Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for CHABA-22
in China

Global Telecommunication Service

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Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.





Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 030745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 030600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CHABA (2203) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (24.2 N) ONE ONE
ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC
TWO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (26.6 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 24N 111E
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 994HPA =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 24N 111E
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 994HPA =

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 030445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 030300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CHABA (2203) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (23.7 N) ONE
ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC
TWO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (26.1 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 030300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030300UTC 24.1N 110.6E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 031500UTC 24.8N 110.8E 30NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 040300UTC 25.9N 111.5E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 030300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030300UTC 24.1N 110.6E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 040300UTC 25.9N 111.5E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHABA IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 23.6N, 110.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM
THE CSC. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 030145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 030000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CHABA (2203) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (23.3 N) ONE
ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (25.8 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 23.6N 110.7E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 031200UTC 24.4N 110.4E 30NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 040000UTC 25.2N 111.1E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 23.6N 110.7E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 040000UTC 25.2N 111.1E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 030000
WARNING 030000.
WARNING VALID 040000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2203 CHABA (2203) 990 HPA
AT 23.6N 110.7E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 24.4N 110.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 25.2N 111.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 022245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 022100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CHABA (2203) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (22.7 N) ONE ONE
ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (25.4 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (111.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 022100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 022100UTC 23.1N 110.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 030900UTC 24.2N 110.4E 25NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 032100UTC 25.4N 111.1E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 022100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 022100UTC 23.1N 110.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 032100UTC 25.4N 111.1E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHABA IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 22.6N, 110.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED
MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED
PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2203 CHABA (2203) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 22.6N 110.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 030600UTC 23.9N 110.3E 25NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 031800UTC 25.2N 110.8E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2203 CHABA (2203) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 22.6N 110.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 25.2N 110.8E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 021800
WARNING 021800.
WARNING VALID 031800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2203 CHABA (2203) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 985 HPA
AT 22.6N 110.4E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 23.9N 110.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 25.2N 110.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 021645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 021500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHABA (2203) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (110.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (24.6 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 021500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021500UTC 22.3N 110.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 030300UTC 23.6N 110.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 031500UTC 24.6N 110.4E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 021500
WARNING 021500.
WARNING VALID 031500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2203 CHABA (2203) 985 HPA
AT 22.3N 110.5E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 23.6N 110.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031500UTC AT 24.6N 110.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 021500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021500UTC 22.3N 110.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 031500UTC 24.6N 110.4E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CHABA IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 21.9N, 110.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED
MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED
PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 021345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 021200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHABA (2203) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8
N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (110.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 21.9N 110.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 030000UTC 23.3N 110.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 031200UTC 24.4N 110.3E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 21.9N 110.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 031200UTC 24.4N 110.3E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 021200
WARNING 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2203 CHABA (2203) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 980
HPA
AT 21.9N 110.8E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 23.3N 110.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 24.4N 110.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 020900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 21.7N 110.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 022100UTC 23.1N 110.3E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 030900UTC 24.1N 110.1E 42NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 020900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 21.7N 110.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 030900UTC 24.1N 110.1E 42NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 020900
WARNING 020900.
WARNING VALID 030900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2203 CHABA (2203) 970 HPA
AT 21.7N 110.9E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 23.1N 110.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 24.1N 110.1E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2203 CHABA (2203)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CHABA IS LOCATED AT 21.2N, 111.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT06. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 020900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 220702063357
2022070206 04W CHABA 011 02 330 07 SATL RADR 015
T000 212N 1112E 070 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 224N 1104E 050 R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 235N 1101E 035
T036 244N 1102E 025
T048 253N 1105E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 011
1. TYPHOON 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 21.2N 111.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 111.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.4N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 23.5N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.4N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 25.3N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 111.0E.
02JUL22. TYPHOON 04W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z,
030300Z AND 030900Z.//
0422062518 137N1304E 15
0422062600 138N1289E 15
0422062606 141N1271E 15
0422062612 149N1252E 15
0422062618 151N1243E 15
0422062700 153N1232E 15
0422062706 157N1211E 10
0422062712 162N1198E 15
0422062718 165N1184E 15
0422062800 167N1170E 15
0422062806 160N1160E 15
0422062812 157N1163E 20
0422062818 154N1166E 20
0422062900 154N1170E 20
0422062906 160N1162E 20
0422062912 155N1155E 20
0422062918 151N1148E 30
0422063000 156N1152E 35
0422063006 160N1155E 35
0422063012 172N1151E 40
0422063018 176N1147E 45
0422070100 183N1141E 50
0422070100 183N1141E 50
0422070106 189N1134E 55
0422070106 189N1134E 55
0422070112 193N1128E 60
0422070112 193N1128E 60
0422070118 201N1121E 65
0422070118 201N1121E 65
0422070118 201N1121E 65
0422070200 206N1116E 75
0422070200 206N1116E 75
0422070200 206N1116E 75
0422070206 212N1112E 70
0422070206 212N1112E 70
0422070206 212N1112E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 020745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 020600 UTC, TYPHOON CHABA (2203) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N) ONE ONE ONE
POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC
TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (23.8 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (109.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (25.7 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 21.2N 111.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 111.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.4N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 23.5N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.4N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 25.3N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 111.0E.
02JUL22. TYPHOON 04W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z,
030300Z AND 030900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 21.2N 111.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 021800UTC 22.6N 110.2E 30NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 030600UTC 23.7N 109.9E 42NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 21.2N 111.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 030600UTC 23.7N 109.9E 42NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 020600
WARNING 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2203 CHABA (2203) 965 HPA
AT 21.2N 111.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 22.6N 110.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 23.7N 109.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 020445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 020300 UTC, TYPHOON CHABA (2203) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT
FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC
TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (23.3 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (109.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (25.1 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (109.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 020300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020300UTC 20.8N 111.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 021500UTC 22.2N 110.4E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 030300UTC 23.4N 110.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 040000UTC 25.1N 110.5E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 020300
WARNING 020300.
WARNING VALID 030300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2203 CHABA (2203) 965 HPA
AT 20.8N 111.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 22.2N 110.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 23.4N 110.1E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 020300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020300UTC 20.8N 111.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 030300UTC 23.4N 110.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 040000UTC 25.1N 110.5E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2203 CHABA (2203)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CHABA IS LOCATED AT 20.6N, 111.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360
DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD
UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT06 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 020300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 220702022152
2022070200 04W CHABA 010 02 315 07 SATL RADR 030
T000 206N 1116E 075 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 218N 1107E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 229N 1101E 040 R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 239N 1100E 025
T048 249N 1102E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 010
1. TYPHOON 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 111.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 111.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.8N 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.9N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.9N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.9N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 111.4E.
02JUL22. TYPHOON 04W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 177 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0422062518 137N1304E 15
0422062600 138N1289E 15
0422062606 141N1271E 15
0422062612 149N1252E 15
0422062618 151N1243E 15
0422062700 153N1232E 15
0422062706 157N1211E 10
0422062712 162N1198E 15
0422062718 165N1184E 15
0422062800 167N1170E 15
0422062806 160N1160E 15
0422062812 157N1163E 20
0422062818 154N1166E 20
0422062900 154N1170E 20
0422062906 160N1162E 20
0422062912 155N1155E 20
0422062918 151N1148E 30
0422063000 156N1152E 35
0422063006 160N1155E 35
0422063012 172N1151E 40
0422063018 176N1147E 45
0422070100 183N1141E 50
0422070100 183N1141E 50
0422070106 189N1134E 55
0422070106 189N1134E 55
0422070112 193N1128E 60
0422070112 193N1128E 60
0422070118 201N1121E 65
0422070118 201N1121E 65
0422070118 201N1121E 65
0422070200 206N1116E 75
0422070200 206N1116E 75
0422070200 206N1116E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 111.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 111.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.8N 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.9N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.9N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.9N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 111.4E.
02JUL22. TYPHOON 04W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 177 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2203 CHABA (2203) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 20.6N 111.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 021200UTC 21.9N 110.5E 30NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 030000UTC 23.0N 110.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 040000UTC 25.1N 110.5E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2203 CHABA (2203) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 20.6N 111.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 030000UTC 23.0N 110.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 040000UTC 25.1N 110.5E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 020000
WARNING 020000.
WARNING VALID 030000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2203 CHABA (2203) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 965 HPA
AT 20.6N 111.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 21.9N 110.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 23.0N 110.1E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 25.1N 110.5E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 012245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 012100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHABA (2203) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3
N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC
TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (22.6 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (109.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (24.7 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (109.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 20.5N 111.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 020900UTC 21.7N 110.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 022100UTC 22.7N 110.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 031800UTC 24.2N 109.8E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 20.5N 111.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 022100UTC 22.7N 110.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 031800UTC 24.2N 109.8E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 012100
WARNING 012100.
WARNING VALID 022100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2203 CHABA (2203) 975 HPA
AT 20.5N 111.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 21.7N 110.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 22.7N 110.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 012100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 220701200426
2022070118 04W CHABA 009 02 320 10 SATL RADR 040
T000 201N 1121E 065 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 145 SE QD 100 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 213N 1110E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 225N 1102E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 236N 1100E 030
T048 247N 1102E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 009
1. TYPHOON 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 009
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 04W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 20.1N 112.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 112.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 21.3N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.5N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 23.6N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.7N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 111.8E.
01JUL22. TYPHOON 04W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 177 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0422062518 137N1304E 15
0422062600 138N1289E 15
0422062606 141N1271E 15
0422062612 149N1252E 15
0422062618 151N1243E 15
0422062700 153N1232E 15
0422062706 157N1211E 10
0422062712 162N1198E 15
0422062718 165N1184E 15
0422062800 167N1170E 15
0422062806 160N1160E 15
0422062812 157N1163E 20
0422062818 154N1166E 20
0422062900 154N1170E 20
0422062906 160N1162E 20
0422062912 155N1155E 20
0422062918 151N1148E 30
0422063000 156N1152E 35
0422063006 160N1155E 35
0422063012 172N1151E 40
0422063018 176N1147E 45
0422070100 183N1141E 50
0422070100 183N1141E 50
0422070106 189N1134E 55
0422070106 189N1134E 55
0422070112 193N1128E 60
0422070112 193N1128E 60
0422070118 201N1121E 65
0422070118 201N1121E 65
0422070118 201N1121E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 009
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 04W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 20.1N 112.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 112.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 21.3N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.5N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 23.6N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.7N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 111.8E.
01JUL22. TYPHOON 04W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 177 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CHABA IS LOCATED AT 20.2N, 112E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360
DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 011945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 011800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHABA (2203) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC
TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (22.4 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (109.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 20.2N 112.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 020600UTC 21.4N 111.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 021800UTC 22.3N 110.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 031800UTC 24.2N 109.8E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 20.2N 112.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 22.3N 110.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 031800UTC 24.2N 109.8E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 011800
WARNING 011800.
WARNING VALID 021800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2203 CHABA (2203) 975 HPA
AT 20.2N 112.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 21.4N 111.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 22.3N 110.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 24.2N 109.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 011645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 011500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHABA (2203) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC
TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC
TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (23.9 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (109.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (25.4 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (109.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 011500
WARNING 011500.
WARNING VALID 021500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2203 CHABA (2203) 975 HPA
AT 19.7N 112.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 20.9N 111.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 21.9N 110.3E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 011500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011500UTC 19.7N 112.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 020300UTC 20.9N 111.4E 30NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 021500UTC 21.9N 110.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 031200UTC 23.8N 109.9E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 011500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011500UTC 19.7N 112.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021500UTC 21.9N 110.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 031200UTC 23.8N 109.9E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 011500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 220701140736
2022070112 04W CHABA 008 02 310 09 SATL 030
T000 196N 1129E 060 R050 055 NE QD 095 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 185 SE QD 190 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 207N 1120E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 219N 1111E 055 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 230N 1105E 035 R034 050 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 248N 1106E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 19.6N 112.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 112.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.7N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.9N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.0N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.8N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 112.7E.
01JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0422062518 137N1304E 15
0422062600 138N1289E 15
0422062606 141N1271E 15
0422062612 149N1252E 15
0422062618 151N1243E 15
0422062700 153N1232E 15
0422062706 157N1211E 10
0422062712 162N1198E 15
0422062718 165N1184E 15
0422062800 167N1170E 15
0422062806 160N1160E 15
0422062812 157N1163E 20
0422062818 154N1166E 20
0422062900 154N1170E 20
0422062906 160N1162E 20
0422062912 155N1155E 20
0422062918 151N1148E 30
0422063000 156N1152E 35
0422063006 160N1155E 35
0422063012 172N1151E 40
0422063018 176N1147E 45
0422070100 183N1141E 50
0422070100 183N1141E 50
0422070106 190N1136E 55
0422070106 190N1136E 55
0422070112 196N1129E 60
0422070112 196N1129E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 19.6N 112.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 112.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.7N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.9N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.0N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.8N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 112.7E.
01JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CHABA IS LOCATED AT 19.6N, 112.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND
BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 011345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 011200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHABA (2203) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3
N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (110.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC
TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (23.6 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (109.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (25.3 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (109.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 19.6N 112.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 020000UTC 20.6N 111.7E 30NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 021200UTC 21.7N 110.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 031200UTC 23.8N 109.9E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 19.6N 112.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 21.7N 110.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 031200UTC 23.8N 109.9E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 011200
WARNING 011200.
WARNING VALID 021200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2203 CHABA (2203) 975 HPA
AT 19.6N 112.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 20.6N 111.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 21.7N 110.6E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 23.8N 109.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 011045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 010900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHABA (2203) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC
TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (23.4 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (109.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (25.1 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 010900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010900UTC 19.3N 112.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020900UTC 21.5N 110.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 030600UTC 23.1N 110.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 040600UTC 25.1N 110.9E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 010900
WARNING 010900.
WARNING VALID 020900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2203 CHABA (2203) 980 HPA
AT 19.3N 112.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 21.5N 110.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 010900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010900UTC 19.3N 112.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020900UTC 21.5N 110.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 030600UTC 23.1N 110.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 040600UTC 25.1N 110.9E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 010900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 220701073950
2022070106 04W CHABA 007 02 325 08 SATL 030
T000 190N 1136E 055 R050 055 NE QD 095 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 185 SE QD 190 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 200N 1122E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 180 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 211N 1113E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 221N 1106E 055 R050 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 231N 1103E 035
T072 249N 1108E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 19.0N 113.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 113.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.0N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 21.1N 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.1N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 23.1N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 24.9N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 113.2E.
01JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0422062518 137N1304E 15
0422062600 138N1289E 15
0422062606 141N1271E 15
0422062612 149N1252E 15
0422062618 151N1243E 15
0422062700 153N1232E 15
0422062706 157N1211E 10
0422062712 162N1198E 15
0422062718 165N1184E 15
0422062800 167N1170E 15
0422062806 160N1160E 15
0422062812 157N1163E 20
0422062818 154N1166E 20
0422062900 154N1170E 20
0422062906 160N1162E 20
0422062912 155N1155E 20
0422062918 151N1148E 30
0422063000 156N1152E 35
0422063006 160N1155E 35
0422063012 172N1151E 40
0422063018 176N1147E 45
0422070100 183N1141E 50
0422070100 183N1141E 50
0422070106 190N1136E 55
0422070106 190N1136E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 19.0N 113.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 113.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.0N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 21.1N 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.1N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 23.1N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 24.9N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 113.2E.
01JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CHABA IS LOCATED AT 18.9N, 113E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 010745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 010600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHABA (2203) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0
N) ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (113.2 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (110.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC
TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (22.8 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (109.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC
TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (23.8 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 18.9N 113.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020600UTC 21.1N 110.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 030600UTC 23.1N 110.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 040600UTC 25.1N 110.9E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 18.9N 113.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020600UTC 21.1N 110.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 030600UTC 23.1N 110.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 040600UTC 25.1N 110.9E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 010600
WARNING 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2203 CHABA (2203) 980 HPA
AT 18.9N 113.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 21.1N 110.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 23.1N 110.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 25.1N 110.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 010445 CCA

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 010300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHABA (2203) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4
N) ONE ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (113.8 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (20.8 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC
TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (22.7 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC
TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (23.4 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 010445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 010300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHABA (2203) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4
N) ONE ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (113.8 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (20.8 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC
TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (22.7 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC
TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (23.4 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 010300
WARNING 010300.
WARNING VALID 020300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2203 CHABA (2203) 980 HPA
AT 18.6N 113.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 20.7N 111.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 010300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010300UTC 18.6N 113.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020300UTC 20.7N 111.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 030000UTC 22.6N 109.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 040000UTC 24.5N 110.0E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 010300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010300UTC 18.6N 113.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020300UTC 20.7N 111.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 030000UTC 22.6N 109.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 040000UTC 24.5N 110.0E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 010300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 220701021709
2022070100 04W CHABA 006 02 320 09 SATL 030
T000 183N 1141E 050 R034 105 NE QD 120 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 194N 1125E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 204N 1112E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 214N 1103E 060 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 224N 1098E 045 R034 050 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 243N 1101E 025
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 18.3N 114.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 114.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.4N 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.4N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.4N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.4N 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.3N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 113.7E.
01JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0422062518 137N1304E 15
0422062600 138N1289E 15
0422062606 141N1271E 15
0422062612 149N1252E 15
0422062618 151N1243E 15
0422062700 153N1232E 15
0422062706 157N1211E 10
0422062712 162N1198E 15
0422062718 165N1184E 15
0422062800 167N1170E 15
0422062806 160N1160E 15
0422062812 157N1163E 20
0422062818 154N1166E 20
0422062900 154N1170E 20
0422062906 160N1162E 20
0422062912 155N1155E 20
0422062918 151N1148E 30
0422063000 156N1152E 35
0422063006 160N1155E 35
0422063012 172N1151E 40
0422063018 176N1147E 45
0422070100 183N1141E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 18.3N 114.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 114.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.4N 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.4N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.4N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.4N 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.3N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 113.7E.
01JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05W (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CHABA IS LOCATED AT 18.5N, 114.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT48. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 010145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 010000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHABA (2203) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1
N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC
TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (22.5 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (24.0 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 18.5N 114.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 020000UTC 20.4N 111.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 030000UTC 22.6N 109.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 040000UTC 24.5N 110.0E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 18.5N 114.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 020000UTC 20.4N 111.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 030000UTC 22.6N 109.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 040000UTC 24.5N 110.0E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 010000
WARNING 010000.
WARNING VALID 020000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2203 CHABA (2203) 980 HPA
AT 18.5N 114.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 20.4N 111.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 22.6N 109.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 24.5N 110.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 302245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 302100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHABA (2203) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6
N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 012100 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC
TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (22.3 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (109.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC
TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (23.8 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 302100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 302100UTC 17.9N 114.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 012100UTC 19.7N 111.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 021800UTC 21.9N 110.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 031800UTC 23.6N 109.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 041800UTC 25.4N 110.2E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 302100
WARNING 302100.
WARNING VALID 012100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2203 CHABA (2203) 985 HPA
AT 17.9N 114.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 19.7N 111.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 302100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 302100UTC 17.9N 114.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 012100UTC 19.7N 111.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 021800UTC 21.9N 110.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 031800UTC 23.6N 109.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 302100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 220630194438
2022063018 04W CHABA 005 02 315 06 SATL 030
T000 176N 1147E 045 R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 188N 1132E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 197N 1119E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 207N 1109E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 217N 1102E 045 R034 060 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 235N 1098E 025
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 114.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 114.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 18.8N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 19.7N 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 20.7N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 21.7N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.5N 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 114.3E.
30JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0422062518 137N1304E 15
0422062600 138N1289E 15
0422062606 141N1271E 15
0422062612 149N1252E 15
0422062618 151N1243E 15
0422062700 153N1232E 15
0422062706 157N1211E 10
0422062712 162N1198E 15
0422062718 165N1184E 15
0422062800 167N1170E 15
0422062806 160N1160E 15
0422062812 157N1163E 20
0422062818 154N1166E 20
0422062900 154N1170E 20
0422062906 160N1162E 20
0422062912 155N1155E 20
0422062918 151N1148E 30
0422063000 156N1152E 35
0422063006 160N1155E 35
0422063012 172N1151E 40
0422063018 176N1147E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 114.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 114.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 18.8N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 19.7N 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 20.7N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 21.7N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.5N 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 114.3E.
30JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 2203 CHABA (2203)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CHABA IS LOCATED AT 17.5N, 114.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 17.5N 114.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 011800UTC 19.3N 111.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 021800UTC 21.9N 110.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 031800UTC 23.6N 109.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 041800UTC 25.4N 110.2E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2203 CHABA (2203) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 17.5N 114.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 011800UTC 19.3N 111.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 021800UTC 21.9N 110.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 031800UTC 23.6N 109.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 301800
WARNING 301800.
WARNING VALID 011800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2203 CHABA (2203) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
985 HPA
AT 17.5N 114.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 19.3N 111.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 21.9N 110.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 23.6N 109.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 25.4N 110.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 301645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 301500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CHABA (2203) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 986 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ONE
FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011500 UTC
ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC
TWO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (23.1 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (109.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 301500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301500UTC 17.1N 114.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 011500UTC 19.1N 112.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 021200UTC 21.2N 110.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 031200UTC 23.1N 109.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 041200UTC 24.2N 109.6E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 301500
WARNING 301500.
WARNING VALID 011500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2203 CHABA (2203) 990 HPA
AT 17.1N 114.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 19.1N 112.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 301500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301500UTC 17.1N 114.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 011500UTC 19.1N 112.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 021200UTC 21.2N 110.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 031200UTC 23.1N 109.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 301345 CCA

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 301200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CHABA (2203) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 986 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N) ONE ONE
FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011200 UTC
ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (110.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC
TWO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (22.9 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHABA IS LOCATED AT 17N, 115.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 301400
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 220630123215
2022063012 04W CHABA 004 01 350 10 SATL SYNP 020
T000 170N 1153E 040 R034 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 183N 1143E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 193N 1129E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 202N 1118E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 212N 1109E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 231N 1102E 035
T096 247N 1106E 025
T120 254N 1109E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 115.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 115.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.3N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.3N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.2N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.2N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.1N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 24.7N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 25.4N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 115.0E.
30JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 301200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z
AND 011500Z.//
0422062518 137N1304E 15
0422062600 138N1289E 15
0422062606 141N1271E 15
0422062612 149N1252E 15
0422062618 151N1243E 15
0422062700 153N1232E 15
0422062706 157N1211E 10
0422062712 162N1198E 15
0422062718 165N1184E 15
0422062800 167N1170E 15
0422062806 160N1160E 15
0422062812 157N1163E 20
0422062818 154N1166E 20
0422062900 154N1170E 20
0422062906 160N1162E 20
0422062912 155N1155E 20
0422062918 151N1148E 30
0422063000 156N1152E 35
0422063006 160N1155E 35
0422063012 170N1153E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 301400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 115.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 115.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.3N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.3N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.2N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.2N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.1N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 24.7N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 25.4N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 115.0E.
30JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 301200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z
AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 301345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 301200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CHABA (2203) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 986 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N) ONE ONE
FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011200 UTC
ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (110.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC
TWO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (22.9 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 301500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 220630123215
2022063012 04W CHABA 004 01 350 10 SATL SYNP 020
T000 170N 1153E 040 R034 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 183N 1143E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 193N 1129E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 202N 1118E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 212N 1109E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 231N 1102E 035
T096 247N 1106E 025
T120 254N 1109E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 115.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 115.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.3N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.3N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.2N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.2N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.1N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 24.7N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 25.4N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 115.0E.
30JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 301200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z
AND 011500Z.//
0422062518 137N1304E 15
0422062600 138N1289E 15
0422062606 141N1271E 15
0422062612 149N1252E 15
0422062618 151N1243E 15
0422062700 153N1232E 15
0422062706 157N1211E 10
0422062712 162N1198E 15
0422062718 165N1184E 15
0422062800 167N1170E 15
0422062806 160N1160E 15
0422062812 157N1163E 20
0422062818 154N1166E 20
0422062900 154N1170E 20
0422062906 160N1162E 20
0422062912 155N1155E 20
0422062918 151N1148E 30
0422063000 156N1152E 35
0422063006 160N1155E 35
0422063012 170N1153E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 115.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 115.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.3N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.3N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.2N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.2N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.1N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 24.7N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 25.4N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 115.0E.
30JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 301200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z
AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 17.0N 115.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 19.4N 112.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 021200UTC 21.2N 110.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 031200UTC 23.1N 109.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 041200UTC 24.2N 109.6E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 17.0N 115.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 19.4N 112.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 021200UTC 21.2N 110.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 031200UTC 23.1N 109.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 301200
WARNING 301200.
WARNING VALID 011200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2203 CHABA (2203) 990 HPA
AT 17.0N 115.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 19.4N 112.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 21.2N 110.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 23.1N 109.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 24.2N 109.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 301045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 300900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CHABA (2203) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 986 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ONE
FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010900 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC
TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (22.7 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 300900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300900UTC 16.4N 115.4E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 010900UTC 19.3N 112.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 020600UTC 20.8N 111.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 030600UTC 22.5N 109.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 040600UTC 23.8N 109.4E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 300900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300900UTC 16.4N 115.4E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 010900UTC 19.3N 112.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 020600UTC 20.8N 111.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 030600UTC 22.5N 109.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 300900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 220630070341
2022063006 04W CHABA 003 01 035 05 SATL 035
T000 160N 1155E 035 R034 000 NE QD 140 SE QD 085 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 174N 1148E 045 R034 120 NE QD 190 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 184N 1137E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 192N 1124E 060 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 200N 1113E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 218N 1101E 045 R034 020 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 236N 1104E 025
T120 246N 1104E 015
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 16.0N 115.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 115.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.4N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 18.4N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 19.2N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 20.0N 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.8N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.6N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 24.6N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 115.3E.
30JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 329 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z,
010300Z AND 010900Z.//
0422062518 137N1304E 15
0422062600 138N1289E 15
0422062606 141N1271E 15
0422062612 149N1252E 15
0422062618 151N1243E 15
0422062700 153N1232E 15
0422062706 157N1211E 10
0422062712 162N1198E 15
0422062718 165N1184E 15
0422062800 167N1170E 15
0422062806 160N1160E 15
0422062812 157N1163E 20
0422062818 154N1166E 20
0422062900 154N1170E 20
0422062906 160N1162E 20
0422062912 155N1155E 20
0422062918 151N1148E 30
0422063000 156N1152E 35
0422063006 160N1155E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 16.0N 115.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 115.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.4N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 18.4N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 19.2N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 20.0N 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.8N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.6N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 24.6N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 115.3E.
30JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 329 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z,
010300Z AND 010900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 300745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 300600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CHABA (2203) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE
FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010600 UTC
ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC
TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (22.5 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (109.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC
TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (23.9 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (109.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHABA IS LOCATED AT 16.1N, 115E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE
40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE
CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD DUE
TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 16.1N 115.0E POOR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 19.1N 113.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 020600UTC 20.8N 111.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 030600UTC 22.5N 109.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 040600UTC 23.8N 109.4E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 16.1N 115.0E POOR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 19.1N 113.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 020600UTC 20.8N 111.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 030600UTC 22.5N 109.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 300600
WARNING 300600.
WARNING VALID 010600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2203 CHABA (2203) 990 HPA
AT 16.1N 115.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 19.1N 113.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 20.8N 111.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 22.5N 109.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 23.8N 109.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 300300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300300UTC 15.9N 114.3E POOR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 010300UTC 19.0N 113.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 020000UTC 20.3N 111.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 030000UTC 22.0N 110.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 040000UTC 23.5N 109.5E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 300300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300300UTC 15.9N 114.3E POOR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 010300UTC 19.0N 113.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 020000UTC 20.3N 111.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 030000UTC 22.0N 110.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 300300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 220630014001
2022063000 04W FOUR 002 01 050 05 SATL 030
T000 154N 1152E 035 R034 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 168N 1147E 045 R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 180N 1136E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 188N 1124E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 196N 1110E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 213N 1094E 035 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 230N 1092E 025
T120 241N 1093E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 15.4N 115.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 115.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.8N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.0N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.8N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 19.6N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.3N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 23.0N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 24.1N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 115.1E.
30JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 300000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z
AND 010300Z.//
0422062518 137N1304E 15
0422062600 138N1289E 15
0422062606 141N1271E 15
0422062612 149N1252E 15
0422062618 151N1243E 15
0422062700 153N1232E 15
0422062706 157N1211E 10
0422062712 162N1198E 15
0422062718 165N1184E 15
0422062800 167N1170E 15
0422062806 160N1160E 15
0422062812 157N1163E 20
0422062818 154N1166E 20
0422062900 154N1170E 20
0422062906 160N1162E 20
0422062912 155N1155E 20
0422062918 151N1148E 30
0422063000 154N1152E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 15.4N 115.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 115.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.8N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.0N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.8N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 19.6N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.3N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 23.0N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 24.1N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 115.1E.
30JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 010300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 15.8N, 114.9E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(CHABA) STATUS. TS CHABA IS LOCATED AT 15.7N, 114.1E. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM
THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE
NOW DISTINCT. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE
TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2203 CHABA (2203) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 15.7N 114.1E POOR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 18.8N 114.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 020000UTC 20.3N 111.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 030000UTC 22.0N 110.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 040000UTC 23.5N 109.5E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2203 CHABA (2203) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 15.7N 114.1E POOR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 18.8N 114.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 020000UTC 20.3N 111.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 030000UTC 22.0N 110.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 300000
WARNING 300000.
WARNING VALID 010000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2203 CHABA (2203) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
994 HPA
AT 15.7N 114.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 18.8N 114.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 20.3N 111.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 22.0N 110.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 23.5N 109.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 292100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 220629192852
2022062918 04W FOUR 001 01 240 08 SATL 030
T000 151N 1148E 030
T012 162N 1146E 035 R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 174N 1139E 035 R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 183N 1128E 040 R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 190N 1116E 050 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T072 208N 1098E 040 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 223N 1094E 025
T120 236N 1096E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 114.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 114.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.2N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.4N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 18.3N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 19.0N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.8N 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.3N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 23.6N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 114.7E.
29JUN22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
361 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.
//
0422062518 137N1304E 15
0422062600 138N1289E 15
0422062606 141N1271E 15
0422062612 149N1252E 15
0422062618 151N1243E 15
0422062700 153N1232E 15
0422062706 157N1211E 10
0422062712 162N1198E 15
0422062718 165N1184E 15
0422062800 167N1170E 15
0422062806 160N1160E 15
0422062812 157N1163E 20
0422062818 154N1166E 20
0422062900 154N1170E 20
0422062906 160N1162E 20
0422062912 155N1155E 20
0422062918 151N1148E 30

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/ TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 001 //
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290300ZJUN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 114.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 114.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.2N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.4N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 18.3N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 19.0N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.8N 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.3N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 23.6N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 114.7E.
29JUN22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
361 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 290300).//
NNNN

>