Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for NIVAR-20
in India

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NIVAR-20 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries India
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 94 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (26 Nov 01:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 94 km/h 0.3 m 26 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 144 km/h 0.5 m 787 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

144 km/h

Up to 3.7 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Nov 2020 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormIndia3694352 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 23 Nov 2020 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 23 Nov 2020 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 24 Nov 2020 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 24 Nov 2020 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 24 Nov 2020 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 24 Nov 2020 18:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 25 Nov 2020 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 25 Nov 2020 06:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 25 Nov 2020 12:00 144 -
- - - - - India
GREEN 10 25 Nov 2020 18:00 112 -
- - - - - India
GREEN 11 26 Nov 2020 00:00 94 -
- - - - - India




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Nov 2020 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndia589204 
100-250 mmIndia16400951 
50-100 mmIndia27062412 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 23 Nov 2020 12:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 23 Nov 2020 18:00 21 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 24 Nov 2020 00:00 23 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 24 Nov 2020 06:00 21 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 24 Nov 2020 12:00 24 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 24 Nov 2020 18:00 32 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 25 Nov 2020 00:00 33 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 25 Nov 2020 06:00 31 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 25 Nov 2020 12:00 40 870 thousand - - - - - - India
Blue 10 25 Nov 2020 18:00 31 8.7 million - - - - - - India
Blue 11 26 Nov 2020 00:00 305 17 million
- - - India




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Durgarajupatnam, India. This height is estimated for 26 Nov 2020 01:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 26 Nov 2020 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
26 Nov 2020 01:15 Durgarajupatnam India  0.3
26 Nov 2020 00:00 Kuvattur India  0.2
26 Nov 2020 03:45 Chakicherla India  0.2
26 Nov 2020 03:45 Vatturupallepalem India  0.2
26 Nov 2020 04:00 Ullapalem India  0.2
26 Nov 2020 04:00 Pakala India  0.2
26 Nov 2020 03:00 Govundlapalem India  0.2
26 Nov 2020 00:15 Kelambakkam India  0.2
26 Nov 2020 00:15 Saint Thomas Mount India  0.2
26 Nov 2020 00:15 Madhavaram India  0.2
26 Nov 2020 02:15 Chennai India  0.2
26 Nov 2020 03:15 Kodur India  0.2
26 Nov 2020 00:15 Mahabalipuram India  0.2
26 Nov 2020 02:00 Tiruvottiyur India  0.2
26 Nov 2020 02:00 Idaikkadu Sri Lanka  0.2
26 Nov 2020 02:00 Kavutarimunai Sri Lanka  0.2
26 Nov 2020 02:00 Pooneryn Sri Lanka  0.2
26 Nov 2020 02:00 Ampan Sri Lanka  0.2
26 Nov 2020 04:30 Aliavalai Sri Lanka  0.2
26 Nov 2020 00:00 Marakkanam India  0.2
26 Nov 2020 02:30 Ennore India  0.2
26 Nov 2020 00:00 Talaimannar Sri Lanka  0.2
26 Nov 2020 00:00 Chiruttoppu Sri Lanka  0.2
26 Nov 2020 00:00 Mannar Sri Lanka  0.2
26 Nov 2020 10:00 Nawaladi Sri Lanka  0.2
26 Nov 2020 03:45 Kottapatnam India  0.2
26 Nov 2020 01:30 Jaffna Sri Lanka  0.2
26 Nov 2020 03:15 Therunattam India  0.2
26 Nov 2020 00:00 Periyavilankuli Sri Lanka  0.2
26 Nov 2020 13:00 Kakinada India  0.1
26 Nov 2020 10:15 Peddapatnam India  0.1
26 Nov 2020 00:00 Silavatturai Sri Lanka  0.1
27 Nov 2020 17:00 Devipatam India  0.1
27 Nov 2020 17:00 Muttupettai India  0.1
27 Nov 2020 17:00 Tirupalakudi India  0.1
27 Nov 2020 17:00 Panalkkulam India  0.1
27 Nov 2020 17:00 Irumeni India  0.1
28 Nov 2020 06:00 Satabhaya India  0.1
26 Nov 2020 05:00 Salaya India  0.1
26 Nov 2020 05:00 Jhankhar India  0.1
26 Nov 2020 05:00 Sika India  0.1
26 Nov 2020 00:00 Kalapettai India  0.1
26 Nov 2020 03:45 Vedaranyam India  0.1
26 Nov 2020 03:45 Vedaranniyam India  0.1
26 Nov 2020 00:15 Anaippapan Sri Lanka  0.1
26 Nov 2020 00:45 Kiranchi Sri Lanka  0.1
26 Nov 2020 00:00 Kurichchikadu Sri Lanka  0.1
26 Nov 2020 00:00 Kayts Sri Lanka  0.1
28 Nov 2020 13:30 Bamnia Bangladesh  0.1
28 Nov 2020 13:30 Munshir Hat Bangladesh  0.1
28 Nov 2020 13:30 Tulatali Bangladesh  0.1
28 Nov 2020 13:30 Char Fakura Bangladesh  0.1
28 Nov 2020 13:30 Char Chandia Bangladesh  0.1
28 Nov 2020 13:30 Akbar Hat Bangladesh  0.1
28 Nov 2020 13:30 Banskhali Bangladesh  0.1
28 Nov 2020 13:30 Dhalapara Bangladesh  0.1
28 Nov 2020 13:30 Bariakhali Bangladesh  0.1
28 Nov 2020 13:30 Charparbati Bangladesh  0.1
28 Nov 2020 13:30 Bara Ahmadpur Bangladesh  0.1
28 Nov 2020 13:30 Char Kalidas Bangladesh  0.1
28 Nov 2020 06:15 Bideipur India  0.1
28 Nov 2020 13:30 Jafarnagar Bangladesh  0.1
28 Nov 2020 13:30 Barabkunda Bangladesh  0.1
28 Nov 2020 13:30 Bansbaria Bangladesh  0.1
28 Nov 2020 13:30 Sandwip Bangladesh  0.1
26 Nov 2020 00:00 Pamban India  0.1
26 Nov 2020 00:00 Rameswaram India  0.1
28 Nov 2020 13:15 Kumira Bangladesh  0.1
26 Nov 2020 02:45 Cuddalore India  0.1
26 Nov 2020 02:45 Purnankuppam India  0.1
26 Nov 2020 02:45 Pondicherry India  0.1
26 Nov 2020 08:15 Nizampatam India  0.1