Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KAY-22 in Mexico from 04 Sep 2022 15:00 UTC to 07 Sep 2022 09:00 UTC

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KAY-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	10 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	167 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (08 Sep 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 06 Sep 2022 15:00 - 06 Sep 2022 21:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	167 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	167 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

TOP

Wind

167 km/h Current Max.

Up to 5800 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	04 Sep 2022 15:00	157	830 thousand	5 thousand	Mexico
2	04 Sep 2022 21:00	157	870 thousand	6 thousand	Mexico
3	05 Sep 2022 03:00	157	950 thousand	8 thousand	Mexico
4	05 Sep 2022 09:00	167	940 thousand	6 thousand	Mexico
5	05 Sep 2022 15:00	167	850 thousand	No people	Mexico
6	05 Sep 2022 21:00	176	160 thousand	No people	Mexico
7	06 Sep 2022 03:00	176	410 thousand	No people	Mexico
8	06 Sep 2022 09:00	185	820 thousand	No people	Mexico
9	06 Sep 2022 15:00	185	880 thousand	No people	Mexico
10	06 Sep 2022 21:00	176	870 thousand	Few people	Mexico
11	07 Sep 2022 03:00	176	1.6 million	No people	Mexico
12	07 Sep 2022 09:00	167	1.5 million	6 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	04 Sep 2022 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14, -101.4
2	04 Sep 2022 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.8, -102.5
3	05 Sep 2022 03:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.6, -103.8
4	05 Sep 2022 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.7, -105.3
5	05 Sep 2022 15:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.8, -106.4
6	05 Sep 2022 21:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	15.6, -107.3
7	06 Sep 2022 03:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	16, -108.1
8	06 Sep 2022 09:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	17, -108.9
9	06 Sep 2022 15:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	18, -110
10	06 Sep 2022 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	18.8, -111	Mexico
11	07 Sep 2022 03:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	19.5, -111.7
12	07 Sep 2022 09:00	Category 2	157	no people	380000 people	20.2, -112
12	07 Sep 2022 18:00	Category 2	167	no people	760000 people	21.6, -112.8
12	08 Sep 2022 06:00	Category 2	157	no people	670000 people	23.7, -113.6
12	08 Sep 2022 18:00	Category 1	148	5800 people	280000 people	26, -114.5
12	09 Sep 2022 06:00	Category 1	130	2600 people	670000 people	27.9, -115.6
12	09 Sep 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	660000 people	29.7, -116.8
12	10 Sep 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	7800 people	30.8, -118.2
12	11 Sep 2022 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	31.2, -120.6
12	12 Sep 2022 06:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	30.1, -121.6

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Baja California Sur	Mexico
Baja California	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Isla Natividad	Baja California Sur	Mexico	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Isla Socorro		100				0
Bahia Tortugas		40				0
Isla Cedros		30				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Socorro Island		Mexico
Puerto San Bartolome		Mexico
Morro Redondo	MXMRE	Mexico

TOP

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

TOP

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Puerto Magdalena, Mexico. This height is estimated for 08 Sep 2022 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (73 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 1 of 04 Sep 2022 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.5
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.4
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.4
	08 Sep 2022 14:00	Quinones	Mexico	0.4
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.3
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.3
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.3
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.3
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.3
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.3
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	El Tomale	Mexico	0.3
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	Cunano	Mexico	0.2
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	08 Sep 2022 14:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 14:00	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 14:00	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 14:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 14:00	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Mulege	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 10:00	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 08:00	Datilito	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 14:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 08:00	Pozo de Cota	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 05:00	San Lucas	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 07:00	El Tule	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 05:00	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 08:00	La Tinaja	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 09:00	La Paz	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 11:00	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 11:00	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 11:00	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 14:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 14:00	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	El Barril	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 08:00	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 08:00	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 10:00	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Liliba	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Tastiota	Mexico	0.1