Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DARBY-22
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 170232
TCDCP1

Remnants of Darby Discussion Number 31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
500 PM HST Sat Jul 16 2022

Scatterometer data from ASCAT-B at 2034 UTC showed 35-40 kt winds,
and ASCAT-C at 1946 UTC showed several 35 kt barbs in the northern
quadrant. However, the wind field from both datasets did not show a
well-defined circulation center. This was also evident in the
earlier CFOSAT scatterometer pass from 1722 UTC. With the lack of a
low level circulation center, Darby has opened up into a trough and
is no longer considered to be a tropical cyclone.

As a result, this is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center on Darby. Additional information on this system can
be found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service in Honolulu under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and WMO header
FZPN40 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 17.7N 157.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kodama

>

Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 170231
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Remnants of Darby Advisory Number 31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
500 PM HST Sat Jul 16 2022

...DARBY NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 157.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Darby were
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 157.5 West. The
remnants are moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for another day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast over the next 24 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Darby are expected to affect
portions of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. These swells are
likely to produce hazardous surf and dangerous rip currents. Please
consult products from your local National Weather Service office in
Honolulu, Hawaii for further details.

RAINFALL: Darby is expected to produce localized storm total
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches along portions of windward Big Island.
These rains may cause minor flooding especially in low-lying and
poor drainage areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center on Darby. Additional information on the
remnants of Darby can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS head HFOHSFNP, WMO header
FZPN40 PHFO, and on the web at https://www.weather.gov/hfo/HSFNP

$$
Forecaster Kodama


>

Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 170230
TCMCP1

REMNANTS OF DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052022
0300 UTC SUN JUL 17 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 157.5W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 157.5W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 156.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 157.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOHSFNP...AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 162200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 17.7N 154.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 154.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.7N 158.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
162200Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 155.9W.
16JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (ESTELLE) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 162035
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 16 2022

Deep convection redeveloped in the northern semicircle near the
center last night. High clouds from this convection briefly obscured
the center but it has become exposed once again. The convection
appears to be poorly organized and is not persistent near the center
over time. This pulsing of convection is typical behavior of a
central Pacific tropical cyclone as it goes through its weakening
process toward dissipation. The center of Darby is visible in the
South Point radar data and indicates the center passing south of the
Big Island at this time. The current satellite intensity estimate
from PHFO came in at 2.0/30 kt. This was the only subjective
estimate available. The CIMSS ADT was 2.0/30 kt, and the latest
available SATCON from 1208 UTC was 37 kt. The initial intensity for
this advisory is 35 kt, though this may be generous.

Darby is a shallow system and is being steered by the low- to
mid-level easterly flow. This steering current will remain in place
until the system dissipates. The forecast track is just an update
to the previous track.

Although SSTs are expected to slowly increase along the remaining
forecast track, vertical shear is forecast to increase above 30 kt
tonight in both the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS guidance. Thus,
reintensification is not expected. Thus, the forecast keeps the
weakening trajectory of the previous forecast, which makes Darby a
post-tropical system tonight and dissipates it by Sunday. If
additional data are received that indicate the circulation has
opened up to a trough, or if deep convection does not persist near
the center, the system could be dropped as a tropical cyclone
sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 17.7N 155.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 17.7N 158.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kodama

>

Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 162033
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Darby Advisory Number 30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 16 2022

...DARBY WEAKENING AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 155.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 155.5 West. Darby is
moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue until the cyclone dissipates on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Darby is forecasted to become a tropical depression later today and
become a post-tropical remnant low tonight, and dissipates on
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Darby are expected to affect
portions of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. These swells are
likely to produce hazardous surf and dangerous rip currents. Please
consult products from your local National Weather Service office in
Honolulu, Hawaii for further details.

RAINFALL: Darby is expected to produce localized storm total
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches along portions of windward Big Island.
These rains may cause minor flooding especially in low-lying and
poor drainage areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kodama


>

Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 162032
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052022
2100 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 155.5W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 155.5W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 154.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.7N 158.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 155.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 161609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 16.07.2022

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 103.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.07.2022 0 13.6N 103.3W 1003 29
0000UTC 17.07.2022 12 14.5N 105.0W 1000 33
1200UTC 17.07.2022 24 15.5N 107.1W 998 41
0000UTC 18.07.2022 36 16.1N 109.9W 996 37
1200UTC 18.07.2022 48 16.8N 112.1W 996 42
0000UTC 19.07.2022 60 17.2N 115.1W 997 41
1200UTC 19.07.2022 72 17.5N 117.9W 997 43
0000UTC 20.07.2022 84 18.0N 120.5W 996 48
1200UTC 20.07.2022 96 18.9N 122.8W 995 45
0000UTC 21.07.2022 108 20.1N 125.2W 997 44
1200UTC 21.07.2022 120 21.2N 127.1W 1002 35
0000UTC 22.07.2022 132 21.9N 129.4W 1006 29
1200UTC 22.07.2022 144 22.1N 131.4W 1009 24

TROPICAL STORM DARBY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 152.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.07.2022 0 17.6N 152.3W 1011 33
0000UTC 17.07.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 161609

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 161609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.07.2022

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 103.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.07.2022 13.6N 103.3W WEAK
00UTC 17.07.2022 14.5N 105.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.07.2022 15.5N 107.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.07.2022 16.1N 109.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.07.2022 16.8N 112.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.07.2022 17.2N 115.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.07.2022 17.5N 117.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.07.2022 18.0N 120.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2022 18.9N 122.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2022 20.1N 125.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2022 21.2N 127.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.07.2022 21.9N 129.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.07.2022 22.1N 131.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM DARBY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 152.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.07.2022 17.6N 152.3W WEAK
00UTC 17.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 161609

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 161600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 17.5N 152.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 152.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.3N 156.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.2N 160.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
161600Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 153.7W.
16JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 207 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162200Z, 170400Z AND 171000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (ESTELLE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 161437
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
500 AM HST Sat Jul 16 2022

Deep convection associated with Darby remains limited, with only
a recent burst of convection north of the low-level circulation
center over the past few hours. CIMSS SATCON intensity estimates
remain around 40 kt. The current satellite intensity estimate
from PHFO is 35 kt. Based on these data, and convective trends, the
initial intensity remains at 40 kt.

The initial motion is now 270/19 kt. Low- to mid-level easterly
flow associated with high pressure to the north supports the
westerly track persisting until the system dissipates. The new
forecast track is in the center of the tightly-clustered track
guidance, with only a slight increase in forward speed compared to
the previous forecast.

Darby will continue to weaken as it moves over 25-26C sea surface
temperatures and ingests drier air. This combined with moderate
shear will translate to the system becoming a post-tropical cyclone
by 24 hours, and the global models are in good agreement that the
system will dissipate to a surface trough by 36 hours. The new
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 17.5N 153.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 17.3N 156.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 17.2N 160.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs

>

Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 161435
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Darby Advisory Number 29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
500 AM HST Sat Jul 16 2022

...DARBY REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 153.3W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 153.3 West. Darby is
moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next couple of days. The forecast
track will bring the center of Darby south of the Big Island
later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple days, with Darby
expected to weaken into a post-tropical remnant low tonight before
dissipating on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Darby are expected to affect
portions of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. These swells are
likely to produce hazardous surf and dangerous rip currents. Please
consult products from your local National Weather Service office in
Honolulu, Hawaii for further details.

RAINFALL: Darby is expected to produce localized storm total
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches along portions of windward Big Island.
These rains may cause minor flooding especially in low-lying and
poor drainage areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs


>

Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 161435
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052022
1500 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 153.3W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 25SE 15SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 10SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 153.3W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 152.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 156.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 15SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.2N 160.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 153.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/GIBBS



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 161000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 17.5N 150.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 150.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.4N 154.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.2N 158.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
161000Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 151.6W.
16JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161600Z, 162200Z AND 170400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (ESTELLE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PNHC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 160844
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
1100 PM HST Fri Jul 15 2022

Deep convection associated with Darby remains limited, with only
a few small deep convective bursts occurring over the past 12
hours. CIMSS SATCON intensity estimates ranged from 37 to 44 kt.
The various satellite intensity estimates ranged from 30-40 kt
from PHFO and SAB. Based on these data, and convective trends,
the initial intensity remains at 40 kt.

The initial motion is now 265/18 kt. Darby will continue to move
westward in the low-level trade wind flow until the system
dissipates. The new forecast track is in the center of the
tightly-clustered track guidance, with very little change from the
previous track.

Darby will continue to weaken as it moves over 25-26C sea surface
temperatures and ingests drier air. This combined with moderate
shear will translate to the system becoming a post-tropical cyclone
by 24 hours, and the global models are in good agreement that the
system will dissipate to a surface trough by 36 hours. The new
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 17.4N 151.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 17.4N 154.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 17.2N 158.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs

>

Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 160843
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Darby Advisory Number 28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
1100 PM HST Fri Jul 15 2022

...DARBY REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 151.2W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 151.2 West. Darby is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next couple of days. The forecast
track will bring the center of Darby south of the Big Island on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple days, with Darby
expected to weaken into a post-tropical remnant low late Saturday or
Saturday night before dissipating on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Darby are expected to affect
portions of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. These swells are
likely to produce hazardous surf and dangerous rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local National
Weather Service office in Honolulu, Hawaii for further details.

RAINFALL: Darby is expected to produce localized storm total
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches along portions of mainly windward Big
Island and windward Maui. These rains may cause minor flooding
especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs


>

Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 160842
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052022
0900 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 151.2W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 20SE 10SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 40SE 25SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 151.2W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 150.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.4N 154.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 15SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.2N 158.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 151.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/GIBBS



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 160400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 17.7N 148.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 148.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.6N 152.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.4N 156.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.3N 160.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
160400Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 149.7W.
16JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 394 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 161000Z, 161600Z, 162200Z AND 170400Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 06E (ESTELLE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 160234
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
500 PM HST Fri Jul 15 2022

The UW-CIMSS shear analysis near Darby shows that the westerly
shear over the system has actually relaxed just a bit, now only
around 20 kt. This may have been enough for a brief burst of deep
convection in the northwest quadrant this afternoon. That convection
has since dissipated, however, and the last persistent deep
convection was about 1400Z. An earlier 1914Z ASCAT-B pass showed
three wind barbs of 40-41 kt on the north side of the center.
Various Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from 45 kt at PHFO to 33
KT from the UW-CIMSS ADT. CIMSS SATCON from 0050Z had a CI of 37 kt.
Based on a blend of these estimates, have gone with an initial
intensity of 40 kt.

The initial motion is 275/14. A large anticyclone far north of
Darby in both the mid- and low-levels will maintain a westerly track
over the next few days. The current forecast track remains close to
the past track, near the center of the guidance.

The forecast track keeps Darby in a moderately sheared environment
for the next couple of days, and over sea surface temperatures
(SST) of 25-26C. The shear, SST and climatologically meager
mid-level relative humidity values near the track all work against
persistent deep convection redeveloping with Darby, although the
simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF both show brief
bursts from time to time. A strong high far to the north will
maintain a pocket of relatively strong trade winds in the gradient
flow as the system dissipates from remnant low to a surface trough.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 17.7N 149.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 17.6N 152.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 17.4N 156.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1200Z 17.3N 160.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster M Ballard/R Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 160233
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Darby Advisory Number 27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
500 PM HST Fri Jul 15 2022

...WEAKENING DARBY EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII CONTINUES TO MOVE
TO THE WEST...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ELEVATED SURF TO
THE BIG ISLAND THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 149.4W
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 149.4 West. Darby is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the remnant center of Darby will pass south of the Big
Island Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Darby is expected to weaken to a remnant low Saturday, before
dissipating Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Darby are expected to affect
portions of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. These swells are
likely to produce hazardous surf and dangerous rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local National
Weather Service office in Honolulu, Hawaii for further details.

RAINFALL: Darby is expected to produce localized storm total
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches along portions of mainly windward Big
Island and windward Maui. These rains may cause nuisance flooding
especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster M Ballard/R Ballard


>

Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 160232
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052022
0300 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 149.4W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 95NE 55SE 65SW 95NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 149.4W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 148.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.6N 152.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.4N 156.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.3N 160.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 149.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER M BALLARD/R BALLARD



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 152200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 146.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 146.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.6N 150.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.5N 153.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.2N 157.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.9N 161.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
152200Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 147.9W.
15JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160400Z, 161000Z, 161600Z AND 162200Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (SIX) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 152036
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
1100 AM HST Fri Jul 15 2022

Darby lost its deep convection around 1400Z, as a result of
persistent shear of 25 to 30 kt, per the UW-CIMSS deep shear
analysis. The loss of deep convection has left behind an exposed
low level center. Dvorak intensities from PHFO and PGTW were 55 kt,
SAB at 45 kt and UW-CIMSS ADT at 35 kt. The CIMSS SATCON from
1638Z had a CI of 49 kt. With the convection gone, and a high
confidence in the downward trend, have opted to go with a
conservative blend of these intensities for an initial value of 50
kt.

The initial motion is 275/13. With the convection sheared off, but
cloud tops still reaching near 20K feet, the mid levels are helping
to guide Darby. Over the next day or so, the low-level flow will
become the steering force for the system. Both the mid- and
low-levels are dominated by a large anticyclone far to the north
of the cyclone, which will maintain a westerly track. The track
guidance has become a little less tightly clustered as it has
been over the last several runs, with some variations in how the
models are handling the rate of weakening. The current forecast
track remains close to the past track, near the center of the
guidance envelope.

The forecast track keeps Darby in a moderately sheared environment
for the next couple of days, and continuing along the 25-26C sea
surface temperatures (SST). The shear, SST and climatologically low
mid-level relative humidity values near the track all work against
redevelopment of Darby. The intensity forecast has been lowered some
from the past forecast, to be in line with the latest guidance
consensus, which leads to dissipation of the remnant circulation by
Sunday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 17.6N 147.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 17.6N 150.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 17.5N 153.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 17.2N 157.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 16.9N 161.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster M Ballard/R Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 152032
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Darby Advisory Number 26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
1100 AM HST Fri Jul 15 2022

...WEST-MOVING DARBY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 147.7W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 147.7 West. Darby is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next couple of days. The forecast
track brings the center of Darby, or its remnant, south of the
Big Island on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Darby is expected to continue to weaken, to a tropical depression
Friday night, then become a post-tropical cyclone Saturday before
dissipating by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Darby are expected to affect
portions of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. These swells are
likely to produce hazardous surf and dangerous rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local National
Weather Service office in Honolulu, Hawaii for further details.

RAINFALL: Darby is expected to produce localized storm total
rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches along portions of mainly windward
Big Island and windward Maui. These rains may cause nuisance
flooding especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster M Ballard/R Ballard


>

Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 152032
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052022
2100 UTC FRI JUL 15 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 147.7W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 5SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 147.7W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 146.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.6N 150.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.5N 153.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 10SE 5SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.2N 157.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.9N 161.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 147.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER M BALLARD/R BALLARD



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 151600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 025
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 05E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 17.5N 145.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 145.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.5N 148.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.5N 152.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.3N 155.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.9N 159.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
151600Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 146.4W.
15JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 567 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z AND 161600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (SIX) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 151436
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 25
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
500 AM HST Fri Jul 15 2022

Darby's satellite presentation has degraded further overnight and
continues to be influenced by moderate west-southwesterly vertical
wind shear of around 20 knots as indicated by UW-CIMSS vertical
wind shear analysis, along with cool sea surface temperatures
(SSTs) of around 25C shown in the NASA SPoRT SST composite. The
latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from
PHFO/SAB/JTWC all came in at 4.0 (65 knots) while the UW-CIMSS
objective ADT current intensity estimate was 3.1 (47 knots).
Additionally, a SATCON estimate at 14/1046Z estimated the cyclones
strength at 54 knots. Given the satellite degradation and
incorporating a blend of the above intensity estimates, Darby's
initial intensity has been lowered to 60 knots with this advisory,
making the cyclone a tropical storm. Darby continues on its westward
course, with the estimated initial motion set at 275/14 knots.

Darby will remain in a hostile environment during the next couple
days, characterized by cool SSTs of 25-26C, moderate to strong
westerly vertical wind shear of 20 to 30 knots, and surrounded by
dry mid-level air with relative humidity values of less than 50
percent. As a result, Darby is expected to continue to weaken
quickly today, with a more steady decline thereafter through
dissipation. The tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a
remnant low late Saturday or Saturday night, before dissipating on
Sunday. The intensity forecast has been adjusted downward with
this advisory package, and follows a blend of the dynamical and
statistical intensity guidance.

The tropical cyclone will continue to be directed westward during
the next couple days, influenced initially by a gradually building
mid and upper level ridge to the north of the system, while deep
convection persists. The cyclone will then begin to move slightly
south of due west at a faster forward speed as deep convection
becomes more sporadic, allowing Darby to be pushed along by the low
level trade wind flow. The forecast track closely follows a blend
of the latest GFS and ECMWF guidance (GFEX) through dissipation,
and is essentially the same as the previous official forecast track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 17.5N 146.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 17.5N 148.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 17.5N 152.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 17.3N 155.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 16.9N 159.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs

>

Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 151435
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Darby Advisory Number 25
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
500 AM HST Fri Jul 15 2022

...DARBY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WELL EAST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 146.1W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 146.1 West. Darby is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue during the next couple days with a slight
increase in forward speed. The forecast track will bring the center
of Darby, or its remnant low, south of the Big Island on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple days, with
Darby expected to weaken into a post-tropical remnant low late
Saturday or Saturday night before dissipating on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Darby are expected to affect
portions of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. These swells are
likely to produce hazardous surf and dangerous rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local National
Weather Service office in Honolulu, Hawaii for further details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs


>

Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 151435
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052022
1500 UTC FRI JUL 15 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 146.1W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 5SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 146.1W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 145.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.5N 148.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.5N 152.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 10SE 5SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 155.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.9N 159.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 146.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/GIBBS



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 151000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 17.4N 144.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 144.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.6N 147.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.6N 150.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.5N 154.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.2N 157.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
151000Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 145.1W.
15JUL22. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 641 NM EAST
OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 38 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 151600Z, 152200Z, 160400Z AND 161000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 150849
TCDCP1

Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
1100 PM HST Thu Jul 14 2022

Darby's satellite presentation has deteriorated this evening as it
continues to be influenced by moderate west-southwesterly vertical
wind shear of around 20 knots as indicated by UW-CIMSS vertical
wind shear analysis, and cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of
around 25C shown in the NASA SPoRT SST composite. The latest
subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from PHFO/SAB/JTWC
ranged from 4.0 (65 knots) to 4.5 (77 knots) while the UW-CIMSS
objective ADT current intensity estimate was 3.8 (61 knots).
Additionally, a SATCON estimate at 14/0404Z estimated the cyclones
strength at 64 knots. Given the satellite degradation and
incorporating a blend of the above intensity estimates, Darby's
initial intensity has been lowered to 65 knots with this advisory.
Darby continues on its westward course, with the estimated initial
motion set at 280/14 knots.

Darby will remain in a hostile environment during the next couple
days, characterized by cool SSTs of 25-26C, moderate to strong
westerly vertical wind shear of 20 to 30 knots, and surrounded by
dry mid-level air with relative humidity values of less than 50
percent. As a result, we expect Darby to continue to steadily
weaken during the next couple days. The tropical cyclone is expected
to weaken into a tropical storm later tonight, then weaken further
into a remnant low late Saturday, before dissipating Saturday
night. The intensity forecast has been lowered based on the rapid
rate of weakening the system is experiencing, and follows a blend of
the dynamical and statistical intensity guidance.

The tropical cyclone will continue to be directed westward during
the next couple days, influenced initially by a gradually building
mid and upper level ridge to the north of the system, while deep
convection persists. The cyclone will then begin to move slightly
south of due west at a faster forward speed as deep convection
becomes more sporadic, allowing Darby to be pushed along by the low
level trade wind flow. The forecast track closely follows a blend
of the latest GFS and ECMWF guidance (GFEX) through dissipation,
and is nearly a carbon copy of the previous official forecast track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 17.5N 144.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 17.6N 147.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 17.6N 150.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 17.5N 154.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 17.2N 157.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 150845
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
1100 PM HST Thu Jul 14 2022

...HURRICANE DARBY WEAKENS FURTHER AND BARELY HOLDING ON TO
HURRICANE STATUS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 144.8W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 144.8 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue during the next couple days with a slight increase in
forward speed. The forecast track will bring the center of Darby,
or its remnant low, south of the Big Island late Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next couple days,
with Darby expected to weaken into a tropical storm later tonight,
and to a post-tropical remnant low on Saturday before dissipating.

Darby is a small tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Darby are expected to affect
portions of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. These swells are
likely to produce hazardous surf and dangerous rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local National
Weather Service office in Honolulu, Hawaii for further details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema


>

Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 150844
TCMCP1

HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052022
0900 UTC FRI JUL 15 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 144.8W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 35SE 25SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..110NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 144.8W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 144.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.6N 147.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.6N 150.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 15SE 10SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.5N 154.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.2N 157.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 144.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 150400 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 023A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 023A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 17.4N 142.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 142.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.7N 145.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.7N 148.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.6N 151.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.4N 155.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.2N 158.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
150400Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 143.6W.
15JUL22. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 719 NM EAST
OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED TRACK SPEED TO 14 KNOTS IN
1. AND REMARKS.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 150400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 023A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 023A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 17.4N 142.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 142.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.7N 145.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.7N 148.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.6N 151.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.4N 155.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.2N 158.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
150400Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 143.6W.
15JUL22. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 719 NM EAST
OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 150242
TCDCP1

Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 23
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
500 PM HST Thu Jul 14 2022

Darby is becoming less organized on satellite with pulses of
increasingly ragged deep convection starting to become sheared from
the low level center. The UW-CIMSS deep layer shear analysis
suggests the core of Darby is now experiencing shear of 20 to 25
knots. Dvorak estimates from PHFO, SAB, PGTW all agree with the
latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of 77 kt, thus giving good confidence
with an initial intensity of 80 kt with this advisory.

The initial motion is 290/13. Little has changed with the synoptic
situation, with Darby continuing along the southwest periphery of a
mid-level ridge. Darby is moving on a track just north of west,
partly in response to an upper level trough to the northwest of the
system. As it moves further west over the next 24 hours, the upper
level trough will lose some of its influence on the system,
allowing Darby to take a more due west heading. During this time,
the system will weaken further, and the track will be influenced
more by the low level trade wind flow. After 24 hours, a high
pressure system north of the Hawaiian islands will help drive Darby
to the west. The track guidance remains tightly clustered. Our
official track remains close to the previous forecast track, which
remains just a bit north of the middle of the guidance envelope.

The forecast track into Saturday keeps Darby over sea surface
temperatures (SST) of 25-26C. Deep layer shear near the system is
expected to remain 20-25 kt for the next few days. This combination
of shear and marginal SST continue to support weakening. The
intensity guidance agrees and remains tightly clustered as well.
Initially our forecast remains on the higher side of the guidance
envelope, with Darby still expected to become a remnant low by
Saturday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 17.5N 143.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.7N 145.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 17.7N 148.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 17.6N 151.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 17.4N 155.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 17.2N 158.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster M Ballard/R Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 150239
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 23
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
500 PM HST Thu Jul 14 2022

...WEAKENING HURRICANE DARBY MOVING WESTWARD FAR EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 143.4W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 143.4 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue for the next few days. The forecast track will bring the
center of Darby, or it's remnant, south of the Big Island on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next few days,
with Darby expected to become a tropical storm Friday, and further
weaken to a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday before dissipating.

Darby is a small tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds
extending outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center. Tropical
-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster M Ballard/R Ballard


>

Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 150238
TCMCP1

HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052022
0300 UTC FRI JUL 15 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 143.4W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 143.4W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 142.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.7N 145.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.7N 148.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.6N 151.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.4N 155.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.2N 158.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 143.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER M BALLARD/R BALLARD



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 142200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 16.9N 141.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 141.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.3N 144.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.4N 147.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.4N 150.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.2N 153.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.0N 157.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
142200Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 142.3W.
14JUL22. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 798 NM EAST
OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150400Z, 151000Z, 151600Z AND 152200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 142057
TCDCP1

Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 22
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
1100 AM HST Thu Jul 14 2022

Although Darby's appearance was fairly impressive overnight, the
hurricane has recently taken on a very ragged appearance, with the
central dense overcast becoming much less symmetrical around the
center as shear begins to impact the core convection. The initial
intensity was estimated to be 85 kt, a blend of the Dvorak estimates
from PHFO (77 kt), PGTW (90 kt) and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT (87
kt).

The initial motion is 280/14, with Darby located on the southwest
periphery of a mid-level ridge. An upper level trough to the NW of
Darby has been drawing the TC a little north of due west. This
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, then turn
more toward due west as Darby gets farther away from the influence
of this trough, and becomes increasingly steered by the lower level
flow. At that time, strong high pressure north of Hawaii will aid in
an increase in forward speed. The track guidance remains tightly
clustered, and our official forecast lies just north of the the
middle of the guidance envelope.

Darby remains a small tropical cyclone over 26C sea surface
temperatures, and is riding along a strong gradient of deep layer
shear, currently about 20 kt near the center. The shear is
expected to remain moderate, with marginal SSTs along the
forecast track, so the guidance is unanimous about additional
weakening. Our forecast remains just a touch more conservative with
the rate of weakening shown by the guidance owing to the recent
persistence of the well-developed core, but still shows Darby
becoming a remnant low on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 17.0N 142.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 17.3N 144.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 17.4N 147.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 17.4N 150.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 17.2N 153.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 17.0N 157.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster R Ballard/M Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 142048
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 22
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
1100 AM HST Thu Jul 14 2022

...HURRICANE DARBY SLOWLY WEAKENING FAR EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 142.1W
ABOUT 870 MI...1405 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 142.1 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of Darby, or it's remnant, will pass south of the Big Island
on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Significant weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, with Darby expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on
Saturday before dissipating by Sunday.

Darby is a small tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds
extending outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard/M Ballard


>

Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 142048
TCMCP1

HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052022
2100 UTC THU JUL 14 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 142.1W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 142.1W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 141.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.3N 144.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.4N 147.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.4N 150.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.2N 153.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.0N 157.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 142.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD/M BALLARD



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 141600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 140.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 140.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.1N 142.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.2N 145.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.2N 148.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.1N 152.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.9N 155.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
141600Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 141.1W.
14JUL22. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
871 NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
142200Z, 150400Z, 151000Z AND 151600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 141458
TCDCP1

Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 21
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
500 AM HST Thu Jul 14 2022

Darby crossed longitude 140W and officially entered the central
Pacific basin just after midnight HST this morning. The cyclone's
satellite appearance has gone through some fluctuations since the
previous advisory, but an elongated and somewhat ragged 5-10 nm
wide eye has persisted. Pulsing convection continues to encircle the
center, but has become much less symmetric. The initial intensity is
estimated to be 90 kt, supported by a blend of the subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from SAB and HFO, the latest UW-CIMSS objective
Dvorak estimate of 87 kt, and a SATCON near 83 kt.

Darby lies on the southwestern periphery of a ridge aloft, in an
area characterized by moderate southerly vertical wind shear. Darby
is moving closer to an upper-level trough to its northwest, into an
environment characterized by even stronger vertical wind shear, as
evidenced by transverse banding in the northwest semicircle. This
shear will allow the cyclone to efficiently ingest the dry mid-level
air that prevails, while moving over sub-26C SSTs. Since Darby
continues to be a small system, it will quickly respond to the
debilitating environment into which it is moving, with rapid
weakening expected over the next 48 hours before dissipation occurs
by 72 hours. The updated intensity forecast closely follows the
consensus IVCN, as well as the SHIPS guidance.

The initial motion estimate for this advisory is 290/14kt. As Darby
degrades to a shallow system over the next 48 hours, a persistent
strong surface high north of Hawaii will force it to accelerate as
it makes a turn toward the west. The updated track forecast is close
to the previous forecast, and lies very close to the GFEX.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 16.6N 140.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 17.1N 142.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 17.2N 145.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 17.2N 148.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 17.1N 152.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 16.9N 155.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 141438
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 21
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022
500 AM HST Thu Jul 14 2022

...DARBY ENTERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...
...RAPID WEAKENING ANTICIPATED SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 140.9W
ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1155 MI...1860 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 140.9 West. Darby is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next 24 hours, followed by a turn to
the west thereafter. On the forecast track, Darby will pass a few
hundred miles south of the main Hawaiian Islands this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Significant weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Darby is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on
Saturday before dissipating by Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 141436
TCMCP1

HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052022
1500 UTC THU JUL 14 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 140.9W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 140.9W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 140.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.1N 142.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.2N 145.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.2N 148.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.1N 152.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.9N 155.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 140.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 141000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 16.0N 138.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 138.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.6N 141.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.0N 144.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.1N 146.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.0N 149.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.9N 153.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
141000Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 139.8W.
14JUL22. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 951 NM EAST
OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 140400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 15.6N 137.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 137.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.3N 140.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.8N 142.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.0N 145.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.0N 148.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.8N 151.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.7N 154.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
140400Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 138.4W.
14JUL22. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1035 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141000Z, 141600Z, 142200Z AND 150400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 131600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 14.8N 134.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 134.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.4N 137.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.0N 140.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.4N 142.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.6N 145.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.6N 148.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.3N 151.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
131600Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 135.6W.
13JUL22. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1204 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132200Z, 140400Z, 141000Z AND 141600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 132200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 136.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 136.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.7N 138.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.3N 141.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.7N 143.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.8N 146.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.7N 149.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.5N 152.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
132200Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 136.9W.
13JUL22. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1127 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 140901
TCDEP5

Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
1100 PM HST Wed Jul 13 2022

Darby's satellite presentation was still quite impressive near
analysis time this evening, with persistent cold cloud tops
surrounding a clear eye. However, some degradation in the cyclone's
appearance has been noted over the past couple of hours. The
eye has cooled and become a little elongated, and the cyclone
appears to be entraining environmental dry air, leading to
recently-observed breaks in the eye wall. The initial intensity is
estimated to be near 95 kt, representing a slight weakening from the
previous advisory, with Darby now below major hurricane strength.
This estimate is in line with a blend of the subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from HFO/TAFB/SAB, the latest UW-CIMSS objective
Dvorak estimate of 95 kt, and a SATCON value of 97 kt.

Despite Darby holding its own over the past 24-36 hours,
significant weakening is anticipated over the next couple of days.
This is supported by all of the reliable guidance, with Darby
expected to dissipate by this weekend as it passes south of the
main Hawaiian Islands. The updated intensity forecast closely
follows the consensus IVCN, as well as the SHIPS guidance.

Darby lies on the southwestern periphery of a ridge aloft, in an
area characterized by light to moderate vertical wind shear. As
Darby is driven west-northwestward by a mid- and upper-level ridge
to the northeast in the short term, it will move closer to a
upper-level trough to it's northwest, into an environment
characterized by stronger vertical wind shear. This shear will
allow the cyclone to efficiently ingest the dry mid-level air that
prevails, while ths system moves over sub-26C SSTs. Darby is
expected to degrade to a shallow system over the next 48 hours, with
a persistent strong surface high north of Hawaii forcing Darby to
accelerate as it makes a turn toward the west. The updated track
forecast is close to the previous forecast, and lies very close to
the GFEX.

Darby is crossing into the central Pacific basin, and this will be
the final NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Darby
can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center beginning at 1500 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP1
and WMO header WTPA21 PHFO. For information specific to the
Hawaiian Islands, users should continue to consult products from
the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii,
at www.weather.gov/hfo.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 16.2N 139.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 16.6N 141.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 17.0N 144.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 17.1N 146.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 17.0N 149.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 16/1800Z 16.9N 153.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 140856
TCDEP5

Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
1100 PM HST Wed Jul 13 2022

Darby's satellite presentation was still quite impressive near
analysis time this evening, with persistent cold cloud tops
surrounding a clear eye. However, some degradation in the cyclone's
appearance has been noted over the past couple of hours. The
eye has cooled and become a little elongated, and the cyclone
appears to be entraining environmental dry air, leading to
recently-observed breaks in the eye wall. The initial intensity is
estimated to be near 95 kt, representing a slight weakening from the
previous advisory, with Darby now below major hurricane strength.
This estimate is in line with a blend of the subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from HFO/TAFB/SAB, the latest UW-CIMSS objective
Dvorak estimate of 95 kt, and a SATCON value of 97 kt.

Despite Darby holding its own over the past 24-36 hours,
significant weakening is anticipated over the next couple of days.
This is supported by all of the reliable guidance, with Darby
expected to dissipate by this weekend as it passes south of the
main Hawaiian Islands. The updated intensity forecast closely
follows the consensus IVCN, as well as the SHIPS guidance.

Darby lies on the southwestern periphery of a ridge aloft, in an
area characterized by light to moderate vertical wind shear. As
Darby is driven west-northwestward by a mid- and upper-level ridge
to the northeast in the short term, it will move closer to a
upper-level trough to it's northwest, into an environment
characterized by stronger vertical wind shear. This shear will
allow the cyclone to efficiently ingest the dry mid-level air that
prevails, while ths system moves over sub-26C SSTs. Darby is
expected to degrade to a shallow system over the next 48 hours, with
a persistent strong surface high north of Hawaii forcing Darby to
accelerate as it makes a turn toward the west. The updated track
forecast is close to the previous forecast, and lies very close to
the GFEX.

Darby is crossing into the central Pacific basin, and this will be
the final NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Darby
can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center beginning at 1500 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP1
and WMO header WTPA21 PHFO. For information specific to the
Hawaiian Islands, users should continue to consult products from
the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii,
at www.weather.gov/hfo.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 16.2N 139.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 16.6N 141.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 17.0N 144.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 17.1N 146.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 17.0N 149.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 16/1800Z 16.9N 153.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 140846
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
1100 PM HST Wed Jul 13 2022

...DARBY ENTERING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AS A HURRICANE...
...RAPID WEAKENING ANTICIPATED SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 139.5W
ABOUT 1050 MI...1695 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1250 MI...2015 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 139.5 West. Darby is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next 24 hours, followed by a turn to
the west thereafter.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Significant weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Darby is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on
Friday before dissipating this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last Public Advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Darby. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
beginning at 500 am HST Thursday, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1,
WMO header WTPA31 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on
the web at hurricanes.gov.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 140838
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0900 UTC THU JUL 14 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 139.5W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 139.5W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 138.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.6N 141.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.0N 144.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.1N 146.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.0N 149.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.9N 153.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 139.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON DARBY. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
FORECASTS/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP1...WMO HEADER
WTPA21 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 140409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 14.07.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.8N 96.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.07.2022 0 10.8N 96.6W 1009 19
1200UTC 14.07.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE DARBY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 137.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.07.2022 0 15.7N 137.6W 976 72
1200UTC 14.07.2022 12 16.1N 140.2W 985 58
0000UTC 15.07.2022 24 16.7N 142.5W 992 54
1200UTC 15.07.2022 36 17.2N 144.8W 995 57
0000UTC 16.07.2022 48 17.2N 147.4W 1004 41
1200UTC 16.07.2022 60 16.9N 150.9W 1008 37
0000UTC 17.07.2022 72 16.7N 154.5W 1011 33
1200UTC 17.07.2022 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 14.7N 106.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.07.2022 72 14.7N 107.6W 1006 22
1200UTC 17.07.2022 84 15.6N 109.0W 1004 27
0000UTC 18.07.2022 96 16.7N 110.4W 1003 32
1200UTC 18.07.2022 108 18.1N 112.1W 1003 35
0000UTC 19.07.2022 120 19.2N 114.4W 1003 34
1200UTC 19.07.2022 132 20.0N 116.3W 1004 30
0000UTC 20.07.2022 144 20.7N 118.9W 1004 32


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 140409

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 140249
TCDEP5

Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
500 PM HST Wed Jul 13 2022

Darby continues to be a healthy tropical cyclone. In fact, the
subjective intensity estimates from PHFO, TAFB, and SAB, and the
objective ADT and CIMSS SATCON all came it at 102 kt. Based on this
consensus, the initial intensity has been increased to 100 kt,
making Darby a major hurricane once again. Satellite images from
the past couple of hours indicated that the upper level outflow has
started to become a bit asymmetric, which may indicate that Darby is
starting to be affected by the large upper level trough to the
northwest.

The initial motion is 285/14 kt. The cyclone is being
steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the system.
This ridge is expected to maintain a general west-northwest motion
over the next 24 hours or so. As Darby becomes impacted by vertical
shear, it will weaken over the next 24 to 48 hours. As it becomes
an increasingly shallow system, it should turn toward the west. The
trusted dynamical models are in agreement with this scenario and are
in a tightly clustered guidance envelope. The forecast track has
also been quite consistent for several cycles, and current forecast
follows the previous package with a slight northward shift based on
recent movement trends.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are between 25-26C around Darby and
should remain marginal along the forecast track. The main question
is when the forecasted vertical shear will begin to significantly
affect the system. The combination of this vertical shear, marginal
SSTs, and drier low- to mid-tropospheric air should result in a
rapid weakening of Darby, especially considering the small size of
the cyclone. Simulated IR data from the GFS and HWRF indicated that
Darby could maintain an eye tonight, but it would finally collapse
some time Thursday, with the low level circulation becoming
exposed on Friday. The main intensity aids are projecting a rapid
weakening over the next 3 days despite the recent intensification.
The forecast for this advisory is consistent with the previous
forecast and has Darby resuming its weakening trend soon, becoming
a post-tropical/remnant low in 72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 15.9N 138.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 16.3N 140.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 16.8N 142.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 17.0N 145.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 17.0N 148.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 16.8N 151.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 17/0000Z 16.7N 154.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kodama/M Ballard


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 140247
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
500 PM HST Wed Jul 13 2022

...DARBY BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN...
...HURRICANE STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 138.5W
ABOUT 1920 MI...3090 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 138.5 West. Darby is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next 24 hours, followed by a turn to
the west afterward.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Darby is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Darby is forecast to weaken steadily and
become a tropical storm in 24 to 36 hours, and a
post-tropical/remnant low in 72 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kodama/M Ballard


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 140241
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0300 UTC THU JUL 14 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 138.5W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 138.5W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 137.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.3N 140.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.8N 142.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N 145.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.0N 148.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.8N 151.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.7N 154.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 138.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA/M BALLARD



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 132037
TCDEP5

Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 AM HST Wed Jul 13 2022

The eye of Darby has become more distinct since the last advisory,
suggesting that a little more intensification has occurred, In
response, the intensity estimates from various subjective and
objective satellite techniques have nudged upward and are currently
in the 90-100 kt range. The initial intensity is set at a possibly
conservative 95 kt.

While Darby is currently in an environment of light shear and
decent moisture, the center is over sea surface temperatures of
25-26C. This is expected to cause a slow weakening during the next
24 h. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to encounter
moderate to strong westerly shear and move into a very dry air mass,
and this combination is likely to cause rapid weakening. Simulated
satellite imagery from the GFS model indicates that the associated
convection should dissipate around the 48 h point, with Darby
becoming a post-tropical low by 60-72 h. The new intensity
forecast is adjusted upward through the first 24 h, then shows a
somewhat faster weakening than the previous forecast. The global
models are in good agreement that the remnants of Darby will weaken
to a trough by 96 h, so the forecast continues to call for
dissipation by that time.

A strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Darby should
continue to steer the storm generally west-northwestward for the
next 24 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west. There are
only minor adjustments from the previous forecast track, which
lies near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 15.4N 136.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 15.7N 138.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.3N 141.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 16.7N 143.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 16.8N 146.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 16.7N 149.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 16/1800Z 16.5N 152.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 132037
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 AM HST Wed Jul 13 2022

...DARBY RE-INTENSIFIES A LITTLE MORE...
...HURRICANE STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 136.7W
ABOUT 1820 MI...2930 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 136.7 West. Darby is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-
northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected through
tonight followed by a turn toward the west on Thursday or Thursday
night. Darby is forecast to then continue westward through the end
of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Short-term fluctuations in intensity are
possible through tonight. Darby is forecast to resume weakening by
late tonight or on Thursday. The system will likely become a
tropical storm by Thursday night and become post-tropical by Friday
night.

Recent satellite wind data shows that Darby remains a small
hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles
(20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 132036
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022
2100 UTC WED JUL 13 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 136.7W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 136.7W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 136.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.7N 138.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.3N 141.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.7N 143.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.8N 146.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.7N 149.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.5N 152.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 136.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 131434
TCDEP5

Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 AM HST Wed Jul 13 2022

Surprise! The eye of Darby reappeared this morning in IR imagery
after a hiatus overnight. Recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates, and
the U-W CIMSS ADT all support an intensity of 90 kt, so Darby's
intensity was adjusted to that value. It should be stressed that
this appears to be a short-term fluctuation and has not changed the
overall thinking behind the intensity forecast, which calls for
Darby to generally weaken over the next few days.

Darby could maintain its intensity with small fluctuations today,
but all available intensity guidance indicates it will resume
weakening by tonight or tomorrow (if not sooner). This is likely
because it is moving through a marginal environment that includes
SSTs dropping below 26 deg C and 700-500 mb relative humidities
between 55-60 percent based on GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS
diagnostics. After 24 h, an increase in wind shear should cause
Darby to weaken at a faster rate, particularly given the small size
of the hurricane. Simulated satellite output from the GFS, ECMWF and
HWRF models indicate Darby will lose all deep convection and become
post-tropical in about 60 h. The cyclone should subsequently
dissipate about a day after that. The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous forecast and is near or just below the
intensity consensus (IVCN) at all forecast hours.

Virtually no change was made to the NHC track forecast. Darby
appears to have started an expected brief west-northwestward jog,
with an initial motion just north of due west at 14 kt. Darby should
complete that turn and move west-northwestward today, and then turn
westward tomorrow as it weakens through the end of the week. The
official track forecast is based heavily on the multi-model
consensus aids HCCA and TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 15.0N 135.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 15.4N 137.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 16.0N 140.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 16.4N 142.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 16.6N 145.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 16.6N 148.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 16/1200Z 16.3N 151.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 131433
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 AM HST Wed Jul 13 2022

...EYE OF DARBY MAKES A SURPRISE REAPPEARANCE...
...HURRICANE STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 135.4W
ABOUT 1750 MI...2815 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1335 MI...2150 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Darby was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 135.4 West. Darby is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion at a similar forward speed is expected today, followed by at
turn toward the west on Thursday. Darby is forecast to continue
westward after that at a slightly slower forward speed through the
end of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Short-term fluctuations in intensity are possible today.
Darby is forecast to resume weakening by tonight. The system will
likely become a tropical storm on Thursday and become post-tropical
on Friday.

Darby is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 131433
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022
1500 UTC WED JUL 13 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 135.4W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 135.4W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 134.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.4N 137.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.0N 140.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.4N 142.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.6N 145.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.6N 148.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.3N 151.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 135.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 131000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 133.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 133.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.0N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.7N 138.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.2N 141.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.5N 143.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.6N 146.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.5N 149.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.3N 156.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
131000Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 134.2W.
13JUL22. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1286 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131600Z, 132200Z, 140400Z AND 141000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 130839
TCDEP5

Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 12 2022

Darby has been gradually weakening over ocean surface temperatures
near or just below 26 degrees Celsius. Satellite imagery show the
eye has filled in and the extent of the cold cloud tops has shrunk.
A scatterometer pass at 0545 UTC over the inner core revealed a
very small storm. Dvorak CI-numbers from SAB and TAFB estimated
the intensity of Darby at 90 kt. However, objective satellite
intensity estimates ranged between 82 to 87 kt from UW/CIMSS ADT and
SATCON and have been decreasing. The initial intensity has been
lowered to 85 kt to represent a blend of all of these estimates and
the current trend.

The less conducive environmental conditions appear to be taking a
toll on this tiny storm. Based on satellite imagery, Darby is
completely surrounded by a dry mid-level air mass. The hurricane
is also expected to remain over marginal sea surface temperatures
and these two factors should continue to gradually weaken Darby
over the next day or so. The vertical wind shear is predicted to
increase quickly in a couple of days which should rapidly weaken
Darby into a remnant low in about 72 hours. The official intensity
forecast is shifted slightly lower than the previous advisory and
below much of the consensus guidance. Given the small size of
this cyclone, it would not be surprising if Darby weakened even
faster than indicated here.

Darby continues to move westward at about 14 kt while it is
steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. Over the next 24
hours, the system is expected to reach a slight weakness in the
ridge and turn west-northwestward temporarily. While Darby
weakens further it will likely turn west once again and follow the
low-level steering flow until it dissipates. The NHC track forecast
is slightly south of the previous prediction beyond 36 hours and
close to the model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 14.7N 133.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 15.0N 136.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 15.7N 138.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 16.2N 141.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 16.5N 143.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 16.6N 146.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 16.5N 149.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0600Z 16.3N 156.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 130837
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 12 2022

...DARBY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 133.9W
ABOUT 1665 MI...2680 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1440 MI...2315 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 133.9 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward or
west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected to continue through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and the system
is forecast to become a remnant low by late Friday.

Darby is a very small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 130837
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022
0900 UTC WED JUL 13 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 133.9W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 133.9W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 133.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.0N 136.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.7N 138.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.2N 141.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 143.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.6N 146.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.5N 149.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 16.3N 156.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 133.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 130400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 132.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 132.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.9N 134.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.4N 137.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.1N 140.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.6N 142.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.8N 145.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.9N 148.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.8N 154.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
130400Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 132.9W.
13JUL22. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1357 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 37
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131000Z, 131600Z, 132200Z AND 140400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 130240
TCDEP5

Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 PM HST Tue Jul 12 2022

Darby remains an impressive hurricane in conventional satellite
imagery, however the eye is not as defined as it was earlier today.
As noted in the previous discussion, the hurricane is more
asymmetric with the cloud shield favoring the western semicircle.
A 0043 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass revealed some erosion of the
convection over the northern semicircle which is suggestive of some
dry air entrainment over that portion of the circulation. A blend
of the TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers yields an
initial intensity of 95 kt. This is also supported by the latest
UW/CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates which are 95 and 98 kt,
respectively.

Although the vertical shear is expected to remain quite low during
the next 24 hours, Darby will be moving over marginal sea surface
temperatures, which is expected to cause gradual weakening. After
that time, a sharp increase in vertical wind shear and SSTs of 24
to 25 degrees Celsius should result in continued weakening.
Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest Darby
will cease to produce deep convection in a few days and the NHC
forecast calls for the system to become a post-tropical cyclone in
about 72 hours. The remnant low is expected to degenerate into a
trough by day 5, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. There
is not much spread in the intensity model guidance and the official
forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS, ICON, and HCCA
intensity aids.

Darby remains on a steady westward motion at about 15 kt. A
slightly slower westward to west-northwestward track is expected by
Wednesday as the tropical cyclone nears a break in the subtropical
ridge. After 48 hours, a weaker Darby should turn back westward as
the low-level trade wind flow becomes the more dominant steering
layer. Although there is very little cross-track spread in the
dynamical model guidance, the envelope has shifted slightly
southward this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
accordingly. The new NHC track forecast is near the GFEX and TVCE
consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 14.6N 132.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 14.9N 134.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 15.4N 137.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 16.1N 140.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 16.6N 142.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 16.8N 145.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 16.9N 148.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 17/0000Z 16.8N 154.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 130240
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 PM HST Tue Jul 12 2022

...DARBY WEAKENS WHILE CONTINUING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 132.7W
ABOUT 1595 MI...2565 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1520 MI...2445 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 132.7 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A westward or west-
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected to continue through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, but Darby is
expected to remain a hurricane through Wednesday night and a
tropical storm through Thursday night. The system is forecast to
become a post-tropical cyclone by late Friday.

Darby remains a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 130240
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022
0300 UTC WED JUL 13 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 132.7W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 132.7W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 132.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.9N 134.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.4N 137.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.1N 140.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.6N 142.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.8N 145.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.9N 148.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 16.8N 154.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 132.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 122200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 130.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 130.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.8N 133.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.3N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.0N 138.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.6N 141.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.0N 143.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.1N 146.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.0N 152.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
122200Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 131.4W.
12JUL22. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1309 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130400Z, 131000Z, 131600Z AND 132200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 122037
TCDEP5

Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 12 2022

Darby remains a small and formidable hurricane, although there are
some subtle changes in its convective pattern. The hurricane looks
a little more asymmetric in infrared imagery, favoring the western
side, and a black ring on the Dvorak enhancement curve (colder than
-63 degrees Celsius) has struggled to stay wrapped around the eye.
Subjective Dvorak Current Intensity numbers have gradually fallen
closer to objective numbers, and the range of estimated intensities
is now from 90-102 kt. Darby's current intensity is therefore
lowered to 100 kt.

Darby lost a little bit of latitude since overnight, but the
12-hour average motion remains westward, or 270/15 kt. The
hurricane should maintain a westward motion for another 24 hours
but then take on a slightly slower west-northwestward track from
36-48 hours as it moves toward a break in the subtropical ridge.
After 48 hours, a filling of the break and a weaker Darby should
cause the motion to turn back toward the west, continuing through
dissipation in 4-5 days. There is very little spread among the
track guidance, and the only noteworthy point is that the ECMWF and
HCCA aid are faster than much of the other models. The updated
NHC forecast is generally on top of the previous forecast but just
a little faster during the first 36 hours, hedging toward the ECMWF
and HCCA solutions.

Vertical shear over Darby is expected to be 10 kt or less during
the next 36 hours, but marginal sea surface temperatures of 26
degrees Celsius are likely to foster additional gradual weakening
during that time. Southwesterly to westerly shear then increases
in earnest to 20-30 kt on days 2 and 3, which should induce more
significant weakening. The intensity guidance is in very good
agreement, and Darby could weaken below hurricane strength soon
after 48 hours, become post-tropical by day 4, and degenerate into a
trough by day 5. Some of the global model guidance suggest that the
post-tropical phase and dissipation could occur even sooner than
indicated in the official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 14.6N 131.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 14.8N 133.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 15.3N 136.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 16.0N 138.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 16.6N 141.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 17.0N 143.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 17.1N 146.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 17.0N 152.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 122036
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 12 2022

...DARBY FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 131.2W
ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1615 MI...2600 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 131.2 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A westward or
west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected to continue through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Darby is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is
forecast, but Darby is expected to remain a hurricane through early
Thursday and a tropical storm through early Friday.

Darby remains a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 122036
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022
2100 UTC TUE JUL 12 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 131.2W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 131.2W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 130.5W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 14.8N 133.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.3N 136.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.0N 138.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.6N 141.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.0N 143.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.1N 146.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.0N 152.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 131.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 121610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 12.07.2022

HURRICANE DARBY ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 129.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.07.2022 0 14.7N 129.1W 951 87
0000UTC 13.07.2022 12 14.7N 131.7W 972 70
1200UTC 13.07.2022 24 15.1N 134.4W 983 57
0000UTC 14.07.2022 36 15.8N 137.2W 985 63
1200UTC 14.07.2022 48 16.4N 139.8W 988 59
0000UTC 15.07.2022 60 16.9N 142.1W 998 47
1200UTC 15.07.2022 72 17.0N 144.8W 1004 40
0000UTC 16.07.2022 84 17.0N 147.5W 1008 34
1200UTC 16.07.2022 96 16.8N 150.9W 1010 33
0000UTC 17.07.2022 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 17.0N 109.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.07.2022 132 17.3N 109.5W 1005 27
1200UTC 18.07.2022 144 18.6N 111.4W 1007 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 121610

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 121610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.07.2022

HURRICANE DARBY ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 129.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.07.2022 14.7N 129.1W INTENSE
00UTC 13.07.2022 14.7N 131.7W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.07.2022 15.1N 134.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.07.2022 15.8N 137.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.07.2022 16.4N 139.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.07.2022 16.9N 142.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.07.2022 17.0N 144.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.07.2022 17.0N 147.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.07.2022 16.8N 150.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 17.0N 109.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.07.2022 17.3N 109.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.07.2022 18.6N 111.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 121610

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 121600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 14.7N 129.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 129.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.8N 131.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.2N 134.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.8N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.4N 139.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.9N 142.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.2N 144.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.1N 150.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
121600Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 129.9W.
12JUL22. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1260 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122200Z, 130400Z, 131000Z AND 131600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 121459 CCA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 13...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 AM HST Tue Jul 12 2022

Corrected syntax error in headline

...DARBY A BIT WEAKER BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 129.7W
ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 129.7 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue today with a gradual west-northwestward turn beginning
tonight into tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Darby is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast
over the next 24 hours followed by more rapid weakening later this
week.

Darby remains a small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds only
extending outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 121448
TCDEP5

Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 AM HST Tue Jul 12 2022

While Darby remains an impressively compact hurricane, there has
been a bit of erosion in the inner-core convective structure this
morning. The eye in particular has become less distinct and has
cooled relative to yesterday afternoon, though the eyewall
convection remains strong and quite circular. While an AMSR2
microwave pass at 1042 UTC still showed a closed eyewall, the
convection on the northwestern side has eroded some compared to
yesterday. Darby remains a very small tropical cyclone, with
overnight scatterometer wind data indicating tropical-storm-force
winds extend out to 40 n mi to the northeast of the center. While
the latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak classifications were a consensus CI
6.0/115 kt, the objective ADT and SATCON data is quite a bit lower.
The initial intensity on this advisory is set at 110 kt, blending
the guidance, but favoring the somewhat higher subjective Dvorak
estimates.

While the current vertical wind shear (VWS) over Darby remains very
low, sea-surface temperatures underneath the hurricane are gradually
decreasing, now currently just under 27 C. It seems likely that
Darby is now post-peak intensity and should begin to gradually
weaken in the short-term under the less favorable thermodynamic
environment. After 24 hours, a combination of an increasingly stable
and dry airmass, plus an increase in southwesterly VWS from a broad
upper-level trough to the northwest of Darby, is expected to lead to
a more rapid weakening trend later this week. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is still on the high side of the guidance
envelope early on, but then shows a faster rate of weakening as the
small cyclone encounters a more hostile environment. Darby is still
expected to become post-tropical by 96 hours as deep convection is
completely removed from the center and dissipates as suggested by
the GFS and ECMWF models at that period.

Darby continues to move on a due westward heading at 270/14 kt.
There is not much new to report with the track philosophy, as a
mid-level ridge currently north of Darby will be eroded some by the
aforementioned upper-level trough. This should result in a bit more
west-northwest bend in Darby's track between 24-60 hours. After that
period, Darby is expected to become an increasingly shallow vortex,
and its track should turn back westward following the trade-wind
flow around a large low-level subtropical ridge poleward of
Hawaii. The latest track forecast is little changed from the prior
advisory, and remains close to the tightly clustered consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 14.7N 129.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 14.8N 131.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 15.2N 134.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 15.8N 137.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 16.4N 139.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 16.9N 142.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 17.2N 144.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 17.1N 150.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 121445
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 AM HST Tue Jul 12 2022

...DARBY A BIT WEAKER BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE..


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 129.7W
ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 129.7 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue today with a gradual west-northwestward turn beginning
tonight into tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Darby is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast
over the next 24 hours followed by more rapid weakening later this
week.

Darby remains a small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds only
extending outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 121444
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022
1500 UTC TUE JUL 12 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.7W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 75SE 60SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.7W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.8N 131.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.2N 134.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.8N 137.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.4N 139.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.9N 142.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.2N 144.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 17.1N 150.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 129.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 121000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 14.7N 127.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 127.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.8N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.0N 132.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.5N 135.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.2N 137.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.8N 140.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.2N 142.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.3N 148.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.0N 155.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
121000Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 128.3W.
12JUL22. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1217 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 51 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121600Z, 122200Z, 130400Z AND 131000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 120843
TCDEP5

Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

Darby has remained an impressive, compact hurricane with an
annular structure through the night. After a brief period of
eyewall warming, the cold cloud tops surrounding the clear eye now
range between -60 and -70 degrees Celsius. The initial intensity is
held at 120 kt, which is above the subjective Dvorak estimates of
102 kt and 115 kt based on the current presentation in satellite
imagery.

The hurricane is expected to remain in a relatively conducive
environment for the next 12 hours or so. Beyond that time frame,
Darby should encounter cooler waters and increasingly dry air
which will likely begin a general weakening trend. The system is
expected to rapidly weaken and become post-tropical when the
vertical wind shear increases significantly in a few days. The
official intensity forecast closely follows the previous advisory
and is slightly above the model consensus aids in the near-term
forecast.

Darby is moving westward at about 15 kt. A mid-level ridge to the
north should continue to steer the hurricane westward to
west-northwestward into the central Pacific basin. As the system
weakens to a more shallow circulation, it is expected to turn
westward following the low-level trade winds. The NHC track
forecast is slightly south of the previous prediction but is still
north of the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 14.7N 128.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 14.8N 130.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.0N 132.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 15.5N 135.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 16.2N 137.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 16.8N 140.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 17.2N 142.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 17.3N 148.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 17/0600Z 17.0N 155.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 120842
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

...DARBY MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 128.1W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2120 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 128.1 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue today with a gradual turn to the west-northwest
beginning in about a day.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Darby is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Darby is likely to change little in strength
during the next day or so, but rapid weakening is expected after
that.

Darby is a very compact hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 120841
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022
0900 UTC TUE JUL 12 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 128.1W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 128.1W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 127.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.8N 130.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.0N 132.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.5N 135.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.2N 137.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.8N 140.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.2N 142.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 17.3N 148.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 17.0N 155.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 128.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 120409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 12.07.2022

HURRICANE DARBY ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 126.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.07.2022 0 14.7N 126.1W 947 86
1200UTC 12.07.2022 12 14.7N 128.9W 962 74
0000UTC 13.07.2022 24 14.8N 131.6W 977 66
1200UTC 13.07.2022 36 15.2N 134.5W 985 60
0000UTC 14.07.2022 48 15.9N 137.3W 986 61
1200UTC 14.07.2022 60 16.5N 140.1W 988 59
0000UTC 15.07.2022 72 17.0N 142.5W 994 53
1200UTC 15.07.2022 84 17.0N 144.9W 1000 46
0000UTC 16.07.2022 96 17.0N 147.4W 1005 41
1200UTC 16.07.2022 108 16.5N 150.8W 1008 35
0000UTC 17.07.2022 120 16.1N 154.3W 1011 34
1200UTC 17.07.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 30.3N 89.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.07.2022 72 30.7N 89.3W 1009 26
1200UTC 15.07.2022 84 31.4N 89.2W 1008 25
0000UTC 16.07.2022 96 32.0N 89.7W 1007 22
1200UTC 16.07.2022 108 33.0N 90.7W 1010 17
0000UTC 17.07.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 15.1N 105.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.07.2022 132 15.6N 105.3W 1007 31
0000UTC 18.07.2022 144 16.5N 107.2W 1006 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120409

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 120409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.07.2022

HURRICANE DARBY ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 126.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.07.2022 14.7N 126.1W INTENSE
12UTC 12.07.2022 14.7N 128.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 13.07.2022 14.8N 131.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.07.2022 15.2N 134.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.07.2022 15.9N 137.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.07.2022 16.5N 140.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.07.2022 17.0N 142.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.07.2022 17.0N 144.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.07.2022 17.0N 147.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.07.2022 16.5N 150.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.07.2022 16.1N 154.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 30.3N 89.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.07.2022 30.7N 89.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.07.2022 31.4N 89.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.07.2022 32.0N 89.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.07.2022 33.0N 90.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 15.1N 105.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.07.2022 15.6N 105.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.07.2022 16.5N 107.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120409

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 120400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 14.8N 125.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 125.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 15.0N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.1N 131.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.5N 133.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.1N 136.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.7N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.3N 141.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.6N 147.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.4N 153.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
120400Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 126.8W.
12JUL22. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1176 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121000Z, 121600Z, 122200Z AND 130400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 120233
TCDEP5

Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 PM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

Darby has been generally steady in strength during the past several
hours and remains a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. It maintains a classic major hurricane
structure with well-defined outflow in all quadrants, a symmetric
cloud pattern, and a distinct small eye (less than 10 n mi in
diameter). Satellite images indicate that the eye has become even
more defined over the past few hours, but deep convection has been
weakening a little to the west of the eye. All of the satellite
intensity estimates have plateaued and suggest that Darby still has
peak winds of around 120 kt. Although the hurricane is very
powerful, it is quite compact with tropical-storm-force winds
estimated to only extend 50 n mi from the center.

The hurricane has been moving westward, or 275 degrees, at 15 kt. A
general west to west-northwest motion at a slightly slower pace is
expected during the next few days as Darby continues to move on the
south or southwest side of a mid-level ridge, taking the system into
the central Pacific basin in 60-72 hours. After that time, the
weakening system is expected to be steered due westward by the
low-level flow. There are some speed differences in the models, but
they generally show the same theme. This forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope, and roughly between the GFS and
ECMWF models.

Darby is likely near its peak intensity. The major hurricane will
be moving over progressively cooler waters and crossing the 26
degree C isotherm in about 24 hours. In addition, Darby will be
moving into a drier airmass, which should accelerate the weakening
trend. In a few days when Darby is over the central Pacific, a mid-
to upper-level trough should induce strong westerly shear and cause
Darby to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 4 days. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and fairly close
to the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 14.9N 126.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 15.0N 128.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 15.1N 131.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 15.5N 133.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 16.1N 136.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 16.7N 139.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 17.3N 141.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 17.6N 147.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 17/0000Z 17.4N 153.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 120232
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 PM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

...DARBY REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 126.6W
ABOUT 1220 MI...1965 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 126.6 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue tonight with a gradual turn to the west-northwest beginning
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Darby is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Darby is likely to change little in strength
during the next day or so, but rapid weakening is expected after
that.

Darby is a very compact hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 120232
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022
0300 UTC TUE JUL 12 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 126.6W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 5 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 120SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 126.6W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 125.9W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.0N 128.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.1N 131.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.5N 133.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.1N 136.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.7N 139.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N 141.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 17.6N 147.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 17.4N 153.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 126.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 112200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 124.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 124.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.8N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.9N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.1N 132.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.6N 134.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.3N 137.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.0N 140.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.4N 145.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.3N 151.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
112200Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 125.2W.
11JUL22. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1155 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
111800Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120400Z, 121000Z, 121600Z
AND 122200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 112052
TCDEP5

Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

Darby's satellite presentation continues to be very impressive, and
has improved further since this morning. While convective cloud tops
associated with the eyewall convection have not cooled much more,
hovering between -65 to -75 C, the eye temperature has warmed
further, with the warmest pixel fluctuating between +18-20C. The
presentation on visible images is similarly spectacular, with a few
mesovorticies seen rotating around in the eye exhibiting a classic
stadium effect, and the GOES-GLM occasionally showing some inner
core flashes. The latest UW-CIMSS objective Dvorak estimate has
stabilized somewhat at T6.1/117 kt despite the warming eye
temperature. However, very small tropical cyclones like Darby are
often underestimated using objective Dvorak guidance, as was seen
during similarly small systems, like Dorian in 2019 when it near the
Bahamas. I also suspect the eyewall cloud tops have warmed a tad due
to diurnal fluctuations and could cool once again during the typical
nighttime max. The current intensity this advisory will be set at
120 kt, indicating a remarkable intensification rate of 65 kt in the
past 24 hours.

A little bit of additional intensification is possible in the short
term and the latest intensity forecast now peaks Darby as a 125-kt
hurricane in 12 hours, very close to the GFS-SHIPS guidance. It is
notable that this was also the peak intensity that a similarly-small
Hurricane Felicia also reached in this same general vicinity last
July. While shear is expected to remain very low through 48 hours,
sea-surface temperatures do start to decrease and drop below 26C in
36 hours, which should begin a weakening trend by Wednesday.
Vertical wind shear then begins to increase more after 48 hours,
which will likely induce more rapid weakening of the small cyclone.
Both the GFS- and ECMWF model simulated IR-brightness temperature
shows deep convection collapsing on Friday, and the latest forecast
now makes Darby post-tropical by 96 hours.

Darby is still moving westward at 275/13 kt. The track philosophy
has not changed this cycle, as a mid-level ridge is steering the
hurricane generally westward. A slight weakness in the ridge after
24 hours should allow Darby to take a more west-northwestward track
in the 36-72 hour forecast period. As Darby becomes more shallow at
the end of the forecast period, its track is forecast to bend back
westward as the low-level trade wind flow becomes dominant. The
latest track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, still
favoring a blend of the GFS and ECMWF forecasts, but ends up near
the TVCE consensus aid towards the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 14.7N 125.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 14.8N 127.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 14.9N 129.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 15.1N 132.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 15.6N 134.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 16.3N 137.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 17.0N 140.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 17.4N 145.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 16/1800Z 17.3N 151.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 112050
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

...DARBY STILL SMALL BUT NOW A MIGHTY CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 125.0W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 125.0 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue today with a gradual turn to the west-northwest beginning
by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts, making Darby is a powerful category 4 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Darby is expected to
peak in intensity in the next day or so and then begin a weakening
trend by midweek.

Darby remains a small system, with hurricane-force winds only
extending outward 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 112045
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022
2100 UTC MON JUL 11 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 125.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 105SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 125.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 124.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.8N 127.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.9N 129.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.1N 132.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.6N 134.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.3N 137.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.0N 140.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 17.4N 145.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.3N 151.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 125.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 111609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.07.2022

HURRICANE DARBY ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 123.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2022 0 14.5N 123.1W 983 54
0000UTC 12.07.2022 12 14.6N 126.1W 972 68
1200UTC 12.07.2022 24 14.9N 128.8W 975 62
0000UTC 13.07.2022 36 15.1N 131.8W 982 58
1200UTC 13.07.2022 48 15.4N 134.8W 991 53
0000UTC 14.07.2022 60 15.9N 137.6W 991 54
1200UTC 14.07.2022 72 16.5N 140.3W 994 53
0000UTC 15.07.2022 84 17.1N 142.9W 1001 43
1200UTC 15.07.2022 96 17.5N 145.6W 1006 37
0000UTC 16.07.2022 108 17.8N 148.7W 1010 33
1200UTC 16.07.2022 120 17.8N 152.3W 1011 32
0000UTC 17.07.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 35.3N 73.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2022 0 35.3N 73.7W 1010 24
0000UTC 12.07.2022 12 34.6N 72.4W 1010 26
1200UTC 12.07.2022 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 35.8N 67.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2022 0 35.8N 67.2W 1009 29
0000UTC 12.07.2022 12 36.7N 62.5W 1009 29
1200UTC 12.07.2022 24 38.1N 57.6W 1008 43
0000UTC 13.07.2022 36 41.5N 52.0W 1008 37
1200UTC 13.07.2022 48 43.1N 48.0W 1012 33
0000UTC 14.07.2022 60 45.0N 44.1W 1014 28
1200UTC 14.07.2022 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 29.3N 91.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.07.2022 72 29.3N 91.2W 1011 37
0000UTC 15.07.2022 84 29.4N 91.7W 1005 40
1200UTC 15.07.2022 96 29.7N 92.1W 1006 38
0000UTC 16.07.2022 108 30.8N 93.0W 1005 31
1200UTC 16.07.2022 120 31.2N 94.7W 1007 28
0000UTC 17.07.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111609

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 111609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.07.2022

HURRICANE DARBY ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 123.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.07.2022 14.5N 123.1W MODERATE
00UTC 12.07.2022 14.6N 126.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.07.2022 14.9N 128.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2022 15.1N 131.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.07.2022 15.4N 134.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.07.2022 15.9N 137.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.07.2022 16.5N 140.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.07.2022 17.1N 142.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.07.2022 17.5N 145.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.07.2022 17.8N 148.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.07.2022 17.8N 152.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 35.8N 67.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.07.2022 35.8N 67.2W WEAK
00UTC 12.07.2022 36.7N 62.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.07.2022 38.1N 57.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2022 41.5N 52.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2022 43.1N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.07.2022 45.0N 44.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 29.3N 91.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.07.2022 29.3N 91.2W WEAK
00UTC 15.07.2022 29.4N 91.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.07.2022 29.7N 92.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.07.2022 30.8N 93.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.07.2022 31.2N 94.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111609

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 111600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 122.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 122.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.7N 125.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.8N 128.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.0N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.4N 133.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.9N 135.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.7N 138.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.5N 143.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.3N 149.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
111600Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 123.7W.
11JUL22. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1136 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112200Z, 120400Z, 121000Z AND 121600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 111454
TCDEP5

Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

What a difference 24 hours makes! Darby has been rapidly
intensifying for the last 12-18 hours, with the eye continuing to
clear out on GOES-17 infrared satellite imagery surrounded by a
thick ring of cold -65 to -75C cloud top temperatures. It is clear
that the tropical cyclone was able to mix out the remaining dry air
near its center last night and the last several microwave passes
from GMI at 0732 UTC and AMSR2 at 0959 UTC have an impressive
presentation with a thick ring of eyewall convection on the 89-GHz
channel. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are
constrained due to Dvorak rules, but their data-T numbers were both
T5.5/102 kt. The most recent CI number from the UW-CIMSS objective
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) was at T6.0/115 kt. Favoring the
higher ADT estimate more, the current intensity is set to 110 kt,
though this could be conservative.

There are no obvious signs currently that would prevent Darby from
intensifying further. There are few indications that an eyewall
replacement cycle is imminent from the earlier microwave imagery and
SHIPS guidance indicates the storm remains in a very low shear
(near 5 kt) environment and over sufficently warm sea-surface
temperatures (27-28 C). Thus, rapid intensification is forecast to
continue over the next 12 h, and the NHC foreast intensity peaks
Darby at 120 kt, which matches the latest ECMWF- and GFS-based
SHIPS which have correctly been on the high side of the guidance
envelope. After 36 hours, Darby is expected to move into sub 26C
SSTs, and westerly shear is forecast to increase between 48-72
hours. Thus, the small vortex of Darby could weaken rapidly after 36
hours, with the latest intensity forecast still making the system a
post-tropical cyclone at the end of the forecast period.

Darby is continuing westward along at the same general speed and
heading at 270/13 kt, steered primarily by a mid-level ridge
centered to its north. The hurricane is expected to approach a
slight weakness in the ridge after 24 hours, allowing the cyclone to
gradually shift to a more west-northwestward track between 36-72
hours. However, by the end of the forecast period, as Darby becomes
shallow vortex, its track will likely bend back westward as the
low-level trade wind flow becomes dominant. The latest track
forecast is not all that different from the previous one, choosing
to remain close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF forecasts (GEFX)
which remains just a bit north of the consensus aids HCCA and TVCE,
which are influenced by the further south tracks of the weaker
HWRF/HMON/UKMET guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 14.6N 123.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 14.7N 125.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 14.8N 128.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 15.0N 130.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 15.4N 133.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 15.9N 135.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 16.7N 138.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 17.5N 143.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 17.3N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 111449
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

...DARBY STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WITH 125 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 123.4W
ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Major Hurricane Darby was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 123.4 West. Darby is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today with a gradual turn to the
west-northwest beginning by Tuesday.

Darby has been rapidly intensifying this morning and maximum
sustained winds are now near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts.
Darby is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast today, and Darby is
forecast to become a category 4 hurricane. Weakening is then
forecast to begin by midweek.

Darby remains a small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds only
extending outward 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 111448
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022
1500 UTC MON JUL 11 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 123.4W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 123.4W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 122.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.7N 125.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N 128.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.4N 133.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.9N 135.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.7N 138.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 143.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 17.3N 149.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 123.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ65 KNHC 111313
TCUEP5

Hurricane Darby Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
0315 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

...DARBY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...

Recent satellite imagery indicates that Darby has continued to
rapidly strengthen overnight. Darby is now a category 3 hurricane
with estimated maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (195 km/h). This
new intensity will be incorporated into the next full advisory
before 5 AM HST.


SUMMARY OF 315 AM HST...1315 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 123.0W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1655 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 110950
TCDEP5

Hurricane Darby Special Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1200 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

This is a special advisory to update the intensity of the hurricane
and the shorter-term intensity forecast. Recent enhanced infrared
satellite images indicate that Darby's eye has become significantly
better defined and embedded within cloud tops colder than -70C.
Objective Dvorak T-numbers now support an intensity of 90 kt. Based
on this rapid strengthening, the official intensity forecast has
been adjusted upward through the 24-hour period, and now shows Darby
becoming a major hurricane. This is above the model guidance but
follows the current intensification trend.

No changes have been made to the NHC intensity forecast after 24
hours, or to the official track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1000Z 14.5N 122.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 14.6N 124.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 14.8N 126.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 15.4N 131.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 15.8N 134.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 16.4N 137.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 17.4N 142.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 17.8N 147.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 110948
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Special Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1200 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

...DARBY RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM HST...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 122.2W
ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM HST (1000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 122.2 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a
gradual turn toward the west-northwest later this week.

Recent satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is possible, and Darby could become a major
hurricane later today. A weakening trend is expected to begin
later this week.

Darby is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 110947
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DARBY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022
1000 UTC MON JUL 11 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 122.2W AT 11/1000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 122.2W AT 11/1000Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 121.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.6N 124.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.8N 126.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.4N 131.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.8N 134.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.4N 137.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 17.4N 142.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 17.8N 147.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 122.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 111000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 121.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 121.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.6N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.8N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.0N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.4N 131.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.8N 134.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.4N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.4N 142.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.8N 147.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
111000Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 122.1W.
11JUL22. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1115 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 111600Z, 112200Z, 120400Z AND 121000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 110841
TCDEP5

Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 10 2022

Darby continues to improve in organization tonight and appears to
be on a strengthening trend. Satellite imagery shows that the
cloud pattern has become more symmetric and the small hurricane may
be trying to form a clear eye. Subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMSS increased to 65
kt, 77 kt, and 80 kt, respectively. The initial intensity is
increased to 75 kt representing a blend of these estimates.

Low vertical wind shear and warm ocean waters make up the conducive
environmental conditions for Darby to strengthen. The system is
expect to remain in an environment supportive of further
intensification for the next day or so. Statistical guidance, such
as DTOPS, show a higher potential for rapid intensification in the
next 24 hours. Thereafter, the hurricane should reach cooler waters
and begin to weaken. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher
than the previous advisory in the short-term forecast due to the
recent strengthening. It remains above most of the model guidance
early in the forecast period, and close to the consensus after a
couple of days.

The hurricane is moving west at 14 kt. Darby is being steered by a
mid-level ridge to its north and should continue westward for the
next couple of days. Then, the system should turn
west-northwestward as it moves around the southwestern periphery of
the ridge. The official track forecast has been shifted south of
the previous NHC prediction but not as far south as the model
consensus. It is also slower than the consensus aids, favoring the
GFS and ECMWF over the UKMET which seems to be unrealistically fast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 14.5N 121.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 14.6N 124.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 14.8N 126.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 15.4N 131.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 15.8N 134.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 16.4N 137.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 17.4N 142.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 17.8N 147.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 110841
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 10 2022

...DARBY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 121.9W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 121.9 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a
gradual turn toward the west-northwest later this week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next day or so, followed by some weakening by midweek.

Darby is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 110840
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022
0900 UTC MON JUL 11 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 121.9W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 121.9W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 121.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.6N 124.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.8N 126.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.4N 131.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.8N 134.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.4N 137.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 17.4N 142.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 17.8N 147.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 121.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 110408

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.07.2022

HURRICANE DARBY ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 120.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.07.2022 14.4N 120.2W WEAK
12UTC 11.07.2022 14.7N 123.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.07.2022 15.0N 126.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.07.2022 15.1N 129.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2022 15.0N 132.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2022 15.2N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.07.2022 15.6N 137.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.07.2022 15.8N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 36.0N 66.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.07.2022 36.0N 66.9W WEAK
00UTC 12.07.2022 36.9N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.07.2022 38.9N 57.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2022 41.3N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2022 43.2N 48.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.07.2022 45.3N 45.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 30.2N 89.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.07.2022 30.6N 89.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.07.2022 31.7N 90.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.07.2022 32.1N 90.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.07.2022 32.5N 92.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110408

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 110400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 119.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 119.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.7N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.9N 125.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 15.1N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.4N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.0N 132.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.7N 135.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 18.0N 140.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.5N 145.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
110400Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 120.8W.
11JUL22. HURRICANE 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1097
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 111000Z, 111600Z, 112200Z AND 120400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 110237
TCDEP5

Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 PM HST Sun Jul 10 2022

Darby has continued to strengthen since the last advisory. Deep
convection near and over its center has been persistent during the
past several hours, and a series of passive microwave images
revealed a well-defined inner core structure has developed
underneath Darby's small central dense overcast. Although the
subjective Dvorak classifications at 00 UTC were a consensus T3.5/55
kt, the objective ADT and SATCON estimates have recently climbed as
high as 72 kt based on the improved microwave structure of the
storm. Based on these trends, the initial intensity is set at 65 kt
for this advisory, which makes Darby the fourth eastern North
Pacific hurricane this season.

The near-term environmental conditions remain favorable for
additional strengthening, as Darby is forecast to move over warm
SSTs within a low deep-layer shear environment. Although the small
hurricane could be susceptible to additional bouts of dry-air
entrainment, the improved inner-core structure of Darby should allow
the cyclone to continue intensifying over the next day or so before
it reaches cooler waters by Wednesday. The official intensity
forecast is slightly above the previous one and remains on the high
end of the guidance, slightly higher than the HFIP corrected
consensus approach (HCCA) and the SHIPS guidance. By midweek, Darby
is forecast to encounter drier mid-level air as it crosses the 26 C
isotherm, which should induce a weakening trend. Given its small
size, Darby should weaken quickly later in the period, and the day 5
forecast shows Darby as a 30-kt post-tropical remnant low.

Darby's motion is just a bit north of due west at 275/15 kt. Darby
will continue moving quickly westward for the next couple of days,
to the south of an established mid-level ridge that extends across
the eastern North Pacific. As the cyclone reaches the southwestern
extent of the ridge, it is forecast to turn west-northwestward later
this week. There is still some along-track spread noted among the
various global models, with the UKMET much faster and farther south
than the GFS and ECMWF solutions at later forecast times. The
official NHC track forecast remains very close to the previous one,
and is generally just a bit north of the consensus aids and closer
to the GFS/ECMWF consensus (GFEX).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 14.6N 120.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 14.7N 122.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 14.9N 125.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 15.1N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 15.4N 130.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 16.0N 132.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 16.7N 135.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 18.0N 140.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 18.5N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 110236
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 PM HST Sun Jul 10 2022

...DARBY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 120.6W
ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 120.6 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A westward motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a
gradual turn toward the west-northwest by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next day or so, followed by some weakening by midweek.

Darby is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 110236
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022
0300 UTC MON JUL 11 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.6W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.6W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 119.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.7N 122.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.9N 125.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.1N 127.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.4N 130.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.0N 132.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.7N 135.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 18.0N 140.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 18.5N 145.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 120.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 102200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 14.4N 118.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 118.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.5N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.6N 123.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.8N 126.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.0N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.5N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.2N 133.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.8N 138.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.5N 144.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
102200Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 119.3W.
10JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1100
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110400Z, 111000Z, 111600Z AND 112200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 102037
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022

Darby is a small but fairly well-organized tropical cyclone.
1-minute GOES-17 imagery has been quite helpful to diagnose the
system's structure, which consists of a handful of curved bands
around the periphery of the circulation, with pulsing convection
near the center that has, at times, wrapped nearly all the way
around. Earlier microwave imagery showed hints that Darby was
starting to mix-out some of the dry-air entrainment that was noticed
this morning, with even a hint of a mid-level eye becoming evident
on an SSMIS 91-GHz microwave channel at 1421 UTC. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were a consensus CI 3.5/55-kt,
which is the basis for Darby's current intensity this advisory.

Over the next 36-48 hours, the biggest question related to Darby's
future intensity is just how effective the tropical cyclone will be
at preventing additional dry-air intrusions into its inner core.
Because the system has a very small core, it could be prone to rapid
intensity changes, both up and down, even due to seemingly small
fluctuations to its larger-scale environment. While SHIPS guidance
indicates that the deep-layer 200-850 mb shear should remain under
10 kt for the next 48 hours, the direction of the shear vector is
from the north, where there is drier mid-level air. In addition,
there is some sneaky higher northerly mid-level shear that may have
played a role in dry air disrupting the convective structure of
Darby last night and this morning. In any event, assuming the TC is
able to close off its tiny inner core, at least steady
intensification is still anticipated in the short-term. The latest
NHC intensity forecast still peaks Darby as an upper-end Category 1
hurricane by 48 hours, which is on the high end of the guidance, but
closest to the latest SHIPS forecast. Afterwards, northwesterly
shear increases, helping to import even drier mid-level air, and
sea-surface temperatures decrease below 26 C, which will likely lead
to rapid weakening of the small system towards the end of the
forecast period. The latest forecast now indicates Darby becoming a
post-tropical remnant low in 120 hours, not long after it crosses
the 140-degree longitude.

Darby remains on a due westward heading at 270/14 kt. The cyclone
continues to be steered westward by a prominent mid-level ridge to
its north. By 36 hours though, Darby will begin to approach a
weakness in this mid-level ridge, which should allow the system to
begin gaining latitude. While the track guidance continues to
exhibit relatively low across-track spread, there is substantially
more along-track spread between the various deterministic members.
Notably, the UKMET continues to be on the fast-leftward end of the
guidance envelope, which does not seem realistic since Darby is more
vertically deep than that model currently depicts. The latest track
forecast continues to place more emphasis on the slower and stronger
guidance, notably the GFS and ECMWF forecasts, which results in the
track forecast being a little slower and a bit further north than
the reliable guidance aids HCCA and TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 14.4N 119.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 14.5N 121.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 14.6N 123.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 14.8N 126.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 15.0N 128.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 15.5N 131.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 16.2N 133.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 17.8N 138.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 18.5N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 102035
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Darby Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022

...SMALL DARBY FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 119.1W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 119.1 West. Darby is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next day or so with a gradual
west-northwestward turn by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast and Darby
is expected to become a hurricane tonight or on Monday.

Darby is a small tropical cyclone, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward only 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 102034
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022
2100 UTC SUN JUL 10 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 119.1W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 119.1W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 118.4W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.5N 121.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.6N 123.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.8N 126.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.0N 128.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.5N 131.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.2N 133.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 17.8N 138.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 119.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 101600 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 14.3N 116.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 116.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.3N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.3N 122.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.4N 124.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.8N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.2N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.8N 131.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.3N 136.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 18.2N 141.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
101600Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 117.7W.
10JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1104
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED WTPN NUMBER.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 101600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 14.3N 116.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 116.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.3N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.3N 122.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.4N 124.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.8N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.2N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.8N 131.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.3N 136.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 18.2N 141.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
101600Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 117.7W.
10JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1104
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 101445
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022

Darby has become better organized this morning. A 0916 UTC AMSR2 and
more recent 1216 UTC SSMIS microwave pass have revealed increased
banding over the eastern semicircle of the storm and an improved
low-level inner core structure. Early-light visible satellite
imagery also shows an increase in banding and the development of a
small CDO feature. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have
responded accordingly and are now up to 45 and 55 kt from TAFB and
SAB, respectively. Therefore, the initial intensity has been raised
to 50 kt for this advisory.

There still appears to be some entrainment of drier mid-level air
over the northwestern portion of the circulation, but with low
environmental shear and warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) ahead,
Darby should be able to strengthen over the next 36-48 hours. The
updated NHC intensity forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening
during the first day or so, primarily due to the higher initial
intensity. The new forecast calls for Darby to become a hurricane
in about 24 hours, and then peak in intensity in a couple of days.
After that time, gradually decreasing SSTs and a more stable
environment should lead to steady weakening during the remainder of
the forecast period. The NHC wind speed forecast is near the high
end of the guidance during the first 24-48 hours and is in best
agreement with the European-based SHIPS model. Thereafter, it is
close to the various consensus aids.

Darby continues to move westward at about 13 kt. The cyclone should
continue on a westward motion to the south of a mid-level ridge
extending westward from the northern portion of Baja California. In
a few days the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken
which should cause Darby to turn west-northwestward. The track
guidance is in general agreement on this scenario, though the UKMET
model depicts a much weaker Darby and shows a faster westward
motion. The NHC forecast is closest to the ECMWF, which is a little
slower than the consensus aids due to the contribution from the
much faster UKMET model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 14.3N 117.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 14.3N 119.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 14.3N 122.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 14.4N 124.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 14.8N 127.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 15.2N 129.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 15.8N 131.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 17.3N 136.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 18.2N 141.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 101444
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Darby Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022

...DARBY STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 117.6W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 117.6 West. Darby is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next couple of days. A turn toward
the west-northwest is expected by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and Darby is forecast to become a
hurricane tonight or early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 101444
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022
1500 UTC SUN JUL 10 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 117.6W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 117.6W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 116.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.3N 119.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.3N 122.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.4N 124.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N 127.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.2N 129.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.8N 131.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 17.3N 136.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 18.2N 141.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 117.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 101000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 14.3N 115.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 115.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.4N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.3N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.3N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.6N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.9N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.4N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.9N 135.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.1N 139.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
101000Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 116.4W.
10JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1108
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101600Z, 102200Z, 110400Z AND 111000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04E (BONNIE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 100841
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Darby has changed little in structure tonight. Microwave imagery
from SSMIS at 0147 UTC revealed a small inner core with a primary
band to the south of the center. The storm continues to generate a
well-defined upper-level outflow and some bursts of convection with
-80 degrees C or colder cloud top temperatures near the center on
geostationary satellite images. The initial intensity remains at 40
kt for this advisory based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates
from SAB and TAFB.

Convective organization appears to have stalled in the past few
hours, possibly due to some drier mid-level humidities, and as a
result there has been no apparent change in intensity. However,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
strengthening in the next couple days and model guidance indicates
Darby will intensify, possibly into a hurricane. The system is
predicted be over cooler ocean surface temperatures and entering a
drier environment within 72 hours which should lead to weakening for
the remainder of the forecast period. The official NHC intensity
prediction is above most of model guidance for the first couple of
days and then is blended into the consensus for the rest of
forecast.

The tropical storm is moving westward at 13 kt and it is being
steered by a deep-layer ridge to its north. This motion is expected
to continue at a slightly slower forward speed for the next couple
of days. In 3-4 days, Darby should reach a weakness in the ridge
and turn west-northwestward to northwestward. The official NHC track
forecast is a bit slower than the previous one, and it remains close
to the TVCE and HCCA model consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 14.3N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 14.4N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 14.3N 121.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 14.3N 123.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 14.6N 125.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 14.9N 128.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 15.4N 130.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 16.9N 135.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 18.1N 139.8W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 100840
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Darby Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 10 2022

...DARBY CONTINUES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 116.0W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 116.0 West. Darby is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with a gradual decrease in forward speed over
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days or so, and
Darby is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 100840
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022
0900 UTC SUN JUL 10 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 116.0W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 116.0W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 115.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.4N 118.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.3N 121.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.3N 123.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.6N 125.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.9N 128.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.4N 130.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 16.9N 135.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 18.1N 139.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 116.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 100409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 10.07.2022

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 130.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.07.2022 0 19.5N 130.4W 1010 29
1200UTC 10.07.2022 12 19.5N 134.0W 1012 26
0000UTC 11.07.2022 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM DARBY ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 114.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.07.2022 0 14.6N 114.6W 1009 29
1200UTC 10.07.2022 12 14.8N 117.7W 1009 28
0000UTC 11.07.2022 24 14.9N 121.0W 1007 33
1200UTC 11.07.2022 36 15.0N 124.2W 1006 34
0000UTC 12.07.2022 48 15.3N 127.5W 1007 35
1200UTC 12.07.2022 60 15.4N 130.3W 1006 32
0000UTC 13.07.2022 72 15.6N 133.1W 1008 31
1200UTC 13.07.2022 84 15.8N 136.0W 1009 28
0000UTC 14.07.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 34.2N 77.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.07.2022 12 34.2N 77.3W 1010 29
0000UTC 11.07.2022 24 34.0N 73.3W 1009 27
1200UTC 11.07.2022 36 35.4N 68.2W 1005 35
0000UTC 12.07.2022 48 36.3N 63.0W 1005 36
1200UTC 12.07.2022 60 38.1N 58.1W 1006 37
0000UTC 13.07.2022 72 40.8N 54.6W 1008 33
1200UTC 13.07.2022 84 43.5N 51.1W 1013 29
0000UTC 14.07.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 38.3N 62.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.07.2022 24 38.7N 59.3W 1003 41
1200UTC 11.07.2022 36 39.9N 53.9W 1007 35
0000UTC 12.07.2022 48 41.5N 50.4W 1010 29
1200UTC 12.07.2022 60 43.0N 47.6W 1013 33
0000UTC 13.07.2022 72 47.2N 39.4W 1016 30
1200UTC 13.07.2022 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 29.5N 88.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.07.2022 120 30.3N 88.3W 1009 35
1200UTC 15.07.2022 132 30.6N 87.7W 1009 34
0000UTC 16.07.2022 144 30.3N 87.8W 1006 30

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 11.4N 104.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.07.2022 120 11.4N 104.7W 1006 25
1200UTC 15.07.2022 132 12.7N 107.4W 1007 25
0000UTC 16.07.2022 144 13.3N 110.9W 1005 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100409

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 100400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 14.3N 114.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 114.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.4N 117.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.4N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.4N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.5N 125.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.8N 127.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.3N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.6N 134.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 18.0N 139.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
100400Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 115.2W.
10JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1115
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101000Z, 101600Z, 102200Z AND 110400Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 100240
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
900 PM MDT Sat Jul 09 2022

Darby is a small tropical cyclone. Conventional satellite data and
passive microwave imagery indicate its inner core convection has
waned a bit this evening, but it has maintained some curved
convective bands around its center and signs of healthy upper-level
outflow. Hopefully, scatterometer data becomes available overnight
to better assess its current intensity. A blend of the subjective
Dvorak estimates from SAB (T2.5/35 kt) and TAFB (T3.0/45 kt)
supports an initial intensity of 40 kt for this advisory.

Environmental conditions appear quite favorable for Darby to
strengthen during the next couple of days or so. Deep-layer shear is
expected to remain weak (less than 10 kt) as the small storm moves
over SSTs of 28-28.5 degrees Celsius within a moist mid-level
environment. If the inner-core structure of Darby improves
overnight, there is some potential for significant intensification.
In fact, the latest ECMWF SHIPS-RII guidance shows a 41 percent
chance of Darby strengthening by 55 kt during the next 48 h. The
official NHC intensity forecast still lies on the higher end of the
guidance envelope through early next week, close to the SHIPS
guidance and just slightly above the HFIP corrected consensus
approach (HCCA). By 72 h, the storm is forecast to reach cooler
waters and encounter a drier environment, which should induce
weakening that continues through the remainder of the period.

Darby continues to move quickly westward, or 280/15 kt. A deep-layer
ridge centered over the southwestern United States is expected to
steer Darby quickly westward over the next couple of days. Once
Darby reaches a weakness in the ridge by the middle of next week,
the cyclone is forecast to slow down a bit and turn toward the
west-northwest on days 4-5. The official NHC track forecast is very
similar to the previous one, and it remains close to the TVCE and
HCCA aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 14.3N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 14.4N 117.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 14.4N 120.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 14.4N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 14.5N 125.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 14.8N 127.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 15.3N 129.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 16.6N 134.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 18.0N 139.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Flynn


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 100238
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Darby Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
900 PM MDT Sat Jul 09 2022

...DARBY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 114.9W
ABOUT 770 MI...1245 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 114.9 West. Darby is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue with a gradual decrease in forward speed over
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days or so, and
Darby is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Flynn

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 100238
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022
0300 UTC SUN JUL 10 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 114.9W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 114.9W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 114.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.4N 117.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.4N 120.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.4N 122.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.5N 125.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N 127.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.3N 129.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 16.6N 134.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 18.0N 139.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 114.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/FLYNN



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 092200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091530ZJUL2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 14.2N 112.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 112.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.4N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.5N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.4N 121.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.4N 124.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.6N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.0N 129.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.2N 133.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.6N 138.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
092200Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 113.9W.
09JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DARBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1135
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100400Z, 101000Z, 101600Z AND 102200Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 091530).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 092116 CCA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022
2100 UTC SAT JUL 09 2022

CORRECTED GUST VALUE AT CURRENT TIME

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 113.5W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 113.5W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.4N 116.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.5N 118.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.4N 121.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.4N 124.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.6N 127.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.0N 129.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 16.2N 133.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 17.6N 138.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 113.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 092059
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
300 PM MDT Sat Jul 09 2022

The area of low pressure we have been monitoring well offshore the
southwestern coast of Mexico has become much better organized on
conventional satellite imagery throughout the day. The current
structure on visible satellite imagery consists of a well-defined
curved band to the north and west with what already appears to be a
small central dense overcast forming near the estimated center. In
fact, there is already a small dimple beginning to appear on the
last few frames of visible satellite imagery which could be the
initial indications that a small inner core is forming. While C-band
scatterometer imagery (ASCAT-B/C) largely missed the small storm
earlier today, there was a KU-band scatterometer late this morning
that had enough non-rain contaminated vectors to indicate the system
likely possesses a closed circulation. The subjective Dvorak
classifications at 1800 UTC from TAFB/SAB were both T2.0/30 kt, but
given the continued improvement on satellite imagery since then,
advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Darby at this time,
with winds of 35 kt.

The current motion of Darby is just north of due west at 280/14 kt.
A general due westward motion is expected over the next 24-48 h as
the small storm is situated on the south side of a expansive
deep-layer subtropical ridge centered over the southwestern United
States. Towards the end of the forecast period, Darby will be
approaching a weakness in this ridge, which may allow the storm to
start gaining latitude after 48 hours. The initial track forecast of
Darby is very close to the reliable track consensus aids, though is
just a shade further north, in deference to both the GFS and ECMWF
forecasts.

The structure of Darby is quite impressive for a system that has
only recently formed. In addition, both the GFS- and ECMWF-based
SHIPS guidance indicate that the small storm will remain in a low
shear (under 10 kt), warm sea-surface temperatures (above 28C), and
sufficient mid-level moisture for the next 2-3 days. Assuming an
inner core forms relatively soon, this environment likely favors
quick intensification. In fact, the ECMWF SHIPS-RII guidance
indicates a 44 percent chance of a 25 kt or higher increase in
intensity over the next 24 hours. While the current NHC intensity
forecast will not go that high quite yet, it does make Darby a
hurricane in only 36 h. This intensity forecast is on the upper-end
of the guidance envelope, but not far off the HFIP corrected
consensus approach (HCCA) that is also near hurricane intensity in
36 h. Late in the forecast, Darby will likely encounter cooler ocean
waters and much higher shear, which should begin to induce weakening
by the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 14.3N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 14.4N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 14.5N 118.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 14.4N 121.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 14.4N 124.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 14.6N 127.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 15.0N 129.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 16.2N 133.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 17.6N 138.4W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 092051
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Darby Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
300 PM MDT Sat Jul 09 2022

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 113.5W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 113.5 West. Darby is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with a gradual slowdown over the next several
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Darby is
forecast to become a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 092050
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022
2100 UTC SAT JUL 09 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 113.5W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 113.5W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.4N 116.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.5N 118.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.4N 121.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.4N 124.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.6N 127.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.0N 129.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 16.2N 133.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 17.6N 138.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 113.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>