Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MADELINE-22
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 202040
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Madeline Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Madeline has lacked organized deep convection for about 16 hours and
it is unlikely to redevelop any in the future. Therefore, the
system has become a post-tropical remnant low and this will be the
final NHC advisory on Madeline. A recent scatterometer overpass
supports maintaining the initial intensity at 30 kt for this
advisory. The remnant low should gradually spin down over the next
few days and is expected to open up into a trough by the end of the
forecast period.

The depression is moving just north of west at 280/5 kt. This
general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the
west-southwest moving with the low-level steering flow. The NHC
track forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus aids.

This is the final NHC advisory for Madeline. For additional
information on the remnant, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO
header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 21.3N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 21/0600Z 21.4N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/1800Z 21.6N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0600Z 21.6N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1800Z 21.4N 117.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0600Z 21.2N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1800Z 21.0N 121.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1800Z 20.6N 124.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1800Z 20.2N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Jelsema


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 202040
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Madeline Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...MADELINE DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 112.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Madeline was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 112.5 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn
west-southwestward later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast, and the remnant low is likely to
dissipate by the end the week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect the southern Baja
California peninsula through this evening. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Jelsema


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 202040
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022
2100 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 112.5W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 112.5W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.6N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.4N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.2N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.0N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 20.6N 124.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 20.2N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 112.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/JELSEMA



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 201443
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Madeline Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Madeline is close to becoming a post-tropical cyclone, having
produced little deep convection overnight. Satellite intensity
estimates continue to decrease and, based on these and the earlier
scatterometer data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30
kt. The storm is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in
12 hours or less due to persistent shear, dry air and cool waters.
It is possible Madeline will produce occasional short-lived bursts
of convection after it moves away from the cooler ocean waters
stirred up by Kay. However, model guidance suggests this
convective activity will not be enough to redevelop Madeline as a
tropical system. The remnant low is expected to open up into a
trough by the end of the forecast period.

Madeline is moving west at 7 kt. This general motion is expected
to continue with a gradual turn to the west-southwest in the
low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is slightly south of the
previous advisory and close to the multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 21.2N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 21.4N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/1200Z 21.4N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0000Z 21.4N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1200Z 21.3N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0000Z 21.2N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z 21.0N 120.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1200Z 20.8N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1200Z 20.8N 127.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 201442
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Madeline Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...MADELINE FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOON...
...ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 112.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Madeline
was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 112.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn
west-southwestward later this week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Madeline
is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by this evening.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect the southern Baja
California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 201442
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022
1500 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 112.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 112.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 111.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.4N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.4N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.4N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.3N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.2N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.0N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.8N 124.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 20.8N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 112.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 200849
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Since the last advisory, Madeline's structure has gone downhill in a
hurry. The convection that existed earlier today has largely sheared
away to the west and dissipated, revealing a well-defined low-level
swirl that is easy to find on nighttime proxy-vis GOES-17 satellite
imagery. It appears the increase in easterly shear, in combination
with the tropical cyclone crossing the 26 C sea-surface temperature
(SST) isotherm, has led to this structural collapse. Subjective
Dvorak T-numbers were falling as fast as the constraints would
allow, but based on the rapid deterioration in the structure, in
addition to some west edge scatterometer wind data indicating only
29-31 kt winds just 50 n mi west-southwest of the center, the
initial intensity is being reduced to 35 kt this advisory.

Madeline has nearly completed its turn to the west, with the motion
now estimated at 280/7 kt. This motion should continue with an
additional gentle bend leftward as the storm becomes increasingly
shallow and steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is
a touch south of the prior one, in good agreement with the
multi-model consensus aids.

Madeline's track overnight has put it over anomalously cold SSTs
that are a leftover from Hurricane Kay that traversed this area more
than a week ago. With the overnight evaporation of deep organized
convection, the clock is now ticking on Madeline's remaining
lifespan as a tropical cyclone. The latest NHC forecast now shows
the cyclone becoming a post-tropical remnant low in just 24 hours.
There is one caveat to this forecast. Along Madeline's track, SSTs
do start to increase again in 36 hours, and simulated satellite
imagery from both the GFS and ECMWF suggest some brief puffs of deep
convection could occur in the day 2-3 period. However, this forecast
will assume that these convective bursts will not be organized
enough to allow the system to regenerate. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is lower than the previous one, but largely follows the
HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 21.2N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 21.3N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 21.5N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/1800Z 21.6N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0600Z 21.5N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1800Z 21.4N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0600Z 21.3N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0600Z 21.0N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0600Z 20.8N 126.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 200846
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Madeline Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...MADELINE WEAKENING QUICKLY AS IT BENDS MORE WESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 111.3W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 111.3 West. Madeline is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with a gradual turn west-southwestward later
this week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Madeline
is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low in about 24
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect the southern Baja
California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 200845
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022
0900 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 111.3W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 111.3W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 111.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.3N 112.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.5N 113.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.6N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.5N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.4N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.3N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 21.0N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 20.8N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 111.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 200243
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022

Madeline is on a gradual decline. The deep convection that is
confined to the west of the cyclone's low-level center is slowly
decaying in the presence of 20 kt of east-northeasterly shear and
marginal SSTs of 26 degrees C. The latest Dvorak T-numbers from
TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT have decreased from 6 h ago, and a
blend of their CI values suggest that the initial intensity has
decreased to 45 kt.

Madeline continues to move west-northwestward, or 285/7 kt. An
ongoing west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day
or so while the storm remains steered by a deep-layer ridge
centered over southern Texas. After that time, a turn to the west
is expected when the system becomes shallow and moves within the
low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is little changed
from the previous one and is near the various multi-model consensus
tracks.

The east-northeasterly shear is expected to persist while Madeline
moves into a region of drier air and over cooler SSTs. Therefore
steady weakening is expected, and the cyclone is expected to
degenerate into post-tropical remnant low, devoid of persistent
organized deep convection, by early Wednesday. The latest NHC
intensity forecast was nudged slightly lower through 48 h due to the
decrease in the initial intensity, but remains slightly higher than
the HCCA and IVCN consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 21.0N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 21.1N 111.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 21.4N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 21.7N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z 21.7N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1200Z 21.7N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0000Z 21.6N 118.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z 21.3N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0000Z 21.1N 124.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 200241
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Madeline Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022

...MADELINE HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST...
...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED IN EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 110.8W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 110.8 West. Madeline is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed
by a turn to the west by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Madeline is
expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Outer bands from Madeline are forecast to produce
additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches through late this evening over
the southern tip of Baja California.

SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect the southern Baja
California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 200238
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022
0300 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 110.8W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 110.8W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 110.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.1N 111.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.4N 113.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.7N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.7N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.7N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.6N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 21.3N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 21.1N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 110.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 192032
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022

The expected weakening trend of Madeline appears to have begun.
Although convection remains quite deep on the system's west side,
it is becoming increasingly detached from the low-level center due
to about 20 kt of east-northeasterly vertical wind shear. There is
a wide range in the current Dvorak estimates, but since the storm
appears a little less organized, the initial intensity is nudged
down to 50 kt. This also agrees with a partial ASCAT pass that
showed 40-45 kt winds on Madeline's southeast side. The center
is currently a little more than 100 n mi south of Cabo San Lucas,
and there have been wind gusts to tropical storm force reported
there during the past couple of hours.

Madeline is gradually turning to the left, with the initial motion
now estimated to be 295/9 kt. A continued west-northwestward
motion is expected during the next day or so while the storm
remains steered by a deep-layer ridge centered over southern Texas.
After that time, a turn to the west is expected when the system
becomes shallow and moves within the low-level trade winds. The
NHC track forecast is a little to the south and slightly faster
than the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus models.

Since east-northeasterly shear is expected to persist while
Madeline moves into a region of drier air and over cooler SSTs,
steady weakening is expected. Madeline is forecast to become a
post-tropical cyclone in about 36 hours when it predicted to be
over 24 to 25 degree C waters. The NHC intensity forecast is a
little lower than the previous one in the short term, but is
otherwise unchanged.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 20.9N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 21.2N 110.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 21.6N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 21.9N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 21/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0600Z 21.9N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z 21.7N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z 21.6N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z 21.5N 123.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bann


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 192031
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Madeline Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022

...MADELINE HAS TURNED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
...GUSTY WINDS REPORTED IN EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 109.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 109.8 West. Madeline is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed
by a turn to the west by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Madeline is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone by early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Outer bands from Madeline are forecast to produce
additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches this evening over the southern
tip of Baja California.

SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect the southern Baja
California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bann


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 192030
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC MON SEP 19 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 360SE 330SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 109.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.2N 110.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.6N 112.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.9N 113.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.9N 116.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.7N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 21.6N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 21.5N 123.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 109.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BANN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 191501
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
900 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022

Madeline's satellite presentation has improved some this morning.
Although the east-northeasterly shear continues to impede deep
convective development in the northeast quadrant. A new burst of
convection with cold cloud tops of -80C have developed just to the
southeast of the surface center. An earlier AMSR-2 microwave pass
also showed improved curved banding in the western semicircle.
Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimate T-numbers
from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, respectively, along with an earlier
SATCON analysis supports a slight increase to 55 kt for this
advisory.

Increasing deep-layer shear and decreasing oceanic surface
temperatures ahead of Madeline's track should induce a weakening
trend later tonight. The global model simulated IR imagery
shows that the cyclone should shed its deep convection
by early Wednesday and degenerate into a remnant low-pressure
system. The official intensity forecast is similar to last night's
advisory and continues to side with the IVCN consensus model.

Madeline's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or
315/7 kt. A subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico is
expected to build over the Baja California peninsula and to the
north of Madeline by tonight. In response to this change in the
synoptic steering pattern, the cyclone should turn toward the
west-northwest by tonight and slowly turn westward on Wednesday.
Madeline should continue in this heading as a remnant low through
the remainder of the period. The NHC track forecast has been
nudged a little to the south of the previous one within 36 hours to
coincide with the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 20.6N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 21.0N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 21.4N 111.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 21.7N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 21.9N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0000Z 21.9N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z 21.9N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z 21.9N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1200Z 21.8N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 191500
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Madeline Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
900 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022

...MADELINE EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 108.8W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 108.8 West. Madeline is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn
toward the west-northwest is expected by tonight followed by a
westward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Madeline will gradually move away from the coast of Mexico and pass
to the south of the Baja California peninsula by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today,
followed by weakening beginning tonight. Madeline is forecast to
become a remnant low by early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Outer bands from Madeline are forecast to produce
additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches along the Jalisco coast into
this afternoon and 1 to 2 inches this evening over the southern tip
of Baja California.

SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico for the next couple of days, and will spread
northward to the southern Baja California peninsula coast and the
coast of west-central Mexico later today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 191459
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022
1500 UTC MON SEP 19 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 108.8W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 360SE 330SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 108.8W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.0N 109.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.4N 111.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.7N 112.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.9N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.9N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 21.9N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 21.8N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 108.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 190857
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
300 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022

Madeline continues to produce an healthy area of deep convection,
though this activity continues to be somewhat displaced to the
southwest of the center due to moderate northeasterly shear. We
finally received some long awaited scatterometer data at 0357 UTC,
which had a peak wind retrieval of 48-kt in the southern semicircle
of Madeline's circulation. Satellite estimates were also somewhat
higher, with TAFB at T3.5/55-kt, SAB at T3.0/45-kt, and ADT at
T3.2/49-kt. A combination of these intensity estimates support
raising the intensity to 50 kt for this advisory.

Fixes from both scatterometer and microwave data indicate that
Madeline is continuing its northwest heading, estimated at 320/8 kt.
As mid-level ridging builds in to the north, the storm is expected
to turn toward the west-northwest later today and gradually bend
more westward through the end of its lifespan as a tropical cyclone.
While a lot of the guidance continues to be tightly clustered, there
remain a few outliers that are further to the north (HWRF/
Experimental HAFS-S). The latest track forecast was nudged a bit
further north, mostly related to the initial position and motion,
but after 24 hours is very close to the previous forecast track, but
just a touch faster, in agreement with the TVCE and HCCA consensus
aids.

While I cannot rule out that Madeline might intensify a bit more in
the next 6-12 h, the easterly vertical wind shear that has been
plaguing the storm is forecast to increase further later today, as
the storm moves over rapidly cooling sea-surface temperatures,
crossing the 26 C isotherm in about 24 hours. Thus, weakening is
expected to begin by tonight, and simulated satellite imagery
suggests organized deep convection will cease in 36-48 hours, with
the latest forecast still showing Madeline becoming a remnant low by
that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement
with the intensity consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 20.3N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 20.9N 109.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 21.4N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 21.7N 112.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 21.9N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/1800Z 22.0N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0600Z 21.9N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0600Z 21.7N 118.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0600Z 21.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 190856
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Madeline Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
300 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022

...MADELINE INTENSIFIES A BIT MORE...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 108.2W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 108.2 West. Madeline is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn
toward the west-northwest and then west is expected over the next
24-36 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Madeline will
gradually move away from the coast of Mexico and pass to the south
of the Baja California peninsula by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, followed
by weakening expected to begin tonight. Madeline is forecast to
become a remnant low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Outer bands from Madeline are forecast to produce
additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches along the Jalisco coast into
this afternoon and 1 to 2 inches this evening over the southern tip
of Baja California.

SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico for the next couple of days, and will spread
northward to the southern Baja California peninsula coast and the
coast of west-central Mexico later today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 190851
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022
0900 UTC MON SEP 19 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 108.2W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 390SE 360SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 108.2W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.9N 109.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.4N 110.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.7N 112.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.9N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 114.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.9N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 21.7N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 21.5N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 190240
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Madeline has increased in organization over the past several hours.
The low-level center is now embedded underneath the northeastern
portion of a mass of deep convection with cloud tops as cold as -85
degrees Celsius. A recent SSMIS overpass also shows a well-defined
curved band within the western semicircle. The latest subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both T-3.0, and
support raising the initial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory.

There is a small window of opportunity through Monday morning for
Madeline to strengthen a little more, as the storm begins to move
along the shear vector and remains over warm waters and within a
favorable thermodynamic environment. However, by late Monday the
cyclone is forecast to reach the 26 degrees C isotherm and begin to
move into a progressively drier and more stable environment.
Therefore, steady weakening is forecast to begin by that time. Both
the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite suggest that Madeline will
become devoid of deep convection by Tuesday and degenerate into a
remnant low. The latest NHC intensity forecast was increased through
the next 24 h, but is the same as the previous advisory thereafter.

Madeline is continuing its slow turn to the left, and is now moving
northwestward at 8 kt to the southwest of a mid-level ridge. This
motion is beginning to increase the cyclone's distance from the
coast of southwestern Mexico. Based on this and surface
observations, the government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Watch that was in effect for the portion of that coastline.
Model guidance is in very good agreement that Madeline will turn to
the west-northwest on Monday night and then west by Tuesday as the
weakening cyclone becomes steered by the surrounding low-level flow.
The combination of this track and a contracting wind field should
keep tropical-storm-force winds well offshore of the southern Baja
California peninsula as the system passes to the south through
Monday night. The latest NHC track forecast is very little changed
from the previous one and lies near the various multi-model
consensus tracks.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rains from Madeline are expected for portions of coastal
southwestern Mexico into Monday. This rainfall may produce flash and
urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
coastal terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 19.3N 107.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 20.1N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 20.6N 110.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 21.0N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 21.4N 112.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/1200Z 21.6N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0000Z 21.6N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0000Z 21.2N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0000Z 20.8N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 190237
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Madeline Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022

...MADELINE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND IS A LITTLE STRONGER...
...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 107.9W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
along the coast of southwest Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was
located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 107.9 West. Madeline is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected on Monday,
followed by a turn toward the west by Tuesday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Madeline will gradually move away from
the coast of Mexico through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible through Monday morning.
Weakening is expected to begin by Monday night, and Madeline is
forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Madeline can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Madeline are forecast to produce
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local maximum totals of 6
inches into Monday across mainly coastal portions of the following
Mexican States: Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit.

These heavy rains may produce localized flash and urban flooding,
along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico for the next couple of days, and will spread
northward to the southern Baja California peninsula coast and the
coast of west-central Mexico tonight and Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 190233
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022
0300 UTC MON SEP 19 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.9W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 110SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 330SE 310SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.9W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 107.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.1N 109.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.6N 110.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.4N 112.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.6N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.6N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 21.2N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 20.8N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 107.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 182343
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Madeline Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
600 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022

...MADELINE PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 107.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case during the next 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 107.6 West. Madeline is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected on
Monday, followed by a turn toward the west Tuesday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Madeline will gradually move away from
the coast of Mexico through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 24
hours. Weakening is expected to begin by Monday night, and Madeline
is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Madeline can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Madeline are forecast to produce
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local maximum totals of 6
inches into Monday across mainly coastal portions of the following
Mexican States: Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit.

These heavy rains may produce localized flash and urban flooding,
along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area through this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico for the next couple of days, and will spread
northward to the southern Baja California peninsula coast and the
coast of west-central Mexico tonight and Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 182035
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Madeline still has an asymmetric convective pattern, with a large
burst of deep convection mainly confined to the southwestern
quadrant due to deep-layer easterly shear. Visible satellite
images also suggest that there are several low-level swirls
rotating around a common center. Intensity estimates have not
changed since this morning, so the initial intensity remains 40 kt.
Moderate to strong easterly shear is expected to continue for the
next couple of days, and Madeline is also forecast to reach the
cold ocean wake of former Hurricane Kay by late Monday. There is
some chance for slight strengthening before Madeline reaches the
cold wake, but overall little change in intensity is forecast
during the next 24 hours. Weakening is anticipated after that
time, and model-simulated satellite imagery indicate that Madeline
should lose all of its deep convection, and hence become
post-tropical, by 48 hours.

The initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 335/7 kt. Track
model guidance is in good agreement that Madeline will turn
west-northwestward on Monday, and then westward by Tuesday night,
when the weakening cyclone will come under the influence of
lower-level steering winds. The new NHC track forecast, which is
just a bit to the southwest of the morning prediction, anticipates
that Madeline will turn and move away from the coast of Mexico,
including the southern Baja California peninsula, during the next 48
hours.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rains from Madeline are expected for portions of coastal
southwestern Mexico into Monday. This rainfall may produce flash
and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
coastal terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for the southwestern
coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes through this
evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 18.8N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 19.7N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 20.4N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 20.9N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 21.3N 112.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/0600Z 21.5N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z 21.6N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1800Z 21.4N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1800Z 21.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 182034
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Madeline Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022

...MADELINE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 107.4W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case during the next 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 107.4 West. Madeline is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected on
Monday, followed by a turn toward the west Tuesday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Madeline will gradually move away
from the coast of Mexico through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours.
Weakening is expected to begin by Monday night, and Madeline is
forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Madeline can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Madeline are forecast to produce
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local maximum totals of 6
inches today into Monday across mainly coastal portions of the
following Mexican States: Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit.

These heavy rains may produce localized flash and urban flooding,
along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area through this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico for the next couple of days, and will spread
northward to the southern Baja California peninsula coast and the
coast of west-central Mexico tonight and Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 182034
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022
2100 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 107.4W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 110SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 390SE 360SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 107.4W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.7N 108.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.4N 109.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.9N 110.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.3N 112.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.5N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.6N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 21.4N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 21.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 107.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 181736
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Madeline Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
1200 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022

...MADELINE TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 107.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case during the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 107.1 West. Madeline is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected by this evening, followed by a
turn toward the west-northwest and west on Monday and Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Madeline is expected to turn away
from the coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so. Weakening is expected to begin on Monday, and Madeline is likely
to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Madeline can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Madeline are forecast to produce
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local maximum totals of 6
inches today into Monday across mainly coastal portions of the
following Mexican States: Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit.

These heavy rains may produce localized flash and urban flooding,
along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area today and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico for the next few days. High surf
associated with Madeline will spread northward and begin to affect
the coast of the Baja California peninsula today into Monday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 181436
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
900 AM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022

A large burst of deep convection has developed southwest of
Madeline's center during the past few hours, with another broken
line of convection oriented parallel to the southwestern coast of
Mexico. The current intensity remains 40 kt as a blend of the
latest Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB, and the
latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate.

Madeline is located along the southwestern periphery of a large
mid-tropospheric high, and to the southeast of a deep-layer trough
to the west of California. The initial motion is northward, or
350/9 kt, but this steering set up should cause Madeline to
gradually turn northwestward later today, and then
west-northwestward and westward away from the coast of Mexico from
36 hours and beyond. The track guidance is tightly clustered
through 48 hours, but there is more spread after that, with a few
models keeping Madeline too strong and maintaining a northwestward
motion. These models are discounted, and the official forecast
continues to show a westward bend, following the GFS, ECMWF, and
model consensus solutions.

Madeline's broad circulation, and continued moderate to strong
easterly shear, argue against much, if any, intensification during
the next day or so. The official forecast still allows for the
possibility for some minimal strengthening during the next 24 hours
while Madeline is over warm waters. After 24 hours, the storm is
forecast to begin moving across the cold wake left behind by former
Hurricane Kay, which is expected to induce weakening. The updated
NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous
prediction, and it now shows Madeline degenerating into a
post-tropical remnant low by 60 hours, when model simulated
satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF indicate that all deep
convection should have dissipated.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rains from Madeline are expected for portions of coastal
southwestern Mexico into Monday. This rainfall may produce flash
and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
coastal terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for the southwestern
coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes today and
tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 18.5N 106.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 19.5N 107.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 20.4N 108.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 21.0N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 21.3N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 21.5N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z 21.6N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z 21.4N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z 21.1N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 181436
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Madeline Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
900 AM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022

...MADELINE MOVING NORTHWARD BUT EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 106.9W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case during the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 106.9 West. Madeline is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and northwest is expected later today, followed by
a turn toward the west-northwest and west on Monday and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Madeline is expected to turn
away from the coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so.
Weakening is expected to begin on Monday, and Madeline is likely to
degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Madeline can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Madeline are forecast to produce
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local maximum totals of 6
inches today into Monday across mainly coastal portions of the
following Mexican States: Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit.

These heavy rains may produce localized flash and urban flooding,
along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area today and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico for the next few days. High surf
associated with Madeline will spread northward and begin to affect
the coast of the Baja California peninsula today into Monday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 181436
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022
1500 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.9W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 130SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 330SE 300SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.9W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 106.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.5N 107.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.4N 108.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.0N 110.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.3N 111.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.5N 112.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.6N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 21.4N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 21.1N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 106.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 181146
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Madeline Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
600 AM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022

...HEAVY RAINS FROM MADELINE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 106.7W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case over the next 24 to 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 106.7 West. Madeline is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the northwest and then the west is expected through early this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or
so. Weakening is forecast to begin later this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Madeline can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Madeline are forecast to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches with local maximum totals of 8 inches today
into Monday across mainly coastal portions of the following Mexican
States: Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit.

These heavy rains may produce localized flash and urban flooding,
along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area today through Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico for the next few days. High surf
associated with Madeline will spread northward and begin to affect
the coast of Baja California today into Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 180908 CCA
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 3...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Corrected numbering of key messages

Early this morning, Madeline still appears to be feeling the effects
of more than 20 kt of easterly shear, with the deepest convective
cloud tops located some 75 to 100 n mi southwest of the center. The
center structure itself is rather broad, and several mesovortices
can be seen rotating around the mean center location. The latest
round of subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T2.5/35-kt from
SAB and T3.0/45-kt from TAFB. Thus, the initial intensity is being
held at 40 kt for this advisory.

The estimated motion of Madeline has actually been a little bit
right of the previous track, currently estimated a bit east of due
north at 005/7 kt. The track reasoning in the short-term is a bit
complicated. Madeline is currently embedded in large-scale monsoonal
southwesterly flow which appears to be partially responsible for its
short-term rightward deviation from the prior forecast track.
Tropical cyclones (TCs) in this region, including recent TCs Kay
and Lester, have been known to move a bit east of model guidance.
Thus, the initial track forecast has been nudged a bit further east
for the first 12-24 h while the larger-scale low-level flow has a
stronger foothold on Madeline's motion. After that period, a
building mid-level ridge centered over Texas is expected to cause
Madeline to take a rather sharp turn to the northwest, resulting in
Madeline passing south of the Baja California Peninsula. The track
guidance this cycle is notably further north and east early on, but
then shifts back towards the previous track by the end of the
forecast period. Thus, the NHC track forecast was nudged in that
direction, but is not quite as far to the north and east as the
latest HCCA consensus aid. As noted in the previous advisory,
across-track spread at the end of the forecast is rather large, so
this track forecast is of lower confidence.

Intensity-wise, Madeline has only a brief window where the vertical
wind shear is expected to drop below 20 kts, mainly between 12-30 h.
In addition, Madeline is currently a broad tropical cyclone, with a
fairly large radius of maximum wind. Thus, only some modest
additional strengthening is forecast, in line with the upper-end of
the intensity guidance. After 36 h, easterly shear is expected to
increase substantially, and both the GFS and ECMWF simulated IR
brightness show Madeline's convection quickly shearing away as the
storm also crosses the 26 C sea-surface temperature isotherm by 48
h. With the further northward track over cooler waters, the latest
intensity guidance has trended downward, and the NHC intensity
forecast follows suit, weakening Madeline to a depression in 60 h
and making it a remnant low by 72 h. Based on the latest guidance
though, this could occur sooner than forecast.

Madeline is producing a large area of rough surf and high waves,
especially on its south and eastern flank. Given the current large
34-kt radii on the south side of Madeline and the eastward shift in
the forecast track this cycle, the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch from Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes.
Any further deviation to the right of Madeline's track could require
these watches to be upgraded to a warning later today.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rains from Madeline are expected for portions of coastal
southwestern Mexico into Monday. This rainfall may produce flash and
urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
coastal terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for the southwestern
coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes over the next 24
to 36 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 17.7N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 18.8N 107.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 19.9N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 20.6N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 20.9N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 21.1N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 21.2N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0600Z 21.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0600Z 21.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 180900
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Early this morning, Madeline still appears to be feeling the effects
of more than 20 kt of easterly shear, with the deepest convective
cloud tops located some 75 to 100 n mi southwest of the center. The
center structure itself is rather broad, and several mesovortices
can be seen rotating around the mean center location. The latest
round of subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T2.5/35-kt from
SAB and T3.0/45-kt from TAFB. Thus, the initial intensity is being
held at 40 kt for this advisory.

The estimated motion of Madeline has actually been a little bit
right of the previous track, currently estimated a bit east of due
north at 005/7 kt. The track reasoning in the short-term is a bit
complicated. Madeline is currently embedded in large-scale monsoonal
southwesterly flow which appears to be partially responsible for its
short-term rightward deviation from the prior forecast track.
Tropical cyclones (TCs) in this region, including recent TCs Kay
and Lester, have been known to move a bit east of model guidance.
Thus, the initial track forecast has been nudged a bit further east
for the first 12-24 h while the larger-scale low-level flow has a
stronger foothold on Madeline's motion. After that period, a
building mid-level ridge centered over Texas is expected to cause
Madeline to take a rather sharp turn to the northwest, resulting in
Madeline passing south of the Baja California Peninsula. The track
guidance this cycle is notably further north and east early on, but
then shifts back towards the previous track by the end of the
forecast period. Thus, the NHC track forecast was nudged in that
direction, but is not quite as far to the north and east as the
latest HCCA consensus aid. As noted in the previous advisory,
across-track spread at the end of the forecast is rather large, so
this track forecast is of lower confidence.

Intensity-wise, Madeline has only a brief window where the vertical
wind shear is expected to drop below 20 kts, mainly between 12-30 h.
In addition, Madeline is currently a broad tropical cyclone, with a
fairly large radius of maximum wind. Thus, only some modest
additional strengthening is forecast, in line with the upper-end of
the intensity guidance. After 36 h, easterly shear is expected to
increase substantially, and both the GFS and ECMWF simulated IR
brightness show Madeline's convection quickly shearing away as the
storm also crosses the 26 C sea-surface temperature isotherm by 48
h. With the further northward track over cooler waters, the latest
intensity guidance has trended downward, and the NHC intensity
forecast follows suit, weakening Madeline to a depression in 60 h
and making it a remnant low by 72 h. Based on the latest guidance
though, this could occur sooner than forecast.

Madeline is producing a large area of rough surf and high waves,
especially on its south and eastern flank. Given the current large
34-kt radii on the south side of Madeline and the eastward shift in
the forecast track this cycle, the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch from Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes.
Any further deviation to the right of Madeline's track could require
these watches to be upgraded to a warning later today.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rains from Madeline are expected for portions of coastal
southwestern Mexico into Monday. This rainfall may produce flash and
urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
coastal terrain.

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible for the southwestern
coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 17.7N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 18.8N 107.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 19.9N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 20.6N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 20.9N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 21.1N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 21.2N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0600Z 21.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0600Z 21.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 180856
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Madeline Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022

...BROAD MADELINE STILL MOVING NORTHWARD BUT EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 106.6W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...670 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along
the coast of southwestern Mexico from Manzanillo northward to Cabo
Corrientes.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case over the next 24 to 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 106.6 West. Madeline is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the northwest and then the west is expected through early this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so.
Weakening is forecast to begin later this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Madeline can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Madeline are forecast to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches with local maximum totals of 8 inches today
into Monday across mainly coastal portions of the following Mexican
States: Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit.

These heavy rains may produce localized flash and urban flooding,
along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area today through Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico for the next few days. High surf
associated with Madeline will spread northward and begin to affect
the coast of Baja California today into Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 180855
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022
0900 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 130SE 130SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 330SE 270SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.8N 107.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 100SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.9N 108.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.6N 109.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.9N 110.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.1N 112.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.2N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 21.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 21.0N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 106.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 18/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 180258 CCA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022
0300 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022

CORRECTED TO UPDATE 12 FT SEAS

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 106.8W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 110SE 70SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 330SE 270SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 106.8W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 106.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N 107.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 110SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.2N 108.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.0N 109.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.5N 110.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.6N 111.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.7N 113.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 115.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 20.7N 118.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 106.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 180239
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 17 2022

Madeline has changed little in appearance since earlier today.
Moderate east-northeasterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt is
keeping the center of circulation at the northeastern edge of
the cyclone's deep convection. With the lack of any appreciable
change to Madeline's structure, the initial advisory intensity is
being kept at 40 kt for continuity.

The storm has made its anticipated acceleration to the north and is
now moving at about 8 kt. A mid-level ridge over the Atlantic
should keep Madeline on a northward to northwestward track for the
next day or so. By Tuesday, another ridge building over Texas
should cause the cyclone to turn westward. There was very little
change to the latest NHC track forecast from the previous one,
which lies near the various multi-model consensus tracks. It should
be noted that there is over 300 n mi north to south model spread
by day 4. Therefore, the track forecast during days 4-5 is of lower
confidence.

Madeline's intensity forecast is fairly straightforward for the next
few days, but is more complicated thereafter due to the uncertain
track forecast. The moderate shear affecting the storm now is
forecast to persist through early next week while the system remains
embedded in a moist thermodynamic environment. The combination of
these conditions should allow for some slight strengthening over the
next couple of days. By 48 h, the SSTs beneath Madeline are expected
to decrease to near 26 degrees Celsius, which in combination with
the shear, should cause the system to begin weakening around that
time. By late in the forecast period, the shear is forecast to
decrease while warmer waters are present just to the south of the
forecasted path of the cyclone. Therefore, a deviation to the left
of the forecast track could put Madeline in a more favorable
environment for strengthening. However, the models suggest that
regardless of the water temperatures, Madeline is expected to
encounter drier and more stable air later in the forecast period.
Based on these conditions, the NHC intensity forecast was lowered
slightly from the previous one, and is near the various consensus
aids. The latter part of the current intensity forecast is also low
confidence.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 16.9N 106.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 18.0N 107.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 19.2N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 20.0N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 20.5N 110.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 20.6N 111.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 20.7N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 20.7N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 20.7N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 180237
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Madeline Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 17 2022

...MADELINE HEADING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 106.8W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 106.8 West. Madeline is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the northwest then west is expected through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast over the next day or so,
with fluctuations in intensity possible after that.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico for the next few days. High surf
associated with Madeline will spread northward and begin to affect
the coast of Baja California late this weekend or early next week.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 180234
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022
0300 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 106.8W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 110SE 70SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 210SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 106.8W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 106.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N 107.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 110SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.2N 108.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.0N 109.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.5N 110.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.6N 111.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.7N 113.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 115.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 20.7N 118.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 106.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 172032
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 17 2022

A low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the
southwest coast of Mexico has very slowly become better organized
during the past several days. This system has developed and
maintained a well-defined center today, and while it is still
strongly sheared, the convective organization now appears to be
sufficient to classify it as a tropical cyclone. This is supported
in part by Dvorak classifications of 2.0 and 2.5 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. The initial intensity is based primarily on
scatterometer data from around 18Z that showed peak winds near 40 kt
to the southeast of the cyclone's center.

Madeline is currently drifting slowly northward, but a faster
northward motion is forecast to begin this evening. A broad
mid-level ridge extending from over the Atlantic should be the
primary steering feature for the next 24 h or so, until another
ridge centered over Texas begins to build on Sunday. That should
cause Madeline to turn westward and remain on a westward heading
through at least the middle of next week. All of the
normally-reliable track guidance agrees with this general scenario,
but there is a large amount of uncertainty regarding exactly how
fast Madeline will make its turn.

While all of the track guidance keeps the tropical storm well
offshore of Mexico, this uncertainty will have a big impact on the
intensity forecast since Madeline is forecast to turn westward very
near the 26 degree isotherm. A relatively southerly track will allow
Madeline to strengthen, particularly in the 72-120 h portion of the
forecast period when the wind shear may lessen substantially. On the
other hand, a northern track could cause Madeline to become a
remnant low within the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is
near the multi-model consensus and shows a middle ground scenario
where Madeline moves through an environment that would allow it to
remain a tropical cyclone but not substantially strengthen. Given
the uncertainty in the track guidance and the sensitivity of the
intensity to the exact track, the NHC forecast is not very high
confidence at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 15.9N 106.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.0N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 18.4N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 19.5N 108.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 20.2N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 20.4N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 20.5N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 20.5N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 20.5N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 172031
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Madeline Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 17 2022

...TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 106.9W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 106.9 West. Madeline is
drifting toward the north near 1 mph (2 km/h). A faster northward
motion is expected by tonight, followed by a slow counter-clockwise
turn toward the west through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is forecast for the next day or so, with
fluctuations in intensity possible after that.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico for the next few days. High surf
associated with Madeline will spread northward and begin to affect
the coast of Baja California late this weekend or early next week.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 172031
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022
2100 UTC SAT SEP 17 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.9W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 110SE 70SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 210SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.9W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 110SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.4N 107.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.5N 108.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.2N 110.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N 112.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 20.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 106.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>