Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for RICK-21
in Mexico
25 Oct 2021 03 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone RICK-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: FL-2021-000166-VNM
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population 740 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 167 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (25 Oct 10:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    25 Oct 2021 12:00 - 26 Oct 2021 00:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 157 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 167 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      157 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 300000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Orange 1 22 Oct 2021 15:00 139 2 million 560 thousand Mexico
        Orange 2 22 Oct 2021 21:00 120 9 million 2.8 million Mexico
        Orange 3 23 Oct 2021 03:00 148 9.3 million 520 thousand Mexico
        Orange 4 23 Oct 2021 09:00 185 8.9 million 870 thousand Mexico
        Red 5 23 Oct 2021 15:00 194 11 million 340 thousand Mexico
        Orange 6 23 Oct 2021 21:00 157 8.9 million 250 thousand Mexico
        Red 7 24 Oct 2021 03:00 185 9.4 million 250 thousand Mexico
        Orange 8 24 Oct 2021 09:00 157 6.3 million 210 thousand Mexico
        Orange 9 24 Oct 2021 15:00 167 2.4 million 250 thousand Mexico
        Orange 10 24 Oct 2021 21:00 148 1.7 million 200 thousand Mexico
        Orange 11 25 Oct 2021 03:00 157 2 million 300 thousand Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 22 Oct 2021 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.7, -100.5
          GREEN
          		 2 22 Oct 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.1, -101
          GREEN
          		 3 23 Oct 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 13.4, -101.3
          GREEN
          		 4 23 Oct 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 13.9, -101.4
          GREEN
          		 5 23 Oct 2021 15:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 14.7, -101.5
          GREEN
          		 6 23 Oct 2021 21:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.1, -101.8
          GREEN
          		 7 24 Oct 2021 03:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.3, -102
          GREEN
          		 8 24 Oct 2021 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.6, -101.7
          GREEN
          		 9 24 Oct 2021 15:00 Category 1 139 no people 390000 people 16.1, -101.7
          GREEN
          		 10 24 Oct 2021 21:00 Category 1 139 no people 430000 people 16.3, -101.7
          GREEN
          		 11 25 Oct 2021 03:00 Category 1 148 84000 people 590000 people 16.8, -101.6
          ORANGE
          		 11 25 Oct 2021 12:00 Category 2 157 280000 people 1.7 million people 17.7, -101.9
          GREEN
          		 11 26 Oct 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.7 million people 18.7, -102.3 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 11 26 Oct 2021 12:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 19.6, -102.9 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Guerrero Mexico
          Michoacan Mexico

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Lazaro Cardenas LZC 12 Civ. Paved No 4900
          El Infiernillo 511 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Lazaro Cardenas MXLZC Mexico

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Jose M. Morelos Balsas 1968
          Inhernillo El Infiernillo Balsas 1963
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.5 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Melchor Ocampo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 25 Oct 2021 10:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (9 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 24 Oct 2021 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          25 Oct 2021 10:00 Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.5
          25 Oct 2021 11:00 Playa Azul Mexico  0.3
          25 Oct 2021 06:00 Barrio Nuevo Mexico  0.2
          25 Oct 2021 13:00 Las Pinas Mexico  0.2
          25 Oct 2021 10:00 Joluta Mexico  0.2
          25 Oct 2021 05:00 Zihuatanejo Mexico  0.1
          25 Oct 2021 15:00 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1
          25 Oct 2021 08:00 Lagunillas Mexico  0.1
          25 Oct 2021 14:00 Chula Mexico  0.1