intensity
forecast was lowered slightly from the previous one and is close to
the various multi-model consensus intensities.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
western and central Azores today.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western and
central Azores today. This rainfall may result in landslides and
areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 38.9N 29.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 38.4N 30.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 38.5N 32.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 25/1200Z 38.7N 35.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 26/0000Z 38.7N 36.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 26/1200Z 38.6N 38.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 27/0000Z 38.3N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0000Z 37.4N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 240235
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 AM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022

...GASTON EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.9N 29.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WNW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 38.9 North, longitude 29.5 West. A turn to the
west is anticipated later today. On the forecast track, the center
of Gaston will move near or over portions of the Azores through this
morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days, and Gaston
could become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western and central Azores through today. See products issued by
the meteorological service in the Azores for more information.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores through today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produced total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts across
the western and central Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 240235
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
0300 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES
* FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL
AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 29.5W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 150SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 29.5W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 29.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.4N 30.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 38.5N 32.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 38.7N 35.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 38.7N 36.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 38.6N 38.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 38.3N 40.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 37.4N 44.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.9N 29.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 232349
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
1200 AM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022

...GASTON BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AZORES...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AZORES TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM GMT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.1N 29.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM GMT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 29.0 West. Gaston is
moving toward the south near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to the
southwest is forecast this morning, and a westward motion is
anticipated by this evening or Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Gaston will move near or over portions of the Azores
through this morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days, and Gaston
could become a post-tropical cyclone late on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A weather station at Horta on Faial Island
recently measured a wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western and central Azores through today. See products issued by
the meteorological service in the Azores for more information.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores through today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produced total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts across
the western and central Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 232101 CCA
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
2100 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022

CORRECTED 12 FT SEA RADII

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES
* FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL
AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 28.7W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 160SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 28.7W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 28.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 38.8N 29.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.5N 30.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 38.7N 33.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 38.9N 35.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 38.9N 37.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 38.9N 39.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 38.5N 43.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.6N 28.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 232042
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
900 PM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022

Convection has been sputtering in recent hours in the core of
Gaston. It appears the effects of strong vertical wind shear, dry
middle-level humidities and cool sea surface temperatures have
weakened the storm. Satellite Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and
SAB suggest the storm is now 45 kt while and earlier scatterometer
pass showed a decent area of 50-55 kt winds. The initial intensity
has been lowered to 50 kt to represent a blend of these estimates.

Gaston is moving southward at about 8 kt toward the central
Azores. A building mid-tropospheric ridge to the north is
expected to turn the storm towards the southwest early tomorrow.
The ridge will eventually steer Gaston westward in about a day
or so, and this motion is forecast to continue until the end of the
period. The official forecast track is very similar to the
previous advisory prediction except being slightly farther east in
the first 12 hours due to the present location and motion.

The tropical nature of Gaston seems to be winding down quickly.
Simulated satellite imagery from global models suggests the storm
will become fully post-tropical in about 36 hours. Statistical
model guidance insists that, despite strong to moderate vertical
wind shear and dry air, Gaston should only gradually weaken. The
NHC intensity forecast reflects this and is close the multi-model
consensus guidance and slightly lower than the previous forecast.
However, it is entirely possible Gaston could weaken more rapidly
than expected.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
western and central Azores.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western
and central Azores Friday into Saturday. This rainfall may
result in landslides and areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 39.6N 28.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 38.8N 29.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 38.5N 30.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 38.7N 33.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 25/1800Z 38.9N 35.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 26/0600Z 38.9N 37.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 26/1800Z 38.9N 39.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 27/1800Z 38.5N 43.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 232042
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
900 PM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022

...GASTON BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AZORES...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AZORES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.6N 28.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 39.6 North, longitude 28.7 West. Gaston is
moving toward the south near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to the
southwest is forecast by early Saturday, and a westward motion is
anticipated on Saturday evening or Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Gaston will move near or over portions of the Azores
through early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few
days, and Gaston could become a post-tropical cyclone late on
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western and central Azores through tonight and Saturday. See
products issued by the meteorological service in the Azores for more
information.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions
of the Azores through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produced total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts across
the western and central Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 232042
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
2100 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES
* FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL
AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 28.7W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 130SE 160SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 28.7W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 28.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 38.8N 29.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.5N 30.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 38.7N 33.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 38.9N 35.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 38.9N 37.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 38.9N 39.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 38.5N 43.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.6N 28.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 231749
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
600 PM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022

...GASTON MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AZORES...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM GMT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.8N 28.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM N OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM GMT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 39.8 North, longitude 28.5 West. Gaston is
moving toward the southeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower
south-southeastward and then southward motion is forecast this
evening, followed by a southwestward motion tonight and early
Saturday, and a westward motion on Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Gaston will move near or over portions of the Azores
through early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western and central Azores through tonight. See products issued by
the meteorological service in the Azores for more information.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions
of the Azores through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produced total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts across
the western and central Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 231457
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022

Gaston is improving in satellite presentation this morning.
Convection is re-forming and wrapping around the northern and
western sides of the circulation. A recent scatterometer pass
showed that Gaston was slightly stronger than the previous advisory
and the initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt. The
tropical-storm-force wind field was also expanded, especially in the
northwestern quadrant based on these data.

The cyclone has managed to retain its tropical characteristics for
now. Global model guidance suggests moderate to strong vertical
wind shear should gradually strip away convection from the core over
the next day or so. In spite of the relatively hostile conditions,
Gaston has managed to maintain its strength, therefore only gradual
weakening is forecast until the storm merges with a shortwave trough
in about 36 hours and becomes a post-tropical cyclone. The official
intensity forecast has been shifted slightly higher than the
previous advisory due to the initial intensity and is slightly
stronger than the consensus model aids.

The storm is moving east-southeastward at an estimated 120/6 kt. A
sharp turn to the south is expected shortly while Gaston traverses
the periphery of a mid-level ridge building to the north.
Afterward, the cyclone should generally move toward the
west-southwest and west, completing an anticyclone turn, through the
end of the period. The NHC forecast has been nudged slightly
northward once again from the previous forecast and lies between the
HCCA and TVCN multi-model consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
western Azores, and are spreading to the central Azores.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western
and central Azores today through Saturday. This rainfall may
result in landslides and areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 40.2N 29.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 39.4N 29.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 38.7N 30.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 38.7N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 25/1200Z 38.9N 34.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 26/0000Z 39.0N 36.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 26/1200Z 39.0N 38.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 27/1200Z 38.9N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 28/1200Z 37.7N 46.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 231454
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022

...GASTON STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AZORES...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES TODAY AND SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 29.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM N OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 29.1 West. Gaston is
moving toward the east-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower
south-southeastward and then southward motion is forecast today,
followed by a southwestward motion tonight and early Saturday, and a
westward motion on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Gaston will move near or over portions of the Azores today through
early Saturday.

Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual
weakening is expected over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western and central Azores through today. See products issued by
the meteorological service in the Azores for more information.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions
of the Azores through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produced total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts across
the western and central Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 231453
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES
* FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL
AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 29.1W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 130SE 160SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 29.1W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 29.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 39.4N 29.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.7N 30.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 38.7N 32.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 38.9N 34.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 39.0N 36.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 39.0N 38.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 38.9N 42.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 37.7N 46.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 29.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 231150
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
1200 PM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022

...GASTON MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AZORES...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES TODAY AND SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM GMT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.5N 29.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NNW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM GMT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 40.5 North, longitude 29.2 West. Gaston is
moving toward the east-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower
southeastward motion is forecast today followed by a southward, and
then southwestward, motion tonight and early Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Gaston will move near or over portions
of the Azores today through early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gaston can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western and central Azores through today. See products issued by
the meteorological service in the Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions
of the Azores through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produced total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts across
the western and central Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 230853
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
900 AM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022

Gaston's cloud pattern has changed considerably in appearance
since yesterday. A tropical cyclone axisymmetric wind
field that is typically concentrated about the surface center has
transformed to a more asymmetric pattern with considerable
expansion to the northeast due to the brisk mid-latitude
westerlies and the sub-25C cool oceanic surface temperatures.
Involvement between Gaston and a major shortwave trough/baroclinic
zone noted in water vapor imagery and a recent AMSR2 microwave pass
has resulted in a delta rain shield north of the exposed surface
circulation. A subsequent polar jet finger is visible in imagery
northeast of the center, with possible warm seclusion development.
All these attributes may well be leading to post-tropical cyclone
transition. The subjective satellite intensity estimates and a
recent UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis yield an initial intensity of 50 kt
for this advisory. Gaston is forecast to slowly weaken while the
cyclone completes its post-tropical transition in about 36 hours or
so. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one
and is in line with the IVCN intensity consensus model.

Gaston has begun its anticyclonic loop and is moving
east-southeastward, or 115/8 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn
toward the southeast today and southward along the southern
periphery of mid-tropospheric ridge building to the north through
Saturday morning while moving near the westernmost Azores.
Afterward, Gaston should generally move toward the west-southwest
and westward through the end of the period. The official forecast
is nudged slightly to the north of the previous one in the short
term, but closer after that, and is based on the various consensus
aids.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
western Azores, and will likely spread to the central Azores later
today.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western
and central Azores today through Saturday. This rainfall may
result in landslides and areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 40.5N 29.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 39.7N 28.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 38.6N 29.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 38.2N 31.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 25/0600Z 38.6N 33.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 25/1800Z 38.6N 36.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 26/0600Z 38.6N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 27/0600Z 39.1N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 28/0600Z 38.2N 45.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 230852
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
900 AM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022

...GASTON EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE WESTERNMOST AZORES
ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL AZORES TODAY
AND SATURDAY...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.5N 29.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NNW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 40.5 North, longitude 29.6 West. Gaston is
moving toward the east-southeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower
southeastward motion is forecast today followed by a southward, and
then southwestward, motion tonight and early Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Gaston will move near or over
portions of the Azores today through early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gaston can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western and central Azores through today. See products issued by
the meteorological service in the Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions
of the Azores through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produced total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts across
the western and central Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 230852
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
0900 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES
* FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL
AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 29.6W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 100SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 130SE 160SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 29.6W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 29.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 39.7N 28.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 38.6N 29.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.2N 31.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 38.6N 33.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 38.6N 36.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 38.6N 38.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 39.1N 41.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 38.2N 45.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.5N 29.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 230546
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
600 AM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE WESTERNMOST AZORES
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM GMT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.8N 29.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NNW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM GMT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 40.8 North, longitude 29.9 West. Gaston is
moving toward the east-southeast near 14 mph (23 km/h). A slower
southeastward motion is forecast later today followed by a
southward, and then southwestward, motion tonight and early
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Gaston will move
near or over portions of the Azores tonight through early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gaston can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western and central Azores through today. See products issued by
the meteorological service in the Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions
of the Azores through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts across
the western and central Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 230237
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 AM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022

Gaston's cloud pattern is showing signs of disruption by westerly
shear with the center located near the western edge of the main
area of convection. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer
overpass, which showed that the intensity was, somewhat
surprisingly, still near 55 kt. This intensity is also in
agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB, and so the
advisory's initial wind speed is held at that value.

The storm has continued to slow its forward speed, with the latest
initial motion estimated to be eastward at around 10 kt.
During the next day or so, Gaston is expected to move on a
clockwise loop along the southern side of a blocking mid-level
ridge. The official track forecast follows the multi-model
consensus prediction. This is fairly close to the previous NHC
forecast, except shifted a little northward in the latter part of
the period.

Gaston is expected to remain in an environment of dry air, over
relatively cool SSTs, and under the influence of strong westerly
shear for the next couple of days. These factors should lead to
gradual weakening and loss of tropical characteristics in 48 hours
or so. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one and is close to the latest Decay-SHIPS prediction.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
western Azores, and will likely spread to the central Azores later
today.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western and
central Azores today into Saturday. This rainfall may result in
landslides and areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 41.0N 31.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 40.4N 29.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 39.3N 29.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 38.7N 30.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 38.9N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 25/1200Z 39.4N 34.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 26/0000Z 39.8N 36.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 27/0000Z 40.9N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 28/0000Z 41.5N 39.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 230237
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 AM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.0N 31.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM NW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 41.0 North, longitude 31.0 West. Gaston is
moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower
southeastward motion is forecast later today followed by a
southward, and then southwestward, motion tonight and early
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Gaston will move
near or over portions of the Azores tonight through early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gaston can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western and central Azores through today. See products issued by
the meteorological service in the Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions
of the Azores through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts across
the western and central Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 230237
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
0300 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES
* FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL
AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 31.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 100SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 150SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 31.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 31.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 40.4N 29.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 39.3N 29.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.7N 30.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 38.9N 32.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 39.4N 34.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 39.8N 36.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 40.9N 38.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 41.5N 39.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N 31.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 222350
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
1200 AM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM GMT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.0N 31.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM GMT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 41.0 North, longitude 31.4 West. Gaston is
moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h). A slower
southeastward motion is forecast later today followed by a
southward, and then southwestward, motion tonight and early
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Gaston will move
near or over portions of the Azores tonight through early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h) was reported at
Flores in the western Azores.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gaston can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western and central Azores today. See products issued by the
meteorological service in the Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions
of the Azores through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts across the western
and central Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 222048
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Thu Sep 22 2022

Gaston is beginning to approach the Azores Islands. An observation
on Flores in the western Azores recently showed wind gusts to
tropical storm strength in an outer band of the storm. Satellite
images indicate that Gaston has been relatively steady in strength
through the day with deep convection persisting near the center and
strong outflow continuing in the northern semicircle. Since the
Dvorak estimates are unchanged, the initial intensity remains 55 kt
for this advisory.

The storm has slowed down slightly, with the latest initial motion
estimated to be east-northeastward at 15 kt. A turn to the east and
an additional reduction in forward speed are expected overnight,
followed by a clockwise loop near or over the central and western
Azores on Friday and Saturday as the storm moves on the south side
of a building ridge. The models have trended northward at days 4
and 5, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that
direction for those time periods.

Despite moderate to strong shear, relatively dry air, and cool
SSTs, Gaston has been maintaining its strength. Given that these
conditions are only expected to gradually worsen for the system, a
slow weakening trend seems likely. The models all show a similar
theme, and the NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope. Gaston is expected to become post-tropical on
Saturday when it merges with an approaching shortwave trough.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later tonight in
the western Azores and will likely spread to the central Azores on
Friday.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western
and central Azores beginning tonight and continuing into Saturday.
This rainfall may result in landslides and areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 41.1N 32.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 40.9N 30.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 40.1N 29.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 39.2N 29.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 38.8N 30.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 25/0600Z 39.1N 33.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 25/1800Z 39.3N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 26/1800Z 39.3N 37.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 27/1800Z 40.5N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Churchill/Hamrick

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 222047
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Thu Sep 22 2022

...GASTON APPROACHING THE WESTERN AZORES ISLANDS..
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.1N 32.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM NW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 41.1 North, longitude 32.0 West. Gaston is
moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn to
the east is expected later tonight, and a slower southeastward or
southward motion is forecast by early Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Gaston will move near or over portions of the
Azores tonight through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently
reported at an observing site in Flores in the western Azores.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gaston can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western Azores beginning later tonight and will spread to the
central Azores on Friday. See products issued by the meteorological
service in the Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions
of the Azores through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts across the western
and central Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Churchill/Hamrick

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 222045
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC THU SEP 22 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES
* FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL
AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.1N 32.0W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 100SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.1N 32.0W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.1N 32.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 40.9N 30.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 40.1N 29.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 39.2N 29.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.8N 30.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 39.1N 33.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 39.3N 35.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 39.3N 37.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 40.5N 40.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.1N 32.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/CHURCHILL/HAMRICK

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 221737
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 PM GMT Thu Sep 22 2022

...GASTON APPROACHING THE WESTERN AZORES ISLANDS..
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM GMT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.1N 33.0W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM NW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM GMT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 41.1 North, longitude 33.0 West. Gaston is
moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn to
the east is expected tonight, and a slower southeastward or
southward motion is forecast by early Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Gaston will move near or over portions of the
Azores tonight through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gaston can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western Azores beginning tonight and will spread to the central
Azores on Friday. See products issued by the meteorological service
in the Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions
of the Azores through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts across the western
and central Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 221445
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 22 2022

Gaston has been relatively steady in strength during the past
several hours. Recent visible and microwave images indicate that
the storm has a fairly well-defined inner core. However, an SSMI
overpass shows that the system is tilted in the vertical due to
west-southwesterly shear. The 12Z Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB were unchanged, and the initial intensity remains 55 kt at the
high end of the classifications. An ASCAT-B pass showed peak winds
of around 45 kt in the southeastern quadrant and given the low bias
of the instrument for these cases, this data also supports the
55-kt initial wind speed. The 34-kt wind radii has been expanded
outward based on the scatterometer data.

The storm is still moving east-northeastward at 18 kt on the
northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. A turn to the east
and a reduction in forward speed are expected tonight, followed by a
clockwise loop near or over the central and western Azores on Friday
and Saturday as the storm moves on the south side of another ridge.
The models have generally changed little this cycle, and the NHC
track forecast is very similar to the previous one.

Despite moderate to strong shear, relatively dry air, and cool
SSTs, Gaston has been maintaining its strength. Given that these
conditions are only expected to gradually worsen for the system, a
slow weakening trend seems likely. The models all show a similar
theme, and the NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope. Gaston is expected to become post-tropical in a
couple of days when it merges with an approaching shortwave trough.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin tonight in the
western Azores and will likely spread to the central Azores on
Friday.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western
and central Azores beginning tonight and continuing into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 40.9N 33.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 41.2N 31.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 40.7N 29.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 39.6N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 38.9N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 25/0000Z 38.9N 31.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 25/1200Z 39.1N 33.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 26/1200Z 38.3N 37.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 27/1200Z 37.2N 40.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Weiss/Taylor

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 221445
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 22 2022

...GASTON MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
AZORES TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.9N 33.8W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM WNW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 40.9 North, longitude 33.8 West. Gaston is
moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn to
the east is expected by tonight, and a slower southeast or
southward motion is forecast by early Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Gaston will move near or over portions of the
Azores tonight through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gaston can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western Azores beginning tonight and will spread to the central
Azores on Friday. See products issued by the meteorological service
in the Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect the Azores
beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts across the western
and central Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Weiss/Taylor

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 221444
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC THU SEP 22 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES
* FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL
AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 33.8W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 100SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 150SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 33.8W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 34.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.2N 31.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 40.7N 29.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 39.6N 29.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.9N 30.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 38.9N 31.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 39.1N 33.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 38.3N 37.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 37.2N 40.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.9N 33.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/WEISS/TAYLOR

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 221135
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1200 PM GMT Thu Sep 22 2022

...GASTON HEADING TOWARD THE WESTERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM GMT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.7N 34.5W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM WNW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM GMT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 34.5 West. Gaston is
moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn to
the east is expected by tonight, and a slower southeastern or
southward motion is forecast by early Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Gaston will move near or over portions of the
Azores on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western Azores beginning tonight. See products issued by the
meteorological service in the Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect the Azores
beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 220842
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
900 AM GMT Thu Sep 22 2022

GOES-16 Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a recent GMI
microwave pass showed that Gaston had maintained a deep convective
inner core during the past several hours. Subsequently, a
primary curved band with -66C cloud tops has developed in the
western semicircle. A compromise of the subjective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, along with a UW-CIMSS AiDT
estimated, yields an initial intensity of 55 kt for this advisory.

Although the intensity guidance agrees that Gaston will commence a
slow weakening trend soon, predicting when Gaston will become a
post-tropical cyclone or if it transitions into an extratropical low
is problematic. The GFS and ECMWF-SHIPS statistical diagnostics
indicate that Gaston will complete extratropical transition in just
6 hours, which appears unrealistic. On the other hand, the FSU
Cyclone phase forecast for the GFS and UKMET suggest that the system
will maintain a symmetric lower-tropospheric warm core while moving
south of the upper westerlies on Friday. The latter scenario seems
more reasonable since Gaston is sustaining inner core convection and
the wind flow aloft becomes a bit more diffluent as it approaches
the Azores Islands. Afterwards, the global simulated IR forecasts
show Gaston becoming a post-tropical cyclone (loss of tropical cloud
pattern characteristics) in 48 hours due to sub-24C SSTs, an
increasing stable/dry surrounding atmosphere, and strong northerly
shear. The NHC forecast is based on the above mentioned global
model guidance and shows Gaston becoming a post-tropical cyclone on
Saturday.

Gaston's initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or
070/15 kt. The are no significant changes to the previous track
forecast or synoptic reasoning. Gaston is expected to move
east-northeastward to eastward through Friday morning.
Afterward, the Azores high is predicted to strengthen and cause
Gaston to gradually turn southward. Beyond 48 hours, the
global and hurricane models indicate that the cyclone will turn
toward the west-southwest to west in response to the aforementioned
high-pressure building to the north and northeast of the system.
The NHC forecast is based on this scenario and lies between the TVCA
and HCCA consensus models.

Because the latest forecast track of Gaston brings the cyclone near
or over the western and central Azores islands before becoming
post-tropical, The Azores Meteorological Service has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for their western and central island chains.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 40.3N 35.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 40.9N 32.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 40.7N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 39.8N 28.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 38.9N 29.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 24/1800Z 38.5N 30.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 25/0600Z 38.6N 32.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 26/0600Z 38.2N 35.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 27/0600Z 37.1N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 220840
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
0900 UTC THU SEP 22 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE AZORES METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES...
AND THE ISLANDS OF FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...AND
TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL AZORES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES
* FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL
AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 35.4W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 25SE 25SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 150SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 35.4W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 36.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.9N 32.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 40.7N 30.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 39.8N 28.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 38.9N 29.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.5N 30.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 38.6N 32.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 38.2N 35.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 37.1N 39.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.3N 35.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 220840
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
900 AM GMT Thu Sep 22 2022

...GASTON HEADING TOWARD THE WESTERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.3N 35.4W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM WNW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Azores Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the islands of Flores and Corvo in the western Azores,
and the islands of Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in
the central Azores.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 40.3 North, longitude 35.4 West. Gaston is
moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn to
the east is expected by tonight, and a slower southeastern or
southward motion is forecast by early Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Gaston will move near or over portions of the
Azores on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western Azores beginning tonight. See products issued by the
meteorological service in the Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect the Azores
beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 220237
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 AM GMT Thu Sep 22 2022

Convective bursts continue near the center of Gaston with some
banding evident over the western portions of the circulation. Dvorak
CI-numbers from SAB and TAFB still support an initial intensity of
55 kt. Unfortunately, ASCAT missed the system earlier, and there
has been no recent scatterometer data to provide a better assessment
of the system's strength and wind field.

Gaston as turned east-northeastward and is not moving at 065/15 kt.
The overall track forecast reasoning remains unchanged but there
has been a shift in the models toward a faster and more southerly
track, primarily after 48 hours. The cyclone should continue
east-northeastward to eastward during the next day or so. After
that time, an amplifying ridge is expected to cause Gaston to slow
down and turn southward. After 48 hours, the track guidance now
shows a faster southwestward or westward motion as the ridge builds
and shifts northeastward. The updated NHC track has been adjusted
accordingly, but it is still north of the latest consensus aids.
Therefore, additional modifications to the official forecast is
possible in future advisories.

Little change in strength is predicted in the short term, but
gradual weakening is expected after that time as Gaston moves over
cooler waters and into a drier air mass. Gaston is likely to become
a post-tropical cyclone in 60-72 hours due to these more
unfavorable conditions.

Gaston could produce tropical-storm-force winds in portions of the
western Azores beginning tonight. Interests there should continue
to monitor the forecasts for this system. For additional
information, see warnings and products issued by the meteorological
service in the Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 39.6N 38.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 40.4N 35.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 40.8N 31.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 40.3N 29.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 39.4N 29.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 38.9N 30.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 25/0000Z 38.8N 31.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 26/0000Z 39.0N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 27/0000Z 38.7N 38.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 220236
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 AM GMT Thu Sep 22 2022

...GASTON MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.6N 38.0W
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of the system.
See gale warnings and products issued by the meteorological
service in the Azores for more information.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 39.6 North, longitude 38.0 West. Gaston is
moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn to
the east is expected later today, and a slower southeastern
or southward motion is forecast by Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are possible in portions of the
western Azores beginning tonight. See products issued by the
meteorological service in the Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect the Azores
beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 220234
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
0300 UTC THU SEP 22 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.
SEE GALE WARNINGS AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE IN THE AZORES FOR MORE INFORMATION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 38.0W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 25SE 25SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 150SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 38.0W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 38.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.4N 35.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 40.8N 31.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 40.3N 29.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 39.4N 29.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.9N 30.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 38.8N 31.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 39.0N 35.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 38.7N 38.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.6N 38.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 212031
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Wed Sep 21 2022

There has been little change associated with Gaston during the past
several hours. The system continues to produce an area of deep
convection near the center and exhibits well-defined outflow over
the western semicircle. However, drier air is entraining into
the eastern portion of the circulation. The Dvorak CI-numbers from
TAFB and SAB continue to support an initial intensity of 55 kt.

Gaston continues to track northeastward over the north-central
Atlantic, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 045/12 kt.
Although there is no significant change to the forecast reasoning,
there is a considerable amount of model spread in the details of the
future steering pattern. An amplifying ridge associated with Fiona
is expected to trap Gaston's circulation late this week and this
weekend. This could result in a clockwise loop and an eventual
turn westward. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the south
and faster than the previous one, trending toward the latest
consensus models.

It appears that the opportunity for strengthening has ended. A slow
weakening trend should begin in the next day or so when Gaston moves
over cooler waters and into a region of drier air and slightly
stronger westerly vertical wind shear. An approaching mid-level
trough should aid in the system's transition to an extratropical
cyclone in a couple of days or so. The NHC intensity forecast
remains near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Interests in the Azores should continue to monitor the forecast for
Gaston. For additional information, see warnings and products
issued by the meteorological service in the Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 39.0N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 40.0N 37.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 40.8N 33.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 40.9N 31.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 40.4N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 39.8N 30.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z 39.6N 31.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/1800Z 40.3N 34.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/1800Z 41.0N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Wegman/Carbin

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 212030
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Wed Sep 21 2022

...GASTON CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 40.0W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of the system.
See gale warnings and products issued by the meteorological
service in the Azores for more information.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 40.0 West. Gaston is
moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn to the
the east is expected on Thursday, and Gaston is expected to stall
near the western Azores late this week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Winds to gale force are possible in the western Azores later
this week. See gale warnings and products issued by the
meteorological service in the Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect the Azores
later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Carbin/Wegman

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 212030
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC WED SEP 21 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.
SEE GALE WARNINGS AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE IN THE AZORES FOR MORE INFORMATION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 40.0W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 25SE 25SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 40.0W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 40.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 40.0N 37.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.8N 33.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 40.9N 31.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 40.4N 30.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 39.8N 30.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 39.6N 31.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 40.3N 34.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 41.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 40.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/CARBIN/WEGMAN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 211437
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM GMT Wed Sep 21 2022

Satellite images indicate that Gaston continues to produce
convection that has become increasingly symmetric around the center.
In addition, there is a broken band of thunderstorms on the eastern
side of the system. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB
were both 3.5/55 kt. A recent ASCAT-B pass indicate that Gaston has
a relatively symmetric wind field with maximum winds in the 45-50 kt
range. Based on this data, the initial intensity remains 55 kt for
this advisory. It is worth mentioning that satellite data indicate
that Gaston is not purely tropical and is likely a hybrid system
gaining energy from baroclinic sources.

Gaston continues to track northeastward over the north-central
Atlantic, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 035/14 kt.
Although there is no significant change to the forecast reasoning,
there is a modest amount of model spread in the details of the
future steering pattern. The NHC track is faster and a tad south of
the previous forecast, trending toward the latest consensus models.
Gaston is expected to turn to the east in a day or so when it moves
on the northern side of a subtropical ridge and then will likely
slow down considerably or completely stall near or just west of the
western Azores late this week. If the storm survives, a turn to the
north or northwest could occur over the weekend.

The storm could strengthen a little today given recent trends in
its convective development near and around the center. However,
weakening should begin on Thursday when Gaston moves over cooler
waters and into a region of drier air and slightly stronger
westerly vertical wind shear. An approaching mid-level trough
should aid in the system's transition to an extratropical cyclone
in a couple of days or so. The NHC intensity forecast lies near
the middle of the guidance envelope.

Interests in the Azores should continue to monitor the forecast for
Gaston. For additional information, see warnings and products
issued by the meteorological service in the Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 38.3N 41.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 39.5N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 40.6N 35.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 40.9N 32.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 40.8N 30.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 40.5N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1200Z 40.0N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/1200Z 41.2N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/1200Z 42.5N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kong/Gallina

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 211436
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM GMT Wed Sep 21 2022

...GASTON MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 41.3W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of the system.
See gale warnings and products issued by the meteorological
service in the Azores for more information.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 41.3 West. Gaston is
moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn to the
the east is expected on Thursday, and Gaston is expected to stall
near the western Azores late this week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, but
gradual weakening should begin on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Winds to gale force are possible in the western Azores later
this week. See gale warnings and products issued by the
meteorological service in the Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect the Azores
later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kong/Gallina

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 211435
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC WED SEP 21 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.
SEE GALE WARNINGS AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE IN THE AZORES FOR MORE INFORMATION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 41.3W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 41.3W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 42.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 39.5N 39.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.6N 35.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 40.9N 32.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 40.8N 30.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 40.5N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 40.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 41.2N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 42.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N 41.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/KONG/GALLINA

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 211008
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
0900 UTC WED SEP 21 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 42.6W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 42.6W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 43.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 38.8N 40.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 40.1N 37.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.8N 34.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 40.9N 32.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 40.8N 31.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 41.3N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 42.6N 33.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 44.3N 35.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N 42.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 210856
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
900 AM GMT Wed Sep 21 2022

Gaston has continued to improve on satellite imagery overnight.
Curved bands can be seen rotating fully around the southwestern
side
of the tropical cyclone with a warm spot occasionally apparent near
where the center is. I was somewhat skeptical that this structure
was indicative of a formative inner core, but a helpful GMI
microwave pass at 0407 UTC revealed this was no illusion, with a
nearly closed ring of convection on both 89 and 37 GHz channels.
Subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB were T3.0/45-kt and
TAFB T3.5/55-kt. Given the improvement in structure tonight, the
winds have been increased to 55-kt this advisory.

Gaston continues to move to the north-northeast at 025/16 kt. A
turn
north northeastward is expected later today followed by a more
eastward motion by Thursday. By the latter part of this week,
Gaston
is forecast to come to near screeching halt to the west of the
Azores in weak steering currents as a mid-level ridge builds
northward, related to Fiona's downstream diabatic induced ridging.
A
turn to the northwest or north is expected over the weekend as
Gaston moves in the steering flow between Hurricane Fiona to the
west and the building mid-level ridge to the east. The latest NHC
track forecast has changed little and lies very close to the
previous advisory track.

Based on the current structure, Gaston might be able to intensify a
bit more today. However as Gaston slows down the westerly
upper-level flow the storm is embedded will likely cause the
structure to deteriorate, with both the GFS and ECMWF simulated
satellite imagery suggesting the convection could de-couple from
the storm in about 48-60 hours. Thus, the latest forecast shows
weakening during this time period, and Gaston could become a
post-tropical extratropical cyclone as soon as 72 hours. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is a bit higher, owing to the initial
intensity, but remains fairly close to the previous forecast after
60 hours.

Interests in the Azores should continue to monitor the forecast for
Gaston.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 37.5N 42.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 38.8N 40.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 40.1N 37.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 40.8N 34.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 40.9N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 40.8N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 41.3N 31.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/0600Z 42.6N 33.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/0600Z 44.3N 35.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 210855
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
900 AM GMT Wed Sep 21 2022

...GASTON STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 42.6W
ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of the system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 42.6 West. Gaston is
moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn to the
northeast is expected today, followed by a motion toward the east
starting Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strength is possible today
followed by gradual weakening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect the Azores
later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 210850
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
0900 UTC WED SEP 21 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 42.6W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 42.6W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 43.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 38.8N 40.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 40.1N 37.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.8N 34.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 40.9N 32.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 40.8N 31.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 41.3N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 42.6N 33.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 44.3N 35.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N 42.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 210257
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 AM GMT Wed Sep 21 2022

The satellite presentation of Gaston has improved slightly since
the previous advisory, with deep convection persisting over the
low-level circulation center. The latest current intensity
estimates reflect what has been seen in the satellite imagery, with
TAFB and SAB coming in at 45 knots, while the ADT and AiDT values
from UW-CIMSS showing 35 knots and 46 knots respectively. Based on
a blend of these data along with the improved satellite appearance,
the initial intensity has been raised to 45 knots.

Gaston continues on a path toward the north-northeast,
with the initial motion estimated to be 020/16 kt. A turn to
northeast is expected today, followed by a turn to the east by
Thursday as the tropical storm moves along the the northern
periphery of a subtropical ridge. By late this week, Gaston is
expected to stall to the west of the Azores in weak steering
currents as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of cyclone. A turn
to the northwest or north is expected over the weekend as Gaston
moves in the steering flow between Hurricane Fiona to the west and
the building mid-level ridge to the east. The latest NHC track
forecast has changed little and lies very close to the previous
advisory track, and closely follows the consensus track guidance.

The period for additional intensification is quickly closing, as
Gaston is moving over the 26C isotherm, and will move over
progressively cooler water through the remainder of the forecast
period. Additionally, the impact of the vertical wind shear will
increase in a couple days as the tropical cyclone stalls out while
westerly shear holds in the 25 to 30 knot range. As a result, the
intensity forecast calls for slight strengthening today, followed by
little change in strength for another day or so after that. The
combination of cool SSTs, dry mid-level air, and increasing vertical
wind shear should then lead to slow weakening through the remainder
of the week. The latest NHC was adjusted upward through the first 24
hours to account for the strengthening which has already occurred,
with only minor adjustments made through the remainder of the
forecast period, closely following the consensus intensity aids.

Interests in the Azores should continue to monitor the forecast for
Gaston.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 36.2N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 37.8N 41.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 39.3N 39.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 40.2N 36.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 40.4N 32.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 40.4N 31.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 40.4N 31.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/0000Z 41.5N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/0000Z 43.5N 35.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 210253
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 AM GMT Wed Sep 21 2022

...GASTON STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 43.6W
ABOUT 920 MI...1485 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of the system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 43.6 West. Gaston is
moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). A
turn to the northeast is expected today, followed by a
motion toward the east starting Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Slight additional strengthening is forecast today,
followed by little change in strength over the next couple days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect the Azores
later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 210252
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
0300 UTC WED SEP 21 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 43.6W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 43.6W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 44.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 37.8N 41.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 39.3N 39.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.2N 36.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 40.4N 32.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 40.4N 31.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 40.4N 31.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 41.5N 33.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 43.5N 35.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N 43.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY/JELSEMA

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 202040
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Tue Sep 20 2022

Satellite images indicate that deep convection is persisting near
and to the north of the center of the cyclone during the past
several hours. Drifting buoy 44857 recently reported a minimum
pressure of 1009 mb near the center of the low, which is a 8 mb
decrease from earlier today. An ASCAT-C pass from several hours ago
showed maximum winds of about 35 kt in the northeast and northwest
quadrants. Based on that data, the initial intensity is increased
to 35 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Gaston.

Gaston has turned north-northeastward and is moving a little faster
than before. The initial motion estimate is 020/15 kt. A turn to
the east is expected in a couple of days when the tropical storm
moves along the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge. By the
end of the week, however, Gaston is expected to stall to the west of
the Azores in weak steering currents as high pressure builds near
and to the north of the cyclone. After that time, a turn to the
northwest or north is expected as Gaston moves in the flow between
Hurricane Fiona and the ridge. The models have trended a little
faster this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted
accordingly.

Gaston is currently moving over relatively warm water, in a region
of upper-level diffluence within a somewhat favorable moist
environment. These factors should allow the system to strengthen
slowly during the next day or two. However, after that time,
much cooler SSTs, drier air, and an increase in westerly shear
should end the strengthening trend. The system is expected to
become extratropical on Saturday when it moves over SSTs just
above 20C and merges with a mid- to upper-level trough. The NHC
intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one and near
the middle of the guidance envelope.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the forecast for Gaston.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 34.7N 44.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 36.5N 43.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 38.3N 40.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 39.4N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 40.1N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 40.3N 33.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 40.4N 32.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 41.0N 32.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/1800Z 44.0N 35.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kebede

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 202040
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 44.4W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 44.4W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 44.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 36.5N 43.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 38.3N 40.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.4N 38.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.1N 35.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 40.3N 33.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 40.4N 32.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 41.0N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 44.0N 35.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 44.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/KEBEDE

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 202040
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Tue Sep 20 2022

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GASTON...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 44.4W
ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of the system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 44.4 West. Gaston is
moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A
turn to the northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a
motion to the east.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect the Azores
later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kebede

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 201434
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 20 2022

Geostationary and microwave satellite data indicate that the system
that NHC has been monitoring over the central Atlantic has developed
a well-defined center and organized deep convection, and now meets
the definition of a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is
estimated to be 30 kt based on a partial ASCAT pass that showed peak
winds in the 25-30 kt range. The low-level center is estimated to
be on the southern side of the main area of deep convection.

The depression is currently moving northward at 9 kt on the western
side of a subtropical ridge. A faster motion to the northeast is
expected on Wednesday when the system reaches the northwestern
periphery of the ridge, followed by a turn to the east. By the end
of the week, however, the depression is expected to stall in weak
steering currents as high pressure builds near and to the north of
the cyclone. Over the weekend, the depression is expected to turn
northwestward and increase its forward speed as Fiona tracks well to
the west of this system. The models are in fair agreement, but
there is some cross-track spread by the end of the period with the
GFS showing the fastest solution and ECMWF the slowest. The NHC
track forecast lies close to the various consensus models.

The depression is currently over relatively warm water, in a region
of upper-level diffluence within a somewhat favorable moist
environment. These factors should allow the system to strengthen
slowly during the next couple of days. However, after that time,
much cooler SSTs, drier air, and an increase in westerly shear
should end the strengthening trend. The system is expected to
become extratropical over the weekend when it moves over SSTs just
above 20C. The NHC intensity forecast lies a little lower than
HCCA and IVCN consensus models.

Interests in the Azores should monitor forecasts of the depression.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 32.8N 45.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 34.6N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 36.7N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 38.2N 40.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 39.2N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 39.7N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 39.8N 33.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 40.1N 33.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 42.4N 36.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Pereira/Montgomery

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 201434
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 45.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 45.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 46.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.6N 45.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 36.7N 43.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 38.2N 40.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.2N 37.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 39.7N 35.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 39.8N 33.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 40.1N 33.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 42.4N 36.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 45.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PEREIRA/MONTGOMERY

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 201434
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 20 2022

...EIGHTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 45.7W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of the system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 45.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
turn to the northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a
motion to the east.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect
the Azores later this week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Pereira/Montgomery

>