Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JAVIER-22
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 040837
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 04 2022

There has been no significant deep convection associated with
Javier for nearly 16 hours, and it's doubtful that any
organized deep convection will attempt a comeback. Accordingly,
Javier has become a post-tropical remnant low and this will be the
final NHC advisory on this system. The initial intensity is
lowered to 30 kt, which is in agreement with subjective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The remnant low should
continue to gradually spin down over cooler sea surface
temperatures during the next several days, and the deterministic
models indicate that the surface circulation will become a trough
of low pressure toward the end of the week. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the
intensity model consensus.

The low continues to move away from the Baja California peninsula
and the initial motion estimate is 295/13 kt. The cyclone should
turn westward soon in the low-level trade flow as a shallow remnant
low and maintain this general heading until it dissipates in 5 days.

This is the final NHC advisory on Javier. For additional
information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 27.2N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 04/1800Z 27.8N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0600Z 27.9N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1800Z 27.6N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0600Z 27.1N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1800Z 26.8N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z 26.6N 131.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z 26.5N 133.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 040837
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 04 2022

...JAVIER DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 118.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier
was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 118.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 15
mph (24 km/h). A slow turn toward the west is expected today.
The remnant low is then forecast to continue westward through early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected during
the next several days and the remnant low will likely dissipate
toward the end of the week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions
of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAINFALL: Javier may produce up to an additional inch of rainfall
across portions of the Baja California Peninsula today, bringing
isolated storm total rainfall up to 5 inches.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Javier. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 040836
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022
0900 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 118.5W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 118.5W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 117.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.8N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 27.9N 123.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 27.6N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 27.1N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.8N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.6N 131.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 26.5N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 118.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 040235
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 03 2022

Javier is nearly post-tropical, having produced little to no deep
convection since late this morning. Post-tropical transition
will likely conclude tonight since the cyclone is moving over
cold water that should prevent the redevelopment of organized deep
convection. Earlier ASCAT data showed peak winds near 40 kt, so the
initial intensity was held at that value, possibly conservatively
so. Without deep convection to sustain it, Javier should slowly
weaken over the next several days, eventually dissipating by the
middle of next week. The new official intensity forecast is nearly
identical to the previous one and is close to the intensity model
consensus.

The tropical storm is now moving away from the Baja California
peninsula. Low-level easterly steering flow should cause Javier to
turn westward by the end of the weekend. By then the cyclone is
forecast to be a shallow remnant low, and it should continue
westward through the middle of the week until it dissipates. The NHC
track forecast is heavily based on the TVCN track consensus aid with
no changes of note made from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 26.8N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 27.6N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 05/0000Z 28.0N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1200Z 27.9N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0000Z 27.6N 126.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1200Z 27.0N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z 26.7N 130.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z 26.5N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 040234
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Javier Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 03 2022

...JAVIER FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 117.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was
located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 117.1 West. Javier is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slow turn
toward the west is expected on Sunday. Javier is then expected to
continue westward through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is anticipated during the next several days. Javier will
likely become a post-tropical cyclone tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions
of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAINFALL: Javier may produce up to an additional inch of rainfall
across portions of the Baja California peninsula through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 040234
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022
0300 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 117.1W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 117.1W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 116.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.6N 119.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 28.0N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.9N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.6N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 27.0N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.7N 130.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 26.5N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 117.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 032332
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Javier Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 03 2022

...JAVIER MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 116.7W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the west coast of Baja California Sur.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was
located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 116.7 West. Javier is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). The tropical
storm is forecast to slow down and turn toward the west through the
end of the weekend, and then move generally westward after that. On
the forecast track, the center of Javier will continue to move away
from the coast of Baja California Sur this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Javier will
likely become a post-tropical cyclone tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Javier can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1, WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions
of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of additional
rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 5 inches across
portions of Baja California Sur through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 032042
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 03 2022

Javier has been devoid of deep convection for the past few hours.
Recent satellite surface wind measurements also indicate the cyclone
has a smaller wind field than previously estimated and
tropical-storm-force winds are only present in the northern portion
of the circulation. Based on the ASCAT data the initial intensity
is held at 40 kt for this cycle.

The lack of organized, deep convection is an indication Javier is
likely to become a post-tropical cyclone soon. The system is
moving over a cooling gradient of ocean surface temperatures and
into a region with moderate to strong vertical wind shear and lower
relative humidities. Model guidance agrees Javier should continue
to weaken and the official forecast reflects this information. The
system is now predicted to be a post-tropical cyclone within 12
hours.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 14 kt. The
mid-level ridge to the north currently steering Javier is expected
to gradually turn the storm west-northwestward and slow its forward
motion. Low-level tradewinds are then expected to turn the
weakening shallow vortex to the west and west-southwest beyond 48
hours. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory
prediction and the model consensus aids.

Although the NHC forecast wind radii do not explicitly reach the
coast of Mexico, any northward deviations from the official track
forecast could result in tropical-storm-force winds reaching
portions of Baja California Sur this evening, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in
Baja California Sur.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected between Puerto de
Andresito and Punta Eugenia through this afternoon. A Tropical Storm
Warning remains in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 26.0N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 27.0N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 04/1800Z 27.6N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 05/0600Z 27.9N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z 27.8N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0600Z 27.4N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z 27.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z 26.7N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 26.7N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 032042
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Javier Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 03 2022

...RAIN AND GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 116.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for the west coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas
northward to Puerto San Andresito and the Tropical Storm Watch
for the east coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San
Lucas northward to Bahia San Juan Bautista

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The west coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Puerto San
Andresito northward to Punta Eugenia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case, within
the next few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was
located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 116.1 West. Javier is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and is expected to
gradually turn toward the west-northwest and west and slow in
forward motion for the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
the center of Javier should begin to move away from the coast of
Baja California Sur this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Javier is
expected to gradually weaken over the next few days and become a
post-tropical cyclone by early Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Javier can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1, WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
warning area for the next couple of hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions
of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of additional
rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 5 inches across
portions of Baja California Sur through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 032042
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022
2100 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS
NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS
NORTHWARD TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO NORTHWARD TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 116.1W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 116.1W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 115.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 27.0N 117.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.6N 120.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 27.9N 123.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 27.8N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 27.4N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 27.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 26.7N 132.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.7N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 116.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 04/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 031742
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Javier Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
1200 PM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 115.4W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The west coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Puerto San
Andresito northward to Punta Eugenia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The west coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas
northward to Puerto San Andresito
* The east coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas
northward to Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case, within
the next 6 to 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 6 to
12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 115.4 West. Javier is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general
motion is forecast to continue through today. A slow turn toward the
west-northwest to west is expected to begin early Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Javier should move generally parallel
to but offshore of the coast of Baja California Sur through today,
and then turn away from the coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Javier is expected to gradually weaken over the next few days
and become a post-tropical cyclone by early Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Javier can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1, WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
warning area and are possible in portions of the watch area
through this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions
of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of additional
rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 5 inches across
portions of Baja California Sur through today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ61 KNHC 031538
TCUEP1

Tropical Storm Javier Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
940 AM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...

The Government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the west coast of Baja
California Sur from Puerto San Andresito northward to Punta Eugenia.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 031450
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022

The satellite presentation of Javier has continued to deteriorate
over the past few hours. The deep convective burst noted in the
previous discussion has rotated to the southern portion of the
circulation and cloud top temperatures have warmed to above -70
degrees C. Microwave and infrared imagery show the northern half
of the semicircle to be devoid of any deep convection. A blend of
the objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates support
lowering the intensity to 40 kt for this advisory.

Javier appears to have begun its weakening trend. The system has
crossed over waters cooler than 26 degrees C and the sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track are expected to be
progressively colder. Atmospheric conditions are also predicted to
not be conducive for any additional strengthening. Global models
suggest that the vertical wind shear should increase and the
environmental moisture to decrease within a day. Based on this
information and guidance, the official forecast now shows Javier
becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 24 hours and weakening to a
remnant within two days.

The initial motion is estimated to be 325 degrees at 13 kt. Though
the center of Javier appears to have shifted slightly to the
north, the storm is expected to be steered northwestward by a
mid-level ridge to its northeast. Within a day or less, model
guidance agrees that the ridge should turn Javier to the
west-northwest. Low-level tradewinds are expected to turn a
weakening Javier to the west and west-southwest beyond 48 hours.
The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly northward from the
previous advisory prediction and is close the model consensus aids.

Although the NHC forecast wind radii do not explicitly reach the
coast of Mexico, any additional eastward or northward deviations
from the official track forecast could result in
tropical-storm-force winds reaching portions of Baja California
Sur, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in
Baja California Sur.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja
California Sur through today. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in
effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 25.1N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 26.4N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 27.3N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 05/0000Z 27.7N 121.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 05/1200Z 27.7N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0000Z 27.4N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1200Z 27.1N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z 26.6N 132.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1200Z 26.2N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 031448
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Javier Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022

...GUSTY CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS JAVIER REMAINS OFFSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 114.8W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The west coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas
northward to Punta Eugenia
* The east coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas
northward to Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was
located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 114.8 West. Javier is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general
motion is forecast to continue through today. A slow turn toward the
west-northwest to west is expected to begin early Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Javier should move generally parallel
to but offshore of the coast of Baja California Sur through today,
and then turn away from the coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Javier is expected to gradually weaken over the next few days and
become a post-tropical cyclone by early Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Javier can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1, WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will be possible in squalls across
portions of southern Baja California Sur through today. Gusty
conditions are forecast to spread northward through the early
afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions
of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of additional
rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 5 inches across
portions of Baja California Sur through today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 031448
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS
NORTHWARD TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS
NORTHWARD TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 114.8W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 114.8W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 114.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 26.4N 116.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.3N 119.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 27.7N 121.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.7N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.4N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 27.1N 129.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 26.6N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 26.2N 134.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 114.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 031146
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Javier Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
600 AM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022

...JAVIER BRINGING HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND ROUGH SURF TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 114.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The west coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas
northward to Punta Eugenia
* The east coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas
northward to Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 114.5 West. Javier is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general
motion is forecast to continue through today. A slow turn toward the
west-northwest to west is expected to begin early Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Javier should move generally parallel
to but well offshore the coast of Baja California Sur through
today, and then turn away from the coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight additional strengthening is possible this morning
before the tropical storm begins to weaken by this evening. Javier
is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Javier can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1, WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will be possible in squalls across
portions of southern Baja California Sur through today. Gusty
conditions are forecast to spread northward through the early
afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions
of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of additional
rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 5 inches across
portions of Baja California Sur through today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 030852
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022

This morning's satellite presentation consists of a recent deep
convective burst with -78C cloud tops just to the west of the
surface circulation center. A 0116 UTC SSMI/S microwave image
showed a primary curved band wrapping around 65 percent of the
cyclone's surface center. Based on a compromise of the latest
subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, a 0428 UTC SATCON
analysis of 49 kt, and a recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass
revealing a few peak-wind retrievals of 39 kt (undersampling
likely), the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory.

There's a small window of opportunity that Javier could strengthen
slightly today before it moves over a gradient of progressively
cooler waters of less than 24C this evening. This negatively
contributing oceanic parameter, along with an increasingly stable
surrounding environment should cause Javier to become a
post-tropical cyclone Sunday, and a remnant low-pressure system by
early next week.

Javier's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/13
kt. This general motion should continue through today in response
to the mid-level steering flow produced by a mid-tropospheric ridge
anchored over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. By early
Sunday, the global models are in good agreement that this ridge
should build westward and influence Javier to slowly turn toward
the west-northwest to west while the cyclone weakens. The NHC
forecast follows suit and lies close to the TVCE and NOAA HFIP HCCA
consensus aids.

Javier's wind radii have been adjusted for this advisory using a
fortuitous 0430 UTC METOP-B ASCAT overpass. Although the NHC
forecast wind radii do not explicitly reach the coast of Mexico,
any additional eastward deviation from the official track forecast
could result in tropical-storm-force winds reaching portions of
Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in
Baja California Sur.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja
California Sur through today. A Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 24.0N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 25.4N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 26.8N 118.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 27.3N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 05/0600Z 27.5N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1800Z 27.3N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0600Z 26.9N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0600Z 26.5N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0600Z 26.0N 134.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 030852
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Javier Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022

...JAVIER BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 114.1W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The west coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas
northward to Punta Eugenia
* The east coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas
northward to Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was
located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 114.1 West. Javier is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general
motion is forecast to continue through today. A slow turn
toward the west-northwest to west is expected to begin early
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Javier should move
generally parallel to but well offshore the coast of Baja
California Sur through Saturday, and then turn away from the coast
on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight additional strengthening is possible this morning before the
tropical storm begins to weaken by this evening. Javier is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Javier can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1, WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will be possible in squalls across
portions of southern Baja California Sur through today. Gusty
conditions are forecast to spread northward through early afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions
of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of additional
rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 5 inches across
portions of Baja California Sur through today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 030852
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022
0900 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS
NORTHWARD TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS
NORTHWARD TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 114.1W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 114.1W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 113.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 25.4N 115.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 26.8N 118.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.3N 120.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 27.5N 123.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 27.3N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 26.9N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 26.5N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 26.0N 134.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 114.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 030537
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Javier Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
1200 AM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022

...RAIN BANDS OF JAVIER BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 113.6W
ABOUT 240 MI...380 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The west coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas
northward to Punta Eugenia
* The east coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas
northward to Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 12 to
24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was
located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 113.6 West. Javier is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This
general motion is forecast to continue through today. A slow turn
toward the west is expected to begin by Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Javier should move generally parallel to but
well offshore the coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday,
and then turn away from the coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight additional strengthening is possible this morning
before the tropical storm begins to weaken by this evening.
Javier is forecast to become post-tropical on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Javier can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1, WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will be possible in squalls across
portions of southern Baja California Sur through today. Gusty
conditions are forecast to spread northward through early afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions
of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Javier is expected to produce 1 to 2
inches of additional rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of
5 inches across portions of Baja California Sur through today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 030244
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022

AMSR microwave imagery that arrived after the issuance of the
previous advisory indicated that Javier's center was slightly
northeast of previous estimates. The microwave imagery also showed
that the Tropical Storm still has a broad center, with more recent
visible imagery suggesting that multiple swirls are rotating around
a mean center. Despite the cyclone's broad organization, subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased and now
support a higher initial intensity of 45 kt. Slight additional
strengthening is possible overnight before Javier moves over much
cooler waters and begins to weaken on Saturday. Simulated satellite
imagery from the GFS, HWRF, and ECMWF models indicate the cyclone
will lose all deep convection and become a remnant low in about
36 h, which is reflected in the latest NHC forecast. No changes of
note were made to the official intensity forecast.

Due to the relocation of Javier's initial position to the northeast,
the NHC track forecast has also been adjusted in that direction.
Otherwise, there has been no change in the thinking behind the track
forecast. The tropical storm appears to have accelerated slightly
and now has an initial motion estimate of 330/12 kt. A mid-level
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should steer Javier
generally parallel to the coast of the Baja California peninsula for
the next day or so. The ridge is then forecast to build westward as
Javier weakens, which should cause the cyclone to turn westward
through the middle of next week. The NHC track forecast is based on
the latest multi-model track consensus and is near the center of the
guidance envelope.

Although the NHC forecast wind radii do not explicitly reach the
coast of Mexico, any additional eastward deviation from the official
track forecast could result in tropical-storm-force winds reaching
portions of Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding
in Baja California Sur.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja
California Sur through Saturday. A Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 23.1N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 24.6N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 26.2N 116.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 27.1N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 05/0000Z 27.4N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1200Z 27.5N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0000Z 27.2N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0000Z 27.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0000Z 26.6N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 030243
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Javier Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022

...RAIN BANDS OF JAVIER CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 113.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The west coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas
northward to Punta Eugenia
* The east coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas
northward to Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 12 to
24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was
located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 113.2 West. Javier is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This
general motion is forecast to continue tonight. A slow turn toward
the west is expected to begin by Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Javier should move generally parallel to but well offshore
the coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday, and then turn
away from land on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slight additional strengthening is possible
tonight before the tropical storm begins to weaken by the end of
the day Saturday. Javier is forecast to become post-tropical on
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Javier can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1, WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will be possible in squalls across
portions of southern Baja California Sur tonight. Gusty conditions
are forecast to spread northward through Saturday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions
of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Javier is expected to produce 1 to 2
inches of additional rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of
5 inches across portions of Baja California Sur through Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 030243
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022
0300 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS
NORTHWARD TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS
NORTHWARD TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 113.2W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 113.2W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 112.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 24.6N 114.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 26.2N 116.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.1N 118.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 27.4N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.5N 124.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.2N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 27.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 26.6N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 113.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 022334
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Javier Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
600 PM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022

...RAIN BANDS OF JAVIER BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 112.8W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The west coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas
northward to Punta Eugenia
* The east coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas
northward to Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 12 to
24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 112.8 West. Javier is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (21 km/h). A
slight increase in forward speed with a turn toward the
west-northwest is anticipated on Saturday, followed by a turn
toward the west on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center
of Javier should move generally parallel to but well offshore the
coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday, and then turn away
from land on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight or Saturday
before Javier begins to weaken on Sunday. Javier is forecast to
become post-tropical in about 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Javier can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1, WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in squalls across
portions of southern Baja California Sur tonight. Gusty conditions
will spread northward through Saturday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions
of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Javier is expected to produce 1 to 2
inches of additional rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of
5 inches across portions of Baja California Sur through Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 022050
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022

The organization of Javier has not changed significantly over the
past few hours. Satellite infrared imagery indicate that convection
is deepest in the western portion of the tropical storm's elongated
circulation with an apparent dry slot in the northwest quadrant.
The initial intensity remains at 40 kt and is a blend of the
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to be conducive for
strengthening for the next 24 hours, with warm sea surface
temperatures, low deep-layer vertical wind shear and sufficient
environmental moisture. However, Javier still has a relatively
broad circulation, so the NHC forecast only calls for slight
strengthening. It should be noted that the peak of the official
intensity forecast is now at the top of the model guidance. Beyond
a day, the system is predicted to weaken as it moves over
progressively cooler waters and into a drier environment. Javier
is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days.

The storm is moving north-northwestward at 10 kt. The reasoning
behind the track forecast is unchanged. A mid-tropospheric ridge to
the north is the primary synoptic feature steering Javier. This
ridge is expected to build westward and turn the cyclone to the
northwest and west-northwest in the next couple of days. The
official forecast has shifted eastward again towards the model
consensus aids. Based on the latest forecast, the Government of
Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for Baja California Sur.
Associated outer rainbands and large swells are expected to affect
portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula coast
during the next couple of days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding
in Baja California Sur.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja
California Sur through Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 21.8N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 23.2N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 25.0N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 26.2N 117.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 26.8N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 05/0600Z 26.9N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1800Z 26.8N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1800Z 26.3N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1800Z 25.8N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 022049
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Javier Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022

...JAVIER EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH SATURDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 112.8W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
west coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas northward to
Punta Eugenia and for the east coast of Baja California Sur from
Cabo San Lucas northward to Bahia San Juan Bautista.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The west coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas
northward to Punta Eugenia
* The east coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas
northward to Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 12 to
24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was
located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 112.8 West. Javier is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and an
increase in forward speed is expected through early Saturday. A
turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Saturday, followed by
a turn toward the west on Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Javier should move parallel to but offshore the coast of
Baja California Sur through Saturday, and then move away from land
on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible through Saturday before Javier
begins to weaken on Sunday. Javier is forecast to become
post-tropical in about 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center. An automated weather station at the Cabo San
Lucas marina recently reported a wind gust to 44 mph (71 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Javier can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1, WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of
southern Baja California Sur tonight and will spread northward
through Saturday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions
of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Javier is expected to produce 1 to 2
inches of additional rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of
5 inches across portions of Baja California Sur through Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 022048
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022
2100 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO
PUNTA EUGENIA AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM
CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS
NORTHWARD TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS
NORTHWARD TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 112.8W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 112.8W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 112.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.2N 113.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 25.0N 115.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 26.2N 117.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 26.8N 120.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 26.9N 123.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.8N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 26.3N 130.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 25.8N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 112.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 021447
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022

While quite broad, Javier continues to improve in organization. Deep
convection has been forming near the center of the circulation with
cold cloud tops below -80 degrees C. The initial intensity is
raised to 40 kt to represent a blend of the Dvorak satellite
classifications from TAFB and SAB.

The storm is expected to be over warm waters (greater than 26
degrees C) for another 24 hours. Global models also indicate
atmospheric conditions should be conducive for additional
strengthening, with weak vertical wind shear and ample environmental
moisture. But due to Javier's elongated structure, the official
forecast calls for the system to only slightly intensify in the next
day. Thereafter, the cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves over
cooler waters and enters a drier, more stable environment. Javier
is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 48 hours.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 8 kt. The
storm is moving along the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its
north. In the next couple of days, the ridge is expected to build
westward and turn Javier toward the west-northwest and west. The
official forecast is again adjusted to the right of the previous
forecast towards the multi-model consensus aids. However,
tropical-storm-force winds generated by the storm are predicted to
remain offshore of the western coast of Baja California Sur.
Associated outer rainbands and large swells are expected to affect
portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula coast
during the next couple of days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding
in Baja California Sur.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 20.7N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 22.0N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 23.8N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 25.3N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 26.1N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 05/0000Z 26.4N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/1200Z 26.3N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1200Z 25.7N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1200Z 25.2N 132.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 021446
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Javier Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022

...JAVIER GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 112.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 112.2 West. Javier is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and an increase in
forward speed is expected through early Saturday. A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward
the west on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
through Saturday before Javier begins to weaken on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Javier can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions
of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Javier is expected to produce 1 to 2
inches of rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 4 inches
across portions of Baja California Sur through this weekend.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 021446
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022
1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 112.2W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 112.2W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 111.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 22.0N 113.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.8N 114.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 25.3N 117.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 26.1N 119.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 26.4N 122.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.3N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 25.7N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 25.2N 132.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 112.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 020842
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022

Since yesterday afternoon, deep convection has been developing over
the western half of the cyclone. Although the surface circulation
is still elongated (north to south), deep bursts of convection
have recently appeared near the estimated center. The latest
microwave imagery indicated curved banding with cold cloud
tops of -81C forming in the southeast quadrant. A blend of the
subjective satellite intensity from TAFB and SAB yields an estimate
of 35 kt. Accordingly, the depression has been upgraded to a
tropical storm for this advisory.

The depression is expected to remain in an environment conducive
for additional strengthening through Saturday, but given its
broad, elongated structure, only modest intensification is
forecast. Afterward, gradual weakening is expected as the cyclone
traverses decreasing (22-24C) oceanic temperatures while moving
into a stable, dry marine layer. The intensity forecast is an
update of the previous one and is based on the various intensity
consensus guidance.

Javier's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/9
kt, moving along the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge
over northern Mexico. By the 48 hour period, the ridge as
mentioned above is expected to build westward, which should cause
the cyclone to turn toward the west-northwest and west over the
weekend. The official track forecast is again adjusted to the
right of the previous forecast based on a mean track of the
clustered guidance, however, tropical-storm-force winds generated
by Javier are expected to remain well offshore of the western coast
of Baja California Sur. Associated outer rainbands and large
swells are expected to affect portions of the southern and
central Baja California peninsula coast during the next couple of
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 19.9N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 21.2N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 23.0N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 24.6N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 25.6N 118.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 26.1N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/0600Z 26.1N 123.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z 25.5N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0600Z 24.8N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 020840
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Javier Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM JAVIER...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 111.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 111.7 West. Javier is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and an increase
in forward speed is expected through early Saturday. A turn toward
the west-northwest is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn
toward the west on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is forecast through Saturday before
Javier begins to weaken by Sunday evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center. An automated Mexican navy weather station on
Socorro Islands recently reported a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Javier are expected to affect portions
of the southern and central Baja California peninsula. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rainbands should move onshore of the southwestern
coast of Baja California Sur within the next few hours. Tropical
Storm Javier is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with
isolated storm total amounts of 4 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur through this weekend.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 020840
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022
0900 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 111.7W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 111.7W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 21.2N 112.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.0N 114.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.6N 116.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 25.6N 118.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 26.1N 121.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 26.1N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 25.5N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 24.8N 133.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 111.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 020232
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 01 2022

The depression is gradually getting better organized, with a recent
SSMIS microwave image showing a more continuous convective band
forming on the western side of the circulation. The initial
intensity remains 30 kt on this advisory, which is a blend of
T2.5/35 kt and T1.5/25 kt Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. The depression has the opportunity to strengthen
during the next 36 hours or so while it remains over warm waters and
in an environment of low shear, although any intensification is
likely to be gradual given the system's broad nature. The NHC
official forecast still shows a peak intensity of 45 kt in 36
hours, which is between the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. The
system is expected to weaken after 36 hours as it moves over much
colder waters, and it is likely to lose all its deep convection and
become post tropical in 2 to 3 days.

The depression remains on a steady northwestward track of 320/9 kt,
positioned along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge.
Over the next 2 days, a blocking ridge over the western United
States is expected to strengthen further, which will force the
cyclone to turn toward the west-northwest and west over the weekend.
The updated NHC track forecast has been nudged northeastward
compared to the previous forecast based on the latest suite of
models, but the system's tropical-storm-force winds are expected to
remain well offshore of the western coast of Baja California Sur.
Winds aside, outer rainbands and large swells are expected to affect
portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula coast
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 19.7N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 20.7N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 22.5N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 24.1N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 25.2N 117.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 25.9N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/0000Z 26.1N 122.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z 25.5N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0000Z 25.0N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 020231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 01 2022

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 111.3W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E
was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 111.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h),
and an increase in forward speed is expected through early Saturday.
A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Saturday, followed
by a turn toward the west on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours or so, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on
Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect
portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 1 to
2 inches of rainfall, with isolated storm totals of 3 inches across
southern portions of Baja California Sur through Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 020231
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022
0300 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 111.3W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 111.3W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 111.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.7N 112.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 22.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 24.1N 115.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 25.2N 117.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 25.9N 120.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 26.1N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 25.5N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 25.0N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 111.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 012141
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...AMENDED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022
2100 UTC THU SEP 01 2022

AMENDED TO INCLUDE INITIAL 12 FT SEA RADII

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 110.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.9N 111.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 21.4N 112.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.1N 114.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.5N 116.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 25.4N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 25.8N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 25.6N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 24.9N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 110.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 012034
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 01 2022

The area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring a few hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
has developed organized deep convection and a well-defined center.
Therefore, the system is now being classified as a tropical
depression and the initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based
on recent ASCAT data and a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. It should be
noted that the depression is quite large with its cloud field
extending several hundred miles across.

The depression is moving northwestward at 9 kt, and this motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next
couple of days as the system remains steered by the western
periphery of a subtropical ridge. After that time, the weakening
system should turn to the west within the low-level flow. The
models are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near
the middle of the guidance envelope.

The environmental conditions appear favorable for intensification
during the next 36 to 48 hours, however, given the sprawling nature
of the depression only slow strengthening seems likely during that
time. Beyond a couple of days, the system is expected to track over
much cooler SSTs and into a dry and stable airmass. These
conditions should cause the system to decay into a remnant low in
about 60 h with continued weakening forecast thereafter. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the HCCA and IVCN guidance.

Although the center of the system is forecast to remain a couple of
hundred miles off the Baja California coast, outer rainbands
and large swells are expected to affect portions of the southern
and central Baja California peninsula coast during the next couple
of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 18.9N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 19.9N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 21.4N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 23.1N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 24.5N 116.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 25.4N 119.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 04/1800Z 25.8N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1800Z 25.6N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1800Z 24.9N 130.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 012034
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 01 2022

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 110.5W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E
was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 110.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and
this motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 36 to 48 hours, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on
Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect
portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 1 to
2 inches of rainfall, with isolated storm totals of 3 inches across
southern portions of Baja California Sur through Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 012034
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022
2100 UTC THU SEP 01 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 110.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.9N 111.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 21.4N 112.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.1N 114.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.5N 116.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 25.4N 119.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 25.8N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 25.6N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 24.9N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 110.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>