Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LESTER-22
in Mexico
17 Sep 2022 21 UTC
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  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone LESTER-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 74 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (17 Sep 09:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    17 Sep 2022 15:00 - 17 Sep 2022 21:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 46 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 74 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      46 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 580000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 15 Sep 2022 21:00 93 1.7 million No people Mexico
        Green 2 16 Sep 2022 03:00 93 2 million No people Mexico
        Green 3 16 Sep 2022 09:00 93 2.3 million No people Mexico
        Green 4 16 Sep 2022 15:00 93 1.9 million No people Mexico
        Green 5 16 Sep 2022 21:00 83 1.6 million No people Mexico
        Green 6 17 Sep 2022 03:00 83 3.6 million No people Mexico
        Green 7 17 Sep 2022 09:00 83 2.5 million No people Mexico
        Green 8 17 Sep 2022 15:00 65 2 million No people Mexico
        Green 9 17 Sep 2022 21:00 46 580 thousand No people Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 15 Sep 2022 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.7, -95.4
          GREEN
          		 2 16 Sep 2022 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, -95.8
          GREEN
          		 3 16 Sep 2022 09:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.2, -95.9
          GREEN
          		 4 16 Sep 2022 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.7, -96.5
          GREEN
          		 5 16 Sep 2022 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 9400 people 14.3, -97.3
          GREEN
          		 6 17 Sep 2022 03:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 770000 people 14.8, -97.8
          GREEN
          		 7 17 Sep 2022 09:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 1.7 million people 15.4, -98.6
          GREEN
          		 8 17 Sep 2022 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 1.9 million people 16, -99
          GREEN
          		 9 17 Sep 2022 21:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 16.5, -98.5 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Guerrero Mexico
          Oaxaca Mexico

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Jamiltepec Oaxaca Mexico City 9800 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Ta lo de Soto 149 0
          Pinotepa Nacional PNO unknown 0

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          El Guineo Nexpa 1985
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.4 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Huajapan, Mexico. This height is estimated for 17 Sep 2022 09:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (56 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 17 Sep 2022 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          17 Sep 2022 09:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.4
          17 Sep 2022 09:00 El Roble Mexico  0.4
          17 Sep 2022 12:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.3
          17 Sep 2022 09:00 Lagarto Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 09:00 Santa Maria Xandani Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 09:00 Union Hidalgo Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 09:00 Chicapa Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 10:00 Pesqueria Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 10:00 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 10:00 Arista Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 10:00 Solo Dios Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 12:00 La Majada Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 10:00 Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 10:00 Garrapateras Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 10:00 Boqueron Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 10:00 Costa Rica Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 19:00 Mauricio Gutierrez Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 11:00 Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 11:00 San Dionisio del Mar Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 10:00 Buenavista Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 11:00 Salina Cruz Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 17:00 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 10:00 La Verde Guatemala  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 10:00 El Tulate Guatemala  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 01:00 La Union El Salvador  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 17:00 Copala Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 01:00 El Volcancillo Honduras  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 01:00 Murucagua Honduras  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 04:00 La Concepion Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 10:00 Puerto de San Benito Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 17:00 Marquelia Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 10:00 Champerico Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 04:00 Huitzitzil Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 04:00 Tecojate Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 04:00 Barra de San Jose Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 10:00 Tahuesco Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 03:00 Gualora Honduras  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 04:00 Ocos Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 04:00 El Chico Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 15:00 La Tuza Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 14:00 Pie Cerro Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 12:00 Port O'Connor United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 12:00 Palacios United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 10:00 Nueva Venecia Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 02:00 San Jose Rama Blanca Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 04:00 Sipacate Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 03:00 Conchaguita El Salvador  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 22:00 El Marques Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 10:00 Barra Madre Vieja Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 11:00 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 11:00 Spanish Village United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 10:00 La Herradura El Salvador  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 10:00 El Zapote El Salvador  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 03:00 Guerrero El Salvador  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 10:00 Acapan Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 13:00 Ayutla Mexico  0.1