Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for AKONI-19
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2019-09-06 15:07

WTPN32 PHNC 061600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (AKONI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (AKONI) WARNING NR 009
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 12E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 11.2N 149.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 149.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 11.2N 151.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 11.4N 153.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 12.0N 156.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 12.9N 159.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.0N 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.0N 172.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
061600Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 149.9W.
06SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (AKONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
620 NM SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 061200Z IS 13 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (JULIETTE)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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>

2019-09-06 09:36

WTPN32 PHNC 061000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (AKONI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (AKONI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 11.6N 146.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 146.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 11.5N 148.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 11.5N 150.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 11.8N 152.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.5N 155.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.4N 161.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 16.8N 168.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 18.0N 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
061000Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 147.0W.
06SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 12E (AKONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 703 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061600Z, 062200Z, 070400Z AND 071000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-05 21:56

WTPN32 PHNC 052200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (TWELVE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (TWELVE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 12.2N 144.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 144.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 12.2N 145.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.3N 147.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 12.5N 148.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 12.7N 151.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.1N 156.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.2N 163.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 17.9N 170.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
052200Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 144.7W.
05SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
768 NM SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060400Z, 061000Z, 061600Z AND 062200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-05 18:13

WTPN32 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (TWELVE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 11.9N 142.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 142.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 11.8N 144.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 11.7N 145.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 11.7N 147.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 11.8N 149.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 12.9N 154.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 14.5N 160.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.0N 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 143.2W.
05SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
855 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z
IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-05 15:00

WTPN32 PGTW 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (TWELVE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (TWELVE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 11.9N 142.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 142.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 11.8N 144.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 11.7N 145.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 11.7N 147.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 11.8N 149.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 12.9N 154.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 14.5N 160.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.0N 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 143.2W.
05SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
855 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS
8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-05 09:29

WTPN32 PHNC 051000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (TWELVE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (TWELVE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 12.1N 141.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 141.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 11.9N 143.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 11.7N 144.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 11.6N 146.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 11.7N 148.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.7N 152.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.0N 158.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.5N 165.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
051000Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 142.4W.
05SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
887 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS
8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051600Z, 052200Z, 060400Z AND 061000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-05 04:02

WTPN32 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (TWELVE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (TWELVE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 12.2N 141.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 141.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 11.8N 142.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 11.5N 143.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 11.5N 145.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 11.7N 146.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 12.5N 151.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 14.2N 156.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.1N 162.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 141.5W.
05SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
924 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050000Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND
060400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-04 22:05

WTPN32 PHNC 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 12.8N 141.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 141.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 12.3N 142.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 12.0N 143.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 11.8N 145.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 11.9N 146.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 12.7N 150.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.0N 156.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.0N 162.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
042200Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 141.5W.
04SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
911 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050400Z, 051000Z, 051600Z AND
052200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-04 21:13

WTPA43 PHFO 042110 RRA
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2...CORRECTION
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122019
1100 AM HST WED SEP 04 2019

THE EARLIER BURST OF CONVECTION OVER TD 12E HAS FADED, LEAVING A
RATHER RAGGED AND ELLIPTICAL LOOKING SYSTEM. RECENT ASCAT DATA, THE
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO, SAB, AND JTWC, AND THE
UW-CIMSS ADT ALL SUGGEST MAINTAINING THE DEPRESSION AT 25 KT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
POSITION OWING TO THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY.

THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION IS RESULTING IN AN
INITIAL MOTION OF ABOUT 255/8, AS THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED
BY RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD DUE WEST IS EXPECTED IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF
STRONGER, DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. THERE WAS A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST, SO THE OFFICIAL
TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM SHOULD START TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY
TOWARD A WEAKNESS THAT DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH
OF THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 28C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OF
12E AND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR IN THE
SHORT TERM APPEARS TO BE THE POOR ORGANIZATION AND SHAPE OF THE
CIRCULATION, AS WELL AS SOME DRY AIR IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GRADUAL

>

2019-09-04 21:11

WTPA43 PHFO 042110
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 2...Correction
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122019
1100 AM HST Wed Sep 04 2019

The earlier burst of convection over TD 12E has faded, leaving a
rather ragged and elliptical looking system. Recent ASCAT data, the
subjective intensity estimates from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT all suggest maintaining the depression at 25 kt.
It should be noted there is considerable uncertainty in the initial
position owing to the poor organization of the system currently.

The relatively shallow nature of the circulation is resulting in an
initial motion of about 255/8, as the depression is being steered
by relatively weak low level trade wind flow. Guidance is in good
agreement that a gradual turn toward due west is expected in a
couple of days, with a turn toward the west-northwest thereafter
along with an increase in speed as the system moves south of
stronger, deep subtropical ridging. There was a slight southward
shift in the consensus guidance for this forecast, so the official
track has been nudged a little to the south as well. Toward the end
of the forecast period, the system should start to move more quickly
toward a weakness that develops in the subtropical ridge north
of the Northwest Hawaiian Islands.

Sea surface temperatures are above 28C along the forecast track of
12E and shear is relatively weak. The main inhibiting factor in the
short term appears to be the poor organization and shape of the
circulation, as well as some dry air impinging on the northern
periphery of the circulation. The guidance suggests gradual
strenghtening, and the official forecast does as well assuming the
depression can overcome the inhibiting factors. The official
forecast splits the difference between the slightly more aggressive
SHIPS guidance and the somewhat less agressive dynamical model
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 12.7N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 12.3N 142.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 12.0N 143.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 11.8N 145.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 11.9N 146.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 12.7N 150.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 14.0N 156.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 16.0N 162.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

>

2019-09-04 21:09

WTPA43 PHFO 042107 RRA
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122019
1100 AM HST WED SEP 04 2019

THE EARLIER BURST OF CONVECTION OVER TD 12E HAS FADED, LEAVING A
RATHER RAGGED AND ELLIPTICAL LOOKING SYSTEM. RECENT ASCAT DATA, THE
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO, SAB, AND JTWC, AND THE
UW-CIMSS ADT ALL SUGGEST MAINTAINING THE DEPRESSION AT 25 KT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
POSITION OWING TO THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY.

THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION IS RESULTING IN AN
INITIAL MOTION OF ABOUT 255/8, AS THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED
BY RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. GUIDANCE IS AGREEMENT
THAT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD DUE WEST IS EXPECTED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS,
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN SPEED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF STRONGER, DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. THERE WAS A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST, SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS
BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM SHOULD START TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY
TOWARD A WEAKNESS THAT DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH
OF THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 28C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OF
12E AND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR IN THE
SHORT TERM APPEARS TO BE THE POOR ORGANIZATION AND SHAPE OF THE
CIRCULATION, AS WELL AS SOME DRY AIR IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GRADUAL

>

2019-09-04 21:08

WTPA43 PHFO 042107
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122019
1100 AM HST Wed Sep 04 2019

The earlier burst of convection over TD 12E has faded, leaving a
rather ragged and elliptical looking system. Recent ASCAT data, the
subjective intensity estimates from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT all suggest maintaining the depression at 25 kt.
It should be noted there is considerable uncertainty in the initial
position owing to the poor organization of the system currently.

The relatively shallow nature of the circulation is resulting in an
initial motion of about 255/8, as the depression is being steered
by relatively weak low level trade wind flow. Guidance is agreement
that a gradual turn toward due west is expected in a couple of days,
with a turn toward the west-northwest thereafter along with an
increase in speed as the system moves south of stronger, deep
subtropical ridging. There was a slight southward shift in the
consensus guidance for this forecast, so the official track has
been nudged a little to the south as well. Toward the end of the
forecast period, the system should start to move more quickly
toward a weakness that develops in the subtropical ridge north
of the Northwest Hawaiian Islands.

Sea surface temperatures are above 28C along the forecast track of
12E and shear is relatively weak. The main inhibiting factor in the
short term appears to be the poor organization and shape of the
circulation, as well as some dry air impinging on the northern
periphery of the circulation. The guidance suggests gradual
strenghtening, and the official forecast does as well assuming the
depression can overcome the inhibiting factors. The official
forecast splits the difference between the slightly more aggressive
SHIPS guidance and the somewhat less agressive dynamical model
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 12.7N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 12.3N 142.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 12.0N 143.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 11.8N 145.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 11.9N 146.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 12.7N 150.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 14.0N 156.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 16.0N 162.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

>

2019-09-04 20:49

WTPA33 PHFO 042047
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122019
1100 AM HST WED SEP 04 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED FAR SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 141.4W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1240 MI...1995 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 141.4 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15
KM/H). A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, AND THE DEPRESSION MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB (29.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER R BALLARD

>

2019-09-04 20:44

WTPA33 PHFO 042044
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122019
1100 AM HST WED SEP 04 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED FAR SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 141.4W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1240 MI...1995 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 141.4 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15
KM/H). A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, AND THE DEPRESSION MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB (29.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER R BALLARD

>

2019-09-04 20:44

WTPA23 PHFO 042042
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122019
2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 141.4W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 141.4W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 141.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 12.3N 142.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 12.0N 143.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 11.8N 145.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 11.9N 146.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.7N 150.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 14.0N 156.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 16.0N 162.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 141.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

..
FORECASTER R BALLARD

>

2019-09-04 17:05

WTPZ32 KNHC 041703 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122019
500 AM HST WED SEP 04 2019

CORRECTED WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS FOR FUTURE ADVISORIES FROM CPHC.

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS AND MOVES IMMEDIATELY INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 140.5W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 140.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM ON THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB (29.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER BEGINNING AT 11 AM HST, UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP3, WMO

>

2019-09-04 17:04

WTPZ32 KNHC 041703 CCA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122019
500 AM HST Wed Sep 04 2019

Corrected WMO and AWIPS headers for future advisories from CPHC.

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS AND MOVES IMMEDIATELY INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 140.5W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E
was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 140.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
general westward motion at a similar or slightly slower forward
speed is anticipated for the next two to three days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast and the system could become a tropical
storm on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 11 AM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP3, WMO
header WTPA33 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the
web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-04 17:04

WTPZ22 KNHC 041701 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122019
1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

CORRECTED WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS FOR FUTURE ADVISORIES FROM CPHC.

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 140.5W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 140.5W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 140.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 12.8N 141.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 12.6N 143.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 12.6N 144.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.6N 145.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 13.2N 148.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 14.5N 154.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 16.0N 161.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 140.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

>

2019-09-04 17:03

WTPZ22 KNHC 041701 CCA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122019
1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

CORRECTED WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS FOR FUTURE ADVISORIES FROM CPHC.

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 140.5W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 140.5W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 140.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 12.8N 141.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 12.6N 143.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 12.6N 144.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.6N 145.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 13.2N 148.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 14.5N 154.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 16.0N 161.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 140.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP3...WMO
HEADER WTPA23 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-04 16:05

WTPN32 PHNC 041600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041321ZSEP2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 13.5N 140.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 140.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 12.8N 141.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 12.6N 143.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 12.6N 144.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 12.6N 145.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.2N 148.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 14.5N 154.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.0N 161.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
041600Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 140.6W.
04SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
944 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041200Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND
051600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REFA (WTPN21 PGTW 041330).//
NNNN

>

2019-09-04 14:45

WTPZ42 KNHC 041443 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122019
500 AM HST WED SEP 04 2019

A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEVELOPED LATE
YESTERDAY AND EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. BEGINNING AROUND 0600 UTC, A LARGE INCREASE
IN CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITH THE LOW, AND CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED
TO INCREASE SINCE THEN. AMSR-2 IMAGERY AT 1030 UTC SHOWED THAT THE
CONVECTION IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED IN BANDS, ENOUGH TO DESIGNATE
THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ADVISORIES HAVE THEREFORE BEEN
INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
THE DEPRESSION IS 25 KT, BASED ON ASCAT DATA FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE EXPLICIT LOW POSITIONS
IN THE GFS, ECMWF, AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS. ALL OF THESE MODELS
FORECAST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 3 DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST, STEERED
PRIMARILY BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE IN THOSE MODELS
REGARDING THE SPEED AT WHICH THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE WEST, AND THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE LARGEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE LOW FOR THIS INITIAL
ADVISORY, BUT HOPEFULLY WILL INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE LOCATED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST SLOW STRENGTHENING. IN FACT, THE GFS, SHIPS AND
ECMWF-BASED SHIPS MODELS ALL CALL FOR STRENGTHENING AT VARYING

>

2019-09-04 14:45

WTPZ42 KNHC 041443
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122019
500 AM HST Wed Sep 04 2019

A small well-defined low pressure system quickly developed late
yesterday and early this morning over the far western portion of the
eastern North Pacific. Beginning around 0600 UTC, a large increase
in convection was noted with the low, and convection has continued
to increase since then. AMSR-2 imagery at 1030 UTC showed that the
convection is fairly well organized in bands, enough to designate
the system as a tropical cyclone. Advisories have therefore been
initiated on Tropical Depression Twelve-E. The initial intensity of
the depression is 25 kt, based on ASCAT data from early this
morning.

The track forecast is based on a blend of the explicit low positions
in the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models. All of these models
forecast that the depression will move generally westward for the
next 3 days, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest, steered
primarily by a low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of the
depression. There is a fair amount of difference in those models
regarding the speed at which the depression will move west, and this
appears to be the largest source of uncertainty in the forecast.
The confidence in the track forecast is quite low for this initial
advisory, but hopefully will increase with subsequent forecasts.

The depression appears to be located within an environment that will
support at least slow strengthening. In fact, the GFS, SHIPS and
ECMWF-based SHIPS models all call for strengthening at varying
rates. Strong shear to the north and northwest of the depression
could be a limiting factor in a few days, especially if the
depression moves farther north than currently expected. The NHC
forecast accordingly calls for slow strengthening through 96 h. More
intensity guidance will be available with the next advisory, and
users should keep in mind that large changes may be required to the
intensity forecast based on that guidance. Confidence in this
aspect of the forecast is also lower than usual.

This system has moved into the Central Pacific basin and subsequent
advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 13.2N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 12.8N 141.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 12.6N 143.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 12.6N 144.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 12.6N 145.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 13.2N 148.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 14.5N 154.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 16.0N 161.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-04 14:44

WTPZ32 KNHC 041442
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122019
500 AM HST WED SEP 04 2019

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS AND MOVES IMMEDIATELY INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 140.5W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 140.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM ON THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB (29.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER BEGINNING AT 11 AM HST, UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP2, WMO
HEADER WTPA32 PHFO. PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE ON THE
WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-04 14:44

WTPZ22 KNHC 041442 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122019
1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 140.5W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 140.5W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 140.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 12.8N 141.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 12.6N 143.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 12.6N 144.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.6N 145.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 13.2N 148.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 14.5N 154.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 16.0N 161.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 140.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE

>

2019-09-04 14:43

WTPZ22 KNHC 041442
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122019
1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 140.5W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 140.5W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 140.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 12.8N 141.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 12.6N 143.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 12.6N 144.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.6N 145.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 13.2N 148.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 14.5N 154.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 16.0N 161.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 140.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP2...WMO
HEADER WTPA22 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>