Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LESTER-22
in Mexico
16 Sep 2022 09 UTC
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  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone LESTER-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 74 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (16 Sep 22:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    17 Sep 2022 18:00 - 18 Sep 2022 06:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 93 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 74 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      93 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 2.3 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 15 Sep 2022 21:00 93 1.7 million No people Mexico
        Green 2 16 Sep 2022 03:00 93 2 million No people Mexico
        Green 3 16 Sep 2022 09:00 93 2.3 million No people Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 15 Sep 2022 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.7, -95.4
          GREEN
          		 2 16 Sep 2022 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, -95.8
          GREEN
          		 3 16 Sep 2022 09:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.2, -95.9
          GREEN
          		 3 16 Sep 2022 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 13.8, -96.9
          GREEN
          		 3 17 Sep 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.1 million people 15, -98.4
          GREEN
          		 3 17 Sep 2022 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 1.8 million people 16.4, -99.9
          GREEN
          		 3 18 Sep 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 940000 people 18, -101.8 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 3 18 Sep 2022 18:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 19, -103.2 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Guerrero Mexico
          Michoacan Mexico
          Jalisco Mexico
          Colima Mexico

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          San Marcos Guerrero Mexico City 12000 people
          Acapulco Guerrero Mexico Major city 640000 people
          Atoyac Guerrero Mexico City 20000 people
          Tecpan Guerrero Mexico City 14000 people
          Petatlán Guerrero Mexico City 20000 people
          Apatzingan Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 94000 people
          Coalcomán Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 10000 people
          Tecalitlán Jalisco Mexico City 13000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Alvarez International ACA 5 Civ. Paved Yes 10800
          Pie de la Cuesta 6 0
          Ixtapa Zihuatanejo International ZIH 6 Civ. Paved Yes 8200
          Lazaro Cardenas LZC 12 Civ. Paved No 4900
          El Infiernillo 511 0
          Pablo L Sidar AZG 315 0
          Colima CLQ 723 Civ. Paved Yes 7500

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Puerto Marques Mexico
          Acapulco MXACA Mexico
          Lazaro Cardenas MXLZC Mexico

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          El Guineo Nexpa 1985
          Inhernillo El Infiernillo Balsas 1963
          Jose M. Morelos Balsas 1968
          Zicuiran Zicuiran 1957
          Chilatan Tepalcatepec 1986
          Trojes Coahuayana 1994
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.3 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Huajapan, Mexico. This height is estimated for 16 Sep 2022 22:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (49 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 3 of 16 Sep 2022 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          16 Sep 2022 22:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.3
          16 Sep 2022 23:00 El Roble Mexico  0.3
          16 Sep 2022 23:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.2
          18 Sep 2022 02:00 Calvario Mexico  0.2
          18 Sep 2022 00:00 Nuxco Mexico  0.2
          18 Sep 2022 01:00 Coyuquillas Mexico  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 20:00 Acapulco Mexico  0.2
          16 Sep 2022 21:00 La Concepion Mexico  0.2
          16 Sep 2022 18:00 El Tulate Guatemala  0.2
          16 Sep 2022 18:00 Tecojate Guatemala  0.2
          16 Sep 2022 18:00 La Verde Guatemala  0.2
          16 Sep 2022 23:00 Union Hidalgo Mexico  0.2
          16 Sep 2022 23:00 Chicapa Mexico  0.2
          16 Sep 2022 23:00 La Majada Mexico  0.2
          18 Sep 2022 05:00 Barrio Nuevo Mexico  0.2
          16 Sep 2022 22:00 Solo Dios Mexico  0.2
          16 Sep 2022 18:00 Champerico Guatemala  0.2
          17 Sep 2022 02:00 Lagarto Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 02:00 Santa Maria Xandani Mexico  0.1
          16 Sep 2022 22:00 Boqueron Mexico  0.1
          16 Sep 2022 18:00 Barra Madre Vieja Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 00:00 Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 02:00 Pesqueria Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 02:00 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 01:00 Arista Mexico  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 04:00 Zihuatanejo Mexico  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 06:00 Lagunillas Mexico  0.1
          16 Sep 2022 18:00 Tahuesco Guatemala  0.1
          16 Sep 2022 18:00 San Jose Rama Blanca Guatemala  0.1
          16 Sep 2022 19:00 Puerto de San Benito Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 20:00 El Marques Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 22:00 El Papayo Mexico  0.1
          18 Sep 2022 07:00 Joluta Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 01:00 Buenavista Mexico  0.1
          16 Sep 2022 18:00 Nueva Venecia Guatemala  0.1
          16 Sep 2022 18:00 Huitzitzil Guatemala  0.1
          16 Sep 2022 18:00 Sipacate Guatemala  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 01:00 Salina Cruz Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 01:00 Costa Rica Mexico  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 09:00 San Dionisio del Mar Mexico  0.1
          16 Sep 2022 22:00 Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.1
          16 Sep 2022 18:00 La Herradura El Salvador  0.1
          16 Sep 2022 18:00 El Zapote El Salvador  0.1
          17 Sep 2022 01:00 Garrapateras Mexico  0.1
          16 Sep 2022 22:00 Barra de San Jose Mexico  0.1
          16 Sep 2022 19:00 Ocos Guatemala  0.1
          16 Sep 2022 19:00 El Chico Guatemala  0.1
          16 Sep 2022 18:00 Hacienda La Chepona El Salvador  0.1
          16 Sep 2022 18:00 Corral de Mulas El Salvador  0.1