Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for RICK-21
in Mexico
26 Oct 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RICK-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico, United States
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 162 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (27 Oct 18:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 162 km/h 0.7 m 471 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 162 km/h 0.7 m 471 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico, United States145,348
+
Mexico145,099 
United States249 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 22 Oct 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 22 Oct 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 23 Oct 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 23 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 23 Oct 2021 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 23 Oct 2021 18:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 24 Oct 2021 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 24 Oct 2021 06:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 24 Oct 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 25 Oct 2021 00:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 25 Oct 2021 06:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 25 Oct 2021 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 25 Oct 2021 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 26 Oct 2021 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 26 Oct 2021 06:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 26 Oct 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 26 Oct 2021 18:00 68 -
- - - - - Mexico, United States
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall

471 mm

Up to 710 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico177,117 
100-250 mmMexico529,224 
50-100 mmMexico6,997,354 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 22 Oct 2021 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 22 Oct 2021 18:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 23 Oct 2021 00:00 93 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 23 Oct 2021 06:00 166 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 23 Oct 2021 12:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 23 Oct 2021 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 24 Oct 2021 00:00 186 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 24 Oct 2021 06:00 116 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 24 Oct 2021 12:00 141 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 25 Oct 2021 00:00 249 10 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 11 25 Oct 2021 06:00 215 180 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 25 Oct 2021 12:00 81 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 13 25 Oct 2021 18:00 59 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 14 26 Oct 2021 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 26 Oct 2021 06:00 63 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 26 Oct 2021 12:00 218 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 26 Oct 2021 18:00 324 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.7 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mUnited States67 
0.25 - 0.5 mMexico, United States8,684
+
Mexico3,674 
United States5,009 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 26 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC