Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KAY-22
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 100239
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kay Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022

Kay has been devoid of deep convection just about all day (about the
past 15 hours), and it no longer meets the organized deep convection
criteria needed for a tropical cyclone. Therefore, Kay is now
considered a post-tropical cyclone, and since all coastal tropical
storm warnings have been discontinued, this is the last advisory on
this system. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt.

The low has now turned to the west-northwest, and a turn to the
southwest and then the south is expected this weekend and
early next week as the cyclone weakens while moving within the
low-level flow.

Even though Kay is no longer a tropical cyclone, this system is
still producing heavy rains across portions of northern Baja
California and southern California. In addition, strong winds not
directly associated with Kay's core wind field are still occurring
across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern
Arizona. For more information on the wind hazard, see products
from your local NWS Weather Forecast Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 31.3N 118.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 10/1200Z 31.4N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/0000Z 31.4N 120.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/1200Z 31.2N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0000Z 30.5N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1200Z 29.6N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z 29.0N 121.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 100239
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kay Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022

...KAY IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 118.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Cabo San Quintin to the U.S./Mexico border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southern California should consult products from your
local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Kay
was located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 118.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph
(13 km/h). A turn to the southwest and then the south is expected
this weekend and early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind
field are occurring across portions of southern California and
extreme southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard,
users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their
local NWS Weather Forecast Office.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

Baja California: Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maxima of 6 inches. Event total rainfall 6 to 10 inches, isolated
maxima of 15 inches

Western Sonora: Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
maxima of 4 inches. Event total rainfall 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maxima of 8 inches

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 to
8 inches

Sierra Nevada, Arizona, and Southern Nevada: 1 to 2 inches with
isolated maxima of 3 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay are still affecting the coast of
southern California and the northern Baja California peninsula.
These swells should subside on Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Kay. For additional information on the post-tropical
cyclone please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 100239
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
0300 UTC SAT SEP 10 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM CABO SAN QUINTIN TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 118.9W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 118.9W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 118.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.4N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.4N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.2N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.5N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.6N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.0N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 118.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 092341
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022

...KAY PULLING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 118.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WNW OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo San Quintin northward along the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was
located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 118.4 West. Kay is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
to the west is expected on Saturday, and this motion should
continue to take Kay away from the northern Baja California
peninsula.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Kay is expected to
degenerate into a remnant low tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the east of the center. There are continued report of
50-70 mph (80-110 km/h) wind gusts in the mountains east and
northeast of San Diego, with occasional gusts to hurricane force.

The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 994 mb (29.36
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Winds are expected to drop below tropical storm force in the
Tropical Storm Warning area in the northwestern portion of the
Baja California peninsula during the next couple of hours.

Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are
occurring across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users
should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local
NWS Weather Forecast Office.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

Baja California: Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maxima of 6 inches. Event total rainfall 6 to 10 inches, isolated
maxima of 15 inches

Western Sonora: Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
maxima of 4 inches. Event total rainfall 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maxima of 8 inches

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 to
8 inches

Sierra Nevada, Arizona, and Southern Nevada: 1 to 2 inches with
isolated maxima of 3 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect the Baja
California peninsula coast, the Gulf of California, and southern
California during the next day or so. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 092052
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
recent scatterometer data indicate that Kay continues to weaken,
with maximum winds of about 35 kt that are confined to an area over
the Pacific east and northeast of the center. Satellite imagery
shows no organized central convection, with the remaining
thunderstorms well to the north of the center over southern
California. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt based on the
aircraft and scatterometer data. However, stronger winds enhanced
by the mountainous terrain are occuring over portions of southern
California.

Unless the central convection re-develops, which appears unlikely
over sea surface temperatures of 21-22C, Kay should decay to a
remnant low tonight with the maximum winds decreasing below 35 kt.
The global models are in good agreement that the remnant low will
dissipate between 72-96 h, and the official forecast follows this.

While Kay is currently moving northwest or 305/10 kt, it is
starting its expected turn away from land and should move westward
at a slower forward speed during the next 12-24 h. After that, a
low-level ridge to the west of the remnant low should steer the
system slowly southward and southeastward until it dissipates.
There was again little change in the track forecast guidance since
the last advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to the
previous track.

Although Kay's intensity has decreased, wind, surf, and rainfall
impacts continue to extend far from the center so users should not
focus on the exact forecast track of Kay.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. As the center of Kay passes just offshore, heavy rainfall will
likely result in flash flooding, including possible landslides,
across the Baja California peninsula and portions of mainland
northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash, urban, and
small stream flooding is likely across Southern California,
especially in and near the peninsular ranges, and also possible in
the Sierra Nevada, Arizona, and southern Nevada.

2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field
are occurring across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users
should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local
NWS Weather Forecast Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 31.0N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 31.4N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/1800Z 31.5N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/0600Z 31.4N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1800Z 30.9N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z 30.1N 121.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z 29.2N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 092052
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022

...KAY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND COULD DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW
TONIGHT...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 118.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for mainland Mexico and for the east coast of the Baja
California peninsula. The Government of Mexico has also
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning on the west coast of the
Baja California peninsula south of Cabo San Quintin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo San Quintin northward along the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was
located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 118.0 West. Kay is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected later
today, and a turn to the west is expected by late Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Kay will move parallel to the coast of
the northwestern Baja California peninsula through today, and then
begin to move further offshore tonight and Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are
now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening
is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kay is expected to
degenerate into a remnant low sometime tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the east of the center. There are continued report of
50-70 mph (80-110 km/h) wind gusts in the mountains east and
northeast of San Diego, with occasional gusts to hurricane force.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
data is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area.

Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are
occurring across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users
should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local
NWS Weather Forecast Office.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

Baja California: Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maxima of 6 inches. Event total rainfall 6 to 10 inches, isolated
maxima of 15 inches

Western Sonora: Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
maxima of 4 inches. Event total rainfall 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maxima of 8 inches

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 to
8 inches

Sierra Nevada, Arizona, and Southern Nevada: 1 to 2 inches with
isolated maxima of 3 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next day or two. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 092051
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
2100 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF CABO SAN QUINTIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN QUINTIN NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 118.0W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 210SE 180SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 118.0W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 117.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.4N 119.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.5N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.4N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.9N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.1N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.2N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 118.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 10/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 091746
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022

...KAY STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 117.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Eugenia northward along the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border
* Bahia de Los Angeles northward along the east coast of the Baja
California peninsula and then southward to Puerto Libertad in
mainland Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was
located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 117.2 West. Kay is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected later
today, and a turn to the west is expected by late Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Kay will move parallel to the coast of
the northwestern Baja California peninsula through today, and then
begin to move further offshore by Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kay
is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center over the Gulf of California.
During the past few hours, wind gusts of hurricane force have been
reported in the mountains of southern California east and northeast
of San Diego.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area.

Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are
occurring across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users
should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local
NWS Weather Forecast Office.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds
along the west coast of the central and northern Baja California
peninsula of Mexico and along the coast of the northern Gulf of
California. The flooding could be accompanied by large and
damaging waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday...

Baja California: Additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
maxima of 10 inches. Event total rainfall 6 to 10 inches, isolated
maxima of 15 inches

Western Sonora: Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
maxima of 4 inches. Event total rainfall 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maxima of 8 inches

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 to
8 inches

Arizona and Southern Nevada: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3
inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next couple of days. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 091600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 29.9N 116.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.9N 116.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 31.1N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 31.4N 119.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 31.4N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.0N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 30.3N 121.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 29.6N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 28.5N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
091600Z POSITION NEAR 30.3N 116.9W.
09SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 12E (KAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 091200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092200Z, 100400Z, 101000Z
AND 101600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 091453
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022

Kay is gradually becoming less organized. There is currently
minimal convection near its center of circulation, although there is
a complex of convective bands occurring about 75-150 n mi north of
the center. Doppler radar data from Yuma and San Diego has shown
winds as high as 60 kt aloft, although it is unclear how well these
winds are mixing down to the surface. Based on the radar and
satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is reduced to
45 kt, and this could be a bit generous. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is enroute to investigate Kay.

Kay should continue to weaken as it reaches sea surface
temperatures of 20-21C by 24 h, and the dynamical model suggest it
should stop producing convection near or just after that time. The
new intensity forecast shows the cyclone as a minimal tropical storm
in 24 h, followed by decay to a remnant low as the convection
dissipates and the winds drop below tropical-storm force. The
global models indicate that the remnant low should dissipate
between 96-120 h, and the new intensity forecast follows this.

The initial motion is now northwestward or 320/ 11 kt. A mid-level
ridge to the north of Kay is expected to cause the cyclone to
gradually turn west-northwestward away from land in the next 12 h,
followed by a westward turn between 12-24 h. After that time,
low-level ridging in the Eastern Pacific should steer the remnant
low slowly southward and then southeastward before the system
dissipates completely. There was little change in the track
forecast guidance since the last advisory, and the new forecast
track is similar to the previous track.

Although Kay's intensity has decreased, the tropical cyclone 34-kt
wind radii remain quite large on its eastern side. Wind, surf, and
rainfall impacts continue to extend far from the center so users
should not focus on the exact forecast track of Kay.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. As the center of Kay passes just offshore, heavy rainfall will
likely result in flash flooding, including possible landslides,
across the Baja California peninsula and portions of mainland
northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash, urban, and
small stream flooding is likely across Southern California beginning
today, especially in and near the peninsular ranges. Flash, urban,
and small stream flooding is possible beginning today in Arizona
and southern Nevada.

2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Baja
California peninsula, and these conditions extend all the way to the
northern Gulf of California coastline, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.

3. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field
are occurring across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users
should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local
NWS Weather Forecast Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 30.3N 116.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 31.1N 118.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 31.4N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 31.4N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1200Z 31.0N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0000Z 30.3N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z 29.6N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z 28.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 091452
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022

...KAY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ONGOING IN MEXICO AND SPREADING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 116.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WNW OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for mainland Mexico south of Puerto Libertad, for the east
coast of the Baja California Peninsula south of Bahia de Los
Angeles, and for the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula
south of Punta Eugenia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Eugenia northward along the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border
* Bahia de Los Angeles northward along the east coast of the Baja
California peninsula and then southward to Puerto Libertad in
mainland Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was
located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 116.7 West. Kay is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward
the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected
later today, and a turn to the west is expected by late Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Kay will move parallel to the
coast of the northwestern Baja California peninsula through today,
and then begin to move further offshore by Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kay is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center over the Gulf of California. Wind
gusts in excess of 60 mph (95 km/h) have been reported in the
mountains of southern California east and northeast of San Diego.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward
today.

Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are
occurring across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users
should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local
NWS Weather Forecast Office.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds
along the west coast of the central and northern Baja California
peninsula of Mexico and along the coast of the northern Gulf of
California. The flooding could be accompanied by large and
damaging waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday...

Baja California: Additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
maxima of 10 inches. Event total rainfall 6 to 10 inches, isolated
maxima of 15 inches

Western Sonora: Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
maxima of 4 inches. Event total rainfall 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maxima of 8 inches

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 to
8 inches

Arizona and Southern Nevada: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3
inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next couple of days. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 091452
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF PUERTO LIBERTAD...FOR THE EAST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA EUGENIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
* BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO LIBERTAD IN
MAINLAND MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 116.7W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......170NE 180SE 80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 180SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 116.7W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 116.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 31.1N 118.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.4N 119.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.4N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.3N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.6N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 28.5N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 116.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 09/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 091149
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022

...KAY CONTINUES MOVING PARALLEL TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ONGOING IN MEXICO AND ANTICIPATED TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 116.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NNW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos northward along the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border
* Santa Rosalia northward along the east coast of the Baja
California peninsula and then southward to Bahia Kino in mainland
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 116.2 West. Kay is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower
northwestward to west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin
today and continue into Saturday. A turn to the west is expected by
late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will move
parallel to the coast of the northwestern Baja California peninsula
through today, and then begin to move further offshore by Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Kay is expected to degenerate into a remnant low
by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center, mainly to the east of the center over the Gulf of
California.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward
today.

Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are
expected across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona beginning today. For information on this
wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products
from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds
along the west coast of the central and northern Baja California
peninsula of Mexico and along the coast of the northern Gulf of
California. The flooding could be accompanied by large and
damaging waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday:

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches

Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6
to 8 inches

Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next couple of days. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 091000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 29.0N 115.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.0N 115.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.5N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 31.3N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 31.5N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 31.3N 121.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 30.6N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 29.9N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 28.6N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
091000Z POSITION NEAR 29.5N 116.1W.
09SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 12E (KAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 090600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091600Z, 092200Z,
100400Z AND 101000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 090854
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022

After moving back offshore yesterday evening, Kay has been roughly
paralleling the northwestern coastline of the Baja California
peninsula. The satellite presentation is not all that impressive,
with the majority of the deep convective activity firing over the
warm waters of the Gulf of California and adjacent mountainous
terrain, well removed from Kay's center. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft was able to reach the center earlier this
morning, and found that Kay's circulation is largely intact, with
peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 62 kt and a minimum central
pressure of 990 mb. While the standard wind reduction at that flight
level would still typically support 55 kt, the SFMR-derived winds
in that area were much lower, which better match a dropsonde also
launched in the area. South of the center, there were some
significant winds observed, with a sustained wind of 44 kt at Isla
Cedros at 0630 UTC. Based on a combination of all these data, the
initial intensity was reduced to 50 kt for this advisory.

Additional weakening over the next 24-36 hours is expected as Kay
will be traversing sub-23 C sea-surface temperatures and
approaching even cooler waters in the cold California Current. The
GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models all indicate that Kay will cease to
produce organized deep convection near its center in about 36 hours,
marking its transition to a post-tropical remnant low off the coast
of Southern California. The low should spin down further and
dissipate sometime in the 4-5 day forecast. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is in good agreement with the intensity guidance suite.

From the two recon fixes, Kay continues to move off to the
north-northwest at 330/11 kt. A narrowing mid-level ridge draped
along the northeast side of the storm is expected to maintain this
motion with a gradual turn to the northwest and west-northwest today
into tonight. As Kay loses its remaining deep convection and becomes
more shallow, the weak low-level ridging in the Eastern Pacific
should result in the remnant low making a slow cyclonic turn away
from the western U.S. coastline. The latest track guidance has
shifted a bit more leftward this cycle, and the latest NHC track
forecast was also shifted in that direction, towards the track
consensus aids.

Although Kay's maximum sustained winds are lower, the tropical
cyclone 34-kt wind radii remain quite large on its eastern side, as
seen in recent scatterometer data showing these tropical-storm-force
winds extending up to the northern Gulf of California coast. Wind,
surf, and rainfall impacts continue to extend far from the center so
users should not focus on the exact forecast track of Kay.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of
mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash,
urban, and small stream flooding is likely across Southern
California beginning today, especially in and near the peninsular
ranges. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible
beginning later today in Southwest Arizona.

2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Baja
California peninsula, and these conditions extend all the way to the
northern Gulf of California coastline, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.

3. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field
are expected across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona later today. For information on this wind
hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from
their local NWS Weather Forecast Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 29.4N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 30.5N 117.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 31.3N 119.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 31.5N 120.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0600Z 31.3N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/1800Z 30.6N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z 29.9N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z 28.6N 120.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 090852
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022

...KAY MOVING PARALLEL TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ONGOING IN MEXICO AND ANTICIPATED TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 116.0W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NNW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warnings south of Punta Abreojos on the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, south of Santa Rosalia on the east coast of
the Baja California peninsula, and south of Bahia Kino on the Gulf
of California coast of Mainland Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos northward along the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border
* Santa Rosalia northward along the east coast of the Baja
California peninsula and then southward to Bahia Kino in mainland
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 116.0 West. Kay is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower
northwestward to west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin
today and continue into Saturday. A turn to the west is expected by
late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will move
parallel to the coast of the northwestern Baja California peninsula
through today, and then begin to move further offshore by Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Kay is expected to degenerate into a remnant low
by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center. In the past few hours, a weather station in Isla
Cedros reported a sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h).

The most recent minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward
today.

Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are
expected across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona beginning today. For information on this
wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products
from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds
along the west coast of the central and northern Baja California
peninsula of Mexico and along the coast of the northern Gulf of
California. The flooding could be accompanied by large and
damaging waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday:

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches

Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6
to 8 inches

Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next couple of days. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 090848
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
0900 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS SOUTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...SOUTH OF SANTA ROSALIA ON THE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND SOUTH OF BAHIA KINO ON THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
* SANTA ROSALIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO IN MAINLAND
MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 116.0W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT.......170NE 200SE 80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 360SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 116.0W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 115.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 30.5N 117.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.3N 119.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.5N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.3N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.6N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.9N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 28.6N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 116.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 09/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 090555
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 08 2022

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS KAY PARALLELS THE WESTERN COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 115.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto San Andresito northward along the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border
* North of Loreto northward along the east coast of the Baja
California peninsula and then southward to Guaymas in mainland
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 115.5 West. Kay is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower
northwestward to west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin
Friday and continue into Saturday. A turn to the west is expected
by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will
pass near or west of the northwest coast of the Baja California
peninsula later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Kay is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is is 987 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward
through Friday.

Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are
expected across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona beginning on Friday. For information on this
wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products
from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds along the west coast of the
central Baja California peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday:

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches

Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches

Southernmost California: 3 to 5 inches with isolated maxima of 8
inches

Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next couple of days. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 090316 CCA
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 19...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 08 2022

Corrected numbering of key messages

Based on satellite fixes, the center of Kay is estimated to have
moved back over the waters of the east Pacific to the north of
Punta Eugenia. Most of the deep convection is occurring over the
northern semicircle of the circulation and the cloud tops continue
to gradually warm. Using subjective Dvorak Current Intensity
numbers, the advisory intensity is set at 55 kt, although this could
still be generous. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate Kay in a few hours.

Steady weakening should occur during the next 48 hours due to
passage over progressively cooler ocean waters west of the northern
Baja California peninsula. The official intensity forecast is a
little below the previous NHC prediction and is in good agreement
with the latest statistical/dynamical LGEM model guidance. This is
also on the high end of the intensity model suite. The system is
likely to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in 48 hours,
if not sooner.

Kay continues to move north-northwestward or around 330/12 kt.
A mid-level ridge to the east and northeast of the cyclone should
steer it on a north-northwestward to northwestward heading for the
next 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter, the weakening and increasingly
shallow Kay is expected to turn more westward, and eventually
southward to the southeast of a low-level ridge over the eastern
Pacific. The official track forecast has been shifted a little
south and west of the previous one, toward the latest dynamical
model consensus.

Although it is weakening, Kay remains a fairly large tropical
cyclone. Wind, surf, and rainfall impacts continue to extend far
from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast
track.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of
mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash,
urban, and small stream flooding is likely across Southern
California beginning Friday, especially in and near the peninsular
ranges. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible
beginning Friday in Southwest Arizona.

2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Baja California peninsula, and these conditions should continue to
spread northward during the next day or so, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.

3. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field
are expected across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona beginning on Friday. For information on this
wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products
from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 28.4N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 29.8N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 31.4N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 31.5N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/1200Z 31.0N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0000Z 30.4N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z 29.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0000Z 28.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 090400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 019
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 12E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 27.9N 114.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 114.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.8N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 30.9N 117.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 31.4N 119.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 31.5N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.0N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 30.4N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 29.0N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 28.5N 119.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
090400Z POSITION NEAR 28.5N 115.1W.
09SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 12E (KAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 316 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091000Z, 091600Z, 092200Z AND 100400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 090252
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 08 2022

Based on satellite fixes, the center of Kay is estimated to have
moved back over the waters of the east Pacific to the north of
Punta Eugenia. Most of the deep convection is occurring over the
northern semicircle of the circulation and the cloud tops continue
to gradually warm. Using subjective Dvorak Current Intensity
numbers, the advisory intensity is set at 55 kt, although this could
still be generous. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate Kay in a few hours.

Steady weakening should occur during the next 48 hours due to
passage over progressively cooler ocean waters west of the northern
Baja California peninsula. The official intensity forecast is a
little below the previous NHC prediction and is in good agreement
with the latest statistical/dynamical LGEM model guidance. This is
also on the high end of the intensity model suite. The system is
likely to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in 48 hours,
if not sooner.

Kay continues to move north-northwestward or around 330/12 kt.
A mid-level ridge to the east and northeast of the cyclone should
steer it on a north-northwestward to northwestward heading for the
next 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter, the weakening and increasingly
shallow Kay is expected to turn more westward, and eventually
southward to the southeast of a low-level ridge over the eastern
Pacific. The official track forecast has been shifted a little
south and west of the previous one, toward the latest dynamical
model consensus.

Although it is weakening, Kay remains a fairly large tropical
cyclone. Wind, surf, and rainfall impacts continue to extend far
from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast
track.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of
mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash,
urban, and small stream flooding is likely across Southern
California beginning Friday, especially in and near the peninsular
ranges. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible
beginning Friday in Southwest Arizona.

3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Baja California peninsula, and these conditions should continue to
spread northward during the next day or so, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.

4. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field
are expected across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona beginning on Friday. For information on this
wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products
from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 28.4N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 29.8N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 31.4N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 31.5N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/1200Z 31.0N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0000Z 30.4N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z 29.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0000Z 28.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 090251
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 08 2022

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 115.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warnings south of Puerto San Andresito on the west coast of the
Baja California peninsula and south of Loreto on the east
coast of the Baja California peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto San Andresito northward along the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border
* North of Loreto northward along the east coast of the Baja
California peninsula and then southward to Guaymas in mainland
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 115.0 West. Kay is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower
northwestward to west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin
on Friday and continue into Saturday. A turn to the west is
expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay
will pass near or west of the northwest coast of the Baja peninsula
Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Kay is expected to degenerate into a
remnant low by late Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward
through Friday.

Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are
expected across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona beginning on Friday. For information on this
wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products
from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds along the west coast of the
central Baja California peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday:

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches

Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches

Southernmost California: 3 to 5 inches with isolated maxima of 8
inches

Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next couple of days. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 090251
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
0300 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS SOUTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTH OF LORETO ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
* NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND
MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 115.0W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 390SE 240SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 115.0W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.8N 116.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.4N 119.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.0N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.4N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 29.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 28.5N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 115.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 09/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 082358
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
600 PM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022

...KAY CONTINUES TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 114.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM E OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a
Tropical Storm Warning from north of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De
Las Palomas on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula,
and discontinued the Hurricane Watch from Puerto Cortes to Punta
Abreojos on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes northward along the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border
* North of San Evaristo northward along the entire east coast of
the Baja California peninsula and then southward to Guaymas in
mainland Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 114.6 West. Kay is moving toward
the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion
should continue through Friday. A slower northwestward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Friday and
continue into Saturday. A turn to the west is expected by Saturday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will pass near the
northwest coast of the Baja peninsula Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the Tropical
Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward through
Friday.

Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are
expected across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona beginning on Friday. For information on this
wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products
from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds along the west coast of the
central Baja California peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday?-?

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches

Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 8
inches

Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next couple of days. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 082200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 26.6N 114.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6N 114.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.7N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.4N 116.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 31.3N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 31.7N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 31.7N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 31.0N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 29.5N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.5N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
082200Z POSITION NEAR 27.3N 114.5W.
08SEP22. HURRICANE 12E (KAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090400Z, 091000Z, 091600Z AND 092200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 082053
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that Kay continues to weaken. The aircraft
did not find winds supporting hurricane intensity in the part of
the storm it sampled, and it reported that the central pressure has
risen to 982 mb. However, the plane was not able to sample the area
of convection just northeast of the center where the strongest
winds were likely occurring. The initial intensity is reduced to 65
kt on the premise that those winds still exist in the northeastern
quadrant. However, this could be generous.

The core of Kay will be crossing portions of Baja California near
Punta Eugenia during the next few hours, and then move back over
the cold water of the Pacific. This combination should cause
additional weakening. Kay is expected to weaken to a tropical
storm during the next few hours, and the cyclone is forecast to
lose its convection in about 48-60 h at roughly the same time the
winds drop below 35 kt. After that, the cyclone should quickly
decay to a remnant area of low pressure.

Kay continues to move north-northwestward or 335/12 kt. There is
again no change to the previous track forecast philosophy. A
mid-level ridge to the east of Kay should steer it on a
north-northwestward heading during the next 24 to 36 hours. After
that time, a weaker and more vertically shallow Kay is expected to
turn more westward, and eventually southward to the southeast of a
low-level ridge over the eastern Pacific. The new track forecast
again has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.

Recent scatterometer and dropsonde data indicate that Kay remains a
very large tropical cyclone, with a large area of tropical-storm-
force winds over the Gulf of California. It is also producing an
extensive area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of
southwestern Mexico, the Gulf of California, and the Baja California
peninsula. Although Kay is forecast to weaken, high wind, surf, and
rainfall impacts will continue to extend far from the center so
users should not focus on the exact forecast track.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of
mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash,
urban, and small stream flooding is likely across Southern
California beginning Friday, especially in and near the peninsular
ranges. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible
beginning Friday in Southwest Arizona.

2. Hurricane conditions are occuring over portion of the central
Baja California Peninsula and should continue for a few more hours.

3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected to
spread northward during the next day or so, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.

4. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field
are expected across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona beginning on Friday. For information on this
wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products
from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 27.1N 114.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...ON COAST
12H 09/0600Z 28.7N 115.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 30.4N 116.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 31.3N 118.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 31.7N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 31.7N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1800Z 31.0N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z 29.5N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z 28.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 082053
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022

...CENTER OF KAY MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 114.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula from
San Evaristo southward, and for the west coast of the Baja
California Peninsula south of Puerto Cortes.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Puerto Cortes
* San Jose De Las Palomas to the U.S./Mexico border
* North of San Evaristo northward along the entire east coast of
the Baja California peninsula and then southward to Guaymas in
mainland Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 114.3 West. Kay is moving toward
the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through Friday. A slower northwestward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Friday and
continue into Saturday. A turn toward the west is expected by
Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will pass
over portions of the Baja California peninsula near Punta Eugenia
for the next several hours, then move over the Pacific near and
offshore of the northwest coast of the Baja California peninsula
later tonight, Friday, and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the
next couple of days, and Kay is expected to weaken to a tropical
storm in the next few hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
for the next few hours, and are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions
are occurring over the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast
to spread northward through Friday.

Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are
expected across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona beginning on Friday. For information on this
wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products
from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds near the landfall location
along the western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday?-?

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches

Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 8
inches

Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next couple of days. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 082053
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
2100 UTC THU SEP 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM
SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF PUERTO CORTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CORTES
* SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN
MAINLAND MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 114.3W AT 08/2100Z...ON COAST
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......190NE 190SE 80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 420SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 114.3W AT 08/2100Z...ON COAST
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 114.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 28.7N 115.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 30.4N 116.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.3N 118.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.7N 119.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.7N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 31.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 29.5N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 28.5N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 114.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 09/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 081800
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1200 PM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022

...KAY EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 114.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning along the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula from
Todos Santos to Cabo San Lucas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Todos Santos.
* San Jose De Las Palomas to the U.S./Mexico border
* North of la Paz northward along the entire east coast of the Baja
California peninsula and then southward to Guaymas in mainland
Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in thisd case in the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 114.1 West. Kay is moving
toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through Friday. A slower northwestward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Friday and
continue into Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is
expected move over or near the west-central coast of the Baja
California peninsula later today and tonight, and near the northwest
coast of the Baja California peninsula on Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph
(130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected
during the next couple of days. However, Kay is expected to remain
a large hurricane when it passes over or near the west-central
coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next several
hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
during the next few hours, and are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the
Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward
through Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the
western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday?-?

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches

Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches

Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next couple of days. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 081600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 25.2N 113.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 113.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.6N 114.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.6N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 30.9N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 31.5N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 31.7N 119.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.3N 120.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 30.0N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 28.5N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
081600Z POSITION NEAR 26.0N 113.9W.
08SEP22. HURRICANE 12E (KAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z
IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082200Z, 090400Z, 091000Z AND 091600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 081443
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022

Kay continues to lose organization in satellite imagery, as there
is no longer an eye present and the central convection continues to
decrease. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates are in the 65-77 kt range, and based on this the initial
intensity is held at a possibly generous 75 kt. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate Kay.

Kay is now over 23C sea surface temperatures and will be traversing
progressively cooler SSTs over the next couple of days. That,
along with land interaction and a gradually drying mid-level air
mass, is expected to cause gradual weakening over the next couple of
days. However, Kay is forecast to remain a hurricane when it passes
near or over the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula
in about 12 h, and remain a tropical storm as it passes just west
of the northwestern portion of the peninsula on Friday. The cyclone
is expected to lose its convection and become post-tropical between
48-60 h, and then decay to a remnant low pressure area by 72 h.

Kay continues to move north-northwestward or 345/13 kt. There is no
change to the previous track forecast philosophy. A mid-level
ridge to the east of Kay should steer it on a north-northwestward
heading during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a weaker
and more vertically shallow Kay is expected to turn more westward,
and eventually southward to the southeast of a low-level ridge over
the eastern Pacific. The track guidance has changed little since
the last advisory, so the new track forecast has only minor
adjustments from the previous forecast.

Kay remains a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an
extensive area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of
southwestern Mexico, the Gulf of California, and the Baja California
peninsula. Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes
landfall or moves very close to the west-central coast of the Baja
peninsula, it is forecast to remain a large and dangerous hurricane
through that time. In addition, high wind, surf, and rainfall
impacts will extend far from the center so users should not focus on
the exact forecast track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. As the center of Kay passes just offshore, heavy rainfall could
lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across the Baja
California peninsula and portions of mainland northwestern Mexico
through Saturday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding
is likely across Southern California beginning Friday, especially in
and near the peninsular ranges. Flash, urban, and small stream
flooding is possible beginning Friday in Southwest Arizona.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the
west-central Baja California coast later this morning through
this evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected
to spread northward during the next day or so, where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 25.8N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 27.6N 114.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1200Z 29.6N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 31.5N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 31.7N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 11/1200Z 31.3N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z 30.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z 28.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 081443
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022

...CENTER OF KAY GETTING CLOSE TO THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 113.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for east coast of the Baja California peninsula from La Paz
southward to Cabo San Lucas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* San Jose De Las Palomas to the U.S./Mexico border
* North of la Paz northward along the entire east coast of the Baja
California peninsula and then southward to Guaymas in mainland
Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 113.8 West. Kay is moving
toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through Friday. A slower northwestward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Friday and
continue into Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is
expected move over or near the west-central coast of the Baja
California peninsula later today and tonight, and near the northwest
coast of the Baja California peninsula on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days.
However, Kay is expected to remain a large hurricane when it passes
over or near the west-central coast of the Baja California
peninsula today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area beginning during the next several hours, and are possible
within the Hurricane Watch area today. Tropical storm conditions
are occurring over the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast
to spread northward through Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the
western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday?-?

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches

Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches

Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next couple of days. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 081442
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
1500 UTC THU SEP 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
* NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND
MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 113.8W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......200NE 180SE 130SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 360SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 113.8W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 113.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.6N 114.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.6N 116.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.5N 118.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.7N 119.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.3N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 28.5N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 113.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 08/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 081154
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
600 AM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022

...KAY CONTINUING ITS APPROACH TO BAJA CALIFORNIA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 113.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* San Jose De Las Palomas to the U.S./Mexico border
* Cabo San Lucas northward along the entire east coast of the Baja
California peninsula and then southward to Guaymas in mainland
Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 113.5 West. Kay is moving toward
the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion
should continue into midday Friday. A slower northwestward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Friday and
continue into Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is
expected move near or over the west-central coast of the Baja
California peninsula later today and tonight, and near the northwest
coast of the Baja California peninsula on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days.
However, Kay is expected to remain a large hurricane when it passes
near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km). A Mexican automated station at Puerto Cortes
recently reported sustained winds of 50 mph (81 km/h) and a wind
gust of 68 mph (109 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area beginning by late this morning, and are possible within the
Hurricane Watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
over the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread
northward through Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the
western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday...

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches

Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches

Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 4 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next couple of days. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 23.9N 113.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 113.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.5N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.7N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.5N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 31.4N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 31.7N 119.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 31.7N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 30.3N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 28.7N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
081000Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 113.5W.
08SEP22. HURRICANE 12E (KAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 567 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081600Z, 082200Z, 090400Z AND 091000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 080851
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022

The satellite presentation of Kay has gradually degraded overnight
with the eye becoming less defined, and the deepest convection
confined to the southeastern and eastern portions of the
circulation. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that
investigated Kay overnight has measured peak 700-mb flight-level
winds of 78 kt. Unfortunately the SFMR data appeared
unrepresentative as compared to corresponding dropsonde surface
winds and recent scatterometer data. As a result, there is higher
uncertainty in how much the flight-level winds are mixing to the
surface. The initial intensity has been conservatively reduced to
75 kt, which is a blend of the flight-level reduced winds, and
recent satellite intensity estimates. The aircraft reported a
minimum pressure of 974 mb on its final pass through the center.

Kay has crossed the 26 degree Celsius isotherm and will be
traversing progressively cooler SSTs over the next couple of days.
That, along with a gradually drying mid-level air mass, is expected
to cause gradual weakening over the next couple of days. However,
Kay is forecast to remain a hurricane when it passes near or over
the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula later
today, and remain a tropical storm as it passes just west of the
northwestern portion of the peninsula on Friday. Simulated
satellite imagery from the global models suggest the convection
will wane on Saturday, and Kay is forecast to become post-tropical
at that time. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for slightly
faster rate of weakening than before, and is near the IVCN and HCCA
consensus aids.

Kay continues to move north-northwestward or 345/12 kt. A mid-level
ridge to the east of Kay should steer it on a north-northwestward
heading during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a weaker
and more vertically shallow Kay is expected to turn more westward,
and eventually southward to the southeast of a low-level ridge over
the eastern Pacific. The NHC track forecast lies near the HFIP
corrected consensus model, and is quite similar to the previous
official forecast.

Kay is a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive
area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern
Mexico, the Gulf of California, and the Baja California peninsula.
Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes landfall or moves
very close to the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is
forecast to remain a large and dangerous hurricane through that
time. In addition, high wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will
extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact
forecast track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. As the center of Kay passes near or over the Baja California
peninsula, heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of
mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash,
urban, and small stream flooding is possible across Southern
California, especially in and near the peninsular ranges, and
Southwest Arizona, Friday into Saturday.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the
west-central Baja California coast later this morning through
this evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected
to spread northward during the next day or so, where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 24.5N 113.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 26.5N 114.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 28.7N 115.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 30.5N 116.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 31.4N 118.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 31.7N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 11/0600Z 31.7N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0600Z 30.3N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z 28.7N 120.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 080850
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022

...KAY EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 113.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula northward to
the U.S./Mexico border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* San Jose De Las Palomas to the U.S./Mexico border
* Cabo San Lucas northward along the entire east coast of the Baja
California peninsula and then southward to Guaymas in mainland
Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 113.4 West. Kay is moving toward
the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion
should continue into midday Friday. A slower northwestward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Friday and
continue into Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is
expected move near or over the west-central coast of the Baja
California peninsula later today and tonight, and near the northwest
coast of the Baja California peninsula on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days.
However, Kay is expected to remain a large hurricane when it passes
near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The latest minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area beginning by late this morning, and are possible within the
Hurricane Watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
over the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread
northward through Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the
western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday...

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches

Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches

Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 4 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next couple of days. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 080850
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
0900 UTC THU SEP 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO
THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND
MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 113.4W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......200NE 180SE 130SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 480SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 113.4W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 113.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.5N 114.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 28.7N 115.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 30.5N 116.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.4N 118.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.7N 119.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.7N 120.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.3N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 28.7N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 113.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 080546
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1200 AM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 113.2W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* San Jose De Las Palomas to Ensenada
* Cabo San Lucas northward along the entire east of Baja and then
southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ensenada to U.S./Mexico border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 23.9
North, longitude 113.2 West. Kay is moving toward the
north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion
should continue into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of
Kay is expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California
peninsula this morning, and be near or over the west-central coast
of the Baja California peninsula later today and tonight, and near
the northwest coast of the Baja California peninsula on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next couple of days.
However, Kay is expected to remain a large hurricane when it passes
near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km). An automated observing station at Puerto Cortes, on
the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, reported a
sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a peak gust to 55 mph (89
km/h) during the past couple of hours.

The latest minimum central pressure measured by reconnaissance
aircraft is 972 mb (28.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area beginning later today, and are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the
Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward
through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area on Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the
western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday:

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches

Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches

Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 4 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next couple of days. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 080400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 22.6N 112.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 112.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.1N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.5N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.5N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 30.9N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 31.6N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 31.5N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 30.5N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 29.0N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
080400Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 113.2W.
08SEP22. HURRICANE 12E (KAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 646 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081000Z, 081600Z, 082200Z AND 090400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 080247
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022

Kay is still exhibiting a ragged-looking eye on enhanced infrared
imagery, but the surrounding cloud tops have been warming
significantly. The overall cloud pattern is becoming less
organized with some elongation from south to north. Upper-level
outflow is restricted over the western portion of the circulation.
Dvorak T-numbers are decreasing and the current intensity estimate
is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory, which is a compromise between
subjective Dvorak T and CI numbers. The earlier Hurricane Hunter
mission suggested that the satellite-estimated intensities were
probably a little on the high side.

Although the vertical wind shear is not forecast to increase much
during the next couple of days, SSTs beneath Kay will be steadily
cooling along with a gradual drying of the mid-level air mass.
These environmental factors should lead to continued weakening
during the forecast period. The official intensity forecast calls
for a little faster rate of weakening than the previous NHC
prediction, but is generally above the model guidance. Kay should
weaken even faster than shown here if the center tracks over a
portion of the Baja California land mass.

The hurricane is moving north-northwestward, or at about 345/12 kt.
A mid-level ridge to the east and northeast of the tropical
cyclone is likely to maintain the north-northwestward track for
a couple of days. Thereafter, the weakening and increasingly
shallow Kay is forecast to turn more westward, and eventually
southward, away from land as it becomes steered by the flow on the
south and east side of a low-level ridge over the northeastern
Pacific. The official track forecast is shifted slightly east and
north of the previous NHC prediction and is very close to the
latest corrected dynamical model consensus.

Kay is a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive
area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern
Mexico and the Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is likely to
weaken before it makes landfall or moves very close to the
west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a
large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high
wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so
users should not focus on the exact forecast track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. As the center of Kay passes near or over the Baja California
peninsula, heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of
mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash,
urban, and small stream flooding is possible across Southern
California, especially in and near the peninsular ranges, and
Southwest Arizona, Friday night into Saturday.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the
west-central Baja California coast on Thursday and Thursday night,
and a hurricane warning is in effect for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected
to spread northward during the next day or so, where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 23.2N 113.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 25.1N 113.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 27.5N 114.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 29.5N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 31.6N 119.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 31.5N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0000Z 30.5N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0000Z 29.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 080247
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022

...KAY EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 113.0W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula
north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* San Jose De Las Palomas to Ensenada
* Cabo San Lucas northward along the entire east of Baja and then
southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ensenada to U.S./Mexico border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 113.0 West. Kay is moving
toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion should continue into Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Kay is expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja
California peninsula this evening and tonight, and be near or over
the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula Thursday and
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next couple of days.
However, Kay is expected to remain a large hurricane when it passes
near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km). An automated observing station at Puerto Cortes,
on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, reported a
sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a peak gust to 54 mph (87
km/h) during the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area beginning on Thursday, and are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are spreading over
the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread
northward through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the
western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday:

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches

Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches

Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 4 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next few days. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 080246
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
0300 UTC THU SEP 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
NORTH OF CABO SAN QUINTIN TO ENSENADA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO ENSENADA
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST OF BAJA AND THEN
SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ENSENADA TO U.S./MEXICO BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 113.0W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 160SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 510SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 113.0W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 112.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.1N 113.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 160SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.5N 114.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.6N 119.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.5N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 30.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 29.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 113.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 08/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 072353
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
600 PM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022

...KAY BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 113.0W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* San Jose De Las Palomas to Cabo San Quintin
* Cabo San Lucas northward along the entire east of Baja and then
southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Quintin to U.S./Mexico border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 113.0 West. Kay is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion should continue into Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Kay is expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja
California peninsula this evening and tonight, and be near the
west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula Thursday and
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next couple of days.
However, Kay is expected to remain a large hurricane when it passes
near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km). An automated observing station at Puerto Cortes,
on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, reported a
sustained wind of 33 mph (54 km/h) and a gust to 41 mph (67 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area beginning on Thursday, and are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are spreading over
the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread
northward through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the
western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday:

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches

Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches

Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 4 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next few days. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 072200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 21.5N 112.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 112.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.8N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.1N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.2N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 29.8N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 30.8N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 31.2N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 31.0N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 29.0N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
072200Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 113.0W.
07SEP22. HURRICANE 12E (KAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080400Z, 081000Z, 081600Z AND 082200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 072043
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
300 PM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022

After getting better organized this morning, the window for Kay to
intensify may be closing as the center has reached an area where
the sea surface temperatures have decreased to 26C. Data from an
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed that the central
pressure was near 971 mb, but that the maximum 700-mb flight level
winds were only 82 kt, with lower surface winds estimates from the
SFMR. The aircraft also reported a decay of the eyewall structure
during the mission, which is matched by a decay in the eye and
eyewall structure seen in satellite imagery. The initial intensity
is reduced to 85 kt, and this could be a bit generous.

The forecast track takes the center over progressively cooler water
during the next several days, and continued steady weakening is
expected. However, the weakening may be slower than normal since
part of the large circulation will be over the warm Gulf of
California. Kay is still forecast to be a hurricane when it passes
near or over the western portion of the Baja California Peninsula in
24-36 h. After that, the cyclone should weaken below hurricane
strength by 48 h and below tropical storm strength after 72 h. The
new intensity forecast shows lower intensities than the previous
forecast and lies close to the intensity consensus models.

The initial motion is north-northwestward or 340/11 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the north and northeast of the hurricane should
continue to steer Kay generally north-northwestward for the next 48
h or so, taking the core of Kay very near or over the west-central
Baja California peninsula on Thursday and Friday. After that, the
weakening and increasingly shallow Kay is forecast to turn more
westward, and eventually southward, away from land as it becomes
steered by the flow on the south and east side of a low-level ridge
over the northeastern Pacific. There has been little change in the
track guidance since the previous advisory, and the new official
forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous
forecast.

Kay is a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive
area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern
Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is
likely to weaken before it makes landfall or moves very close to the
west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a
large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high
wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so
users should not focus on the exact forecast track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. As the center of Kay passes just offshore, heavy rainfall could
lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across the Baja
California peninsula and portions of mainland northwestern Mexico
through Saturday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding
is possible across Southern California, especially in and near the
peninsular ranges, and Southwest Arizona, Friday night into
Saturday.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the
west-central Baja California coast on Thursday and Thursday night,
and a hurricane warning is in effect for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are beginning over portions of the
Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected
to spread northward during the next day or so, where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 22.0N 113.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 23.8N 113.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 26.1N 114.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 28.2N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 29.8N 116.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 30.8N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 31.2N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 31.0N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z 29.0N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 072042
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
300 PM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022

...KAY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 113.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* San Jose De Las Palomas to Cabo San Quintin
* Cabo San Lucas northward along the entire east of Baja and then
southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Quintin to U.S./Mexico border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 113.0 West. Kay is moving toward
the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion should
continue into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is
expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California
peninsula this afternoon, and be near the west-central coast of the
Baja California peninsula Thursday and Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100
mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected.
However, Kay is expected to remain a large hurricane when it passes
near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area beginning on Thursday, and are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are spreading into
the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread
northward through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the
western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday?-?

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches

Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches

Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 4 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next few days. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 072033
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
2100 UTC WED SEP 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST OF BAJA AND THEN
SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN QUINTIN TO U.S./MEXICO BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 113.0W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 160SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 510SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 113.0W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 112.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.8N 113.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.1N 114.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 28.2N 115.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.8N 116.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 30.8N 118.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.2N 119.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 31.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 29.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 113.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 08/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 071756
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1200 PM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022

...KAY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 112.8W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* San Jose De Las Palomas to Cabo San Quintin
* Cabo San Lucas northward along the entire east of Baja and then
southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Quintin to U.S./Mexico border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 112.8 West. Kay is moving toward
the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion should
continue into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is
expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California
peninsula this afternoon, and be near the west-central coast of the
Baja California peninsula Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible this afternoon. Although
weakening is forecast to begin by Thursday, Kay is expected to
remain a large hurricane when it passes near the west-central coast
of the Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 971 mb (28.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area beginning on Thursday, and are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area beginning in the next few hours and are
forecast to spread northward through Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch on Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the
western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday?-?

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches

Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches

Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next few days. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 071510 CCA
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 13...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022

Corrected first Key Message

Kay appears to be on a strengthening trend. Satellite images
indicate that the hurricane has a large eye, with a diameter of
about 25 n mi, and a nearly symmetric eyewall. There are some dry
slots between the eyewall and rainbands, however. The subjective
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to
T5.0/90 kt, and the initial intensity is raised to 90 kt based on
that data. This intensity estimate is below the latest ADT values
from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, so it is possible that
Kay could be a little stronger. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is en route to investigate Kay this afternoon, and the data
the plane collects will be very helpful in assessing the intensity
and structure of the hurricane.

Kay will likely strengthen a little more, and it could become
a major hurricane while it remains in conducive environmental
conditions today. However, by early tomorrow, the hurricane is
expected to move over sub 26 C SSTs and move over progressively
cooler waters during the following few days. The cooler SSTs and
drier air should cause a steady weakening trend later this week
and this weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher
than the previous one in the short term, and lies at the high end of
the guidance during the first few days of the forecast.

The hurricane is moving north-northwestward, and that motion should
continue for the next couple of days taking the core of Kay very
near or over the west-central Baja California peninsula on Thursday
and Friday. After that time, when Kay moves close to northern Baja,
a turn to the left is expected as the shallow system becomes steered
by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. The
model guidance is in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track
forecast is essentially the same as the previous one and close to
the various consensus models.

Kay is a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive
area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern
Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is
likely to weaken before it makes landfall or moves very close to the
west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a
large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high
wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so
users should not focus on the exact forecast track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of
mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash and
urban flooding is possible across the peninsular ranges of southern
California and southwestern Arizona Friday night into Saturday.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the
west-central Baja California coast on Thursday and Thursday night,
and a hurricane warning is in effect for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are beginning over portions of the
Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected
to spread northward during the next day or so, where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 21.1N 112.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 22.7N 113.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 24.9N 114.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 27.2N 115.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 28.9N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 30.2N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 30.9N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 30.9N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1200Z 29.4N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 071600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 20.6N 112.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 112.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.7N 113.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.9N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.2N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 28.9N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 30.2N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 30.9N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 30.9N 121.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 29.4N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
071600Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 112.7W.
07SEP22. HURRICANE 12E (KAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 768 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072200Z, 080400Z, 081000Z AND 081600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 071444
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022

Kay appears to be on a strengthening trend. Satellite images
indicate that the hurricane has a large eye, with a diameter of
about 25 n mi, and a nearly symmetric eyewall. There are some dry
slots between the eyewall and rainbands, however. The subjective
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to
T5.0/90 kt, and the initial intensity is raised to 90 kt based on
that data. This intensity estimate is below the latest ADT values
from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, so it is possible that
Kay could be a little stronger. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is en route to investigate Kay this afternoon, and the data
the plane collects will be very helpful in assessing the intensity
and structure of the hurricane.

Kay will likely strengthen a little more, and it could become
a major hurricane while it remains in conducive environmental
conditions today. However, by early tomorrow, the hurricane is
expected to move over sub 26 C SSTs and move over progressively
cooler waters during the following few days. The cooler SSTs and
drier air should cause a steady weakening trend later this week
and this weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher
than the previous one in the short term, and lies at the high end of
the guidance during the first few days of the forecast.

The hurricane is moving north-northwestward, and that motion should
continue for the next couple of days taking the core of Kay very
near or over the west-central Baja California peninsula on Thursday
and Friday. After that time, when Kay moves close to northern Baja,
a turn to the left is expected as the shallow system becomes steered
by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. The
model guidance is in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track
forecast is essentially the same as the previous one and close to
the various consensus models.

Kay is a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive
area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern
Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is
likely to weaken before it makes landfall or moves very close to the
west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a
large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high
wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so
users should not focus on the exact forecast track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of
mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash
flooding is possible across the peninsular ranges of southern
California Friday night into Saturday morning.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the
west-central Baja California coast on Thursday and Thursday night,
and a hurricane warning is in effect for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are beginning over portions of the
Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected
to spread northward during the next day or so, where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 21.1N 112.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 22.7N 113.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 24.9N 114.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 27.2N 115.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 28.9N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 30.2N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 30.9N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 30.9N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1200Z 29.4N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 071443
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022

...KAY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 112.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula from San Jose De Las Palomas to Cabo San Quintin. The
Tropical Storm Warning has been extended on the east coast of Baja
California from Bahia de Los Angeles northward over the entire
northern coast of Gulf of California and southward along mainland
Mexico to Guaymas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued on the
west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Cabo San Quintin
northward to the U.S./Mexico border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* San Jose De Las Palomas to Cabo San Quintin
* Cabo San Lucas northward along the entire east of Baja and then
southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Quintin to U.S./Mexico border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 112.6 West. Kay is moving toward
the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion should
continue into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is
expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California
peninsula today, and be near the west-central coast of the Baja
California peninsula Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
today. Although weakening is forecast to begin by Thursday, Kay is
expected to remain a large hurricane when it passes near the
west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area beginning on Thursday, and are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area beginning later this morning and are
forecast to spread northward through Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch on Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the
western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday?-?

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches

Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches

Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next few days. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 071443
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
1500 UTC WED SEP 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN. THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED ON THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES NORTHWARD OVER THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWARD ALONG MAINLAND MEXICO TO
GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ON THE WEST COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM CABO SAN QUINTIN NORTHWARD TO
THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN QUINTIN TO U.S./MEXICO BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 112.6W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 160SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 480SE 330SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 112.6W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 112.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.7N 113.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.9N 114.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.2N 115.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 28.9N 116.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.2N 117.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.9N 118.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.9N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 29.4N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 112.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 071143
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
600 AM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022

...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF KAY BEGINNING TO REACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL BAJA ON
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 112.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Bahia De Los Angeles

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Bahia De Los Angeles to San Felipe
* North of San Jose De Las Palomas to Cabo San Quintin

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests north of the watch area on the Baja California peninsula
and along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should closely
monitor the progress of Kay as additional tropical storm watches
could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 112.3 West. Kay is moving toward
the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion should
continue into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is
expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California
peninsula today, and be near the west-central coast of the Baja
California peninsula Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast today. Although weakening is
forecast to begin by Thursday, Kay is expected to remain a large
hurricane when it passes near the west-central coast of the Baja
California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area beginning on Thursday, and are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area beginning later this morning and are
forecast to spread northward through Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch areas Thursday
night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Kay makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce rainfall totals of...

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches
Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches
Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches
through Saturday morning

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast and into the Gulf of California during the next few
days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 071000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 19.7N 111.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 111.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.6N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.7N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.0N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.9N 115.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 29.7N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 30.8N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 31.2N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 30.1N 121.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
071000Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 112.1W.
07SEP22. HURRICANE 12E (KAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 830 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071600Z, 072200Z, 080400Z AND 081000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 070856
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
300 AM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022

Kay appears to be slightly better organized in satellite imagery
this morning with an eye that has become a little better defined
and a convective band with cloud tops as cold as -70 to -80C
wrapping around the center. There is a larger-than-normal spread
between the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates this morning
so there is more uncertainty regarding the hurricane's initial
intensity than usual. The initial intensity has been raised to
85 kt, commensurate with the recent increase in organization. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Kay this afternoon.

Kay is located over sea surface temperatures of 28-29 degrees
Celsius, and the vertical wind shear has decreased over the past 24
hours and become less than 10 kt over the storm. These conditions
should allow for some strengthening today. By tonight, Kay will be
moving over decreasing SSTs, and a weakening trend should begin
shortly thereafter. However, Kay is expected to remain a hurricane
when it passes near the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula on
Thursday and Thursday night. After that time, sharply decreasing
SSTs should produce a faster rate of weakening, and Kay is forecast
to become a post-tropical cyclone after it passes near northern Baja
California by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast is above most of
the guidance at 12 hours, and then closely follows the SHIPS model
during the weakening phase of the forecast.

Kay has turned north-northwestward and is moving 330/10 kt. A
ridge to the east of Kay should steer the storm north-northwestward
during the next few days. This will take the core of the hurricane
near the west-central coast of Baja California on Thursday and
Friday. After that time, low-level ridging to the north of Kay
should cause it to turn westward as it weakens. The GFS and its
ensemble mean remain along the east side of the guidance envelope
while the ECMWF is closer to the center. The NHC track lies
between those typically reliable models and is between the TVCE
and HFIP consensus aids. The updated track is slightly to the right
of the previous advisory.

Kay is a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive
area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern
Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is
likely to weaken before it makes its closest approach to the
west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a
large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high
wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so
users should not focus on the exact forecast track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of
mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash
flooding is possible across the peninsular ranges of Southern
California Friday night into Saturday morning.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the
west-central Baja California coast on Thursday and Thursday night,
and a hurricane warning is in effect for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
Baja California peninsula beginning this morning, where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 20.2N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 21.6N 112.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 23.7N 113.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 26.0N 114.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 27.9N 115.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 29.7N 116.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 30.8N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 31.2N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0600Z 30.1N 121.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 070855
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
300 AM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BEGINNING THIS MORNING...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 112.0W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from North
of Punta Abreojos northward to San Jose De Las Palomas.

The Tropical Storm Warning along the east coast of the Baja
California peninsula has been extended northward to Bahia De Los
Angeles.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the east coast of the
Baja California peninsula from north of Bahia De Los Angeles to San
Felipe, and along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula
from north of San Jose De Las Palomas to Cabo San Quintin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Bahia De Los Angeles

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Bahia De Los Angeles to San Felipe
* North of San Jose De Las Palomas to Cabo San Quintin

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests north of the watch area on the Baja California peninsula
and along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should closely
monitor the progress of Kay as additional tropical storm watches
could be required this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 112.0 West. Kay is moving toward
the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion should
continue into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is
expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California
peninsula today, and be near the west-central coast of the Baja
California peninsula Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast today.
Weakening is forecast to begin by Thursday, but Kay is forecast to
remain a hurricane when it passes near the west-central coast of
the Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions expected within the Hurricane Warning
area beginning on Thursday, and are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area beginning this morning and are forecast
to spread northward through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch areas on Thursday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Kay makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce rainfall totals of...

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches
Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches
Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches
through Saturday morning

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast and into the Gulf of California during the next few
days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 070855
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
0900 UTC WED SEP 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM NORTH
OF PUNTA ABREOJOS NORTHWARD TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN
FELIPE...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
FROM NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE
* NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
COULD BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 112.0W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 160SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 510SE 330SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 112.0W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 111.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.6N 112.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.7N 113.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 27.9N 115.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.7N 116.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 30.8N 118.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 31.2N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.1N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 112.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 07/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 070537
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1200 AM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022

...KAY EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BEGINNING LATER THIS
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 111.8W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Eugenia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Santa Rosalia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Santa Rosalia to Bahia De Los Angeles
* North of Punta Eugenia to San Jose De Las Palomas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Tropical storm and hurricane warnings are likely to be required for
portions of the watch area later this morning. Interests north of
the watch area on the Baja California peninsula and along the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Kay as additional tropical storm watches could be
required this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 111.8 West. Kay is moving toward
the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected today, and this motion should continue
into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected
to pass to the west of the southern Baja California peninsula
today, and be near the west-central coast of the Baja California
peninsula Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Kay
could become a major hurricane during that time. Weakening is
forecast to begin by Thursday, but Kay is forecast to remain a
strong hurricane when it passes near the Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area
beginning Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area beginning this morning and are forecast
to spread northward tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Thursday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Kay makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce rainfall totals of...

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches
Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches
Southernmost California: 1 to 3 inches with maxima of 5 inches
through Saturday morning

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding across the above
areas, including landslides across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja
California peninsula coast and into the Gulf of California during
the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 070411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.09.2022

HURRICANE EARL ANALYSED POSITION : 24.6N 65.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2022 24.6N 65.9W MODERATE
12UTC 07.09.2022 25.5N 65.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2022 27.0N 65.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2022 28.5N 65.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2022 30.3N 64.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2022 32.5N 62.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2022 35.4N 58.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 10.09.2022 39.2N 53.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2022 42.1N 47.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2022 44.6N 42.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 12.09.2022 45.2N 42.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2022 45.7N 40.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2022 45.5N 37.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE DANIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 42.5N 39.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2022 42.5N 39.9W MODERATE
12UTC 07.09.2022 43.5N 37.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2022 45.2N 33.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2022 47.3N 31.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2022 49.4N 29.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2022 51.7N 30.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2022 50.0N 34.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2022 46.4N 30.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2022 45.2N 24.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2022 44.2N 18.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2022 43.4N 14.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2022 45.4N 10.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE KAY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 111.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2022 18.9N 111.4W STRONG
12UTC 07.09.2022 20.6N 112.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2022 22.6N 113.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2022 24.7N 114.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2022 26.9N 115.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2022 28.3N 117.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2022 29.5N 118.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2022 30.3N 120.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2022 30.5N 121.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2022 30.8N 123.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2022 30.6N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2022 29.5N 125.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2022 28.4N 125.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 35.0N 61.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.09.2022 35.0N 61.1W WEAK
12UTC 11.09.2022 32.7N 59.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2022 31.7N 58.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2022 31.5N 57.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2022 31.7N 57.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.7N 43.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.09.2022 15.7N 43.0W WEAK
00UTC 13.09.2022 17.7N 45.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 12.9N 17.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2022 13.2N 18.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070411

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 19.0N 111.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 111.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.6N 112.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.5N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.7N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.8N 115.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 28.5N 116.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 30.0N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 31.1N 120.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 30.8N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 111.8W.
07SEP22. HURRICANE 12E (KAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 877 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071000Z, 071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 070243
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
900 PM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022

Kay looks slightly better organized on satellite imagery with a
broad eye-like feature surrounded by curved bands of strong
convection. Upper-level outflow is strong over all but the
northwestern portion of the circulation. The current intensity is
bumped up slightly to 80 kt which is a compromise between highly
varied subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. It should be
noted there is a greater than usual amount of uncertainty in the
advisory intensity.

Vertical wind shear on Kay is forecast to be low, and the system is
expected to remain in a fairly moist mid-level air mass for the next
few days. These factors should lead to further short-term
strengthening. However, SSTs will be decreasing significantly in 24
to 36 hours, which will likely result in a weakening trend
commencing on Thursday. Later in the forecast period, very cool
waters should result in Kay becoming a post-tropical cyclone after
it passes near the northern Baja California in around 96 hours.
This is consistent with simulated satellite imagery from the global
models that show little or no associated deep convection around that
time. The official intensity forecast is above the guidance
models, especially for the first half of the forecast period.

Kay continues northwestward, moving at about 320/11 kt. There is
little change to the track forecast reasoning. A ridge to the
northeast of the cyclone is expected to result in a mostly
north-northwestward motion for the next few days. This should bring
the core of the of Kay very near the west-central Baja California
coast on Thursday and Friday. Later in the forecast period,
low-level ridging is expected to cause the weakening cyclone to turn
westward. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and
also close to the corrected multi-model consensus.

Kay is a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive
area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern
Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is
likely to weaken before it makes its closest approach to the
west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a
large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high
wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so
users should not focus on the exact forecast track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Kay could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across portions of the Baja California peninsula and
mainland northwestern Mexico through Friday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning, where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible along portions of the
west-central Baja California coast on Thursday, where a hurricane
watch has been issued. Additional tropical storm watches and
warnings for the northern Baja California peninsula could be
required later tonight and Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 19.5N 111.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 20.6N 112.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 22.5N 113.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 24.7N 114.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 26.8N 115.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 28.5N 116.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 30.0N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 31.1N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 12/0000Z 30.8N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 070242
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
900 PM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022

...KAY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND BRING STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 111.7W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Eugenia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Santa Rosalia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Santa Rosalia to Bahia De Los Angeles
* North of Punta Eugenia to San Jose De Las Palomas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests north of the watch area on the Baja California peninsula
should closely monitor the progress of Kay as additional tropical
storm watches could be required later tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 111.7 West. Kay is moving toward
the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected on Wednesday, and this motion should
continue into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is
expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California
peninsula on Wednesday, and be near the west-central coast of the
Baja California peninsula Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Kay
could become a major hurricane during that time. Weakening is
forecast to begin by Thursday, but Kay is forecast to remain a
strong hurricane when it passes near the Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area
beginning Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area beginning tomorrow morning and are
forecast to spread northward tomorrow night and Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on
Thursday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Kay makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 10
inches with isolated maxima of 15 inches across the central portions
of the Baja California peninsula through Friday. Rainfall totals of
3 to 5 inches with maxima of 8 inches are possible across the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. Rainfall totals
of 2 to 4 inches are possible across northwestern portions of
mainland Mexico. These rainfall amounts could lead to flash
flooding, including landslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja
California coast and into the Gulf of California during the next
few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 070242
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
0300 UTC WED SEP 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO SANTA ROSALIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES
* NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 111.7W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT.......180NE 140SE 80SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 480SE 330SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 111.7W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.6N 112.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.7N 114.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.8N 115.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 28.5N 116.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 31.1N 120.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 30.8N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 111.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 07/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 062354
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
600 PM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022

...KAY EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BEGINNING TOMORROW
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 111.5W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Eugenia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Santa Rosalia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Santa Rosalia to Bahia De Los Angeles
* North of Punta Eugenia to San Jose De Las Palomas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests north of the watch area on the Baja California peninsula
should closely monitor the progress of Kay as additional tropical
storm watches could be required tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 111.5 West. Kay is moving toward
the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion should
continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is
expected on Wednesday, and this motion should continue into Friday.
On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to pass to the
west of the southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday, and be
near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula
Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Kay
could become a major hurricane during that time. Weakening is
forecast to begin by Thursday, but Kay is forecast to remain a
strong hurricane when it passes near the Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area
beginning Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area beginning Wednesday morning and are
forecast to spread northward Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on
Thursday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Kay makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 10
inches with isolated maxima of 15 inches across the central portions
of the Baja California peninsula through Friday. Rainfall totals of
3 to 5 inches with maxima of 8 inches are possible across the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. Rainfall totals
of 2 to 4 inches are possible across northwestern portions of
mainland Mexico. These rainfall amounts could lead to flash
flooding, including landslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja
California coast and into the Gulf of California during the next
few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 062200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 18.4N 110.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 110.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.8N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.6N 113.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.6N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.9N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.8N 115.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 29.3N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 30.7N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 30.5N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
062200Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 111.2W.
06SEP22. HURRICANE 12E (KAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 925 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070400Z, 071000Z, 071600Z
AND 072200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 062045
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022

Kay continues to be relatively steady in strength. The Air
Force Hurricane Hunters so far have found peak flight-level winds
of 75 kt, and the initial intensity is held at 75 kt pending
the completion of the reconnaissance mission. The minimum pressure
is estimated to be 978 mb based on the aircraft data. The center
of Kay is currently over Socorro Island, and the island is about to
experience strong winds on the system's east side. The aircraft
data and a recent ASCAT-B pass indicate that Kay is a large
hurricane, with its tropical-storm- force winds extending outward
about 200 miles from the center. Kay is also producing a large area
of high seas, with swells currently affecting portions of
southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula.

Kay is moving northwestward and it continues moving along the
previous forecast track. A northwest to north-northwest
motion is expected during the next few days, which will likely
bring the core of Kay very near the west-central Baja California
coast on Thursday and Friday. After that time, a turn to the left
is predicted when the system is steered by a low- to mid-level
ridge over the western United States. The GFS has shifted a bit to
the right this cycle, but the other models have generally held
steady. Little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast
and this one lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

The hurricane is still feeling some effects from moderate northerly
vertical wind shear, but the models suggest that the shear should
decrease during the next day or so. The anticipated more conducive
upper-level wind pattern combined with warm SSTs and a moist
environment should allow Kay to strengthen during the next 24-36
hours, and it could become a major hurricane during that time.
Thereafter, sharply cooler SSTs and drier air should end the
opportunity for strengthening and induce steady weakening. Kay is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days when it
is forecast to be over quite cool SSTs of 21-22 C. The NHC
intensity forecast is near or a little above the high end of the
guidance, especially during the first 36-48 hours.

Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes its closest
approach to the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is
forecast to remain a large and dangerous hurricane through that
time. In addition, high wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will
extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact
forecast track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Kay could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across portions of the Baja California peninsula
through Friday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning, where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible along portions of the
west-central Baja California coast on Thursday, where a hurricane
watch has been issued. Additional tropical storm watches and
warnings for the northern Baja California peninsula could be
required tonight and Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 18.8N 111.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 19.8N 112.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 21.6N 113.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 23.6N 113.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 25.9N 114.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 27.8N 115.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 29.3N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 30.7N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 30.5N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 062044
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022

...HURRICANE WATCH AND NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 111.0W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula from Puerto Cortes to Punta
Eugenia.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to
Punta Abreojos on the west coast and to Santa Rosalia on the east
coast.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Punta Eugenia to
San Jose De Las Palomas on the west coast and from Santa Rosalia to
Bahia De Los Angeles on the east coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Eugenia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Santa Rosalia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Santa Rosalia to Bahia De Los Angeles
* North of Punta Eugenia to San Jose De Las Palomas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests north of the watch area on the Baja California peninsula
should closely monitor the progress of Kay as additional tropical
storm watches could be required tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 111.0 West. Kay is moving toward
the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion should
continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is
expected on Wednesday, and this motion should continue into Friday.
On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to pass to the
west of the southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday, and be
near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula
Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Kay
could become a major hurricane during that time. Weakening is
forecast to begin by Thursday, but Kay is forecast to remain a
strong hurricane when it passes near the Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km). A weather station on Socorro Island recently reported a
wind gust of 50 mph (80 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area
beginning Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area beginning Wednesday morning and are
forecast to spread northward Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on
Thursday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Kay makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 10
inches with isolated maxima of 15 inches across the central portions
of the Baja California peninsula through Friday. Rainfall totals of
3 to 5 inches with maxima of 8 inches possible across the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4
inches possible across northwestern portions of mainland Mexico.
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja
California coast and into the Gulf of California during the next
few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 062043
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
2100 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA
EUGENIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO
PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST COAST AND TO SANTA ROSALIA ON THE EAST
COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO
BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES ON THE EAST COAST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO SANTA ROSALIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES
* NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 111.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT.......180NE 140SE 80SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 480SE 330SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 111.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.8N 112.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 120SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.6N 113.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.6N 113.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 25.9N 114.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 27.8N 115.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.3N 117.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 30.7N 119.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 30.5N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 111.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 07/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 061733
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1200 PM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022

...KAY PRODUCING ROUGH SURF ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ENROUTE...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 110.5W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Evaristo southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Evaristo northward to Santa Rosalia
* North of Cabo San Lazaro northward to Punta Abreojos

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests north of the watch area on the Baja California peninsula
should closely monitor the progress of Kay as hurricane or tropical
storm watches could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 110.5 West. Kay is moving toward
the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion should
continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is
expected on Wednesday, and this motion should continue into Friday.
On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to pass to the
west of the southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday, and be
near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula
Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Kay
could become a major hurricane during that time. Weakening is
forecast to begin by Thursday, but Kay is forecast to remain a
strong hurricane when it passes near the Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A weather station in Socorro Island recently
reported a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the southern Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday
morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
in the southern Baja California peninsula by late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja
California coast and into the Gulf of California during the next
few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall,
with isolated storm total amounts of 12 inches, across portions of
western Mexico, including the Baja California peninsula, through
Thursday night. These rainfall amounts could lead to flash
flooding, including landslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 061600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 17.6N 109.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 109.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.1N 111.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.7N 112.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.5N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.6N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.4N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 28.0N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 30.2N 118.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 30.5N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
061600Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 110.2W.
06SEP22. HURRICANE 12E (KAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 993 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z, 071000Z AND 071600Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 061446
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022

Satellite data indicate that Kay has been relatively steady in
strength during the past several hours. A ragged eye feature has
occasionally been apparent, and microwave data show that the eyewall
and rainbands are most organized on the south side. The latest
satellite intensity estimates range from 65 to 77 kt, and based on
that data, the initial intensity is held at 75 kt. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Kay later
today. It should be noted that Kay is a fairly large hurricane with
its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend outward up to 175
miles from the center. Kay is also producing a large area of high
seas, with swells currently affecting portions of southwestern
Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula.

Kay is moving northwestward at 13 kt and it appears to be moving
along the previous forecast track. The track models have barely
changed this cycle and continue to show a northwest to
north-northwest motion continuing for the next few days as the
hurricane moves in the flow on the western periphery of a ridge over
Mexico. This should take the core of Kay very near the west-central
Baja California peninsula on Thursday and Friday. After that time,
a turn to the left is predicted as the system is steered by a low-
to mid-level ridge over the western United States. The NHC track
forecast is basically the same as the previous one and lies closest
to the HCCA consensus model.

The hurricane is still feeling some effects from moderate northerly
vertical wind shear, but the models suggest that the shear should
decrease during the next day or so. The anticipated more conducive
upper-level wind pattern combined with warm SSTs and a moist
environment should allow Kay to strengthen during the next 36 hours,
and it could become a major hurricane during that time. Thereafter,
sharply cooler SSTs and drier air should end the opportunity for
strengthening and induce steady weakening. Kay is expected to
become a post-tropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days when it is forecast
to be over quite cool SSTs of 21-22 C. The NHC intensity forecast
lies near the high end of the guidance, especially during the first
48 hours.

Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes its closest
approach to the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is
forecast to remain a large and strong hurricane at that time. In
addition, winds, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the
center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Kay could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across portions of western Mexico, including the Baja
California peninsula, through Thursday night.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
southern Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect.

3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain, there is increasing risk of significant wind,
surf, and rainfall impacts across the central portion of the Baja
California peninsula later this week. A tropical storm or hurricane
watch could be issued for that region later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 18.0N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 19.1N 111.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 20.7N 112.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 22.5N 113.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 24.6N 114.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 26.4N 115.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 28.0N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 30.2N 118.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 30.5N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 061445
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022

...KAY PRODUCING ROUGH SURF ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN SOUTHERN BAJA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 110.0W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch
northward on the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from
Loreto to Santa Rosalia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Evaristo southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Evaristo northward to Santa Rosalia
* North of Cabo San Lazaro northward to Punta Abreojos

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests north of the watch area on the Baja California peninsula
should closely monitor the progress of Kay as hurricane or tropical
storm watches could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 110.0 West. Kay is moving toward
the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion should
continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is
expected on Wednesday, and this motion should continue into
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected
to pass to the west of the southern Baja California peninsula on
Wednesday, and be near the west-central coast of the Baja
California peninsula Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Kay
could become a major hurricane during that time. Weakening is
forecast to begin by Thursday, but Kay is forecast to remain a
strong hurricane when it passes near the Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts in outer rainbands are likely
to continue along the coast of southwestern Mexico today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the
southern Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the
southern Baja California peninsula by late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
Large swells are beginning to reach the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula and are expected to spread northward and
into the Gulf of California during the next few days. These swells
will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall,
with isolated storm total amounts of 12 inches, across portions of
western Mexico, including the Baja California peninsula, through
Thursday night. These rainfall amounts could lead to flash
flooding, including landslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 061445
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
NORTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM
LORETO TO SANTA ROSALIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO SANTA ROSALIA
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 270SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.1N 111.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.7N 112.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.6N 114.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 190SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.4N 115.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 28.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 30.2N 118.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.5N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 110.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 06/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 061131
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
600 AM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 109.6W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Evaristo southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Evaristo northward to Loreto
* North of Cabo San Lazaro northward to Punta Abreojos

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests north of the watch area on the Baja California peninsula
should closely monitor the progress of Kay as hurricane or tropical
storm watches could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 109.6 West. Kay is moving toward
the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is
expected on Wednesday, and this motion should continue into
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected
move to the west of the southern Baja California peninsula on
Wednesday, and approach the west-central coast of the Baja
California peninsula Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Kay
could become a major hurricane during that time. Weakening is
forecast to begin by Thursday, but Kay is forecast to remain a
strong hurricane when it passes near the Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts in outer rainbands are likely
to continue along the coast of southwestern Mexico today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the
southern Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the
southern Baja California peninsula by late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
Large swells are beginning to reach the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula and are expected to spread northward and
into the Gulf of California during the next few days. These swells
will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall,
with isolated storm total amounts of 12 inches, across portions of
western Mexico, including the Baja California peninsula, through
Thursday night. These rainfall amounts could lead to flash
flooding, including landslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 061000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 16.6N 108.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 108.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.0N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.4N 111.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.1N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.1N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.1N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.8N 115.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 29.6N 117.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 30.3N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
061000Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 109.1W.
06SEP22. HURRICANE 12E (KAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1073 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
060600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061600Z, 062200Z, 070400Z AND
071000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 060848
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022

The satellite presentation of Kay has improved within the past
couple of hours. A curved band with cloud top temperatures below
-85C has wrapped around the center and has formed a ragged
banding-type eye in infrared imagery. The latest subjective and
objective Dvorak satellite estimates are all around 65 kt, but with
the earlier reconnaissance data supporting a higher intensity and
the recent improvement in structure, the initial intensity has been
raised to 75 kt. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate Kay this afternoon.

The much-anticipated northwestward turn appears to have occurred,
and the initial motion estimate is now 310/11 kt. Kay is forecast
to move on a northwestward heading during the next 24 to 36 hours
around a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. After that time,
the hurricane is forecast to turn north-northwestward, bringing the
core near the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula in 60-72
hours. Some of the dynamical track models including the HWRF,
GFS and GFS ensemble mean, have made a noticeable eastward shift
over the past few cycles, while the ECMWF has changed little. The
updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly east of the
previous advisory out of respect for the aforementioned models, but
it is not quite as far east as the latest GFS, GFS ensemble mean or
HFIP corrected consensus. The forecast is a blend of the ECMWF and
GFS and is just east of the simple consensus aids.

Kay's outflow remains somewhat constricted over the northeastern
quadrant due to moderate northeasterly shear. However, the shear
is forecast to relax over the next 24 to 36 hours, and given the
recent improvement in organization, additional strengthening is
expected during that time. The NHC forecast has been raised from
the previous advisory and is near the upper-end of the guidance in
best agreement with the SHIPS model. After 36 hours, Kay will be
moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures and weakening
should begin. Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes
its closest approach to the west-central coast of the Baja
peninsula, it is forecast to remain a large and strong hurricane at
that time. In addition, winds and rainfall impacts will extend far
form the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast
track.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the southern portions of the Baja California peninsula. Additional
tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings could be necessary
for portions of Baja California later today.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Kay could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across portions of western Mexico, including the Baja
California peninsula, through Thursday night.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
southern Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect.

3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain, there is increasing risk of significant wind,
surf, and rainfall impacts across the central portion of the Baja
California peninsula later this week. A tropical storm or hurricane
watch could be issued for that region later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 17.0N 108.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 18.0N 110.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 19.4N 111.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 21.1N 113.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 23.1N 113.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 25.1N 114.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 26.8N 115.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 29.6N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 30.3N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 060847
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022

...KAY TURNS NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 108.9W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning along
the east coast of the Baja California peninsula south of San
Evaristo, and along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula
south of Cabo San Lazaro.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Evaristo southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Evaristo northward to Loreto
* North of Cabo San Lazaro northward to Punta Abreojos

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests north of the watch area on the Baja California peninsula
should closely monitor the progress of Kay as hurricane or tropical
storm watches could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 108.9 West. Kay is moving toward
the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is
expected on Wednesday, and this motion should continue into
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to
remain southwest and west of southwestern Mexico today, then move
to the west of the southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday,
and approach the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 36 hours, and Kay could become a major hurricane during that
time. Weakening is forecast to begin by Thursday, but Kay is
forecast to remain a strong hurricane when it passes near the
Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts in outer rainbands are likely
near the coast of southwestern Mexico today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area in the southern
Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the southern Baja
California peninsula by late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Large swells
will reach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
this morning and are expected to spread northward and into the Gulf
of California during the next few days. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall,
with isolated storm total amounts of 12 inches, across portions of
western Mexico, including the Baja California peninsula, through
Thursday night. These rainfall amounts could lead to flash
flooding, including landslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 060846
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
0900 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF SAN
EVARISTO...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO LORETO
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.9W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.9W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 110.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.4N 111.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.1N 113.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.1N 113.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 190SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 25.1N 114.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.8N 115.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 29.6N 117.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 30.3N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 108.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 06/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 060538
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1200 AM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022

...KAY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS, GUSTY WINDS, AND ROUGH SURF CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 108.7W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Loreto southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Punta Abreojos

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests north of the watch area on the Baja California peninsula
should closely monitor the progress of Kay as hurricane or tropical
storm watches could be required later today. Tropical storm
warnings could also be required for portions of the watch area
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 108.7 West. Kay is moving toward
the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected later this morning, followed by a
north-northwestward motion tonight through Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to remain southwest
and west of southwestern Mexico today, then move to the west of the
southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Kay is expected to be a strong hurricane when it passes near the
Baja California peninsula during the middle of the week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts in outer rainbands are likely
near the coast of southwestern Mexico today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in the southern Baja
California peninsula by Wednesday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Large swells are
likely to reach the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula later this morning and are expected to spread northward
and into the Gulf of California through midweek. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall,
with isolated storm total amounts of 10 inches, across portions of
the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night.
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 15.9N 107.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 107.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.1N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.3N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.9N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.7N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.7N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 25.6N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.5N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 30.0N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060400Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 108.3W.
06SEP22. HURRICANE 12E (KAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1130 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 060000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061000Z, 061600Z, 062200Z
AND 070400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (JAVIER) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN31 PHNC).
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 060250
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 05 2022

Kay was upgraded to a hurricane earlier today based on valuable data
that was received from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters just before
the previous advisory issuance. The aircraft reported dropsonde data
that supported a minimum pressure around 980 mb, along with
flight-level winds of 85 kt at 850 mb and SFMR winds up to 71 kt in
the eastern portion of the cyclone. There were some earlier hints of
a ragged eye trying to emerge in visible imagery, but the center is
still obscured by a small central dense overcast. The inner core
structure of the cyclone does not appear to have improved much based
on a couple of recent passive microwave overpasses, as some dry air
has wrapped into the western and southern portions of the
circulation. Based on the earlier aircraft data, the intensity of
Kay is held at 70 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 285/9 kt. The track
guidance for Kay over the next few days remains in good agreement.
Kay is expected to turn northwestward on Tuesday and then
north-northwestward by early Wednesday while moving toward or to the
west of the Baja California peninsula. While the core of the storm
is still forecast to remain offshore, the large wind field could
bring tropical-storm-force winds to the southern portion of Baja
California by early Wednesday. The hurricane is forecast to make its
closest approach to the west-central portion of Baja California late
Thursday into Friday. The official NHC forecast lies very close to
the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and has been nudged
slightly to the right of the previous one. It is noted that the GFS
and ECMWF still lie on the eastern edge of the guidance envelope.

Kay has significantly strengthened today despite some moderate
northeasterly deep-layer shear diagnosed by the SHIPS guidance over
the system. This shear is forecast to diminish in a day or so, while
Kay remains over very warm SSTs and in a moist and unstable
environment. Thus, more strengthening is anticipated and Kay could
approach major hurricane strength in 36-48 h. The official NHC
forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies slightly above
the IVCN aid and closer to HCCA. By early Thursday, drier air and
cooler SSTs at higher latitudes will cause Kay to begin weakening.
The cyclone is forecast to lose its organized convection and become
a post-tropical low by day 5.

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch
northward from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos. Additional
tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings could be necessary
for portions of Baja California later tonight or on Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gusts to tropical-storm-force and rough surf along the coast of
southwestern Mexico are expected through Tuesday. In addition,
heavy rainfall from Kay could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across portions of the Mexican Riviera and western
Mexico through Wednesday night.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the southern Baja
California peninsula by early Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm
Watch has been issued.

3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain, there is increasing risk of significant wind,
surf, and rainfall impacts across the central portion of the Baja
California peninsula later this week. A tropical storm or hurricane
watch could be issued for that region by Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 16.0N 108.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 17.1N 109.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 18.3N 111.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 19.9N 112.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 21.7N 113.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 23.7N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 25.6N 115.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 28.5N 116.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 30.0N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 060248
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 05 2022

...KAY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS, GUSTY WINDS, AND ROUGH SURF CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 108.1W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch
northward from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Loreto southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Punta Abreojos

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests north of the watch area in Baja California should closely
monitor the progress of Kay as hurricane or tropical storm watches
could be required later tonight or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 108.1 West. Kay is moving toward
the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected on Tuesday, followed by a north-northwestward
motion Tuesday night through Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Kay is expected to remain southwest and west of
southwestern Mexico through Tuesday, then move to the west of the
southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Kay is expected to be a strong hurricane when it passes near the
Baja California peninsula during the middle of the week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts in outer rainbands are likely
near the coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the southern Baja
California peninsula by early Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Large swells are
likely to reach the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula on Tuesday and are expected to spread northward and into
the Gulf of California through midweek. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall,
with isolated storm total amounts of 10 inches, across portions of
the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night.
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 060247
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
0300 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
NORTHWARD FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LORETO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.1W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.1W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.1N 109.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.3N 111.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.9N 112.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.7N 113.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 200SE 170SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.7N 114.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.6N 115.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 140SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 28.5N 116.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 30.0N 120.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 108.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 06/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 052345
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
600 PM MDT Mon Sep 05 2022

...KAY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MORE EARLY THIS WEEK...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS AND LARGE SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 107.8W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Loreto southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Puerto San Andresito

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests north of the watch area in Baja California should closely
monitor the progress of Kay as hurricane or tropical storm watches
could be required tonight or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 107.8 West. Kay is moving toward
the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a northwest to
north-northwest motion by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Kay is expected to remain southwest and west of
southwestern Mexico through Tuesday, then move to the west of the
southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through midweek.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts in outer rainbands are likely
near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the
southern Baja California peninsula by early Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Large swells are
likely to reach the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula on Tuesday and are expected to spread northward and into
the Gulf of California later this week. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall,
with isolated storm total amounts of 10 inches, across portions of
the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night.
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 052200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 12E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 15.4N 106.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 106.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.2N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.5N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.8N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.5N 113.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.4N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.5N 114.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.8N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 29.6N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
052200Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 107.5W.
05SEP22. HURRICANE 12E (KAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1177 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z
IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060400Z, 061000Z, 061600Z AND 062200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (JAVIER) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC).
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 052100
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 05 2022

Satellite images indicate that banding features have become better
defined during the past several hours. The low-level center is now
more embedded in the deep convection, and Kay has strengthened
significantly. An ASCAT pass from around 16Z showed peak winds in
the 50-55 kt range on the system's east side, and the 18Z Dvorak
estimates were both 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Kay and the aircraft
recently reported a minimum pressure of 981 mb, which is notably
lower than previously estimated. The aircraft also measured
maximum SFMR and flight-level winds to support increasing the
intensity to 70 kt.

The storm continues to move westward, but at a slightly slower pace
of around 10 kt. The model guidance remains in fairly good agreement
that a turn to the west-northwest is likely to begin tonight
followed by a northwestward motion by Tuesday night. Although this
should take the core of Kay well to the west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula, tropical storm conditions are
possible there by early Wednesday given its expansive wind field.
Kay will likely be very near the west-central portion of the
peninsula on Thursday and Friday, and hurricane watches could be
required for that region tonight or tomorrow. After that time, a
turn to the west seems likely as Kay weakens and is steered by a
low- to mid-level ridge building over the southwestern United
States. The NHC track forecast is a little to the south of the
previous one in the short term, which is based on the initial motion
and position, but is otherwise largely unchanged.

Steady strengthening is expected to continue during the next couple
of days as Kay remains over warm SSTs and embedded in a moist air
mass. In addition, the storm is forecast to move into a lower wind
shear environment in 36 to 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is
near the high end of the model guidance. Beyond a couple of days,
however, progressively cooler SSTs and a drier air mass should end
the strengthening trend and induce steady weakening.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gusts to tropical-storm-force and rough surf along the coast of
southwestern Mexico are expected through Tuesday. In addition,
heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including landslides,
across portions of the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through
Wednesday night.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the southern
Baja California peninsula by early Wednesday, where a Tropical
Storm Watch has been issued.

3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity
forecasts remain uncertain, there is increasing risk of significant
wind, surf, and rainfall impacts across the central portion of the
Baja California peninsula. A tropical storm or hurricane watch
could be issued for that region tonight or Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 15.6N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 16.2N 108.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 17.5N 110.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 18.8N 112.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 20.5N 113.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 22.4N 113.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 24.5N 114.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 27.8N 116.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 29.6N 119.6W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 052058
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 05 2022

...KAY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 107.3W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Loreto southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Puerto San Andresito

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests north of the watch area in Baja California should closely
monitor the progress of Kay as hurricane or tropical storm watches
could be required tonight or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 107.3 West. Kay is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a northwest to
north-northwest motion by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Kay is expected to remain south and southwest of
southwestern Mexico through tonight, then move to the west of the
southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast through
midweek.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The minimum central pressure very recently reported by the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts in outer rainbands are
likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or
so. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
the southern Baja California peninsula by early Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Large swells are
likely to reach the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula on Tuesday and are expected to spread up the peninsula
and the Gulf of California later this week. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall,
with isolated storm total amounts of 10 inches, across portions of
the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night.
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 052056
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
2100 UTC MON SEP 05 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LORETO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
COULD BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 107.3W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 107.3W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 106.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.2N 108.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.8N 112.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.5N 113.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 22.4N 113.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 200SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.5N 114.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.8N 116.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 29.6N 119.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 107.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 06/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 051732
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1200 PM MDT Mon Sep 05 2022

...KAY STRENGTHENING JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ENROUTE...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 106.8W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Loreto southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Puerto San Andresito

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests north of the watch area in Baja California should closely
monitor the progress of Kay as Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches
could be required tonight or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 106.8 West. Kay is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a northwest to
north-northwest motion by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Kay is expected to remain south and southwest of
southwestern Mexico through tonight, then move toward the southern
Baja California peninsula on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Kay
is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or on Tuesday. Continued
strengthening is forecast through midweek.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts in outer rainbands are
likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or
so. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
the southern Baja California peninsula by early Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Large swells are
likely to reach the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula on Tuesday and are expected to spread up the peninsula
and the Gulf of California later this week. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall,
with isolated storm total amounts of 10 inches, across portions of
the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night.
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (KAY) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 106.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 106.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.2N 107.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.3N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.7N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.2N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.0N 113.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.0N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 27.5N 115.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 29.7N 119.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 106.6W.
05SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 12E (KAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1185 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (JAVIER) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC).
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED WTPN NUMBER IN THE MANOP
HEADER.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 051612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.09.2022

TROPICAL STORM EARL ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 65.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2022 0 21.1N 65.4W 1005 42
0000UTC 06.09.2022 12 22.6N 65.0W 1001 46
1200UTC 06.09.2022 24 23.6N 65.2W 1002 40
0000UTC 07.09.2022 36 24.6N 65.2W 1000 42
1200UTC 07.09.2022 48 25.9N 65.4W 995 42
0000UTC 08.09.2022 60 27.3N 65.3W 988 44
1200UTC 08.09.2022 72 28.5N 65.2W 982 46
0000UTC 09.09.2022 84 30.0N 64.2W 978 50
1200UTC 09.09.2022 96 31.5N 62.6W 977 52
0000UTC 10.09.2022 108 32.7N 59.8W 975 61
1200UTC 10.09.2022 120 33.9N 57.0W 970 66
0000UTC 11.09.2022 132 34.4N 55.1W 968 63
1200UTC 11.09.2022 144 34.7N 57.2W 971 70

HURRICANE DANIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 39.9N 44.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2022 0 39.9N 44.3W 976 59
0000UTC 06.09.2022 12 41.3N 43.1W 969 65
1200UTC 06.09.2022 24 41.9N 41.7W 967 71
0000UTC 07.09.2022 36 42.7N 39.6W 965 63
1200UTC 07.09.2022 48 43.6N 37.5W 963 60
0000UTC 08.09.2022 60 44.8N 34.3W 965 56
1200UTC 08.09.2022 72 46.4N 31.4W 972 50
0000UTC 09.09.2022 84 48.4N 29.8W 974 42
1200UTC 09.09.2022 96 50.3N 29.3W 979 40
0000UTC 10.09.2022 108 50.3N 31.6W 982 44
1200UTC 10.09.2022 120 47.2N 27.7W 986 42
0000UTC 11.09.2022 132 48.8N 22.3W 985 32
1200UTC 11.09.2022 144 49.1N 18.6W 988 31

TROPICAL STORM KAY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 106.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2022 0 15.4N 106.2W 994 39
0000UTC 06.09.2022 12 15.8N 107.8W 992 43
1200UTC 06.09.2022 24 17.4N 110.1W 992 44
0000UTC 07.09.2022 36 18.3N 112.5W 991 44
1200UTC 07.09.2022 48 19.4N 114.1W 990 45
0000UTC 08.09.2022 60 20.9N 115.1W 989 47
1200UTC 08.09.2022 72 22.8N 116.1W 987 49
0000UTC 09.09.2022 84 24.0N 117.6W 984 48
1200UTC 09.09.2022 96 25.6N 118.1W 988 38
0000UTC 10.09.2022 108 26.6N 118.9W 991 33
1200UTC 10.09.2022 120 27.8N 120.0W 996 29
0000UTC 11.09.2022 132 28.4N 121.6W 1000 25
1200UTC 11.09.2022 144 28.2N 122.8W 1004 22

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 33.1N 179.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.09.2022 84 33.1N 179.5W 1009 32
1200UTC 09.09.2022 96 33.6N 179.1E 1009 32
0000UTC 10.09.2022 108 33.1N 174.8E 1008 27
1200UTC 10.09.2022 120 32.5N 171.7E 1008 24
0000UTC 11.09.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 12.3N 178.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.09.2022 132 12.2N 178.6W 1008 21
1200UTC 11.09.2022 144 11.7N 179.8W 1008 21

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 12.5N 40.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2022 144 12.5N 40.6W 1010 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051612

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 051612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.09.2022

TROPICAL STORM EARL ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 65.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.09.2022 21.1N 65.4W WEAK
00UTC 06.09.2022 22.6N 65.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2022 23.6N 65.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2022 24.6N 65.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2022 25.9N 65.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2022 27.3N 65.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2022 28.5N 65.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2022 30.0N 64.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2022 31.5N 62.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2022 32.7N 59.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2022 33.9N 57.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2022 34.4N 55.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2022 34.7N 57.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE DANIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 39.9N 44.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.09.2022 39.9N 44.3W STRONG
00UTC 06.09.2022 41.3N 43.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2022 41.9N 41.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2022 42.7N 39.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2022 43.6N 37.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2022 44.8N 34.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2022 46.4N 31.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2022 48.4N 29.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2022 50.3N 29.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2022 50.3N 31.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2022 47.2N 27.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2022 48.8N 22.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2022 49.1N 18.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM KAY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 106.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.09.2022 15.4N 106.2W MODERATE
00UTC 06.09.2022 15.8N 107.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2022 17.4N 110.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2022 18.3N 112.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2022 19.4N 114.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2022 20.9N 115.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2022 22.8N 116.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2022 24.0N 117.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2022 25.6N 118.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2022 26.6N 118.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2022 27.8N 120.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2022 28.4N 121.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2022 28.2N 122.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 33.1N 179.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.09.2022 33.1N 179.5W WEAK
12UTC 09.09.2022 33.6N 179.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2022 33.1N 174.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2022 32.5N 171.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 12.3N 178.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.09.2022 12.2N 178.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2022 11.7N 179.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 12.5N 40.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.09.2022 12.5N 40.6W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051612

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 051438
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
900 AM MDT Mon Sep 05 2022

Kay continues to produce very deep convection, but the storm is
asymmetric with its center estimated to be on the north side of the
main area of thunderstorms. The latest satellite intensity
estimates range from 45 to 55 kt, and based on that data, the
initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory. Kay is a
sprawling tropical storm with its outer rain bands extending as far
out as 300 n mi from the center. The northern rain bands are
affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico, where
tropical-storm-force wind gusts are likely occurring. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Kay later
today.

The storm is moving westward at 13 kt and continues to be steered by
a mid-level ridge to its north. The model guidance remains in
fairly good agreement that a turn to the west-northwest is likely to
begin tonight followed by a northwestward motion by Tuesday night.
Although this should take the core of Kay well to the west of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, tropical storm
conditions are possible there by early Wednesday given its expansive
wind field. Kay will likely be very near the west-central portion
of the peninsula on Thursday and Friday, and hurricane watches could
be required for that region later today or tomorrow. The spread in
the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members is basically the same as it was
yesterday and shows solutions spanning a region from over
central Baja to a few hundred miles west of the peninsula. A turn
back to the left is expected by the end of the forecast period due
to a mid-level ridge to its north. Overall, the NHC track forecast
has changed little this cycle and lies near the HCCA model and a
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF.

Kay is still experiencing moderate north-northeasterly shear, which
is causing its asymmetric cloud pattern. This shear is expected to
persist, which should prevent rapid intensification. Nonetheless,
given the warm SSTs and high mid-level moisture, continued steady
strengthening is likely to continue during the next couple of days
and Kay will likely become a hurricane tonight or on Tuesday. Beyond
a couple of days, progressively cooler SSTs and a drier air mass
should end the strengthening trend and induce steady weakening. The
NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies a
little above the HCCA and IVCN guidance, but below the latest SHIPS
output.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center of Kay is forecast to stay offshore of
southwest mainland Mexico, gusts to tropical-storm-force and
rough surf along the coast are expected through Tuesday. In
addition, heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across portions of the Mexican Riviera and western
Mexico through Wednesday night.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the southern
Baja California peninsula by early Wednesday, where a Tropical
Storm Watch has been issued.

3. Kay is expected to be a hurricane when it nears the central
portion of the Baja California peninsula later this week. While the
details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain, there is increasing risk of significant wind,
surf, and rainfall impacts there, and a tropical storm or hurricane
watch could be issued for that region later today or Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 15.8N 106.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 16.2N 107.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 17.3N 109.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 18.7N 111.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 20.2N 112.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 22.0N 113.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 24.0N 114.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 27.5N 115.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 29.7N 119.1W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 051438
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
900 AM MDT Mon Sep 05 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 106.4W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula from Loreto on
the east coast and Puerto San Andresito on the west coast southward.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Loreto southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Puerto San Andresito

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests north of the watch area in Baja California should closely
monitor the progress of Kay as Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches
could be required tonight or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 106.4 West. Kay is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a northwest to
north-northwest motion by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Kay is expected to pass south and southwest of
southwestern Mexico through tonight, then move toward the
southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Kay is forecast to become a
hurricane tonight or on Tuesday. Continued strengthening is
forecast through midweek.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts in outer rainbands are
likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or
so. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
the southern Baja California peninsula by early Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Large swells are
likely to reach the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula on Tuesday and are expected to spread up the peninsula
and the Gulf of California later this week. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall,
with isolated storm total amounts of 10 inches, across portions of
the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night.
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 051438
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
1500 UTC MON SEP 05 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LORETO ON
THE EAST COAST AND PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST SOUTHWARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LORETO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
COULD BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.4W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......180NE 100SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.4W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.2N 107.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.3N 109.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.7N 111.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.2N 112.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.0N 113.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 27.5N 115.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 29.7N 119.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 106.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 05/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 050857
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
400 AM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022

Deep convection has increased in a band around the southern and
eastern portions of the circulation overnight. A couple of ASCAT
passes from around 0345-0445 UTC revealed peak winds of 38-41 kt,
and a much larger wind field over the northeastern quadrant than
previous estimated. The ASCAT data, a TAFB Dvorak classification
of T3.0 and UW/CIMSS SATCON all supported a 45 kt intensity around
0600 UTC. Since the convective organization has continued to
increase over the past few hours, the initial intensity for this
advisory has been set at 50 kt.

Although Kay is currently within an area of light to moderate
northeasterly shear, it will be moving over SSTs of 28-29 degrees
Celsius during the next couple of days which should allow steady
strengthening. Most of the dynamical model guidance also predicts
significant deepening of Kay during that time, giving more
confidence to the forecast. The updated NHC intensity forecast
shows a slightly faster rate of strengthening in the short
term and now calls for Kay to become a hurricane within 24 hour.
The new forecast also calls for a slightly higher peak intensity
than before. After 60 h, cooler SSTs along the storm's track
are likely to induce gradual weakening, but Kay is forecast to
remain a large hurricane when it passes near the southern and
central portions of the Baja California peninsula. The latest NHC
intensity prediction again lies between the IVCN and HCCA aids.

Kay appears to have wobbled back left since the previous advisory,
but the longer term motion is 290/13 kt. Kay should remain on a
west-northwestward heading through tonight, but by Tuesday a
northwestward motion around the western periphery of a mid-level
ridge over Mexico is expected to begin. A turn to the
north-northwest is forecast by midweek and the guidance is in good
agreement that Kay will move in the direction of the southwest and
west-central coast of the Baja peninsula. Although there has been
some increase in model spread this cycle with the UKMET keeping the
system farther offshore, the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF are
near the eastern side of the guidance envelope and are in good
agreement on Kay moving very close to or over a portion of the west
coast of the Baja peninsula. The NHC track forecast is near a
blend of those models and is very similar to the previous track.
Users are reminded not to focus on the exact details of the
long-range forecast as wind and rainfall impacts are likely to
extend far from the center of the hurricane.

Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely be required later
today for portions of the Baja California peninsula, and interests
there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center of Kay is expected to stay offshore of
southwest mainland Mexico, heavy rainfall could lead to flash
flooding, including landslides, across portions of the Mexican
Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night.

2. Kay is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane while it moves
northward toward the Baja California peninsula later this week.
While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
are uncertain, there is increasing risk of wind and rainfall
impacts in the Baja California peninsula during the middle and
latter parts of the week. Interests there should closely monitor
updates to the forecast as tropical storm or hurricane watches
will likely be required for a portion of that area later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 15.7N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 16.0N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.0N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 18.1N 110.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 19.6N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 21.4N 112.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 23.3N 113.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 27.5N 115.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 29.9N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 050851
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
400 AM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022

...KAY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...OUTER BANDS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING IN PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 105.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula
should closely monitor the progress of Kay. Watches may be required
for portions of the Baja California peninsula later today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 105.3 West. Kay is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This motion
with some reduction in forward speed is expected through tonight.
A turn to the northwest and north-northwest is forecast to occur on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to
pass south and southwest of southwestern Mexico today and tonight,
then move toward the southern Baja California peninsula on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Kay
is forecast to become a hurricane Monday night or early Tuesday.
Continued strengthening is forecast through midweek.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
primarily to the northeast of the center

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next several days, and are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells
are expected to reach the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula by Tuesday. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall,
with isolated storm total amounts of 10 inches, across portions of
the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night.
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico
in outer rainbands during the next day or so.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 050850
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
0900 UTC MON SEP 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY. WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.3W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......180NE 100SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.3W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 104.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.0N 106.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.1N 110.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.6N 111.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.4N 112.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 190SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.3N 113.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 190SE 160SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 27.5N 115.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 29.9N 118.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 105.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 050252
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022

The structure of Kay has slightly improved in satellite imagery
this evening. Deep convection has increased near the center, with a
more defined curved band over the southern and western portions
of the circulation. Earlier ASCAT data showed several 35-kt wind
vectors in the northeastern quadrant of the storm, and objective
satellite estimates have increased since TAFB provided a T2.5/35 kt
Dvorak classification at 00 UTC. Therefore, the initial intensity
is raised slightly to 40 kt for this advisory.

Kay has moved a bit right of the previous forecast track, but its
initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt. This
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two as
the core of the cyclone passes well south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico. By Tuesday, the tightly clustered guidance
agrees that Kay will turn toward the northwest and then the
north-northwest, moving in the general direction of the Baja
California peninsula. The official NHC forecast track is virtually
unchanged from the previous one beyond 36 h, and closely follows the
HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. There is increased spread in the GFS
and ECMWF ensemble members later this week as Kay moves northward.
Users are reminded not to focus on the exact details of the
long-range forecast, as track errors on average increase with time.

The environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening
during the next few days. Although Kay is currently contending with
some moderate northeasterly wind shear, a moist and unstable
atmosphere over very warm sea-surface temperatures (> 29C) should
allow the storm to intensify through the middle of the week. The
northeasterly shear is forecast to weaken beyond 48 h, which would
be even more conducive for significant strengthening as suggested by
some of the intensity guidance. The NHC intensity forecast generally
lies between the IVCN and HCCA aids, and it shows Kay becoming a
hurricane by early Tuesday and continuing to intensify into
Wednesday. Beyond 72 h, cooler SSTs are expected to induce a
weakening trend through the rest of the forecast period.

Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required tonight or on
Monday for portions of the Baja California peninsula, and interests
there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center of Kay is expected to stay offshore, heavy
rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding in portions of
southwestern Mexico over the next few days.

2. Kay is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane while it moves
northward toward the Baja California peninsula later this week.
While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
are uncertain, there is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in the
Baja California peninsula during the middle and latter parts of the
week. Interests there should closely monitor updates to the forecast
as tropical storm or hurricane watches could be required tonight or
on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 15.6N 103.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.0N 105.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 16.5N 107.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 18.9N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 20.7N 111.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 22.5N 112.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 26.2N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 29.3N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 050250
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022

...KAY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 103.8W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula
should closely monitor the progress of Kay.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 103.8 West. Kay is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a
turn to the northwest and north-northwest on Tuesday. The center of
Kay is expected to remain south of southwestern Mexico during the
next couple of days, then move toward the southern Baja California
peninsula on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected, and Kay is forecast to become a hurricane
in a day or so and continue strengthening through midweek.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next several days, and are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells
are expected to reach the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula by Tuesday. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated storm total amounts of 5 inches, across coastal
portions of southwestern Mexico from the Mexican state of Guerrero
northwestward to Jalisco over the next few days.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico
in outer rainbands during the next couple of days.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 050249
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
0300 UTC MON SEP 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.8W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.8W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 103.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 105.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.5N 107.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.9N 110.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.7N 111.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 190SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.5N 112.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 190SE 150SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 26.2N 114.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 29.3N 116.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 103.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 042036
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022

Satellite data indicate that the depression has strengthened into
Tropical Storm Kay. Although the convective pattern is still a bit
ragged, banding features have improved on the south side of the
cyclone. A pair of ASCAT passes from a few hours ago showed peak
winds around 35 kt to the northeast of the center. Based on that
data and the T2.5 Dvorak classification from TAFB, the initial
intensity is increased a little to 35 kt. Kay is a large storm with
its cloud field extending several hundred miles across, and some of
the outer bands are moving across the coast of southwestern Mexico.

The center is located a little to the north of the previous track,
and the estimated motion is now 290/11 kt. This general motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days, keeping the core
of the system south of the coast of southwestern Mexico during that
time. Thereafter, the models all show a turn to the northwest and
then the north. Overall, there has been little change in the model
guidance this cycle and the solutions remain relatively tightly
clustered. Despite the tightly-clustered guidance, the GFS and
ECMWF ensemble spreads encompass as far east as the Gulf of
California and as far west as a few hundred miles west of the Baja
California peninsula. The NHC track forecast is a little to the
north of the previous one in the short term, due to the initial
position and motion, but ends up close to the previous track beyond
48 h.

Kay is likely to strengthen during the next few days while it
remains over warm water and embedded in a very moist environment.
Although the Rapid Intensification Indices in the SHIPS model are
relatively high, rapid intensification in the short term appears
unlikely given the broad structure of the cyclone and expected
moderate shear. The new NHC intensity forecast is largely
consistent with the previous one and shows steady strengthening
during the next 2 to 3 days. Beyond that time, weakening is
expected due to cooler SSTs. Regardless of the details, Kay is
expected to be a significant hurricane near Baja in a few days.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Kay is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall could
lead to localized flash flooding in portions of southwestern Mexico.

2. Interests in the Baja California peninsula should closely monitor
Kay as tropical storm or hurricane watches could be required tonight
or on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 14.8N 102.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 15.1N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 15.6N 106.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 16.4N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 17.6N 109.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 19.2N 110.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 21.1N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 24.9N 113.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 28.3N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 042035
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM KAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 102.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula
should closely monitor the progress of Kay.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 102.5 West. Kay is
moving toward the west-northwest at 13 mph (20 km/h) and a west to
west-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days,
followed by a turn to the north. Kay is expected to remain south of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Kay is forecast to
become a hurricane in a day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to reach the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by Tuesday, and
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated storm totals of 5 inches, across coastal portions of
southwestern Mexico from Guerrero northwestward to Jalisco over the
next few days.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico
in outer rainbands during the next couple of days.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 042034
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
2100 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR KAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 102.5W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 102.5W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.1N 104.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.6N 106.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.4N 107.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.6N 109.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.2N 110.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.1N 112.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...210NE 190SE 150SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 24.9N 113.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 28.3N 115.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 102.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 041448
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located a
couple of hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico has developed
sufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center to
be classified a tropical depression. Thunderstorm activity, with a
significant amount of lightning, is strongest in a band on the
system's west side. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on
a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. It should also be noted there are
likely strong wind gusts to the north of the center where winds
typically accelerate in these situations near the coast of Mexico.

The initial motion is estimated to be 280/9 kt, but this is somewhat
uncertain since the system just formed. This general motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days, keeping the core
of the system south of the coast of southwestern Mexico during that
time. Thereafter, the models all show a turn to the northwest and
then the north. Although the models agree on this turn, there is
some spread on where and how sharply the system recurves. The GFS
and ECMWF ensemble spreads show solutions as far east as the Gulf of
California and as far west as a few hundred miles west of the Baja
California peninsula. The NHC track forecast follows the consensus
models, which takes the system very near the Baja peninsula in 4 to
5 days.

Overall, the environmental factors appear conducive for the
depression to intensify during the next few days with the shear
remaining low to moderate in strength, mid-level moisture very high,
and SSTs sufficently warm. However, the large size of the system
and lack of an inner core should limit rapid intensification in the
short term. The intensity guidance show at least steady
strengthening during the next 72 hours followed by some weakening
toward the end of the forecast period due to cooler SSTs. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the IVCN guidance, and shows the
system becoming a tropical storm later today and a significant
hurricane near Baja in a few days.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the depression is expected to stay offshore, heavy
rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding in portions of
southwestern Mexico.

2. Interests in the Baja California peninsula should closely
monitor the depression as tropical storm or hurricane watches could
be required tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 14.0N 101.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 14.3N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 14.6N 105.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 15.3N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 16.3N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 17.8N 110.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 19.6N 111.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 23.6N 112.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 27.3N 114.8W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 041447
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 101.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula
should closely monitor the depression.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twelve-E was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 101.4 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and
a west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next couple
of days, followed by a turn to the north. The depression is
expected to remain south of southwestern Mexico during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become
a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to
reach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by
Tuesday, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of
rainfall, with isolatd storm totals of 5 inches, across coastal
portions of southwestern Mexico from Guerrero northwestward to
Jalisco over the next few days.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico
in outer rainbands during the next couple of days.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 041447
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 101.4W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 101.4W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 100.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.3N 103.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.6N 105.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.3N 106.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.3N 108.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.8N 110.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.6N 111.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 23.6N 112.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 27.3N 114.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 101.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>