Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for RICK-21
in Mexico
25 Oct 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RICK-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 50 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (25 Oct 18:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 50 km/h 0.2 m 59 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 162 km/h 0.7 m 471 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

162 km/h

Up to 170 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico165,595 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 22 Oct 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 22 Oct 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 23 Oct 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 23 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 23 Oct 2021 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 23 Oct 2021 18:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 24 Oct 2021 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 24 Oct 2021 06:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 24 Oct 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 25 Oct 2021 00:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 25 Oct 2021 06:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 25 Oct 2021 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 25 Oct 2021 18:00 68 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmMexico9,305 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 22 Oct 2021 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 22 Oct 2021 18:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 23 Oct 2021 00:00 93 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 23 Oct 2021 06:00 166 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 23 Oct 2021 12:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 23 Oct 2021 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 24 Oct 2021 00:00 186 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 24 Oct 2021 06:00 116 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 24 Oct 2021 12:00 141 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 25 Oct 2021 00:00 249 10 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 11 25 Oct 2021 06:00 215 180 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 25 Oct 2021 12:00 81 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 13 25 Oct 2021 18:00 407 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Cuamecate, Mexico. This height is estimated for 25 Oct 2021 18:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 25 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
25 Oct 2021 18:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 18:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 18:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 20:15 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 19:45 La Choya Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 21:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 21:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 21:30 Novillero Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 21:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 18:45 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 18:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 18:00 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 18:30 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.2
26 Oct 2021 00:00 Arista Mexico  0.2
26 Oct 2021 00:00 Buenavista Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 18:45 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 21:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 18:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 20:15 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 20:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 18:45 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 22:15 Dimas Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 21:45 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 21:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 19:00 Santiago Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 19:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 19:00 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 22:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 21:15 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 21:15 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 20:15 Empalme Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 18:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 23:00 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 19:45 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 19:45 Monteon Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 21:30 Huajapan Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 21:30 El Roble Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 18:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 23:15 Solo Dios Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 18:45 Altata Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 18:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 22:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 22:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 19:15 Chula Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 19:15 Las Pinas Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 19:15 Playa Azul Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 20:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 20:30 Mulege Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 18:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 20:00 San Jose Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 20:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 20:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 22:15 La Boca Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 21:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 23:45 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 22:00 Florida Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 22:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 23:00 Pesqueria Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 23:00 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 22:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 22:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 21:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 22:00 San Blas Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 22:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
26 Oct 2021 00:00 San Dionisio del Mar Mexico  0.1
26 Oct 2021 00:00 La Majada Mexico  0.1