Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ORLENE-22
in Mexico
02 Oct 2022 15 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone ORLENE-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population 110 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 213 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (03 Oct 22:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    03 Oct 2022 00:00 - 03 Oct 2022 12:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 204 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 213 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      204 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 100000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 29 Sep 2022 03:00 139 930 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 2 29 Sep 2022 09:00 139 1.8 million No people Mexico
        Orange 3 29 Sep 2022 15:00 120 1.8 million 810 thousand Mexico
        Green 4 29 Sep 2022 21:00 157 2 million 90 thousand Mexico
        Green 5 30 Sep 2022 03:00 157 2.1 million 40 thousand Mexico
        Green 6 30 Sep 2022 09:00 167 710 thousand 3 thousand Mexico
        Green 7 30 Sep 2022 15:00 157 920 thousand 4 thousand Mexico
        Orange 8 30 Sep 2022 21:00 130 1 million 250 thousand Mexico
        Orange 9 01 Oct 2022 03:00 120 1.8 million 110 thousand Mexico
        Green 10 01 Oct 2022 09:00 148 1.6 million 20 thousand Mexico
        Orange 11 01 Oct 2022 15:00 120 1.1 million 110 thousand Mexico
        Green 12 01 Oct 2022 21:00 157 1 million 90 thousand Mexico
        Green 13 02 Oct 2022 00:00 194 1 million 90 thousand Mexico
        Green 14 02 Oct 2022 03:00 204 1.1 million 60 thousand Mexico
        Orange 15 02 Oct 2022 09:00 157 2 million 60 thousand Mexico
        Green 16 02 Oct 2022 15:00 204 1 million 100 thousand Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 29 Sep 2022 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.4, -103.7
          GREEN
          		 2 29 Sep 2022 09:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.8, -104.9
          GREEN
          		 3 29 Sep 2022 15:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 15.1, -105.9
          GREEN
          		 4 29 Sep 2022 21:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 15.4, -106.5
          GREEN
          		 5 30 Sep 2022 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.6, -106.7
          GREEN
          		 6 30 Sep 2022 09:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15.9, -106.9
          GREEN
          		 7 30 Sep 2022 15:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 16.1, -107.1
          GREEN
          		 8 30 Sep 2022 21:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 16.6, -107.1
          GREEN
          		 9 01 Oct 2022 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 17, -107.2
          GREEN
          		 10 01 Oct 2022 09:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 17.2, -107
          GREEN
          		 11 01 Oct 2022 15:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 17.6, -107
          GREEN
          		 12 01 Oct 2022 21:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 17.9, -107.1
          GREEN
          		 13 02 Oct 2022 00:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 18.2, -107.1
          GREEN
          		 14 02 Oct 2022 03:00 Category 2 176 no people no people 18.4, -106.9
          GREEN
          		 15 02 Oct 2022 09:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 19, -106.8
          GREEN
          		 16 02 Oct 2022 15:00 Category 3 204 no people <1000 people 19.6, -106.9
          GREEN
          		 16 03 Oct 2022 00:00 Category 3 185 3300 people 47000 people 20.6, -106.7
          GREEN
          		 16 03 Oct 2022 12:00 Category 2 157 16000 people 920000 people 21.7, -106.4 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 16 04 Oct 2022 00:00 Category 1 130 98000 people 900000 people 22.6, -106 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 16 04 Oct 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 730000 people 23.3, -105.7 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 16 05 Oct 2022 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 23.9, -105.4 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
          Mexico 100000 people

          Provinces

          Region Province Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
          Nayarit Mexico 3300 people
          Sinaloa Mexico 95000 people
          Durango Mexico 1700 people

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Escuinapa Sinaloa Mexico City 28000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Isla Maria Madre 5 0
          Rancho los Cabras 3 0
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.6 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Cuamecate, Mexico. This height is estimated for 03 Oct 2022 22:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (12 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 15 of 02 Oct 2022 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          03 Oct 2022 22:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.6
          04 Oct 2022 02:00 Novillero Mexico  0.5
          04 Oct 2022 01:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.5
          03 Oct 2022 20:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.5
          03 Oct 2022 21:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.5
          04 Oct 2022 03:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.5
          03 Oct 2022 21:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.4
          04 Oct 2022 05:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.3
          03 Oct 2022 17:00 San Blas Mexico  0.2
          04 Oct 2022 03:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
          03 Oct 2022 18:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
          04 Oct 2022 09:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1