Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for GEORGETTE-22
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 040410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.08.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 129.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.08.2022 17.8N 129.8W WEAK
12UTC 04.08.2022 18.6N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.5N 117.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.08.2022 11.4N 119.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.08.2022 12.3N 121.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2022 13.1N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2022 13.7N 127.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2022 14.5N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 040410

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 129.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 129.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.2N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.7N 131.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.7N 133.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
032200Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 129.4W.
03AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 1137 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031800Z IS 9 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK)
FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATE.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 032036
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Georgette Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 03 2022

Convection associated with Georgette dissipated this morning, and
only a few isolated showers have development since that time. The
small circulation now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level
clouds. Although small bursts of convection could still develop in
associated with the system over the next day or so, it has not had
appreciable organized deep convection in quite some time.
Therefore, it no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone,
and this will be the final NHC advisory on Georgette. The initial
intensity has been reduced to 25 kt. Weakening should continue
over the next 24 to 36 hours as the systems moves over SSTs below
26C and into a dry mid-level environment. The low is expected to
become an open trough in 36 to 48 hours as indicated by the global
model guidance.

The cyclone is now moving northward at about 7 kt. A low-level
ridge is forecast to build to the north of the system, and this
should cause the low to turn westward on Thursday. A general
westward motion should then continue until dissipate occurs. The
new NHC track prediction is a little north of the previous
advisory to be in better agreement with the latest dynamical model
guidance envelope.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 17.5N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 04/0600Z 18.2N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/1800Z 18.7N 131.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0600Z 18.7N 133.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 032035
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Georgette Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 03 2022

...GEORGETTE DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 129.3W
ABOUT 1310 MI...2110 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Georgette was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 129.3
West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near
8 mph (13 km/h). The cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward
tonight, followed by westward turn on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is anticipated, and the
low is expected to dissipate by Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Georgette. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 032035
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
2100 UTC WED AUG 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 129.3W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 129.3W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 129.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.2N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.7N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.7N 133.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 129.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GEORGETTE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 031611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.08.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 129.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.08.2022 16.6N 129.4W WEAK
00UTC 04.08.2022 18.1N 130.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2022 19.0N 131.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2022 19.2N 132.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2022 19.0N 135.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.4N 116.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.08.2022 12.0N 117.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.08.2022 12.0N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2022 13.1N 122.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2022 14.0N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031610

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 031600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 129.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 129.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.5N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.2N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.6N 132.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.4N 134.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
031600Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 129.4W.
03AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 1176 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032200Z, 040400Z, 041000Z AND 041600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 031435
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 03 2022

Georgette is producing minimal deep convection this morning with
very little organization. Based on its current lack of organization,
it could become post-tropical at almost any time. The intitial
intensity of 30 kt is based primarily on continuity, though it does
fall in the range between the latest TAFB Final-T and Current
Intensity estimates. Various dynamical models suggest the cyclone
will weaken and become post tropical within a day, which makes sense
given it is moving into a drier, more stable region. Once Georgette
becomes post-tropical, it should continue to slowly spin down and
ultimately open into a trough within about 60 h. No changes of note
were made to the official intensity forecast.

The initial motion is estimated at 020/9kt, a little faster than
previously forecast. A low-level ridge is expected to build to the
northeast of Georgette today, which should cause the cyclone or its
remnants to turn gradually westward over the next day and a half.
The NHC track forecast has been shifted to the north, primarily due
to Georgette's recent faster north-northeastward motion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 16.8N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 17.5N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 18.2N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 18.6N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 18.4N 134.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 031435
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Georgette Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 03 2022

...GEORGETTE NEARLY POST-TROPICAL...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 129.2W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2125 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Georgette was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 129.2
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 10
mph (17 km/h). Georgette is forecast to turn northward with a
slight decrease in forward speed today. A gradual turn toward the
west is expected by the end of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is anticipated. Georgette is forecast to
become a post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours, if not sooner.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 031433
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
1500 UTC WED AUG 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 129.2W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 129.2W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 129.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.5N 129.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.2N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.6N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.4N 134.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 129.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 031000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 15.7N 129.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 129.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.8N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.5N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.0N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.0N 133.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 17.7N 135.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
031000Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 129.5W.
03AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 1226 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 030841
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 03 2022

There is not a lot of new information to report with Georgette this
morning. Small bursts of convection continue to sporadically fire
southwest of the low-level center which occasionally has been
exposed due to continued moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear.
There has been little change with the satellite intensity estimates
and thus the intensity remains 30 kt this advisory. The ECMWF-based
SHIPS guidance shows little change in the shear magnitude, though it
does pivot the vector out of the north, which could help import even
drier, more stable air than the depression is currently
experiencing. Georgette will also be crossing the 26 C sea surface
temperature isotherm in the next 12-24 hours. These factors will
likely lead to the tropical cyclone's demise, and the latest
forecast now makes Georgette a post-tropical remnant low in about 24
hours, when the ECMWF simulated IR imagery shows the remaining deep
convection dissipating. The remnant low may take another day or
two before it opens up into a trough.

A north-northeastward motion continues, though there has been a
little bit of acceleration at 030/7 kt. The current weakness north
of Georgette is expected to be replaced by a building low-level
ridge, with should result in the cyclone taking a sharp westward
turn in the next 24-36 hours. The track forecast is just a
bit east of the prior one early on due to the current motion, but
ends up a bit south at the end of the forecast period when
Georgette opens up into a trough. This forecast is close to a
blend of the ECMWF and GFS model tracks (GFEX).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 16.1N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 16.8N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 17.5N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z 18.0N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0600Z 18.0N 133.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1800Z 17.7N 135.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 030835
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Georgette Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 03 2022

...GEORGETTE CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 129.5W
ABOUT 1360 MI...2185 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Georgette was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 129.5
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph
(13 km/h). A turn northward is expected later today, followed by a
turn to the west along with an increase in forward speed on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, and
Georgette is forecast to become a remnant low in the next day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 030833
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
0900 UTC WED AUG 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 129.5W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 129.5W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 129.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.8N 129.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.5N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.0N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.0N 133.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.7N 135.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 129.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 030412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 03.08.2022

TROPICAL STORM FRANK ANALYSED POSITION : 26.1N 126.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.08.2022 0 26.1N 126.6W 1004 29
1200UTC 03.08.2022 12 27.8N 127.5W 1006 24
0000UTC 04.08.2022 24 30.0N 127.8W 1008 23
1200UTC 04.08.2022 36 31.4N 127.2W 1011 20
0000UTC 05.08.2022 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 130.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.08.2022 0 15.3N 130.1W 1008 26
1200UTC 03.08.2022 12 16.7N 129.6W 1008 21
0000UTC 04.08.2022 24 17.7N 130.4W 1009 20
1200UTC 04.08.2022 36 18.1N 131.7W 1009 24
0000UTC 05.08.2022 48 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030411

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 030411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.08.2022

TROPICAL STORM FRANK ANALYSED POSITION : 26.1N 126.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.08.2022 26.1N 126.6W WEAK
12UTC 03.08.2022 27.8N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2022 30.0N 127.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2022 31.4N 127.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 130.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.08.2022 15.3N 130.1W WEAK
12UTC 03.08.2022 16.7N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2022 17.7N 130.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2022 18.1N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030411

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 030400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 15.0N 130.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 130.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.1N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.0N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.6N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.9N 132.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.9N 134.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
030400Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 130.0W.
03AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 1277 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 030234
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Georgette continues to hang on to tropical cyclone status. Small
bursts of convection persist to the southwest of the partially
exposed low-level center. Since the convective organization has not
changed, the initial intensity remains at 30 kts, slightly below the
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Moderate
northeasterly to northerly shear is expected over the next few days.
This vertical wind shear combined with the drier surrounding
environment and gradually cooling sea surface temperatures are
likely to cause Georgette to become a remnant low in a day or two.
There were no updates to the intensity forecast this cycle.

The system is moving north-northeastward at about 6 kt into the
weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by Post-Tropical Cyclone
Frank. Within about a day, the low-level ridge should begin
building back and turn Georgette westward as well as increase its
forward speed. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous track prediction and close to the various consensus model
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 15.3N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 16.1N 129.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 17.6N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0000Z 17.9N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1200Z 17.9N 134.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 030233
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Georgette Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022

...GEORGETTE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 130.0W
ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Georgette was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 130.0
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph
(11 km/h). A north-northeastward to northward motion is expected
through Wednesday, followed by a turn to the west along with an
increase in forward speed on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or two, and
Georgette could become a remnant low within the next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 030232
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
0300 UTC WED AUG 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 130.0W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 130.0W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 130.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.1N 129.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.6N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.9N 132.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.9N 134.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 130.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 022200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 14.4N 130.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 130.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.5N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.6N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.2N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.7N 131.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.7N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
022200Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 130.2W.
02AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 1317 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030400Z, 031000Z, 031600Z AND 032200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 022037
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Convection associated with Georgette became slightly better
organized after the release of the previous advisory, and although
the cloud tops have since warmed, there is a loose band of
thunderstorms around the southwestern portion of the circulation.
Georgette's circulation is still well defined in recent ASCAT data,
therefore the system is likely to remain a tropical cyclone for a
bit longer. Peak wind retrievals from the ASCAT-B instrument were
27-28 kt so the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory.

Despite the recent slight improvement in organization, the overall
intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged. A marginal
environment characterized by moderate northeasterly shear, SSTs of
26-27C, and mid-level humidity of 55-60 percent are likely to result
in gradual weakening over the next couple of days. GFS and ECMWF
model simulated satellite imagery indicates that the convection will
wane in 36 to 48 hours, and Georgette is still predicted to
degenerate into a remnant low around that time. The system is
forecast to become an open trough in 3 to 4 days.

Georgette is moving northeastward at about 6 kt. Low- to mid-level
southwesterly flow on the south side of post-tropical cyclone Frank
should continue to steer Georgette generally northeastward during
the next 12 to 18 hours. After that time, a low-level ridge is
forecast to build to the north of the cyclone, which is expected to
cause Georgette to turn back sharply westward. The latest dynamical
model envelope has again shifted northward and eastward and the NHC
track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The official track
forecast, however, lies just to the west and south of the various
consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 14.7N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 15.5N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 16.6N 129.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 17.2N 130.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1800Z 17.7N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0600Z 17.7N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 022037
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Georgette Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022

...GEORGETTE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 130.3W
ABOUT 1445 MI...2330 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Georgette was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 130.3
West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11
km/h). A north-northeastward to northward motion is expected
through Wednesday, followed by a turn to the west along with an
increase in forward speed on Thursday.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds
remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is
forecast during the next day or two, and Georgette could become a
remnant low within the next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 022036
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
2100 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 130.3W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 130.3W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 130.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.5N 129.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.6N 129.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.2N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.7N 131.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.7N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 130.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 021600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 13.9N 130.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 130.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.8N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.7N 129.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.5N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.8N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.7N 132.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
021600Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 130.4W.
02AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 1348 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z AND 031600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 021435
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Convection has continued to pulse near Georgette's circulation
over the past 12 to 24 hours, but there has been little, if any,
organization to the thunderstorm activity during that time. In
fact, the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) provided its last
Dvorak T1.0 on the system at 1800 UTC yesterday, indicating the
lack of organization since that time. The initial intensity is set
at a possibly generous 30 kt, which is based on earlier ASCAT data
that showed peak winds just above 25 kt.

Given the lack of organization it now appears more likely that
Georgette will succumb to the marginal environment that is embedded
within. Moderate northeasterly shear, SSTs cooling to around 26C
along the forecast track, and dry mid-level humidity is expected
to result in additional weakening and degeneration of the system to
a remnant low within the next day or two. This could occur as soon
as later today, if organized deep convection does not return.

Georgette has made its much anticipated northeastward turn, with the
latest motion estimated at 040/6 kt. Low- to mid-level
southwesterly flow to the south of Frank should continue to steer
Georgette northeastward during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that
time, a low-level ridge is forecast to build to the north of the
cyclone, which will cause Georgette to turn back sharply westward.
The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly east of the
previous forecast to be in better agreement with the latest track
model envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 14.1N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 14.8N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 15.7N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 16.5N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1200Z 16.8N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0000Z 16.7N 132.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 021434
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Georgette Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022

...DISORGANIZED GEORGETTE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW AT ANY TIME...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 130.4W
ABOUT 1470 MI...2370 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Georgette was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 130.4
West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11
km/h). A slow north-northeastward motion is expected to continue
through early Wednesday followed by a turn to the west along with an
increase in forward speed on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Georgette could
become a remnant low at any time within the next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 021434
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 130.4W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 130.4W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 130.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.8N 129.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.7N 129.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.8N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.7N 132.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 130.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 021000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 131.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 131.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.4N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.4N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.2N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.7N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.6N 132.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.1N 134.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
021000Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 131.0W.
02AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 1387 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021600Z, 022200Z, 030400Z AND 031000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 020846
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Like the last couple of nights, Georgette is exhibiting a bursting
pattern this morning, with just enough convective activity to
maintain writing advisories on the tropical cyclone. With that said,
the convection is waning, lacks much organization, and the low-level
center appears to now be exposed to the northeast of the coldest
cloud tops, as indicated by a recently arriving ASCAT-C pass.
Satellite intensity estimates have not changed much despite this
convection, and the peak winds from the scatterometer data was only
26 kt. The initial intensity will remain 30 kt this advisory.

Georgette appears to be making the long-awaited turn to the
north-northeast, with the latest motion estimated at 030/4 kt. This
motion is due to the presence of low- to mid-level southwesterly
flow south of Frank, which is influencing Georgette's steering.
However, after the next 24-48 hours, a low-level ridge is expected
to build back in after Frank departs to the north. The track
guidance responds to this changing synoptic pattern by making
Georgette take a sharp turn westward and then west-southwestward by
the end of the forecast period. The latest track forecast was
shifted a little east of the prior one, but not as far east as the
multi-model consensus aids.

It is unclear how long Georgette will be able to survive the current
marginal environment of moderate (15-20 kt) northeasterly vertical
wind shear and dry (55-60 percent) mid-level relative humidity. Even
sea-surface temperatures gradually cool along its track, from 27 C
currently to below 26 C in 48 hours. Afterwards, both GFS and ECMWF
model simulated IR images suggest the remaining convection with
Georgette will dissipate, and the system is forecast to become a
remnant low by Thursday afternoon. While little change in strength
is shown in the NHC forecast over the next couple of days, it
would not be surprising if the cyclone becomes a remnant low or
loses its well-defined circulation sooner than indicated here.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 13.7N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 14.4N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 15.4N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 16.2N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 16.7N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 16.6N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0600Z 16.1N 134.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 020843
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Georgette Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022

...GEORGETTE FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 130.9W
ABOUT 1515 MI...2435 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Georgette was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 130.9
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph
(7 km/h). A slow north-northeastward motion is expected to continue
through Wednesday followed by a turn to the west along with an
increase in forward speed on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Georgette is expected to become a remnant low after that time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 020843
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
0900 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 130.9W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 130.9W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 131.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.4N 130.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N 130.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.2N 130.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.7N 131.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.6N 132.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.1N 134.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 130.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 020411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 02.08.2022

TROPICAL STORM FRANK ANALYSED POSITION : 22.9N 123.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.08.2022 0 22.9N 123.8W 994 36
1200UTC 02.08.2022 12 24.5N 125.2W 1000 33
0000UTC 03.08.2022 24 26.1N 126.5W 1004 27
1200UTC 03.08.2022 36 27.8N 127.3W 1006 23
0000UTC 04.08.2022 48 29.8N 127.5W 1009 24
1200UTC 04.08.2022 60 31.1N 126.8W 1011 19
0000UTC 05.08.2022 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 131.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.08.2022 0 13.7N 131.0W 1006 25
1200UTC 02.08.2022 12 14.2N 130.6W 1007 24
0000UTC 03.08.2022 24 15.3N 130.5W 1008 25
1200UTC 03.08.2022 36 16.4N 130.7W 1007 25
0000UTC 04.08.2022 48 17.5N 131.5W 1008 25
1200UTC 04.08.2022 60 18.1N 132.8W 1008 28
0000UTC 05.08.2022 72 18.1N 134.7W 1010 25
1200UTC 05.08.2022 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 11.5N 107.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2022 96 11.5N 107.6W 1005 28
1200UTC 06.08.2022 108 12.2N 110.8W 1005 25
0000UTC 07.08.2022 120 12.4N 113.9W 1004 30
1200UTC 07.08.2022 132 12.7N 116.7W 1002 36
0000UTC 08.08.2022 144 12.8N 119.8W 1000 39


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020411

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 020411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.08.2022

TROPICAL STORM FRANK ANALYSED POSITION : 22.9N 123.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.08.2022 22.9N 123.8W MODERATE
12UTC 02.08.2022 24.5N 125.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.08.2022 26.1N 126.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.08.2022 27.8N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2022 29.8N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2022 31.1N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 131.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.08.2022 13.7N 131.0W WEAK
12UTC 02.08.2022 14.2N 130.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2022 15.3N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2022 16.4N 130.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2022 17.5N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2022 18.1N 132.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2022 18.1N 134.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 11.5N 107.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.08.2022 11.5N 107.6W WEAK
12UTC 06.08.2022 12.2N 110.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2022 12.4N 113.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.08.2022 12.7N 116.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.08.2022 12.8N 119.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020411

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 020400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 131.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 131.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.1N 130.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.0N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.0N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.8N 130.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.1N 131.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.0N 133.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.3N 137.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
020400Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 131.2W.
02AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 1400 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND 030400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 020236
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Small bursts of convection continue to develop near the exposed
low-level center of Georgette this evening. Subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS still
estimate winds of 30-33 kt in this system, and the initial
intensity estimate is held at 30 kt for this advisory. Global
models predict the moderate northeasterly to east-northeasterly
vertical wind shear should persist over Georgette for the next few
days. This and the relatively dry environment around the depression
should prevent any future restrengthening. The NHC intensity
forecast still predicts Georgette to become a post-tropical cyclone
in a few days, however given the poor organization of the
convection, this could happen sooner.

Georgette has been meandering west-northwestward at 4 kt. The
system is expected to turn north-northeastward overnight into a
weakness in the subtropical ridge located to the north of the
cyclone. In about two days, the ridge is expected to build back in
and turn Georgette to the west with an increase in forward speed.
The official track forecast is shifted slightly west of the previous
advisory prediction, mostly due to the westward shift in the initial
position.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 13.5N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 14.1N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 15.0N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 16.0N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 16.8N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 17.1N 131.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 17.0N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z 16.3N 137.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 020235
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Georgette Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

...GEORGETTE MEANDERING...
...COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW AT ANY TIME...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 131.2W
ABOUT 1540 MI...2475 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Georgette was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 131.2
West. The depression has been meandering during the past few
hours but its average motion is toward the west-northwest near
5 mph (7 km/h). A slow north-northeastward motion is expected to
start overnight, and this motion should continue through Wednesday.
A turn to the west along with an increase in forward speed is
forecast to occur on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days, and
Georgette could degenerate into a remnant low at any time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 020235
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
0300 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 131.2W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 131.2W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 131.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.1N 130.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.0N 130.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.0N 130.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.8N 130.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.1N 131.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.0N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 16.3N 137.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 131.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 13.3N 130.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 130.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 14.0N 130.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.8N 130.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.8N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.7N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.1N 130.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.0N 131.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.2N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
012200Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 130.8W.
01AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 1388 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020400Z, 021000Z, 021600Z AND 022200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 012033
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Georgette is a poorly organized tropical depression. Visible
satellite imagery is revealing that the low-level circulation
is not well-defined, and deep convection continues to sputter.
Unfortunately, there is no new satellite wind data over the system
this afternoon to provide a better assessment of the low-level wind
field of the depression. The initial intensity is being kept at 30
kt based on the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB.
However, this may be generous.

The depression has been drifting north-northwest at about 4 kt today
toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A slow
north-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight and this
motion should continue through Tuesday night. The ridge is forecast
to strengthen by Thursday, which should cause Georgette to turn
westward along with an increase in forward speed. Models are in
generally good agreement on this scenario, and only minor tweaks
were made to the NHC track forecast for this advisory.

Moderate east-northeasterly shear and a dry airmass should prevent
Georgette from strengthening for the next several days. In a couple
of days the cyclone is expected to move over cooler waters and
encounter a more stable airmass. The combination of these factors
should cause Georgette to degenerate into a remnant low. However,
there is a possibility that the system could dissipate before that
time. There was no change to the NHC intensity forecast from the
previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 13.5N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 14.0N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 14.8N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 15.8N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 16.7N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 17.1N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 17.0N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1800Z 16.2N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 012033
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Georgette Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

...POORLY ORGANIZED GEORGETTE DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 130.9W
ABOUT 1520 MI...2445 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Georgette was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 130.9
West. A slow north-northeastward motion is expected to start
tonight, and this motion should continue through Wednesday. A turn
to the west along with an increase in forward speed is forecast to
occur on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 012033
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
2100 UTC MON AUG 01 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 130.9W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 130.9W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 130.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.0N 130.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.8N 130.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.8N 129.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.7N 130.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.1N 130.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.0N 131.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 16.2N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 130.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 011600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 13.2N 130.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 130.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.8N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.5N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.4N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.4N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.1N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.3N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.6N 134.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 15.8N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
011600Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 130.4W.
01AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 1379 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012200Z, 020400Z, 021000Z AND 021600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 011433
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Georgette continues to be characterized by pulsating and somewhat
disorganized deep convection near it's center of circulation. The
latest Dvorak intensity estimates range from T-1.0 to T-2.5, and a
blend of these values suggests that the initial intensity remains 30
kt.

Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is beginning its
turn toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and the current
motion is north-northwest at 3 kt. A turn to the north-northeast is
expected by tonight, and that motion should continue for a couple of
days. The ridge is forecast to strengthen by late this week, which
should cause Georgette to turn westward along with an increase in
forward speed. Overall, the track model guidance has become a
little more clustered than previous cycles, and there has been a
slight shift to the right in the guidance through 72 h. Therefore,
the latest NHC track forecast was adjusted a little right of the
previous one through that time period, but remains a little to the
left of the consensus.

Over the next several days, Georgette should remain in an
environment of moderate east-northeasterly vertical shear and within
a relatively dry low- to mid-level air mass. By 60 h, the cyclone
should move over waters of 25-26 degrees C. These conditions are
expected to prevent restrengthening of the cyclone and cause it to
degenerate into a remnant low toward the latter part of the week.
The official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one
and is in good agreement with most of the intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 13.4N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 13.8N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 14.5N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 15.4N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 16.4N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 17.1N 129.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 17.3N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 16.6N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1200Z 15.8N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 011432
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Georgette Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

...GEORGETTE NOW HEADING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 130.4W
ABOUT 1495 MI...2405 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Georgette was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 130.4
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph
(6 km/h). A slow north-northeastward motion is expected starting
tonight, and this motion should continue through Wednesday. A turn
to the west along with an increase in forward speed is forecast to
occur on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 011432
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 130.4W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 130.4W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 130.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.8N 130.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 129.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.4N 129.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.4N 129.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 129.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.3N 131.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 16.6N 134.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 15.8N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 130.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 011000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 12.8N 130.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 130.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 13.2N 130.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.8N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.6N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.4N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.0N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.5N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.5N 133.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.4N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
011000Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 130.1W.
01AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 1391 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011600Z, 012200Z, 020400Z AND 021000Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 010847
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Deep convection has increased again near and to the west and
southwest of the center of the tropical cyclone. This is likely a
diurnal fluctuation, and the convection is not very well organized.
The advisory intensity is held at 30 kt, which is the average of
Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB.

The depression has been drifting a little north of west with a
current motion estimate of just 280/2 kt. Georgette is expected to
turn northward or north-northeastward into a weakness in the
subtropical ridge during the next couple of days. Later in the
forecast period, the ridge is likely to build to the north of the
cyclone which should induce a turn toward the west. The official
forecast track is shifted a little eastward from the previous NHC
prediction, toward the latest multi-model consensus guidance.
However, there is a lot of spread in the model tracks, so the
official forecast is of relatively low confidence.

Over the next several days, Georgette should remain in an
environment of moderate east-northeasterly vertical shear and
within a relatively dry low- to mid-level air mass. These
conditions are expected to prevent restrengthening of the cyclone
and cause degeneration into a remnant low in the latter part of the
forecast period. The official intensity forecast is the same as the
previous one and lies between the latest LGEM and DSHIPS guidance
models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 12.8N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 13.2N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 13.8N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 14.6N 129.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 15.4N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 16.0N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 16.5N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 16.5N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0600Z 15.4N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 010845
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Georgette Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

...GEORGETTE MOVING VERY SLOWLY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 130.2W
ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Georgette was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 130.2
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h).
A slow northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast to begin
later today or tonight, and this motion should continue into
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 010844
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
0900 UTC MON AUG 01 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 130.2W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 130.2W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 130.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.2N 130.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.8N 130.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.6N 129.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N 129.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 129.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.5N 130.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.5N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 15.4N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 130.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 010400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 12.7N 130.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 130.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 12.9N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.3N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.0N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.8N 130.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.5N 130.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.0N 130.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.8N 133.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.0N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
010400Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 130.1W.
01AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 1393 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011000Z, 011600Z, 012200Z AND 020400Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 010235
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

Almost all deep convection has collapsed near the center of
Georgette. Last-light visible imagery showed an exposed low-level
circulation and satellite water vapor imagery indicates the
presence of dry air near the inner core of the storm. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB range between 35-25
kt. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt to represent a blend
of the classifications.

Georgette is drifting westward at 3 kt, to the south of a weak
mid-level ridge. The tropical depression is expected to turn
northward at a break in the ridge, though models disagree on the
timing of the turn and this has created a large spread amongst the
track guidance. However, most models do show the ridge
restrengthening by mid-week and steering Georgette westward to
west-southward through the end of the forecast period. The official
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track prediction
and closest to the model consensus aid, TVCE.

Moderate-to-strong easterly vertical wind shear caused by the
outflow from Frank is expected to continue over Georgette for the
next couple of days. This combined with the dry mid-tropospheric
relative humidities around the cyclone will likely prevent
Georgette from restrengthening. The NHC intensity forecast shows
Georgette maintaining tropical depression strength until day 4, when
it is predicted to become a post-tropical remnant low. Though, if
deep convection does not reform near the center, this could happen
even sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 12.7N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 12.9N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 13.3N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 14.0N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 14.8N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 15.5N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 16.0N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 15.8N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0000Z 15.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 010234
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Georgette Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

...GEORGETTE DRIFTS WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 130.1W
ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Georgette was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 130.1
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h).
A slow westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through
tonight. A slow northward motion is forecast to begin on Monday, and
this motion should continue through early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 010234
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
0300 UTC MON AUG 01 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 130.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 130.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 130.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.9N 130.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.3N 130.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.0N 130.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.8N 130.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.5N 130.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.0N 130.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 15.8N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 15.0N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 130.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 312200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 018
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 12.7N 129.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 129.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 12.8N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 13.0N 130.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.6N 130.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.4N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.2N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.9N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.2N 132.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.5N 136.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
312200Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 130.1W.
31JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 1391 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010400Z, 011000Z, 011600Z AND 012200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 312042
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

There has been persistent deep convection near the estimated center
of Georgette for the past several hours, likely due to the
convective diurnal maximum. However, a fortuitous ASCAT-B overpass
that occurred at 1844 UTC over the cyclone indicates that the system
has weakened into a 30 kt tropical depression. Thus, the pulsing
nature of the convection associated with the cyclone over the past
day or so has appeared to have taken its toll.

Georgette has been moving slowly west-southwestward today, or 255/4
kt, to the south of a weak mid-tropospheric ridge. There is no
change to the track reasoning, and model guidance remains in
generally good agreement that the portion of the ridge to the north
of the cyclone should weaken through early this week as Hurricane
Frank passes well to the north. As a result, Georgette should
continue to move slowly west or west-southwest through tonight and
begin drifting northward early this week toward the temporary
weakness in the ridge carved out by Frank. By mid-week, the ridge
is forecast to re-strengthen, forcing the cyclone on a more westward
track. The latest NHC forecast track is near the previous one, and
is close to the TVCE consensus.

Strong easterly shear caused by the outflow from the large
circulation of Frank to the northeast of Georgette should prevent
deep convection from persisting near the center of the cyclone long
enough to support much reintensification. By late in the forecast
period, the system is forecast to reach cooler waters and become
surrounded by a drier airmass. This should cause further weakening,
and Georgette is expected to become a remnant low by day 5, if not
sooner. The official NHC intensity forecast no longer shows that
Georgette will restrengthen into a tropical storm. However, it is
possible some minor fluctuations in intensity could occur through
midweek.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 12.7N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 12.8N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 13.0N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 13.6N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 14.4N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 15.2N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 15.9N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 16.2N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 15.5N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 312040
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Georgette Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

...GEORGETTE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 130.1W
ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Georgette was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 130.1
West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph
(7 km/h). A slow westward or west-southwestward motion is expected
through tonight. A slow northward motion is forecast to begin on
Monday, and this motion should continue through early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 312040
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
2100 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 130.1W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 130.1W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 129.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.8N 130.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.0N 130.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.6N 130.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.4N 130.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.2N 130.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.9N 130.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.2N 132.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 15.5N 136.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 130.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 311600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 13.1N 129.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 129.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.0N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 13.2N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.6N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.3N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.3N 130.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.1N 130.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.7N 131.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.3N 134.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
311600Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 129.7W.
31JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1358 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 312200Z, 010400Z, 011000Z AND 011600Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 311437
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

Deep convection waned through the overnight hours over the center of
Georgette. However, over the past couple of hours some regeneration
of convection has occurred over the cyclone's southern semicircle.
There has been no new satellite wind data over the storm since early
this morning, but the degradation of Georgette's appearance suggests
continued weakening has occurred since the previous advisory. A
blend of the latest CI values from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT
yields an intensity of 35 kt, which will be the initial advisory
intensity.

Georgette is moving slowly westward, or 260/5 kt, to the south of a
mid-tropospheric ridge. The portion of the ridge to the north of the
cyclone should weaken through early this week as Hurricane Frank
passes well to the north. As a result, Georgette should continue to
slow its forward motion and then begin drifting northward early this
week toward the temporary weakness in the ridge carved out by
Frank. By mid-week, the ridge is forecast to re-strengthen,
forcing the cyclone on a more westward track. The latest NHC
forecast track is very similar to the previous one, as the track
guidance has changed little since that time.

The outflow from the large circulation of Frank continues to produce
some strong easterly shear across Georgette that is causing it to
struggle maintaining persistent deep convection. This shear is
forecast to continue for the next couple of days. Therefore,
Georgette is expected to weaken a little more today and be a
tropical depression through early this week. There is some
possiblity that the shear will decrease before Georgette passes
over cooler waters, and some flucuation in intensity is possible
before Georgette becomes a remnant low late in the period. The
latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted slightly lower than the
previous one, and is close to the various multi-model intensity
consensus solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 13.1N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 13.0N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 13.2N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 13.6N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 14.3N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 15.3N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 16.1N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 16.7N 131.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 16.3N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 311437
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

...GEORGETTE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 129.7W
ABOUT 1465 MI...2355 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 129.7 West. Georgette is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the north is
forecast occur on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight weakening is expected through tonight. Then, some
slight restrengthing could occur in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 311436
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 129.7W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 15NE 15SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 129.7W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 129.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.0N 130.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.2N 130.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.6N 130.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.3N 130.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 130.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.1N 130.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 16.7N 131.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 16.3N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 129.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 311000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 13.4N 129.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 129.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.2N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.1N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 13.5N 130.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 14.0N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 15.0N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.0N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.0N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.5N 134.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
311000Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 129.3W.
31JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1329 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 311600Z, 312200Z, 010400Z AND 011000Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 310851
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

After briefly becoming exposed earlier tonight, there was another
deep convective burst near the center of Georgette that started
around 04 UTC. Significant lightning activity was observed on the
GOES-17 GLM around that time, though it lacked organization without
much cyclonic rotation of the flashes in the up-shear direction.
More recently, the convective cloud tops have been warming and are
being sheared off westward by upper-level easterly flow. The latest
satellite intensity estimates continue to provide a wide spread of
values from 30 to 50 kt. However, we also received a partial ASCAT-B
pass over Georgette at 0612 UTC, revealing peak wind-retrievals of
only 20-25 kt on the east side of Georgette. Assuming stronger winds
are occuring on the west side of the cyclone, the latest intensity
was reduced to only 40 kt for this advisory.

Georgette has stubbornly maintained a south of due west heading,
though it might be starting to slow down at 260/6 kt. As previously
discussed, Georgette's track forecast remains challenging, mainly
due to the difficulty in determining when Georgette will finally
halt its westward motion. The steering flow is expected to collapse
as the larger Hurricane Frank passes by well to the north of
Georgette. After this occurs, the steering currents are then
expected to veer out of the south, finally allowing Georgette to
begin a north or north-northeastward motion in 36-60 hours. At the
end of the forecast, a low-level ridge is expected to build back
in north of Georgette, resulting in a westward turn by 120 hours.
Similar to the previous forecast cycle, the GFS remains on the far
right/east side of the track guidance, while the ECMWF and its
ensemble mean remains on the far left/west side. The latest forecast
track leans towards the ECMWF and its ensemble mean as this guidance
has preformed better for Georgette so far. This results in another
westward shift in the NHC forecast track, which is also west of the
multi-model consensus aids that have been heavily influenced by the
poorly preforming GFS track so far.

The intensity forecast for Georgette is more straightforward. At
least moderate easterly vertical wind shear is expected to continue
over Georgette for the next 24-36 hours, and some additional
weakening is expected in the short term. However, there may be a
brief respite in this shear as mid-level relative humidity moistens
some between 48-60 hours, and the latest forecast now shows a bit of
re-intensification in that time period. By the end of the forecast,
Georgette is likely to move towards cooler waters and its remaining
convection will likely fade. However, it is interesting to note the
latest GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and UKMET keep Georgette as a closed
circulation through 120 hours, and so the latest forecast now shows
Georgette as a remnant low at that time. This intensity forecast is
in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids HCCA and IVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 13.3N 129.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 13.2N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 13.1N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 13.5N 130.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 14.0N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 15.0N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 16.0N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 17.0N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 16.5N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 310842
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

...SMALL GEORGETTE A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 129.3W
ABOUT 1435 MI...2305 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 129.3 West. Georgette is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A westward to
west-southwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
later today. The tropical storm is then expected to slow down
further and make a northward turn by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some slight additional weakening is expected later
today, though some slight reintensification could occur early next
week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 310841
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
0900 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 129.3W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 10NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 129.3W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 129.0W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.2N 130.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.1N 130.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.5N 130.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.0N 130.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 17.0N 131.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.5N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 129.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 310400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 13.5N 128.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 128.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.2N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.1N 130.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 13.2N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.5N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.1N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.9N 129.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.0N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
310400Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 128.6W.
31JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1303 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 311000Z, 311600Z, 312200Z AND 010400Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 310239
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 PM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Georgette has looked a little less organized during the past few
hours. Cloud tops associated with its deep convection have warmed,
and its banding features appear to be less defined than they were
earlier today. It's unclear if this is a sign of imminent weakening
or just a reflection of diurnal fluctuations of the tropical
storm's convection. Satellite intensity estimates vary from 30 kt
to 50 kt. The NHC intensity estimate will remain 45 kt for now,
which is notably the same as the TAFB Dvorak assessment.

No changes of note were made to any aspect of the NHC forecast for
Georgette with this advisory. Unfortunately, the track component of
the forecast is still of very low confidence. The small tropical
storm should continue moving generally west-southwestward to
westward for the next day or so. By early Monday, a breakdown of
steering currents should cause the tropical cyclone to take on a
slow meandering motion. The much larger Hurricane Frank is forecast
to move north of Georgette on Sunday and Monday, which could
contribute to a slow eastward drift for Georgette. The GFS is one
example of this scenario, however the ECMWF shows no such eastward
movement, while other models fall between those two solutions. As a
result, even though all models indicate that Georgette will begin
drifting northward early next week, the model spread is quite high.
The NHC track forecast is just a touch west of the previous advisory
at most forecast times beyond 24 h, but is a little east of the
multi-model consensus at most forecast times.

The intensity forecast is more certain. Georgette's current marginal
environment is not likely to change substantially, which
should cause it to slowly weaken through early next week. The
intensity model spread is very low, increasing confidence in this
part of the forecast. NHC's updated intensity forecast is near the
middle of the small guidance envelope, closest to the multi-model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 13.4N 128.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 13.2N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 13.1N 130.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 13.2N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 13.5N 130.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 14.1N 129.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 14.9N 129.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 16.0N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 310238
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 PM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

...GEORGETTE FORECAST TO SLOW TO A CRAWL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK..


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 128.5W
ABOUT 1385 MI...2225 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 128.5 West. Georgette is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to
west-southwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
forecast for Sunday. The tropical storm is expected to slow down
further after that, resulting in a meandering motion through the
beginning of next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is anticipated for the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 310238
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
0300 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 128.5W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 128.5W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 128.2W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.2N 129.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.1N 130.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.2N 130.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.5N 130.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.1N 129.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.9N 129.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 16.0N 129.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 128.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 302200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 13.7N 127.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 127.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 13.3N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.1N 129.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.1N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 13.4N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.8N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.5N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.5N 129.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
302200Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 127.8W.
30JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1269 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310400Z, 311000Z, 311600Z AND 312200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 302045
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Georgette has maintained a consistent structure today, characterized
by persistent convective activity to the south and southwest of the
estimated center. A subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB indicates
that the storm has maintained its intensity, and recent microwave
imagery suggests that the low-level circulation remains well
defined. Thus the initial intensity is held constant at 45 kt,
consistent with the prior advisory.

East-northeasterly steering flow continues to influence the
west-southwestward motion, which has not changed much since the
prior advisory. The current estimated motion is 255/8 kt. Later
tonight, the steering currents are expected to weaken, resulting in
a slower forward speed by tomorrow. In association with the slowing
forward speed, track guidance diverges after 24-36 hours, and the
spread among the guidance members suggests high uncertainty in the
track forecast after 36 hours. Some members of the guidance suite
indicate a sharp turn toward the northeast, while others suggest a
continued west-southwestward motion prior to turning northward later
in the forecast period. The official track forecast is a compromise
between these solutions, close to the HCCA and slightly to
the west of the prior NHC forecast.

The intensity forecast has not changed much since the prior
advisory. East-northeasterly vertical wind shear, close proximity
to the much larger Hurricane Frank, and a relatively dry airmass to
the northeast of Georgette are expected to inhibit significant
intensification throughout the forecast period. The intensity is
forecast to remain steady for the next day or so, with gradual
weakening forecast to occur after the storm turns toward the
northeast. The official intensity forecast is in line with the
consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 13.6N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 13.3N 128.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 13.1N 129.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 13.1N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 13.4N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 13.8N 129.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 14.5N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 15.5N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 302045
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

...GEORGETTE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 127.7W
ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 127.7 West. Georgette is
moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) The storm is
forecast to move on a similar heading and should begin to slow in
the next day or so, resulting in a meandering motion through the
remainder of the weekend. A turn toward the northeast is expected
by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
with gradual weakening anticipated after that.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 302045
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
2100 UTC SAT JUL 30 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 127.7W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 127.7W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 127.3W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.3N 128.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.1N 129.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.1N 130.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.4N 130.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.8N 129.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.5N 129.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 15.5N 129.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 127.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 301611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 30.07.2022

HURRICANE FRANK ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 116.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.07.2022 0 16.4N 116.1W 972 64
0000UTC 31.07.2022 12 17.6N 117.9W 964 74
1200UTC 31.07.2022 24 18.9N 119.6W 964 76
0000UTC 01.08.2022 36 20.5N 121.4W 972 61
1200UTC 01.08.2022 48 22.0N 123.1W 982 53
0000UTC 02.08.2022 60 23.5N 124.7W 990 44
1200UTC 02.08.2022 72 25.2N 125.7W 998 35
0000UTC 03.08.2022 84 27.1N 126.6W 1003 28
1200UTC 03.08.2022 96 28.9N 126.4W 1007 24
0000UTC 04.08.2022 108 30.3N 125.6W 1009 25
1200UTC 04.08.2022 120 30.2N 123.5W 1011 21
0000UTC 05.08.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 126.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.07.2022 0 13.9N 126.8W 1002 31
0000UTC 31.07.2022 12 13.6N 128.6W 1003 26
1200UTC 31.07.2022 24 13.2N 130.1W 1004 26
0000UTC 01.08.2022 36 13.1N 131.2W 1005 25
1200UTC 01.08.2022 48 13.2N 132.2W 1005 28
0000UTC 02.08.2022 60 13.3N 133.3W 1006 25
1200UTC 02.08.2022 72 13.8N 133.9W 1006 25
0000UTC 03.08.2022 84 14.6N 134.5W 1006 27
1200UTC 03.08.2022 96 15.6N 134.8W 1006 27
0000UTC 04.08.2022 108 16.4N 135.5W 1008 28
1200UTC 04.08.2022 120 16.4N 136.7W 1008 30
0000UTC 05.08.2022 132 15.9N 138.2W 1009 27
1200UTC 05.08.2022 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 301610

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 301600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 14.1N 126.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 126.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 13.7N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.4N 129.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.4N 129.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 13.5N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.8N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.4N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.5N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
301600Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 126.9W.
30JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1226 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 310400Z, 311000Z AND 311600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 301437
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

The structure of Georgette continues to show evidence of
northeasterly shear, with most of the convective activity occurring
southwest of the estimated center. Persistent convection near the
center of the storm, as well as subjective and objective Dvorak
estimates from SAB, TAFB, and UW-CIMSS, continue to support an
initial intensity of 45 kt, consistent with the prior advisory.

The mid-level ridge to the west of Hurricane Frank continues to
steer the tropical storm west-southwestward, with a current
estimated motion of 255/9 kt. This motion is expected to continue
during the day today, after which the steering currents are
expected to weaken, resulting in a slower forward motion during the
next couple days. By 72 hours, Georgette is expected to begin
moving northeastward under the influence of southwesterly steering
flow. The track guidance diverges significantly after 36 hours,
with many of the consensus aids indicating a delayed turn toward
the north or northeast compared to the previous official forecast.
The official forecast track is shifted westward from the previous
NHC forecast and represents a blend of the HCCA and the previous
forecast.

The combined influences of east-northeasterly vertical shear and
the proximity to Hurricane Frank are expected to limit the
intensification of Georgette during the next several days. The
intensity is forecast to hold steady during the next day or so,
with gradual weakening expected thereafter before dissipating after
96 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the prior
forecast and aligned with the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 14.0N 126.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 13.7N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 13.4N 129.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 13.4N 129.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 13.5N 129.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 13.8N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 14.4N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 15.5N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 301436
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

...SMALL GEORGETTE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 126.8W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2035 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 126.8 West. Georgette is
moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). The storm is
forecast to move on a similar heading at a slower forward speed for
the next day or so. After that, Georgette's forward movement should
slow further, resulting in a meandering motion through the remainder
of the weekend. A turn toward the northeast is expected by early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
with gradual weakening anticipated after that.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 301436
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
1500 UTC SAT JUL 30 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 126.8W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 126.8W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 126.4W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.7N 128.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.4N 129.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.4N 129.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.5N 129.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.8N 129.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.4N 129.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 15.5N 128.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 126.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 301000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 14.3N 125.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 125.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 13.9N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 13.5N 128.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.4N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.6N 129.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 13.8N 129.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 14.4N 129.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.0N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
301000Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 126.1W.
30JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1196 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301600Z, 302200Z, 310400Z AND 311000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHMC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 300847
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Georgette continues to be affected by northeasterly vertical shear
that is displacing much of its deep convection to the southwest of
the estimated center. Based on a blend of subjective and objective
Dvorak estimates from SAB, TAFB, and UW-CIMSS, the advisory
intensity remains at 45 kt.

The tropical cyclone has continued on its west-southwestward track
and is moving at about 255/9 kt. A mid-level ridge just to the
west of Hurricane Frank should continue to steer Georgette on a
west-southwestward to westward course for the next day or so.
Thereafter, the system should become situated in a region of weak
steering currents between the ridge and broad southwesterly flow to
the south and southwest of Frank. This will likely cause Georgette
to move slowly and erratically during the next 2-3 days. By 72
hours, the weakening cyclone is expected to begin moving
northeastward within the southwesterly low- to mid-level flow.
Most of the track guidance has shifted westward in comparison to the
earlier model runs, and the official forecast is somewhat west of
the previous NHC prediction beyond 36 hours, but not quite as far
west as the latest model consensus.

East-northeasterly shear is forecast to prevail over Georgette
during the next few days, and the low- to mid-level environment is
expected to remain rather dry. This, along with an increasing lack
of low-level inflow due to the influence of Franks's circulation,
should result in gradual weakening. The official forecast is
similar to the previous one and closely follows the latest HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach, HCCA, intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 14.2N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 13.9N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 13.5N 128.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 13.4N 129.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 13.6N 129.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 13.8N 129.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 14.4N 129.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 16.0N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 300844
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

...SMALL GEORGETTE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 125.9W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 125.9 West. Georgette
is moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The
storm is forecast to move on a similar heading at a slower forward
speed for the next day or so. After that, Georgette's forward
movement should slow further, resulting in a meandering motion
through the remainder of the weekend. A turn toward the northeast
is expected by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Not much change in strength is forecast during the next day
or so, with gradual weakening anticipated after that.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 300843
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
0900 UTC SAT JUL 30 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 125.9W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 125.9W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 125.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.9N 127.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.5N 128.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.4N 129.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.6N 129.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.8N 129.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.4N 129.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 16.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 125.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 300410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 30.07.2022

HURRICANE FRANK ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 114.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2022 0 15.0N 114.3W 985 48
1200UTC 30.07.2022 12 16.1N 116.4W 983 50
0000UTC 31.07.2022 24 17.0N 118.3W 983 53
1200UTC 31.07.2022 36 18.1N 120.0W 984 51
0000UTC 01.08.2022 48 19.4N 121.6W 986 52
1200UTC 01.08.2022 60 20.9N 123.2W 986 47
0000UTC 02.08.2022 72 22.3N 124.7W 990 42
1200UTC 02.08.2022 84 23.6N 125.9W 995 36
0000UTC 03.08.2022 96 24.8N 127.0W 1000 30
1200UTC 03.08.2022 108 26.2N 127.2W 1004 27
0000UTC 04.08.2022 120 27.5N 127.5W 1007 29
1200UTC 04.08.2022 132 28.0N 127.1W 1009 23
0000UTC 05.08.2022 144 28.2N 126.3W 1010 22

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 124.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2022 0 14.2N 124.6W 1004 28
1200UTC 30.07.2022 12 13.9N 126.8W 1004 30
0000UTC 31.07.2022 24 13.8N 128.7W 1005 26
1200UTC 31.07.2022 36 13.2N 130.3W 1005 27
0000UTC 01.08.2022 48 13.1N 131.4W 1006 24
1200UTC 01.08.2022 60 13.0N 132.4W 1006 26
0000UTC 02.08.2022 72 13.3N 133.4W 1007 23
1200UTC 02.08.2022 84 13.7N 133.9W 1007 25
0000UTC 03.08.2022 96 14.5N 134.0W 1007 24
1200UTC 03.08.2022 108 15.6N 133.6W 1008 24
0000UTC 04.08.2022 120 16.3N 133.6W 1009 21
1200UTC 04.08.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300410

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 300410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.07.2022

HURRICANE FRANK ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 114.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.07.2022 15.0N 114.3W MODERATE
12UTC 30.07.2022 16.1N 116.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.07.2022 17.0N 118.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.07.2022 18.1N 120.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2022 19.4N 121.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2022 20.9N 123.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2022 22.3N 124.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2022 23.6N 125.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.08.2022 24.8N 127.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.08.2022 26.2N 127.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.08.2022 27.5N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2022 28.0N 127.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2022 28.2N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 124.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.07.2022 14.2N 124.6W WEAK
12UTC 30.07.2022 13.9N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.07.2022 13.8N 128.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.07.2022 13.2N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2022 13.1N 131.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2022 13.0N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2022 13.3N 133.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2022 13.7N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2022 14.5N 134.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2022 15.6N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2022 16.3N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300410

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 300400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 124.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 124.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.1N 126.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 13.7N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.4N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.6N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.0N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.5N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.0N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300400Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 125.2W.
30JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1163 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 300000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301000Z, 301600Z,
302200Z AND 310400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 300240
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 PM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022

Easterly wind shear and a dry environment appear to be taking a
toll on Georgette. Deep convection associated with the tropical
storm has decreased in coverage during the afternoon and evening,
leaving Georgette's center nearly exposed. The initial intensity
remains 45 kt for this intensity based on recent current intensity
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS SATCON.

Georgette's future remains cloudy (lack of cold cloud tops near its
center notwithstanding), due to its marginal surrounding environment
and the potential for interaction with a larger tropical cyclone,
Frank, currently located to the east. For the next day or so, a
low- to mid-level ridge should steer Georgette west-southwestward or
southwestward at a slightly slower speed than its current forward
speed of 11 kt. However, the tropical storm will slow to a crawl as
Frank moves closer and eventually north of Georgette. Confidence in
Georgette's track forecast is quite low once it slows down. In
general, the tropical storm or its remnants should begin to move
northward to northeastward by early next week, however there is a
large degree of spread in the models. The new NHC track forecast is
most similar to the previous official forecast, however this should
not be interpreted as a sign of confidence in the forecast.

Most of the intensity guidance agrees that Georgette will weaken
over the next few days. There's no indication that the tropical
cyclone's environment will become conducive for strengthening, so
weakening seems likely. The main source of disagreement is on how
fast that weakening will occur, and if Georgette will dissipate or
become post-tropical within the next 5 days. Some models like the
GFS and HWRF indicate Georgette could persist longer than the
official forecast indicates, while others like the ECMWF suggest it
could become post-tropical by the middle of next week. The new
official intensity forecast shows Georgette weakening a little
faster than the previous advisory, similar to the latest multi-model
intensity consensus, IVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 14.5N 125.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 14.1N 126.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 13.7N 127.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 13.4N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 13.6N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 14.0N 128.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 14.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 16.0N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 300237
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 PM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022

...GEORGETTE POISED TO WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 125.1W
ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 125.1 West. Georgette is
moving toward the west-southwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). The
tropical storm is forecast to move on a similar heading with a
slower forward speed for the next day or so. After that,
Georgette's forward movement will slow further, resulting in a
meandering motion through the weekend. A turn toward the northeast
is expected by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
with gradual weakening anticipated after that.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 300236
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
0300 UTC SAT JUL 30 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.1W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.1W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 124.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.1N 126.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.7N 127.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.4N 128.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.6N 129.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.0N 128.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.5N 127.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 16.0N 126.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 125.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 14.8N 123.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 123.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.2N 125.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 13.8N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 13.5N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.4N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.7N 128.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.2N 127.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.1N 126.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
292200Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 124.2W.
29JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1131 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300400Z, 301000Z, 301600Z AND 302200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 292037
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022

Conventional satellite imagery shows that tiny Georgette has become
less organized during the past few hours. Although a recent SSMIS
overpass indicated that the inner core and eye-like feature have
remained intact, the deep convection in the east semi-circle has
thinned quite a bit, while the previously noted banding feature in
the north portion of the cyclone has become fragmented. All of
this is more than likely due to some increase in the northeasterly
shear magnitude. The satellite subjective intensity estimates have
decreased, and this advisory's initial intensity is set at 45 kt.

The moderate deep-layer shear should persist during the next several
days; some increase in the magnitude of the inhibiting upper wind
component is forecast beyond 48 hours. This, along with a dry
thermodynamic surrounding environment (45 to 50 percent RH in the
mid-portions of the atmosphere) should induce slow weakening through
the forecast period. There's still some uncertainty as to how long
Georgette will survive. The GFS, however, is the only global model
showing Georgette as a post-tropical cyclone or remnant low beyond
day 4. Therefore, the intensity forecast is an update of the
previous one and is similar to the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus
forecasts.

Georgette's initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or
255/10 kt. The forecast philosophy is unchanged. An east-northeast
to a west-southwest-oriented mid-tropospheric ridge should cause the
cyclone to move generally west-southwestward through the 48-hour
period. Beyond mid-period, Georgette is expected slow its forward
motion, turn northwestward, and then northeastward within the
southeastern peripheral flow of larger and stronger Frank. The NHC
forecast has changed little from this morning's advisory and lies
close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus aid.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 14.7N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 14.2N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 13.8N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 13.5N 127.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 13.4N 128.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 13.7N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 14.2N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 16.1N 126.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 292036
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022

...GEORGETTE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 124.0W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 124.0 West. Georgette is
moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-southwest motion at a gradually slower pace is expected during
the next few of days, followed by a turn toward the northeast by
early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Although little change in strength is forecast
during the couple of days, some fluctuations in intensity are
possible in the short term due to Georgette's compact size. Slow
weakening is forecast to commence by the end of the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 292035
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
2100 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 124.0W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 124.0W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 123.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.2N 125.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.8N 126.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.5N 127.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.4N 128.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.7N 128.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.2N 127.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 16.1N 126.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 124.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 291600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 15.2N 122.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 122.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.7N 124.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.2N 125.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 13.9N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.7N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.0N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.6N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.0N 124.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
291600Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 123.2W.
29JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1092 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292200Z, 300400Z, 301000Z AND
301600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 291438
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022

GOES-17 Proxy-Vis and enhanced IR imagery show that Georgette's
cloud pattern has become more symmetric with colder -77C inner core
cloud tops. An earlier AMSR2 revealed an eye-like feature in the
lower frequency band and a well-developed rain band in the north
part of the cyclone. The eye feature, however, was not evident in
the infrared presentation. Although the Dvorak subjective
T-numbers from TAFB and SAB haven't changed; the initial intensity
is increased to 50 kt in deference to the microwave image.

The global models and the statistical intensity guidance indicate
that the easterly shear will increase within 24 hours, causing
Georgette to weaken slowly. However, due to Georgette's compact
size, intensity fluctuations are possible in the short term. The
latest GFS run shows that Georgette could hang on a little longer
than the NHC forecast indicates, possibly as a post-tropical
cyclone. Therefore, adjusting the forecast may be deemed necessary
to extend the cyclone's life in subsequent advisories. The official
forecast is very close to the HCCA and IVCN intensity aids.

Georgette's initial motion is estimated to be just a bit south of
due west or 260/11 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge stretching
east-northeast to west-southwest should steer the small cyclone
west to west-southwestward during the next 48 hours. Afterward, a
reduction in forward speed along with a turn toward the northeast
is expected in response to larger Frank weakening the ridge and
disrupting the steering flow while passing to the northeast of
Georgette. Although the ECMWF global has been the best performer
in the eastern Pacific this season with respect to forecast track,
the model continues to initialize poorly the compact TC indicating
a significantly weaker system while remaining the left tracker
outlier. The GFS, however, now has a more accurate depiction of
the cyclone's size and vertical depth and shows a more direct
response to Frank's larger wind field. There still is quite a bit
of uncertainty in Georgette's future track as evident by the larger
than usual guidance spread, particularly after the northeast turn.
Consequently, this is a low confidence forecast. The NHC forecast
is similar to the previous advisory through 48 hours, but has been
adjusted to the left beyond that point to agree more with the HCCA
and GEFS/EPS ensemble member solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 15.1N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 14.7N 124.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 14.2N 125.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 13.9N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 13.7N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 14.0N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 14.6N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 291437
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022

...GEORGETTE STRENGTHENS A BIT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 123.0W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 123.0 West. Georgette is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-southwest to
southwest motion at a gradually slower pace is expected during the
next few of days followed by a turn toward the northeast by early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Although Little change in strength is forecast
during the next few days, some fluctuations in intensity are
possible in the short term due to Georgette's compact size.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 291436
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 123.0W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 123.0W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 122.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.7N 124.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.2N 125.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.9N 126.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.7N 127.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.0N 127.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.6N 126.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 123.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 291000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 15.4N 121.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 121.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 14.8N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.3N 124.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 13.8N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 13.8N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.0N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.0N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.1N 123.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
291000Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 121.8W.
29JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1062 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291600Z, 292200Z, 300400Z AND 301000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 290837
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022

There has been little change in Georgette's structure overnight.
Earlier microwave imagery and more recent geostationary satellite
data continue to suggest that the cyclone's low-level center is
located near the eastern side of the primary convective mass. This
is due to moderate easterly shear. Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates remained unchanged, and therefore still support an
initial wind speed of 45 kt.

The cyclone is moving south of due west, or 260 degrees at 9 kt.
Georgette is forecast to move west-southwestward to
southwestward with a deceleration in forward speed as the much
larger and stronger Tropical Storm or Hurricane Frank passes to the
northeast. The latest dynamical model guidance shows Georgette
moving farther westward in the next 36 to 48 hours, before the
storm stalls when Frank finally passes Georgette's longitude. After
that time, the guidance takes the smaller tropical cyclone
(Georgette) northeastward in the flow around the southeastern side
of Frank. Most of the models keep Georgette separate for the
next 3 to 4 days, but there has been a significant increase in the
spread of guidance tonight, and the uncertainty in the track
forecast is unusually large. The official forecast has been
adjusted westward through 48 hours to be in better agreement with
the various track aids. After that time, the forecast is a blend of
the GFS ensemble mean and the HFIP corrected consensus.

Moderate easterly to northeasterly shear is forecast to continue
over Georgette during the next few days. This is likely to result
in little overall change in strength through 36 hours. After
that time, the official forecast calls for some weakening as the
vertical shear is forecast to increase. Although the NHC forecast
calls for Georgette to dissipate in 4 to 5 days, some of the
guidance suggests that this could occur sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 15.3N 121.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 14.8N 123.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 14.3N 124.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 13.8N 125.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 13.8N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 31/1800Z 14.0N 125.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 15.0N 125.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 17.1N 123.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 290836
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022

...COMPACT GEORGETTE STILL MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 121.8W
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 121.8 West. Georgette is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-southwest to
southwest motion at a gradually slower pace is expected during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Georgette is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 290836
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
0900 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 121.8W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 15SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 121.8W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 121.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.8N 123.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.3N 124.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.8N 125.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.8N 126.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.0N 125.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.0N 125.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 17.1N 123.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 121.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 290415

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 29.07.2022

TROPICAL STORM FRANK ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 111.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.07.2022 0 12.8N 111.4W 994 43
1200UTC 29.07.2022 12 13.9N 112.8W 992 44
0000UTC 30.07.2022 24 14.7N 114.8W 990 44
1200UTC 30.07.2022 36 15.7N 116.5W 989 44
0000UTC 31.07.2022 48 17.0N 118.4W 988 47
1200UTC 31.07.2022 60 18.6N 120.2W 990 44
0000UTC 01.08.2022 72 20.0N 122.3W 991 47
1200UTC 01.08.2022 84 21.5N 124.0W 992 44
0000UTC 02.08.2022 96 22.7N 125.6W 995 39
1200UTC 02.08.2022 108 23.9N 126.6W 999 32
0000UTC 03.08.2022 120 25.1N 127.3W 1002 27
1200UTC 03.08.2022 132 26.3N 127.9W 1005 24
0000UTC 04.08.2022 144 26.7N 128.5W 1007 22

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 120.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.07.2022 0 14.8N 120.2W 1005 27
1200UTC 29.07.2022 12 13.9N 121.9W 1005 25
0000UTC 30.07.2022 24 13.1N 123.4W 1005 23
1200UTC 30.07.2022 36 12.6N 124.4W 1005 26
0000UTC 31.07.2022 48 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290415

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 290415

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.07.2022

TROPICAL STORM FRANK ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 111.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.07.2022 12.8N 111.4W MODERATE
12UTC 29.07.2022 13.9N 112.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.07.2022 14.7N 114.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.07.2022 15.7N 116.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.07.2022 17.0N 118.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.07.2022 18.6N 120.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2022 20.0N 122.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2022 21.5N 124.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2022 22.7N 125.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2022 23.9N 126.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2022 25.1N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2022 26.3N 127.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2022 26.7N 128.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 120.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.07.2022 14.8N 120.2W WEAK
12UTC 29.07.2022 13.9N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.07.2022 13.1N 123.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.07.2022 12.6N 124.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290415

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 290400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 15.6N 120.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 120.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.0N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.3N 123.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 13.8N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 13.7N 124.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 14.1N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.2N 123.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.7N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290400Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 120.8W.
29JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GEORGETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1041 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291000Z, 291600Z, 292200Z AND 300400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 290238
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Georgette remains a very compact tropical storm. Satellite images
show that the system remains sheared, with the low-level center
estimated to be near on the northeast side of the main of area of
deep convection. The system's outflow is also restricted on the
east side due to the shear. The Dvorak estimates remains steady at
3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is held at
that value.

The storm continues to move south of due west, or 260 degrees, at 10
kt. A slightly slower west-southwest to southwest motion is expected
during the next couple of days. However, as much larger and stronger
Frank passes to the north, the steering flow should cause Georgette
to stall and then turn northeastward or northward. The NHC track
forecast has been adjusted southward during the first 48 hours and
then eastward from 60-96 hours, trending toward the latest consensus
models.

Georgette is expected to remain relatively steady in strength during
the next couple of days as moderate northeasterly shear persists.
However, after Frank passes to the north of Georgette, weakening
should occur when the system moves along Frank's trough axis and
gradually becomes more embedded in its circulation. The NHC
intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and near
the middle of the guidance envelope. Although Georgette is
predicted to dissipate in 5 days, it is possible that it could open
into a trough sooner than that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 15.5N 120.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 15.0N 121.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 14.3N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 13.8N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 13.7N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 31/1200Z 14.1N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 15.2N 123.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 18.7N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 290237
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...COMPACT GEORGETTE STILL MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 120.7W
ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 120.7 West. Georgette is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-southwest to
southwest motion at a gradually slower pace is expected during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days.

Georgette is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 290236
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
0300 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 120.7W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 120.7W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 120.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.0N 121.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.3N 123.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.8N 124.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.7N 124.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 14.1N 124.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 15.2N 123.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 18.7N 121.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 120.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 282053
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022

After the previous advisory, there was a high-resolution GMI
microwave pass over Georgette at 1522 UTC that indicated that deep
convection mentioned in the previous discussion may have helped to
align the low and mid-level centers. More recently, Georgette has
maintained a small area deep convection between -70 to -75 C near
its center, though there is evidence of easterly shear impinging on
the outflow layer. Dvorak satellite estimates were T3.0/45-kt from
both TAFB and SAB, and T2.9/43-kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial
intensity is being held at 45-kt this advisory.

Georgette has been moving right of the previous forecast track,
maintaining a south of due west heading at 260/10 kt, a bit faster
than before. Part of this faster and more rightward motion could be
due in part to the cyclone being more vertically aligned than
depicted in the dynamical models. In fact, the latest 12 UTC GFS and
ECMWF are still struggling to resolve Georgette's current structure,
with both models depicting the mid-level vortex tilted about 100 n
mi NNE of the low-level center, which does not match the center
embedded in the deep convection as seen on visible satellite imagery
currently. Regardless, the track guidance has made a notable shift
right this forecast cycle, and more guidance keeps Georgette
separate from the larger circulation of Frank to its east over the
next 3-4 days. Thus, the latest track forecast now shows a faster
and farther westward track over the next 48 hours, favoring the
right side of the track guidance envelope due to the more vertically
coupled structure. After 60 hours, the tropical cyclone is expected
to make a sharp turn to the north and then northeast as it becomes
embedded in large-scale monsoonal southwesterly flow to the south of
the larger low-level circulation of Frank. he latest NHC forecast
leans heavily on a blend between the latest ECMWF forecast (EMXI)
and its ensemble mean (EMNI), which have been on the right side of
the guidance envelop. However, given the still large west-to-east
spread in the ensemble tracks in 72 hours, the track forecast still
has higher-than-normal uncertainty.

Georgette still has an opportunity to intensify a bit more in the
short-term, as the easterly shear is not expected to increase much
in the next 24 hours as the cyclone remains over 28C sea surface
temperatures. However, something to watch out for is the possibility
of dry-air entrainment given the very dry mid-level relative
humidity environment. Stable stratocumulus clouds are also seen
immediately to the northeast of Georgette's cirrus shield, and if
that is ingested into the core, it could disrupt the storm's
structure. After 36 hours, the easterly shear could increase further
as Frank's upper-level outflow begins to impinge on the much smaller
Georgette. At the end of the forecast, Georgette is forecast to be
caught in strong southwesterly monsoonal flow to the south of Frank
and it could open up into a trough axis by 120 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast is quite similar to the previous one, and still
lies near the LGEM guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 15.6N 120.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 15.1N 121.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 14.6N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 14.1N 123.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 13.7N 124.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 13.8N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 14.7N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 17.5N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 282045
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...GEORGETTE REMAINS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 120.1W
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 120.1 West. Georgette is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the
west-southwest and then southwest is anticipated to begin tonight
and into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
A little additional strengthening is forecast tonight followed by
little change in intensity through the weekend.

Georgette is a small tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward only up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 282044
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
2100 UTC THU JUL 28 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 120.1W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 120.1W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 119.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.1N 121.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.6N 122.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.1N 123.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.7N 124.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.8N 124.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.7N 124.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 17.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 120.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 281538 CCA
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 5...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Corrected typo in first paragraph

Georgette's structure on conventional satellite imagery remains
distinct this morning, with a small yet intense central dense
overcast with cloud tops as cold at -80 C near where the center is
estimated currently. The 1 minute GOES-17 data, in combination with
some cyclonically rotating GLM flashes, has been helpful in
determining the center location on first-light visible, which
appears more embedded in the convection than previously expected. A
1234 UTC SSMIS microwave pass also hints at this more embedded
structure. The initial intensity remains 45-kt in closest agreement
with the 1200 UTC Dvorak estimate from TAFB.

Georgette's center may have relocated a bit closer to the convection
this morning, but the current motion is still estimated at south of
due west at 260/9 kt. As previously discussed, a northeast to
southwest-oriented ridge should continue to steer Georgette
west-southwestward or southwestward for the next 12-24 hours, and
the guidance is in decent agreement of the track during this time
frame. However, after 24 hours, the track forecast becomes highly
problematic as the larger circulation of Frank approaches from the
east. The majority of the deterministic track aids respond to Frank
by quickly absorbing Georgette into its larger circulation, with the
trackers quickly shifting to the center of Frank between the 36-60
hour forecast. However, this apparent absorption solution is not a
done deal, and there is a non-negligible number of European ensemble
members that keep Georgette a distinct feature beyond the next 2-3
days. In addition, it is primarily the stronger and rightward
ensemble track members that have this solution, and Georgette is
already stronger and right-of-track compared to much of the
deterministic guidance this morning. For these reasons, the latest
track forecast was nudged further west compared to the previous one,
attempting to the account for the possibility that the
stronger-rightward ECMWF ensemble members could verify, and now
shows dissipation at 120 hours, which is a little later than the
previous forecast. Needless to say though, the track forecast has
higher-than-normal uncertainty due to the difficulty in forecasting
these binary TC interactions.

Intensity-wise, Georgette still could intensify a bit more today in
a moderate easterly shear environment while over 28-29 C sea-surface
temperatures. However, mid-level relative humidity diagnosed by
SHIPS guidance remains quite low, and the shear could still import
dry air into Georgette's tiny core and disrupt its current
convective structure. After today, the majority of the guidance
either maintains or weakens the tropical storm, and the latest
intensity forecast will continue to show a steady state 50-kt
tropical storm from 24-48 hours. Assuming Frank does get close to
Georgette, its easterly upper-level outflow and westerly low-level
inflow could further increase the shear after 48 hours, and gradual
weakening is shown after that time. At 120 hours, Georgette is
forecast to open up into a trough as Frank either absorbs it or
passes by to its north. The NHC intensity forecast is in closest
agreement to the latest LGEM guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 15.8N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 15.2N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 14.5N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 14.0N 121.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 13.9N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 13.8N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 14.0N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 14.8N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 281454
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Georgette's structure on convectional satellite imagery remains
distinct this morning, with a small yet intense central dense
overcast with cloud tops as cold at -80 C near where the center is
estimated currently. The 1 minute GOES-17 data, in combination with
some cyclonically rotating GLM flashes, has been helpful in
determining the center location on first-light visible, which
appears more embedded in the convection than previously expected. A
1234 UTC SSMIS microwave pass also hints at this more embedded
structure. The initial intensity remains 45-kt in closest agreement
with the 1200 UTC Dvorak estimate from TAFB.

Georgette's center may have relocated a bit closer to the convection
this morning, but the current motion is still estimated at south of
due west at 260/9 kt. As previously discussed, a northeast to
southwest-oriented ridge should continue to steer Georgette
west-southwestward or southwestward for the next 12-24 hours, and
the guidance is in decent agreement of the track during this time
frame. However, after 24 hours, the track forecast becomes highly
problematic as the larger circulation of Frank approaches from the
east. The majority of the deterministic track aids respond to Frank
by quickly absorbing Georgette into its larger circulation, with the
trackers quickly shifting to the center of Frank between the 36-60
hour forecast. However, this apparent absorption solution is not a
done deal, and there is a non-negligible number of European ensemble
members that keep Georgette a distinct feature beyond the next 2-3
days. In addition, it is primarily the stronger and rightward
ensemble track members that have this solution, and Georgette is
already stronger and right-of-track compared to much of the
deterministic guidance this morning. For these reasons, the latest
track forecast was nudged further west compared to the previous one,
attempting to the account for the possibility that the
stronger-rightward ECMWF ensemble members could verify, and now
shows dissipation at 120 hours, which is a little later than the
previous forecast. Needless to say though, the track forecast has
higher-than-normal uncertainty due to the difficulty in forecasting
these binary TC interactions.

Intensity-wise, Georgette still could intensify a bit more today in
a moderate easterly shear environment while over 28-29 C
sea-surface temperatures. However, mid-level relative humidity
diagnosed by SHIPS guidance remains quite low, and the shear could
still import dry air into Georgette's tiny core and disrupt its
current convective structure. After today, the majority of the
guidance either maintains or weakens the tropical storm, and the
latest intensity forecast will continue to show a steady state 50-kt
tropical storm from 24-48 hours. Assuming Frank does get close to
Georgette, its easterly upper-level outflow and westerly low-level
inflow could further increase the shear after 48 hours, and gradual
weakening is shown after that. At 120 hours, Georgette is forecast
to open up into a trough as Frank either absorbs it or passes by to
its north. The NHC intensity forecast is in closest agreement to
the latest LGEM guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 15.8N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 15.2N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 14.5N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 14.0N 121.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 13.9N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 13.8N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 14.0N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 14.8N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 281446
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...GEORGETTE HOLDING STEADY NOW BUT HAS AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 118.7W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 118.7 West. Georgette is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) but a turn to the
west-southwest or southwest is anticipated today or tonight into
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
A little additional strengthening is forecast today or tonight
followed by little change in intensity through the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 281445
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 118.7W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 118.7W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 118.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.2N 119.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.5N 121.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.0N 121.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.9N 122.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.8N 122.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 14.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 14.8N 123.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 118.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 280847
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Georgette remains a compact tropical cyclone with a persistent area
of deep convection located near the center and over the
northwestern portion of the circulation. Moderate easterly shear is
currently limiting the convective activity over the southeastern
portion of the tropical cyclone. A couple of timely scatterometer
overpasses have been very helpful in locating the center overnight.
The ASCAT B instrument revealed peak winds of 36 kt. Given the
small size of the tropical cyclone and typical undersampling of the
ASCAT instrument, the initial intensity has been set at 45 kt. That
is in line with the latest TAFB Dvorak T-number of T3.0.

There has been a change in the latest global model guidance
regarding the future of Georgette. The ECMWF which had been slowing
Georgette, and then moving the cyclone around the eastern portion
of Tropical Storm Frank's larger circulation now shows the smaller
Georgette opening up into a trough and being absorbed within
Frank's outer circulation within 72 hours. That is in line with the
GFS and UKMET model guidance, and the majority of ensemble tracks
from the global models. Therefore, the updated NHC forecast now
calls for Georgette to dissipate within 96 hours, but this could
occur somewhat sooner. In the shorter term, some slight
strengthening is possible but moderate easterly is likely to
prevent significant intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is
in best agreement with the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids.

Georgette is now moving west-southwestward or 255/8 kt. A northeast
to southwest-oriented mid-level ridge should steer Georgette west-
southwestward to southwestward over the next day or two. After
that time, Georgette's forward speed is expected to slow as some
binary interaction should occur between the two tropical cyclones.
Given the complexity of the forecast, the global model guidance is
in somewhat better agreement and the confidence in the first couple
of days of the forecast is a little higher than before. Beyond that
time however, there is again higher-than-normal uncertainty due to
future interaction of the cyclones.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 15.8N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 15.3N 118.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 14.4N 120.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 13.9N 121.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 13.6N 121.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 13.6N 121.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 14.2N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 280846
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...COMPACT GEORGETTE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 117.5W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 117.5 West. Georgette
is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).
A west-southwestward to southwestward motion with a decrease in
forward speed is anticipated over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional slight strengthening is
possible today or tonight with little change in strength expected
Friday and Friday night.

Georgette is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 280846
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
0900 UTC THU JUL 28 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 117.5W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 117.5W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 117.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.3N 118.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.4N 120.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.9N 121.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.6N 121.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.6N 121.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.2N 121.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 117.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 280239
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 27 2022

...COMPACT GEORGETTE A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 116.6W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 116.6 West. Georgette
is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn to
the west-southwest and southwest with a decrease in forward speed
is anticipated over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so,
followed by little change in intensity thereafter.

Georgette is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 280239
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
0300 UTC THU JUL 28 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 116.6W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 116.6W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 116.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.8N 117.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.0N 119.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.3N 120.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.0N 120.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.5N 121.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.3N 122.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 17.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 116.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 272053
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 27 2022

The satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone this afternoon
remains well organized, albeit very compact. The well curved band
seen earlier this morning on microwave has evolved into a small
central dense overcast with cloud top temperatures of -70 to -75 C,
and the center estimated to be embedded within this cirrus canopy.
Dvorak satellite estimates from the various agencies were T2.5/35-kt
from TAFB, T2.0/30-kt from SAB, and T2.4/34-kt from UW-CIMSS ADT.
Unfortunately today's ASCAT swaths missed the small wind field of
the cyclone, but given the healthy structure seen on satellite
imagery and the higher subjective and objective estimates, the
initial intensity is set at 35-kt, upgrading Tropical Depression
Eight-E to Tropical Storm Georgette.

Georgette has been moving just north of due west today with the
motion estimated at 275/8 kt. For the first 24 hours, the storm's
motion is expected to gradually bend westward and then
west-southwestward as its influenced by a weak mid-level ridge
oriented southwest-to-northeast ahead of the cyclone. Afterwards,
the track forecast becomes increasingly uncertain and complex. As
mentioned previously, larger tropical storm Frank will be
approaching Georgette from the east, and its outer wind field will
likely have some influence on Georgette's motion. Subtle differences
in structure and distance between Frank and Georgette could have
large implications on how far westward Georgette gets in the 3-4 day
forecast period. This is illustrated by the most recent ECMWF
ensemble tracks, which show an across-track spread of more than 500
n mi in just 72 hours, which is roughly 5 times the average forecast
track error at that forecast period. To add to the uncertainty, the
GFS and UKMET models do not appear to capture the tiny vortex of
Georgette well in their most recent cycle, and quickly absorb it in
Frank's larger circulation. Favoring a solution that keeps Georgette
a separate entity, the latest track forecast leans more heavily on a
blend between the ECMWF, its ensemble mean, and Canadian, which
mostly keep Georgette as a coherent feature through the forecast
period. This track is further north of the previous track early on,
and also takes Georgette further west over the next 3 days.
Afterwards, The larger monsoonal flow that is expected to wrap up
into Frank's larger circulation will likely also capture Georgette,
and a sharp turn to the north and north-northeast is now predicted
at the end of the forecast period. This current track forecast
remains low confidence and larger-than normal adjustments may be
necessary if Frank ends up getting closer and exerting more
influence on Georgette's track than currently indicated here.

The intensity forecast also remains challenging, both due to the
small size of Georgette, and the looming potential for its
interaction with Frank located further east. Easterly vertical wind
shear of 10-15 knots is expected to continue for the next couple of
days as the storm traverses over 28-29 C sea surface temperatures in
a relatively dry mid-level environment. The small structure of
Georgette also hints at the the potential for rapid intensity
changes, both up or down. Assuming occasional dry-air entrainment
could occur, only gradual intensification is shown over the next 36
hours, peaking Georgette as a 50 kt tropical storm. After that time,
the outflow from Frank to its east may result in a more hostile
environment, and most of the intensity guidance levels off at that
time. At the end of the forecast, Georgette is expected to move over
cooler SSTs and even higher shear, which could begin a weakening
trend. The latest intensity forecast is a bit higher than the
previous cycle, but is in fairly good agreement with the latest HCCA
and IVCN consensus aids. This intensity forecast is also low
confidence.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 16.5N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 16.2N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 15.6N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 15.2N 120.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 14.8N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 14.6N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 14.6N 123.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 15.3N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 17.8N 121.6W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 272048
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 27 2022

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TINY TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 115.9W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 115.9 West. Georgette is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn to the
west-southwest is anticipated over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast over the next
24-48 hours followed by little change in intensity thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 272048
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
2100 UTC WED JUL 27 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 115.9W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 115.9W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 115.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.2N 117.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.6N 118.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.2N 120.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.8N 121.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.6N 122.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.6N 123.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 15.3N 123.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 17.8N 121.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 115.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 271459
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

The area of low pressure we have been monitoring more than 500 miles
southwest of the Baja California peninsula has continued to become
better organized this morning. First light visible imagery shows
cold convective cloud tops near the estimated center that also
appear to be rotating cyclonically. While we haven't had any recent
C-band scatterometer passes near the center of this system, a
recent KU-band scatterometer showed plenty of non-rain contaminated
winds to help confirm that a closed circulation exists. Subjective
Dvorak classifications were up to T2.0/30-kt from TAFB and
T1.5/25-kt from SAB. A recently arriving SSMIS pass at 1159 UTC
also showed a well-defined curve band wrapping at least 75 percent
around the northwestern side of the system. All these data indicate
a new tropical depression has formed, and the initial intensity
will be set at 30 kt this advisory.

Currently the depression is moving westward at 275/6 kt. A large
deep-layer ridge is situated north of the cyclone which should steer
it on a general westward to west-southwestward heading over the next
day or so. Afterwards, the larger circulation of Tropical Storm
Frank is expected to get close enough to initiate binary interaction
with the depression. The net result of this interaction is that the
depression is likely to bend even more southward than the
larger-scale steering flow would initially suggest, and there is
some chance that Frank may capture the smaller depression. For now,
the track forecast keeps Frank and TD Eight-E separate, showing a
very slow west-northwestward motion towards the end of the forecast
period. This track forecast is roughly follows the TVCE aid early
on, but is slower later in the forecast period due to uncertainty
with interaction with Frank to the east. This initial track forecast
is of low confidence.

The intensity forecast is also challenging and strongly related to
how much interaction this depression has with the larger circulation
of Frank. Assuming the depression remains separate, environmental
conditions only appear marginally favorable for intensification in
the short-term, with moderate easterly vertical wind shear, and
plenty of nearby dry air that could get ingested into the small
circulation at any time. For these reasons, the intensity forecast
only shows modest intensification over the next 24-48 hours and
caps the storm at 40 kt thereafter due to uncertainty in its future
evolution near Frank. This is roughly in line with the latest SHIPS
guidance, but is lower than the HCCA and other consensus intensity
aids which are biased by the larger and stronger wind field of
Frank later on in the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 16.3N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 16.0N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 15.2N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 14.4N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 14.0N 118.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 14.0N 119.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 14.3N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 15.0N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 16.1N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 271455
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eight-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 114.8W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E
was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 114.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn
west-southwestward over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 271454
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022
1500 UTC WED JUL 27 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 114.8W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 114.8W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.0N 115.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.2N 117.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.4N 118.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.0N 118.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.0N 119.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.3N 119.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 15.0N 121.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 16.1N 124.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 114.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>