Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for RICK-21 in Mexico from 22 Oct 2021 15:00 UTC to 25 Oct 2021 15:00 UTC

25 Oct 2021 15 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RICK-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	FL-2021-000166-VNM
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	740 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	167 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (25 Oct 10:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 25 Oct 2021 09:00 - 25 Oct 2021 15:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	130 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	167 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

130 km/h Current Max.

Up to 530000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	22 Oct 2021 15:00	139	2 million	560 thousand	Mexico
2	22 Oct 2021 21:00	120	9 million	2.8 million	Mexico
3	23 Oct 2021 03:00	148	9.3 million	520 thousand	Mexico
4	23 Oct 2021 09:00	185	8.9 million	870 thousand	Mexico
5	23 Oct 2021 15:00	194	11 million	340 thousand	Mexico
6	23 Oct 2021 21:00	157	8.9 million	250 thousand	Mexico
7	24 Oct 2021 03:00	185	9.4 million	250 thousand	Mexico
8	24 Oct 2021 09:00	157	6.3 million	210 thousand	Mexico
9	24 Oct 2021 15:00	167	2.4 million	250 thousand	Mexico
10	24 Oct 2021 21:00	148	1.7 million	200 thousand	Mexico
11	25 Oct 2021 03:00	157	2 million	300 thousand	Mexico
12	25 Oct 2021 09:00	167	2.7 million	310 thousand	Mexico
13	25 Oct 2021 15:00	130	9.2 million	530 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	22 Oct 2021 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	12.7, -100.5
2	22 Oct 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	13.1, -101
3	23 Oct 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	13.4, -101.3
4	23 Oct 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	13.9, -101.4
5	23 Oct 2021 15:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	14.7, -101.5
6	23 Oct 2021 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	15.1, -101.8
7	24 Oct 2021 03:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	15.3, -102
8	24 Oct 2021 09:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	15.6, -101.7
9	24 Oct 2021 15:00	Category 1	139	no people	390000 people	16.1, -101.7
10	24 Oct 2021 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	430000 people	16.3, -101.7
11	25 Oct 2021 03:00	Category 1	148	84000 people	590000 people	16.8, -101.6
12	25 Oct 2021 09:00	Category 2	167	290000 people	1.7 million people	17.7, -101.9
13	25 Oct 2021 15:00	Category 1	130	240000 people	2.9 million people	18.6, -102.2	Mexico
13	26 Oct 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	7 million people	19.7, -103	Mexico
13	26 Oct 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	21.5, -103	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Michoacan	Mexico
Guerrero	Mexico
Jalisco	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Apatzingan	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	94000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
El Infiernillo		511				0
Pablo L Sidar	AZG	315				0
Lazaro Cardenas	LZC	12	Civ.	Paved	No	4900

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Lazaro Cardenas	MXLZC	Mexico

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
Inhernillo	El Infiernillo	Balsas	1963
	Jose M. Morelos	Balsas	1968
	Chilatan	Tepalcatepec	1986

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Melchor Ocampo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 25 Oct 2021 10:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (9 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 24 Oct 2021 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	25 Oct 2021 10:00	Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.5
	25 Oct 2021 11:00	Playa Azul	Mexico	0.3
	25 Oct 2021 06:00	Barrio Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	25 Oct 2021 13:00	Las Pinas	Mexico	0.2
	25 Oct 2021 10:00	Joluta	Mexico	0.2
	25 Oct 2021 05:00	Zihuatanejo	Mexico	0.1
	25 Oct 2021 15:00	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.1
	25 Oct 2021 08:00	Lagunillas	Mexico	0.1
	25 Oct 2021 14:00	Chula	Mexico	0.1