Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NICOLE-22
in United States, Bahamas
10 Nov 2022 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NICOLE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Canada, United States, Bahamas
Exposed population 3 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 122 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.7 m (11 Nov 04:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (The Bahamas)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 122 km/h 1.7 m 115 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 122 km/h 1.8 m 340 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

122 km/h

Up to 3 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Nov 2022 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1United States2,950 
Tropical StormCanada, United States, Bahamas13,805,378
+
Canada212,282 
United States13,515,855 
Bahamas77,240 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Nov 2022 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 07 Nov 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 07 Nov 2022 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 08 Nov 2022 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 08 Nov 2022 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 08 Nov 2022 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Bahamas
GREEN 7 08 Nov 2022 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Bahamas
GREEN 8 09 Nov 2022 00:00 104 -
- - - - - Bahamas
GREEN 9 09 Nov 2022 06:00 112 -
- - - - - Bahamas
GREEN 10 09 Nov 2022 12:00 104 -
- - - - - United States, Bahamas
GREEN 11 09 Nov 2022 18:00 112 -
- - - - - United States, Bahamas
GREEN 12 10 Nov 2022 00:00 122 3 thousand
- - - - Canada, United States, Bahamas
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Nov 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmUnited States682 
100-250 mmUnited States2,214,944 
50-100 mmUnited States, Bahamas20,084,403
+
United States20,084,395 
Bahamas08 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Nov 2022 06:00 192 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 07 Nov 2022 12:00 228 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 07 Nov 2022 18:00 102 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 08 Nov 2022 00:00 80 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 08 Nov 2022 06:00 96 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 08 Nov 2022 12:00 126 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 08 Nov 2022 18:00 115 -
- - - - - Bahamas
Blue 8 09 Nov 2022 00:00 110 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 09 Nov 2022 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 09 Nov 2022 12:00 124 -
- - - - - Bahamas
Blue 11 09 Nov 2022 18:00 94 -
- - - - - Bahamas
Blue 12 10 Nov 2022 00:00 282 2.2 million
- - - United States, Bahamas




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.7 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Nov 2022 00:00 UTC