Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ESTELLE-22
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ESTELLE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 102 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5
Overall 139 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

102 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 15 Jul 2022 15:00 157 No people No people
Green 2 15 Jul 2022 21:00 157 No people No people Mexico
Green 3 16 Jul 2022 03:00 157 No people No people Mexico
Green 4 16 Jul 2022 09:00 167 No people No people Mexico
Green 5 16 Jul 2022 15:00 185 No people No people Mexico
Green 6 16 Jul 2022 21:00 185 No people No people
Green 7 17 Jul 2022 03:00 185 No people No people
Green 8 17 Jul 2022 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 9 17 Jul 2022 15:00 185 No people No people Mexico
Green 10 17 Jul 2022 21:00 176 No people No people Mexico
Green 11 18 Jul 2022 03:00 157 No people No people Mexico
Green 12 18 Jul 2022 09:00 139 No people No people Mexico
Green 13 18 Jul 2022 15:00 139 No people No people Mexico
Green 14 18 Jul 2022 21:00 130 No people No people Mexico
Green 15 19 Jul 2022 03:00 120 No people No people Mexico
Green 16 19 Jul 2022 09:00 102 No people No people Mexico
Green 17 19 Jul 2022 15:00 102 No people No people Mexico
Green 18 19 Jul 2022 21:00 102 No people No people Mexico
Green 19 20 Jul 2022 03:00 102 No people No people Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 15 Jul 2022 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12, -100.8
GREEN
2 15 Jul 2022 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13, -100.9
GREEN
3 16 Jul 2022 03:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.2, -102
GREEN
4 16 Jul 2022 09:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 13.6, -103.1
GREEN
5 16 Jul 2022 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14, -103.7
GREEN
6 16 Jul 2022 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.2, -104.4
GREEN
7 17 Jul 2022 03:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 14.7, -105
GREEN
8 17 Jul 2022 09:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 15.1, -105.9
GREEN
9 17 Jul 2022 15:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.7, -107.1
GREEN
10 17 Jul 2022 21:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16.1, -107.9
GREEN
11 18 Jul 2022 03:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 16.8, -108.6
GREEN
12 18 Jul 2022 09:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 17.5, -109.8
GREEN
13 18 Jul 2022 15:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 18, -111.1
GREEN
14 18 Jul 2022 21:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 18.2, -112.5
GREEN
15 19 Jul 2022 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 18.3, -113.6
GREEN
16 19 Jul 2022 09:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 18.6, -114.7
GREEN
17 19 Jul 2022 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 19, -115.5
GREEN
18 19 Jul 2022 21:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 19.5, -116.9
GREEN
19 20 Jul 2022 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 20.2, -118
GREEN
19 20 Jul 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 20.8, -119.8
GREEN
19 21 Jul 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 21.4, -121.8
GREEN
19 21 Jul 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 22, -123.7
GREEN
19 22 Jul 2022 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 22.5, -125.2
GREEN
19 22 Jul 2022 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 22.8, -126.6
GREEN
19 23 Jul 2022 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 23, -127.5
GREEN
19 24 Jul 2022 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 23, -129.5
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country
Baja California Sur Mexico

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Isla Socorro 100 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Clarion Island Mexico
Roca Partido Island Mexico
Socorro Island Mexico

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 19 of 20 Jul 2022 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)