Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for AERE-22
in Japan

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 062100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220706203103
2022070618 05W AERE 026 01 100 13 SATL 060
T000 338N 1444E 035 R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 338N 1454E 035 R034 170 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 339N 1458E 035 R034 160 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 343N 1455E 030
T048 351N 1450E 030
T072 385N 1436E 025
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 026
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 33.8N 144.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.8N 144.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 33.8N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 33.9N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 34.3N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 35.1N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.5N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 33.8N 144.7E.
06JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z
IS 18 FEET.
//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 221N1311E 40
0522070118 230N1308E 45
0522070200 245N1303E 45
0522070206 258N1295E 45
0522070212 266N1283E 40
0522070218 274N1275E 40
0522070300 278N1272E 35
0522070306 282N1269E 30
0522070312 286N1265E 30
0522070318 292N1268E 30
0522070400 301N1274E 30
0522070406 310N1278E 30
0522070412 317N1286E 25
0522070418 328N1294E 25
0522070500 332N1305E 25
0522070506 334N1322E 25
0522070512 336N1339E 25
0522070518 337N1365E 25
0522070600 334N1388E 25
0522070606 340N1417E 25
0522070612 340N1429E 30
0522070618 338N1444E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 026
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 33.8N 144.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.8N 144.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 33.8N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 33.9N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 34.3N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 35.1N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.5N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 33.8N 144.7E.
06JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z
IS 18 FEET.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 061500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220706122746
2022070612 05W AERE 025 01 090 10 SATL 060
T000 340N 1429E 030
T012 338N 1443E 035
T024 338N 1450E 035 R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 338N 1453E 030
T048 344N 1454E 025
T072 372N 1446E 025
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 34.0N 142.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 34.0N 142.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 33.8N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 33.8N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 33.8N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 34.4N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 37.2N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 33.9N 143.3E.
06JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
160 NM SOUTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z,
070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 221N1311E 40
0522070118 230N1308E 45
0522070200 245N1303E 45
0522070206 258N1295E 45
0522070212 266N1283E 40
0522070218 274N1275E 40
0522070300 278N1272E 35
0522070306 282N1269E 30
0522070312 286N1265E 30
0522070318 292N1268E 30
0522070400 301N1274E 30
0522070406 310N1278E 30
0522070412 317N1286E 25
0522070418 328N1294E 25
0522070500 332N1305E 25
0522070506 334N1322E 25
0522070512 336N1339E 25
0522070518 337N1365E 25
0522070600 334N1388E 25
0522070606 340N1417E 25
0522070612 340N1429E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 34.0N 142.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 34.0N 142.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 33.8N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 33.8N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 33.8N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 34.4N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 37.2N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 33.9N 143.3E.
06JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
160 NM SOUTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z,
070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 060900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220706070214
2022070606 05W AERE 024 01 075 25 SATL 060
T000 340N 1417E 025
T012 339N 1433E 030
T024 338N 1442E 035 R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 338N 1448E 030
T048 340N 1452E 030
T072 347N 1452E 025
T096 387N 1437E 020
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 34.0N 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 34.0N 141.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 33.9N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 33.8N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 33.8N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 34.0N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 34.7N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 38.7N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 34.0N 142.1E.
06JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
120 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 221N1311E 40
0522070118 230N1308E 45
0522070200 245N1303E 45
0522070206 258N1295E 45
0522070212 266N1283E 40
0522070218 274N1275E 40
0522070300 278N1272E 35
0522070306 282N1269E 30
0522070312 286N1265E 30
0522070318 292N1268E 30
0522070400 301N1274E 30
0522070406 310N1278E 30
0522070412 317N1286E 25
0522070418 328N1294E 25
0522070500 332N1305E 25
0522070506 334N1322E 25
0522070512 336N1339E 25
0522070518 337N1365E 25
0522070600 334N1388E 25
0522070606 340N1417E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 34.0N 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 34.0N 141.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 33.9N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 33.8N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 33.8N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 34.0N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 34.7N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 38.7N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 34.0N 142.1E.
06JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
120 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 060300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220706012119
2022070600 05W AERE 023 01 100 19 SATL 060
T000 334N 1388E 025
T012 335N 1414E 030
T024 334N 1423E 035 R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 333N 1428E 035 R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 333N 1435E 030
T072 351N 1430E 025
T096 385N 1425E 025
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 33.4N 138.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 33.4N 138.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 33.5N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 33.4N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 33.3N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 33.3N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 35.1N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 38.5N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 33.4N 139.4E.
06JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
122 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 221N1311E 40
0522070118 230N1308E 45
0522070200 245N1303E 45
0522070206 258N1295E 45
0522070212 266N1283E 40
0522070218 274N1275E 40
0522070300 278N1272E 35
0522070306 282N1269E 30
0522070312 286N1265E 30
0522070318 292N1268E 30
0522070400 301N1274E 30
0522070406 310N1278E 30
0522070412 317N1286E 25
0522070418 328N1294E 25
0522070500 332N1305E 25
0522070506 334N1322E 25
0522070512 336N1339E 25
0522070518 337N1365E 25
0522070600 334N1388E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 33.4N 138.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 33.4N 138.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 33.5N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 33.4N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 33.3N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 33.3N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 35.1N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 38.5N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 33.4N 139.4E.
06JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
122 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 052100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220705195110
2022070518 05W AERE 022 01 085 22 SATL 060
T000 337N 1365E 025
T012 340N 1404E 030
T024 340N 1423E 040 R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 338N 1435E 040 R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 337N 1438E 035 R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 346N 1436E 030
T096 379N 1429E 025
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 33.7N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 33.7N 136.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 34.0N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 34.0N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 33.8N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 33.7N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 34.6N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 37.9N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 33.8N 137.5E.
05JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
185 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.
//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 221N1311E 40
0522070118 230N1308E 45
0522070200 245N1303E 45
0522070206 258N1295E 45
0522070212 266N1283E 40
0522070218 274N1275E 40
0522070300 278N1272E 35
0522070306 282N1269E 30
0522070312 286N1265E 30
0522070318 292N1268E 30
0522070400 301N1274E 30
0522070406 310N1278E 30
0522070412 317N1286E 25
0522070418 328N1294E 25
0522070500 332N1305E 25
0522070506 334N1322E 25
0522070512 336N1339E 25
0522070518 337N1365E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 33.7N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 33.7N 136.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 34.0N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 34.0N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 33.8N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 33.7N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 34.6N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 37.9N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 33.8N 137.5E.
05JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
185 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 051500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220705122416
2022070512 05W AERE 021 01 085 11 SATL SYNP 030
T000 335N 1332E 025
T012 338N 1373E 030
T024 339N 1402E 040 R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 339N 1419E 040 R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 340N 1424E 035 R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 345N 1423E 030
T096 372N 1419E 030
T120 411N 1412E 025
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 33.5N 133.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 33.5N 133.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 33.8N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 33.9N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 33.9N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 34.0N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 34.5N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 37.2N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 41.1N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 33.6N 134.2E.
05JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 73 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND
061500Z.//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 221N1311E 40
0522070118 230N1308E 45
0522070200 245N1303E 45
0522070206 258N1295E 45
0522070212 266N1283E 40
0522070218 274N1275E 40
0522070300 278N1272E 35
0522070306 282N1269E 30
0522070312 286N1265E 30
0522070318 292N1268E 30
0522070400 301N1274E 30
0522070406 310N1278E 30
0522070412 317N1286E 25
0522070418 328N1294E 25
0522070500 332N1305E 25
0522070506 334N1319E 25
0522070512 335N1332E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 33.5N 133.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 33.5N 133.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 33.8N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 33.9N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 33.9N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 34.0N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 34.5N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 37.2N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 41.1N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 33.6N 134.2E.
05JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 73 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND
061500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 050900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220705062051
2022070506 05W AERE 020 01 080 12 SATL RADR SYNP 025
T000 334N 1319E 025
T012 338N 1362E 030
T024 340N 1398E 040 R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 341N 1421E 040 R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 343N 1432E 040 R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 347N 1433E 035 R034 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 368N 1430E 035 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 411N 1421E 030
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 33.4N 131.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 33.4N 131.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 33.8N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 34.0N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 34.1N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 34.3N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 34.7N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 36.8N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 41.1N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 33.5N 133.0E.
05JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
SOUTH OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 9 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 221N1311E 40
0522070118 230N1308E 45
0522070200 245N1303E 45
0522070206 258N1295E 45
0522070212 266N1283E 40
0522070218 274N1275E 40
0522070300 278N1272E 35
0522070306 282N1269E 30
0522070312 286N1265E 30
0522070318 292N1268E 30
0522070400 301N1274E 30
0522070406 310N1278E 30
0522070412 317N1286E 25
0522070418 328N1294E 25
0522070500 332N1305E 25
0522070506 334N1319E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 33.4N 131.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 33.4N 131.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 33.8N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 34.0N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 34.1N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 34.3N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 34.7N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 36.8N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 41.1N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 33.5N 133.0E.
05JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
SOUTH OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 9 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 050300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220705011723
2022070500 05W AERE 019 01 065 10 SATL RADR SYNP 060
T000 332N 1305E 025
T012 341N 1338E 025
T024 343N 1380E 030
T036 347N 1418E 040 R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 348N 1434E 040 R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 352N 1437E 035 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 362N 1435E 030
T120 398N 1433E 030
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 33.2N 130.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 33.2N 130.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 34.1N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 34.3N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 34.7N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 34.8N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 35.2N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 36.2N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 39.8N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 33.4N 131.3E.
05JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 41
NM EAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 221N1311E 40
0522070118 230N1308E 45
0522070200 245N1303E 45
0522070206 258N1295E 45
0522070212 266N1283E 40
0522070218 274N1275E 40
0522070300 278N1272E 35
0522070306 282N1269E 30
0522070312 286N1265E 30
0522070318 292N1268E 30
0522070400 301N1274E 30
0522070406 310N1278E 30
0522070412 317N1286E 25
0522070418 328N1294E 25
0522070500 332N1305E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 33.2N 130.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 33.2N 130.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 34.1N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 34.3N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 34.7N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 34.8N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 35.2N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 36.2N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 39.8N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 33.4N 131.3E.
05JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 41
NM EAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 33N 131E
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 1002HPA =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 33N 131E
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 1002HPA =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 042100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 042100UTC 33.1N 129.9E GOOD
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 050900UTC 33.6N 132.3E 40NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 052100UTC 34.0N 136.5E 57NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 042100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 042100UTC 33.1N 129.9E GOOD
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 052100UTC 34.0N 136.5E 57NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 042100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220704191916
2022070418 05W AERE 018 01 030 13 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 328N 1294E 025
T012 342N 1322E 025
T024 346N 1359E 025
T036 348N 1398E 030
T048 348N 1427E 035 R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 352N 1437E 035 R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 362N 1438E 035 R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T120 388N 1430E 030
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 32.8N 129.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 32.8N 129.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 34.2N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 34.6N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 34.8N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 34.8N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 35.2N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 36.2N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.8N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 33.2N 130.1E.
04JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 23
NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.
//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 221N1311E 40
0522070118 230N1308E 45
0522070200 245N1303E 45
0522070206 258N1295E 45
0522070212 266N1283E 40
0522070218 274N1275E 40
0522070300 278N1272E 35
0522070306 282N1269E 30
0522070312 286N1265E 30
0522070318 292N1268E 30
0522070400 301N1274E 30
0522070406 310N1278E 30
0522070412 317N1286E 25
0522070418 328N1294E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 32.8N 129.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 32.8N 129.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 34.2N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 34.6N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 34.8N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 34.8N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 35.2N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 36.2N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.8N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 33.2N 130.1E.
04JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 23
NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TS 2204 AERE (2204)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS AERE IS LOCATED AT 32.6N, 129.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 32.6N 129.4E FAIR
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 050600UTC 33.5N 131.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 051800UTC 33.8N 134.9E 57NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 32.6N 129.4E FAIR
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 33.8N 134.9E 57NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 041800
WARNING 041800.
WARNING VALID 051800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2204 AERE (2204) 998 HPA
AT 32.6N 129.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 33.5N 131.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 33.8N 134.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 041500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041500UTC 31.9N 129.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 050300UTC 33.6N 130.6E 40NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 051500UTC 34.0N 133.5E 57NM 70%
MOVE E 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 061200UTC 34.3N 141.3E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 041500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041500UTC 31.9N 129.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 051500UTC 34.0N 133.5E 57NM 70%
MOVE E 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 061200UTC 34.3N 141.3E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 041500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220704124717
2022070412 05W AERE 017 01 040 09 SATL SYNP 020
T000 315N 1285E 025
T012 330N 1301E 025
T024 339N 1325E 025
T036 344N 1358E 025
T048 345N 1393E 030
T072 345N 1432E 035 R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 353N 1435E 035 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 374N 1429E 025
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 31.5N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 31.5N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 33.0N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 33.9N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 34.4N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 34.5N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 34.5N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 35.3N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 37.4N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 31.9N 128.9E.
04JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
114 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z,
050900Z AND 051500Z.//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 221N1311E 40
0522070118 230N1308E 45
0522070200 245N1303E 45
0522070206 258N1295E 45
0522070212 266N1283E 40
0522070218 274N1275E 40
0522070300 278N1272E 35
0522070306 282N1269E 30
0522070312 286N1265E 30
0522070318 292N1268E 30
0522070400 301N1274E 30
0522070406 308N1278E 25
0522070412 315N1285E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 31.5N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 31.5N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 33.0N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 33.9N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 34.4N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 34.5N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 34.5N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 35.3N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 37.4N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 31.9N 128.9E.
04JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
114 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z,
050900Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TS 2204 AERE (2204)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS AERE IS LOCATED AT 31.4N, 128.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-19/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 31.4N 128.8E FAIR
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 050000UTC 33.5N 129.9E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 051200UTC 33.7N 132.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 061200UTC 34.3N 141.3E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 31.4N 128.8E FAIR
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 33.7N 132.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 061200UTC 34.3N 141.3E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 041200
WARNING 041200.
WARNING VALID 051200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2204 AERE (2204) 996 HPA
AT 31.4N 128.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 33.5N 129.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 33.7N 132.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 34.3N 141.3E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040900UTC 31.2N 128.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 042100UTC 33.1N 128.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 050900UTC 33.7N 131.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 060600UTC 34.5N 139.4E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 040900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040900UTC 31.2N 128.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 050900UTC 33.7N 131.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 060600UTC 34.5N 139.4E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 040900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220704064322
2022070406 05W AERE 016 01 025 08 SATL RADR SYNP 015
T000 308N 1278E 025
T012 324N 1291E 025
T024 337N 1311E 020
T036 344N 1341E 020
T048 345N 1376E 025
T072 343N 1429E 035 R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 350N 1435E 035 R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 373N 1424E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 30.8N 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 30.8N 127.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.4N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 33.7N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 34.4N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 34.5N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 34.3N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 35.0N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 37.3N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 31.2N 128.1E.
04JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 221N1311E 40
0522070118 230N1308E 45
0522070200 245N1303E 45
0522070206 258N1295E 45
0522070212 266N1283E 40
0522070218 274N1275E 40
0522070300 278N1272E 35
0522070306 282N1269E 30
0522070312 286N1265E 30
0522070318 292N1268E 30
0522070400 301N1274E 30
0522070406 308N1278E 25

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 30.8N 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 30.8N 127.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.4N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 33.7N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 34.4N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 34.5N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 34.3N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 35.0N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 37.3N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 31.2N 128.1E.
04JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169
NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND
050900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 2204 AERE (2204)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS AERE IS LOCATED AT 30.8N, 127.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 30.8N 127.8E FAIR
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 041800UTC 32.9N 128.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 050600UTC 33.6N 131.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 060600UTC 34.5N 139.4E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 30.8N 127.8E FAIR
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 33.6N 131.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 060600UTC 34.5N 139.4E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 040600
WARNING 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2204 AERE (2204) 996 HPA
AT 30.8N 127.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 32.9N 128.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 33.6N 131.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 34.5N 139.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040300UTC 30.5N 127.6E FAIR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 041500UTC 32.2N 128.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 050300UTC 33.6N 130.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 060000UTC 34.2N 137.7E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 040300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040300UTC 30.5N 127.6E FAIR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 050300UTC 33.6N 130.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 060000UTC 34.2N 137.7E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 040300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220704015906
2022070400 05W AERE 015 01 035 10 SATL 025
T000 300N 1275E 030
T012 314N 1285E 030
T024 328N 1300E 030
T036 340N 1326E 025
T048 346N 1360E 025
T072 346N 1418E 035 R034 140 NE QD 155 SE QD 080 SW QD 085 NW QD
T096 351N 1441E 035 R034 165 NE QD 115 SE QD 085 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 368N 1432E 030
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 30.0N 127.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 30.0N 127.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 31.4N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 32.8N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 34.0N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 34.6N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 34.6N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 35.1N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 36.8N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 30.3N 127.8E.
04JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
217 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.
//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 221N1311E 40
0522070118 230N1308E 45
0522070200 245N1303E 45
0522070206 258N1295E 45
0522070212 266N1283E 40
0522070218 274N1275E 40
0522070300 278N1272E 35
0522070306 282N1269E 30
0522070312 286N1265E 30
0522070318 292N1268E 30
0522070400 300N1275E 30

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 30.0N 127.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 30.0N 127.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 31.4N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 32.8N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 34.0N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 34.6N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 34.6N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 35.1N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 36.8N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 30.3N 127.8E.
04JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
217 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 2204 AERE (2204)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS AERE IS LOCATED AT 29.8N, 127.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 29.8N 127.1E FAIR
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 041200UTC 31.4N 127.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 050000UTC 33.0N 129.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 060000UTC 34.2N 137.7E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 29.8N 127.1E FAIR
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 33.0N 129.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 060000UTC 34.2N 137.7E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 040000
WARNING 040000.
WARNING VALID 050000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2204 AERE (2204) 996 HPA
AT 29.8N 127.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 31.4N 127.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 33.0N 129.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 34.2N 137.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 032100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 032100UTC 29.6N 127.0E FAIR
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 040900UTC 31.2N 127.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 042100UTC 32.9N 129.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 051800UTC 33.6N 135.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 061800UTC 34.2N 141.5E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 032100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 032100UTC 29.6N 127.0E FAIR
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 042100UTC 32.9N 129.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 051800UTC 33.6N 135.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 061800UTC 34.2N 141.5E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 032100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220703195837
2022070318 05W AERE 014 02 025 07 SATL 020
T000 292N 1268E 030
T012 306N 1275E 030
T024 321N 1288E 030
T036 334N 1310E 025
T048 341N 1343E 025
T072 345N 1404E 030
T096 347N 1439E 035 R034 210 NE QD 175 SE QD 095 SW QD 135 NW QD
T120 359N 1440E 035 R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 100 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 29.2N 126.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 126.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 30.6N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.1N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 33.4N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 34.1N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 34.5N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 34.7N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 35.9N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 29.5N 127.0E.
03JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
277 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (CHABA) FOR THE FINAL WARNING
//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 221N1311E 40
0522070118 230N1308E 45
0522070200 245N1303E 45
0522070206 258N1295E 45
0522070212 266N1283E 40
0522070218 274N1275E 40
0522070300 278N1272E 35
0522070306 282N1269E 30
0522070312 286N1265E 30
0522070318 292N1268E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 29.2N 126.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 126.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 30.6N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.1N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 33.4N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 34.1N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 34.5N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 34.7N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 35.9N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 29.5N 127.0E.
03JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
277 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (CHABA) FOR THE FINAL WARNING
ON THAT SYSTEM (WTPN32 PGTW).
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 2204 AERE (2204)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS AERE IS LOCATED AT 29.2N, 126.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS ONLY
A VORTEX CONSISTING OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 29.2N 126.8E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 040600UTC 30.7N 127.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 041800UTC 32.5N 128.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 051800UTC 33.6N 135.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 061800UTC 34.2N 141.5E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 29.2N 126.8E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 041800UTC 32.5N 128.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 051800UTC 33.6N 135.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 061800UTC 34.2N 141.5E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 031800
WARNING 031800.
WARNING VALID 041800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2204 AERE (2204) 996 HPA
AT 29.2N 126.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 30.7N 127.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 32.5N 128.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 33.6N 135.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 34.2N 141.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 031500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031500UTC 28.8N 126.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 040300UTC 30.2N 127.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 041500UTC 31.8N 128.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 051200UTC 33.6N 133.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 061200UTC 34.0N 139.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 071200UTC 34.5N 144.0E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 031500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031500UTC 28.8N 126.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 041500UTC 31.8N 128.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 051200UTC 33.6N 133.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 061200UTC 34.0N 139.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 031500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220703123746
2022070312 05W AERE 013 02 320 05 SATL RADR 020
T000 286N 1265E 030
T012 299N 1269E 030
T024 314N 1279E 030
T036 327N 1296E 025
T048 336N 1323E 025
T072 344N 1387E 025
T096 350N 1432E 030
T120 359N 1442E 030
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 28.6N 126.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 28.6N 126.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 29.9N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 31.4N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 32.7N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 33.6N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 34.4N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 35.0N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 35.9N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 28.9N 126.6E.
03JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
144 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 031200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z
AND 041500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (CHABA) WARNINGS
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 221N1311E 40
0522070118 230N1308E 45
0522070200 245N1303E 45
0522070206 258N1295E 45
0522070212 266N1283E 40
0522070218 274N1275E 40
0522070300 278N1272E 35
0522070306 282N1269E 30
0522070312 286N1265E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 28.6N 126.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 28.6N 126.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 29.9N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 31.4N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 32.7N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 33.6N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 34.4N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 35.0N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 35.9N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 28.9N 126.6E.
03JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
144 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 031200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z
AND 041500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (CHABA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 2204 AERE (2204)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS AERE IS LOCATED AT 28.5N, 126.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM IS NOW ONLY A VORTEX CONSISTING OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 28.5N 126.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 040000UTC 29.9N 127.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 041200UTC 31.5N 128.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 051200UTC 33.6N 133.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 061200UTC 34.0N 139.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 071200UTC 34.5N 144.0E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 28.5N 126.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 31.5N 128.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 051200UTC 33.6N 133.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 061200UTC 34.0N 139.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 031200
WARNING 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2204 AERE (2204) 996 HPA
AT 28.5N 126.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 29.9N 127.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 31.5N 128.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 33.6N 133.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 34.0N 139.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 34.5N 144.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030900UTC 28.5N 126.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 032100UTC 29.6N 127.0E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 040900UTC 31.1N 127.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 050600UTC 33.3N 131.6E 105NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 060600UTC 34.1N 137.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 070600UTC 35.1N 142.9E 230NM 70%
MOVE E 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 080600UTC 37.3N 143.4E 320NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 030900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030900UTC 28.5N 126.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 040900UTC 31.1N 127.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 050600UTC 33.3N 131.6E 105NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 060600UTC 34.1N 137.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 030900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220703070907
2022070306 05W AERE 012 02 325 05 SATL RADR 015
T000 282N 1269E 030
T012 294N 1269E 030
T024 308N 1277E 030
T036 321N 1291E 030
T048 335N 1310E 025
T072 346N 1365E 025
T096 358N 1422E 025
T120 371N 1444E 030
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 012
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 28.2N 126.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2N 126.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.4N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 30.8N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.1N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 33.5N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 34.6N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 35.8N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 37.1N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 28.5N 126.9E.
03JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
113 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 030600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z.
//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 221N1311E 40
0522070118 230N1308E 45
0522070200 245N1303E 45
0522070206 258N1295E 45
0522070212 266N1283E 40
0522070218 274N1275E 40
0522070300 278N1272E 35
0522070306 282N1269E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 012
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 28.2N 126.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2N 126.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.4N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 30.8N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.1N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 33.5N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 34.6N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 35.8N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 37.1N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 28.5N 126.9E.
03JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
113 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 030600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z
AND 040900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN32 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 2204 AERE (2204)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS AERE IS LOCATED AT 28.1N, 126.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 28.1N 126.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 031800UTC 29.2N 127.0E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 040600UTC 30.6N 127.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 050600UTC 33.3N 131.6E 105NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 060600UTC 34.1N 137.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 070600UTC 35.1N 142.9E 230NM 70%
MOVE E 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 080600UTC 37.3N 143.4E 320NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 28.1N 126.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 30.6N 127.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 050600UTC 33.3N 131.6E 105NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 060600UTC 34.1N 137.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 030600
WARNING 030600.
WARNING VALID 040600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2204 AERE (2204) 996 HPA
AT 28.1N 126.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 29.2N 127.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 30.6N 127.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 33.3N 131.6E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 34.1N 137.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 35.1N 142.9E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 37.3N 143.4E WITH 320 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030300UTC 27.9N 127.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 031500UTC 29.0N 126.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 040300UTC 30.3N 127.5E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 050000UTC 32.3N 129.6E 105NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 060000UTC 34.3N 136.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 070000UTC 35.4N 140.6E 230NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 080000UTC 37.3N 142.8E 320NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 030300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030300UTC 27.9N 127.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 040300UTC 30.3N 127.5E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 050000UTC 32.3N 129.6E 105NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 060000UTC 34.3N 136.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 030300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220703014147
2022070300 05W AERE 011 02 325 05 SATL 020
T000 278N 1272E 035 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 289N 1269E 035 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 302N 1272E 030
T036 317N 1283E 030
T048 328N 1302E 030
T072 345N 1348E 025
T096 350N 1391E 020
T120 362N 1427E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 27.8N 127.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 127.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.9N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.2N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 31.7N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 32.8N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 34.5N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 35.0N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 36.2N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 28.1N 127.1E.
03JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 221N1311E 40
0522070118 230N1308E 45
0522070200 245N1303E 45
0522070206 258N1295E 45
0522070212 266N1283E 40
0522070218 274N1275E 40
0522070300 278N1272E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2204 AERE (2204)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS AERE IS LOCATED AT 27.8N, 127.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, DRY AIR AND
LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 27.8N 127.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 127.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.9N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.2N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 31.7N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 32.8N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 34.5N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 35.0N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 36.2N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 28.1N 127.1E.
03JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON
THAT SYSTEM. (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 27.8N 127.2E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 031200UTC 28.7N 126.7E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 040000UTC 30.0N 127.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 050000UTC 32.3N 129.6E 105NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 060000UTC 34.3N 136.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 070000UTC 35.4N 140.6E 230NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 080000UTC 37.3N 142.8E 320NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 27.8N 127.2E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 040000UTC 30.0N 127.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 050000UTC 32.3N 129.6E 105NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 060000UTC 34.3N 136.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 030000
WARNING 030000.
WARNING VALID 040000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2204 AERE (2204) 996 HPA
AT 27.8N 127.2E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 28.7N 126.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 30.0N 127.3E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 32.3N 129.6E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 34.3N 136.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 35.4N 140.6E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 37.3N 142.8E WITH 320 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 022100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 022100UTC 27.6N 127.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 030900UTC 28.5N 126.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 032100UTC 29.6N 127.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 041800UTC 31.7N 128.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 051800UTC 33.4N 134.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 061800UTC 35.0N 139.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 071800UTC 37.0N 142.4E 280NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 022100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 022100UTC 27.6N 127.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 032100UTC 29.6N 127.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 041800UTC 31.7N 128.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 051800UTC 33.4N 134.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 022100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220702200538
2022070218 05W AERE 010 02 320 11 SATL 030
T000 274N 1275E 040 R034 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 286N 1268E 040 R034 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 296N 1268E 035 R034 105 NE QD 115 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 311N 1274E 035
T048 324N 1291E 030
T072 342N 1339E 025
T096 352N 1382E 020
T120 361N 1417E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 27.4N 127.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4N 127.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.6N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.6N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 31.1N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.4N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 34.2N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 35.2N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 36.1N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 27.7N 127.3E.
02JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 56 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.
//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 221N1311E 40
0522070118 230N1308E 45
0522070200 245N1303E 45
0522070206 258N1295E 45
0522070212 266N1283E 40
0522070218 274N1275E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 27.4N 127.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4N 127.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.6N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.6N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 31.1N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.4N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 34.2N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 35.2N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 36.1N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 27.7N 127.3E.
02JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 56 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2204 AERE (2204)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS AERE IS LOCATED AT 27.1N, 127.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, DRY AIR
AND LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 27.1N 127.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 29.3N 126.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 041800UTC 31.7N 128.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 051800UTC 33.4N 134.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 021800
WARNING 021800.
WARNING VALID 031800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2204 AERE (2204) 996 HPA
AT 27.1N 127.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 28.1N 126.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 29.3N 126.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 31.7N 128.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 33.4N 134.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 35.0N 139.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 37.0N 142.4E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 27.1N 127.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 030600UTC 28.1N 126.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 031800UTC 29.3N 126.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 041800UTC 31.7N 128.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 051800UTC 33.4N 134.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 061800UTC 35.0N 139.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 071800UTC 37.0N 142.4E 280NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 021500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021500UTC 26.7N 127.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 030300UTC 28.1N 126.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 031500UTC 29.4N 126.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 041200UTC 31.9N 126.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 051200UTC 33.3N 129.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 061200UTC 34.5N 138.0E 230NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 071200UTC 36.1N 141.5E 320NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 021500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021500UTC 26.7N 127.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 031500UTC 29.4N 126.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 041200UTC 31.9N 126.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 051200UTC 33.3N 129.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2204 AERE (2204)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS AERE IS LOCATED AT 26.3N, 128.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND LAND. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 021500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220702132514
2022070212 05W AERE 009 02 315 15 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 268N 1283E 040 R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 284N 1271E 040 R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 297N 1266E 035 R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 308N 1266E 035 R034 130 NE QD 220 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 319N 1275E 030
T072 338N 1308E 025
T096 349N 1359E 025
T120 353N 1404E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 26.8N 128.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8N 128.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 28.4N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 29.7N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.8N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 31.9N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 33.8N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 34.9N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 35.3N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 27.2N 128.0E.
02JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 32 NM
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z
AND 031500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNINGS
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 221N1311E 40
0522070118 230N1308E 45
0522070200 245N1303E 45
0522070206 258N1295E 45
0522070212 268N1283E 40

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 26.8N 128.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8N 128.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 28.4N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 29.7N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.8N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 31.9N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 33.8N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 34.9N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 35.3N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 27.2N 128.0E.
02JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 32 NM
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z
AND 031500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 26.3N 128.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 030000UTC 27.8N 126.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 031200UTC 29.1N 126.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 041200UTC 31.9N 126.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 051200UTC 33.3N 129.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 061200UTC 34.5N 138.0E 230NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 071200UTC 36.1N 141.5E 320NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 26.3N 128.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 031200UTC 29.1N 126.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 041200UTC 31.9N 126.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 051200UTC 33.3N 129.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 021200
WARNING 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2204 AERE (2204) 994 HPA
AT 26.3N 128.1E SEA AROUND OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 27.8N 126.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 29.1N 126.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 31.9N 126.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 33.3N 129.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 34.5N 138.0E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 36.1N 141.5E WITH 320 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 26.4N 128.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 022100UTC 27.8N 127.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 030900UTC 28.9N 126.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 040600UTC 31.2N 126.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 050600UTC 33.1N 129.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 060600UTC 34.2N 135.4E 230NM 70%
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 070600UTC 34.3N 140.4E 320NM 70%
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 020900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 26.4N 128.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030900UTC 28.9N 126.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 040600UTC 31.2N 126.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 050600UTC 33.1N 129.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 020900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220702074516
2022070206 05W AERE 008 02 330 15 SATL RADR 030
T000 258N 1295E 045 R034 105 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 276N 1279E 045 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 290N 1271E 050 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
T036 301N 1268E 045 R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 313N 1272E 040 R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 334N 1298E 030
T096 347N 1352E 030
T120 351N 1397E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 25.8N 129.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8N 129.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.6N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 29.0N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.1N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 31.3N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 33.4N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 34.7N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 35.1N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 26.3N 129.1E.
02JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z,
030300Z AND 030900Z. //
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 221N1311E 40
0522070118 230N1308E 45
0522070200 245N1303E 45
0522070206 258N1295E 45

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 25.8N 129.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8N 129.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.6N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 29.0N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.1N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 31.3N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 33.4N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 34.7N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 35.1N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 26.3N 129.1E.
02JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z,
030300Z AND 030900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 04W (CHABA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2204 AERE (2204)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS AERE IS LOCATED AT 25.8N, 129.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 25.8N 129.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 021800UTC 27.5N 127.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 030600UTC 28.7N 126.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 040600UTC 31.2N 126.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 050600UTC 33.1N 129.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 060600UTC 34.2N 135.4E 230NM 70%
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 070600UTC 34.3N 140.4E 320NM 70%
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 25.8N 129.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030600UTC 28.7N 126.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 040600UTC 31.2N 126.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 050600UTC 33.1N 129.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 020600
WARNING 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2204 AERE (2204) 996 HPA
AT 25.8N 129.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 27.5N 127.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 28.7N 126.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 31.2N 126.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 33.1N 129.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 34.2N 135.4E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 34.3N 140.4E WITH 320 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020300UTC 25.2N 130.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 021500UTC 27.3N 127.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 030300UTC 28.5N 126.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 040000UTC 30.3N 126.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 050000UTC 32.8N 127.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 060000UTC 34.0N 132.9E 230NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 070000UTC 34.1N 139.6E 320NM 70%
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 020300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020300UTC 25.2N 130.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 030300UTC 28.5N 126.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 040000UTC 30.3N 126.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 050000UTC 32.8N 127.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 020300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220702022236
2022070200 05W AERE 007 02 345 16 SATL RADR 030
T000 245N 1303E 045 R034 110 NE QD 125 SE QD 055 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 264N 1286E 050 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 280N 1274E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 105 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 291N 1270E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 303N 1272E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 115 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 327N 1291E 040 R034 095 NE QD 135 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 341N 1331E 030
T120 347N 1377E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 24.5N 130.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5N 130.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.4N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 28.0N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 29.1N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.3N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 32.7N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 34.1N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 34.7N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 129.9E.
02JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 181 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 221N1311E 40
0522070118 230N1308E 45
0522070200 245N1303E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 24.5N 130.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5N 130.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.4N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 28.0N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 29.1N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.3N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 32.7N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 34.1N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 34.7N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 129.9E.
02JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 181 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 04W (CHABA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2204 AERE (2204)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS AERE IS LOCATED AT 24.6N, 130.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED
FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 24.6N 130.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 021200UTC 27.0N 128.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 030000UTC 28.3N 126.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 040000UTC 30.3N 126.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 050000UTC 32.8N 127.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 060000UTC 34.0N 132.9E 230NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 070000UTC 34.1N 139.6E 320NM 70%
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 24.6N 130.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 030000UTC 28.3N 126.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 040000UTC 30.3N 126.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 050000UTC 32.8N 127.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 020000
WARNING 020000.
WARNING VALID 030000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2204 AERE (2204) 998 HPA
AT 24.6N 130.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 27.0N 128.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 28.3N 126.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 30.3N 126.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 32.8N 127.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 34.0N 132.9E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 34.1N 139.6E WITH 320 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 24.0N 130.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 020900UTC 26.3N 128.7E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 022100UTC 27.9N 127.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 031800UTC 29.6N 126.7E 105NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 041800UTC 32.4N 128.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 051800UTC 34.2N 133.0E 260NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 061800UTC 35.0N 139.4E 320NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 24.0N 130.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 022100UTC 27.9N 127.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 031800UTC 29.6N 126.7E 105NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 041800UTC 32.4N 128.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 012100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220701201248
2022070118 05W AERE 006 02 340 10 SATL 030
T000 230N 1308E 045 R034 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 000 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 252N 1294E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 270N 1279E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 280N 1271E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 293N 1268E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 321N 1281E 040 R034 115 NE QD 130 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 339N 1315E 030
T120 351N 1365E 025
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 23.0N 130.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 130.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.2N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.0N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.3N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.1N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 33.9N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 35.1N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 130.4E.
01JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 221N1312E 40
0522070118 230N1308E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 23.0N 130.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 130.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.2N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.0N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.3N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.1N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 33.9N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 35.1N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 130.4E.
01JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 04W (CHABA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2204 AERE (2204)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS AERE IS LOCATED AT 23.4N, 131.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-20/ATMS
85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP
AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 23.4N 131.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 020600UTC 25.9N 129.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 021800UTC 27.4N 127.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 031800UTC 29.6N 126.7E 105NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 041800UTC 32.4N 128.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 051800UTC 34.2N 133.0E 260NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 061800UTC 35.0N 139.4E 320NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 23.4N 131.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 27.4N 127.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 031800UTC 29.6N 126.7E 105NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 041800UTC 32.4N 128.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 011800
WARNING 011800.
WARNING VALID 021800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2204 AERE (2204) 998 HPA
AT 23.4N 131.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 25.9N 129.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 27.4N 127.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 29.6N 126.7E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 32.4N 128.9E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 34.2N 133.0E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 35.0N 139.4E WITH 320 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 011500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011500UTC 22.9N 131.5E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 020300UTC 25.2N 129.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 021500UTC 26.9N 127.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 031200UTC 29.0N 126.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 041200UTC 32.4N 128.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 051200UTC 34.2N 131.7E 230NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 061200UTC 35.9N 136.9E 320NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 011500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011500UTC 22.9N 131.5E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 021500UTC 26.9N 127.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 031200UTC 29.0N 126.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 041200UTC 32.4N 128.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 011500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220701132522
2022070112 05W AERE 005 02 360 12 SATL 060
T000 222N 1312E 040 R034 080 NE QD 115 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 244N 1303E 045 R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 261N 1289E 050 R050 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 276N 1278E 050 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 293N 1271E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 320N 1276E 050 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 342N 1306E 040 R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 359N 1349E 025
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 131.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 131.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.4N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.1N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 27.6N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 29.3N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 32.0N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 34.2N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 35.9N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 131.0E.
01JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 318 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
0522070112 222N1312E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 131.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 131.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.4N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.1N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 27.6N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 29.3N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 32.0N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 34.2N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 35.9N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 131.0E.
01JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 318 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2204 AERE (2204)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS AERE IS LOCATED AT 22.2N, 131.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-19/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP AND WEAK VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 22.2N 131.8E FAIR
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 020000UTC 24.7N 130.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 021200UTC 26.4N 128.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 031200UTC 29.0N 126.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 041200UTC 32.4N 128.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 051200UTC 34.2N 131.7E 230NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 061200UTC 35.9N 136.9E 320NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 22.2N 131.8E FAIR
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 26.4N 128.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 031200UTC 29.0N 126.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 041200UTC 32.4N 128.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 011200
WARNING 011200.
WARNING VALID 021200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2204 AERE (2204) 998 HPA
AT 22.2N 131.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 24.7N 130.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 26.4N 128.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 29.0N 126.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 32.4N 128.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 34.2N 131.7E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 35.9N 136.9E WITH 320 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 010900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010900UTC 21.5N 131.5E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 012100UTC 24.1N 130.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 020900UTC 26.0N 128.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 030600UTC 28.4N 126.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 040600UTC 31.1N 127.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 050600UTC 34.3N 130.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 060600UTC 35.8N 133.2E 320NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 010900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010900UTC 21.5N 131.5E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 020900UTC 26.0N 128.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 030600UTC 28.4N 126.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 040600UTC 31.1N 127.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 010900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220701085735
2022070106 05W AERE 004 02 360 06 SATL 030
T000 210N 1312E 040 R034 080 NE QD 115 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 227N 1309E 040 R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 248N 1295E 045 R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 266N 1282E 050 R050 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 282N 1274E 050 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 310N 1272E 045 R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 336N 1292E 035 R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 363N 1313E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 21.0N 131.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 131.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.7N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.8N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.6N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.2N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 31.0N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 33.6N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 36.3N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 131.1E.
01JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 193N1307E 25
0522063018 199N1309E 30
0522070100 204N1312E 40
0522070106 210N1312E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 21.0N 131.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 131.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.7N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.8N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.6N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.2N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 31.0N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 33.6N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 36.3N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 131.1E.
01JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 21.0N 131.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 131.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.7N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.8N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.6N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.2N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 31.0N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 33.6N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 36.3N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 131.1E.
01JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 2204 AERE (2204)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS AERE IS LOCATED AT 20.9N, 131.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS,
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 20.9N 131.2E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 011800UTC 23.3N 130.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 020600UTC 25.5N 129.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 030600UTC 28.4N 126.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 040600UTC 31.1N 127.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 050600UTC 34.3N 130.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 060600UTC 35.8N 133.2E 320NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 20.9N 131.2E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 020600UTC 25.5N 129.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 030600UTC 28.4N 126.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 040600UTC 31.1N 127.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 010600
WARNING 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2204 AERE (2204) 1000 HPA
AT 20.9N 131.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 23.3N 130.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 25.5N 129.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 28.4N 126.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 31.1N 127.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 34.3N 130.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 35.8N 133.2E WITH 320 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 010300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010300UTC 20.5N 131.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 020300UTC 24.9N 129.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 030000UTC 27.8N 126.9E 130NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 040000UTC 30.8N 126.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 050000UTC 34.5N 128.9E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 060000UTC 36.6N 131.9E 390NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 010300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010300UTC 20.5N 131.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 020300UTC 24.9N 129.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 030000UTC 27.8N 126.9E 130NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 040000UTC 30.8N 126.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 010300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220701011932
2022070100 05W FIVE 003 02 060 08 SATL 030
T000 203N 1309E 035 R034 065 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 223N 1305E 045 R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 243N 1296E 050 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 200 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 260N 1284E 055 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 190 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 277N 1275E 060 R050 070 NE QD 150 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 305N 1273E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 334N 1278E 035 R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 370N 1292E 025
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 20.3N 130.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 130.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.3N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.3N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.0N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 27.7N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.5N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 33.4N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 37.0N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 130.8E.
01JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 409 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 196N1305E 25
0522063018 199N1302E 30
0522070100 203N1309E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 20.3N 130.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 130.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.3N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.3N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.0N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 27.7N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.5N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 33.4N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 37.0N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 130.8E.
01JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 409 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 2204 AERE (2204)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 19.9N, 130.9E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(AERE) STATUS. TS AERE IS LOCATED AT 20.1N, 130.9E. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW
DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 20.1N 130.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 020000UTC 24.4N 130.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 030000UTC 27.8N 126.9E 130NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 040000UTC 30.8N 126.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 050000UTC 34.5N 128.9E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 060000UTC 36.6N 131.9E 390NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2204 AERE (2204) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 20.1N 130.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 020000UTC 24.4N 130.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 030000UTC 27.8N 126.9E 130NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 040000UTC 30.8N 126.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 010000
WARNING 010000.
WARNING VALID 020000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2204 AERE (2204) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA
AT 20.1N 130.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 24.4N 130.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 27.8N 126.9E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 30.8N 126.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 34.5N 128.9E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 36.6N 131.9E WITH 390 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 302100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 220630202252
2022063018 05W FIVE 002 02 315 04 SATL 030
T000 199N 1302E 030
T012 217N 1300E 040 R034 185 NE QD 230 SE QD 085 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 236N 1293E 045 R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 080 SW QD 135 NW QD
T036 258N 1282E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 160 SE QD 075 SW QD 135 NW QD
T048 277N 1270E 050 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 185 SE QD 130 SW QD 145 NW QD
T072 303N 1265E 045 R034 185 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 105 NW QD
T096 336N 1276E 035
T120 367N 1309E 025
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 19.9N 130.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 130.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.7N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 23.6N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.8N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.7N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.3N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 33.6N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 36.7N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 130.2E.
30JUN22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
417 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0522062700 58N1350E 15
0522062706 59N1345E 15
0522062712 60N1340E 15
0522062718 74N1334E 15
0522062800 89N1325E 15
0522062806 106N1315E 15
0522062812 123N1309E 15
0522062818 140N1306E 15
0522062900 152N1305E 15
0522062906 166N1304E 15
0522062912 173N1307E 15
0522062918 178N1310E 15
0522063000 183N1313E 20
0522063006 189N1310E 25
0522063012 196N1305E 25
0522063018 199N1302E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 19.9N 130.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 130.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.7N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 23.6N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.8N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.7N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.3N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 33.6N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 36.7N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 130.2E.
30JUN22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
417 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>