Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANK-22
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 022034
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Frank Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Frank has failed to produce organized deep convection since last
night, and the system has been reduced to a well-defined low-level
cloud swirl over the open waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean. Since
Frank no longer satisfies the criteria of a tropical cyclone, this
will be the final NHC advisory on now post-tropical Frank.

The cyclone is expected to gradually turn northward during the next
couple of days as it moves around the western periphery of a distant
low-level ridge. Although Frank is believed to be still producing
some 34-kt winds in its northeastern quadrant, weakening is expected
through midweek as the cyclone continues to spin down over cool
SSTs. The system is forecast to open into a trough and dissipate by
early Friday. For additional information on the post-tropical
cyclone please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 25.7N 125.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 03/0600Z 27.0N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 03/1800Z 29.0N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/0600Z 31.1N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1800Z 32.9N 126.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 022033
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Frank Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022

...FRANK DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 125.9W
ABOUT 715 MI...1155 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Frank
was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 125.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h). A gradual turn toward the north is expected over the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and
the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate by early Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center in the northeastern quadrant.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the
post-tropical cyclone please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 022032
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
2100 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 125.9W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 125.9W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 125.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.0N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 29.0N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 31.1N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 32.9N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 125.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 021611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.08.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 131.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.08.2022 0 14.0N 131.0W 1007 27
0000UTC 03.08.2022 12 15.3N 130.6W 1008 25
1200UTC 03.08.2022 24 16.4N 130.5W 1008 23
0000UTC 04.08.2022 36 17.3N 131.4W 1009 22
1200UTC 04.08.2022 48 18.1N 132.6W 1010 25
0000UTC 05.08.2022 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM FRANK ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 125.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.08.2022 0 24.4N 125.2W 1001 31
0000UTC 03.08.2022 12 26.2N 126.6W 1005 27
1200UTC 03.08.2022 24 27.9N 127.6W 1007 24
0000UTC 04.08.2022 36 30.0N 127.9W 1009 24
1200UTC 04.08.2022 48 31.4N 127.2W 1011 18
0000UTC 05.08.2022 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.4N 111.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.08.2022 108 13.4N 111.6W 1006 24
1200UTC 07.08.2022 120 14.1N 113.7W 1007 23
0000UTC 08.08.2022 132 14.5N 116.9W 1007 23
1200UTC 08.08.2022 144 15.0N 120.0W 1008 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021610

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 021438
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Organized deep convection associated with Frank ceased overnight,
and the tropical storm should become post-tropical very soon. The
weakening cyclone is moving northwest near 10 kt, and should
gradually bend toward the north over the next 36 h, then
north-northeast by Thursday, steered primarily by the low-level
flow. The latest TAFB Dvorak Current Intensity estimate is 35 kt, so
the initial intensity is set at that value. Continued weakening
will occur over the next few days while Frank gradually spins down
over cold water with little or no convection to sustain it.
Dissipation is forecast by nearly all of the dynamical models near
or just after 60 h. No changes of note were made to the NHC track or
intensity forecasts, both of which are near the model consensus
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 24.8N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 26.1N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 03/1200Z 28.0N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/0000Z 30.0N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1200Z 32.0N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0000Z 33.7N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 021437
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022

...FRANK WILL LIKELY BECOME POST-TROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 125.4W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 125.4 West. Frank is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual bend
toward the north is expected over the next day and a half, followed
by a turn toward the north-northeast by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is expected for the next couple of days. Frank is
forecast to become post-tropical this afternoon and dissipate by
the end of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 021437
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 125.4W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 125.4W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 125.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.1N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.0N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.0N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.0N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.7N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 125.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 021000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 23.6N 124.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 124.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.2N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.0N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.9N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 31.0N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.8N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
021000Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 124.9W.
02AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 668 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021600Z, 022200Z, 030400Z AND 031000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 020838
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Only a tiny region of -45 to -50 degree Celsius cloud top
temperatures remain with Frank southeast of its center this morning.
In fact, the tropical cyclone appears well on its way to becoming a
low-level cloud swirl devoid of any remaining deep convection.
Subjective and objective Dvorak classifications range from 30-kt to
45-kt this morning. Absent of any recent scatterometer data, but
noting that the passes yesterday afternoon had a large region of
greater than 40 kt winds, the initial intensity was held at 40-kt
this advisory. Frank should continue to gradually spin down over
20-22 C ocean waters as it moves further into a more stable
environment. The meager amount of cold cloud tops near Frank now
already do not meet the necessary criteria of a tropical cyclone,
and it is likely the storm will become post-tropical later today.
Most of the guidance now suggests Frank will open up into a trough
by 72 hours, and that is reflected in the latest forecast, showing
the remnant low dissipating about 300 n mi west of the California
coast.

Frank is still moving to the northwest at 310/9 kt. Even as Frank
becomes more shallow, the low-level steering flow will still enable
Frank to recurve between a narrow low-level ridge off of the Baja
California peninsula and a prominent deep-layer trough well west of
California. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and only
slight changes were needed for the latest track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 24.0N 124.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 25.2N 125.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 03/0600Z 27.0N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 03/1800Z 28.9N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0600Z 31.0N 127.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1800Z 32.8N 126.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 020836
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022

...FRANK EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 124.7W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 124.7 West. A gradual
turn toward the north-northwest, north, and then north-northeast at
a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast, and Frank is expected to become
post-tropical later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 020835
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
0900 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 124.7W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 124.7W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 124.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.2N 125.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.0N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 28.9N 127.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 31.0N 127.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 32.8N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 124.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 020400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 23.0N 123.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 123.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.5N 125.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.2N 126.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.1N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.2N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 32.0N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 33.8N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
020400Z POSITION NEAR 23.5N 124.1W.
02AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 676 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND
030400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 020232
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Frank continues to produce a small patch of moderate convection near
its center, but cloud tops of -50 degrees Celsius appear more
related to remnant cirrus rather than the convection itself.
Assuming continued weakening of the circulation since the afternoon
ASCAT passes, Frank's initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt, which
is also a blend of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.
Frank's large circulation will continue to spin down over waters of
20-22 degrees Celsius over the next couple of days, but the NHC
intensity forecast is near the higher end of the guidance through
that period, favoring the slower decay shown by the GFS global model
fields. Frank should lose its remaining convection soon and become
post-tropical by 24 hours, and all global models indicate the
remnant low should open up into a trough in 3 or 4 days about
300 n mi west of the California coast.

Frank slowed down a little bit today, and is moving toward the
northwest (310/8 kt). Although it's decaying, Frank is essentially
expected to recurve around strong mid-level ridging over the
southwestern United States and ahead of a deep-layer trough well
west of California. There is good model consensus on this
scenario, and only a slight westward adjustment was required on the
new forecast after 24 hours based on the lastest track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 23.4N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 24.5N 125.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 26.2N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 03/1200Z 28.1N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0000Z 30.2N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1200Z 32.0N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0000Z 33.8N 126.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 020231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

...FRANK FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 124.0W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 124.0 West. Frank is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn
toward the north-northwest, north, and then north-northeast at a
slightly faster forward speed is expected through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Frank is
expected to become post-tropical by late Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 020231
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
0300 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 124.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 124.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 123.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.5N 125.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.2N 126.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.1N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.2N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.0N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.8N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 124.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 22.4N 123.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 123.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.0N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.5N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.4N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.4N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 31.4N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 33.0N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
012200Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 123.5W.
01AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 693 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020400Z, 021000Z, 021600Z
AND 022200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 012037
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 PM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Frank's convection continues to fade as it maintains its trek over
cooler waters. In response, both subjective and objective Dvorak
numbers are decreasing. In addition, we received a direct overhead
ASCAT-B pass at 1820 UTC, which showed a peak wind retrieval of
43-kt in the northern semicircle of the storm. Assuming a little
undersampling from this instrument, the intensity was reduced to 45
kt this advisory, favoring the lower end of Dvorak estimates.

Frank is still moving northwestward at 310/10 kt. There is little
change in the track reasoning this cycle. Frank's track should
gradually bend more poleward as it becomes a shallow vortex and is
steered by the southerly flow ahead of a deep-layer trough. The
latest NHC track forecast remains near the consensus aids, and is
just a touch left of the previous forecast.

Sea surface temperatures under the storm are already down to 22 C
and only cool further along the forecast track. The latest model
output from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and HWRF all suggest the remaining
convection will fizzle out over the next 24 hours. The latest
forecast now shows Frank becoming a post-tropical cyclone by that
time-frame. It will take another few days for the large wind
field of Frank to spin down enough for it to open up into a
trough. This is expected to occur by Friday, well offshore
southeastward of coastal California.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 22.8N 123.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 24.0N 124.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 25.5N 125.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 03/0600Z 27.4N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/1800Z 29.4N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/0600Z 31.4N 127.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1800Z 33.0N 127.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 012034
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 PM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

...FRANK FADING FAST WITH WINDS DOWN TO 50 MPH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 123.4W
ABOUT 860 MI...1380 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 123.4 West. Frank is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion with a gradual bend northward is forecast over the next
several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the
next several days, and Frank should become a post-tropical cyclone
by tomorrow night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 012034
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
2100 UTC MON AUG 01 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 123.4W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 123.4W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 123.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 24.0N 124.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.5N 125.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.4N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 29.4N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 31.4N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 33.0N 127.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 123.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 011600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 22.0N 122.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 122.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.6N 123.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 25.1N 125.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.9N 126.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.8N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.8N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 32.8N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
011600Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 122.7W.
01AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 697 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012200Z, 020400Z, 021000Z AND 021600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 011436
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Deep convection associated with Frank has continued to slowly
decrease in depth and coverage while the storm moves over cooler
waters. As a result, Dvorak T- and CI-numbers are decreasing
and the initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, which is a
blend of those estimates, and the assumption weakening has occurred
since the time of the overnight scatterometer overpasses.

Frank will be moving over SSTs of 21 to 22 Celsius during the next
day or so, and this should result in a continued steady decrease in
intensity. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF
models suggest Frank will cease to produce deep convection by 36
hours, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical
cyclone by that time. The remnant low is expected to dissipate
within 3 to 4 days.

Frank continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt around the
western periphery of a mid-level ridge. By 48 hours, when the system
weakens and becomes more vertically shallow, it should turn
generally northward with the low-level flow. The NHC track
prediction is close to the latest consensus aids, which is slightly
left of the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 22.4N 122.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 23.6N 123.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 25.1N 125.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 26.9N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/1200Z 28.8N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/0000Z 30.8N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1200Z 32.8N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 011435
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

...FRANK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 122.6W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 122.6 West. Frank is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue through Tuesday night. A slower
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued steady weakening is forecast during
the next 48 hours, and Frank should become a post-tropical cyclone
by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 011435
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.6W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.6W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 122.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.6N 123.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.1N 125.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.9N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.8N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.8N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.8N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 122.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 011000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK) WARNING NR 025
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 07E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 21.3N 121.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 121.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.9N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.5N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.2N 125.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.0N 126.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.9N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 31.8N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 35.0N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
011000Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 121.7W.
01AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 718 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011600Z, 012200Z, 020400Z AND 021000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 010844
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Frank has continued to weaken while moving over increasingly colder
waters, and deep convection is becoming more fragmented and
diminishing in depth. Unflagged data from an ASCAT-C
scatterometer pass at around 0500 UTC indicate that the maximum
winds have decreased to just below hurricane force, so the advisory
intensity is reduced to 60 kt. This is also the mean of the latest
Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Since the system will be moving over even colder ocean waters of
near 20 deg C by 48 hours, the cyclone is likely to degenerate into
a post-tropical remnant low by that time, or sooner. The official
intensity forecast follows the latest model consensus, IVCN,
prediction. Post-tropical cyclone Frank is expected to dissipate by
the end of the forecast period.

Frank remains on its northwestward course with the initial motion
continuing near 320/10 kt. There are no significant changes to the
track forecast or reasoning. The cyclone is expected to move along
the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level ridge
associated with a strong high over the southwestern United States
for the next several days. Late in the forecast period, Frank or
its remnant should move generally northward in the low-level flow.
The official track forecast is very close to the simple and
corrected dynamical model consensus tracks.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 21.7N 121.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 22.9N 122.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 24.5N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 26.2N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 28.0N 126.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 03/1800Z 29.9N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/0600Z 31.8N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0600Z 35.0N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 010841
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

...FRANK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 121.5W
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 121.5 West. Frank is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued steady weakening is forecast during
the next 48 hours, and Frank should become a post-tropical cyclone
by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 010841
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
0900 UTC MON AUG 01 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 121.5W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 121.5W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 121.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.9N 122.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 24.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 26.2N 125.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 28.0N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 29.9N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 31.8N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 35.0N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 121.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 010412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 01.08.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.7N 130.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.08.2022 0 12.7N 130.2W 1006 22
1200UTC 01.08.2022 12 13.0N 131.0W 1007 25
0000UTC 02.08.2022 24 13.2N 131.3W 1007 23
1200UTC 02.08.2022 36 13.6N 131.3W 1007 23
0000UTC 03.08.2022 48 14.8N 131.0W 1007 23
1200UTC 03.08.2022 60 16.2N 131.0W 1007 26
0000UTC 04.08.2022 72 17.2N 131.6W 1007 28
1200UTC 04.08.2022 84 17.5N 132.8W 1008 27
0000UTC 05.08.2022 96 17.3N 134.6W 1009 27
1200UTC 05.08.2022 108 16.9N 137.1W 1009 29
0000UTC 06.08.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE FRANK ANALYSED POSITION : 20.4N 120.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.08.2022 0 20.4N 120.9W 973 64
1200UTC 01.08.2022 12 21.8N 122.4W 984 50
0000UTC 02.08.2022 24 23.2N 123.9W 992 42
1200UTC 02.08.2022 36 24.8N 125.2W 999 35
0000UTC 03.08.2022 48 26.4N 126.3W 1004 27
1200UTC 03.08.2022 60 28.2N 126.9W 1007 23
0000UTC 04.08.2022 72 30.0N 127.0W 1009 24
1200UTC 04.08.2022 84 31.1N 125.8W 1012 17
0000UTC 05.08.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 11.7N 108.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.08.2022 132 12.4N 109.5W 1006 24
0000UTC 07.08.2022 144 12.5N 112.3W 1005 28


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010411

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 010411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.08.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.7N 130.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.08.2022 12.7N 130.2W WEAK
12UTC 01.08.2022 13.0N 131.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2022 13.2N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2022 13.6N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2022 14.8N 131.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2022 16.2N 131.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2022 17.2N 131.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2022 17.5N 132.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2022 17.3N 134.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2022 16.9N 137.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE FRANK ANALYSED POSITION : 20.4N 120.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.08.2022 20.4N 120.9W STRONG
12UTC 01.08.2022 21.8N 122.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.08.2022 23.2N 123.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.08.2022 24.8N 125.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.08.2022 26.4N 126.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.08.2022 28.2N 126.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2022 30.0N 127.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2022 31.1N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 11.7N 108.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.08.2022 12.4N 109.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 07.08.2022 12.5N 112.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010411

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 010400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 07E (FRANK) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 07E (FRANK) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 20.4N 120.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 120.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.0N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.6N 123.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 25.3N 124.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.9N 125.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.8N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.6N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 33.5N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
010400Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 120.9W.
01AUG22. HURRICANE 07E (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 759 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 010000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011000Z, 011600Z, 012200Z
AND 020400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 010233
TCDEP2

Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

The hurricane is continuing to weaken as it moves over colder
water, and the cloud tops temperatures associated with the cyclone
are gradually warming. The various objective and subjective
satellite intensity estimates have nudged downward, and the initial
intensity is reduced to 65 kt.

The cyclone will continue to move over colder water, reaching the
21C sea surface temperature isotherm between 36-48 h. Thus, steady
weakening should continue, with Frank becoming a post-tropical
cyclone between 48-60 h and dissipating completely before 120 h.
The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the intensity
guidance and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.

Frank is still moving northwestward or 320/10 kt, and while it
sounds like a broken record there is no change to the track
forecast reasoning. The cyclone should continue northwestward
around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge during the next
couple of days. Later in the forecast period, the steering
currents should change some as cyclone should become more
vertically shallow, and a slower northward motion is expected. The
new forecast track is again an update of the previous track and
follows the consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 20.8N 120.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 22.0N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 23.6N 123.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 25.3N 124.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 26.9N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 28.8N 126.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/0000Z 30.6N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0000Z 33.5N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 010232
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Frank Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

...FRANK SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 120.7W
ABOUT 705 MI...1140 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Frank was located
near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 120.7 West. Frank is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is forecast to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the
next few days, and Frank is forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone by late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 010232
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
0300 UTC MON AUG 01 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 120.7W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 120.7W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 120.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.0N 121.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.6N 123.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.3N 124.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.9N 125.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.8N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.6N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 33.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 120.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 312200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 07E (FRANK) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 07E (FRANK) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 19.7N 119.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 119.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.3N 121.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.9N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.5N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.2N 125.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.9N 126.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.5N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.6N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
312200Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 120.3W.
31JUL22. HURRICANE 07E (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 793 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010400Z, 011000Z, 011600Z AND 012200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GEORGETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 312041
TCDEP2

Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

The satellite presentation of Frank has gradually degraded today
with an erosion of deep convection over the western semicircle and
a general warming of cloud top temperatures elsewhere. An eye was
still evident in earlier microwave imagery, but it was open to the
south. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers have decreased, and a blend of
the latest CI-numbers yields an initial wind speed estimate of 70
kt.

Frank will be moving over progressively cooler waters and into a
more stable air mass over the next several days. As a result,
steady weakening should continue with Frank becoming a
post-tropical cyclone late Tuesday. This is consistent with the GFS
and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery which show little, if any,
remaining deep convection by that time. The official forecast calls
for the remnant low to dissipate by the end of the period which is
also supported by the dynamical model guidance.

Frank is moving northwestward or 320/10 kt. There is no change to
the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone should continue
northwestward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge
during the next couple of days. Once the cyclone becomes weaker
and more vertically shallow, a slower northward motion is
predicted. The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update
of the previous advisory, and it remains near the center of the
guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 20.1N 120.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 21.3N 121.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 22.9N 122.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 24.5N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 26.2N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 27.9N 126.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/1800Z 29.5N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/1800Z 32.6N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 312040
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Frank Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

...FRANK CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 120.1W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Frank was located
near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 120.1 West. Frank is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is forecast to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the
next few days, and Frank is forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone by late Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 312040
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
2100 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 120.1W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 120.1W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 119.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.3N 121.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.9N 122.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 24.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 26.2N 125.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.9N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 29.5N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 32.6N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 120.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 311439
TCDEP2

Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

An 0933 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass revealed the fragments of a
small inner eye and a much larger 60 to 75 n-mi-wide eye. Since that
time, the cloud tops have generally warmed with a small CDO feature
remaining. Frank's outflow is still well established owing to the
low vertical wind shear conditions. Objective and subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates range between 65 and 77 kt, so the initial
intensity has been lowered to 75 kt for this advisory.

Frank has crossed the 26 degree Celsius isotherm and will be moving
over progressively cooler waters during the next few days. In
addition, the storm will be entering a drier and more stable
environment. Thus, steady weakening is expected, and Frank is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within 72 hours, and
dissipate by the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast
follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids closely and is essentially
an update of the previous advisory.

Frank is moving northwestward or 315/10 kt. The cyclone should move
on a general northwestward track over the next couple of days around
the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge. After that time, a
weaker and more shallow system is predicted to decelerate and turn
north-northwest to northward within the low-level flow. The updated
NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the latest consensus
models and is very close to the previous official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 19.3N 119.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 20.4N 120.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 21.9N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 23.5N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 25.2N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 27.0N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/1200Z 28.7N 126.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/1200Z 31.8N 126.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 311437
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Frank Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

...FRANK BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 119.3W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Frank was located
near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 119.3 West. Frank is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is forecast to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected during the next few days as the
cyclone moves over cooler waters, and Frank is forecast to become
a post-tropical cyclone by late Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 311437
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 119.3W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 119.3W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 119.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.4N 120.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.9N 121.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.5N 123.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.2N 124.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 27.0N 125.7W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.7N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 31.8N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 119.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 310838
TCDEP2

Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

Frank appears to be maintaining its intensity for the time being,
with bands of strong convection more prevalent over the southern
portion of the circulation and a small CDO feature. The eye has
been apparent at times on enhanced infrared imagery, and
upper-level outflow remains well-defined. The advisory intensity is
held at 80 kt, which is just above the subjective Dvorak estimates
and close to the most recent SATCON value from UW-CIMSS.

The hurricane is currently over SSTs near 26.5 deg C, and will be
traversing cooler waters while moving into a progressively drier and
more stable air mass over the next few days. Thus a slow but
steady weakening trend is likely to commence today and continue for
the remainder of the forecast period. By 72 hours, Frank is
projected to be over SSTs near 20 deg C, and should have degenerated
into a remnant low. This is consistent with simulated satellite
imagery from the GFS and ECMWF global models that depict
practically no remaining deep convection by that time. The
official intensity forecast is a little above the latest IVCN and
HCCA consensus guidance.

Frank continues its northwestward trek and is still moving at
about 315/10 kt. Over the next several days, the cyclone should
maintain this general motion while moving along the southwestern
periphery of a large mid-level ridge, and toward a trough in the
vicinity of 130-135 W. Later in the forecast period, the weaker
and more shallow system should move generally northward following
the low-level flow. The official track forecast is not much
different from the previous one and is close to the latest
corrected consensus model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 18.7N 118.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 19.7N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 21.2N 121.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 22.7N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 24.4N 123.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 26.0N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 27.8N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/0600Z 31.0N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/0600Z 34.0N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 310838
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Frank Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

...FRANK LIKELY TO START WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 118.6W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Frank was located
near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 118.6 West. Frank is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is forecast to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Frank is expected to begin weakening today as it moves
over cooler waters.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 310837
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
0900 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 118.6W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 118.6W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 118.2W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 19.7N 119.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.2N 121.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.7N 122.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 24.4N 123.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 26.0N 125.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.8N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 31.0N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 34.0N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 118.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 310411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 31.07.2022

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 128.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.07.2022 0 13.3N 128.3W 1002 31
1200UTC 31.07.2022 12 13.0N 129.6W 1002 29
0000UTC 01.08.2022 24 12.9N 130.5W 1004 27
1200UTC 01.08.2022 36 13.0N 131.2W 1004 28
0000UTC 02.08.2022 48 13.1N 131.7W 1005 26
1200UTC 02.08.2022 60 13.7N 131.7W 1006 25
0000UTC 03.08.2022 72 14.7N 131.7W 1007 24
1200UTC 03.08.2022 84 16.0N 131.7W 1007 28
0000UTC 04.08.2022 96 16.6N 132.2W 1008 25
1200UTC 04.08.2022 108 17.0N 133.6W 1009 28
0000UTC 05.08.2022 120 16.8N 135.7W 1010 25
1200UTC 05.08.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE FRANK ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 117.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.07.2022 0 17.5N 117.7W 958 74
1200UTC 31.07.2022 12 18.9N 119.6W 957 80
0000UTC 01.08.2022 24 20.3N 120.9W 969 65
1200UTC 01.08.2022 36 21.9N 122.3W 980 52
0000UTC 02.08.2022 48 23.8N 123.8W 988 45
1200UTC 02.08.2022 60 25.7N 125.2W 997 35
0000UTC 03.08.2022 72 27.6N 126.3W 1003 28
1200UTC 03.08.2022 84 29.2N 126.8W 1007 23
0000UTC 04.08.2022 96 30.7N 126.5W 1009 22
1200UTC 04.08.2022 108 31.7N 125.1W 1011 18
0000UTC 05.08.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310411

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 310411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.07.2022

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 128.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.07.2022 13.3N 128.3W WEAK
12UTC 31.07.2022 13.0N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2022 12.9N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2022 13.0N 131.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2022 13.1N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2022 13.7N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2022 14.7N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2022 16.0N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2022 16.6N 132.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2022 17.0N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2022 16.8N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE FRANK ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 117.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.07.2022 17.5N 117.7W INTENSE
12UTC 31.07.2022 18.9N 119.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2022 20.3N 120.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.08.2022 21.9N 122.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.08.2022 23.8N 123.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.08.2022 25.7N 125.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.08.2022 27.6N 126.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.08.2022 29.2N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2022 30.7N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2022 31.7N 125.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310411

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 310231
TCDEP2

Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 PM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Satellite images indicate that Frank appears to have reached a
generally steady state. Although the convective banding remains well
established on the south and east sides, there are pronounced dry
slots on the system's west side. In addition, the ragged eye feature
seen occasionally earlier today is no longer evident. There is a
large spread in the satellite intensity estimates this evening with
the University of Wisconsin ADT on the low side at 63 kt and
subjective estimates as high as 90 kt. The initial intensity is held
at 80 kt based on a blend of that data.

Frank is just about out of time to strengthen as it is nearing the
26 degree C SST isotherm. The hurricane is expected to track over
increasingly cooler waters during the next few days and move into a
progressively drier and more stable environment. These factors
should cause a steady weakening trend, and Frank is now expected to
become a post-tropical cyclone by 72 hours. This forecast lies a
little above the latest IVCN and HCCA consensus models.

Frank has been moving steadily to the northwest, with the latest
initial motion estimated to be 315/10 kt. This general motion is
expected to continue as the hurricane moves toward a weakness in the
subtropical ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level low off the
California coast. When Frank becomes a shallow and weak remnant low
in a few days, it will likely slow down and turn toward the north in
the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster
and slightly to the right of the previous one, trending toward the
latest consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 18.0N 117.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 19.0N 118.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 20.4N 120.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 21.7N 121.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 23.2N 123.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 24.7N 124.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 26.3N 125.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 04/0000Z 28.8N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/0000Z 31.2N 126.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 310231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Frank Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 PM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

...FRANK EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 117.7W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Frank was located
near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 117.7 West. Frank is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion
is forecast to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Frank should start weakening on Sunday as it moves over
colder water.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 310230
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
0300 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 117.7W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 117.7W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 117.3W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 19.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.4N 120.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.7N 121.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.2N 123.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.7N 124.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.3N 125.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 28.8N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 31.2N 126.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 117.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 302037
TCDEP2

Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 PM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Frank's convective pattern is currently comprised of an inner area
of eyewall convection that is now almost surrounded by outer
convective bands. However, an eye has not appeared since the last
advisory, and the inner core convection is a bit sporadic and
asymmetric. The various satellite intensity estimates are again
unchanged since the last advisory, so the initial intensity remains
at 80 kt.

The hurricane is now moving over decreasing sea surface
temperatures and it has just about run out of time to intensify.
The center should reach the 26C isotherm in 12-18 h and reach 21C
water by 72 h. This should cause steady to rapid weakening to occur
after 12 h, with Frank forecast to decay to a remnant low by 96 h.
The new intensity forecast is adjusted downward from the previous
advisory and it follows the trend of the intensity guidance. It
should be noted that near the end of the forecast period, the GFS
model continues to show some rejuvenation of convection as the
post-tropical cyclone interacts with an upper-level trough to its
northwest.

Frank continues moving northwestward or 310/10 kt, and there is
again little change to the track forecast scenario. The cyclone
should continue on a northwestward track for most of the forecast
period while it moves along the southwestern periphery of a large
mid-level ridge toward a developing break in the ridge west of
California. The track guidance has made yet another slight shift to
the north and east at 96 and 120 h, and the latest forecast shows a
similar slight shift at those times. Otherwise, it is another
update of the previous forecast that lies close to the consensus
models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 17.2N 117.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 18.1N 118.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 19.5N 119.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 20.8N 121.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 22.1N 122.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 23.5N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 24.9N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 27.5N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/1800Z 29.0N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 302036
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Frank Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 PM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

...FRANK MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD COLDER WATER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 117.1W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Frank was located
near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 117.1 West. Frank is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is forecast to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. Frank should
start weakening on Sunday as it moves over colder water.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 302036
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
2100 UTC SAT JUL 30 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 117.1W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 117.1W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 116.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 18.1N 118.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 19.5N 119.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.8N 121.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.1N 122.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.5N 124.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 24.9N 125.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 27.5N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 29.0N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 117.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 301436
TCDEP2

Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Frank has changed little in organization since the last advisory.
The hurricane continues to produce bands of cold deep convection
near the center, but an eye is not currently apparent. Since the
various satellite intensity estimates are also basically unchanged,
the initial intensity remains set at 80 kt. The hurricane
continues to have excellent cirrus outflow in all directions
except the southwest.

Frank is running out of time to intensify, as it is now passing
over the 28C sea surface temperature isotherm and will reach waters
of 26C in about 24 h. The guidance indicates that some
strengthening is possible during the next 12 h, although the chances
of rapid intensification have diminished. Thus, the intensity
forecast now calls for a 90-kt peak intensity in 12 h, which is at
the upper edge of the guidance. After 24 h, the cyclone should
move over progressively cooler water, reaching 21C SSTs in about
96 h. This should lead to a steady weakening, and Frank is
expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h. It should be noted
that near the end of the forecast period, the GFS model shows some
rejuvenation of convection as the post-tropical cyclone interacts
with an upper-level trough to its northwest.

Frank continues moving northwestward or 310/10 kt, and there is
little change to the track forecast scenario. The cyclone should
continue on a northwestward track for most of the forecast period
while it moves along the southwestern periphery of a large
mid-level ridge toward a developing break in the ridge west of
California. The track guidance shifted a little to the north and
east at 96 and 120 h, and thus the new forecast track is also
nudged in that direction at those times. Otherwise, it is an
update of the previous forecast and lies close to the consensus
models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 16.6N 116.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 17.6N 117.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 18.9N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 20.1N 120.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 21.4N 121.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 22.7N 123.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 24.0N 124.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 26.6N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/1200Z 28.6N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 301435
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Frank Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

...FRANK PASSING SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 116.3W
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Frank was located
near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 116.3 West. Frank is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is forecast to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible through tonight. After
that, Frank is expected to weaken as it moves over cooler water.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). The Mexican automated station on Clarion Island recently
reported a wind gust of 46 mph (75 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 301434
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
1500 UTC SAT JUL 30 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 116.3W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 105SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 116.3W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 115.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.6N 117.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.9N 119.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.1N 120.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.4N 121.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.7N 123.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.0N 124.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 26.6N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 28.6N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 116.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 300851
TCDEP2

Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Frank has continued to intensify since the previous advisory, with
very cold cloud tops noted over the eastern and southern portions
of the circulation. An eye has been occasionally present in the
geostationary images. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from
SAB and TAFB are 90 kt and 77 kt respectively, and the advisory
intensity is set at 80 kt. Frank has an expansive, well-defined
upper-level outflow pattern.

Microwave images suggest that the hurricane is beginning to
establish a better-defined inner core. This indicates that rapid
intensification (RI) is possible today. The various objective
indices show a 40 to 50 percent chance of RI during the next 12-24
h. Thus Frank could become a major hurricane soon and this is
reflected in the latest NHC forecast. Frank's strengthening is
likely to be rather short-lived however, since the hurricane will
be traversing significantly cooler waters within 48 hours. By 96
hours, the cyclone should be over 21 deg C SSTs so the forecast
shows Frank degenerating into a remnant low by that time. Around
the end of the forecast period, the GFS model shows some
rejuvenation of convection as the post-tropical cyclone interacts
with an upper-level trough to its northwest.

The hurricane is moving northwestward, or 310/10 kt. The steering
scenario appears to be fairly straightforward. Frank should
continue on a northwestward track for most of the forecast period
while it moves along the southwestern periphery of a large
mid-level ridge. The official track forecast has been nudged
a little to the north of the previous one mainly because of a
slight northward shift in the short-term track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 15.9N 115.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 16.9N 116.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 18.2N 118.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 19.5N 119.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 20.9N 121.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 22.3N 122.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 23.4N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 25.5N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/0600Z 28.0N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 300848
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Frank Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

...FRANK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 115.4W
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Frank was located
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 115.4 West. Frank is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion
is forecast to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional, possibly rapid, strengthening
is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours, and Frank could become
a major hurricane by tonight. A weakening trend is expected to
begin on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 300848
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
0900 UTC SAT JUL 30 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 115.4W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 115.4W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 115.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.9N 116.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 18.2N 118.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 19.5N 119.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.9N 121.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.3N 122.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.4N 124.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 25.5N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 28.0N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 115.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 300231
TCDEP2

Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
900 PM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022

Frank is on a strengthening trend. Satellite images show that deep
convection has become more symmetric around the center, and there
have been hints of an eye forming. Although banding features have
become well established, microwave data indicate that a well-defined
inner has not yet developed. The latest satellite intensity
estimates range from 60 to 77 kt, and based on that data and the
improvement in the system's structure, the initial intensity is
increased to 70 kt. The minimum pressure has been set at 983 mb.
This makes Frank the sixth hurricane of the 2022 eastern North
Pacific season.

Over the past 12 hours, Frank has been moving west-northwestward at
9 kt. A turn to the northwest is expected on Saturday, and that
motion is forecast to continue during the next several days as the
hurricane moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The NHC
track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one,
partially due to an adjustment of the initial position in that
direction. This forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus
TVCE from 12 to 72 hours, but is left of that aid beyond that,
leaning toward the GFS and ECMWF models.

Frank is expected to remain in near ideal conditions of very low
wind shear, warm waters, and a moist airmass for another 24-36
hours. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Indices show a
greater than 60 percent chance that Frank could rapidly intensify
during that period. The NHC intensity forecast during that time has
been adjusted upward and lies a little above the consensus aids
given the favorable environment and improving storm structure.
However, by late Sunday, Frank will be moving over much cooler
waters and into a progressively drier airmass, which should cause
steady weakening. Although the system will be moving over quite cool
waters in a few days, the GFS model suggests that it could still be
producing some deep convection enhanced by a nearby trough, which
might delay its transition into a remnant low.

It again should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette
are expected to come close enough to one another for some
interaction. Frank will be the larger and dominant system during
this interaction, and the smaller and weaker Georgette will have
little impact on the track or intensity of Frank.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 15.1N 114.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 16.0N 116.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 17.1N 117.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 18.5N 119.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 19.7N 120.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 21.0N 122.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 22.2N 123.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 24.3N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 26.3N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 300231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Frank Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
900 PM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022

...FRANK IS NOW A HURRICANE...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 114.8W
ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Frank was located
near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 114.8 West. Frank is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the
northwest is expected to occur on Saturday, and that motion should
continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Frank could be near major hurricane strength this weekend.
However, weakening is expected to begin late Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 300231
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
0300 UTC SAT JUL 30 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 114.8W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 114.8W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 114.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.0N 116.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.1N 117.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.5N 119.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 19.7N 120.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.0N 122.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.2N 123.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 24.3N 126.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.3N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 114.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 292033
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
300 PM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022

Frank has become better organized during the past several hours,
with increased convective banding close to the center and signs of
a ragged eye forming. However, the convection in the formative
eyewall is still a bit sporadic, likely due to some continued dry
air entrainment. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to
the 50-77 kt range, and recent ASCAT-B scatterometer data showed
winds of at least 50 kt northeast of the center. Based on these
data, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt. The wind radii have
been modified using the ASCAT-B data.

Frank will be in an environment of light vertical shear and over
sea surface temperatures of 28-29C for the next 24-36 h, and
this combined with the increasing organization in the inner core
favors continued strengthening. The new intensity forecast calls
for a peak intensity of 90 kt in 36 h, and this lies at the top of
the intensity guidance. However, the rapid intensification indices
of the SHIPS model call for about a 65 percent chance of 25-30 kt
of strengthening in just the next 24 h, so it is possible the
current forecast is conservative. After 36 h, Frank should move
over progressively cooler SSTs, with the system reaching 21C water
by 96 h. This should cause steady to rapid weakening, and Frank is
forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.

The initial motion is now 305/10 kt. Frank is moving along the
southwest side of the subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico,
and it should move generally northwestward during the forecast
period toward a developing break in the ridge west of California.
The track guidance remains in good agreement with this scenario and
has again changed little since the previous advisory. Thus, the new
forecast track is once again an update of the previous forecast.

It again should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette
are expected to come close enough to one another for some
interaction. Frank will be the larger and dominant system during
this interaction, and the smaller and weaker Georgette will have
little impact on the track or intensity of Frank.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 14.8N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 15.6N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 16.8N 116.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 18.0N 118.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 19.3N 120.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 20.6N 121.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 21.9N 123.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 24.0N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 26.0N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 292033
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
300 PM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022

...FRANK NOW INTENSIFYING AND IT SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 113.8W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 113.8 West. Frank is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through
Saturday night, and Frank is forecast to become a hurricane in the
next several hours. Frank is expected to weaken on Sunday as it
moves over cooler water.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 292033
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
2100 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 113.8W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 113.8W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 113.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.6N 115.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.8N 116.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 18.0N 118.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 19.3N 120.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.6N 121.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 21.9N 123.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 24.0N 126.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 26.0N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 113.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 291437
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
900 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022

In infrared imagery, Frank's appearance has not changed much since
the last advisory. While the system shows a large curved
convective band that wraps a little more than three-quarters of the
way around the center, the central deep convection is a bit ragged,
possibly due to dry air entrainment from the northwest. However,
recent 37 GHz microwave data shows the cyclone has developed a
good low-level structure, with a ring of shallow to moderate
convection surrounding a 40 n mi wide developing eye. Satellite
intensity estimates have changed little since the previous
advisory, so the initial intensity remains 55 kt.

Frank will be in an environment of light vertical shear and over
sea surface temperatures of 28-29C for the next 36 h, and the
inner-core structure seen in the microwave imagery favors a faster
rate of strengthening. The one current negative factor is the dry
air entrainment that is causing the inner core deep convection to
sputter. The intensity forecast assumes strengthening will resume
as the deep convection will becomes persistent, and it follows the
trend of the intensity guidance in calling for a peak intensity of
90 kt in 36 h. After that time, Frank should move over
progressively cooler SSTs, with the system reaching 21C water by
120 h. This should cause steady to rapid weakening, and Frank is
forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.

The initial motion is now 300/10 kt. Frank is moving along the
southwest side of the subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico,
and it should move generally northwestward during the forecast
period toward a developing break in the ridge west of California.
The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario and has
changed little since the previous advisory. Thus, the new forecast
track is an update of the previous forecast.

It again should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette
are expected to come close enough to one another for some
interaction. Frank will be the larger and dominant system during
this interaction, and Georgette will have little impact on the track
or intensity of Frank.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 14.2N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 15.3N 114.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 16.5N 116.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 17.7N 117.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 18.9N 119.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 20.2N 121.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 21.5N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 24.0N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 26.0N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 291436
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
900 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022

...FRANK CHANGES LITTLE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 113.0W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 113.0 West. Frank is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected later today, and a general
northwestward motion should then continue through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected through Saturday night, and
Frank is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Frank is
expected to weaken on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 291436
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.0W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 105SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.0W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.3N 114.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.5N 116.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.7N 117.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.9N 119.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.2N 121.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.5N 122.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 24.0N 126.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 26.0N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 113.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 290839
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
300 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022

Although there has been an increase in banding over the eastern
semicircle of Frank overnight, some entrainment of dry air over the
northwestern portion of the circulation appears to have temporarily
caused a pause in the recent intensification. Frank's outflow has
become better established, and the latest shear analysis from
UW/CIMSS shows that the shear has decreased to less than 10 kt.
Recent scatterometer data was very helpful in pinpointing the
center and it revealed maximum winds of around 45 kt. The ASCAT
data also indicated that the wind field has expanded over the
eastern semicircle. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB are 55 and 65 kt, respectively. The advisory intensity
has been kept at 55 kt, in line with the TAFB classification and
allowing for some undersampling of the ASCAT satellite.

Although the vertical shear over Frank has diminished, the
lack of an inner core in recent microwave imagery and the fairly
large wind field suggest it may take a little more time before the
rate of strengthening increases. The SHIPS RI and DTOPS guidance
gives about a 50/50 shot of rapid strengthening over the next 24
hours, however the NHC foreast is slightly below that given the
above mentioned structure of the storm. The NHC forecast still
calls for Frank to become a hurricane later today, and steady
strengthening is likely through 36 hours. By 48 hours, Frank will
be moving over progressively cooler water and into a more stable
environment. This will lead to steady weakening, and Frank is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by day 5.

Frank is moving west-northwestward or 295/9 kt. The storm is
currently being steered around the southwestern periphery of a
subtropical ridge near northwestern Mexico. A weakness is forecast
to develop in the ridge over the next couple of days which will
cause Frank to turn more poleward. The spread in the dynamical
models has continued to decrease and the latest NHC forecast track
is near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.

It again should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette
are expected to come close enough to one another for some
interaction. Frank will be the larger and dominant system during
this interaction, and Georgette will have little impact on the track
or intensity of Frank.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 13.6N 112.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 14.4N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 15.5N 115.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 16.8N 117.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 18.0N 118.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 31/1800Z 19.2N 120.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 20.4N 122.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 22.8N 125.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 25.0N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 290838
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
300 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022

...FRANK'S STRENGTHENING TAKES A PAUSE...
...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 112.2W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 112.2 West. Frank is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the
next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Frank is forecast to become a
hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 290838
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
0900 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 112.2W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 112.2W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 111.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.4N 113.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.5N 115.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.8N 117.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 18.0N 118.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 19.2N 120.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.4N 122.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 22.8N 125.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 25.0N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 112.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 290238
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
900 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Frank continues to become better organized this evening. The storm
has developed a well-defined outflow in the southern and eastern
portions of the circulation. Subjective satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB both suggest Frank is a 55-kt tropical
storm. The initial intensity has been adjusted upward to match
these estimates.

The vertical wind shear over Frank appears to be diminishing.
Significant strengthening is expected since atmospheric and oceanic
conditions are predicted to be conducive for intensification, and
the most recent statistical model guidance indicates high
probabilities for rapid intensification in the next 24 hours. As a
result, the official forecast now shows a faster rate of
strengthening in the next day with a peak intensity of 95 kt by 48
hours. After that time, Frank is forecast to cross over cooler sea
surface temperatures and into a more stable atmospheric environment.
This should cause the system to weaken into a post-tropical cyclone
by the end of the period.

Frank is moving westward at 9 kt. The storm is forecast to turn to
the west-northwest shortly as it is steered around the periphery of
a subtropical ridge. Within a day, Frank should turn northwestward
as it moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The NHC
track prediction is very similar to the previous advisory forecast
and closest to the model consensus aid, TVCE.

It should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are
expected to come close enough to one another to interact. Frank
will be the larger and dominant system during this interaction, and
Georgette will have only minor impacts on the track and intensity
of Frank.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 13.2N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 13.8N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 14.9N 114.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 16.1N 116.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 17.4N 118.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 31/1200Z 18.7N 119.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 19.9N 121.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 22.2N 124.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 24.4N 127.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 290238
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
900 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FRANK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN A DAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 111.7W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 111.7 West. Frank is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest Friday night or Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Frank
is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 290238
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
0300 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 111.7W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 111.7W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 111.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.8N 113.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.9N 114.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.1N 116.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.4N 118.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.7N 119.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 19.9N 121.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 22.2N 124.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 24.4N 127.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 111.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 282035
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
300 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

The northeasterly vertical wind shear continues to diminish over
Frank, and the cyclone is responding to this by getting better
organized with increased curved convective bands. The various
satellite intensity estimates continue to range from 35-55 kt, and
they have nudged upward a little since the last advisory. Based on
this, the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt.

Frank now has about a 48-h window in which to either steadily or
rapidly intensify in conditions of light shear and sea surface
temperatures of 28-29C. The intensity guidance is stronger for
this advisory, and the intensity forecast now calls for a peak
intensity of 95 kt in 48 h. It is possible this is conservative, as
this forecast is not at the top of the guidance envelope and the
rapid intensification index of the SHIPS model is showing about a
50 percent chance of 55 kt of strengthening during the next 48 h.
After 48 h, while the shear is forecast to remain light, the cyclone
should move over steadily decreasing SSTs, reaching 21C water by
120 h. This should cause a steady to rapid weakening.

Frank continues to move westward with the initial motion 280/10 kt.
A turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 12 h or
so, followed by a northwestward motion as the cyclone heads for a
break in the subtropical ridge produced by mid- to upper-level
troughing over the northeastern Pacific. While the track guidance
is in good agreement with this scenario, the across-track spread is
a little larger than for the previous forecast, with the GFS on
the right side of the guidance and the UKMET on the left. The new
track prediction lies close to the consensus models and is a little
north of the previous forecast from 72-120 h.

It should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are
expected to come close enough to one another to interact. Frank
will be the larger and dominant system during this interaction, and
Georgette will have only minor impacts on the track and intensity
of Frank.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 13.1N 111.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 13.6N 112.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 14.5N 113.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 15.6N 115.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 16.9N 117.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 18.1N 119.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 19.4N 121.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 21.6N 124.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 24.0N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 282033
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
300 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FRANK STARTING TO INTENSIFY AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 111.1W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 111.1 West. Frank is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest Friday night or Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Frank
is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 282033
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
2100 UTC THU JUL 28 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 111.1W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 15SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 111.1W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 110.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 13.6N 112.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.5N 113.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.6N 115.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.9N 117.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 18.1N 119.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 19.4N 121.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 21.6N 124.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 24.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 111.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 281610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 28.07.2022

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 118.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.07.2022 0 15.3N 118.1W 1006 27
0000UTC 29.07.2022 12 14.6N 120.0W 1005 23
1200UTC 29.07.2022 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM FRANK ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 109.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.07.2022 0 12.8N 109.4W 1000 38
0000UTC 29.07.2022 12 13.4N 111.4W 998 38
1200UTC 29.07.2022 24 14.2N 113.3W 997 37
0000UTC 30.07.2022 36 14.7N 115.3W 994 41
1200UTC 30.07.2022 48 15.6N 117.2W 992 42
0000UTC 31.07.2022 60 16.7N 119.0W 991 44
1200UTC 31.07.2022 72 18.1N 120.9W 992 41
0000UTC 01.08.2022 84 19.4N 122.9W 992 39
1200UTC 01.08.2022 96 20.4N 124.3W 993 39
0000UTC 02.08.2022 108 21.4N 125.7W 996 37
1200UTC 02.08.2022 120 22.8N 126.8W 998 38
0000UTC 03.08.2022 132 24.1N 128.2W 1002 33
1200UTC 03.08.2022 144 24.7N 129.1W 1005 25


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281610

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 281610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.07.2022

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 118.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.07.2022 15.3N 118.1W WEAK
00UTC 29.07.2022 14.6N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM FRANK ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 109.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.07.2022 12.8N 109.4W WEAK
00UTC 29.07.2022 13.4N 111.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.07.2022 14.2N 113.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.07.2022 14.7N 115.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.07.2022 15.6N 117.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.07.2022 16.7N 119.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.07.2022 18.1N 120.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2022 19.4N 122.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2022 20.4N 124.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2022 21.4N 125.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2022 22.8N 126.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2022 24.1N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2022 24.7N 129.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281610

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 281440
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
900 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Conventional satellite imagery this morning suggests that the
northeasterly shear over Frank is diminishing, with some cirrus
outflow developing in the northeastern quadrant. However, SSM/IS
microwave overpasses at 1144 and 1234 UTC show that the storm has
not yet become better organized, as the center is still located to
the northeast of the main convective bands. Various satellite
intensity estimates range from 35-55 kt, and given the unchanged
organization the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

A further reduction in the shear appears likely later today, which
along with sea surface temperatures of 28-29C, should allow steady
to possible rapid strengthening through the 60 h point. The new
intensity forecast continues to call for a peak intensity of 90 kt,
and this is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. After
60 h, while the shear is forecast to remain light, the cyclone
should move over steadily decreasing SSTs, reaching 21C water by
120 h. This should cause a steady to rapid weakening. This part
of the intensity forecast has been adjusted downward and it lies
near the intensity consensus aids.

Frank continues to move westward with the initial motion 280/11 kt.
The track forecast reasoning is again unchanged from the previous
advisory. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the
next 12-24 h, followed by a northwestward motion as the cyclone
heads for a break in the subtropical ridge produced by mid- to
upper-level troughing over the northeastern Pacific. The track
guidance remains in good agreement, but it has again shifted just
a little to the north after about 36 h. Thus, the new track
forecast is nudged a little northward during that time.

It should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are
likely to come close enough to one another to interact. The global
models still suggest that Frank will be the larger and dominant
system during this interaction, and that Georgette will have only
minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 13.2N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 13.6N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 14.4N 112.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 15.5N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 16.7N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 17.9N 118.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 19.1N 120.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 21.5N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 23.5N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 281438
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
900 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FRANK MOVING WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A
DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 110.0W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 110.0 West. Frank is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later today or tonight, followed by a
turn toward the northwest Friday night or Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected today, with a faster rate of
strengthening forecast by tonight and Friday. Frank is forecast to
become a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 281438
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 110.0W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 110.0W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.6N 111.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.4N 112.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.5N 114.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.7N 116.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.9N 118.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 19.1N 120.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 21.5N 123.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 23.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 110.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 280838
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
300 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Frank remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the center located
near the northeastern edge of a large and persistent convective
mass. Both the ASCAT B and C instruments once again only caught
the outer portion of Frank's circulation and did not provide
assistance in determining the intensity or size of the storm's wind
field. The latest subjective Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB
remained T3.0, which supports maintaining an initial intensity
of 45 kt.

The wind shear over Frank has decreased slightly over the past 24
hours, and a more significant reduction in shear is anticipated
within the next day or so. The reduction in shear along with SSTs
of 28 to 29C should allow Frank to strengthen more quickly
beginning later today. By 36 h, the upper-level wind pattern is
forecast to become much more favorable and a period of rapid
strengthening could occur during that time. The NHC forecast
follows the higher HCCA and FSU Superensemble guidance, and is
just above the peak intensity predicted by the SHIPS model.
After 72 hours, Frank will be moving over cooler waters and into
less favorable thermodynamic conditions which is expected to result
in steady weakening.

Frank continues to move westward at about 10 kt. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory.
Frank is forecast to gradually turn west-northwestward to
northwestward over the next few days as it nears the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge. The track guidance is in better
agreement than it has been, but the overall track envelope is
slightly more northward which has result in a slight poleward
adjustment to the official forecast.

It should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are
likely to come close enough to one another to interact. The global
models still suggest that Frank will be the larger and dominant
system during this interaction, and that Georgette will have only
minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 12.9N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 13.3N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 14.0N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 14.9N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 16.0N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 17.2N 117.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 18.5N 119.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 20.7N 122.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 22.7N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 280837
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
300 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FRANK EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 108.9W
ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 108.9 West. Frank is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected tonight or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected today, with a faster rate of
strengthening forecast by tonight and Friday. Frank is forecast to
become a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 280837
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
0900 UTC THU JUL 28 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 108.9W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 108.9W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.3N 110.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.9N 113.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.2N 117.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 18.5N 119.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 20.7N 122.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 22.7N 125.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 108.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 280411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.07.2022

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 116.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.07.2022 0 15.3N 116.5W 1007 22
1200UTC 28.07.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM FRANK ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 107.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.07.2022 0 12.5N 107.6W 1001 34
1200UTC 28.07.2022 12 12.6N 109.5W 1000 37
0000UTC 29.07.2022 24 13.5N 111.1W 997 41
1200UTC 29.07.2022 36 14.2N 113.0W 996 38
0000UTC 30.07.2022 48 15.1N 114.9W 993 40
1200UTC 30.07.2022 60 16.1N 116.5W 991 42
0000UTC 31.07.2022 72 17.5N 118.3W 989 45
1200UTC 31.07.2022 84 19.0N 120.3W 990 45
0000UTC 01.08.2022 96 20.2N 122.4W 991 41
1200UTC 01.08.2022 108 21.1N 123.9W 994 37
0000UTC 02.08.2022 120 22.5N 125.0W 997 36
1200UTC 02.08.2022 132 23.8N 126.3W 1000 34
0000UTC 03.08.2022 144 24.9N 127.2W 1003 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 280411

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 280411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.07.2022

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 116.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.07.2022 15.3N 116.5W WEAK
12UTC 28.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM FRANK ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 107.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.07.2022 12.5N 107.6W WEAK
12UTC 28.07.2022 12.6N 109.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.07.2022 13.5N 111.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.07.2022 14.2N 113.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.07.2022 15.1N 114.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.07.2022 16.1N 116.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.07.2022 17.5N 118.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.07.2022 19.0N 120.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2022 20.2N 122.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2022 21.1N 123.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2022 22.5N 125.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2022 23.8N 126.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2022 24.9N 127.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 280411

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 280237
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
900 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

Deep convection persists to the southwest of the center of Frank
due to moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear. Cold cloud
top temperatures currently range between -80 to -90 degrees C and
the low-level center remains partially exposed. The initial
intensity has been nudged up to 45 kt in agreement with subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB.

Global model guidance predicts that the vertical wind shear
currently reducing the rate of strengthening should subside over the
tropical storm within the next day. The relaxation of the shear,
warm ocean surface waters, and a moist atmospheric environment
should allow Frank to strengthen more quickly, potentially at a
rapid rate, between 36-72 h. The peak intensity of the official
forecast has been increased slightly to 90 kt at 60 h to reflect
this possibility. Beyond 72 h, Frank is expected steadily weaken
when it moves over cooler waters and into a more stable atmospheric
environment.

Frank is being steered westward at 10 kt by a subtropical ridge to
the north. In a day or so, the storm should gradually turn
west-northwestward to northwestward along the periphery of the
weakening ridge through the end of the forecast period. The latest
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and
closest to the dynamical model consensus aid, TVCE.

It should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are
likely to come close enough to one another to interact. The global
models still suggest that Frank will be the larger and dominant
system during this interaction, and that Georgette will have only
minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 12.7N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 13.0N 109.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 13.5N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 14.3N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 15.2N 114.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 16.3N 116.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 17.4N 118.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 19.8N 121.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 21.9N 124.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 280236
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
900 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

...FRANK EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 108.0W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 108.0 West. Frank is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday night. A turn
toward the west-northwest is expected on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is expected overnight,
with a faster rate of strengthening forecast Thursday through
Friday. Frank could become a hurricane late Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 280236
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
0300 UTC THU JUL 28 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 108.0W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 108.0W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 107.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.0N 109.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.5N 111.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.3N 113.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.2N 114.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.3N 116.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.4N 118.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 19.8N 121.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 21.9N 124.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 108.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 272200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 12.4N 106.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 106.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 12.7N 108.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 13.1N 110.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 13.7N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 14.6N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 15.5N 115.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.6N 117.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.0N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.0N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
272200Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 107.0W.
27JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1355
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280400Z, 281000Z, 281600Z AND 282200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 272040
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
300 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

While Frank continues to feel the effects of northeasterly vertical
wind shear, the shear seem to have diminished a little and the
convection has become a little more concentrated just southwest of
the low-level center. The various subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-45 kt range and have
nudged a little upward since the last advisory. Thus, the initial
intensity is increased to 40 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS
satellite consensus estimate.

The global models suggest that the current shear should ease over
the next 12-18 h and allow Frank to gradually strengthen. Between
18-72 h, the shear is forecast to become light while the cyclone is
over 28-29C sea surface temperatures, and this environment could
allow for steady, and possibly rapid, intensification. The
intensity guidance now shows more strengthening than the runs 6 h
ago, and based on this the first 96 h of the intensity forecast
have been revised upward. It should be noted that the new forecast
peak intensity of 85 kt could be conservative, as the SHIPS, HFIP
Corrected Consensus, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models all forecast a
higher peak intensity. After 72 h, the cyclone should move over
cooler waters, and this should cause a steady weakening.

Frank is now moving westward with an initial motion of 280/9. A
subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should continue to
steer Frank generally westward for the next 24-36 h, followed by a
west-northwestward motion. After 72 h, the cyclone is expected to
moved more northwestward toward a break in the ridge caused by by a
mid- to upper-level trough developing over the Pacific west of
California. The new official forecast track is similar to the
previous track through 60 h, and then is again nudged a little to
the north of the previous forecast. The new forecast is again
close to or a little south of the various consensus models.

It should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are
likely to come close enough to one another to interact. The global
models still suggest that Frank will be the larger and dominant
system during this interaction, and that Georgette will have only
minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 12.5N 106.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 12.7N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 13.1N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 13.7N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 14.6N 113.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 15.5N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 16.6N 117.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 19.0N 120.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 21.0N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 272039
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
300 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

...FRANK STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AND MORE STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 106.8W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 106.8 West. Frank is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday night. A turn
toward the west-northwest is expected on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is expected
through tonight, with a faster rate of strengthening forecast
Thursday through Friday. Frank could become a hurricane late
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 272038
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
2100 UTC WED JUL 27 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 106.8W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 106.8W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 106.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.7N 108.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.1N 110.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 13.7N 112.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.6N 113.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.5N 115.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.6N 117.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 19.0N 120.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 21.0N 123.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 106.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 271600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 12.3N 105.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 105.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 12.7N 107.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.1N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 13.5N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 14.1N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 15.0N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.1N 116.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.5N 119.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.5N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
271600Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 106.1W.
27JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1383
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272200Z, 280400Z, 281000Z AND 281600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 271452
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

Frank continues to feel the effects of about 20 kt of northeasterly
vertical wind shear, with the low-level center remaining just
northeast of the current convective burst. Various subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-40 kt range,
and these have changed little since the last advisory. Based on
this, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

The global models suggest that the current shear should ease over
the next 12-24 h and allow Frank to gradually strengthen. Between
24-72 h, the shear is forecast to become light while the cyclone is
over 28-29C sea surface temperatures, and this environment could
allow for steady, and possible rapid, intensification. The forecast
peak intensity of 75 kt is unchanged from the previous forecast due
to uncertainty as to whether Frank will have a good enough structure
to rapidly intensify. However, this is in the middle of the
intensity guidance and could be conservative. After 72 h, Frank
should move over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and this
should cause weakening.

Frank is wobbling between a westward and west-northwestward motion
with the current motion of 285/9. A subtropical ridge to the
north of the cyclone should continue to steer Frank generally
westward for the next 36 h or so, followed by a west-northwestward
motion from 36-72 h. After that time, the cyclone is expected to
moved more northwestward toward a break in the ridge caused by by a
mid- to upper-level trough developing over the Pacific west of
California. The new official forecast rack is similar to the
previous track through 60 h, and then is nudged a little to the
north of the previous forecast in response to a northward shift of
the guidance. The new forecast is close to or a little south of
the various consensus models.

It should be noted that Frank and the newly-formed Tropical
Depression Eight-E are likely to come close enough to one another to
interact. The global models suggest that Frank will be the larger
and dominant system during this interaction, and that the depression
will have only minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 12.4N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 12.7N 107.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 13.1N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 13.5N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 14.1N 112.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 15.0N 114.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 16.1N 116.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 18.5N 119.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 20.5N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 271451
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

...FRANK SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 105.9W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 105.9 West. Frank is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
generally westward motion is expected through Thursday night, with
a turn toward the west-northwest expected on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today. Gradual strengthening
is expected to begin tonight and continue through Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 271451
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
1500 UTC WED JUL 27 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 105.9W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 105.9W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 105.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.7N 107.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.1N 109.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.5N 111.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.1N 112.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.0N 114.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.1N 116.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 18.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 20.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 105.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 271000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 11.9N 104.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 104.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 12.4N 106.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 12.7N 108.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 13.1N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 13.6N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 14.4N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 15.2N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 17.5N 119.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.6N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
271000Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 105.2W.
27JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1425
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 271600Z, 272200Z, 280400Z AND 281000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 270837
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
400 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

Frank remains a highly sheared tropical cyclone. Shortwave
infrared satellite imagery indicates that the center is exposed
well to the northeast of the primary convective mass. This is due
to around 25 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear as indicated
by the SHIPS guidance. Recent ASCAT overpasses only caught the far
western portion of the circulation and they were not helpful in
estimating Frank's initial intensity. Therefore, the initial
wind speed remains at 35 kt, which is in agreement with the latest
subjective and objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates.

The strong northeasterly shear that is plaguing Frank is not
expected to change much today. The global model guidance, however
suggests the shear will gradually abate beginning tonight with
upper-level conditions becoming more conducive for strengthening
in 24 to 36 hours. Given the current structure of the tropical
cyclone, it may take some time for the system to take advantage
of the more favorable environment. Therefore, the NHC wind speed
forecast only calls for gradual strengthening between 24 and 48
hours, with a slightly faster rate of intensification after that
time. The NHC forecast is once again on the conservative side and
lies between the SHIPS and lower LGEM model guidance.

Frank is moving westward at about 8 kt. A subtropical ridge to the
north of the cyclone should continue to steer Frank westward to
west-northwestward over the next 48 to 72 hours. After that time,
a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast as the
cyclone reaches the western periphery of the ridge. The new NHC
track forecast is once again close to the multi-model consensus aids
and the GFS ensemble mean.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 12.2N 104.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 12.4N 106.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 12.7N 108.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 13.1N 110.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 13.6N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 14.4N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 15.2N 115.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 17.5N 119.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 19.6N 122.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 270837
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
400 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

...FRANK REMAINS DISORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 104.9W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 104.9 West. Frank is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today. Gradual
strengthening is expected to begin tonight and continue through
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 270836
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
0900 UTC WED JUL 27 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 104.9W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 104.9W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 104.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 12.4N 106.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.7N 108.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.1N 110.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 13.6N 112.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.4N 114.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.2N 115.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 17.5N 119.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 19.6N 122.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 104.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 270410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 27.07.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 113.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.07.2022 0 15.2N 113.5W 1008 19
1200UTC 27.07.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM FRANK ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 103.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.07.2022 0 11.7N 103.8W 1005 28
1200UTC 27.07.2022 12 12.5N 105.8W 1005 29
0000UTC 28.07.2022 24 12.8N 108.5W 1002 28
1200UTC 28.07.2022 36 13.1N 110.3W 1001 31
0000UTC 29.07.2022 48 13.7N 112.7W 999 32
1200UTC 29.07.2022 60 14.2N 114.4W 997 40
0000UTC 30.07.2022 72 14.9N 116.4W 995 43
1200UTC 30.07.2022 84 15.7N 118.5W 993 42
0000UTC 31.07.2022 96 16.7N 120.4W 992 42
1200UTC 31.07.2022 108 17.8N 122.3W 991 47
0000UTC 01.08.2022 120 18.9N 124.2W 990 51
1200UTC 01.08.2022 132 20.1N 125.6W 990 46
0000UTC 02.08.2022 144 20.8N 127.3W 993 44


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 270410

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 270410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.07.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 113.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.07.2022 15.2N 113.5W WEAK
12UTC 27.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM FRANK ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 103.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.07.2022 11.7N 103.8W WEAK
12UTC 27.07.2022 12.5N 105.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.07.2022 12.8N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.07.2022 13.1N 110.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.07.2022 13.7N 112.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.07.2022 14.2N 114.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.07.2022 14.9N 116.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.07.2022 15.7N 118.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.07.2022 16.7N 120.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.07.2022 17.8N 122.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2022 18.9N 124.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2022 20.1N 125.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2022 20.8N 127.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 270410

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 270239
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Frank continues to form deep convective bursts near and west of the
estimated center, with cloud tops colder than -80 degrees C.
However, satellite imagery indicates this convection is not
well-organized and the system currently lacks well-defined banding
features. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates
remain at 35 kt so the there is no change to the advisory
intensity.

Northeasterly shear is inhibiting increased organization and
strengthening of the tropical storm. The shear is associated with a
strong upper-level anticyclone near northwestern Mexico. Global
model guidance predicts that this anticyclone will weaken during the
next couple of days which should result in a relaxation of the
shear. The SHIPS guidance shows the shear decreasing significantly
in 24-36 hours. It also indicates that the other oceanic and
environmental conditions will be conducive for Frank to possibly
strengthen into a hurricane within three days. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous prediction and
slightly below the model consensus.

The system is moving westward at 9 kt. Frank should gradually turn
to the west-northwest over the next several days as it moves along
the periphery of a mid-level ridge to the north. A more
northwestward motion is likely in 4-5 days as the cyclone nears the
western edge of the ridge. A potential complication to the track
forecast is the possible influence of a disturbance about 600 n mi
to the west-northwest of Frank. The NHC track prediction is close
to the latest model consensus aid, HCCA, and similar to the previous
advisory forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 11.7N 104.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 12.1N 105.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 12.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 12.9N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 13.3N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 13.9N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 14.5N 115.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 16.5N 118.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 18.9N 121.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 270238
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

...FRANK REMAINS DISORGANIZED FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 104.2W
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 104.2 West. Frank is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 270237
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
0300 UTC WED JUL 27 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 104.2W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 104.2W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 103.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.1N 105.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.9N 109.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.3N 111.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.9N 113.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.5N 115.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 16.5N 118.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 18.9N 121.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 104.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 262043
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
400 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Convection near the center of Frank is struggling to organize, as
several bursts since the prior advisory have been stripped away
southwest of the center due to continued moderate northeasterly
vertical wind shear. Cirrus from a more recent convective burst is
currently covering the center. Today's scatterometer swaths just
clipped the far eastern edge of Frank's circulation, and while there
were some greater than 34-kt wind retrievals in ASCAT-B at around
1700 UTC, these values may have been rain contaminated, especially
compared to the much lower ASCAT-C values less than an hour prior.
Dvorak intensity estimates this afternoon were a consensus
T2.5/35-kt from TAFB, SAB, and ADT. The intensity will remain at 35
kt for this advisory.

The shear over Frank is not expected to abate for the next 36-48
hours, and in fact may increase a bit more as suggested by the
ECMWF-SHIPS guidance. Both the ECMWF and GFS simulated IR brightness
temperature also show convection continuing to be focused down-shear
of the low-level circulation during this time frame, limiting
intensification. One additional complicating factor is that another
system located west of Frank could also interact with the tropical
storm, though Frank should remain the dominant cyclone. Even after
the shear abates in around 3 days, it is unclear what type of storm
structure Frank will have at that time, and if it can take full
advantage of the more favorable environmental conditions. For these
reasons, the intensity forecast remains on the conservative side,
showing a pause in strengthening between 12-36 hours, and then
gradual intensification beginning afterwards. The latest intensity
forecast remains on the low end of the intensity guidance, and
remains closest to the LGEM model.

Frank continues to move just north of due west at 280/10 kt. This
general motion and heading should not change too much over the next
2-3 days as the storm remains steered by a large mid-level
subtropical ridge to its north. A weakness in the ridge thereafter,
as well as some possible interaction with the system west of Frank,
may allow the storm to gain more latitude thereafter. The track
guidance this cycle has shifted a bit north, and the latest track
forecast follows suit, located roughly between the HCCA and GFEX
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 11.8N 103.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 12.1N 104.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 12.5N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 12.9N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 13.4N 110.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 13.8N 112.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 14.3N 114.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 15.9N 117.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 18.4N 120.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 262044
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
400 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

...FRANK STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 103.5W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 103.5 West. Frank is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slight strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 262037
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
2100 UTC TUE JUL 26 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 103.5W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 103.5W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 103.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.1N 104.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 12.5N 106.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.9N 108.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.4N 110.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 13.8N 112.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.3N 114.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 15.9N 117.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 18.4N 120.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 103.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 261451
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Satellite imagery this morning depicts a sheared bursting pattern
associated with the tropical cyclone. An overnight convective burst
obscured the low-level circulation center, but first-light visible
imagery now shows the vortex mostly exposed east of the colder
convective cloud tops. This structure can also be seen from the last
couple SSMIS microwave passes near the center and is characteristic
of environmental vertical wind shear (VWS) diagnosed between 15-20
knots from the northeast. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB were T2.5/35-kt and T2.0/30-kt respectively, while the
latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was at T2.5/35-kt. The initial
intensity has been raised to 35-kt this advisory, upgrading the
tropical depression to tropical storm Frank.

Northeasterly VWS between 15-20 kt is expected to continue over the
next 48 hours, and will likely limit significant intensification in
the short-term as the shear promotes misalignment between the
low-level and mid-level centers. The latest intensity forecast only
shows slow intensification in the short-term. Afterwards, this shear
is expected to decrease, while the storm will remain over warm
sea-surface temperatures near 29C through 96 hours. However, the
current shear may also help broaden Frank's wind field as convection
is favored outside of the radius of maximum wind, as suggested by
the latest ECMWF run. These structural changes could limit more
robust intensification later in the forecast despite the more
favorable environment. For now, the latest NHC forecast still peaks
Frank as a category 1 hurricane towards end of the forecast period.
This forecast is on the lower end of the intensity guidance
envelope, close to the LGEM model, and is somewhat lower than the
consensus aids HCCA and IVCN.

The tropical storm is moving generally westward at 280/9-kt. The
track guidance is in fairly good agreement that this motion and
heading will continue as a mid-level ridge extends westward to the
north of Frank over the next 2-3 days. Towards the end of the
forecast, the ridge overhead will begin to gradually weaken, and
will likely allow a larger Frank to begin gaining more latitude. One
complicating factor in the track forecast is the possibility of some
weak binary interaction with another low-level circulation located
to Frank's northwest, where the net interaction may help impart a
bit more northerly heading to Frank's track between 72-96 hours. For
now, the track forecast continues to favor a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF forecast (GFEX) and is quite close to the previous forecast
track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 11.6N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 11.9N 104.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 12.1N 105.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 12.2N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 12.6N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 12.9N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 13.6N 113.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 15.0N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 17.5N 119.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 261446
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRANK...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 102.4W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 102.4 West. Frank is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 261445
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
1500 UTC TUE JUL 26 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 102.4W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 102.4W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 102.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 11.9N 104.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.1N 105.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.2N 107.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.6N 109.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.9N 111.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.6N 113.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 15.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 17.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 102.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 260856 CCA
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Conventional satellite imagery shows that deep convection associated
with the low pressure area south of southern Mexico has continued
to increase and become better organized. An earlier SSMIS
microwave overpass revealed an improved low-level structure,
although most of the deep convection was located over the western
portion of the system due to moderate easterly shear. A couple of
scatterometer overpasses between 0330 and 0500 UTC showed that the
circulation had become much better defined and the system had peak
winds around 30 kt. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB
have also increased to T2.0, and based on all the above data,
advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Seven-E. The
initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, in agreement with both the
ASCAT data and the subjective Dvorak estimates.

Moderate easterly shear is forecast to plague the system over the
next 24 to 48 hours, however most of the intensity guidance
suggests gradual strengthening will occur during that time. The
official forecast follows suit and calls for the depression to
become a tropical storm later today or tonight. After 48 hours, the
shear is expected to abate while the system is over SSTs of 28-29C
and within a moist low- to mid-level environment. Those conditions
favor a faster rate of strengthening, and this is reflected in the
NHC forecast which shows the system becoming a hurricane in about 72
hours. The intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA
and IVCN consensus aids and is also supported by the global model
guidance which depicts more significant deepening in 2-3 days.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 280/10 kt. The
cyclone is expected to continue westward for the next few days while
it is steered by a subtropical ridge that extends westward from
northern Mexico. After that time, the GFS and ECMWF models develop
a slight weakness in the ridge off the coast of Baja California
which allows the system to turn west-northwestward. The UKMET
depicts a stronger ridge and a more westward track than the
remainder of the guidance and its ensemble mean. As a result, the
official forecast is closer to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models,
and a bit north and east of the TVCE multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 11.4N 101.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 11.8N 103.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 12.1N 105.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 12.2N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 12.5N 109.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 12.8N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 13.3N 112.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 14.9N 116.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 17.5N 119.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 260838
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Conventional satellite imagery shows that deep convection associated
with the low pressure area south of southern Mexico has continued
to increase and become better organized. An earlier SSMIS
microwave overpass revealed an improved low-level structure,
although most of the deep convection was located over the western
portion of the system due to moderate easterly shear. A couple of
scatterometer overpasses between 0330 and 0500 UTC showed that the
circulation had become much better defined and the system had peak
winds around 30 kt. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB
have also increased to T2.0, and based on all the above data,
advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Seven-E. The
initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, in agreement with both the
ASCAT data and the subjective Dvorak estimates.

Moderate easterly shear is forecast to plague the system over the
next 24 to 48 hours, however most of the intensity guidance
suggests gradual strengthening will occur during that time. The
official forecast follows suit and calls for the depression to
become a tropical depression later today or tonight. After 48
hours, the shear is expected to abate while the system is over SSTs
of 28-29C and within a moist low- to mid-level environment. Those
conditions favor a faster rate of strengthening, and this is
reflected in the NHC forecast which shows the system becoming a
hurricane in about 72 hours. The intensity forecast is in
good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids and is also
supported by the global model guidance which depicts more
significant deepening in 2-3 days.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 280/10 kt. The
cyclone is expected to continue westward for the next few days while
it is steered by a subtropical ridge that extends westward from
northern Mexico. After that time, the GFS and ECMWF models develop
a slight weakness in the ridge off the coast of Baja California
which allows the system to turn west-northwestward. The UKMET
depicts a stronger ridge and a more westward track than the
remainder of the guidance and its ensemble mean. As a result, the
official forecast is closer to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models,
and a bit north and east of the TVCE multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 11.4N 101.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 11.8N 103.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 12.1N 105.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 12.2N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 12.5N 109.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 12.8N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 13.3N 112.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 14.9N 116.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 17.5N 119.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 260838
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 101.8W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven-E
was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 101.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm today or
tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 260836
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022
0900 UTC TUE JUL 26 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 101.8W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 101.8W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 101.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 11.8N 103.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.1N 105.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 12.2N 107.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.5N 109.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.8N 110.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 13.3N 112.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 14.9N 116.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 17.5N 119.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 101.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>