Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NICOLE-22
in United States, Bahamas
08 Nov 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NICOLE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Canada, United States, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Bahamas
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (08 Nov 17:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (The Bahamas)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 76 km/h 0.6 m 106 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 108 km/h 0.9 m 358 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

108 km/h

Up to 4.2 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Nov 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormCanada, United States, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Bahamas4,207,631
+
Canada78,923 
United States4,044,783 
Saint Pierre and Miquelon6,288 
Bahamas77,636 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Nov 2022 06:00 68 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 2 07 Nov 2022 12:00 65 -
- - - - - Canada, United States
GREEN 3 07 Nov 2022 18:00 72 -
- - - - - Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon
GREEN 4 08 Nov 2022 00:00 72 -
- - - - - Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon
GREEN 5 08 Nov 2022 06:00 72 -
- - - - - Canada
GREEN 6 08 Nov 2022 12:00 104 -
- - - - - Canada, United States, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Bahamas
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Nov 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmPanama14,448 
100-250 mmUnited States, Bahamas, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama, Venezuela, Guyana986,341
+
United States256,735 
Bahamas24,688 
Colombia127,872 
Venezuela2,768 
Costa Rica99,474 
Panama474,763 
Guyana39 
50-100 mmCanada, United States, Bahamas, Honduras, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana26,478,430
+
Canada16,669 
United States13,590,138 
Bahamas58,232 
Honduras300 
Colombia10,002,584 
Venezuela1,729,896 
Trinidad and Tobago334,489 
Costa Rica340,950 
Panama224,933 
Guyana180,235 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Nov 2022 06:00 49 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 07 Nov 2022 12:00 126 -
- - - - - Panama
Blue 3 07 Nov 2022 18:00 67 -
- - - - - Panama
Blue 4 08 Nov 2022 00:00 114 -
- - - - - Panama
Blue 5 08 Nov 2022 06:00 113 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 08 Nov 2022 12:00 321 1 million
- - - Canada, United States, Bahamas, Honduras, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Nov 2022 12:00 UTC