Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LESTER-22
in Mexico
17 Sep 2022 03 UTC
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  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone LESTER-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 74 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (17 Sep 11:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    17 Sep 2022 12:00 - 18 Sep 2022 00:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 83 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 74 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      83 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 3.6 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 15 Sep 2022 21:00 93 1.7 million No people Mexico
        Green 2 16 Sep 2022 03:00 93 2 million No people Mexico
        Green 3 16 Sep 2022 09:00 93 2.3 million No people Mexico
        Green 4 16 Sep 2022 15:00 93 1.9 million No people Mexico
        Green 5 16 Sep 2022 21:00 83 1.6 million No people Mexico
        Green 6 17 Sep 2022 03:00 83 3.6 million No people Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 15 Sep 2022 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.7, -95.4
          GREEN
          		 2 16 Sep 2022 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, -95.8
          GREEN
          		 3 16 Sep 2022 09:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.2, -95.9
          GREEN
          		 4 16 Sep 2022 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.7, -96.5
          GREEN
          		 5 16 Sep 2022 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 9400 people 14.3, -97.3
          GREEN
          		 6 17 Sep 2022 03:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 770000 people 14.8, -97.8
          GREEN
          		 6 17 Sep 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 2.3 million people 15.9, -99.1
          GREEN
          		 6 18 Sep 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.7 million people 17.4, -100.6 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 6 18 Sep 2022 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 19.1, -102.2 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Oaxaca Mexico
          Guerrero Mexico
          Michoacan Mexico
          Jalisco Mexico

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Jamiltepec Oaxaca Mexico City 9800 people
          Ayutla Guerrero Mexico City 9900 people
          San Marcos Guerrero Mexico City 12000 people
          Manzintla Guerrero Mexico City -
          Acapulco Guerrero Mexico Major city 640000 people
          Tixtla Guerrero Mexico City 21000 people
          Chilpancingo Guerrero Mexico Major city 160000 people
          Atoyac Guerrero Mexico City 20000 people
          Tecpan Guerrero Mexico City 14000 people
          Petatlán Guerrero Mexico City 20000 people
          Coyuca de Catalán Guerrero Mexico City -
          Huetamo Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 22000 people
          Ario de Rosales Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City -
          Apatzingan Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 94000 people
          Uruapan Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 240000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Pinotepa Nacional PNO unknown 0
          Ta lo de Soto 149 0
          Alvarez International ACA 5 Civ. Paved Yes 10800
          Pie de la Cuesta 6 0
          Chilpancingo 1280 Civ. Paved No 4400
          Santa Barbara 299 0
          Ixtapa Zihuatanejo International ZIH 6 Civ. Paved Yes 8200
          Huetamo 300 0
          El Infiernillo 511 0
          Uruapan UPN 1593 Civ. Paved Yes 7800
          Pablo L Sidar AZG 315 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Puerto Marques Mexico
          Acapulco MXACA Mexico

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          El Guineo Nexpa 1985
          Carlos Ramirez Ulloa Balsas 1986
          Andres Figueroa Ajuchitlan 1983
          Inhernillo El Infiernillo Balsas 1963
          Zicuiran Zicuiran 1957
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.4 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Huajapan, Mexico. This height is estimated for 17 Sep 2022 11:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (106 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 6 of 17 Sep 2022 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          17 Sep 2022 11:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.4
          17 Sep 2022 11:00 El Roble Mexico  0.4
          17 Sep 2022 12:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.3
          17 Sep 2022 16:00 La Majada Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 17:00 San Dionisio del Mar Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 12:00 Pesqueria Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 16:00 Union Hidalgo Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 16:00 Chicapa Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 07:00 Solo Dios Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 21:00 El Papayo Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 12:00 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 08:00 Arista Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 04:00 Boqueron Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 19:00 Acapulco Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 12:00 Garrapateras Mexico  0.2
          18 Sep 2022 06:00 Costa Rica Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 07:00 Buenavista Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 19:00 El Marques Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 12:00 Lagarto Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 12:00 Santa Maria Xandani Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 03:00 La Verde Guatemala  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 03:00 El Tulate Guatemala  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 07:00 Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 12:00 Salina Cruz Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 04:00 Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 02:00 Tecojate Guatemala  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 01:00 La Union El Salvador  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 03:00 Puerto de San Benito Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 03:00 Champerico Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 01:00 El Volcancillo Honduras  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 04:00 Murucagua Honduras  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 04:00 La Concepion Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 16:00 Mauricio Gutierrez Mexico  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 00:00 Port O'Connor United States  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 00:00 Palacios United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 03:00 Tahuesco Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 07:00 Gualora Honduras  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 02:00 Barra Madre Vieja Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 04:00 Barra de San Jose Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 16:00 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Nadeau United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Texas City Junction United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Bayou Vista United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Texas City United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Anderson Ways United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Virginia Point United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Port Bolivar United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Fort Travis United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Flake United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Elmgrove United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Crystal Beach United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Bolivar Peninsula United States  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 01:00 Spanish Village United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 22:00 Los Ebanos Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 02:00 Nueva Venecia Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 02:00 San Jose Rama Blanca Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 03:00 Sipacate Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 15:00 Copala Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Bay Harbor United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Sea Isle United States  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 01:00 Galveston United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 22:00 El Porvenir Mexico  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 00:00 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 00:00 Port Ingleside United States  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 00:00 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 00:00 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 00:00 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 00:00 Aransas Pass United States  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 00:00 Estes United States  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 00:00 Shell Ridge United States  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 00:00 Flour Bluff United States  0.1
          16 Sep 2022 21:00 Huitzitzil Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 01:00 La Herradura El Salvador  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 01:00 El Zapote El Salvador  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 04:00 Conchaguita El Salvador  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 03:00 Ocos Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 03:00 El Chico Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 11:00 Pie Cerro Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 14:00 Marquelia Mexico  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 00:00 Red Fish Cove United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Jamaica Beach United States  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 00:00 Patton United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 22:00 Caplen United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 22:00 Gilchrist United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Surfside United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Mims United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Surfside Beach United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Hoskins United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Port Morris United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Hoskins United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Bryan Beach United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Valasco Heights United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Freeport United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 Quintana United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 19:00 San Jose de los Leones Mexico  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 02:00 Mustang Beach United States  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 02:00 Port Aransas United States  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 02:00 Rockport United States  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 02:00 Copano Village United States  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 02:00 Fulton United States  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 23:00 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
          16 Sep 2022 23:00 Hacienda La Chepona El Salvador  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 03:00 Guerrero El Salvador  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 13:00 Dos Hermanas Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 13:00 Calderas Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 03:00 Acapan Guatemala  0.1